CN118074140A - Planning method and planning system for optimizing and enhancing reliability of power distribution network - Google Patents
Planning method and planning system for optimizing and enhancing reliability of power distribution network Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
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- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/007—Arrangements for selectively connecting the load or loads to one or several among a plurality of power lines or power sources
- H02J3/0075—Arrangements for selectively connecting the load or loads to one or several among a plurality of power lines or power sources for providing alternative feeding paths between load and source according to economic or energy efficiency considerations, e.g. economic dispatch
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- H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of power distribution network planning, in particular to a planning method and a planning system for optimizing and enhancing the reliability of a power distribution network, which solve the problems: how to accurately judge the variation trend of the electric quantity load and reserve the construction area of the transformer substation according to the variation trend, in order to solve the problems, the invention provides a planning method, which comprises the following steps: calculating the load allowance of the power supply block according to the current load result and the power supply capacity; when the load margin is greater than or equal to a load threshold, marking the power supply block as an adjustable block; when the load margin is smaller than the load threshold, marking the power supply block as a block to be planned, acquiring the load change trend of the adjustable block, calculating the adjustment margin of the standby node according to the load change trend, and marking the power deficiency area which cannot be compensated by the power deficiency as a target area; and obtaining target areas of all blocks to be planned, and selecting the construction position of the new transformer substation according to the target areas.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power distribution network planning, in particular to a planning method and a planning system for optimizing and enhancing the reliability of a power distribution network.
Background
The construction of urban distribution network and the development of city are closely related, in order to guarantee the steady and normal operation of electric wire netting, need carry out the planning of optimality to the distribution network in city, along with the promotion of town, the consumer in the urban area increases gradually, always increase reserve node at original feeder circuit, the condition that the electricity load exceeds standard can not exist, when this kind of condition appears, carry out the transformation of feeder circuit again to whole urban area, can consume a large amount of manpower and materials, still can lead to some regions to be in and fall into the outage state, therefore, how to need to reserve the construction region of transformer substation in advance according to the development condition in city, the condition of guaranteeing the urban area electricity consumption shortens feeder circuit as far as possible, be one of the urgent needs of the problem of technical personnel in this field.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention solves the problems that: how to accurately judge the variation trend of the electric quantity load and reserve the construction area of the transformer substation according to the variation trend.
In order to solve the above problems, an embodiment of the present invention provides a planning method for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network, where the planning method includes: dividing a management area into a plurality of power supply blocks, acquiring the power supply capacity of the power supply blocks and the power load of the power supply blocks, obtaining a current load result, and calculating the load allowance of the power supply blocks according to the current load result and the power supply capacity; when the load margin is greater than or equal to a load threshold, marking the power supply block as an adjustable block; when the load margin is smaller than the load threshold, marking the power supply block as a block to be planned, and acquiring the load change trend of the block to be planned and the load increment under the load change trend; predicting the normal power supply time length of the block to be planned according to the load increment and the load margin, and the electric overload of the block to be planned after the normal power supply time length is exceeded; acquiring a feeder path of the adjustable block reaching the block to be planned, setting a standby node in the adjustable block according to the feeder path, acquiring a load change trend of the adjustable block, and calculating an adjustment allowance of the standby node according to the load change trend; when the adjustment margin is larger than the electric overload amount, connecting the spare node with the block to be planned in the normal power supply time period; when the adjustment allowance is smaller than or equal to the electric overload amount, acquiring the power deficiency areas of the block to be planned and the power deficiency amount of each power deficiency area, and recording the power deficiency areas which cannot be compensated by the power deficiency amount as target areas; and obtaining target areas of all blocks to be planned, and selecting the construction position of the new transformer substation according to the target areas.
Compared with the prior art, the technical effect achieved by adopting the technical scheme is as follows: the power supply blocks are divided, power in the management area is divided according to the transformer substation, the calculation of the load margin is more convenient, the blocks and the blocks to be planned are arranged, the power supply blocks can be intuitively seen according to the load change trend, the adjustment is needed in the planning period, the calculation of the normal power supply time length can be obtained, the specific time of the power supply assistance needed by the blocks to be planned to be externally provided can be obtained, the electric quantity needed by the blocks to be planned to be maintained in normal operation can be obtained, the calculation of the adjustment margin can be avoided, the fact that the power load of the adjustable blocks cannot be borne after the electric quantity is provided for the blocks to be planned can be avoided, the accuracy of the setting of the standby nodes is improved, the setting of the target area is more reasonable, and the feeder line path can be shortened as much as possible under the condition that the power supply of each target area is ensured.
In one embodiment of the present invention, when the load margin is smaller than the load threshold, the power supply block is marked as a block to be planned, and the load change trend of the block to be planned and the load increment under the load change trend are obtained, which specifically includes: acquiring a total load result of each power utilization unit in a block to be planned in a current power utilization period and a historical load result in a historical power utilization period; dividing the current power utilization period and the historical power utilization period into a plurality of power utilization time periods in the same mode; the load quantity of the electricity utilization unit in the electricity utilization time period of the current electricity utilization period is recorded as a first load result, and the load quantity of the electricity utilization unit in the corresponding electricity utilization time period of the historical electricity utilization period is recorded as a second load result; calculating the load change trend of each electricity utilization unit according to the first load result and the second load result, and predicting the load change quantity of each electricity utilization unit according to the load change trend; and calculating the load increment according to the load variation.
Compared with the prior art, the technical effect achieved by adopting the technical scheme is as follows: the current electricity utilization period is compared with the historical electricity utilization period, the change of the electricity utilization condition of each electricity utilization unit can be intuitively obtained, the change of the electricity utilization condition is accurate to each electricity utilization time period, and the load change quantity is calculated more accurately in a stepwise comparison mode.
In one embodiment of the present invention, a load variation trend of each electricity consumption unit is calculated according to a first load result and a second load result, and a load variation of each electricity consumption unit is predicted according to the load variation trend, specifically including: acquiring the number of second load results, and acquiring the load change rate of the first load result relative to each second load result when the number of the second load results is smaller than or equal to a reference threshold value, and acquiring the load change amount according to the average value of the load change rates; when the number of the second load results is larger than the reference threshold, selecting the second load results of the target number according to the time sequence, and calculating the change rule of the second load results; and predicting the load variation of the electricity unit according to the variation law.
Compared with the prior art, the technical effect achieved by adopting the technical scheme is as follows: the calculation of the load change rate can obtain the power fluctuation condition of the power utilization unit in the same month in the past year, and the comparison of the same month can further show the power change trend of the power utilization unit, so that the prediction of the load change amount is more accurate, and the power management and control of the area to be planned is more convenient.
In one embodiment of the present invention, predicting a load variation of an electricity unit according to a variation rule specifically includes: when the second load result and the first load result are in an ascending trend, calculating a load change coefficient according to the adjacent second load result, and predicting a load change amount according to the load change coefficient; when the second load result and the first load result show a descending trend, calculating a load change coefficient according to the second load result of the last two times, and predicting a load change amount according to the load change coefficient; when the second load result and the first load result show a fluctuation trend, calculating the load fluctuation rate between the adjacent second load results, calculating a load change coefficient according to the load fluctuation rate, and predicting the load change amount according to the load change coefficient.
Compared with the prior art, the technical effect achieved by adopting the technical scheme is as follows: the recent electric quantity change rule of the electricity utilization unit is obtained through the second load result and the first load result, the load change coefficient of the electricity utilization unit is obtained through the change rule, the load change coefficient is enabled to be more accordant with the electricity utilization habit of the electricity utilization unit, the load change coefficient is combined with the first load result to obtain the load change quantity, the load change quantity is enabled to be more accordant with the electric load of the current electricity utilization period of the electricity utilization unit, and the prediction of the load change quantity is enabled to be more accurate.
In one embodiment of the present invention, predicting a normal power supply duration of a block to be planned according to a load increment and a load margin, and an electric overload amount of the block to be planned after exceeding the normal power supply duration, specifically includes: calculating the load increment of each electricity utilization unit in each future electricity utilization period according to the load variation, and comparing the load increment with the load allowance; when the load increment in the future power utilization period is larger than the load allowance, the future power utilization period is recorded as a load overload period, and the time length between the current power utilization period and the load overload period is recorded as a normal power supply time length; and acquiring the residual load increment of the block to be planned after the load overload period, recording the residual load increment as a residual increment, and calculating the electric overload of the subsequent future electricity utilization period according to the residual increment.
Compared with the prior art, the technical effect achieved by adopting the technical scheme is as follows: the method has the advantages that the whole electricity consumption condition of the block to be planned can be obtained through the acquisition of the load increment, the mark of the load overload period can be obtained, the development of the block to be planned in the current mode, the time point that the transformer substation cannot normally supply electricity and the calculation of the normal power supply time length can be obtained, the established time limit is provided for a new transformer substation, the related units have more abundant time to solve the problem of overload work, and the normal electricity consumption of the electricity consumption units in the block to be planned is further ensured.
In one embodiment of the present invention, a feeder path of an adjustable block to a block to be planned is obtained, a standby node is set in the adjustable block according to the feeder path, a load variation trend of the adjustable block is obtained, and an adjustment margin of the standby node is calculated according to the load variation trend, specifically including: obtaining the maximum load variation of the adjustable block in the target time, and calculating the load extremum of the adjustable block according to the maximum load variation; when the load extreme value is greater than or equal to the load threshold value, the adjustable block cannot set a standby node; when the load extreme value is smaller than the load threshold value, predicting the maximum load quantity of the adjustable block in each future power utilization period according to the maximum load variation quantity, and recording the maximum load quantity as a unit extreme value; and calculating the adjustment allowance of the adjustable block in each future power utilization period according to the unit extremum.
Compared with the prior art, the technical effect achieved by adopting the technical scheme is as follows: the maximum load condition of the adjustable block within the target time can be obtained through calculation of the load extremum, the maximum load condition of each electricity utilization time period is combined, the unit extremum is calculated according to the load extremum, the electricity utilization unit used in the adjustable block can be ensured to be normally used when the standby node is started, the output power of the standby node is strictly controlled in a mode of calculating the adjustment allowance through the unit extremum, and the influence caused by electricity utilization wave in the adjustable block is reduced while the block to be planned is provided with electric power.
In one embodiment of the present invention, when the adjustment margin is less than or equal to the electric overload amount, obtaining the power loss region of the block to be planned and the power loss amount of each power loss region, and recording the power loss region which cannot be compensated for by the power loss amount as the target region, specifically including: comparing the adjustment allowance corresponding to each future power utilization period with the power consumption quantity; when the adjustment allowance is larger than or equal to the power shortage quantity, supplying power to the power shortage area through the standby node; and when the adjustment allowance is smaller than the power shortage quantity, marking the power shortage area as a target area.
Compared with the prior art, the technical effect achieved by adopting the technical scheme is as follows: by comparing the adjustment allowance with the electricity deficiency quantity, the electricity deficiency area is reduced as much as possible under the condition of insufficient adjustment allowance, and feeder lines required to be arranged for a newly built transformer substation are reduced.
In an embodiment of the present invention, there is further provided a planning system for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network, where the planning method for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network described in the above embodiment is applied to the planning system, the planning system includes: the map module is used for dividing the power supply blocks; the calculation module is used for calculating load allowance and load increment; the storage module is used for storing the current load result, and the planning system has all technical characteristics of the planning method and is not described in detail herein.
Drawings
For a clearer description of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings to be used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art;
FIG. 1 is one of the flow charts of the planning method of the present invention for optimizing and enhancing the reliability of a power distribution network;
FIG. 2 is a second flowchart of a method for optimizing and enhancing the reliability of a power distribution network according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a third flowchart of a method for optimizing and enhancing the reliability of a power distribution network according to the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of a method for optimizing and enhancing the reliability of a power distribution network according to the present invention;
fig. 5 is a system schematic diagram of a planning system for optimizing and enhancing the reliability of a power distribution network according to the present invention.
Reference numerals illustrate:
100-planning a system; 110-a map module; 120-a computing module; 130-a memory module.
Detailed Description
In order that the above objects, features and advantages of the invention will be readily understood, a more particular description of the invention will be rendered by reference to specific embodiments thereof which are illustrated in the appended drawings.
[ First embodiment ]
Referring to fig. 1, in a specific embodiment, the present invention provides a planning method for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network, where the planning method includes:
S100, dividing a management area into a plurality of power supply blocks, acquiring power supply capacity of the power supply blocks and power load quantity of the power supply blocks, obtaining a current load result, and calculating load allowance of the power supply blocks according to the current load result and the power supply capacity;
s200, when the load margin is greater than or equal to a load threshold, marking the power supply block as an adjustable block;
s300, when the load margin is smaller than a load threshold, marking the power supply block as a block to be planned, and acquiring a load change trend of the block to be planned and a load increment under the load change trend;
S400, predicting the normal power supply time length of the block to be planned according to the load increment and the load margin, and after the normal power supply time length is exceeded, carrying out electric overload on the block to be planned;
S500, acquiring a feeder path of the adjustable block reaching the block to be planned, setting a standby node in the adjustable block according to the feeder path, acquiring a load change trend of the adjustable block, and calculating an adjustment allowance of the standby node according to the load change trend;
S600, when the adjustment margin is larger than the electric overload amount, connecting the standby node with the block to be planned in the normal power supply time period;
And S700, when the adjustment allowance is smaller than or equal to the electric overload amount, acquiring the power deficiency areas of the blocks to be planned and the power deficiency amount of each power deficiency area, marking the power deficiency areas which cannot be compensated by the power deficiency amount as target areas, acquiring the target areas of each block to be planned, and selecting the construction positions of the new transformer substations according to the target areas.
In step S100, the management area may be an administrative planning area or a town, and in general, the meteorological conditions in the management area are the same in most cases, each power supply block is usually powered by one substation, and when one substation supplies power to two power supply blocks at the same time, a corresponding power supply amount needs to be set for each power supply block, so as to calculate the load margin.
In step S200, with the development of society, the power consumption load in the power supply block should be increased year by year or kept in a relatively stable range, the load threshold is set according to the scale of the substation, and when the load margin is greater than or equal to the load threshold, it is indicated that the substation can bear the power consumption of the power supply block, and there is no risk of overload operation at present.
The load threshold is smaller than the upper power supply limit of the transformer substation.
In step S300, when the load margin is smaller than the load threshold, the economy in the block to be planned is usually developed continuously, so the power consumption change in each month in the past year should be gradually increased, for most of the power consumption units, the power consumption change in the first two years is larger, more electric equipment is added in the residential area, more automation equipment is introduced into the industrial area to replace manpower, the power consumption change trend of the power consumption unit is more accurately judged, but the planning period is often more than two years, usually more than ten years, if each power consumption unit is estimated according to the fixed load increase amount, the load change amount is necessarily caused to be inaccurate, and the power consumption amount of each power consumption unit in each month in one year is also different.
In step S400, the load increment of each power consumption period of the power supply block in the planning period is obtained through prediction, when the load increment is smaller than the load margin, the power supply block can work normally, and when the load increment is larger than the load margin, the condition that the power supply block can work in overload in the planning period is indicated, at this time, the electric overload amount needs to be calculated, and a new power supply path is added for the block to be planned in the normal power supply period.
In step S500, when the power load in the adjustable block is smaller, a standby node may be newly added in the adjustable block, and when the block to be planned exceeds the normal power supply time, the standby node is powered to solve the problem of the power overload, and when the standby node is set, the standby node is judged according to the load variation trend of the adjustable block, so as to avoid the power supply shortage in the adjustable block, and after the adjustment allowance is calculated, the standby node is set according to the adjustment allowance, so as to compensate the power overload of the block to be planned.
In step S700, after the positions of the target areas are obtained, the center positions of the target areas are marked as target power supply points, when only one target power supply point is used, the radius is gradually enlarged until an area capable of building a new transformer substation exists in the circular area, when two target power supply points exist, the building positions of the new transformer substation are found on the perpendicular bisectors of the two target power supply points, when the target power supply points are greater than or equal to three, the three target power supply points are optionally divided into a group, all circumscribed circles of the target power supply points are obtained, the circumscribed circles capable of covering all the target power supply points are selected, and the circle centers of the circumscribed circles are used as the building positions of the new transformer substation.
The power supply blocks are divided, power in the management area is divided according to the transformer substation, the calculation of the load margin is more convenient, the blocks and the blocks to be planned are arranged, the power supply blocks can be intuitively seen according to the load change trend, the adjustment is needed in the planning period, the calculation of the normal power supply time length can be obtained, the specific time of the power supply assistance needed by the blocks to be planned to be externally provided can be obtained, the electric quantity needed by the blocks to be planned to be maintained in normal operation can be obtained, the calculation of the adjustment margin can be avoided, the fact that the power load of the adjustable blocks cannot be borne after the electric quantity is provided for the blocks to be planned can be avoided, the accuracy of the setting of the standby nodes is improved, the setting of the target area is more reasonable, and the feeder line path can be shortened as much as possible under the condition that the power supply of each target area is ensured.
[ Second embodiment ]
Referring to fig. 2, in a specific embodiment, when the load margin is smaller than the load threshold, the power supply block is marked as a block to be planned, the load change trend of the block to be planned and the load increment under the load change trend are obtained, which specifically includes:
S310, acquiring a total load result of each power utilization unit in the block to be planned in a current power utilization period and a historical load result in a historical power utilization period;
s320, dividing the current power utilization period and the historical power utilization period into a plurality of power utilization time periods in the same mode;
S330, the load quantity of the electricity utilization unit in the electricity utilization time period of the current electricity utilization period is recorded as a first load result, and the load quantity of the electricity utilization unit in the corresponding electricity utilization time period of the historical electricity utilization period is recorded as a second load result;
S340, calculating a load change trend of each electricity utilization unit according to the first load result and the second load result, and predicting the load change quantity of each electricity utilization unit according to the load change trend; and calculating the load increment according to the load variation.
In step S310, the data management base stores the electricity consumption condition of each electricity consumption unit, monitors the electricity consumption in real time in each electricity consumption period, and obtains the electricity consumption load of the electricity consumption unit after the electricity consumption period is over.
In step S320, each power consumption period is divided by year, each power consumption period is divided by month, the time length of the current power consumption period and the time length of the historical power consumption period are the same, and the number of the divided power consumption periods is the same.
In step S330, the first load result is obtained by statistics from the data management base after the current power consumption period is over, and the second load result needs to call the power consumption situation corresponding to the month of each year before the current power consumption period from the data management base according to the month of the current power consumption period.
For example, when the first load result corresponds to the electricity consumption situation of the electricity consumption unit in 2024, the electricity consumption situation of the electricity consumption unit in 3 months in the past needs to be obtained from the data management database when the second load result is obtained.
In step S340, the electricity consumption condition of each electricity consumption unit in the month can be obtained through the electricity consumption condition of the same month in the past year, the load variation trend of each electricity consumption unit in the block to be planned is obtained, and the load variation of each electricity consumption unit is added to obtain the load increment of the block to be planned.
The current electricity utilization period is compared with the historical electricity utilization period, the change of the electricity utilization condition of each electricity utilization unit can be intuitively obtained, the change of the electricity utilization condition is accurate to each electricity utilization time period, and the load change quantity is calculated more accurately in a stepwise comparison mode.
[ Third embodiment ]
Referring to fig. 3, in a specific embodiment, the load variation trend of each electricity consumption unit is calculated according to the first load result and the second load result, and the load variation of each electricity consumption unit is predicted according to the load variation trend, which specifically includes:
S341, acquiring the number of second load results, and when the number of the second load results is smaller than or equal to a reference threshold value, acquiring the load change rate of the first load result relative to each second load result, and acquiring the load change quantity according to the average value of the load change rates;
S342, when the number of the second load results is larger than a reference threshold, selecting the second load results of the target number according to the time sequence, and calculating the change rule of the second load results;
S343, predicting the load variation of the electricity unit according to the variation law.
In step S341, the reference threshold is typically 2, and when the number of second load results is equal to or less than the reference threshold, it is indicated that the power consumption of the electricity unit is still in the fast-rise phase, and the determination can be made by the average increment of the past year.
The number of the second load results is n, which are respectively marked as A 1 to A n, the first load result is A 0, the load change rate is P, the load change amount is delta F, and the second load result, the first load result and the load change rate satisfy the following relation:
when n=2, p= (a 0－A1）÷A1＋（A0－A2）÷A2 ] ≡2;
when n=1, p= (a 0－A1）÷A1.
The following relationship is satisfied between the load change amount and the load change rate:
△F=A0×（1+P）。
In step S342, when the number of the second load results is less than or equal to the reference threshold, it is indicated that the power consumption of the electricity consumption unit tends to be in a stable stage, the target number is generally 3, a change rule is obtained through the three second load results, and the change of the load amount of the electricity consumption unit is determined through the change rule and the first load result.
The calculation of the load change rate can obtain the power fluctuation condition of the power utilization unit in the same month in the past year, and the comparison of the same month can further show the power change trend of the power utilization unit, so that the prediction of the load change amount is more accurate, and the power management and control of the area to be planned is more convenient.
[ Fourth embodiment ]
In a specific embodiment, the method for predicting the load variation of the electricity unit according to the variation rule specifically includes:
s342a, calculating a load change coefficient according to the adjacent second load result when the second load result and the first load result are in an ascending trend, and predicting the load change amount according to the load change coefficient;
S342b, calculating a load change coefficient according to the second load result of the last two times when the second load result and the first load result are in a descending trend, and predicting the load change amount according to the load change coefficient;
And S342c, when the second load result and the first load result show a fluctuation trend, calculating the load fluctuation rate between the adjacent second load results, calculating a load change coefficient according to the load fluctuation rate, and predicting the load change amount according to the load change coefficient.
In step S342a, when the second load result is greater than the reference threshold, it is indicated that the electricity consumption unit has developed for a longer time in the area to be planned, three historical electricity consumption periods closest to the current electricity consumption period are selected, three second load results are obtained, and the rising amplitude of two adjacent electricity consumption periods is calculated according to the three second load results and the first load result.
The first load result is recorded as A 0, the three second load results are sequenced according to the time sequence of the current power utilization period, the time sequence is recorded as A 1 to A 3 from far to near, 3 groups of ascending amplitudes can be obtained through the first load result and the second load result, the ascending amplitudes are respectively recorded as B 1 to B 3, and the ascending amplitudes, the first load result and the second load result satisfy the following relations:
B1=（A2－A1）÷A1；
B2=（A3－A2）÷A2；
B3=（A0－A3）÷A3。
The load change amount is obtained by a first load result and a load change coefficient, wherein the load change coefficient is C, the load change amount DeltaF=A 0 ×C, and the load change coefficient and the rising amplitude meet the following relation:
when B 3≤B2≤B1, c=b 3×（1＋B3－B2);
when B 1≤B2≤B3, c=b 3;
When B 1、B2、B3 does not satisfy the two conditions, C takes the maximum value of the three of B 1、B2 and B 3.
For example, a 0=120kw,A1=50kw,A2=80kw,A3 =100 kw, where B 1=60%,B2=25%,B3 =20%, B 3≤B2≤B1 is satisfied, where c=0.2× (1+0.2-0.25) =19%, Δf=120×0.19=22.8 kw.
In step S342b, the power consumption of the electricity unit decreases year by year, and the load change coefficient is calculated directly according to the first load result and the nearest second load result, for example, a 0=120kw,A1=150kw,A2=140kw,A3 =130 kw, and the load change coefficient is calculated according to a 3 and a 0 as C, c= (a 0－A3）÷A0,△F=A0 ×c.
In step S342c, when the load is in a fluctuation trend, it is indicated that the electricity consumption condition of the electricity consumption unit is relatively stable, the reason for the occurrence of fluctuation is mainly the difference of daily use frequency, and when the load fluctuation rate of the adjacent second load result is obtained, the average load fluctuation rate of the second load result is calculated, so as to obtain the load change coefficient.
For example, a 0=100kw,A1=100kw,A2=80kw,A3 =120 kw, where B 1－20%,B2=50%,B3 = -16.67%, the average load fluctuation ratio is B 0,B0=（B1＋B2＋B3)/(3=13.33%, and c=b 0.
When the load variation is obtained through prediction, not only the load of the next electricity utilization period of the electricity utilization unit can be obtained, but also the load of the next electricity utilization period can be calculated by using the load variation obtained through prediction for the electricity utilization unit with the number of the second load results being larger than the reference threshold value, and the load of the subsequent electricity utilization period can be continuously predicted until the end of the planning period is predicted.
The recent electric quantity change rule of the electricity utilization unit is obtained through the second load result and the first load result, the load change coefficient of the electricity utilization unit is obtained through the change rule, the load change coefficient is enabled to be more accordant with the electricity utilization habit of the electricity utilization unit, the load change coefficient is combined with the first load result to obtain the load change quantity, the load change quantity is enabled to be more accordant with the electric load of the current electricity utilization period of the electricity utilization unit, and the prediction of the load change quantity is enabled to be more accurate.
[ Fifth embodiment ]
Referring to fig. 4, in a specific embodiment, predicting a normal power supply duration of a block to be planned according to a load increment and a load margin, and an electric overload amount of the block to be planned after the normal power supply duration is exceeded specifically includes:
s410, calculating the load increment of each electricity utilization unit in each future electricity utilization period according to the load variation, and comparing the load increment with the load allowance;
S420, when the load increment in the future power utilization period is larger than the load allowance, the future power utilization period is recorded as a load overload period, and the time length between the current power utilization period and the load overload period is recorded as a normal power supply time length;
and S430, acquiring the residual load increment of the block to be planned after the load overload period, recording the residual load increment as a residual increment, and calculating the electric overload of the subsequent future electricity utilization period according to the residual increment.
In step S410, after the load variation of each electricity consumption unit in the future electricity consumption period is predicted, the load variation of all the electricity consumption units in the area to be planned is added to obtain a load increment, the load increment is subtracted from the load margin corresponding to each future electricity consumption period, and the maximum power consumption of the future electricity consumption period in the planning period is screened out.
In step S420, the load increment in the area to be planned will change in each power consumption period, if the load increment is always smaller than the load margin in the planning period, the power supply mode of the block to be planned does not need to be changed, and when the load increment is larger than the load margin, the time of the load overload period is recorded, and the normal power supply duration is calculated. For example, the current power utilization period is 2024, 3 months, the load overload period is 2025, 5 months, and the normal power supply period is 14 months.
In step S430, after the remaining increment is the load overload period until the end of the planning period, the maximum value of the load increment in the future power utilization period is recorded as the overload period, the compensation coefficient of the electric overload amount is obtained according to the overload period, the longer the time length is, the larger the compensation coefficient is, the remaining increment is recorded as F 0, the overload period is T years, the compensation coefficient is S, the electric overload amount is F 1, and the following relations among the electric overload amount, the remaining increment, the overload period and the compensation coefficient are satisfied:
When T is less than or equal to 1, s=1;
when T is more than 1 and less than or equal to 3, S=1.1;
when T > 3, s=1.2;
F1=F0×S。
it should be noted that, the longer the overload time, the larger the electricity overload amount to be reserved for the block to be planned, so as to avoid that the electricity requirement of the block to be planned still cannot be met after the transformer substation is newly built.
The method has the advantages that the whole electricity consumption condition of the block to be planned can be obtained through the acquisition of the load increment, the mark of the load overload period can be obtained, the development of the block to be planned in the current mode, the time point that the transformer substation cannot normally supply electricity and the calculation of the normal power supply time length can be obtained, the established time limit is provided for a new transformer substation, the related units have more abundant time to solve the problem of overload work, and the normal electricity consumption of the electricity consumption units in the block to be planned is further ensured.
[ Sixth embodiment ]
In a specific embodiment, obtaining a feeder path of the adjustable block to the block to be planned, setting a standby node in the adjustable block according to the feeder path, obtaining a load change trend of the adjustable block, and calculating an adjustment margin of the standby node according to the load change trend, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s510, obtaining the maximum load variation of the adjustable block in the target time, and calculating the load extremum of the adjustable block according to the maximum load variation;
s520, when the load extreme value is greater than or equal to the load threshold value, the adjustable block cannot be provided with a standby node, and when the load extreme value is smaller than the load threshold value, the maximum load quantity of the adjustable block in each future electricity utilization period is predicted according to the maximum load variation quantity and is recorded as a unit extreme value;
S530, calculating the adjustment allowance of the adjustable block in each future power utilization period according to the unit extremum.
In step S510, although the load of the adjustable block in the current power cycle is smaller than the load threshold, the principle of preferentially satisfying the internal power supply of the adjustable block is inherited, and the standby node cannot be directly established to supply power to the block to be planned, so that the load extremum of the adjustable block needs to be calculated.
The target time is typically three years, three historical electricity utilization periods of each month are obtained, the maximum load quantity of the month is screened out from the three historical electricity utilization periods, and the maximum load quantity of each month from the month of January to the month of Defebruary in the three years is obtained by analogy, and the load extreme value of the adjustable block in the future electricity utilization period is calculated according to the maximum load quantity corresponding to twelve months.
In step S520, when the load extremum is smaller than the load threshold, it is indicated that there is no problem in the internal power supply of the adjustable block, the standby node may be set to supply power to the block to be planned, and the maximum load amount of the corresponding future power utilization period is obtained through the maximum load amount of each month, and the unit extremum is calculated according to the maximum load amount.
In step S530, the unit extremum of the adjustable block is recorded as M 0, the load threshold is recorded as M 1, the maximum load of the future power cycle is recorded as M 2, the adjustment margin is recorded as N, and the calculation formula of the adjustment margin is as follows:
N=（M0－M1）÷2＋M1－M2。
The maximum load condition of the adjustable block within the target time can be obtained through calculation of the load extremum, the maximum load condition of each electricity utilization time period is combined, the unit extremum is calculated according to the load extremum, the electricity utilization unit used in the adjustable block can be ensured to be normally used when the standby node is started, the output power of the standby node is strictly controlled in a mode of calculating the adjustment allowance through the unit extremum, and the influence caused by electricity utilization wave in the adjustable block is reduced while the block to be planned is provided with electric power.
[ Seventh embodiment ]
In a specific embodiment, when the adjustment margin is less than or equal to the electric overload, acquiring the power-deficient area of the block to be planned and the power-deficient amount of each power-deficient area, and marking the power-deficient area which cannot be compensated by the power-deficient amount as the target area, specifically including:
S710, comparing the adjustment allowance corresponding to each future power utilization period with the power consumption quantity;
and S720, when the adjustment allowance is larger than or equal to the electric quantity, supplying power to the electric quantity deficiency area through the standby node, and when the adjustment allowance is smaller than the electric quantity deficiency, marking the electric quantity deficiency area as a target area.
In step S710 to step S720, when the adjustment margin is greater than the power loss, it is indicated that the adjustable block can solve the power loss condition of the block to be planned, and when the adjustment margin is less than the power loss, it is indicated that the adjustable block can only solve part of the power loss regions, at this time, the power loss regions are ordered from small to large according to the power loss, the adjustment margin sequentially supplies power to the power loss regions according to the order, so as to reduce the power loss regions as far as possible, reduce the feeder line required by the newly built transformer substation, and reduce the labor cost.
By comparing the adjustment allowance with the electricity deficiency quantity, the electricity deficiency area is reduced as much as possible under the condition of insufficient adjustment allowance, and feeder lines required to be arranged for a newly built transformer substation are reduced.
[ Eighth embodiment ]
Referring to fig. 5, in a specific embodiment, the present invention further provides a planning system 100 for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network, where the planning method for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network described in the foregoing embodiment is applied to the planning system 100, and the planning system 100 includes: the map module 110 is used for dividing the power supply blocks; a calculation module 120, wherein the calculation module 120 is used for calculating a load margin and a load increment; the storage module 130, the storage module 130 is configured to store the current load result, and the planning system 100 has all the technical features of the above-mentioned planning method, which are not described herein in detail.
Although the present invention is disclosed above, the present invention is not limited thereto. Various changes and modifications may be made by one skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, and the scope of the invention should be assessed accordingly to that of the appended claims.
Claims (8)
1. A planning method for optimizing and enhancing the reliability of a power distribution network, the planning method comprising:
Dividing a management area into a plurality of power supply blocks, obtaining the power supply capacity of the power supply blocks and the power load quantity of the power supply blocks, obtaining a current load result, and calculating the load allowance of the power supply blocks according to the current load result and the power supply capacity;
when the load margin is greater than or equal to a load threshold, marking the power supply block as an adjustable block;
When the load margin is smaller than the load threshold, marking the power supply block as a block to be planned, and acquiring a load change trend of the block to be planned and a load increment under the load change trend;
Predicting the normal power supply time length of the block to be planned according to the load increment and the load margin, and the electric overload amount of the block to be planned after the normal power supply time length is exceeded;
Acquiring a feeder line path of the adjustable block reaching the block to be planned, setting a standby node in the adjustable block according to the feeder line path, acquiring the load change trend of the adjustable block, and calculating an adjustment allowance of the standby node according to the load change trend;
when the adjustment margin is larger than the electric overload amount, connecting the standby node with the block to be planned in the normal power supply duration;
When the adjustment allowance is smaller than or equal to the electric overload amount, acquiring a power-deficient area of the block to be planned and power-deficient amounts of the power-deficient areas, and marking the power-deficient area which cannot be compensated by the power-deficient amounts as a target area;
And acquiring the target areas of the blocks to be planned, and selecting the construction position of a new transformer substation according to the target areas.
2. The method for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein when the load margin is smaller than the load threshold, marking the power supply block as a block to be planned, obtaining a load change trend of the block to be planned, and a load increment under the load change trend, specifically comprising:
acquiring a total load result of each power utilization unit in the block to be planned in a current power utilization period and a historical load result in a historical power utilization period;
dividing the current power utilization period and the historical power utilization period into a plurality of power utilization time periods in the same mode;
The load quantity of the electricity utilization unit in the electricity utilization time period of the current electricity utilization period is recorded as a first load result, and the load quantity of the electricity utilization unit in the corresponding electricity utilization time period of the historical electricity utilization period is recorded as a second load result;
Calculating the load change trend of each electricity utilization unit according to the first load result and the second load result, and predicting the load change quantity of each electricity utilization unit according to the load change trend;
And calculating the load increment according to the load variation.
3. The method for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network according to claim 2, wherein calculating a load variation trend of each power utilization unit according to the first load result and the second load result, and predicting a load variation of each power utilization unit according to the load variation trend, specifically comprises:
Acquiring the number of the second load results, and acquiring the load change rate of the first load result relative to each second load result when the number of the second load results is smaller than or equal to a reference threshold value, and acquiring the load change quantity according to the average value of the load change rates;
When the number of the second load results is larger than the reference threshold, selecting a target number of the second load results according to a time sequence, and calculating a change rule of the second load results;
and predicting the load variation of the electricity utilization unit according to the variation law.
4. A method for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network according to claim 3, wherein said predicting said load variation of said electricity usage unit according to said variation law comprises:
When the second load result and the first load result are in an ascending trend, calculating a load change coefficient according to the adjacent second load result, and predicting the load change amount according to the load change coefficient;
when the second load result and the first load result show a descending trend, calculating the load change coefficient according to the second load result of the last two times, and predicting the load change amount according to the load change coefficient;
When the second load result and the first load result show a fluctuation trend, calculating the load fluctuation rate between the adjacent second load results, calculating the load change coefficient according to the load fluctuation rate, and predicting the load change amount according to the load change coefficient.
5. A method for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network according to claim 3, wherein the predicting the normal power supply duration of the block to be planned according to the load increment and the load margin, and the electrical overload of the block to be planned after exceeding the normal power supply duration specifically includes:
calculating the load increment of each electricity utilization unit in each future electricity utilization period according to the load variation, and comparing the load increment with the load allowance;
When the load increment in the future power utilization period is larger than the load allowance, the future power utilization period is recorded as a load overload period, and the time length between the current power utilization period and the load overload period is recorded as the normal power supply time length;
and acquiring the load increment remained in the block to be planned after the load overload period, recording the load increment as a remained increment, and calculating the electric overload of the subsequent future electricity utilization period according to the remained increment.
6. The method for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network according to claim 5, wherein the steps of obtaining a feeder path of the adjustable block to the block to be planned, setting a standby node in the adjustable block according to the feeder path, obtaining the load variation trend of the adjustable block, and calculating an adjustment margin of the standby node according to the load variation trend comprise:
Obtaining the maximum load variation of the adjustable block in the target time, and calculating the load extremum of the adjustable block according to the maximum load variation;
when the load extremum is greater than or equal to the load threshold, the adjustable block cannot set a standby node;
When the load extreme value is smaller than the load threshold value, predicting the maximum load quantity of the adjustable block in each future electricity utilization period according to the maximum load variation, and recording the maximum load quantity as a unit extreme value;
and calculating the adjustment margin of the adjustable block in each future electricity utilization period according to the unit extremum.
7. The method for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network according to claim 6, wherein when the adjustment margin is smaller than or equal to the electric overload amount, acquiring a power shortage area of the block to be planned and power shortage amounts of the power shortage areas, and recording the power shortage area which cannot be compensated for by the power shortage amounts as a target area, specifically comprising:
comparing the adjustment margin corresponding to each future power utilization period with the power consumption quantity;
When the adjustment allowance is larger than or equal to the electricity consumption amount, the standby node supplies power to the electricity consumption area;
And when the adjustment allowance is smaller than the power shortage quantity, the power shortage area is marked as a target area.
8. A planning system for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network, wherein the planning method for optimizing and enhancing reliability of a power distribution network according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is applied to the planning system, and the planning system comprises:
the map module is used for dividing the power supply block;
a calculation module for calculating the load margin and the load increment;
and the storage module is used for storing the current load result.
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