CN118297417A - Carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management method and device - Google Patents
Carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management method and device Download PDFInfo
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- CN118297417A CN118297417A CN202410387126.2A CN202410387126A CN118297417A CN 118297417 A CN118297417 A CN 118297417A CN 202410387126 A CN202410387126 A CN 202410387126A CN 118297417 A CN118297417 A CN 118297417A
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Abstract
The application relates to the technical field of carbon emission, in particular to a carbon emission peak target constraint management method and device, which can solve the problem that the prior art lacks constraint requirements of regional carbon emission quota and is difficult to stand on a park carbon peak management requirement to develop industrial development planning work to a certain extent. The carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management method comprises the following steps: collecting carbon emission data, and determining the total carbon emission amount of each unit according to each link carbon emission accounting method of each unit; predicting a total amount of carbon emissions based on the historical data; judging whether the total carbon emission of each unit reaches a carbon emission peak value according to carbon emission quota management, and obtaining a standard reaching result; and combining the predicted total carbon emission amount with the standard reaching result, providing a follow-up correction measure and suggestion, quantitatively analyzing the carbon emission quota requirement on each carbon emission unit in the park in the follow-up park carbon arrival peak management process, and providing decision support for the evaluation work of the carbon arrival peak of the whole park in the later stage.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of carbon emission, in particular to a carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management method and device.
Background
The target prediction of the peak of the park carbon arrival is important to the adjustment and optimization of the follow-up industrial structure of the park, in the previous practice process, energy-saving reconstruction measures are developed for enterprises with high energy consumption so as to realize the local carbon emission management requirement, and scientific research analysis is lacking for reasonable division of the carbon emission quota of the region, so that the system consideration of the whole park carbon emission management work is difficult, and the maximization of the park economic benefit is realized.
In addition, some experts adopt a neural network algorithm to carry out the prediction work of the carbon emission, analyze the total carbon emission and the carbon emission intensity so as to better establish a carbon emission prediction model, and further better carry out the prediction analysis of the total carbon emission so as to guide the later industrial development planning, but the constraint requirement of regional carbon emission quota is lacked, and the industrial development planning work is difficult to be carried out on the carbon arrival peak management requirement of a park.
At this time, a new method is needed to realize the management requirements such as the prediction of the total carbon emission under the peak carbon demand of the park, quota allocation, planning guidance and the like.
Disclosure of Invention
The application provides a carbon emission peak goal constraint management method and device, which are used for solving the problem that the prior art lacks constraint requirements of regional carbon emission quota and is difficult to stand on a garden to meet the carbon peak management requirements for developing industrial development planning work.
Embodiments of the present application are implemented as follows:
in a first aspect, the present application provides a method and an apparatus for managing carbon emission peak target constraint, including:
collecting carbon emission data, and determining the total carbon emission amount of each unit according to each link carbon emission accounting method of each unit;
Predicting a total amount of carbon emissions based on the historical data;
Judging whether the total carbon emission of each unit reaches a carbon emission peak value according to carbon emission quota management, and obtaining a standard reaching result;
And combining the predicted total carbon emission and the standard reaching result, and providing subsequent rectifying measures and suggestions.
In one possible implementation, the carbon emission data includes power consumption, energy consumption, process links, and other links.
In one possible implementation, the data of power consumption and the data of energy consumption are obtained through data of electricity consumption, fuel and the like of each carbon emission unit;
The data of the process links can be calculated according to specific process links and yield;
and the data of other links are analyzed according to the actual conditions of the carbon emission units.
In one possible implementation, the predicting the total amount of carbon emissions based on the historical data further includes:
summarizing all links of all carbon emission units to collect and sort historical carbon emission data;
Predicting the future carbon emission data of 1-3 years by adopting a deep learning algorithm;
and correcting through actual measurement data.
In one possible implementation, the carbon emission allowance management includes a total carbon emission allowance and enterprise allowances.
In one possible implementation manner, the determining, according to the carbon emission quota management, whether the total carbon emission of each unit reaches the carbon emission peak value, to obtain the standard reaching result, further includes:
Performing carbon emission distribution on each carbon emission unit according to the carbon emission condition and the total carbon emission quota of each unit;
quota preallocation management is carried out by combining with a carbon emission prediction result;
and (3) according to quota preallocation management of each unit, comparing the quota preallocation management with carbon emission data of each unit to obtain a standard reaching result.
In one possible implementation, the subsequent modification measures and suggestions include process modification, high energy consumption carbon emission unit elimination, and industrial structure adjustment.
In a second aspect, the present application provides a carbon emission peak target constraint management apparatus comprising:
The data collection module is used for collecting carbon emission data and determining the total carbon emission amount of each unit according to the carbon emission accounting method of each link of each unit;
the data analysis module is used for predicting the total carbon emission based on the historical data;
The quota management module is used for judging whether the total carbon emission amount of each unit reaches a carbon emission peak value according to carbon emission quota management to obtain a standard reaching result;
and the evaluation and correction module is used for combining the predicted total carbon emission and the standard reaching result to provide follow-up correction measures and suggestions.
The technical scheme provided by the application at least can achieve the following beneficial effects:
according to the carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management method and device, the historical data are collected and analyzed, so that the carbon emission quota in the carbon peak reaching management process of the subsequent park can be quantitatively analyzed to meet the requirements of each carbon emission unit in the park, and decision support is provided for the carbon peak reaching evaluation work of the whole park in the later stage.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions of the prior art, the drawings that are needed in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly described below, it will be obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present application, and that other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort to a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for carbon emission peak target constraint management according to an exemplary embodiment of the present application;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural view of a carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management apparatus according to an exemplary embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart illustrating steps of an implementation of another method for peak-to-target constraint management for carbon emissions according to an exemplary embodiment of the present application.
Reference numerals:
1. a data collection module; 2. a data analysis module; 3. a quota management module; 4. and evaluating the rectifying and modifying module.
Detailed Description
For purposes of making the objects, embodiments and advantages of the present application more apparent, an exemplary embodiment of the present application will be clearly and fully described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in which exemplary embodiments of the present application are shown, it being understood that the exemplary embodiments described are merely some, but not all, of the examples of the present application, and it is to be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the application.
It should be noted that the brief description of the terminology in the present application is for the purpose of facilitating understanding of the embodiments described below only and is not intended to limit the embodiments of the present application. Unless otherwise indicated, these terms should be construed in their ordinary and customary meaning.
The terms first, second, third and the like in the description and in the claims and in the above-described figures are used for distinguishing between similar or similar objects or entities and not necessarily for describing a particular sequential or chronological order, unless otherwise indicated. It is to be understood that the terms so used are interchangeable under appropriate circumstances.
The terms "comprises," "comprising," and "having," and any variations thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a product or apparatus that comprises a list of elements is not necessarily limited to all elements explicitly listed, but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such product or apparatus.
Before explaining the carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management method provided by the embodiment of the application, an application scene and an implementation environment of the embodiment of the application are described.
The target prediction of the peak of the park carbon arrival is important to the adjustment and optimization of the follow-up industrial structure of the park, in the previous practice process, energy-saving reconstruction measures are developed for enterprises with high energy consumption so as to realize the local carbon emission management requirement, and scientific research analysis is lacking for reasonable division of the carbon emission quota of the region, so that the system consideration of the whole park carbon emission management work is difficult, and the maximization of the park economic benefit is realized.
In addition, some experts adopt a neural network algorithm to carry out the prediction work of the carbon emission, analyze the total carbon emission and the carbon emission intensity so as to better establish a carbon emission prediction model, and further better carry out the prediction analysis of the total carbon emission so as to guide the later industrial development planning, but the constraint requirement of regional carbon emission quota is lacked, and the industrial development planning work is difficult to be carried out on the carbon arrival peak management requirement of a park.
At this time, a new method is needed to realize the management requirements such as the prediction of the total carbon emission under the peak carbon demand of the park, quota allocation, planning guidance and the like.
Based on the method and the device, the carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management method and the device can quantitatively analyze the carbon emission quota requirements of the carbon emission quota on each carbon emission unit in the park in the subsequent park carbon peak reaching management process by collecting and analyzing historical data, provide decision support for the carbon peak reaching evaluation work of the whole park in the later stage, and are used for objectively evaluating methods such as park carbon emission total amount accounting, change trend prediction, carbon peak reaching condition evaluation and the like.
Next, the technical solution of the present application, and how the technical solution of the present application solves the above technical problems will be described in detail by way of examples with reference to the accompanying drawings. Embodiments may be combined with each other, and the same or similar concepts or processes may not be described in detail in some embodiments. It will be apparent that the described embodiments are some, but not all, of the embodiments of the application.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for managing carbon emission peak reaching target constraint according to an exemplary embodiment of the present application.
In an exemplary embodiment, as shown in fig. 1, there is provided a carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management method, and in this embodiment, the method may include the steps of:
step 100: carbon emission data is collected, and the total carbon emission amount of each unit is determined according to each link carbon emission accounting method of each unit.
Step 200: based on the historical data, the total amount of carbon emissions is predicted.
Step 300: and judging whether the total carbon emission of each unit reaches a carbon emission peak value according to carbon emission quota management, and obtaining a standard reaching result.
Step 400: and combining the predicted total carbon emission and the standard reaching result, and providing subsequent rectifying measures and suggestions.
Wherein the raw data set: the method mainly comprises electric power data, energy consumption data, production process and other links of carbon emission data, wherein the electric power data and the energy consumption data can be obtained through the data of electricity consumption, fuel and the like of each carbon emission unit, the production process can be calculated according to specific process links and yield, and the other data are analyzed according to the actual conditions of each carbon emission unit.
Analysis of carbon emission data: the method mainly comprises the steps of summarizing historical carbon emission total of a park and predicting the carbon emission total of 1-3 years in the future, summarizing historical carbon emission data in the project through collecting and arranging all links of each carbon emission unit, predicting the carbon emission data of 1-3 years in the future by adopting a deep learning algorithm, and correcting through actual measuring and calculating data.
Carbon emission total management: and carrying out carbon emission distribution work on each carbon emission unit according to the carbon emission condition of each enterprise and the total carbon emission quota of the park, and simultaneously carrying out quota pre-distribution management by combining the carbon emission prediction result in the carbon emission analysis process, so as to continuously determine the carbon peak quantification condition of the whole park and better develop quota management work.
Carbon arrival peak evaluation work: after the work management requirements of the carbon peak in the park are clarified, measures such as process transformation, elimination of high-energy-consumption carbon emission units, industrial structure adjustment and the like are formulated according to the requirements of the carbon peak in the park, and the carbon peak management target is realized on the park level.
FIG. 3 is a flow chart illustrating steps of an implementation of another method for peak-to-target constraint management for carbon emissions according to an exemplary embodiment of the present application.
In one possible implementation, as shown in fig. 3, a specific implementation of the present application is as follows:
Firstly, collecting electric power data, energy consumption data, production process and other link carbon emission data, and determining the total carbon emission data of each unit according to the carbon emission accounting method of each link of each unit, which provides compliance for estimating the total carbon emission of a park.
And secondly, predicting and analyzing the total carbon emission amount of the next 1 year, 2 years and 3 years according to the historical carbon emission data of more than 10 years in the park month by month, so that a better decision basis is provided for peak management requirements of the subsequent park.
Then, by the carbon emission quota management requirement of the park, whether each carbon emission unit reaches the peak carbon emission value or not is determined, and further, subsequent rectifying measures and suggestions are provided in a targeted manner.
And finally, combining the carbon emission peak prediction condition and the carbon emission quota management requirement of the park, carrying out carbon peak evaluation work from the whole park, and promoting the early realization of the park double-carbon target.
It can be seen that, according to some embodiments of the present application, the carbon emission quota in the subsequent campus carbon arrival peak management process can be quantitatively analyzed to require each carbon emission unit in the campus, and decision support is provided for the later whole campus carbon arrival peak evaluation work.
It should be understood that, although the steps in the flowcharts relating to the above embodiments are shown in order as indicated, these steps are not necessarily performed in order as indicated. The steps are not strictly limited to the order of execution unless explicitly recited herein, and the steps may be executed in other orders. Moreover, at least some of the steps in the flowcharts described in the above embodiments may include a plurality of steps or a plurality of stages, which are not necessarily performed at the same time, but may be performed at different times, and the order of performing the steps or stages is not necessarily performed sequentially, but may be performed alternately or alternately with at least some of the other steps or steps.
The present application also provides an embodiment of the carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management apparatus, corresponding to the embodiment of the carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management method described above, using the same technical idea.
Fig. 2 is a schematic structural view of a carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management apparatus according to an exemplary embodiment of the present application.
In one exemplary embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, the carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management apparatus includes:
the data collection module 1 is used for collecting carbon emission data and determining the total carbon emission amount of each unit according to the carbon emission accounting method of each link of each unit;
a data analysis module 2 for predicting a total amount of carbon emissions based on the history data;
The quota management module 3 is used for judging whether the total carbon emission of each unit reaches a carbon emission peak value according to carbon emission quota management to obtain a standard reaching result;
And the evaluation and correction module 4 is used for combining the predicted total carbon emission and the standard reaching result to propose subsequent correction measures and suggestions.
The specific definition of the carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management apparatus may be referred to the definition of the carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management method hereinabove, and will not be described in detail herein. The above-described respective modules in the carbon emission peak target constraint management apparatus may be implemented in whole or in part by software, hardware, and combinations thereof. The above modules may be embedded in hardware or may be independent of a processor in the computer device, or may be stored in software in a memory in the computer device, so that the processor may call and execute operations corresponding to the above modules.
The technical features of the above embodiments may be arbitrarily combined, and all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are not described for brevity of description, however, as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features, they should be considered as the scope of the description.
The foregoing examples illustrate only a few embodiments of the application, which are described in detail and are not to be construed as limiting the scope of the application. It should be noted that it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the application, which are all within the scope of the application. Accordingly, the scope of protection of the present application is to be determined by the appended claims.
Claims (8)
1. The carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management method is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
collecting carbon emission data, and determining the total carbon emission amount of each unit according to each link carbon emission accounting method of each unit;
Predicting a total amount of carbon emissions based on the historical data;
Judging whether the total carbon emission of each unit reaches a carbon emission peak value according to carbon emission quota management, and obtaining a standard reaching result;
And combining the predicted total carbon emission and the standard reaching result, and providing subsequent rectifying measures and suggestions.
2. The carbon emission peak target constraint management method according to claim 1, wherein the carbon emission data includes power consumption, energy consumption, process links, and other links.
3. The carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management method according to claim 2, wherein the data of electric power consumption and the data of energy consumption are obtained by data of electricity consumption, fuel and the like of each carbon emission unit;
The data of the process links can be calculated according to specific process links and yield;
and the data of other links are analyzed according to the actual conditions of the carbon emission units.
4. The carbon emission peak target constraint management method according to claim 3, wherein the predicting the total amount of carbon emissions based on the history data, further comprises:
summarizing all links of all carbon emission units to collect and sort historical carbon emission data;
Predicting the future carbon emission data of 1-3 years by adopting a deep learning algorithm;
and correcting through actual measurement data.
5. The carbon emission peak target constraint management method according to claim 1, wherein the carbon emission allowance management includes a total carbon emission allowance and each enterprise allowance.
6. The carbon emission peak target constraint management method according to claim 5, wherein the determining whether the total amount of carbon emission of each unit reaches the carbon emission peak according to the carbon emission quota management, to obtain the standard result, further comprises:
Performing carbon emission distribution on each carbon emission unit according to the carbon emission condition and the total carbon emission quota of each unit;
quota preallocation management is carried out by combining with a carbon emission prediction result;
and (3) according to quota preallocation management of each unit, comparing the quota preallocation management with carbon emission data of each unit to obtain a standard reaching result.
7. The method for managing carbon emission peak reaching target constraint according to claim 1, wherein the follow-up modification measures and suggestions comprise process modification, high-energy-consumption carbon emission unit elimination and industrial structure adjustment.
8. A carbon emission peak reaching target constraint management apparatus, comprising:
The data collection module is used for collecting carbon emission data and determining the total carbon emission amount of each unit according to the carbon emission accounting method of each link of each unit;
the data analysis module is used for predicting the total carbon emission based on the historical data;
The quota management module is used for judging whether the total carbon emission amount of each unit reaches a carbon emission peak value according to carbon emission quota management to obtain a standard reaching result;
and the evaluation and correction module is used for combining the predicted total carbon emission and the standard reaching result to provide follow-up correction measures and suggestions.
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