EP3710958A1 - Réduction de l'incertitude épistemique à l'aide de simulations, de modèles et d'échange de données - Google Patents

Réduction de l'incertitude épistemique à l'aide de simulations, de modèles et d'échange de données

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Publication number
EP3710958A1
EP3710958A1 EP18878344.3A EP18878344A EP3710958A1 EP 3710958 A1 EP3710958 A1 EP 3710958A1 EP 18878344 A EP18878344 A EP 18878344A EP 3710958 A1 EP3710958 A1 EP 3710958A1
Authority
EP
European Patent Office
Prior art keywords
data
transformation
pipeline
initial conditions
processor
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Withdrawn
Application number
EP18878344.3A
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German (de)
English (en)
Other versions
EP3710958A4 (fr
Inventor
Jason Crabtree
Andrew Sellers
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
Qomplx Inc
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Qomplx Inc
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Filing date
Publication date
Priority claimed from US15/813,097 external-priority patent/US20180165587A1/en
Application filed by Qomplx Inc filed Critical Qomplx Inc
Publication of EP3710958A1 publication Critical patent/EP3710958A1/fr
Publication of EP3710958A4 publication Critical patent/EP3710958A4/fr
Withdrawn legal-status Critical Current

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0633—Workflow analysis
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
    • G06F30/20—Design optimisation, verification or simulation

Definitions

  • the present invention is in the field of analysis of very large data sets using distributed computational graph tools which allow for transformation of data through both linear and non linear transformation pipelines.
  • the inventor has developed a system and method for epistemic uncertainty reduction using simulations, models and data exchange to model compare simulated outcomes to real- world outcomes and refine simulated scenario initial conditions to reduce uncertainty in outcomes and approach a causal limit, where causal drivers that influence system outcomes can be pinpointed.
  • the aspects described herein provide a system and methods for operating an outcome modeling engine that incorporates a wide range of input data from various sources including (but not limited to) scientific advances in data analytics, agent-based modeling, discrete event simulation, and the mathematics of entropy to aid in making better decisions about real-world socio-technical systems. This is facilitated by utilizing a range of descriptive statistics, inferential statistics, heuristics, and generative modeling (both agent-based and using dynamical systems representations).
  • the outcome modeling engine thereby provides a reduction of epistemic uncertainty.
  • the ability to ultimately identify causal linkages via blended simulation/modeling, empirical observations with analytics, and dynamical systems modeling offers profound promise for diverse applications ranging from finance, infrastmcture operations, to social sciences.
  • a system for epistemic uncertainty reduction using simulations, models and data exchange comprising: a parametric evaluator comprising a processor, a memory, and a plurality of programming instructions stored in the memory and operating on the processor, wherein the programming instructions, when operating on the processor, cause the processor to: receive a plurality of input data values from external data sources; compile at least a portion of the plurality of input data values into a list of initial conditions; provide at least a portion of the initial conditions to a rules management engine; a rules management engine comprising a processor, a memory, and a plurality of programming instructions stored in the memory and operating on the processor, wherein the programming instructions, when operating on the processor, cause the processor to: receive a plurality of initial conditions from the parametric evaluator; compare at least a portion of the initial conditions against a plurality of stored configuration rules; define a scenario model using a model definition language and based at least in part on at least a portion of the initial conditions and the results
  • a method for epistemic uncertainty reduction using simulations, models and data exchange comprising the steps of: receiving, at a parametric evaluator, a plurality of input data values from a plurality of external data sources; compiling a list of initial conditions based at least in part on at least a portion of the input data values;
  • a rules management engine providing at least a portion of the initial conditions to a rules management engine; comparing, at the rules management engine, at least a portion of the initial conditions against a plurality of stored configuration rules; defining a scenario model using a model definition language and based at least in part on at least a portion of the initial conditions and the results of the comparison; executing a simulated scenario using the scenario model; and producing a scenario outcome based on the execution results, is disclosed.
  • FIG. 1 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a system for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph, according to one aspect.
  • FIG. 2 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a system for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph, according to one aspect.
  • FIG. 3 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a system for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph, according to one aspect.
  • FIG. 4 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a system for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph, according to one aspect.
  • FIG. 5 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a system where streams of input data from one or more of a plurality of sources are analyzed to predict outcomes using both batch analysis of acquired data and transformation pipeline manipulation of current streaming data according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 6 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a linear transformation pipeline system which introduces the concept of the transformation pipeline as a directed graph of transformation nodes and messages according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 7 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a transformation pipeline system where one of the transformations receives input from more than one source which introduces the concept of the transformation pipeline as a directed graph of transformation nodes and messages according to one aspect.
  • FIG. 8 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a transformation pipeline system where the output of one data transformation servers as the input of more than one downstream transformations which introduces the concept of the transformation pipeline as a directed graph of transformation nodes and messages according to one aspect.
  • FIG. 9 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a transformation pipeline system where a set of three data transformations act to form a cyclical pipeline which also introduces the concept of the transformation pipeline as a directed graph of transformation nodes and messages according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 10 is a process flow diagram of a method for the receipt, processing and predictive analysis of streaming data according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 11 is a process flow diagram of a method for representing the operation of the transformation pipeline as a directed graph function according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 12 is a process flow diagram of a method for a linear data transformation pipeline according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 13 is a process flow diagram of a method for the disposition of input from two antecedent data transformations into a single data transformation of transformation pipeline according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 14 is a process flow diagram of a method for the disposition of output of one data transformation that then serves as input to two posdiminary data transformations according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 15 is a process flow diagram of a method for processing a set of three or more data transformations within a data transformation pipeline where output of the last member transformation of the set serves as input of the first member transformation thereby creating a cyclical relationship according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 16 is a process flow diagram of a method for the receipt and use of streaming data into batch storage and analysis of changes over time, repetition of specific data sequences or the presence of critical data points according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 17 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph, according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 18 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph, according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 19 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph, according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 20 is a block diagram of an exemplary system architecture for epistemic uncertainty reduction using a distributed computational graph and an outcome modeling engine, according to one aspect.
  • Fig. 21 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method for epistemic uncertainty reduction using a distributed computational graph and an outcome modeling engine, illustrating the simulation of scenario outcomes, according to an aspect.
  • Fig. 22 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method for epistemic uncertainty reduction using a distributed computational graph and an outcome modeling engine, illustrating a circular operation where simulation outcomes are provided to the DCG for comparison against real-world outcomes, according to an aspect.
  • Fig. 23 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method for epistemic uncertainty reduction using a distributed computational graph and an outcome modeling engine, illustrating a circular operation wherein the results of comparison of simulation outcomes against real-world outcomes are used to direct the simulation of new scenarios, according to an aspect.
  • Fig. 24 is a block diagram of an exemplary system architecture for epistemic uncertainty reduction, illustrating the use of simulation data to test hypothetical outcomes.
  • Fig. 25 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method for epistemic uncertainty reduction using simulation data to test hypothetical outcomes.
  • Fig. 26 is a block diagram illustrating an exemplary hardware architecture of a computing device.
  • Fig. 27 is a block diagram illustrating an exemplary logical architecture for a client device.
  • Fig. 28 is a block diagram showing an exemplary architectural arrangement of clients, servers, and external services.
  • Fig. 29 is another block diagram illustrating an exemplary hardware architecture of a computing device.
  • the inventor has conceived, and reduced to practice, system for epistemic uncertainty reduction using simulations, models and data exchange to model compare simulated outcomes to real-world outcomes and refine simulated scenario initial conditions to reduce uncertainty in outcomes and approach a causal limit, where causal drivers that influence system outcomes can be pinpointed.
  • Devices that are in communication with each other need not be in continuous communication with each other, unless expressly specified otherwise.
  • devices that are in communication with each other may communicate directly or indirecdy through one or more communication means or intermediaries, logical or physical.
  • steps may be performed simultaneously despite being described or implied as occurring non- simultaneously (e.g., because one step is described after the other step).
  • the illustration of a process by its depiction in a drawing does not imply that the illustrated process is exclusive of other variations and modifications thereto, does not imply that the illustrated process or any of its steps are necessary to one or more of the aspects, and does not imply that the illustrated process is preferred.
  • steps are generally described once per aspect, but this does not mean they must occur once, or that they may only occur once each time a process, method, or algorithm is carried out or executed. Some steps may be omitted in some aspects or some occurrences, or some steps may be executed more than once in a given aspect or occurrence.
  • An example of aleatory uncertainty can be expressed as a hypothetical experiment wherein an arrow is fired from a mechanical bow multiple times in exactly the same way. Due to random variations in atmospheric conditions, vibrations of the arrow shaft, and other unknown factors, the point of impact will vary slightly with each shot, despite identical controllable initial conditions.
  • Epistemic uncertainty also called“systemic uncertainty” refers to unknown factors that can be known or predicted given the proper information, and thus can be accounted for in simulated scenarios to reduce variation in outcomes and arrive at an optimal result for any given set of input data.
  • An example of epistemic uncertainty would be the effect of air resistance on a falling object; the rate of acceleration of an object falling on Earth is generally expressed as a fixed acceleration when in fact it varies slightly on a per-object basis due in part to the air resistance encountered.
  • the air resistance is an example of epistemic uncertainty, in that it is data that can be known but is not necessarily considered in the scenario model.
  • “graph” is a representation of information and relationships, where each primary unit of information makes up a“node” or“vertex” of the graph and the relationship between two nodes makes up an edge of the graph.
  • the concept of“node” as used herein can be quite general; nodes are elements of a workflow that produce data output (or other side effects to include internal data changes), and nodes may be for example (but not limited to) data stores that are queried or transformations that return the result of arbitrary operations over input data. Nodes can be further qualified by the connection of one or more descriptors or“properties” to that node.
  • qualifying properties might be“183 cm tall”,“DOB 08/13/1965” and“speaks English”. Similar to the use of properties to further describe the information in a node, a relationship between two nodes that forms an edge can be qualified using a“label”.
  • transformation graphs which are highly variable in size and node, edge composition as the system processes data streams.
  • transformation graph may assume many shapes and sizes with a vast topography of edge relationships. The examples given were chosen for illustrative purposes only and represent a small number of the simplest of possibilities. These examples should not be taken to define the possible graphs expected as part of operation of the invention.
  • transformation is a function performed on zero or more streams of input data which results in a single stream of output which may or may not then be used as input for another transformation. Transformations may comprise any combination of machine, human or machine-human interactions Transformations need not change data that enters them, one example of this type of transformation would be a storage transformation which would receive input and then act as a queue for that data for subsequent transformations. As implied above, a specific transformation may generate output data in the absence of input data. A time stamp serves as an example. In the invention, transformations are placed into pipelines such that the output of one transformation may serve as an input for another. These pipelines can consist of two or more transformations with the number of transformations limited only by the resources of the system.
  • transformation pipelines have been linear with each transformation in the pipeline receiving input from one antecedent and providing output to one subsequent with no branching or iteration.
  • Other pipeline configurations are possible.
  • the invention is designed to permit several of these configurations including, but not limited to: linear, afferent branch, efferent branch and cyclical.
  • A“database” or“data storage subsystem” (these terms may be considered substantially synonymous), as used herein, is a system adapted for the long-term storage, indexing, and retrieval of data, the retrieval typically being via some sort of querying interface or language.
  • “Database” may be used to refer to relational database management systems known in the art, but should not be considered to be limited to such systems.
  • Many alternative database or data storage system technologies have been, and indeed are being, introduced in the art, including but not limited to distributed non-relational data storage systems such as Hadoop, column- oriented databases, in-memory databases, and the like.
  • any data storage architecture may be used according to the aspects.
  • one or more particular data storage needs are described as being satisfied by separate components (for example, an expanded private capital markets database and a configuration database), these descriptions refer to functional uses of data storage systems and do not refer to their physical architecture.
  • any group of data storage systems of databases referred to herein may be included together in a single database management system operating on a single machine, or they may be included in a single database management system operating on a cluster of machines as is known in the art.
  • any single database (such as an expanded private capital markets database) may be implemented on a single machine, on a set of machines using clustering technology, on several machines connected by one or more messaging systems known in the art, or in a master/slave arrangement common in the art.
  • A“data context”, as used herein, refers to a set of arguments identifying the location of data. This could be a Rabbit queue, a .csv file in cloud-based storage, or any other such location reference except a single event or record. Activities may pass either events or data contexts to each other for processing. The nature of a pipeline allows for direct information passing between activities, and data locations or files do not need to be predetermined at pipeline start.
  • Each batch activity may contain a “source” data context (this may be a streaming context if the upstream activities are streaming), and a“destination” data context (which is passed to the next activity).
  • Streaming activities may have an optional“destination” streaming data context (optional meaning: caching/persistence of events vs. ephemeral), though this should not be part of the initial implementation.
  • Fig. 20 is a block diagram of an exemplary system architecture 2000 for epistemic uncertainty reduction using a distributed computational graph 100 and an outcome modeling engine 2010, according to one aspect.
  • a variety of input data sources 510 may provide data for use in transformation pipelines by a distributed computation graph (DCG) 100, as described below in Figs. 5-19.
  • input data sources 510 may be a variety of data sources which may include but are not limited to the Internet 511, arrays of physical sensors 512, database servers 513, electronic monitoring equipment 514 and direct human interaction 515 ranging from a relatively few number of participants to a large crowd sourcing campaign.
  • Streaming data from any combinations of listed sources and those not listed may also be expected to occur as part of the operation of the invention as the number of streaming input sources is not limited by the design. All incoming streaming data may be passed through a data filter software module 520 to remove information that has been damaged in transit, is misconfigured, or is malformed in some way that precludes use.
  • data may be provided to a DCG 100 for processing through a plurality of transformation pipelines, to correlate real-world scenario conditions with outcomes and then determine initial conditions for scenarios to be simulated to predict future outcomes.
  • Simulation conditions may then be sent to an outcome modeling engine 2010 for use in simulating scenarios using the provided conditions and then producing a simulated outcome that may then be provided to the data filter module 520 for use as predictions of real-world outcomes in scenarios with similar starting conditions.
  • predicted outcomes may be compared against real-world recorded outcomes using the DCG 100, removing epistemic uncertainty through the collecting and analysis of data over time and thus narrowing the confidence interval of predictions and improving the simulation results to more accurately predict outcomes.
  • Outcome modeling engine 2010 may comprise a parametric evaluator 2011 to receive a plurality of vector descriptions (i.e. model/data set combination submissions) and compile a list of results according to various factors such as, for example, model bias and performance for in- and out-of-sample as represented by various internal facts like phase, lag/lead, topology, CORA, volatility or the ultimate error associated with a model, which can be defined by an arbitrary number of such factors within one or more time periods.
  • a parametric evaluator 2011 to receive a plurality of vector descriptions (i.e. model/data set combination submissions) and compile a list of results according to various factors such as, for example, model bias and performance for in- and out-of-sample as represented by various internal facts like phase, lag/lead, topology, CORA, volatility or the ultimate error associated with a model, which can be defined by an arbitrary number of such factors within one or more time periods.
  • Parametric evaluator 2011 may also utilize a classification step (such as data clustering) against similar submissions that may be connected to a model trained from periodic evaluation of stored historical model runs that may have utility, such as in support of reducing required runs for select vectors, which may be estimable from other knowledge, such as through transfer learning.
  • a classification step such as data clustering
  • An optimizer 2012 may be optionally utilized, and may receive an individual simulation run or set of runs from the parametric evaluator and make a recommendation regarding at least one model's appropriateness or utility for at least one set of exogenous factors and/or system states.
  • An optimizer effectively recommends combinations of trained/available models for actual observed system states (e.g. when DCG calls it and passes a current system state) or hypothetical system states (e.g. when FSIM or MMOGS or other simulation engines have a system or component of a system which seeks an appropriate model for its condition and/or environment as presented to the optimizer).
  • An optimizer 2012 may optionally be used to define a set of rules pertaining to the appropriateness of at least one model and system condition for a given purpose or action, which may be expressed in a declarative formalism accessible to a rules engine 2013. In this manner, the system utilizes deep learning, transfer learning or reinforcement learning to develop an understanding of potentially-suitable or desirable individual models, groups of models, or even rules defining model appropriateness or performance (for consensus or contextual evaluation). Optimizer 2012 may also restrict or change orders of the model packages or rules combinations selected for presentation to the user to reduce dependence on mathematical monoculture in select application environments.
  • a rules engine 2013 may provide a declarative query language for a model definition language (MDL) that supports selection and validation of specific data/model vectors, conditions under which such models are applicable, observables associated with model inputs or outputs, and/or parameters represented by, or expressed within, the MDL data formalism.
  • MDL model definition language
  • Rules engine 2013 allows for the evaluation of specific elements of a given instance of a model or plurality of models given any definition of current or future state. Rules engine 2013 thus addresses the need for an actor in the real or a simulated world to request not only a forecasted value or values, a model, or a group of models given only information about the system requesting its forecast and/or the state of the environment under which the model is currendy residing.
  • Rules engine 2013 capabilities may include, but are not limited to, validation of model definition language or system-state description in a request, verification of whether a request (for example, a model uuid or a forecasted value or values) is allowed or appropriate based on the intended use or confidence requirements specified in the request, and evaluation of model-specific terms and requirements as specified in user-defined underwriting guidelines configured in the system.
  • the outcome of a given rules engine evaluation scheme is a forward chaining deduction of truth amassed from a set of antecedents derived from the MDL for a given application or purpose. This deduction continues until a fixed point or until a deduced fact of“resubmit”, “model not suitable” (no valid model available for use), or“refer/escalate model or forecast request”.
  • a default setting may commonly be resubmit, representing an incomplete MDL (which cannot be fulfilled since data may be missing or insufficient data may be present to train or execute).
  • Configurable logic may also optionally support automatic rejection, meaning resubmission need not be handled or directed by rules engine 2013 and can be forced to a client- side process to attempt again.
  • this system effectively supports layered“batteries” of tests, where functional decomposition of rules supports higher degrees of user productivity and rules re-use. This may be accomplished via aggregation (for example, rules for models may be context-specific for line of business or for a risk level based on their intended application or consequence) that may themselves be chained together to form a comprehensive model selection and appropriateness engine (such as legal or regulatory restrictions, for example for
  • a rules engine determination of“no” may be limited to conditions where a downstream human or
  • recommendation is not empowered to override, for example in cases where a request for a model is definitively not allowed as a result of legal, regulatory, or license restrictions.
  • A“refer” result may be used to cover cases where rules (e.g. errors) may violate technical guidelines but such a model is legal/appropriate and can be applied with caution.
  • Shannon s entropy can be used to measure the average information content of a given space, but single-model information contents allow for gauging information transfer into a decision-process for a single combination of data/algorithm.
  • the repetitive processing of models can allow for assessment of how information is transferred or how negative information is produced.
  • Information theory demonstrates that a single observation generates two causal information sources: information content associated with the evidence, that always introduces positive information; and information content associated with the Bayes’ likelihood, that always introduces negative information.
  • the information that influences a given run of a given model (as sourced from existing data sets or optionally extended from within the exchange or marketplace) will be positive or negative. Based on this concept, it is possible to determine“transfer information” to each single concept based on this composite metric. The net result is a measurement of whether or not a hypothesis or a model increases or decreases its probability of occurrence depending on the sign of the information that arrives to it.
  • Fig. 24 is a block diagram of an exemplary system architecture 2400 for epistemic uncertainty reduction, illustrating the use of simulation data to test hypothetical outcomes.
  • a plurality of simulation engines 2410 for example, simulations designed to model real-world scenarios or simulated scenarios such as for virtual or augmented reality applications
  • massively-multiplayer online games (MMOGs) 2420 may be used to provide simulated data for use in transformation pipelines by a distributed computation graph (DCG) 100, as described below in Figs. 5-19.
  • DCG distributed computation graph
  • simulated data may be used to run simulated scenarios and test hypothetical outcomes, without needing real-world data or without necessarily correlating simulation or outcome data to real-world scenarios or events.
  • This simulation-driven operation may be used, for example, to train operation using large simulated data sets to ensure reliability before using real-world data to perform live outcome modeling.
  • Streaming data from any combinations of listed sources and those not listed may also be expected to occur as part of the operation of the invention as the number of streaming input sources is not limited by the design. All incoming streaming data may be passed through a data filter software module 520 to remove information that has been damaged in transit, is misconfigured, or is malformed in some way that precludes use.
  • Fig. 1 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a system for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph 100, according to one aspect.
  • a distributed computational graph (DCG) 100 may comprise a pipeline orchestrator 101 that may be used to perform the functions of a transformation pipeline software module 561 as described below, with reference to Fig. 5.
  • Pipeline orchestrator 101 may spawn a plurality of child pipeline clusters llOa-b, which may be used as dedicated workers for streamlining parallel processing.
  • an entire data processing pipeline may be passed to a child cluster 110a for handling, rather than individual processing tasks, enabling each child cluster l lOa-b to handle an entire data pipeline in a dedicated fashion to maintain isolated processing of different pipelines using different cluster nodes l lOa-b.
  • Pipeline orchestrator 101 may provide a software API for starting, stopping, submitting, or saving pipelines. When a pipeline is started, pipeline orchestrator 101 may send the pipeline information to an available worker node llOa-b, for example using AKKATM clustering. For each pipeline initialized by pipeline orchestrator 101, a reporting object with status information may be maintained. Streaming activities may report the last time an event was processed, and the number of events processed.
  • Pipeline orchestrator 101 may perform batch caching using, for example, an IGFSTM caching filesystem. This allows activities 112a-d within a pipeline l lOa-b to pass data contexts to one another, with any necessary parameter configurations.
  • IGFSTM caching filesystem This allows activities 112a-d within a pipeline l lOa-b to pass data contexts to one another, with any necessary parameter configurations.
  • a pipeline manager l lla-b may be spawned for every new running pipeline, and may be used to send activity, status, lifecycle, and event count information to the pipeline orchestrator 101.
  • a plurality of activity actors 112a-d may be created by a pipeline manager l lla-b to handle individual tasks, and provide output to data services 120a-d, optionally using a client API 130 for integration with external services or products.
  • Data models used in a given pipeline may be determined by the specific pipeline and activities, as directed by a pipeline manager l lla-b.
  • Each pipeline manager l lla-b controls and directs the operation of any activity actors 112a-d spawned by it.
  • a service-specific client API 130 is separated from any particular activity actor 112a-d and may be handled by a dedicated service actor in a separate cluster.
  • a pipeline process may need to coordinate streaming data between tasks.
  • a pipeline manager l lla-b may spawn service connectors to dynamically create TCP connections between activity instances 112a-d.
  • Data contexts may be maintained for each individual activity 112a-d, and may be cached for provision to other activities 112a-d as needed.
  • a data context defines how an activity accesses information, and an activity 112a-d may process data or simply forward it to a next step. Forwarding data between pipeline steps may route data through a streaming context or batch context.
  • a client service cluster 130 may operate a plurality of service actors 221 a-d to serve the requests of activity actors 112a-d, ideally maintaining enough service actors 221a-d to support each activity per the service type. These may also be arranged within service clusters 220a-d, in an alternate arrangement described below in Fig. 2.
  • Fig. 2 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a system for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph 100, according to one aspect.
  • a DCG 100 may be used with a messaging system 210 that enables communication with any number of various services and protocols, relaying messages and translating them as needed into protocol-specific API system calls for interoperability with external systems (rather than requiring a particular protocol or service to be integrated into a DCG 100).
  • Service actors 221a-d may be logically grouped into service clusters 220a-d, in a manner similar to the logical organization of activity actors 112a-d within clusters l lOa-b in a data pipeline.
  • a logging service 230 may be used to log and sample DCG requests and messages during operation while notification service 240 may be used to receive alerts and other notifications during operation (for example to alert on errors, which may then be diagnosed by reviewing records from logging service 230), and by being connected externally to messaging system 210, logging and notification services can be added, removed, or modified during operation without impacting DCG 100.
  • a plurality of DCG protocols 250a-b may be used to provide structured messaging between a DCG 100 and messaging system 210, or to enable messaging system 210 to distribute DCG messages across service clusters 220a-d as shown.
  • a service protocol 260 may be used to define service interactions so that a DCG 100 may be modified without impacting service implementations. In this manner, it can be appreciated that the overall structure of a system using an actor-driven DCG 100 operates in a modular fashion, enabling modification and substitution of various components without impacting other operations or requiring additional reconfiguration.
  • Fig. 3 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a system for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph 100, according to one aspect.
  • a variant messaging arrangement may utilize messaging system 210 as a messaging broker using a streaming protocol 310, transmitting and receiving messages immediately using messaging system 210 as a message broker to bridge communication between service actors 221a-b as needed.
  • individual services 120a-b may be utilized as a messaging broker using a streaming protocol 310, transmitting and receiving messages immediately using messaging system 210 as a message broker to bridge communication between service actors 221a-b as needed.
  • individual services 120a-b may
  • a batch context 320 communicate direcdy in a batch context 320, using a data context service 330 as a broker to batch-process and relay messages between services 120a-b.
  • Fig. 4 is a diagram of an exemplary architecture for a system for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph 100, according to one aspect.
  • a variant messaging arrangement may utilize a service connector 410 as a central message broker between a plurality of service actors 221a-b, bridging messages in a streaming context 310 while a data context service 330 continues to provide direct peer-to-peer messaging between individual services 120a-b in a batch context 320.
  • Fig. 5 is a block diagram of an exemplary architecture for a system 500 for predictive analysis of very large data sets using a distributed computational graph.
  • streaming input feeds 510 may be a variety of data sources which may include but are not limited to the internet 511, arrays of physical sensors 512, database servers 513, electronic monitoring equipment 514 and direct human interaction 515 ranging from a relatively few number of participants to a large crowd sourcing campaign. Streaming data from any combinations of listed sources and those not listed may also be expected to occur as part of the operation of the invention as the number of streaming input sources is not limited by the design. All incoming streaming data may be passed through a data filter software module 520 to remove information that has been damaged in transit, is misconfigured, or is malformed in some way that precludes use.
  • filter parameters may be expected to be preset prior to operation, however, design of the invention makes provision for the behavior of the filter software module 520 to be changed as progression of analysis requires through the automation of the system sanity and retrain software module 563 which may serve to optimize system operation and analysis function.
  • the data stream may also be split into two identical substreams at the data filter software module 520 with one substream being fed into a streaming analysis pathway that includes the
  • the transformation pipeline software module 561 of the distributed computational graph 560 may be fed to data formalization software module 530 as part of the batch analysis pathway.
  • the data formalization module 530 formats the data stream entering the batch analysis pathway of the invention into data records to be stored by the input event data store 540.
  • the input event data store 540 can be a database of any architectural type known to those knowledgeable in the art, but based upon the quantity of the data the data store module would be expected to store and retrieve, options using highly distributed storage and map reduce query protocols, of which Hadoop is one, but not the only example, may be generally preferable to relational database schema.
  • Analysis of data from the input event data store may be performed by the batch event analysis software module 550.
  • This module may be used to analyze the data in the input event data store for temporal information such as trends, previous occurrences of the progression of a set of events, with outcome, the occurrence of a single specific event with all events recorded before and after whether deemed relevant at the time or not, and presence of a particular event with all documented possible causative and remedial elements, including best guess probability information.
  • temporal information such as trends, previous occurrences of the progression of a set of events, with outcome, the occurrence of a single specific event with all events recorded before and after whether deemed relevant at the time or not, and presence of a particular event with all documented possible causative and remedial elements, including best guess probability information.
  • the search parameters used by the batch event analysis software module 550 are preset by those conducting the analysis at the beginning of the process, however, as the search matures and results are gleaned from the streaming data during transformation pipeline software module 561 operation, providing the system more timely event progress details, the system sanity and retrain software module 563 may automatically update the batch analysis parameters 550. Alternately, findings outside the system may precipitate the authors of the analysis to tune the batch analysis parameters administratively from outside the system 570, 562, 563.
  • the real-time data analysis core 560 of the invention should be considered made up of a transformation pipeline software module 561, messaging module 562 and system sanity and retrain software module 563.
  • the messaging module 562 has connections from both the batch and the streaming data analysis pathways and serves as a conduit for operational as well as result information between those two parts of the invention.
  • the message module also receives messages from those administering analyses 580. Messages aggregated by the messaging module 562 may then be sent to system sanity and retrain software module 563 as appropriate.
  • this is software that may be used to monitor the progress of streaming data analysis optimizing coordination between streaming and batch analysis pathways by modifying or “retraining” the operation of the data filter software module 520, data formalization software module 530 and batch event analysis software module 540 and the transformation pipeline module 550 of the streaming pathway when the specifics of the search may change due to results produced during streaming analysis.
  • System sanity and retrain module 563 may also monitor for data searches or transformations that are processing slowly or may have hung and for results that are outside established data stability boundaries so that actions can be implemented to resolve the issue.
  • While the system sanity and retrain software module 563 may be designed to act autonomously and employs computer learning algorithms, according to some arrangements status updates may be made by administrators or potentially direct changes to operational parameters by such, according to the aspect.
  • Streaming data entering from the outside data feeds 510 through the data filter software module 520 may be analyzed in real time within the transformation pipeline software module 561.
  • a set of functions tailored to the analysis being run are applied to the input data stream.
  • functions may be applied in a linear, directed path or in more complex configurations.
  • Functions may be modified over time during an analysis by the system sanity and retrain software module 563 and the results of the transformation pipeline, impacted by the results of batch analysis are then output in the format stipulated by the authors of the analysis which may be human readable printout, an alarm, machine readable information destined for another system or any of a plurality of other forms known to those in the art.
  • FIG. 6 is a block diagram of a preferred architecture for a transformation pipeline within a system for predictive analysis of very large data sets using distributed computational graph 600.
  • streaming input from the data filter software module 520, 615 serves as input to the first transformation node 620 of the transformation pipeline. Transformation node's function is performed on input data stream and transformed output message 625 is sent to transformation node 2 630.
  • the progression of transformation nodes 620, 630, 640, 650, 660 and associated output messages from each node 625, 635, 645, 655, 665 is linear in configuration this is the simplest arrangement and, as previously noted, represents the current state of the art. While transformation nodes are described according to various aspects as uniform shape (referring to Figs.
  • transformations in a pipeline may be entirely self-contained; certain transformations may involve direct human interaction 630, such as selection via dial or dials, positioning of switch or switches, or parameters set on control display, all of which may change during analysis; other transformations may require external aggregation or correlation services or may rely on remote procedure calls to synchronous or asynchronous analysis engines as might occur in simulations among a plurality of other possibilities. Further according to the aspect, individual transformation nodes in one pipeline may represent function of another transformation pipeline.
  • FIG. 7 is a block diagram of another preferred architecture for a transformation pipeline within a system for predictive analysis of very large data sets using distributed computational graph 700.
  • streaming input from a data filter software module 520, 705 serves as input to the first transformation node 710 of the transformation pipeline.
  • Each transformation node’s function 710, 720, 730, 740, 750 is performed on input data stream and transformed output message 715, 725, 735, 745, 755, 765 is sent to the next step.
  • transformation node 2 720 has a second input stream 760.
  • This input is inconsequential to the operation of the invention and could be another transformation pipeline software module, a data store, human interaction, physical sensors, monitoring equipment for other electronic systems or a stream from the internet as from a crowdsourcing campaign, just to name a few possibilities 760.
  • Functional integration of a second input stream into one transformation node requires the two input stream events be serialized.
  • the invention performs this serialization using a decomposable transformation software module (not shown), the function of which is described below, referring to Fig. 13. While transformation nodes are described according to various aspects as uniform shape (referring to Figs. 6-9), such uniformity is used for presentation simplicity and clarity and does not reflect necessary operational similarity between transformations within the pipeline.
  • transformations in a pipeline may be entirely self-contained; certain transformations may involve direct human interaction 630, such as selection via dial or dials, positioning of switch or switches, or parameters set on control display, all of which may change during analysis; other transformations may require external aggregation or correlation services or may rely on remote procedure calls to synchronous or asynchronous analysis engines as might occur in simulations among a plurality of other possibilities.
  • engines may be singletons (composed of a single activity or transformation).
  • leveraging the architecture in this way allows for versioning and functional decomposition (i.e. embedding entire saved workflows as single nodes in other workflows).
  • individual transformation nodes in one pipeline may represent function of another transformation pipeline.
  • FIG. 8 is a block diagram of another preferred architecture for a transformation pipeline within a system for predictive analysis of very large data sets using distributed computational graph 700.
  • streaming input from a data filter software module 520, 805 serves as input to the first transformation node 810 of the transformation pipeline. Transformation node's function is performed on input data stream and transformed output message 815 is sent to transformation node 2 820.
  • transformation node 2 820 sends its output stream 825, 860 to two transformation pipelines 830, 840, 850; 865, 875.
  • decomposable transformation software module (not shown), the function of which is described below, referring to Fig. 14. While transformation nodes are described according to various aspects as uniform shape (referring to Figs. 6-9), such uniformity is used for presentation simplicity and clarity and does not reflect necessary operational similarity between
  • transformations within the pipeline may involve direct human interaction 630, such as selection via dial or dials, positioning of switch or switches, or parameters set on control display, all of which may change during analysis; other transformations may require external aggregation or correlation services or may rely on remote procedure calls to synchronous or asynchronous analysis engines as might occur in simulations, among a plurality of other possibilities.
  • individual transformation nodes in one pipeline may represent function of another transformation pipeline.
  • the node number of transformation pipelines depicted in no way confines the transformation pipelines employed by the invention to an arbitrary maximum length 810, 820, 830, 840, 850; 865, 875 as, being distributed, the number of transformations would be limited by the resources made available to each implementation of the invention. Further according to the aspect, there need be no limits on transform pipeline length. Output of the last transformation node and by extension, the transform pipeline 850 may be sent back to messaging software module 562 for contemporary enabled action.
  • FIG. 9 is a block diagram of another preferred architecture for a transformation pipeline within a system for predictive analysis of very large data sets using distributed computational graph 700.
  • streaming input from a data filter software module 520, 905 serves as input to the first transformation node 910 of the transformation pipeline. Transformation node's function may be performed on an input data stream and transformed output message 915 may then be sent to transformation node 2 920.
  • transformation node 3 930 sends its output stream back 935 to transform node 1 910 forming a cyclical relationship between transformation nodes 1 910, transformation node 2 920 and transformation node 3 930.
  • the output of cyclical pipeline activity may be sent to downstream transformation nodes within the pipeline 940, 945.
  • the presence of a generalized cyclical pathway construct allows the invention to be used to solve complex iterative problems with large data sets involved, expanding ability to rapidly retrieve conclusions for complicated issues. Functional creation of a cyclical transformation pipeline requires that each cycle be serialized.
  • the invention performs this serialization using a decomposable transformation software module (not shown), the function of which is described below, referring to Fig. 15. While transformation nodes are described according to various aspects as uniform shape (referring to Figs. 6-9), such uniformity is used for presentation simplicity and clarity and does not reflect necessary operational similarity between transformations within the pipeline.
  • transformations in pipelines may be entirely self-contained; certain transformations may involve direct human interaction 630, such as selection via dial or dials, positioning of switch or switches, or parameters set on control display, all of which may change during analysis; still other transformations may require external aggregation or correlation services or may rely on remote procedure calls to synchronous or asynchronous analysis engines as might occur in simulations, among a plurality of other possibilities. Further according to the aspect, individual transformation nodes in one pipeline may represent the cumulative function of another transformation pipeline.
  • the node number of transformation pipelines depicted in no way confines the transformation pipelines employed by the invention to an arbitrary maximum length 910, 920, 930, 940, 950, 960; 965, 975 as, being distributed, the number of transformations would be limited by the resources made available to each implementation of the invention. It should be further appreciated that there need be no limits on transform pipeline length. Output of the last transformation node and by extension, the transform pipeline 955 may be sent back to messaging software module 562 for concomitant enabled action.
  • Fig. 21 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method 2100 for epistemic uncertainty reduction using a distributed computational graph 100 and an outcome modeling engine 2010, illustrating the simulation of scenario outcomes, according to an aspect.
  • an outcome modeling engine 2010 may receive input data from a plurality of various input data sources 510 (as described previously, referring to Fig. 1), that may have been optionally processed using a DCG 100 such as to perform initial transformations on the input data to ensure its suitability for use in simulated modeling.
  • input data may be processed by a parametric evaluator 2011, for example to order or cluster input data based on parametrized values.
  • Data may then 2103 optionally be checked using an optimizer to determine suitability for use, such as to recommend a particular data set for suitability for a particular model to be run.
  • Data may then 2104 be provided to a rules engine 2013 to make a final determination on suitability for any or all initial values for the model, for example to adjust for legal or regulatory restrictions or other rules-based configuration.
  • the final, optimized and rules-adjusted data values may then be used as initial conditions to run a simulated model for the scenario and determine the output based on the given starting conditions 2105.
  • Fig. 22 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method 2200 for epistemic uncertainty reduction using a distributed computational graph 100 and an outcome modeling engine 2010, illustrating a circular operation where simulation outcomes are provided to the DCG for comparison against real-world outcomes, according to an aspect.
  • input data may be received from a plurality of various input data sources 510 (as described previously, referring to Fig. 1).
  • Input data may then 2202 be processed through a DCG 100, for example to perform initial transformations on the input data to ensure its suitability for use in simulated modeling.
  • DCG 100 may then 2203 provide output data to an outcome modeling engine 2010 for use in running simulations, and outcome modeling engine 2010 may then 2204 process the data using any combination of parametric evaluator 2011, optimizer 2012, and rules engine 2013 components.
  • outcome modeling engine 2010 may then 2205 run a model simulation using the processed data as initial conditions, and may then 2206 produce output data based on the simulation results, and provide this output data to the DCG 100 for further processing and use.
  • Fig. 23 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method 2300 for epistemic uncertainty reduction using a distributed computational graph 100 and an outcome modeling engine 2010, illustrating a circular operation wherein the results of comparison of simulation outcomes against real-world outcomes are used to direct the simulation of new scenarios, according to an aspect.
  • a DCG 100 may receive output from an outcome modeling engine 2010 and utilize this output as new input data (optionally alongside newly-received input data from input data sources 510). This data may then be processed 2302 through a number of DCG data pipelines (as described previously, in Figs. 5-16), before being provided 2303 as new input data to the outcome modeling engine 2010.
  • Outcome modeling engine 2010 may then 2304 incorporate the new input data into the model’s initial conditions, optionally processing it as needed using any combination of parametric evaluator 2011, optimizer 2012, and rules engine 2013
  • Outcome modeling engine may then 2305 run a new simulation that incorporates the new initial conditions based on the DCG’s processing of previous simulation outcomes, thus facilitating a closed-loop operation wherein each successive simulation refines the initial conditions for future simulations to continually reduce uncertainty and improve outcomes.
  • Fig. 25 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method 2500 for epistemic uncertainty reduction using simulation data to test hypothetical outcomes.
  • an outcome modeling engine 2010 may receive simulated or streaming/on-demand input information from a plurality of simulation engines 2410 or MMOGs 2420 (as described previously, referring to Fig. 24), that may have been optionally processed using a DCG 100 such as to perform initial transformations on the input data to ensure its suitability for use in simulated modeling.
  • Simulated data may comprise (for example) artificial data sets for use in outcome modeling, and may be used to produce arbitrarily large or specially-crafted data sets without needing to curate real-world input, for example to produce a data set intended to train a system for a specific purpose or scenario type.
  • On-demand data may comprise any data received in a streaming manner, such as (for example) input from an MMOG comprising in-game scenarios, actions, and outcomes that may be used to model hypothetical scenarios and outcomes without requiring real- world data.
  • input data may be processed by a parametric evaluator 2011, for example to order or cluster input data based on parametrized values.
  • Data may then 2503 optionally be checked using an optimizer to determine suitability for use, such as to recommend a particular data set for suitability for a particular model to be run.
  • Data may then 2504 be provided to a rules engine 2013 to make a final determination on suitability for any or all initial values for the model, for example to adjust for legal or regulatory restrictions or other rules-based configuration.
  • the final, optimized and rules-adjusted data values may then be used as initial conditions to run a simulated model for the scenario and determine the output based on the given starting conditions 2505.
  • Fig. 17 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method 1700 for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph, according to one aspect.
  • a DCG 100 may define a plurality of data contexts for each of a plurality of actions within a data pipeline. These contexts each in turn define 1702 how their respective activities may interact with data in the pipeline. Any given activity may, based on the defined data context, either process data 1703 (generally by performing any of a number of data transformations as described previously, referring to Fig. 5), or by forwarding at least a portion of the data onward to the next step in the pipeline 1704, which may in turn be another activity with a defined context determining how it handles the forwarded data. In this manner, operation may continue in a directed fashion wherein each agent has clearly-defined capabilities and data progresses toward the end of the pipeline according to the established definitions.
  • Fig. 18 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method 1800 for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph, according to one aspect.
  • a DCG 100 defines a data context for an activity, determining how the activity handles data that is passed to it.
  • the activity then, according to the context definition, receives data and forwards it 1802 to the next step in the data pipeline.
  • the data is then 1803 passed to a messaging system 210 that acts as a central data broker, receiving the data and passing it on 1804 to the next activity actor in the pipeline, which may then have a context assigned 1801 so that operation continues as shown.
  • This allows brokered, centralized messaging between activity actors within data pipelines, using a messaging system 210 to bridge communication between different actors.
  • Fig. 19 is a process flow diagram for an exemplary method 1900 for rapid predictive analysis of very large data sets using an actor-driven distributed computational graph, according to one aspect.
  • a pipeline orchestrator 101 may spawn a plurality of service connectors 410, each of which is configured to bridge communication between two or more service actors 221a-d for peer-to-peer messaging without using a messaging system 210 as a central broker.
  • an appropriate service connector 410 may receive the data and perform any necessary interpretation or modification to bridge service protocols 1903 between the source and destination service actors 221 a-d.
  • the modified data may then be provided 1904 to the destination service actor 221a-d.
  • Service connectors may be created and destroyed as needed without impacting other operations, producing a scalable and on-the-fly peer-to-peer messaging system that does not rely on any centralized broker to relay messages and permits direct communication between actors.
  • Fig. 10 is a process flow diagram of a method 1000 for predictive analysis of very large data sets using the distributed computational graph.
  • One or more streams of data from a plurality of sources which includes, but is in no way not limited to, a number of physical sensors, web based questionnaires and surveys, monitoring of electronic infrastructure, crowd sourcing campaigns, and direct human interaction, may be received by system 1001.
  • the received stream is filtered 1002 to exclude data that has been corrupted, data that is incomplete or misconfigured and therefore unusable, data that may be intact but nonsensical within the context of the analyses being run, as well as a plurality of predetermined analysis related and unrelated criteria set by the authors.
  • Filtered data may be split into two identical streams at this point (second stream not depicted for simplicity), wherein one substream may be sent for batch processing 1600 while another substream may be formalized 1003 for transformation pipeline analysis 1004, 561, 600, 700, 800, 900 and retraining 1005.
  • Data formalization for transformation pipeline analysis acts to reformat the stream data for optimal, reliable use during analysis. Reformatting might entail, but is not limited to: setting data field order, standardizing measurement units if choices are given, splitting complex information into multiple simpler fields, and stripping unwanted characters, again, just to name a few simple examples.
  • the formalized data stream may be subjected to one or more transformations. Each transformation acts as a function on the data and may or may not change the data.
  • transformations working on the same data stream where the output of one transformation acts as the input to the next are represented as transformation pipelines. While the great majority of transformations in transformation pipelines receive a single stream of input, modify the data within the stream in some way and then pass the modified data as output to the next transformation in the pipeline, the invention does not require these characteristics.
  • individual transformations can receive input of expected form from more than one source 1300 or receive no input at all as would a transformation acting as a timestamp.
  • individual transformations may not modify the data as would be encountered with a data store acting as a queue for downstream transformations 1303, 1305, 1405, 1407,1505.
  • individual transformations may provide output to more than one downstream transformations 1400.
  • transformations in a transformation pipeline backbone may form a linear, a quasi- linear arrangement or may be cyclical 1500, where the output of one of the internal transformations serves as the input of one of its antecedents allowing recursive analysis to be run.
  • the result of transformation pipeline analysis may then be modified by results from batch analysis of the data stream 1600 and output 1006 in format predesigned by the authors of the analysis with could be human readable summary printout, human readable instruction printout, human-readable raw printout, data store, or machine encoded information of any format known to the art to be used in further automated analysis or action schema.
  • Fig. 11 is a process flow diagram of a method 1100 for an aspect of modeling the transformation pipeline module 561 of the invention as a directed graph using graph theory.
  • the individual transformations 1102, 1104, 1106 of the transformation pipeline ti..t n such that each 4 T are represented as graph nodes. Transformations belonging to T are discrete transformations over individual datasets d / , consistent with classical functions. As such, each individual transformation t j , receives a set of inputs and produces a single output.
  • the output of an individual transformation is defined as the function out: 4 [Idi] to describe transformations that produce a single output (usable by other transformations).
  • a dependency function can now be defined such that dep(t a ,t b ) out(t a )in(t b )The messages carrying the data stream through the transformation pipeline 1101,1103, 1105 make up the graph edges.
  • Fig. 12 is a process flow diagram of a method 1200 for one aspect of a linear
  • transformation pipeline 1201. This is the simplest of configurations as the input stream is acted upon by the first transformation node 1202 and the remainder of the transformations within the pipeline are then performed sequentially 1202, 1203, 1204, 1205 for the entire pipeline with no introduction of new data internal to the initial node or splitting output stream prior to last node of the pipeline 1205, which then sends the results of the pipeline 1206 as output.
  • This configuration is the current state of the art for transformation pipelines and is the most general form of these constructs.
  • Linear transformation pipelines require no special manipulation to simplify the data pathway and are thus referred to as non-decomp osable.
  • the example depicted in this diagram was chosen to convey the configuration of a linear transformation pipeline and is the simplest form of the configuration felt to show the point. It in no way implies limitation of the invention.
  • Fig. 13 is a process flow diagram of a method 1300 for one aspect of a transformation pipeline where one transformation node 1307 in a transformation pipeline receives data streams from two source transformation nodes 1301.
  • the invention handles this transformation pipeline configuration by decomposing or serializing the input events 1302-1303, 1304-1305 heavily relying on post transformation function continuation.
  • the results of individual transformation nodes 1302, 1304 just antecedent to the destination transformation node 1306 and placed into a single specialized data storage transformation node 1303, 1305 (shown twice as process occurs twice).
  • the combined results then retrieved from the data store 1306 and serve as the input stream for the transformation node within the transformation pipeline backbone 1307, 1308.
  • Fig. 14 is a process flow diagram of a method 1400 for one aspect of a transformation pipeline where one transformation node 1403 in a transformation pipeline receives input data from a transformation node 1402, and sends output data stream to two destination transformation nodes 1401, 1406, 1408 in potentially two separate transformation pipelines.
  • the invention handles this transformation pipeline configuration by decomposing or serializing the output events 1404,1405-1406, 1407-1408.
  • the results of the source transformation node 1403 just antecedent to the destination transformation nodes 1406 and placed into a single specialized data storage transformation node 1404, 1405, 1407 (shown three times as storage occurs and retrieval occurs twice).
  • the results of the antecedent transformation node may then be retrieved from a data store 1404 and serves as the input stream for the transformation nodes two downstream transformation pipeline 1406, 1408.
  • the example depicted in this diagram was chosen to convey the configuration of transformation pipelines with individual transformation nodes that send output streams to two destination nodes 1406, 1408 and is the simplest form of the configuration felt to show the point. It in no way implies limitation of the invention.
  • One knowledgeable in the art will realize the great number of permutations and topologies possible, especially as the invention places no design restrictions on the number of transformation nodes sending output to greater than one destination or the number destinations receiving input from a source node.
  • Fig. 15 is a process flow diagram of a method 1500 for one aspect of a transformation pipeline where the topology of all or part of the pipeline is cyclical 1501.
  • the output stream of one transformation node 1504 acts as an input of an antecedent transformation node within the pipeline 1502 serialization or decomposition linearizes this cyclical configuration by completing the transformation of all of the nodes that make up a single cycle 1502, 1503, 1504 and then storing the result of that cycle in a data store 1505. That result of a cycle is then reintroduced to the transformation pipeline as input 1506 to the first transformation node of the cycle.
  • this configuration is by nature recursive, special programming to unfold the recursions was developed for the invention to accommodate it.
  • Fig. 16 is a process flow diagram of a method 1600 for one aspect of the batch data stream analysis pathway which forms part of the invention and allows streaming data to be interpreted with historic context.
  • One or more streams of data from a plurality of sources which includes, but is in no way not limited to, a number of physical sensors, web based questionnaires and surveys, monitoring of electronic infrastructure, crowd sourcing campaigns, and direct human interaction, is received by the system 1601.
  • the received stream may be filtered 1602 to exclude data that has been corrupted, data that is incomplete or misconfigured and therefore unusable, data that may be intact but nonsensical within the context of the analyses being run, as well as a plurality of predetermined analysis related and unrelated criteria set by the authors.
  • Data formalization 1603 for batch analysis acts to reformat the stream data for optimal, reliable use during analysis. Reformatting might entail, but is not limited to: setting data field order, standardizing measurement units if choices are given, splitting complex information into multiple simpler fields, and stripping unwanted characters, again, just to name a few simple examples.
  • the filtered and formalized stream is then added to a distributed data store 1604 due to the vast amount of information accrued over time.
  • the invention has no dependency for specific data stores or data retrieval model.
  • data stored in the batch pathway store can be used to track changes in specifics of the data important to the ongoing analysis over time, repetitive data sets significant to the analysis or the occurrence of critical points of data 1605.
  • individual transformation nodes 620 may be saved and can be edited also all nodes of a transformation pipeline 600 keep a summary or summarized view (analogous to a network routing table) of applicable parts of the overall route of the pipeline along with detailed information pertaining to adjacent two nodes.
  • This framework information enables steps to be taken and notifications to be passed if individual transformation nodes 640 within a transformation pipeline 600 become unresponsive during analysis operations.
  • Combinations of results from the batch pathway, partial and streaming output results from the transformation pipeline, administrative directives from the authors of the analysis as well as operational status messages from components of the distributed computational graph are used to perform system sanity checks and retraining of one or more of the modules of the system 1606. These corrections are designed to occur without administrative intervention under all but the most extreme of circumstances with deep learning capabilities present as part of the system manager and retrain module 563 responsible for this task.
  • the techniques disclosed herein may be implemented on hardware or a combination of software and hardware. For example, they may be implemented in an operating system kernel, in a separate user process, in a library package bound into network applications, on a specially constructed machine, on an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), or on a network interface card.
  • ASIC application-specific integrated circuit
  • Software/hardware hybrid implementations of at least some of the aspects disclosed herein may be implemented on a programmable network-resident machine (which should be understood to include intermittently connected network-aware machines) selectively activated or reconfigured by a computer program stored in memory.
  • Such network devices may have multiple network interfaces that may be configured or designed to utilize different types of network communication protocols.
  • a general architecture for some of these machines may be described herein in order to illustrate one or more exemplary means by which a given unit of functionality may be implemented.
  • At least some of the features or functionalities of the various aspects disclosed herein may be implemented on one or more general-purpose computers associated with one or more networks, such as for example an end- user computer system, a client computer, a network server or other server system, a mobile computing device (e.g., tablet computing device, mobile phone, smartphone, laptop, or other appropriate computing device), a consumer electronic device, a music player, or any other suitable electronic device, router, switch, or other suitable device, or any combination thereof.
  • at least some of the features or functionalities of the various aspects disclosed herein may be implemented in one or more virtualized computing environments (e.g., network computing clouds, virtual machines hosted on one or more physical computing machines, or other appropriate virtual environments).
  • FIG. 26 there is shown a block diagram depicting an exemplary computing device 10 suitable for implementing at least a portion of the features or functionalities disclosed herein.
  • Computing device 10 may be, for example, any one of the computing machines listed in the previous paragraph, or indeed any other electronic device capable of executing software- or hardware-based instructions according to one or more programs stored in memory.
  • Computing device 10 may be configured to communicate with a plurality of other computing devices, such as clients or servers, over communications networks such as a wide area network a metropolitan area network, a local area network, a wireless network, the Internet, or any other network, using known protocols for such communication, whether wireless or wired.
  • communications networks such as a wide area network a metropolitan area network, a local area network, a wireless network, the Internet, or any other network, using known protocols for such communication, whether wireless or wired.
  • computing device 10 includes one or more central processing units (CPU) 12, one or more interfaces 15, and one or more busses 14 (such as a peripheral component interconnect (PCI) bus).
  • CPU central processing units
  • interfaces such as a USB interface
  • busses 14 such as a peripheral component interconnect (PCI) bus
  • CPU 12 may be responsible for implementing specific functions associated with the functions of a specifically configured computing device or machine.
  • a computing device 10 may be configured or designed to function as a server system utilizing CPU 12, local memory 11 and/or remote memory 16, and interface(s) 15.
  • CPU 12 may be caused to perform one or more of the different types of functions and/or operations under the control of software modules or components, which for example, may include an operating system and any appropriate applications software, drivers, and the like.
  • CPU 12 may include one or more processors 13 such as, for example, a processor from one of the Intel, ARM, Qualcomm, and AMD families of microprocessors.
  • processors 13 may include specially designed hardware such as application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), electrically erasable programmable read-only memories (EEPROMs), field- programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), and so forth, for controlling operations of computing device 10.
  • ASICs application-specific integrated circuits
  • EEPROMs electrically erasable programmable read-only memories
  • FPGAs field- programmable gate arrays
  • a local memory 11 such as non-volatile random access memory (RAM) and/or read-only memory (ROM), including for example one or more levels of cached memory
  • RAM non-volatile random access memory
  • ROM read-only memory
  • Memory 11 may be used for a variety of purposes such as, for example, caching and/or storing data, programming instructions, and the like. It should be further appreciated that CPU 12 may be one of a variety of system-on-a-chip (SOC) type hardware that may include additional hardware such as memory or graphics processing chips, such as a QUALCOMM SNAPDRAGONTM or SAMSUNG EXYNOSTM CPU as are becoming increasingly common in the art, such as for use in mobile devices or integrated devices.
  • SOC system-on-a-chip
  • processor is not limited merely to those integrated circuits referred to in the art as a processor, a mobile processor, or a microprocessor, but broadly refers to a microcontroller, a microcomputer, a programmable logic controller, an application-specific integrated circuit, and any other programmable circuit.
  • interfaces 15 are provided as network interface cards (NICs).
  • NICs control the sending and receiving of data packets over a computer network; other types of interfaces 15 may for example support other peripherals used with computing device 10.
  • interfaces that may be provided are Ethernet interfaces, frame relay interfaces, cable interfaces, DSL interfaces, token ring interfaces, graphics interfaces, and the like.
  • interfaces may be provided such as, for example, universal serial bus (USB), Serial, Ethernet, FIREWIRETM, THUNDERBOLTTM, PCI, parallel, radio frequency (RF), BLUETOOTHTM, near-field communications (e.g., using near-field magnetics), 802.11 (WiFi), frame relay, TCP/IP, ISDN, fast Ethernet interfaces, Gigabit Ethernet interfaces, Serial ATA (SATA) or external SATA (ESATA) interfaces, high-definition multimedia interface (HDMI), digital visual interface (DVI), analog or digital audio interfaces, asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) interfaces, high-speed serial interface (HSSI) interfaces, Point of Sale (POS) interfaces, fiber data distributed interfaces (FDDIs), and the like.
  • USB universal serial bus
  • RF radio frequency
  • BLUETOOTHTM near-field communications
  • near-field communications e.g., using near-field magnetics
  • WiFi wireless FIREWIRETM
  • Such interfaces 15 may include physical ports appropriate for communication with appropriate media. In some cases, they may also include an independent processor (such as a dedicated audio or video processor, as is common in the art for high-fidelity A/V hardware interfaces) and, in some instances, volatile and/or non-volatile memory (e.g., RAM).
  • an independent processor such as a dedicated audio or video processor, as is common in the art for high-fidelity A/V hardware interfaces
  • volatile and/or non-volatile memory e.g., RAM
  • FIG. 26 illustrates one specific architecture for a computing device 10 for implementing one or more of the aspects described herein, it is by no means the only device architecture on which at least a portion of the features and techniques described herein may be implemented.
  • architectures having one or any number of processors 13 may be used, and such processors 13 may be present in a single device or distributed among any number of devices.
  • a single processor 13 handles communications as well as routing computations, while in other aspects a separate dedicated communications processor may be provided.
  • different types of features or functionalities may be implemented in a system according to the aspect that includes a client device (such as a tablet device or smartphone running client software) and server systems (such as a server system described in more detail below).
  • the system of an aspect may employ one or more memories or memory modules (such as, for example, remote memory block 16 and local memory 11) configured to store data, program instructions for the general-purpose network operations, or other information relating to the functionality of the aspects described herein (or any combinations of the above).
  • Program instructions may control execution of or comprise an operating system and/or one or more applications, for example.
  • Memory 16 or memories 11, 16 may also be configured to store data structures, configuration data, encryption data, historical system operations information, or any other specific or generic non-program information described herein.
  • At least some network device aspects may include nontransitory machine-readable storage media, which, for example, may be configured or designed to store program instructions, state information, and the like for performing various operations described herein.
  • nontransitory machine- readable storage media include, but are not limited to, magnetic media such as hard disks, floppy disks, and magnetic tape; optical media such as CD-ROM disks; magneto-optical media such as optical disks, and hardware devices that are specially configured to store and perform program instructions, such as read-only memory devices (ROM), flash memory (as is common in mobile devices and integrated systems), solid state drives (SSD) and“hybrid SSD” storage drives that may combine physical components of solid state and hard disk drives in a single hardware device (as are becoming increasingly common in the art with regard to personal computers), memristor memory, random access memory (RAM), and the like.
  • ROM read-only memory
  • flash memory as is common in mobile devices and integrated systems
  • SSD solid state drives
  • HDD hard disk drives
  • RAM random access memory
  • such storage means may be integral and non-removable (such as RAM hardware modules that may be soldered onto a motherboard or otherwise integrated into an electronic device), or they may be removable such as swappable flash memory modules (such as“thumb drives” or other removable media designed for rapidly exchanging physical storage devices),“hot-swappable” hard disk drives or solid state drives, removable optical storage discs, or other such removable media, and that such integral and removable storage media may be utilized interchangeably.
  • swappable flash memory modules such as“thumb drives” or other removable media designed for rapidly exchanging physical storage devices
  • “hot-swappable” hard disk drives or solid state drives such as “hot-swappable” hard disk drives or solid state drives, removable optical storage discs, or other such removable media, and that such integral and removable storage media may be utilized interchangeably.
  • program instructions include both object code, such as may be produced by a compiler, machine code, such as may be produced by an assembler or a linker, byte code, such as may be generated by for example aJAVATM compiler and may be executed using ajava virtual machine or equivalent, or files containing higher level code that may be executed by the computer using an interpreter (for example, scripts written in Python, Perl, Ruby, Groovy, or any other scripting language).
  • systems may be implemented on a standalone computing system.
  • Computing device 20 includes processors 21 that may run software that carry out one or more functions or applications of aspects, such as for example a client application 24.
  • Processors 21 may carry out computing instructions under control of an operating system 22 such as, for example, a version of MICROSOFT WINDOWSTM operating system, APPLE macOSTM or iOSTM operating systems, some variety of the Linux operating system, ANDROIDTM operating system, or the like.
  • an operating system 22 such as, for example, a version of MICROSOFT WINDOWSTM operating system, APPLE macOSTM or iOSTM operating systems, some variety of the Linux operating system, ANDROIDTM operating system, or the like.
  • one or more shared services 23 may be operable in system 20, and may be useful for providing common services to client applications 24.
  • Services 23 may for example be WINDOWSTM services, user-space common services in a Linux environment, or any other type of common service architecture used with operating system 21.
  • Input devices 28 may be of any type suitable for receiving user input, including for example a keyboard, touchscreen, microphone (for example, for voice input), mouse, touchpad, trackball, or any combination thereof.
  • Output devices 27 may be of any type suitable for providing output to one or more users, whether remote or local to system 20, and may include for example one or more screens for visual output, speakers, printers, or any combination thereof.
  • Memory 25 may be random- access memory having any structure and architecture known in the art, for use by processors 21, for example to run software.
  • Storage devices 26 may be any magnetic, optical, mechanical, memristor, or electrical storage device for storage of data in digital form (such as those described above, referring to Fig. 26). Examples of storage devices 26 include flash memory, magnetic hard drive, CD-ROM, and/or the like.
  • systems may be implemented on a distributed computing network, such as one having any number of clients and/or servers.
  • Fig. 28 there is shown a block diagram depicting an exemplary architecture 30 for implementing at least a portion of a system according to one aspect on a distributed computing network.
  • any number of clients 33 may be provided.
  • Each client 33 may run software for implementing client- side portions of a system; clients may comprise a system 20 such as that illustrated in Fig. 27.
  • any number of servers 32 may be provided for handling requests received from one or more clients 33.
  • Clients 33 and servers 32 may communicate with one another via one or more electronic networks 31, which may be in various aspects any of the Internet, a wide area network, a mobile telephony network (such as CDMA or GSM cellular networks), a wireless network (such as WiFi, WiMAX, LTE, and so forth), or a local area network (or indeed any network topology known in the art; the aspect does not prefer any one network topology over any other).
  • Networks 31 may be implemented using any known network protocols, including for example wired and/or wireless protocols.
  • servers 32 may call external services 37 when needed to obtain additional information, or to refer to additional data concerning a particular call.
  • external services 37 may take place, for example, via one or more networks 31.
  • external services 37 may comprise web-enabled services or functionality related to or installed on the hardware device itself.
  • client applications 24 may obtain information stored in a server system 32 in the cloud or on an external service 37 deployed on one or more of a particular enterprise’s or user’s premises.
  • clients 33 or servers 32 may make use of one or more specialized services or appliances that may be deployed locally or remotely across one or more networks 31.
  • one or more databases 34 may be used or referred to by one or more aspects. It should be understood by one having ordinary skill in the art that databases 34 may be arranged in a wide variety of architectures and using a wide variety of data access and manipulation means.
  • one or more databases 34 may comprise a relational database system using a structured query language (SQL), while others may comprise an alternative data storage technology such as those referred to in the art as“NoSQL” (for example, HADOOP CASSANDRATM, GOOGLE BIGTABLETM, and so forth).
  • SQL structured query language
  • variant database architectures such as column-oriented databases, in-memory databases, clustered databases, distributed databases, or even flat file data repositories may be used according to the aspect. It will be appreciated by one having ordinary skill in the art that any combination of known or future database technologies may be used as appropriate, unless a specific database technology or a specific arrangement of components is specified for a particular aspect described herein. Moreover, it should be appreciated that the term“database” as used herein may refer to a physical database machine, a cluster of machines acting as a single database system, or a logical database within an overall database management system.
  • security systems 36 and configuration systems 35 may make use of one or more security systems 36 and configuration systems 35.
  • Security and configuration management are common information technology (IT) and web functions, and some amount of each are generally associated with any IT or web systems. It should be understood by one having ordinary skill in the art that any configuration or security subsystems known in the art now or in the future may be used in conjunction with aspects without limitation, unless a specific security 36 or configuration system 35 or approach is specifically required by the description of any specific aspect.
  • Fig. 29 shows an exemplary overview of a computer system 40 as may be used in any of the various locations throughout the system. It is exemplary of any computer that may execute code to process data. Various modifications and changes may be made to computer system 40 without departing from the broader scope of the system and method disclosed herein.
  • Central processor unit (CPU) 41 is connected to bus 42, to which bus is also connected memory 43, nonvolatile memory 44, display 47, input/output (I/O) unit 48, and network interface card (NIC) 53.
  • I/O unit 48 may, typically, be connected to keyboard 49, pointing device 50, hard disk 52, and real-time clock 51.
  • NIC 53 connects to network 54, which may be the Internet or a local network, which local network may or may not have connections to the Internet.
  • power supply unit 45 connected, in this example, to a main alternating current (AC) supply 46.
  • AC alternating current
  • functionality for implementing systems or methods of various aspects may be distributed among any number of client and/or server components.
  • various software modules may be implemented for performing various functions in connection with the system of any particular aspect, and such modules may be variously implemented to run on server and/or client components.

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Abstract

L'invention concerne un système et des procédés permettant de faire fonctionner un moteur de modélisation de résultats qui incorpore une large gamme de données d'entrée provenant de diverses sources comprenant (mais sans limitation) des avancées scientifiques dans les analyses de données, une modélisation basée sur un agent, une simulation d'événement discret, et les mathématiques de l'entropie pour aider à prendre de meilleures décisions concernant des systèmes socio-techniques du monde réel.
EP18878344.3A 2017-11-14 2018-11-14 Réduction de l'incertitude épistemique à l'aide de simulations, de modèles et d'échange de données Withdrawn EP3710958A4 (fr)

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US15/813,097 US20180165587A1 (en) 2015-10-28 2017-11-14 Epistemic uncertainty reduction using simulations, models and data exchange
PCT/US2018/060990 WO2019099478A1 (fr) 2017-11-14 2018-11-14 Réduction de l'incertitude épistemique à l'aide de simulations, de modèles et d'échange de données

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