DE10341220A1 - Method and device for the computer-aided automated determination of consolidated, economically optimized measures for achieving / ensuring an acceptable risk level - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention relates to a method and a device for the computer-aided automated determination of consolidated, economically optimized measures for achieving / ensuring an acceptable risk level in the event of a failure of at least one technical component in a production process. By means of an application unit, an automatic risk analysis, risk assessment and a derivation of cost / benefit-optimized measures is carried out depending on the failed technical component (s), the required information relating to the technical component (s) being stored in databases and are queried automatically by the application unit.

Description

The The invention relates to a method and a device for computer-aided automated Determination of consolidated, economically optimized measures to achieve / ensure an acceptable level of risk a failure of a technical process involved in a production process Component.

The Ensuring availability of technical components, such as personal computers, Servers, networks, be it IT networks, Telecommunications networks, etc., is essential for a qualitative high-quality customer relationship of a company.

Nice The failure of a technical component can be done within the shortest possible time Time a big one customers impairment cause for themselves the company has a negative impact.

To Many companies have appropriate measures for this purpose, such as. redundant component and network structures, emergency and recovery planning, implemented to reduce the risk of customer impairment to minimize by the failure of technical components or to neutralize.

on the other hand have to the cost / investment of these measures should be profitable and in an economically justifiable relationship to their damage-reducing Effect.

Of the Invention is based on the object, a computer-aided, automated To provide a method and a device with the business management Risks due to failure of technical components under consideration the measures taken evaluated and cost / benefit optimized measures can be derived.

These Task is achieved by the characteristics of the independent claims solved.

advantageous Embodiments of the method are given in the dependent claims.

The inventive method based on an application unit for controlling the automated procedures from risk analysis to derivation cost / benefit-optimized Activities.

The required information is in special databases (DB) deposited and are automated by the application unit queried.

By The invention achieves that business risks due to the failure of existing or planned technical Components of a company based on any threat scenarios considering of damage-reducing or damage-reducing measures evaluated and cost / benefit optimized measures can be derived.

One embodiment The invention will be explained below with reference to the drawings. Result from this further features, advantages and applications of the invention.

1 shows a schematic representation of the application unit and addressable by the application unit databases and their links with each other.

2 schematically shows a calculation of the risk level by multiplying the probability of occurrence in each case with the maximum personal extent of damage, the maximum material extent of damage and the maximum immaterial extent of damage.

According to 1 is an application unit 1 with multiple databases 2 - 8th connected, wherein between the application unit and the databases, a data exchange takes place. The application unit and the databases can be realized, for example, as an expert system on a personal computer.

The following Databases are integrated into the system:

Property DB

The object type DB 2 Contains information about all sorts of objects, such as space, buildings, mobile units, etc. that are being risk analyzed. In each object, one or more technical components may be arranged.

Scenarios DB

In the scenario DB 3 contains information about known threat scenarios, which can be caused by the failure of technical components within the objects. The individual description of the manifestations, influencing factors and consequences of the individual threat scenarios are also stored in the scenario DB.

The Scenarios are assigned to the object types with regard to their mode of operation. which they affect.

Measures DB

The measures DB 4 Contains information about all available measures that can counteract the occurrence of a specific threat scenario. Each measure is assigned individual parameters and characteristics describing the measure, its assignment to sets of measures and their mode of action.

Assignment to action groups

• • Risikofinanzierung
• • Senken der Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit/des max. Schadensausmaßes
• • Notfallplanung
• • Wiederanlaufplanung

The measures are assigned to a group of measures on the basis of the criteria:

• • Risk finance
• • Lowering the probability of occurrence / of the max. extent of damage
• • Emergency Planning
• • Recovery planning

Measures of action related on threat scenarios

The Information on the mode of action of measures are in the action DB in the form of a certain damage-reducing efficiency of the measure on the risk basis value of a specific object type for a particular Scenario deposited.

Cost / Invest and implementation period the measures

The Costs, investments (in EURO) as well as the duration of implementation (in day / month / year) are for every measure also in the action DB deposited.

Measures profile DB

The action profile DB 5 includes a defined number of measures that together result in optimized efficiency. The measures that are summarized in a task profile counteract the same threat scenario in the same feature type.

Basically, several can measures profiles for a Scenario to be created. The individual measures in each action profile are not redundant in their effect; i.e. their harmless Individual effect has an additive effect on the scenario.

Risk reason Ratings Database

The risk basic valuation DB 6 contains a risk basic value. The risk basis value is a fictitious value. It describes the basic risk related to a specific threat scenario and an object type.

• • im Objekt sind nur altgemeine Standard-Maßnahmen umgesetzt und
• • das Objekt liegt in einer Region mit durchschnittlichem Risikopotenzial bezogen auf das jeweilige Szenario

The basic value is determined based on the assumptions:

• • Only old standard measures have been implemented in the object and
• • The property is located in a region with average risk potential relative to the respective scenario

• • Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit,
• • personelles Schadensausmaß
• • materielles Schadensausmaß
• • immaterielles Schadensausmaß

The risk basic value consists of the risk parameters:

• • probability of occurrence,
• • Personal extent of damage
• • material extent of damage
• • immaterial extent of damage

In addition are in the risk basic assessment DB scenario-related thresholds for the risk parameters deposited, which will be described in more detail below.

Of the Risk basis provides the reference for further risk analysis represents.

Infrastructure DB

• • Art der technischen Komponenten im Objekt
• • Anzahl der technischen Komponenten im Objekt
• • Redundanzen, technische Spezifika, Abhängigkeiten zu anderen technischen Komponenten
• • komponentenspezifische Kundenzahlen
• • Szenarien, mit Risikoeinfluss auf das Objekt
• • Ergriffene bzw. umgesetzte Maßnahmen im Objekt
• • Regionale risikoerhöhende Faktoren bezogen auf das Objekt/Szenario, z.B. Hochwasser- oder Erdbebengebiet

The infrastructure DB 7 contains information about all objects and the associated technical components. In particular, the following information is stored in the Infrastructure DB.

• • Type of technical components in the object
• • Number of technical components in the object
• • Redundancies, technical specifications, dependencies to other technical components
• • Component-specific customer numbers
• • Scenarios, with risk influence on the object
• • Measures taken or implemented in the object
• • Regional risk-increasing factors related to the object / scenario, eg flood or earthquake area

Metrics-DB

In the measured value DB 8th graded values threshold values for the risk parameters such as probability of occurrence, personal, material and immaterial damage extent are defined and assigned to unitless values.

The Unstable values are used in the application unit as the basis for calculation used for further risk analysis.

The Definition of the measured values Threshold values as well as the allocation to unitless values is for the risk analysis firmly defined. The measured variables are can be administered by application unit and to each adaptable to investigating companies.

Procedure of the procedure The following is the procedure for the tool-aided determination of consolidated, economically optimized measures to achieve / ensure an acceptable risk level step by step from the point of view of the application unit 1 described.

object definition

Based on appropriate specifications, the application unit selects 1 an object for which a risk analysis is to be performed.

The application unit 1 then automatically takes the required query in the object type DB 2 in front.

Property inventory

Based on the result from the object definition, various automated database queries of the databases are made 2 - 8th through the application unit 1 performed. These are in detail:

Inquiry of the infrastructure DB:

• • Art der technischen Komponenten, die im ausgewählten Objekt aufgebaut sind.
• • Anzahl der technischen Komponenten der selben Art, die dort aufgebaut sind.
• • Bestehende Redundanzen und netztechnische Spezifika der Komponenten.
• • Bestehende technischen Abhängigkeiten zu anderen Komponenten innerhalb und außerhalb des betrachteten Objekts?
• • Anzahl der Kunden/Nutzer, die in den einzelnen technischen Komponenten verwaltet werden.
• • Art der Maßnahmen, die in dem Objekt zur Risikominimierung ergriffen wurde

The following information is provided by the Infrastructure DB 7 queried:

• • Type of technical components that are built into the selected object.
• • Number of technical components of the same type installed there.
• • Existing redundancies and network specifics of the components.
• • Existing technical dependencies to other components inside and outside the object under consideration?
• • Number of customers / users managed in each technical component.
• • Type of action taken in the risk minimization object

Query the scenario DB:

From the scenario DB 3 Information about which scenarios apply to the object type in the scenario DB and the effect of these scenarios are read.

Query of the action DB:

A query of the action DB 4 provides information about the nature of the scenario-related, damage-reducing effect of the object-related measures.

Query of risk basic evaluation DB:

By a query of the risk basic assessment DB 6 Scenario-related risk baselines are entered that are available for the selected object type.

Query of the measured value DB:

• • Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit EW: Die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit kann zwischen den Zeitfaktoren „trifft nie ein " bis zu „trifft täglich ein" eingeordnet werden
• • Personelles Schadensausmaß PSA: Das personelle Schadensausmaß beschreibt die Auswirkung des Ausfalls von technischen Komponenten für eine oder mehrere betroffene Personen
• • Materielles Schadensausmaß MSA: Das materielle Schadensausmaß beziffert den monetären Gesamtschaden durch den Ausfall von technischen Komponenten in einer beliebeigen Währung, z.B. in EURO.
• • Immaterielles Schadensausmaß ISA: Das immaterielle Schadensausmaß beziffert die Anzahl der von einem Ausfall von technischen Komponenten betroffenen Kunden ! Nutzer bzw. das Ausmaß der Öffentlichkeitswirksamkeit.

In the measured variables database 8th If the predefined graduated measured variables are presented to the risk parameters and assigned to unitless values, in detail these are:

• • Probability of occurrence EW: The probability of occurrence can be classified between the time factors "never meets" and "meets daily"
• • Personal damage extent PSA: The extent of personal damage describes the effect of the failure of technical components for one or more affected persons
• • Material extent of damage MSA: The material extent of damage quantifies the total monetary damage due to the failure of technical components in a given currency, eg EURO.
• • Intangible extent of damage ISA: The immaterial extent of damage quantifies the number of customers affected by a failure of technical components! User or extent of publicity.

The Assignment of graduated measured quantities of the Risk parameters for the unitless values may e.g. as follows being represented. Depending on the probability of occurrence are appropriate Give points.

Example:

By the unitless values become a uniform calculation basis created an overarching standardized risk assessment at the same level. The risk levels are indicators of the p, m, i risk of the Object related to the respective threat scenario. The unitless values are administrable by the user.

Automatic risk assessment through the process

In the following step, the application unit takes 1 based on the object inventory described above, an automated risk assessment.

• • Personelle Risikostufe
• • Materielle Risikostufe
• • Immaterielle Risikostufe

There are three different risk levels:

• • Personnel risk level
• • Material risk level
• • Intangible risk level

sThe three risk levels are determined by the application unit, each individually evaluated. The risk levels are determined for each scenario. An "overarching Overall Risk Assessment "on All Risk levels are not carried out because the human, material and intangible risk levels are not comparable are.

Automatic calculation the risk levels

• • Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit, EW
• • Max. personeller Schaden, PSA
• • Max. materieller Schaden, MSA
• • Max. immaterieller Schaden, ISA

It has been described above that within the scope of the invention, for example, four risk parameters are distinguished:

• • Probability of occurrence, EW
• • Max. Personal damage, PSA
• • Max. Material damage, MSA
• • Max. Immaterial damage, ISA

The Characteristic values, that is the likelihood of occurrence, the personal, the material and the extent of immaterial damage are each unitless Assigned values that are stored in the measured value DB.

It is in 2 illustrated that for each scenario, the respective risk levels by multiplying the unitless values probability of occurrence EW with the max. Personal damage mPSA, the max. material damage mMSA and the max. immaterial damage mISA.

• • Basis-Maßnahmen, sind innerhalb einer Objektart auf jeden Fall ergriffene Maßnahmen
• • Optionale Maßnahmen, sind für jedes Objekt optional

Damage-reducing efficiency of the measures Each measure has a damage-reducing effect on certain scenarios with one or more feature types. In principle, two types of measures can be distinguished:

• • Basic measures are definitely measures taken within one type of object
• • Optional actions are optional for each object

The Scenario-related mode of action of the individual measures is determined by means of efficiency (in%) defined accordingly and stored in the action DB.

The Basic risk values of an object type are determined by the risk characteristics (EW, PSA, MSA, ISA) based on the basic measures in all objects this object type alike are implemented.

Of the Efficiency of optional measures determines its damage-reducing effect against the risk basic value.

Example:

The following measures were taken in an object; the measures have a damage-reducing effect on scenario A1. • Basic Measure A Efficiency 30% = 0.3 • Basic measure B Efficiency 10% = 0.1 • Optional action C Efficiency 70% = 0.7 • Optional action D Efficiency 50% = 0.5 • Optional measure E Efficiency 30% = 0.3

It should be the existing max. Material damage extent MSA _is calculated on the basis of the risk basis and the damage-reducing effect of the optional measures.

Principle:

• • MSA _Total describes the extent of damage in total destruction of the object.
• • MSA _risk basic _value describes the extent of damage taking into account the basic measures.
• • _MSA describes the extent of damage, taking into account the basic measures and the measures taken optional measures.
• • Efficiency _BasisM describes the efficiency with which MSA _{Total is} reduced due to the basic measures.
• • Efficiency _OptionalM describes the efficiency with which the MSA _risk basis is reduced due to the optional measures.

The calculation then looks like this: Example: Calculation of the risk basis for the material extent of damage

The Max. material damage By virtue of the three optional measures taken, it was 89.5% higher than the Risk basic value lowered.

With the other risk parameters (for example, probability of occurrence) the procedure is analogous. For Each risk parameter has its own efficiencies for action to be taken with it.

Evaluation of risk parameters

• • Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit
• • Personelles Schadensausmaß
• • Materielles Schadensausmaß
• • Immaterielles Schadensausmaß hinterlegt.

In the risk basic assessment DB, the scenario-related permitted value ranges including the regional characteristics (eg earthquake area) are the risk characteristics for each property type

• • probability of occurrence
• • Personnel extent of damage
• • Material extent of damage
• • Intangible loss amount deposited.

Determine the necessary activities

essential Component of the method according to the invention is the derivation of cost / benefit-optimized measures around the value ranges to reach the risk levels.

• • Der Risikokennwert ist innerhalb des tolerierbaren Wertebereichs einer Risikostufe. In diesem Fall ist kein Handlungsbedarf gegeben.
• • Der tolerierbare Risikokennwert ist überschritten. In diesem Fall müssen zusätzliche optionale Maßnahmen ergriffen werden
• • Der tolerierbare Risikokennwert ist unterschritten. In diesem Fall können bestehende optionale Maßnahmen eingespart werden

There are basically three result cases:

• • The risk parameter is within the tolerable value range of a risk level. In this case, there is no need for action.
• • The tolerable risk parameter has been exceeded. In this case, additional optional measures must be taken
• • The tolerable risk threshold has fallen below. In this case, existing optional measures can be saved

Selection of the action profile

• • Welches Profil hat die größte Übereinstimmung mit den ergriffenen optionalen Maßnahmen?
• • Welches Profil bietet die meisten Handlungsoptionen bzw. Anzahl der noch nicht ergriffenen Maßnahmen?
• • etc.

The application unit determines the action profiles that relate to the relevant scenario and the relevant object type. If more than one profile is determined, an action profile will be selected based on further criteria. These criteria can be:

• • Which profile is most consistent with the optional actions taken?
• • Which profile offers the most options for action or the number of measures not yet taken?
• • Etc.

The Criteria for the selection of the action profile are administrable by the user.

Target / actual comparison based on the action profiles

to The selected action requirement is determined by the selected action measures profile automatically synchronized with the measures taken in the object and those in the action profile included but not taken optional actions selected.

Added value of policy sets

The policy sets Build meaningfully on each other, so that the "value chain" is closed.

Example:

The Action Group "Lowering the likelihood of occurrence or the maximum extent of damage requirement for the emergency planning. This in turn is a prerequisite for recovery planning. The is called, that measures from each group of measures have to be taken in order to make efficient and economically sensible a possible To reduce damage. This results in the procedure described below in the determination of the proposed measures.

measures proposed

Out the selected action proposals selects the Application unit the measure (s) as follows, by seizing the risk characteristics into one acceptable threshold range.

It is checked, in which group of measures least action or measures were taken with the lowest overall efficiency.

• • Kostengünstigste Maßnahme
• • Effektivste Maßnahme (höchster Wirkungsgrad)
• • Kürzeste Umsetzungszeit der Maßnahme
• • etc.

Thereafter, the measure not taken is determined from this group of measures according to the following criteria

• • Cost-effective measure
• • Most effective measure (highest efficiency)
• • Shortest implementation time of the measure
• • Etc.

Activities, whose fixed or investment costs are so high that the total cost of ownership the measure higher than their mitigating effect are not suggested. This means, that the ratio the total cost of ownership of a total damage reduction measure must be less than 1

The Selection criteria for targeted action proposals are configurable by the user in the application unit.

Risk parameter calculation based on the proposed measures

According to the method now according to the above Example the risk parameters taking into account the proposed measure calculated. Are the risk parameters still outside? of the value range, the application unit determines with the o.g. Process another action.

This Cycle is run until the risk parameter reaches the threshold range sufficiently approximated or the profile has no action contains more to suggest. The profile should not contain sufficient measures to the risk characteristics in the value range, another profile is used.

The Application unit is thus able to cost / benefit optimized activities propose and bring the risk parameters to an acceptable level.

Implementation of the proposed activities

The The proposed measures are taken by the application unit automatically entered into the infrastructure DB as "planned." The infrastructure DB and the company-internal planning DB are adjusted accordingly.

By the planning DB is followed by the further budgeting and commissioning the measure.

To Implementation of the measure becomes the status change of the measure from the in-house planning DB automated into the infrastructure DB of the Object added and thus finds for future risk analysis in this Object consideration.

Claims (23)

Method for computer-aided automated determination of consolidated, business opti mated measures to achieve / ensure an acceptable level of risk in the event of a failure of at least one technical component in a production process, characterized in that by means of an application unit ( 1 ) an automatic risk analysis, risk assessment and derivation of cost / benefit measures is carried out depending on the failed technical component (s), with the required information related to the technical component (s) in databases ( 2 - 8th ) and are queried automatically by the application unit. Method according to Claim 1, characterized in that the application unit selects, on the basis of appropriate specifications, an object for which a risk analysis is to be carried out, whereby a required query in the object type database ( 2 ) is made. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized characterized in that as part of an object inventory on Reason of result of object selection different automated Database queries performed become. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized in that in a next step, the infrastructure database ( 7 ), in particular: the type of technical components that are built in the selected object, the number of technical components of the same type that are built there, existing redundancies and network specifics of the components, existing technical dependencies to other components within and outside the object under consideration, the number of customers / users managed in each technical component, and the type of action taken in the risk minimization object. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized in that in a next step, the scenarios database ( 3 ), in particular information about which scenarios are relevant for the respective object type in the scenario database and what impact these scenarios have. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized in that in a next step, the action database ( 4 ) and the nature of the scenario-related, damage-reducing effect of the object-related measures is queried. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized in that in a next step the risk base database ( 6 ) and the scenario-related basic risk values that exist for the object type are entered. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized in that in a next step, the measured value database ( 8th ), wherein risk parameters are represented as predefined graduated measured variables and assigned to unitless values, the risk characteristics comprising an occurrence probability EW, a personal damage extent PSA, a material extent of damage MSA, and an intangible extent of damage, ISA. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized in that in a next step by the application unit ( 1 ) an automatic risk assessment based on the object inventory is performed, whereby three risk levels, a personal risk level, a material risk level and an intangible risk level are distinguished, and each risk level is assessed individually by the application unit. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized marked that in a next step for each scenario the respective risk levels by multiplication the unitless value of the probability of occurrence EW respectively with the maximum personal damage extent, the maximum material Extent of damage and the maximum intangible extent of damage. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized marked that in a next Step of the damage-reducing efficiency of available measures queried from the measures database with the scenario-related mode of action of the individual measures is defined by an efficiency. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized in that risk basic values of an object type are determined by risk parameters with reference to the basic measures, which in all Objects of this type of object are implemented equally, the efficiency of the optional measures determines their damage-reducing effect compared to the risk basis value. Method according to one of the preceding claims, characterized characterized in that the existing maximum personnel, material and immaterial extent of damage Basis of the risk basis and the damage-reducing effect the optional measures is calculated. Device for carrying out the method according to claims 1 to 13, characterized by an application unit ( 1 ) for the automatic risk analysis, risk assessment and derivation of cost / benefit-optimized measures depending on the failed technical component (s), whereby databases ( 2 - 8th ), which contain the required information relating to the technical component (s) which are automatically queried by the application unit. Apparatus according to claim 14, characterized in that an object type database ( 2 ), which contains information about all sorts of objects, such as space, buildings, mobile units, etc., which can be subjected to a risk analysis. Device according to one of claims 14 or 15, characterized in that a scenario database ( 3 ) is provided, in which information about the known the object types associated threat scenarios and their description are stored, which can be caused by the failure of technical components within the objects. Device according to one of claims 14 to 16, characterized in that a measures database ( 4 ), which contains information on all available measures that can be taken in the event of a particular threat scenario, each measure being associated with individual parameters and characteristics describing the action, its allocation to sets of measures and their impact on the particular threat scenario. Device according to one of claims 14 to 17, characterized in that a policy profile database ( 5 ), which comprises action profiles which consist of a defined number of measures which together result in an optimized efficiency, wherein the measures which are combined in one action profile counteract the same threat scenario in the same object type. Device according to one of claims 14 to 18, characterized in that a risk basic evaluation database ( 6 ), which contains a risk basic value describing the risk related to a specific threat scenario and associated object type, where only baseline measures are taken. Device according to claim 19, characterized in that that the basic risk value is formed from several risk parameters which is an occurrence probability, a personal extent of damage, a material Extent of damage and an intangible extent of damage. Device according to one of claims 19 to 20, characterized in that the risk basic data evaluation database ( 6 ) Contains threshold values for the measured variables whose undershooting or exceeding is the basis for further database queries and calculations of the application unit. Device according to one of claims 14 to 21, characterized in that an infrastructure database ( 7 ), which contains information about all objects and the technical components associated with the objects. Device according to one of claims 14 to 22, characterized in that a measured variables database ( 8th ), in which graduated measured variables for the risk parameters such as probability of occurrence, personal, material and immaterial damage extent are defined and assigned to unitless values.