EP3065631A1

EP3065631A1 - Noninvasive predictive and/or estimative blood pressure monitoring

Info

Publication number: EP3065631A1
Application number: EP14859538.2A
Authority: EP
Inventors: Isobel Jane Mulligan; Gregory Zlatko Grudic; Steven L. MOULTON
Original assignee: Flashback Technologies Inc; University of Colorado
Current assignee: Flashback Technologies Inc; University of Colorado
Priority date: 2013-11-06
Filing date: 2014-11-06
Publication date: 2016-09-14
Also published as: CA2929819A1; EP3065631A4; WO2015069940A1

Abstract

Tools and techniques for estimating and/or predicting a patient's current and/or future blood pressure. In some cases, the tools will analyze physiological data captured from the patient against a model of blood pressure values to estimate/predict the patient's blood pressure value. In particular cases, derived parameters, such as a patient's compensatory reserve index ("CRI") can be analyzed against such models, while in other cases, data captured from sensors can be directly analyzed against such models.

Description

Noninvasive Predictive and/or Estimative Blood Pressure Monitoring

STATEMENT AS TO RIGHTS TO INVENTIONS MADE UNDER FEDERALLY SPONSORED RESEARCH OR DEVELOPMENT

[0001] This invention was made with government support under grant number

0535269 awarded by the National Science Foundation; grant number FA8650-07-C- 7702 awarded by the Air Force Research Laboratory; and grant numbers W81XWH- 09-C-1060 and W81XWH-09- 1-0750 awarded by Army Medical Research Material and Command. The government has certain rights in the invention.

COPYRIGHT STATEMENT

[0002] A portion of the disclosure of this patent document contains material that is subject to copyright protection. The copyright owner has no objection to the facsimile reproduction by anyone of the patent document or the patent disclosure as it appears in the Patent and Trademark Office patent file or records, but otherwise reserves all copyright rights whatsoever.

FIELD

[0003] The present disclosure relates, in general, tools and techniques for medical monitoring, and more particularly, to tools and techniques that can monitor, estimate, and/or predict a patient's blood pressure.

BACKGROUND

[0004] Blood pressure is a widely used indicator for a variety of

cardiovascular conditions and is considered a primary vital sign. Generally, however, blood pressure is relatively difficult to measure. There are several measurement techniques, but the most accurate techniques are invasive, while noninvasive techniques require relative expertise and specialized equipment to perform. For example, using the auscultatory technique, a blood pressure cuff will be applied to a patient's arm (or other extremity), and a clinician will inflate the cuff to apply pressure to the patient's blood vessels in the extremity, to the point where blood flow through the vessel is occluded. By determining (e.g., by listening with a stethoscope) when the blood begins to flow through the vessel as pressure is decreased, the clinician can estimate the systolic pressure in the vessel by measuring the pressure with a sphygmomanometer at that point. By continuing to listen as pressure continues to decrease until the flowing blood no longer makes a sound, the clinician can estimate the diastolic pressure in the vessel by measuring the pressure at that point. Without a sphygmomanometer, pressure cuff, stethoscope, and training, however, such techniques are difficult or impossible to perform. Further, in emergent situations, the mechanics of performing this technique can distract the clinician from other important duties.

[0005] Hence, there is a need for a simpler technique to provide accurate estimates of blood pressure without requiring a blood pressure cuff or undue attention from the clinician; it would be helpful if the technique could predict future changes in blood pressure as well.

BRIEF SUMMARY

[0006] Various embodiments can monitor, estimate and/or predict a patient's current or future blood pressure noninvasively. In various aspect, such embodiments can perform one or more of the following functions: estimating if a patient's blood pressure is low; estimating if a patient's blood pressure is high; estimating if a patient's blood pressure is normal; identifying when a patient's blood pressure changes significantly over a time period; predicting when a patient's blood pressure will increase to a specific value; predicting when a patient's blood pressure will decrease to a specific value; predicting when a patient's blood pressure will increase by a specified amount; and/or predicting when a patient's blood pressure will decrease by a specified amount.

[0007] The tools provided by various embodiments include, without limitation, methods, systems, and/or software products. Merely by way of example, a method might comprise one or more procedures, any or all of which are executed by a computer system. Correspondingly, an embodiment might provide a computer system configured with instructions to perform one or more procedures in accordance with methods provided by various other embodiments. Similarly, a computer program might comprise a set of instructions that are executable by a computer system (and/or a processor therein) to perform such operations. In many cases, such software programs are encoded on physical, tangible and/or non-transitory computer readable media (such as, to name but a few examples, optical media, magnetic media, and/or the like).

[0008] For example, one set of embodiments provides methods. An exemplary method might comprise monitoring, with one or more sensors,

physiological data of a patient. The method might further comprise analyzing, with a computer system, the physiological data. Many different types of physiological data can be monitored and/or analyzed by various embodiments, including without limitation, blood pressure waveform data, plethysmograph waveform data, photoplethysmograph ("PPG") waveform data (such as that generated by a pulse oximeter), and/or the like. In some cases, the method can further comprise predicting and/or estimating a blood pressure of the patient, and/or displaying (e.g., on a display device) an estimate and/or prediction of the blood pressure value of the patient.

[0009] An apparatus, in accordance with yet another set of embodiments, might comprise a computer readable medium having encoded thereon a set of instructions executable by one or more computers to perform one or more operations. In some embodiments, the set of instructions might comprise instructions for performing some or all of the operations of methods provided by certain

embodiments.

[0010] A system, in accordance with yet another set of embodiments, might comprise one or more processors and a computer readable medium in communication with the one or more processors. The computer readable medium might have encoded thereon a set of instructions executable by the computer system to perform one or more operations, such as the set of instructions described above, to name one example. In some embodiments, the system might further comprise one or more sensors and/or a therapeutic device, either or both of which might be in

communication with the processor and/or might be controlled by the processor. Such sensors can include, but are not limited to, a blood pressure sensor, an intracranial pressure monitor, a central venous pressure monitoring catheter, an arterial catheter, an electroencephalograph, a cardiac monitor, a transcranial Doppler sensor, a transthoracic impedance plethysmograph, a pulse oximeter, a near infrared spectrometer, a ventilator, an accelerometer, an electrooculogram, a transcutaneous glucometer, an electrolyte sensor, and/or an electronic stethoscope.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0011] A further understanding of the nature and advantages of particular embodiments may be realized by reference to the remaining portions of the specification and the drawings, in which like reference numerals are used to refer to similar components. In some instances, a sub-label is associated with a reference numeral to denote one of multiple similar components. When reference is made to a reference numeral without specification to an existing sub-label, it is intended to refer to all such multiple similar components.

[0012] Fig. 1 A is a schematic diagram illustrating a system for estimating compensatory reserve, in accordance with various embodiments.

[0013] Fig. IB is a schematic diagram illustrating a sensor system that can be worn on a patient's body, in accordance with various embodiments.

[0014] Fig. 2A is a process flow diagram illustrating a method estimating a patient's blood pressure and/or predicting future changes in a patient's blood pressure, in accordance with various embodiments.

[0015] Fig. 2B illustrates a technique for estimating and/or predicting a blood pressure value for a patient, in accordance with various embodiments.

[0016] Fig. 3A is a process flow diagram illustrating a method estimating a patient's compensatory reserve and/or dehydration state, in accordance with various embodiments.

[0017] Fig. 3B illustrates a technique for estimating and/or predicting a patient's compensatory reserve index, in accordance with various embodiments.

[0018] Fig. 4 is a process flow diagram illustrating a method of generating a model of a physiological state, in accordance with various embodiments. [0019] Fig. 5 is a generalized schematic diagram illustrating a computer system, in accordance with various embodiments.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF CERTAIN EMBODIMENTS

[0020] The following disclosure illustrates a few exemplary embodiments in further detail to enable one of skill in the art to practice such embodiments. The described examples are provided for illustrative purposes and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.

[0021] In the following description, for the purposes of explanation, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the described embodiments. It will be apparent to one skilled in the art, however, that other embodiments of the present may be practiced without some of these specific details. In other instances, certain structures and devices are shown in block diagram form. Several embodiments are described herein, and while various features are ascribed to different embodiments, it should be appreciated that the features described with respect to one embodiment may be incorporated with other embodiments as well. By the same token, however, no single feature or features of any described

embodiment should be considered essential to every embodiment of the invention, as other embodiments of the invention may omit such features.

[0022] Unless otherwise indicated, all numbers used herein to express quantities, dimensions, and so forth should be understood as being modified in all instances by the term "about." In this application, the use of the singular includes the plural unless specifically stated otherwise, and use of the terms "and" and "or" means "and/or" unless otherwise indicated. Moreover, the use of the term "including," as well as other forms, such as "includes" and "included," should be considered nonexclusive. Also, terms such as "element" or "component" encompass both elements and components comprising one unit and elements and components that comprise more than one unit, unless specifically stated otherwise.

[0023] Overview

[0024] A set of embodiments provides methods, systems, and software that can be used, in many cases noninvasively, to estimate a patient's blood pressure (and/or to predict future changes in the patient's blood pressure) without the need for a sphygmomanometer or labor-intensive procedures. In a particular set of

embodiments, a device, which can be worn on the patient's body, can include one or more sensors that monitor a patient's physiological parameters. The device (or a computer in communication with the device) can analyze the data captured by the sensors and compare such data with a model (which can be generated in accordance with other embodiments) to estimate the patient's blood pressure (e.g., low, normal, or high) and/or to predict whether (and, in some cases when and/or by how much) a patient's blood pressure will increase or decrease.

[0025] Different embodiments can measure a number of different

physiological parameters from the patient, and the analysis of those parameters can vary according to which parameters are measured (and which, according to the generated model, are found to be most predictive of blood pressure and/or changes in blood pressure). In some cases, the parameters themselves (e.g., continuous waveform data captured by a photoplethysmograph) can be analyzed against the model to make estimates or predictions of blood pressure. In other cases,

physiological parameters can be derived from the captured data, and these parameters can be used Merely by way of example, the '483 Application (already incorporated by reference) describes techniques for estimating a patient's compensatory reserve index ("CRI," also referred to in the Related Applications as a Cardiac Reserve Index or Hemodynamic Reserve Index ("HDRI"), all of which should be considered equivalent terms), and changes in CRI values over time can be used to estimate and/or predict blood pressure.

[0026] For example, the '483 Application describes a hemodynamic reserve monitor that is able to estimate the compensatory reserve of a patient. In an aspect, this monitor quickly, accurately and/or in real-time can determine the probability of whether a patient is bleeding. In another aspect, the device can simultaneously monitor the patient's compensatory reserve by tracking the patient's CRI, to appropriately and effectively guide fluid resuscitation and ongoing patient care. The same device (or a similar device) can also include advanced functionality to estimate or predict a patient's blood pressure based on the monitored CRI values, as explained in further detail below. [0027] The Compensatory reserve index (CRI) is a hemodynamic parameter that is indicative of the individual-specific proportion of intravascular fiuid reserve remaining before the onset of hemodynamic decompensation. CRI has values that range from 1 to 0, where values near 1 are associated with normovolemia (normal circulatory volume) and values near 0 are associated with the individual specific

circulatory volume at which hemodynamic decompensation occurs.

[0028] The mathematical formula of CRI, at some time "t" is given by the

following equation:

BI V HDD

[0029] Where BLV(t)is the intravascular volume loss ("BLV," also referred to as "blood loss volume" in the Related Applications) of a person at time "t," and

BLV^^s the intravascular volume loss of a person when they enter hemodynamic decompensation ("HDD"). Hemodynamic decompensation is generally defined as occurring when the systolic blood pressure falls below 70 mmHg. This level of

intravascular volume loss is individual specific and will vary from subject to subject.

[0030] Lower body negative pressure (LBNP) in some linear or nonlinear

relationship λ with intravascular volume loss:

BLV = λ ^■ LBNP (Eq. 2)

[0031] can be used in order to estimate the CRI for an individual undergoing a

LBNP experiment as follows:

_{Cj?/ = 1} _ _ggW _{¾ 1} _ λ -LBNP(t) ₌ _LBNPW _{( }}

BLV HDD A LBNP_HDD LBNP_HDD ⁿ '

[0032] Where LBNP(t) is the LBNP level that the individual is experiencing at time "t", and, YR V_HOO is the LNPB level that the individual will enter

hemodynamic decompensation.

[0033] A measure of CRI is useful in a variety of clinical settings, including but not limited to: 1) acute blood loss volume due to injury or surgery; 2) acute

circulatory volume loss due to hemodialysis (also called intradialytic hypotension);

and 3) acute circulatory volume loss due to various causes of dehydration (e.g.

reduced fiuid intake, vomiting, dehydration, etc.). A change in CRI can also herald other conditions, including without limitation changes in blood pressure, general fatigue, overheating and certain types of illnesses. Accordingly, the tools and techniques for estimating and/or predicting CRI can have a variety of applications in a clinical setting, including without limitation diagnosing such conditions.

[0034] In various embodiments, a compensatory reserve monitor can include, but is not limited to, some or all of the following functionality, as described in further detail herein:

[0035] A. Estimating and/or displaying intravascular volume loss to hemodynamic decompensation (or cardiovascular collapse).

[0036] B. Estimating, predicting and/or displaying a patient's

compensatory reserve as an index that is proportional to an approximate measure of intravascular volume loss to CV collapse, recognizing that each patient has a unique reserve capacity.

[0037] C. Estimating, predicting and/or displaying a patient's

compensatory reserve as an index with a normative value at euvolemia (for example, CRI = 1), representing a state in which the patient is normovolemic; a minimum value (for example, CRI = 0) which implies no circulatory reserve and that the patient is experiencing CV collapse; and/or an excess value (for example, CRI > 1) representing a state in which the patient is hypervolemic; the patient's normalized compensatory reserve can be displayed on a continuum between the minimum and maximum values (perhaps labeled by different symbols and/or colors depending on where the patient falls on the continuum).

[0038] D. Determining and/or displaying a probability that bleeding or intravascular volume loss has occurred.

[0039] E. Displaying an indicator that intravascular volume loss has occurred and/or is ongoing; as well as other measures of reserve, such as trend lines.

[0040] F. Estimating and/or predicting a patient's blood pressure, and/or future changes to a patient's blood pressure.

[0041] G. Displaying an estimate and/or prediction of a patients current and/or future blood pressure status. [0042] In various embodiments, CRI estimates can be (i) based on a fixed time history of patient monitoring (for example a 30 second or 30 heart beat window); (ii) based on a dynamic time history of patient monitoring (for example monitoring for 200 minutes may use all sensor information gathered during that time to refine and improve CRI estimates); (iii) based on either establishing a baseline estimate of CRI when the patient is normovolemic (no volume loss has occurred); and/or (iv) based on NO baselines estimates when patient is normovolemic.

[0043] Certain embodiments can also recommend treatment options, based on the analysis of the patient's condition (including the estimated/predicted blood pressure, probability of bleeding, state of dehydration, and/or the patient's estimated and/or predicted CRI). Treatment options can include, without limitation, such things as optimizing hemodynamics, ventilator adjustments, IV fluid adjustments, transfusion of blood or blood products, infusion of volume expanders, medication changes, changes in patient position and surgical therapy.

[0044] As a specific example, certain embodiments can be used as an input for a hemodialysis procedure. For example, certain embodiments can predict how much intravascular (blood) volume can be safely removed from a patient during a hemodialysis process. For example, an embodiment might provide instructions to a human operator of a hemodialysis machine, based on estimates or predictions of the patient's CRI. Additionally and/or alternatively, such embodiments can be used to continuously self-adjust the ultra- filtration rate of the hemodialysis equipment, thereby completely avoiding intradialytic hypotension and its associated morbidity.

[0045] As another example, certain embodiments can be used to estimate and/or predict a dehydration state (and/or the amount of dehydration) in an individual (e.g., a trauma patient, an athlete, an elder living at home, etc.) and/or to provide treatment (either by providing recommendations to treating personnel or by directly controlling appropriate therapeutic equipment). For instance, if an analytical model indicates a relationship between CRI (and/or any other physiological phenomena that can be measured and/or estimated using the techniques described herein and in the Related Applications) and dehydration state, an embodiment can apply that model, using the techniques described herein, to estimate a dehydration state of the patient. [0046] Exemplary Systems and Methods

[0047] Fig. 1 A provides a general overview of a system provided by certain embodiments. The system includes a computer system 100 in communication with one or more sensors 105, which are configured to obtain physiological data from the subject (e.g., animal or human test subject or patient) 110. In one embodiment, the computer system 100 comprises a Lenovo THINKPAD X200, 4GB of RAM with Microsoft WINDOWS 7 operating system and is programmed with software to execute the computational methods outlined herein. The computational methods can be implemented in MATLAB 2009b and C++ programming languages. A more general example of a computer system 100 that can be used in some embodiments is described in further detail below. Even more generally, however, the computer system 100 can be any system of one or more computers that are capable of performing the techniques described herein. In a particular embodiment, for example, the computer system 100 is capable of reading values from the physiological sensors 105, generating models of physiological state from those sensors, and/or employing such models to make individual-specific estimations, predictions, or other diagnoses, displaying the results, recommending and/or implementing a therapeutic treatment as a result of the analysis, and/or archiving (learning) these results for use in future, model building and predictions.

[0048] The sensors 105 can be any of a variety of sensors (including without limitation those described herein) for obtaining physiological data from the subject. An exemplary sensor suite might include a Finometer sensor for obtaining a noninvasive continuous blood pressure waveform, a pulse oximeter sensor, an Analog to Digital Board (National Instruments USB-9215A 16-Bit, 4 channel) for connecting the sensors (either the pulse oximeter and/or the finometer) to the computer system 100. More generally, in an embodiment one or more sensors 105 might obtain, e.g., using one or more of the techniques described herein, continuous physiological waveform data, such as continuous blood pressure. Input from the sensors 105 can constitute continuous data signals and/or outcomes that can be used to generate, and/or can be applied to, a predictive model as described below.

[0049] In some cases, the structure might include a therapeutic device 115

(also referred to herein as a "physiological assistive device"), which can be controlled by the computer system 100 to administer therapeutic treatment, in accordance with the recommendations developed by analysis of a patient's physiological data. In a particular embodiment, the therapeutic device might comprise hemodialysis equipment (also referred to as a hemodialysis machine), which can be controlled by the computer system 100 based on the estimated CRI of the patient, as described in further detail below. Further examples of therapeutic devices in other embodiments can include a cardiac assist device, a ventilator, an automatic implantable cardioverter defibrillator ("AICD"), pacemakers, an extracorporeal membrane oxygenation circuit, a positive airway pressure ("PAP") device (including without limitation a continuous positive airway pressure ("cPAP") device or the like), an anesthesia machine, an integrated critical care system, a medical robot, intravenous and/or intra-arterial pumps that can provide fluids and/or therapeutic compounds (e.g., through intravenous injection), a heating/cooling blanket, and/or the like.

[0050] Fig. IB illustrates in more detail an exemplary sensor device 105, which can be used in the system 100 described above. (It should be noted, of course, that the depicted sensor device 105 of Fig. IB is not intended to be limiting, and different embodiments can employ any sensor that captures suitable data, including without limitation sensors described elsewhere in this disclosure and in the Related Applications.) The illustrated sensor device 105 is designed to be worn on a patient's wrist and therefore can be used both in clinical settings and in the field (e.g., on any person for whom monitoring might be beneficial, for a variety of reasons, including without limitation estimation/prediction of blood pressure).

[0051] Hence, the exemplary sensor 105 device includes a finger cuff 125 and a wrist unit 130. The finger cuff 125 includes a fingertip sensor 135 (in this case, a PPG sensor) that captures data based on physiological conditions of the patient, such as PPG waveform data. The sensor 135 communicates with an input/output unit 140 of the wrist unit 130 to provide output from the sensor 135 to a processing unit 145 of the wrist unit 130. Such communication can be wired (e.g., via a standard— such as USB— or proprietary connector on the wrist unit 130) and/or wireless (e.g., via Bluetooth, such as Bluetooth Low Energy ("BTLE"), near field connection ("NFC"), WiFi, or any other suitable radio technology).

[0052] In different embodiments, the processing unit can have different types of functionality. For example, in some cases, the processing unit might simply act to store and/or organize data prior to transmitting the data through the I/O unit 140 to a monitoring computer 100, which might perform data analysis, control a therapeutic device 115, etc. In other cases, however, the processing unit 145 might act as a specialized computer (e.g., with some or all of the components described in connection with Fig. 5, below and/or some or all of the functionality ascribed to the computer 100 of Figs. 1A and IB), such that the processing unit can perform data analysis onboard, e.g., to estimate and/or predict a patient's current and/or future blood pressure. As such, the wrist unit 105 might include a display, which can display any output described herein, including without limitation estimated and/or predicted values (e.g., of CRI, blood pressure, hydration status, etc.), data captured by the sensor (e.g., heart rate, pulse ox, etc.), and/or the like.

[0053] In some cases, the wrist unit 130 might include a wrist strap 155 that allows the unit to be worn on the wrist, similar to a watch. Of course, other options are available to facilitate transportation of the sensor device 105 with a patent. More generally, the sensor device 105 might not include all of the components described above, and/or various components might be combined and/or reorganized; once again, the embodiment illustrated by Fig. IB should be considered only illustrative, and not limiting, in nature.

[0054] Figs. 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B and 4 illustrate methods and screen displays in accordance with various embodiments. While the methods of Figs. 2A, 2B, 3 A, 3B and 4 are illustrated, for ease of description, as different methods, it should be appreciated that the various techniques and procedures of these methods can be combined in any suitable fashion, and that, in some embodiments, the methods depicted by Figs. 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B and 4 can be considered interoperable and/or as portions of a single method. Similarly, while the techniques and procedures are depicted and/or described in a certain order for purposes of illustration, it should be appreciated that certain procedures may be reordered and/or omitted within the scope of various embodiments. Moreover, while the methods illustrated by Figs. 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B and 4 can be implemented by (and, in some cases, are described below with respect to) the computer system 100 of Fig. 1 (or other components of the system, such as the sensor 105 of Figs. 1A and IB), these methods may also be implemented using any suitable hardware implementation. Similarly, while the computer system 100 of Fig. 1 (and/or other components of such a system) can operate according to the methods illustrated by Figs. 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B and 4 (e.g., by executing instructions embodied on a computer readable medium), the system 100 can also operate according to other modes of operation and/or perform other suitable procedures.

[0055] Merely by way of example, a method might comprise one or more procedures, any or all of which are executed by a computer system. Correspondingly, an embodiment might provide a computer system configured with instructions to perform one or more procedures in accordance with methods provided by various other embodiments. Similarly, a computer program might comprise a set of instructions that are executable by a computer system (and/or a processor therein) to perform such operations. In many cases, such software programs are encoded on physical, tangible and/or non-transitory computer readable media (such as, to name but a few examples, optical media, magnetic media, and/or the like).

[0056] By way of non-limiting example, various embodiments can comprise a method for using sensor data to estimate and/or predict a patient's current and/or future blood pressure. Fig. 2 illustrates an exemplary method 200 in accordance with various embodiments. The method 200 might comprise generating a model, e.g., with a computer system, against which patient data can be analyzed to estimate and/or predict various physiological states (block 205). In a general sense, generating the model can comprise receiving data pertaining to a plurality of more physiological parameters of a test subject to obtain a plurality of physiological data sets. Such data can include PPG waveform data to name one example, and/or any other type of sensor data including without limitation data captured by other sensors described herein and in the Related Applications.

[0057] Generating a model can further comprise directly measuring one or more physiological states of the test subject with a reference sensor to obtain a plurality of physiological state measurements. The one or more physiological states can include, without limitation, a state of low blood pressure, a state of normal blood pressure, and a state of high blood pressure. (In other embodiments, different states can include a state of hypervolemia, a state of euvolemia, and/or a state of

cardiovascular collapse (or near-cardiovascular collapse)). Generating the model can further comprise correlating the states with the measured physiological parameters. There are a variety of techniques for generating a model in accordance with different embodiments, using these general functions. One exemplary technique for generating a model of a generic physiological state is described below with respect to Fig. 4, below, which provides a technique using a machine-learning algorithm to optimize the correlation between measured physiological parameters (such as PPG waveform data, to name one example) and physical states (e.g., various blood pressure values, either numeric or qualitative). It should be appreciated, however, that any suitable technique or model may be employed in accordance with various embodiments.

[0058] A number of physiological states can be modeled, and a number of different conditions can be imposed on test subjects as part of the model generation.

[0059] Merely by way of example, in one set of embodiments, a number of physiological parameters of a plurality of test subjects might be measured. In some cases, subject might have a variety of blood pressure values, including without limitation, low blood pressure, normal blood pressure, and high blood pressure.

Using the method described below with respect to Fig. 4 (or other, similar techniques, many of which are described in the Related Applications), the system can determine which sensor information most effectively differentiates between subjects with low blood pressure and those with high blood pressure. Using a similar technique, the system can further determine what sensor information best differentiates between subjects with low blood pressure and those with normal blood pressure, and what sensor information best differentiates between subjects with normal blood pressure and those with high blood pressure. Using these different sensor information sets, the techniques described with regard to Fig. 4 (and in the Related Applications) can develop a model that classifies sensor signals into those correlating with low, normal, and high blood pressure values, respectively.

[0060] In a similar model, sensor information might be captured, over time, for subjects whose blood pressure decreases and increases over time. Using the techniques of Fig. 4 (and the Related Applications), models can be generated that classify sensor signals into various levels of blood pressure increase or decrease over time.

[0061] Additionally and/or alternatively to using direct sensor data to build such models, some embodiments might construct a model based on data that is derived from sensor data. Merely by way of example, one such model might use, as input values, CRI values of test subjects with low, normal, and high blood pressure, respectively, and/or those with blood pressure that is increasing or decreasing over time. Accordingly, the process of generating a model might first comprise building a model of CRI, and then, from that model, building a model of blood pressure.

[0062] A CRI model can be generated in different ways. For example, in some cases, one or more test subjects might be subjected to LBNP. In an exemplary case, LBNP data is collected from human subjects being exposed to progressively lower levels of LBNP, until hemodynamic decompensation, at which time LBNP is released and the subject recovers. Each level of LBNP represents an additional amount of blood loss. During these tests, physiological data (including without limitation waveform data, such as continuous non-invasive blood pressure data)) can be collected before, during, and/or after the application of the LBNP. As noted above, a relationship (as expressed by Equation 2) can be identified between LBNP and intravascular volume loss, and this relationship can be used to estimate CRI. Hence, LBNP studies form a framework (methodology) for the development of the hemodynamic parameter referred to herein as CRI and can be used to generate models of this parameter.

[0063] More generally, several different techniques that induce a

physiological state of reduced volume in the circulatory system, e.g., to a point of cardiovascular collapse (hemodynamic decompensation) or to a point near

cardiovascular collapse, can be used to generate such a model. LBNP can be used to induce this condition, as noted above. In some cases, such as in a study described below, dehydration can be used to induce this condition as well. Other techniques are possible as well. Similarly, data collected from a subject in a state of euvolemia, dehydration, hypervolemia, and/or other states might be used to generate a CRI model in different embodiments.

[0064] At block 210, the method 200 comprises monitoring, with one or more sensors, physiological data of a patient. As noted above, a variety of physical parameters can be monitored, invasively and/or non-invasively, depending on the nature of the anticipated physiological state of the patient. In an aspect, monitoring the one or more physical parameters might comprise receiving, e.g., from a physiological sensor, continuous waveform data, which can be sampled as necessary. Such data can include, without limitation, plethysmograph waveform data, PPG waveform data (such as that generated by a pulse oximeter), and/or the like. [0065] The method 200 might further comprise analyzing, with a computer system (e.g., a monitoring computer 100 and/or a processing unit 135 of a sensor unit, as described above), the physiological data (block 215). In some cases, the physiological data is analyzed against a pre-existing model (which might be generated as described above and which in turn, can be updated based on the analysis, as described in further detail below and in the Related Applications).

[0066] Merely by way of example, in some cases, sensor data can be analyzed directly against a generated model to estimate and/or predict blood pressure levels. For example, the sensor data can be compared to determine similarities with models that (i) estimate whether the patient's current blood pressure is low, normal, or high; (ii) identify a situation in which a patient's blood pressure has changed significantly over a period of time, in some cases several minutes to several hours, or in other cases, days, weeks, months, or years; (iii) predict when a patient's blood pressure will increase or decrease to a specific value; or (iv) predict when a patient's blood pressure will increase or decrease by a specific amount. Merely by way of example, an input waveform captured by a sensor from a patient might be compared with sample waveforms generated by models for each of the above conditions to estimate or predict present or future blood pressure conditions, for example, using the technique 265 illustrated in Fig. 2B.

[0067] The technique 265 provides one method for deriving an estimate of a blood pressure value in accordance with some embodiments. The illustrated technique 265 comprises sampling waveform data (e.g., any of the data described herein and in the Related Applications, including without limitation arterial waveform data, such as continuous PPG waveforms and/or continuous noninvasive blood pressure waveforms) for a specified period, such as 32 heartbeats (block 270). That sample is compared with a plurality of waveforms of reference data corresponding to different blood pressure values (block 275), which can be qualitative values (such as low, medium, and high, as illustrated) or might be quantitative (e.g., numeric) values (such as BP=60, BP=70, BP=80, ... BP=180, etc.). (These reference waveforms derived as part of the model developed using the algorithms described in this and the Related Applications, might be the result of experimental data, and/or the like).

Merely by way of example, the sample might be compared with waveforms corresponding to a low blood pressure (block 275a), a normal blood pressure (block 275b), and a high blood pressure (block 275c), as illustrated. From the comparison, a similarity coefficient is calculated (e.g., using a least squares or similar analysis) to express the similarity between the sampled waveform and each of the reference waveforms (block 280). These similarity coefficients can be normalized (if appropriate) (block 285), and the normalized coefficients can be summed (block 390) to produce an estimated blood pressure value of the patient. For example, numerical values (such as 0, 1, and 2) might be assigned to low, normal, and high qualitative blood pressure values, respectively, and by summing these normalized coefficients, the resulting value can be expressed numerically and then categorized based on the numeric values assigned to the qualitative values.

[0068] In other cases, similar techniques can be used to analyze data against a model based on parameters derived from direct sensor measurements. (In one aspect, such operations can be iterative in nature, by generating the derived parameters— such as CRI, to name one example— by analyzing the sensor data against a first model, and then analyzing the derived parameters against a second model.

[0069] For example, Fig 3A illustrates a method 300 of calculating a patient's

CRI, which can be used (in some embodiments) as a parameter that can be analyzed to estimate and/or predict a patient's blood pressure. The method 300 includes generating a model of CRI (block 305), monitoring physiological parameters (310) and analyzing the monitored physical parameters (block 315) , using techniques such as those described above and in the '483 Application, for example.

[0070] Based on this analysis, the method 300, in an exemplary embodiment, includes estimating, with the computer system, a compensatory reserve of the patient, based on analysis of the physiological data (block 320). In some cases, the method might further comprise predicting, with the computer system, the compensatory reserve of the patient at one or more time points in the future, based on analysis of the physiological data (block 325). The operations to predict a future value of a parameter can be similar to those for estimating a current value; in the prediction context, however, the applied model might correlate measured data in a test subject with subsequent values of the diagnostic parameter, rather than contemporaneous values. It is worth noting, of course, that in some embodiments, the same model can be used to both estimate a current value and predict future values of a physiological parameter. [0071] The estimated and/or predicted compensatory reserve of the patient can be based on several factors. Merely by way of example, in some cases, the estimated/predicted compensatory reserve can be based on a fixed time history of monitoring the physiological data of the patient and/or a dynamic time history of monitoring the physiological data of the patient. In other cases, the

estimated/predicted compensatory reserve can be based on a baseline estimate of the patient's compensatory reserve established when the patient is euvolemic. In still other cases, the estimate and/or prediction might not be based on a baseline estimate of the patient's compensatory reserve established when the patient is euvolemic.

[0072] Merely by way of example, Fig. 3B illustrates one technique 365 for deriving an estimate of CRI in accordance with some embodiments similar to the technique 265 described above with respect to Fig. 2B for deriving an estimate of blood pressure values directly from sensor data. The illustrated technique comprises sampling waveform data (e.g., any of the data described herein and in the Related Applications, including without limitation arterial waveform data, such as continuous PPG waveforms and/or continuous noninvasive blood pressure waveforms) for a specified period, such as 32 heartbeats (block 370). That sample is compared with a plurality of waveforms of reference data corresponding to different CRI values (block 375). (These reference waveforms might be derived using the algorithms described in the Related Applications, might be the result of experimental data, and/or the like). Merely by way of example, the sample might be compared with waveforms corresponding to a CRI of 1 (block 375a), a CRI of 0.5 (block 375b), and a CRI of 0 (block 375 c), as illustrated. From the comparison, a similarity coefficient is calculated (e.g., using a least squares or similar analysis) to express the similarity between the sampled waveform and each of the reference waveforms (block 380). These similarity coefficients can be normalized (if appropriate) (block 385), and the normalized coefficients can be summed (block 390) to produce an estimated value of the patient's CRI.

[0073] Returning to Fig. 3A, the method 300 can comprise estimating and/or predicting a patient's dehydration state (block 330). The patient's state of dehydration can be expressed in a number of ways. For instance, the state of dehydration might be expressed as a normalized value (for example, with 1.0 corresponding to a fully hydrated state and 0.0 corresponding to a state of morbid dehydration). In other cases, the state of dehydration might be expressed as a missing volume of fluid or as a volume of fluid present in the patient's system, or using any other appropriate metric.

[0074] A number of techniques can be used to model dehydration state.

Merely by way of example, as noted above (and described in further detail below), the relationship between a patient's compensatory reserve and level of dehydration can be modeled. Accordingly, in some embodiments, estimating a dehydration state of the patient might comprise estimating the compensatory reserve (e.g., CRI) of the patient, and then, based on that estimate and the known relationship, estimating the dehydration state. Similarly, a predicted value of compensatory reserve at some point in the future can be used to derive a predicted dehydration state at that point in the future. Other techniques might use a parameter other than CRI to model dehydration state.

[0075] The method 300 might further comprise normalizing the results of the analysis (block 335), such as the compensatory reserve, dehydration state, and/or probability of bleeding, to name a few examples. Merely by way of example, the estimated/predicted compensatory reserve of the patient can be normalized relative to a normative normal blood volume value corresponding to euvolemia, a normative excess blood volume value corresponding to circulatory overload, and a normative minimum blood volume value corresponding to cardiovascular collapse. Any values can be selected as the normative values. Merely by way of example, in some embodiments, the normative excess blood volume value is >1, the normative normal blood volume value is 1, and the normative minimum blood volume value is 0. As an alternative, in other embodiments, the normative excess blood volume value might be defined as 1, the normative normal blood volume value might be defined as 0, and the normative minimum blood volume value at the point of cardiovascular collapse might be defined as -1. As can be seen from these examples, different embodiments might use a number of different scales to normalize CRI and other estimated parameters.

[0076] In an aspect, normalizing the data can provide benefits in a clinical setting, because it can allow the clinician to quickly make a qualitative judgment of the patient's condition, while interpretation of the raw estimates/predictions might require additional analysis. Merely by way of example, with regard to the estimate of the compensatory reserve of the patient, that estimate might be normalized relative to a normative normal blood volume value corresponding to euvolemia and a normative minimum blood volume value corresponding to cardiovascular collapse. Once again, any values can be selected as the normative values. For example, if the normative normal blood volume is defined as 1 , and the normative minimum blood volume value is defined as 0, the normalized value, falling between 0.0 and 1.0 can quickly apprise a clinician of the patient's location on a continuum between euvolemia and cardiovascular collapse. Similar normalizing procedures can be implemented for other estimated data (such as probability of bleeding, dehydration, and/or the like).

[0077] The method 300 might further comprise displaying data with a display device (block 340). Such data might include an estimate and/or prediction of the compensatory reserve of the patient and/or an estimate and/or prediction of the patient's dehydration state. A variety of techniques can be used to display such data. Merely by way of example, in some cases, displaying the estimate of the

compensatory reserve of the patient might comprise displaying the normalized estimate of the compensatory reserve of the patient. Alternatively and/or additionally, displaying the normalized estimate of the compensatory reserve of the patient might comprise displaying a graphical plot showing the normalized excess blood volume value, the normalized normal blood volume value, the normalized minimum blood volume value, and the normalized estimate of the compensatory reserve (e.g., relative to the normalized excess blood volume value, the normalized normal blood volume value, the normalized minimum blood volume value).

[0078] In some cases, the method 300 might comprise repeating the operations of monitoring physiological data of the patient, analyzing the physiological data, and estimating (and/or predicting) the compensatory reserve of the patient, to produce a new estimated (and/or predicted) compensatory reserve of the patient. Thus, displaying the estimate (and/or prediction) of the compensatory reserve of the patient might comprises updating a display of the estimate of the compensatory reserve to show the new estimate (and/or prediction) of the compensatory reserve, in order to display a plot of the estimated compensatory reserve over time. Hence, the patient's compensatory reserve can be repeatedly estimated and/or predicted on any desired interval (e.g., after every heartbeat), on demand, etc.

[0079] In further embodiments, the method 300 can comprise determining a probability that the patient is bleeding, and/or displaying, with the display device, an indication of the probability that the patient is bleeding (block 345). For example, some embodiments might generate a model based on data that removes fluid from the circulatory system (such as LBNP, dehydration, etc.). Another embodiment might generate a model based on fluid removed from a subject voluntarily, e.g., during a blood donation, based on the known volume (e.g., 500cc) of the donation. Based on this model, using techniques similar to those described above, a patient's

physiological data can be monitored and analyzed to estimate a probability that the patient is bleeding (e.g., internally).

[0080] In some cases, the probability that the patient is bleeding can be used to adjust the patient's estimated CRI. Specifically, give a probability of bleeding expressed as Bleed at a time t, the adjusted value of CRI can be expressed as:

CRI^ ) = 1 - ((1 - CRI(t)) x ?v_Bleed(t)) (Eq

[0081] Given this relationship, the estimated CRI can be adjusted to produce a more accurate diagnosis of the patient's condition at a given point in time.

[0082] The method 300 might comprise selecting, with the computer system, a recommended treatment option for the patient, and/or displaying, with the display device, the recommended treatment option (block 355). The recommended treatment option can be any of a number of treatment options, including without limitation, optimizing hemodynamics of the patient, a ventilator adjustment, an intravenous fluid adjustment, transfusion of blood or blood products to the patient, infusion of volume expanders to the patient, a change in medication administered to the patient, a change in patient position, and surgical therapy.

[0083] In a specific example, the method 300 might comprise controlling operation of hemodialysis equipment (block 360), based at least in part on the

estimate of the patient's compensatory reserve. Merely by way of example, a

computer system that performs the monitoring and estimating functions might also be configured to adjust an ultra- filtration rate of the hemodialysis equipment in response to the estimated CRI values of the patient. In other embodiments, the computer system might provide instructions or suggestions to a human operator of the

hemodialysis equipment, such as instructions to manually adjust an ultra-filtration rate, etc. [0084] In some embodiments, the method 300 might include assessing the tolerance of an individual to blood loss, general volume loss, and/or dehydration (block 365). For example, such embodiments might include estimating a patient's CRI based on the change in a patient's position (e.g., from lying prone to standing, lying prone to sitting, and/or sitting to standing). Based on changes to the patient's CRI in response to these maneuvers, the patient's sensitivity to blood loss, volume loss, and/or dehydration can be measured. In an aspect, this measurement can be performed using a CRI model generated as described above; the patient can be monitored using one or more of the sensors described above, and the changes in the sensor output when the subject changes position can be analyzed according to the model (as described above, for example) to assess the tolerance of the individual to volume loss. Such monitoring and/or analysis can be performed in real time.

[0085] Returning to Fig. 2, based on the analysis of the data (whether data collected directly by sensors or derived data, such as CRI), the method 200 can include estimating a current blood pressure of the patient (block 220). As noted above, the analysis of the data can include analyzing the data against models of low, normal, and blood pressure conditions to identify whether the data indicates that the current blood pressure of the patient is low, normal, or high, and using similar techniques, the data can be analyzed against models of specific numeric blood pressure values. In different embodiments, the blood pressure estimate (and/or prediction) can be expressed in terms of systolic pressure, diastolic pressure, mean arterial pressure, or any combination of these values. (Each value can be modeled differently if desired, or a model might include sub-models for all three values.) In certain embodiments, the value of the blood pressure might merely be estimated and/or predicted as "low," "normal," or "high," while in other cases, an actual quantitative value of the current blood pressure might be estimated or a quantitative value of a future blood pressure can be predicted. (For instance, the models might be constructed more specifically to correlate to specific numeric values of blood pressure, or they might be constructed more generally to correlate with low, normal, and high ranges of blood pressure.)

[0086] Additionally, estimating a patient's blood pressure can include identifying whether a patient's blood pressure has changed (increased or decreased) significantly over a specified period of time. For example, using readings over a period of minutes or hours, a change in blood pressure over that time can be estimated. In other cases, readings taken periodically over a period of weeks, months, or years can be used to detect long-term changes in blood pressure. Using such techniques, a patent's response to treatment or degrading/improving health (either on an acute or a chronic basis) can be monitored.

[0087] In some cases, the estimate of a patient's blood pressure will be based on the analysis of a plurality of measured (or derived) values of a particular physiological parameter (or plurality of parameters). Hence, in some cases, the analysis of the data might be performed on a continuous waveform, either during or after measurement of the waveform with a sensor (or both), and the estimated blood pressure can be updated as measurements continue. Further, the patient's blood pressure can be measured directly (using conventional techniques), and these direct measurements (at block 235) can be fed back into the model to update the model and thereby improve performance of the algorithms in the model (e.g., by refining the weights given to different parameters in terms of estimative or predictive value).

[0088] At block 230, the method 200 can include predicting a patient's future blood pressure. Similar to the estimate of the patient's current blood pressure, the prediction of the patient's future blood pressure is based on analysis of the monitored sensor data (either analysis of the monitored data itself, analysis of parameters derived from the monitored data, such as CRI, or both). A number of different predictions can be made by various embodiments, again depending on the types of models generated to analyze the data. For instance, embodiments can predict when a patient's blood pressure will increase or decrease to a specified value. Alternatively and/or additionally, embodiments can predict when a patient's blood pressure will increase or decrease by a specified amount.

[0089] At block 235, the method 200 might include updating the model(s) based on a comparison of the patient's directly-measured (or estimated) blood pressure at a given time with the predictions made at past times. Once again, such direct measurements can be fed back into the model(s) to improve their predictive value. After models have been updated, the models can be used for further analysis of measured/derived physiological parameters, as shown by the broken lines on Fig. 2. [0090] In some cases, the method 200 comprises displaying data (block 240) indicating the blood pressure estimates and/or predictions. In some cases, the data might be displayed on a display of a sensor device (such as the device 105 illustrated by Fig. IB). Alternatively and/or additionally the data might be displayed on a dedicated machine, such as a compensatory reserve monitor, or on a monitor of a generic computer system. Different techniques can be used to display the data; in some cases, a set of colors may be used to display data (e.g., red for high blood pressure, green for normal blood pressure, and yellow for low blood pressure). In other cases, a textual and/or digital display of the data (e.g., a numeric reading of a quantitative estimated blood pressure value, a textual indicator of the estimated blood pressure value as low, normal, or high, an alphanumeric indication of when— either relative to the current date/time, such as "Two Hours" or "Three Weeks," or absolute, such as " 10:37AM" or "November 15, 2014"— the patient's blood pressure is predicted to increase or decrease to a specific level, or the like). There are many different ways that the data can be displayed, and any estimates or predictions generated by the method 200 can be displayed in any desired way, in accordance with various embodiments.

[0091] In certain embodiments, the method 200 can include selecting and/or displaying treatment options for the patient (block 245) and/or controlling a therapeutic device (block 250) based on the estimates and/or predictions of the patient's blood pressure. For example, a number of different therapeutic devices (including without limitation those described above) can be controlled to address abnormal (e.g., high or low) blood pressure conditions. As another example, if the system were being used in an outpatient or home setting and the subject's blood pressure were acutely low, a variety of treatment options could be suggested, such as: sit down if dizzy and stay at rest until symptoms resolve, confirm blood pressure result with an alternative method (e.g. cuff method), hold any anti-hypertensive medications until evaluated by a care provider, seek immediate medical attention, etc. If the system were being used in an inpatient setting, the recommendations may span a variety of potential treatment options, such as: give an estimated volume of isotonic IV fluid at a certain rate, start a specified pressor medication at a certain dosage, etc. Various therapeutic devices, such as an intravenous pump, could be directed by the system to run at certain rate to provide a certain dosage in response to the estimated blood pressure value (and/or a predicted future value). Alternatively and/or additionally, the system might continuously and/or automatically adjust such devices to achieve a desired therapeutic effect, such as blood pressure in a certain range.

[0092] Further, in certain embodiments, the method 200 can include functionality to help a patient (or a clinician) to monitor blood pressure. For example, in some cases, any blood pressure trends outside of the normal range would set off various alarm conditions, such as an audible alarm, a message to a physician, a message to the patient, an update written automatically to a patient's chart, etc. Such messaging could be accomplished by electronic mail, text message, etc., and a sensor device or monitoring computer could be configured with, e.g., an SMTP client, text messaging client, or the like to perform such messaging.

[0093] Similarly, if an alarm condition were met for another physiological parameter, that alarm could trigger a check of the current blood pressure via this the method 200, to determine whether the first alarm condition has merit or not. If not, perhaps there could be an automated silencing of the original alarm condition, since all is well at present. More generally, the blood pressure monitoring technique could be added to an ecosystem of monitoring algorithms (including without limitation those described in the Related Applications), which would inform one another or work in combination, to inform one another about how to maintain optimal physiological stability.

[0094] Fig. 4 illustrates a method 400 of employing such a self-learning predictive model (or machine learning) technique, according to some embodiments. In particular, the method 400 can be used to correlate physiological data received from a subject sensor with a measured physiological state. More specifically, with regard to various embodiments, the method 400 can be used to generate a model for predicting and/or estimating various physiological parameters, such as estimated and/or predicted blood pressure, CRI, the probability that a patient is bleeding, a patient's dehydration state, and/or the like from one or more of a number of different physiological parameters, including without limitation those described above and in the Related Applications.

[0095] The method 400 begins at block 405 by collecting raw data

measurements that may be used to derive a set of D data signals s-^, ... , s_D as indicated at block 410 (each of the data signals s being, in a particular case, input from one or many different physiological sensors). Embodiments are not constrained by the type of measurements that are made at block 405 and may generally operate on any data set. For example, data signals can be retrieved from a computer memory and/or can be provided from a sensor or other input device. As a specific example, the data signals might correspond to the output of the sensors described above (which measure the types of waveform data described above, such as continuous, non-invasive PPG data and/or blood pressure waveform data).

[0096] A set of K current or future outcomes 6 = (ο_1; ... , o_K) is hypothesized at block 415 (the outcomes o being, in this case, past and/or future physiological states, such as blood pressure values (either quantitative values or qualitative levels, such as low, normal, or high), CRI, dehydration state, probability of bleeding, etc.).

The method autonomously generates a predictive model M that relates the derived data signals s with the outcomes 6. As used herein, "autonomous," means "without human intervention."

[0097] As indicated at block 420, this is achieved by identifying the most predictive set of signals S_k, where S_k contains at least some (and perhaps all) of the derived signals s-^ ... , s_D for each outcome o_k, where k £ {1, ... , K}. A probabilistic predictive model d_k = M_k (S_k) is learned at block 425, where d_k is the prediction of outcome 0_tderived from the model Mk that uses as inputs values obtained from the set of signals S_k, for all k £ {1, ... , K}. The method 400 can learn the predictive models

6_k = M_k (£_¾.) incrementally (block 430) from data that contains example values of signals ... , s_D and the corresponding outcomes o , ... , o_K . As the data become available, the method 400 loops so that the data are added incrementally to the model for the same or different sets of signals S_t, for all k £ {1, ... , K}.

[0098] While the description above outlines the general characteristics of the methods, additional features are noted. A linear model framework may be used to identify predictive variables for each new increment of data. In a specific

embodiment, given a finite set of data of signals and outcomes ¾), (s₂, o₂), ... }, a linear model may be constructed that has the form, for all k £ {1, ... , K], o_k = fk {_.a₀ +∑f₌₁ a_is_i ) (Eq where f_kis any mapping from one input to one output, and <¾, <¾, ... , a_d are the linear model coefficients. The framework used to derive the linear model coefficients may estimate which signals s, ... , s_d are not predictive and accordingly sets the corresponding coefficients a₀, %, ... , a_d to zero. Using only the predictive variables, the model builds a predictive density model of the data, ¾), (s₂, o₂), ... }. For each new increment of data, a new predictive density models can be constructed.

[0099] In some embodiments, a prediction system can be implemented that can predict future results from previously analyzed data using a predictive model and/or modify the predictive model when data does not fit the predictive model. In some embodiments, the prediction system can make predictions and/or to adapt the predictive model in real-time. Moreover, in some embodiments, a prediction system can use large data sets not only to create the predictive model, but also predict future results as well as adapt the predictive model.

[0100] In some embodiments, a self-learning, prediction device can include a data input, a processor and an output. Memory can include application software that when executed can direct the processor to make a prediction from input data based on a predictive model. Any type of predictive model can be used that operates on any type of data. In some embodiments, the predictive model can be implemented for a specific type of data. In some embodiments, when data is received the predictive model can determine whether it understands the data according to the predictive model. If the data is understood, a prediction is made and the appropriate output provided based on the predictive model. If the data is not understood when received, then the data can be added to the predictive model to modify the model. In some embodiments, the device can wait to determine the result of the specified data and can then modify the predictive model accordingly. In some embodiments, if the data is understood by the predictive model and the output generated using the predictive model is not accurate, then the data and the outcome can be used to modify the predictive model. In some embodiments, modification of the predictive model can occur in real-time.

[0101] Particular embodiments can employ the tools and techniques described in the Related Applications in accordance with the methodology described herein perform the functions of a cardiac reserve monitor, as described herein. These functions include, but are not limited to monitoring, estimating and/or predicting a subject's (including without limitation, a patient's) current or future blood pressure and/or compensatory reserve, estimating and/or determining the probability that a patient is bleeding (e.g., internally) and/or has been bleeding, recommending treatment options for such conditions, and/or the like. Such tools and techniques include, in particular, the systems (e.g., computer systems, sensors, therapeutic devices, etc.) described in the Related Applications, the methods (e.g., the analytical methods for generating and/or employing analytical models, the diagnostic methods, etc.), and the software programs described herein and in the Related Applications, which are incorporated herein by reference.

[0102] Hence, Fig. 5 provides a schematic illustration of one embodiment of a computer system 500 that can perform the methods provided by various other embodiments, as described herein, and/or can function as a monitoring computer, CRI monitor, processing unit of sensor device, etc. It should be noted that Fig. 5 is meant only to provide a generalized illustration of various components, of which one or more (or none) of each may be utilized as appropriate. Fig. 5, therefore, broadly illustrates how individual system elements may be implemented in a relatively separated or relatively more integrated manner.

[0103] The computer system 500 is shown comprising hardware elements that can be electrically coupled via a bus 505 (or may otherwise be in communication, as appropriate). The hardware elements may include one or more processors 510, including without limitation one or more general-purpose processors and/or one or more special-purpose processors (such as digital signal processing chips, graphics acceleration processors, and/or the like); one or more input devices 515, which can include without limitation a mouse, a keyboard and/or the like; and one or more output devices 520, which can include without limitation a display device, a printer and/or the like.

[0104] The computer system 500 may further include (and/or be in

communication with) one or more storage devices 525, which can comprise, without limitation, local and/or network accessible storage, and/or can include, without limitation, a disk drive, a drive array, an optical storage device, solid-state storage device such as a random access memory ("RAM") and/or a read-only memory ("ROM"), which can be programmable, flash-updateable and/or the like. Such storage devices may be configured to implement any appropriate data stores, including without limitation, various file systems, database structures, and/or the like.

[0105] The computer system 500 might also include a communications subsystem 530, which can include without limitation a modem, a network card (wireless or wired), an infra-red communication device, a wireless communication device and/or chipset (such as a Bluetooth™ device, an 802.11 device, a WiFi device, a WiMax device, a WW AN device, cellular communication facilities, etc.), and/or the like. The communications subsystem 530 may permit data to be exchanged with a network (such as the network described below, to name one example), with other computer systems, and/or with any other devices described herein. In many embodiments, the computer system 500 will further comprise a working memory 535, which can include a RAM or ROM device, as described above.

[0106] The computer system 500 also may comprise software elements, shown as being currently located within the working memory 535, including an operating system 540, device drivers, executable libraries, and/or other code, such as one or more application programs 545, which may comprise computer programs provided by various embodiments, and/or may be designed to implement methods, and/or configure systems, provided by other embodiments, as described herein. Merely by way of example, one or more procedures described with respect to the method(s) discussed above might be implemented as code and/or instructions executable by a computer (and/or a processor within a computer); in an aspect, then, such code and/or instructions can be used to configure and/or adapt a general purpose computer (or other device) to perform one or more operations in accordance with the described methods.

[0107] A set of these instructions and/or code might be encoded and/or stored on a non-transitory computer readable storage medium, such as the storage device(s) 525 described above. In some cases, the storage medium might be incorporated within a computer system, such as the system 500. In other embodiments, the storage medium might be separate from a computer system (i.e., a removable medium, such as a compact disc, etc.), and/or provided in an installation package, such that the storage medium can be used to program, configure and/or adapt a general purpose computer with the instructions/code stored thereon. These instructions might take the form of executable code, which is executable by the computer system 500 and/or might take the form of source and/or installable code, which, upon compilation and/or installation on the computer system 500 (e.g., using any of a variety of generally available compilers, installation programs, compression/decompression utilities, etc.) then takes the form of executable code.

[0108] It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that substantial variations may be made in accordance with specific requirements. For example, customized hardware (such as programmable logic controllers, field-programmable gate arrays, application-specific integrated circuits, and/or the like) might also be used, and/or particular elements might be implemented in hardware, software (including portable software, such as applets, etc.), or both. Further, connection to other computing devices such as network input/output devices may be employed.

[0109] As mentioned above, in one aspect, some embodiments may employ a computer system (such as the computer system 500) to perform methods in accordance with various embodiments of the invention. According to a set of embodiments, some or all of the procedures of such methods are performed by the computer system 500 in response to processor 510 executing one or more sequences of one or more instructions (which might be incorporated into the operating system 540 and/or other code, such as an application program 545) contained in the working memory 535. Such instructions may be read into the working memory 535 from another computer readable medium, such as one or more of the storage device(s) 525. Merely by way of example, execution of the sequences of instructions contained in the working memory 535 might cause the processor(s) 510 to perform one or more procedures of the methods described herein.

[0110] The terms "machine readable medium" and "computer readable medium," as used herein, refer to any medium that participates in providing data that causes a machine to operation in a specific fashion. In an embodiment implemented using the computer system 500, various computer readable media might be involved in providing instructions/code to processor(s) 510 for execution and/or might be used to store and/or carry such instructions/code (e.g., as signals). In many

implementations, a computer readable medium is a non-transitory, physical and/or tangible storage medium. Such a medium may take many forms, including but not limited to, non-volatile media, volatile media, and transmission media. Non-volatile media includes, for example, optical and/or magnetic disks, such as the storage device(s) 525. Volatile media includes, without limitation, dynamic memory, such as the working memory 535. Transmission media includes, without limitation, coaxial cables, copper wire and fiber optics, including the wires that comprise the bus 505, as well as the various components of the communication subsystem 530 (and/or the media by which the communications subsystem 530 provides communication with other devices). Hence, transmission media can also take the form of waves (including without limitation radio, acoustic and/or light waves, such as those generated during radio-wave and infra-red data communications).

[0111] Common forms of physical and/or tangible computer readable media include, for example, a floppy disk, a flexible disk, a hard disk, magnetic tape, or any other magnetic medium, a CD-ROM, any other optical medium, a RAM, ROM, a PROM, and EPROM, a FLASH-EPROM, any other memory chip or cartridge, a carrier wave as described hereinafter, or any other medium from which a computer can read instructions and/or code.

[0112] Various forms of computer readable media may be involved in carrying one or more sequences of one or more instructions to the processor(s) 510 for execution. Merely by way of example, the instructions may initially be carried on a magnetic disk and/or optical disc of a remote computer. A remote computer might load the instructions into its dynamic memory and send the instructions as signals over a transmission medium to be received and/or executed by the computer system 500. These signals, which might be in the form of electromagnetic signals, acoustic signals, optical signals and/or the like, are all examples of carrier waves on which instructions can be encoded, in accordance with various embodiments of the invention.

[0113] The communications subsystem 530 (and/or components thereof) generally will receive the signals, and the bus 505 then might carry the signals (and/or the data, instructions, etc. carried by the signals) to the working memory 535, from which the processor(s) 505 retrieves and executes the instructions. The instructions received by the working memory 535 may optionally be stored on a storage device 525 either before or after execution by the processor(s) 510.

[0114] Conclusion [0115] This document discloses novel tools and techniques for estimating compensatory reserve and similar physiological states. While certain features and aspects have been described with respect to exemplary embodiments, one skilled in the art will recognize that numerous modifications are possible. For example, the methods and processes described herein may be implemented using hardware components, software components, and/or any combination thereof. Further, while various methods and processes described herein may be described with respect to particular structural and/or functional components for ease of description, methods provided by various embodiments are not limited to any particular structural and/or functional architecture but instead can be implemented on any suitable hardware, firmware and/or software configuration. Similarly, while certain functionality is ascribed to certain system components, unless the context dictates otherwise, this functionality can be distributed among various other system components in

accordance with the several embodiments.

[0116] Moreover, while the procedures of the methods and processes described herein are described in a particular order for ease of description, unless the context dictates otherwise, various procedures may be reordered, added, and/or omitted in accordance with various embodiments. Moreover, the procedures described with respect to one method or process may be incorporated within other described methods or processes; likewise, system components described according to a particular structural architecture and/or with respect to one system may be organized in alternative structural architectures and/or incorporated within other described systems. Hence, while various embodiments are described with— or without— certain features for ease of description and to illustrate exemplary aspects of those embodiments, the various components and/or features described herein with respect to a particular embodiment can be substituted, added and/or subtracted from among other described embodiments, unless the context dictates otherwise. Consequently, although several exemplary embodiments are described above, it will be appreciated that the invention is intended to cover all modifications and equivalents within the scope of the following claims.

Claims

WHAT IS CLAIMED IS: 1. A system, comprising:

one or more sensors to obtain physiological data from a patient; and

a computer system in communication with the one or more sensors, the computer system comprising:

one or more processors; and

a computer readable medium in communication with the one or more processors, the computer readable medium having encoded thereon a set of instructions executable by the computer system to perform one or more operations, the set of instructions comprising:

instructions for receiving the physiological data from the one or more sensors;

instructions for analyzing the physiological data against a pre- existing model of blood pressure;

instructions for estimating a blood pressure value of the patient, based on analysis of the physiological data against the pre- existing model; and

instructions for displaying, on a display device, an estimate of the blood pressure value of the patient.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the one or more sensors comprises a finger cuff comprising a fingertip photoplethysmograph and wherein the computer system comprises a wrist unit in communication with the fingertip photoplethysmograph, the wrist unit further comprising a wrist strap.

3. A method, comprising:

monitoring, with one or more sensors, physiological data of a patient;

analyzing the physiological data against a pre-existing model of blood pressure; estimating a blood pressure value of the patient, based on analysis of the

physiological data against the pre-existing model;

displaying, on a display device, an of the blood pressure value of the patient.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the blood pressure value of the patient is a future blood pressure value of the patient.

5. The method of claim 3, wherein the blood pressure value of the patient is a numeric value.

6. The method of claim 3, wherein the blood pressure value of the patient is a qualitative value selected from the group consisting of low blood pressure, normal blood pressure, and high blood pressure.

7. The method of claim 3, wherein estimating a blood pressure of the patient comprises performing one or more operations selected from the group consisting of estimating that the patient's blood pressure is high; estimating that the patient's blood pressure is normal; and identifying when the patient's blood pressure changes significantly over a time period.

8. The method of claim 3, wherein estimating a blood pressure value of the patient comprises performing one or more operations selected from the group consisting of: predicting when the patient's blood pressure will increase to a specific value;

predicting when the patient's blood pressure will decrease to a specific value; predicting when the patient's blood pressure will increase by a specified amount; and/or predicting when the patient's blood pressure will decrease by a specified amount

9. The method of claim 3, wherein estimating the blood pressure value comprises estimating a compensatory reserve index of the patient and estimating the blood pressure value from the estimated compensatory reserve index.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein estimating the blood pressure value comprises estimating a plurality of values of the compensatory reserve index over time and estimating the blood pressure value based on changes in values of the compensatory reserve index over time.

1 1. The method of claim 10, wherein estimating the blood pressure value based on changes in values of the compensatory reserve index over time comprises estimating the blood pressure value based on a slope of a plot of compensatory reserve index values over a time segment.

12. The method of claim 9, wherein estimating a compensatory reserve index of the patient comprises estimating a compensatory reserve index by comparing the physiological data to a model constructed using the following formula:

BF V HDD where CRI(t) is the compensatory reserve at time t, BL V(t) is an intravascular volume loss of a test subject at time t, and BL VHDD is an intravascular volume loss at a point of hemodynamic decompensation of the test subject.

13. The method of claim 9, wherein the physiological data comprises waveform data and wherein estimating a compensatory reserve index of the patient comprises comparing the waveform data with one or more sample waveforms generated by exposing one or more test subjects to state of hemodynamic decompensation or near hemodynamic decompensation, or a series of states progressing towards hemodynamic decompensation, and monitoring physiological data of the test subjects.

14. The method of claim 3, wherein the physiological data comprises waveform data, and wherein estimating the blood pressure value comprises:

comparing the waveform data with a plurality of sample waveforms, each of the sample waveforms corresponding to a different blood pressure value, to produce a similarity coefficient expressing a similarity between the waveform data and each of the sample waveforms;

normalizing the similarity coefficients for each of the sample waveforms; and summing the normalized similarity coefficients to produce an estimated blood pressure value for the patient.

15. The method of claim 3, further comprising: predicting, with the computer system, the blood pressure value of the patient at one or more time points in the future, based on analysis of the physiological data; and

displaying, with the display device, a predicted blood pressure value of the patient at one or more points in the future.

16. The method of claim 3, wherein the estimate of the blood pressure value of the patient is based on a fixed time history of monitoring the physiological data of the patient.

17. The method of claim 3, wherein the estimate of the blood pressure value of the patient is based on a dynamic time history of monitoring the physiological data of the patient.

18. The method of claim 3, wherein blood pressure value is a systolic value of the patient's blood pressure.

19. The method of claim 3, wherein blood pressure value is a diastolic value of the patient's blood pressure.

20. The method of claim 3, wherein blood pressure value is a mean arterial pressure value of the patient's blood pressure

21. The method of claim 3, wherein at least one of the one or more sensors is selected from the group consisting of a blood pressure sensor, an intracranial pressure monitor, a central venous pressure monitoring catheter, an arterial catheter, an electroencephalograph, a cardiac monitor, a transcranial Doppler sensor, a transthoracic impedance plethysmograph, a pulse oximeter, a near infrared spectrometer, a ventilator, an accelerometer, an electrooculogram, a transcutaneous glucometer, an electrolyte sensor, and an electronic stethoscope.

22. The method of claim 3, wherein the physiological data comprises blood pressure waveform data.

23. The method of claim 3, wherein the physiological data comprises plethysmograph waveform data.

24. The method of claim 3, wherein the physiological data comprises photoplethysmograph (PPG) waveform data.

25. The method of claim 3, further comprising:

generating the pre-existing model.

26. The method of claim 25, wherein generating the pre-existing model comprises:

receiving data pertaining to one or more physiological parameters of a test subject to obtain a plurality of physiological data sets;

directly measuring one or more physiological states of the test subject with a reference sensor to obtain a plurality of physiological state measurements; and correlating the received data with the physiological state measurements of the test subject.

27. The method of claim 26, wherein the one or more physiological states comprises one or more states selected from the group consisting of reduced circulatory system volume, dehydration, cardiovascular collapse or near-cardiovascular collapse, euvolemia, hypervolemia, high blood pressure, normal blood pressure, low blood pressure, and blood pressure at a specific numeric value.

28. The method of claim 26, wherein correlating the received data with the physiological state measurements of the test subject comprises:

identifying a most predictive set of signals Sk out of a set of signals si, si, ... , SD for each of one or more outcomes ok, wherein the most-predictive set of signals Sk corresponds to a first data set representing a first physiological parameter, and wherein each of the one or more outcomes ok represents a physiological state measurement; autonomously learning a set of probabilistic predictive models d_k = M_k (S_k), where o_k is a prediction of outcome ok derived from a model Mk that uses as inputs values obtained from the set of signals ¾ and

repeating the operation of autonomously learning incrementally from data that contains examples of values of signals si, si, ... , SD and corresponding outcomes 01 , 02, OK.

29. The method of claim 3, further comprising controlling a therapeutic devicense to an estimated blood pressure value of the patient.

30. An apparatus, comprising:

a computer readable medium having encoded thereon a set of instructions

executable by one or more computers to perform one or more operations, the set of instructions comprising:

instructions for receiving physiological data from one or more sensors; instructions for analyzing the physiological data against a pre-existing model of blood pressure;

instructions for estimating a blood pressure value of the patient, based on analysis of the physiological data against the pre-existing model; and instructions for displaying, on a display device, an estimate of the blood pressure value of the patient.