CN117852912A - Crop planting income measuring and calculating method and system - Google Patents
Crop planting income measuring and calculating method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a crop planting yield measuring and calculating method and system, wherein the method comprises the following steps: analyzing based on the first planting management scheme to obtain predicted yield data of crops; predicting planting cost data of crops according to the first planting management scheme by combining historical meteorological data; calculating according to the predicted yield data, the planting cost data and the market predicted price of the crop maturation time to obtain first predicted planting yields of crops; dynamically updating the first predicted planting yield of the crop according to the real-time growth data of the crop; when the first predicted planting yield is smaller than a first preset threshold value, adjusting the first predicted planting scheme based on the second planting management scheme; and recalculating the first predicted planting yield of the crop according to the predicted yield data and the planting cost data obtained by the adjusted first planting management scheme. The invention adjusts the crop planting management scheme by predicting the planting income on the basis of considering the yield and the planting cost, thereby improving the crop planting income.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of agricultural production, in particular to a crop planting yield measuring and calculating method and system.
Background
With the development of computer technology and the Internet, a crop planting income measuring and calculating method has made a major breakthrough. The big data technology enables a large amount of crop growth data to be collected and integrated, and provides a richer information source for crop planting income measurement and calculation. Meanwhile, technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning bring new possibilities for crop planting income measurement and calculation. For example, the functions of crop planting risk assessment, intelligent planting suggestion and the like can be realized by utilizing the technologies.
Then in the actual agricultural production process, the crop yield is mainly emphasized by the planting management method of the crops because the crops with high yield and high quality can bring more income. However, merely pursuing an increase in yield may ignore the problem of planting costs, resulting in low planting yields. Therefore, in order to ensure yield and simultaneously consider planting cost, improvement and perfection of a crop planting income measuring and calculating method are required.
Therefore, the prior art has defects, and improvement is needed.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above problems, the present invention aims to provide a method and a system for measuring and calculating crop planting yields, which can adjust a planting management method according to predicted planting yields of crops, ensure crop yields and improve crop planting yields.
The first aspect of the invention provides a crop planting yield measuring and calculating method, which comprises the following steps:
analyzing based on the first planting management scheme to obtain predicted yield data a of crops 1 ；
Predicting planting cost data b for the crop in accordance with the first planting management scheme in combination with historical meteorological data 1 ；
Based on the predicted yield data a 1 The planting cost data b 1 And a market forecast price c for the maturity time of said crop 1 Calculating to obtain first predicted planting yields of the crops;
dynamically updating the first predicted planting yield of the crop according to the real-time growth data of the crop;
when the first predicted planting yield is smaller than a first preset threshold value, adjusting the first predicted planting scheme based on a second planting management scheme;
according to the adjusted first planting management schemeThe predicted yield data a obtained 2 And planting cost data b 2 A first predicted planting yield for the crop is recalculated.
In this aspect, the dynamically updating the first predicted planting yield of the crop according to the real-time growth data of the crop includes:
acquiring actual growth data of the crop;
calculating a growth ratio of actual growth data of the crop to predicted growth data of a first planting management scheme;
Judging whether the growth ratio is in a second preset threshold interval or not;
if yes, no treatment is carried out;
if not, recalculating the predicted yield data a of the crop according to the actual growth data of the crop 3 And based on the predicted yield data a 3 A first predicted planting yield for the crop is recalculated.
In this scheme, based on the second planting management scheme, adjust the first prediction planting scheme, include:
analyzing according to the actual growth data of the crops in the current growth stage, and determining the cause of the abnormality;
and analyzing the second planting management scheme based on the abnormality reasons, and adjusting or replacing the sub-management scheme of the first planting management scheme by using the sub-management method of the second planting management scheme for the current growth stage of the crops.
In this scheme, still include:
after each growth stage is finished, respectively calculating second planting cost data b of the second planting management scheme according to the rest growth stages 3 Second predicted yield data a 4 And crop maturation time;
determining a second market forecast price c based on the time of maturity of the crop 2 ；
Predicting price c based on the second market 2 Second predicted yield data a 4 And second planting cost data b 3 Calculating a second predicted planting yield;
calculating a first benefit ratio of the second predicted planting benefit and the first predicted planting benefit;
if the first income ratio is larger than a second preset threshold value, generating a planting management scheme adjustment application according to the second planting management scheme, and sending the planting management scheme adjustment application to a preset terminal;
and replacing the first planting management scheme according to the first feedback information.
In this scheme, still include:
according to the growth score and the seed planting cost data b of each growth stage 4 Analyzing, based on the first planting management scheme and the second planting management scheme, selecting a corresponding sub-planting management scheme for each growth stage;
splicing the sub-planting management schemes corresponding to each growth stage to obtain a third planting management scheme;
calculating according to the third planting management scheme to obtain third predicted planting yields of the crops;
calculating a second benefit ratio of the third predicted planting benefit and the first predicted planting benefit;
when the second benefit ratio is greater than a third preset threshold, performing planting management on the crops through the third planting management scheme;
And otherwise, performing planting management on the crops through the first planting management scheme.
In this scheme, still include:
the predicted yield data a of the crops are calculated by a preset crop growth model.
In this scheme, still include:
drawing a market fluctuation curve of the current crop when maturing according to the historical time length data;
selecting one or more peak intervals from the duration fluctuation curve for analysis, and adjusting the planting management scheme to ensure that the crop maturation time meets the corresponding date of the one or more peak intervals respectively to obtain one or more fourth planting management schemes;
predicting the yield according to the fourth planting management scheme to obtain fourth predicted planting yields of the crops;
performing risk assessment according to the fourth planting management scheme to obtain risk assessment data;
transmitting the fourth predicted planting yields and the risk assessment data to a preset terminal;
and adjusting the planting management scheme according to the second feedback information.
In this scheme, still include:
the planting cost data b comprises equipment use maintenance cost, labor cost and agricultural cost.
A second aspect of the present invention provides a crop planting yield measuring system comprising:
The crop yield prediction module is used for analyzing based on the first planting management scheme to obtain predicted yield data a of crops 1 ；
A planting cost prediction module for predicting planting cost data b of the crop according to the first planting management scheme in combination with historical meteorological data 1 ；
A planting income prediction module for predicting yield data a according to the prediction 1 The planting cost data b 1 And a market forecast price c for the maturity time of said crop 1 Calculating to obtain first predicted planting yields of the crops;
the planting income updating module is used for dynamically updating the first predicted planting income of the crops according to the real-time growth data of the crops;
the planting scheme adjusting module is used for adjusting the first predicted planting scheme based on a second planting management scheme when the first predicted planting income is smaller than a first preset threshold value; predicted yield data a based on adjusted first planting management scheme 2 And planting cost data b 2 A first predicted planting yield for the crop is recalculated.
In this aspect, the dynamically updating the first predicted planting yield of the crop according to the real-time growth data of the crop includes:
Acquiring actual growth data of the crop;
calculating a growth ratio of actual growth data of the crop to predicted growth data of a first planting management scheme;
judging whether the growth ratio is in a second preset threshold interval or not;
if yes, no treatment is carried out;
if not, recalculating the predicted yield data a of the crop according to the actual growth data of the crop 3 And based on the predicted yield data a 3 A first predicted planting yield for the crop is recalculated.
In this scheme, based on the second planting management scheme, adjust the first prediction planting scheme, include:
analyzing according to the actual growth data of the crops in the current growth stage, and determining the cause of the abnormality;
and analyzing the second planting management scheme based on the abnormality reasons, and adjusting or replacing the sub-management scheme of the first planting management scheme by using the sub-management method of the second planting management scheme for the current growth stage of the crops.
In this scheme, still include:
after each growth stage is finished, respectively calculating second planting cost data b of the second planting management scheme according to the rest growth stages 3 Second predicted yield data a 4 And crop maturation time;
determining a second market forecast price c based on the time of maturity of the crop 2 ；
Predicting price c based on the second market 2 Second predicted yield data a 4 And second planting cost data b 3 Calculating a second predicted planting yield;
calculating a first benefit ratio of the second predicted planting benefit and the first predicted planting benefit;
if the first income ratio is larger than a second preset threshold value, generating a planting management scheme adjustment application according to the second planting management scheme, and sending the planting management scheme adjustment application to a preset terminal;
and replacing the first planting management scheme according to the first feedback information.
In this scheme, still include:
according to the growth score and the seed planting cost data b of each growth stage 4 Analyzing, based on the first planting management scheme and the second planting management scheme, selecting a corresponding sub-planting management scheme for each growth stage;
splicing the sub-planting management schemes corresponding to each growth stage to obtain a third planting management scheme;
calculating according to the third planting management scheme to obtain third predicted planting yields of the crops;
Calculating a second benefit ratio of the third predicted planting benefit and the first predicted planting benefit;
when the second benefit ratio is greater than a third preset threshold, performing planting management on the crops through the third planting management scheme;
and otherwise, performing planting management on the crops through the first planting management scheme.
In this scheme, still include:
the predicted yield data a of the crops are calculated by a preset crop growth model.
In this scheme, still include:
drawing a market fluctuation curve of the current crop when maturing according to the historical time length data;
selecting one or more peak intervals from the duration fluctuation curve for analysis, and adjusting the planting management scheme to ensure that the crop maturation time meets the corresponding date of the one or more peak intervals respectively to obtain one or more fourth planting management schemes;
predicting the yield according to the fourth planting management scheme to obtain fourth predicted planting yields of the crops;
performing risk assessment according to the fourth planting management scheme to obtain risk assessment data;
transmitting the fourth predicted planting yields and the risk assessment data to a preset terminal;
And adjusting the planting management scheme according to the second feedback information.
In this scheme, still include:
the planting cost data b comprises equipment use maintenance cost, labor cost and agricultural cost.
A third aspect of the present invention provides a computer readable storage medium having embodied therein a crop planting yield measuring method program which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of a crop planting yield measuring method as described in any one of the preceding claims.
The invention discloses a crop planting yield measuring and calculating method and system, wherein the method comprises the following steps: analyzing based on the first planting management scheme to obtain predicted yield data of crops; predicting planting cost data of crops according to the first planting management scheme by combining historical meteorological data; calculating according to the predicted yield data, the planting cost data and the market predicted price of the crop maturation time to obtain first predicted planting yields of crops; dynamically updating the first predicted planting yield of the crop according to the real-time growth data of the crop; when the first predicted planting yield is smaller than a first preset threshold value, adjusting the first predicted planting scheme based on the second planting management scheme; and recalculating the first predicted planting yield of the crop according to the predicted yield data and the planting cost data obtained by the adjusted first planting management scheme. The invention adjusts the crop planting management scheme by predicting the planting income on the basis of considering the yield and the planting cost, thereby improving the crop planting income.
Drawings
FIG. 1 shows a flow chart of a crop planting yield measurement method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a first predictive planting benefit dynamic update method of the present invention;
FIG. 3 illustrates a flow chart of a first predicted planting benefit replacement method of the present invention;
FIG. 4 illustrates a block diagram of a crop planting yield measurement system of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order that the above-recited objects, features and advantages of the present invention will be more clearly understood, a more particular description of the invention will be rendered by reference to the appended drawings and appended detailed description. It should be noted that, in the case of no conflict, the embodiments of the present application and the features in the embodiments may be combined with each other.
In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention, however, the present invention may be practiced in other ways than those described herein, and therefore the scope of the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.
FIG. 1 shows a flow chart of a crop planting yield measurement method of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the invention discloses a crop planting yield measuring and calculating method, which comprises the following steps:
S102, analyzing based on the first planting management scheme to obtain predicted yield data a of crops 1 ；
S104, predicting the planting cost data b of the crops according to the first planting management scheme and the historical meteorological data 1 ；
S106, according to the predicted yield data a 1 The planting cost data b 1 And a market forecast price c for the maturity time of said crop 1 Calculating to obtain first predicted planting yields of the crops;
s108, dynamically updating the first predicted planting yield of the crops according to the real-time growth data of the crops;
s110, when the first predicted planting yield is smaller than a first preset threshold value, adjusting the first predicted planting scheme based on a second planting management scheme;
s112, according to the predicted yield data a obtained by the adjusted first planting management scheme 2 And planting cost data b 2 A first predicted planting yield for the crop is recalculated.
According to the embodiment of the invention, the first planting management scheme and the second planting management scheme are planting management schemes formulated by experts in related fields according to the growth habit of crops, wherein the first planting management scheme is the planting management scheme which is most suitable for the current area. The predicted yield data of the crops are obtained by planting and managing the crops through a planting and managing scheme; the planting cost data is cost data of growing environment and water fertilizer nutrition required by controlling the current crop to be in a growth state corresponding to a predicted growth curve of a predicted planting scheme for maintaining planting management parameters in the planting management scheme, and comprises agricultural materials, labor and equipment use and maintenance cost, and the planting cost data is simultaneously influenced by meteorological data of the current region.
Before crops are planted, selecting a first planting management scheme which is most suitable for planting in the current area from expert planting management schemes recorded in a system according to historical meteorological data of a planting area, marking other expert planting management schemes as a second planting management scheme, and carrying out simulation prediction on predicted yield data a of the crops through the first planting management scheme 1 Determining planting cost data b for maintaining crop growth environment 1 And predicting the crop maturity time, and determining the market predictive price c of the crop maturity time through a historical crop market predictive price curve 1 Finally, calculating the first predicted planting yield of the crop, wherein the first predicted planting yield=predicted yield data×market predicted price-planting cost data. Meanwhile, in the crop planting management process, the first predicted planting income is dynamically updated according to the actual growth data of crops, and the actual growth data of the crops are collected according to the preset frequency of the system, for example, the actual growth data of the crops are collected once every day at 4 pm. When the first predicted planting income is smaller than a first preset threshold value, the predicted planting income of the current crop is lower than the expected value of the user, and the actual growth data of the current crop can be combined with the second planting The management scheme adjusts or replaces the first planting management scheme, and crop planting income is improved through improving crop yield or reducing planting cost. The initial value of the first preset threshold is an average value of planting income of the crop per mu in nearly three years, and a person skilled in the art can adjust the first preset threshold according to actual use requirements.
FIG. 2 shows a flow chart of a first predictive planting benefit dynamic update method of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 2, according to an embodiment of the present invention, the dynamically updating the first predicted planting yield of the crop according to the real-time growth data of the crop includes:
s202, acquiring actual growth data of the crops;
s204, calculating the growth ratio of the actual growth data of the crops and the predicted growth data of the first planting management scheme;
s206, judging whether the growth ratio is in a second preset threshold interval;
s208, if yes, no processing is performed;
s210, if not, recalculating the predicted yield data a of the crop according to the actual growth data of the crop 3 And based on the predicted yield data a 3 A first predicted planting yield for the crop is recalculated.
The actual growth data of the crops are obtained by analyzing and detecting image data or manually measuring and uploading the data, including plant height, leaf area, leaf color, flowering condition and the like of the crops. The first planting management scheme is the planting management scheme with highest crop productivity, and a predicted growth curve of crops is obtained by carrying out a planting model on the first planting management scheme. The ratio of the actual growth data and the predicted growth data of the predicted growth curve of the crop under the same growth time is calculated by comparing the actual growth data and the predicted growth data of the predicted growth curve of the crop, so that whether the crop grows according to the preset growth curve or not and whether abnormal growth (such as over-fast growth or slow growth and the like) exists is judged. Analyzing according to the growth ratio of the actual growth data and the predicted growth data of the current crop, if the growth ratio isIf the value is in the second preset threshold interval, the current crop grows according to a preset growth curve; if the growth ratio is not within the second preset threshold interval, indicating that the current crop is abnormal in growth, the first planting management scheme may not be suitable for use in the current region, resulting in that the final crop yield data may be identical to the predicted crop yield data a 1 The deviation exists, so that the planting income of crops cannot reach the first predicted planting income. Simulation is performed based on current actual growth data of the crop, and predicted yield data a of the crop is predicted 3 Calculating predicted planting yields under the actual growth state, and updating the first predicted planting yields
Meanwhile, in order to avoid abnormal growth of crops caused by data fluctuation, whether the crops grow abnormally or not can be judged through the growth ratio of adjacent actual growth data and predicted growth data, and other influences such as data fluctuation are eliminated.
Wherein, the initial value of the second preset threshold interval is 95-105%, and the person skilled in the art can adjust the second preset threshold interval according to actual needs.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, the adjusting the first predicted planting scheme based on the second planting management scheme includes:
analyzing according to the actual growth data of the crops in the current growth stage, and determining the cause of the abnormality;
and analyzing the second planting management scheme based on the abnormality reasons, and adjusting or replacing the sub-management scheme of the first planting management scheme by using the sub-management method of the second planting management scheme for the current growth stage of the crops.
It should be noted that, in the case where there is an abnormality in the actual growth data of the crop, the resulting planting yield is lower than the first predicted planting yield. By analyzing the actual growth data of the current crop in the current growth stage, the reasons for abnormality, such as premature senility, vigorous expansion and the like, affecting the crop yield are determined. Under the condition, the sub-management scheme of the first planting management scheme is adjusted through the sub-management scheme of the second management scheme in the current crop growth stage, for example, the planting management parameters of the first planting management scheme are adjusted according to the planting management parameters of the second planting management scheme in the crop tillering stage due to insufficient water and fertilizer use in the crop tillering stage, the water and fertilizer use parameters are adjusted, and meanwhile, the temperature and the illumination intensity in the shed can be adjusted through the planting management equipment, so that the tillering quantity is improved, and the crop yield is ensured. Wherein, the sub-management scheme refers to the management scheme at the current growth stage of crops.
FIG. 3 shows a flow chart of a first predicted planting benefit replacement method of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 3, according to an embodiment of the present invention, further includes:
s302, after each growth stage is finished, calculating second planting cost data b of the second planting management scheme according to the rest growth stages 3 Second predicted yield data a 4 And crop maturation time;
s304, determining a second market forecast price c according to the crop maturity time 2 ；
S306, predicting price c according to the second market 2 Second predicted yield data a 4 And second planting cost data b 3 Calculating a second predicted planting yield;
s308, calculating a first benefit ratio of the second predicted planting benefit and the first predicted planting benefit;
s310, if the first income ratio is larger than a second preset threshold value, generating a planting management scheme adjustment application according to the second planting management scheme, and sending the planting management scheme adjustment application to a preset terminal;
s312, replacing the first planting management scheme according to the first feedback information.
After each growth stage is finished, the system performs simulation calculation according to the growth state of the current crop and the real-time price of the agricultural materials used in each planting management scheme at the current time to determine second planting cost data b for replacing the second planting management scheme 3 And second predicted yield data a 4 And predicting the crop maturation time. According to crop maturityTime-determining a second market forecast price c 2 Second market forecast price c 2 May be the highest market forecast price for the time and period of crop maturation (e.g., seven days). If a plurality of second planting management schemes exist, calculating each second planting management scheme, determining to use second predicted planting benefits under each second planting management scheme, calculating a first benefit ratio of the second predicted planting benefits with the highest benefits to the first predicted planting benefits, and generating a planting management scheme adjustment application according to the second planting management scheme corresponding to the second predicted planting benefits with the highest benefits under the condition that the first benefit ratio is larger than a second preset threshold. The user checks the adjustment application of the planting management scheme through the preset terminal, selects whether to replace the planting management scheme, generates first feedback information according to the selection result of the user, uploads the first feedback information to the server, and the server adjusts the first planting management scheme according to the first feedback information. The preset terminal can be a display terminal and a user mobile phone terminal. The initial value of the second preset threshold is 110%, and the person skilled in the art can adjust the second preset threshold according to actual use requirements.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, further comprising:
according to the growth score and the seed planting cost data b of each growth stage 4 Analyzing, based on the first planting management scheme and the second planting management scheme, selecting a corresponding sub-planting management scheme for each growth stage;
splicing the sub-planting management schemes corresponding to each growth stage to obtain a third planting management scheme;
calculating according to the third planting management scheme to obtain third predicted planting yields of the crops;
calculating a second benefit ratio of the third predicted planting benefit and the first predicted planting benefit;
when the second benefit ratio is greater than a third preset threshold, performing planting management on the crops through the third planting management scheme;
and otherwise, performing planting management on the crops through the first planting management scheme.
It should be noted that, when the first predicted planting yield is lower than the expected value of the user, the sub-planting management schemes of each growth stage may be compared among the plurality of planting management schemes, the crop planting management score may be calculated by the crop growth score and the sub-planting cost data of each sub-planting management scheme, the sub-planting management scheme with the highest planting management score may be selected as the sub-planting management scheme of each growth stage, and the third planting management scheme may be obtained by stitching.
The growth score of the crop in each growth stage is obtained by calculating the similarity of the simulated growth curve and the predicted growth curve, the similarity of the two curves is calculated by a similarity calculation method such as a mean square error algorithm, a pearson correlation coefficient algorithm and the like, and the growth score of the crop in the current growth stage is calculated according to the similarity of the two curves. The value range of the growth score of the crop in each growth stage is 0-100, and the higher the similarity of the two curves is, the larger the value of the growth score is. Planting management score by growth score and sub-planting cost data b 4 Multiplying the result by the corresponding influence weights respectively, and accumulating the calculation results. And calculating according to the predicted yield data, the planting cost data and the market predicted price of the crop maturation time of the third planting management scheme to obtain third predicted planting yields. The initial value of the third preset threshold is 110%, and a person skilled in the art can adjust the third preset threshold according to actual use requirements.
In addition, as the fertilizer used in the previous growth stage and the fertilizer used in the later growth stage possibly have conflict conditions, the sub-planting management schemes of the plurality of planting management schemes cannot play a role in improving the crop productivity and reducing the planting cost after being spliced, but the crop growth is abnormal, so that when the sub-planting management schemes are spliced, simulation verification is performed through a system, the rationality of splicing the sub-planting management schemes is verified, and under the condition that the splicing requirement is not met, the next sub-planting management scheme is selected for splicing verification in a mode of descending order of planting management scores until the splicing requirement is met, and finally the third planting management scheme is obtained.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, further comprising:
the predicted yield data a of the crops are calculated by a preset crop growth model.
It should be noted that the preset crop growth model is based on the physiological and ecological principles of crops, adopts a systematic dynamic method to mathematically model the processes of photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, dry matter distribution and the like of crops, and can dynamically simulate various physiological parameters and structural parameters in the growth and development process of crops in a specific time step to predict the crop yield. The preset crop growth model can also simulate the influence of various environmental limiting factors such as soil, weather, moisture, nitrogen and the like and field management on the growth and development of crops, and provides reference information for researching the change rule of various state variables of crops along with time, diagnosing the growth condition of the crops, predicting the yield and the like. The crop growth model is often driven by meteorological data, and can simulate the substance and energy conversion process in the crop growth process and simulate various growth and development information in the crop growth process.
The preset crop growth model predicts crop yield by the yield calculation formula of CASA-WOFOST, predicted yield data = primary yield accumulation x harvest index x net photosynthesis + offset coefficient.
Because of certain difference of yield and harvest index among different ground cities, offset coefficients are added for analysis, and the accuracy of crop yield prediction by the planting environment is eliminated.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, further comprising:
drawing a market fluctuation curve of the current crop when maturing according to the historical time length data;
selecting one or more peak intervals from the duration fluctuation curve for analysis, and adjusting the planting management scheme to ensure that the crop maturation time meets the corresponding date of the one or more peak intervals respectively to obtain one or more fourth planting management schemes;
predicting the yield according to the fourth planting management scheme to obtain fourth predicted planting yields of the crops;
performing risk assessment according to the fourth planting management scheme to obtain risk assessment data;
transmitting the fourth predicted planting yields and the risk assessment data to a preset terminal;
and adjusting the planting management scheme according to the second feedback information.
It should be noted that, the fourth planting management scheme is obtained by adjusting the first planting management scheme or the second planting management scheme, and the market price of the crops is continuously changed, so that the value of the planting income of the crops is not likely to be continuously changed and is changed along with the continuous change of the market, so that when evaluating the planting income of the crops, one or more peak intervals corresponding to date can be determined according to analysis of a market fluctuation curve, a proper planting management scheme is selected and selectively adjusted, the fourth planting management scheme is obtained, for example, the water and fertilizer use data, environmental parameters such as temperature and humidity in a greenhouse and the like are adjusted, the crop is controlled to be mature at the corresponding date of the peak intervals, and the crop yield is ensured to the greatest extent, so that the planting income of the crops is improved.
The risk assessment data includes controlling the impact on crop yield, the impact on planting costs, and the impact on market price fluctuations during planting management by the fourth planting management method during the crop maturation time. The risk assessment data is obtained by carrying out weighted calculation on a plurality of risk assessment influence factors, wherein the risk assessment influence factors comprise planting management scheme parameter differences (such as temperature differences, humidity differences and water fertilizer use differences), maturity time differences, market price differences and the like. The predicted planting yields for the crops are displayed in an average yield within a preset area (such as per mu) for facilitating observation, and meanwhile, the risk assessment data are converted into numerical values between 0 and 100 in proportion. Wherein between 0 and 60 represents a low risk, 61 to 80 represents a medium risk, and 81 to 100 represents a high risk. And the user checks the predicted planting income and risk assessment data through a preset terminal (a display terminal or a mobile phone terminal of the user) to determine whether to adjust the planting management scheme.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, further comprising:
the planting cost data b comprises agricultural cost, equipment use maintenance cost and labor cost.
The agricultural cost includes the cost of materials used in the growing process of crops such as seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, farm tools, mulching films, agricultural machinery, processing machinery, herbicides and the like; the equipment use maintenance cost refers to the cost generated in the process of using and maintaining the planting management equipment in the greenhouse, and comprises water cost, electricity cost and the like; labor cost refers to labor use cost for measuring crop phenotype data, crop branch and leaf pruning, crop fruit picking and the like, which cannot be achieved through machinery or equipment.
FIG. 4 illustrates a block diagram of a crop planting yield measurement system of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 4, a second aspect of the present invention provides a crop planting yield measurement system comprising:
the crop yield prediction module is used for analyzing based on the first planting management scheme to obtain predicted yield data a of crops 1 ；
A planting cost prediction module for predicting planting cost data b of the crop according to the first planting management scheme in combination with historical meteorological data 1 ；
A planting income prediction module for predicting yield data a according to the prediction 1 The planting cost data b 1 And a market forecast price c for the maturity time of said crop 1 Calculating to obtain first predicted planting yields of the crops;
the planting income updating module is used for dynamically updating the first predicted planting income of the crops according to the real-time growth data of the crops;
the planting scheme adjusting module is used for adjusting the first predicted planting scheme based on a second planting management scheme when the first predicted planting income is smaller than a first preset threshold value; predicted yield data a based on adjusted first planting management scheme 2 And planting cost data b 2 A first predicted planting yield for the crop is recalculated.
According to the embodiment of the invention, the first planting management scheme and the second planting management scheme are planting management schemes formulated by experts in related fields according to the growth habit of crops, wherein the first planting management scheme is the planting management scheme which is most suitable for the current area. The predicted yield data of the crops are obtained by planting and managing the crops through a planting and managing scheme; the planting cost data is cost data of growing environment and water fertilizer nutrition required by controlling the current crop to be in a growth state corresponding to a predicted growth curve of a predicted planting scheme for maintaining planting management parameters in the planting management scheme, and comprises agricultural materials, labor and equipment use and maintenance cost, and the planting cost data is simultaneously influenced by meteorological data of the current region.
Before crops are planted, selecting a first planting management scheme which is most suitable for planting in the current area from expert planting management schemes recorded in a system according to historical meteorological data of a planting area, marking other expert planting management schemes as a second planting management scheme, and carrying out simulation prediction on predicted yield data a of the crops through the first planting management scheme 1 Determining planting cost data b for maintaining crop growth environment 1 And predicting the crop maturity time, and determining the market predictive price c of the crop maturity time through a historical crop market predictive price curve 1 Finally, calculating the first predicted planting yield of the crop, wherein the first predicted planting yield=predicted yield data×market predicted price-planting cost data. Meanwhile, in the crop planting management process, the first predicted planting income is dynamically updated according to the actual growth data of crops, and the actual growth data of the crops are collected according to the preset frequency of the system, for example, the actual growth data of the crops are collected once every day at 4 pm. When the first predicted planting income is smaller than a first preset threshold value, the predicted planting income of the current crop is lower than an expected value of a user, the actual growth data of the current crop can be combined with the second planting management scheme to adjust or replace the first planting management scheme, and the planting income of the crop is improved by improving the crop yield or reducing the planting cost. Wherein the initial value of the first preset threshold value is the average value of the planting income of the crop per mu in nearly three yearsThe first preset threshold value can be adjusted according to actual use requirements by a person skilled in the art.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, the dynamically updating the first predicted planting yield of the crop according to the real-time growth data of the crop includes:
Acquiring actual growth data of the crop;
calculating a growth ratio of actual growth data of the crop to predicted growth data of a first planting management scheme;
judging whether the growth ratio is in a second preset threshold interval or not;
if yes, no treatment is carried out;
if not, recalculating the predicted yield data a of the crop according to the actual growth data of the crop 3 And based on the predicted yield data a 3 A first predicted planting yield for the crop is recalculated.
The actual growth data of the crops are obtained by analyzing and detecting image data or manually measuring and uploading the data, including plant height, leaf area, leaf color, flowering condition and the like of the crops. The first planting management scheme is the planting management scheme with highest crop productivity, and a predicted growth curve of crops is obtained by carrying out a planting model on the first planting management scheme. The ratio of the actual growth data and the predicted growth data of the predicted growth curve of the crop under the same growth time is calculated by comparing the actual growth data and the predicted growth data of the predicted growth curve of the crop, so that whether the crop grows according to the preset growth curve or not and whether abnormal growth (such as over-fast growth or slow growth and the like) exists is judged. Analyzing according to the growth ratio of the actual growth data and the predicted growth data of the current crop, and if the growth ratio is in a second preset threshold interval, indicating that the current crop grows according to a preset growth curve; if the growth ratio is not within the second preset threshold interval, indicating that the current crop is abnormal in growth, the first planting management scheme may not be suitable for use in the current region, resulting in that the final crop yield data may be identical to the predicted crop yield data a 1 The deviation exists, so that the planting income of crops cannot reach the first predicted planting income. Based on the time of cropsSimulation of the previous actual growth data, prediction of the predicted yield data a of the crop 3 Calculating predicted planting yields under the actual growth state, and updating the first predicted planting yields
Meanwhile, in order to avoid abnormal growth of crops caused by data fluctuation, whether the crops grow abnormally or not can be judged through the growth ratio of adjacent actual growth data and predicted growth data, and other influences such as data fluctuation are eliminated.
Wherein, the initial value of the second preset threshold interval is 95-105%, and the person skilled in the art can adjust the second preset threshold interval according to actual needs.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, the adjusting the first predicted planting scheme based on the second planting management scheme includes:
analyzing according to the actual growth data of the crops in the current growth stage, and determining the cause of the abnormality;
and analyzing the second planting management scheme based on the abnormality reasons, and adjusting or replacing the sub-management scheme of the first planting management scheme by using the sub-management method of the second planting management scheme for the current growth stage of the crops.
It should be noted that, in the case where there is an abnormality in the actual growth data of the crop, the resulting planting yield is lower than the first predicted planting yield. By analyzing the actual growth data of the current crop in the current growth stage, the reasons for abnormality, such as premature senility, vigorous expansion and the like, affecting the crop yield are determined. Under the condition, the sub-management scheme of the first planting management scheme is adjusted through the sub-management scheme of the second management scheme in the current crop growth stage, for example, the planting management parameters of the first planting management scheme are adjusted according to the planting management parameters of the second planting management scheme in the crop tillering stage due to insufficient water and fertilizer use in the crop tillering stage, the water and fertilizer use parameters are adjusted, and meanwhile, the temperature and the illumination intensity in the shed can be adjusted through the planting management equipment, so that the tillering quantity is improved, and the crop yield is ensured. Wherein, the sub-management scheme refers to the management scheme at the current growth stage of crops.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, further comprising:
after each growth stage is finished, respectively calculating second planting cost data b of the second planting management scheme according to the rest growth stages 3 Second predicted yield data a 4 And crop maturation time;
determining a second market forecast price c based on the time of maturity of the crop 2 ；
Predicting price c based on the second market 2 Second predicted yield data a 4 And second planting cost data b 3 Calculating a second predicted planting yield;
calculating a first benefit ratio of the second predicted planting benefit and the first predicted planting benefit;
if the first income ratio is larger than a second preset threshold value, generating a planting management scheme adjustment application according to the second planting management scheme, and sending the planting management scheme adjustment application to a preset terminal;
and replacing the first planting management scheme according to the first feedback information.
After each growth stage is finished, the system performs simulation calculation according to the growth state of the current crop and the real-time price of the agricultural materials used in each planting management scheme at the current time to determine second planting cost data b for replacing the second planting management scheme 3 And second predicted yield data a 4 And predicting the crop maturation time. Determining a second market forecast price c based on crop maturity time 2 Second market forecast price c 2 May be the highest market forecast price for the time and period of crop maturation (e.g., seven days). If a plurality of second planting management schemes exist, calculating each second planting management scheme, determining to use second predicted planting benefits under each second planting management scheme, calculating a first benefit ratio of the second predicted planting benefits with the highest benefits to the first predicted planting benefits, and under the condition that the first benefit ratio is larger than a second preset threshold, according to a second planting pipe corresponding to the second predicted planting benefits with the highest benefits The management scheme generates a planting management scheme adjustment application. The user checks the adjustment application of the planting management scheme through the preset terminal, selects whether to replace the planting management scheme, generates first feedback information according to the selection result of the user, uploads the first feedback information to the server, and the server adjusts the first planting management scheme according to the first feedback information. The preset terminal can be a display terminal and a user mobile phone terminal. The initial value of the second preset threshold is 110%, and the person skilled in the art can adjust the second preset threshold according to actual use requirements.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, further comprising:
according to the growth score and the seed planting cost data b of each growth stage 4 Analyzing, based on the first planting management scheme and the second planting management scheme, selecting a corresponding sub-planting management scheme for each growth stage;
splicing the sub-planting management schemes corresponding to each growth stage to obtain a third planting management scheme;
calculating according to the third planting management scheme to obtain third predicted planting yields of the crops;
calculating a second benefit ratio of the third predicted planting benefit and the first predicted planting benefit;
When the second benefit ratio is greater than a third preset threshold, performing planting management on the crops through the third planting management scheme;
and otherwise, performing planting management on the crops through the first planting management scheme.
It should be noted that, when the first predicted planting yield is lower than the expected value of the user, the sub-planting management schemes of each growth stage may be compared among the plurality of planting management schemes, the crop planting management score may be calculated by the crop growth score and the sub-planting cost data of each sub-planting management scheme, the sub-planting management scheme with the highest planting management score may be selected as the sub-planting management scheme of each growth stage, and the third planting management scheme may be obtained by stitching.
Growth score of crops in each growth stage is communicatedAnd calculating the similarity of the simulated growth curve and the predicted growth curve, calculating the similarity of the two curves by using a mean square error algorithm, a pearson correlation coefficient algorithm and other similarity calculation methods, and calculating the growth score of the crop in the current growth stage according to the similarity of the two curves. The value range of the growth score of the crop in each growth stage is 0-100, and the higher the similarity of the two curves is, the larger the value of the growth score is. Planting management score by growth score and sub-planting cost data b 4 Multiplying the result by the corresponding influence weights respectively, and accumulating the calculation results. And calculating according to the predicted yield data, the planting cost data and the market predicted price of the crop maturation time of the third planting management scheme to obtain third predicted planting yields. The initial value of the third preset threshold is 110%, and a person skilled in the art can adjust the third preset threshold according to actual use requirements.
In addition, as the fertilizer used in the previous growth stage and the fertilizer used in the later growth stage possibly have conflict conditions, the sub-planting management schemes of the plurality of planting management schemes cannot play a role in improving the crop productivity and reducing the planting cost after being spliced, but the crop growth is abnormal, so that when the sub-planting management schemes are spliced, simulation verification is performed through a system, the rationality of splicing the sub-planting management schemes is verified, and under the condition that the splicing requirement is not met, the next sub-planting management scheme is selected for splicing verification in a mode of descending order of planting management scores until the splicing requirement is met, and finally the third planting management scheme is obtained.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, further comprising:
the predicted yield data a of the crops are calculated by a preset crop growth model.
It should be noted that the preset crop growth model is based on the physiological and ecological principles of crops, adopts a systematic dynamic method to mathematically model the processes of photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, dry matter distribution and the like of crops, and can dynamically simulate various physiological parameters and structural parameters in the growth and development process of crops in a specific time step to predict the crop yield. The preset crop growth model can also simulate the influence of various environmental limiting factors such as soil, weather, moisture, nitrogen and the like and field management on the growth and development of crops, and provides reference information for researching the change rule of various state variables of crops along with time, diagnosing the growth condition of the crops, predicting the yield and the like. The crop growth model is often driven by meteorological data, and can simulate the substance and energy conversion process in the crop growth process and simulate various growth and development information in the crop growth process.
The preset crop growth model predicts crop yield by the yield calculation formula of CASA-WOFOST, predicted yield data = primary yield accumulation x harvest index x net photosynthesis + offset coefficient.
Because of certain difference of yield and harvest index among different ground cities, offset coefficients are added for analysis, and the accuracy of crop yield prediction by the planting environment is eliminated.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, further comprising:
drawing a market fluctuation curve of the current crop when maturing according to the historical time length data;
selecting one or more peak intervals from the duration fluctuation curve for analysis, and adjusting the planting management scheme to ensure that the crop maturation time meets the corresponding date of the one or more peak intervals respectively to obtain one or more fourth planting management schemes;
predicting the yield according to the fourth planting management scheme to obtain fourth predicted planting yields of the crops;
performing risk assessment according to the fourth planting management scheme to obtain risk assessment data;
transmitting the fourth predicted planting yields and the risk assessment data to a preset terminal;
and adjusting the planting management scheme according to the second feedback information.
It should be noted that, the fourth planting management scheme is obtained by adjusting the first planting management scheme or the second planting management scheme, and the market price of the crops is continuously changed, so that the value of the planting income of the crops is not likely to be continuously changed and is changed along with the continuous change of the market, so that when evaluating the planting income of the crops, one or more peak intervals corresponding to date can be determined according to analysis of a market fluctuation curve, a proper planting management scheme is selected and selectively adjusted, the fourth planting management scheme is obtained, for example, the water and fertilizer use data, environmental parameters such as temperature and humidity in a greenhouse and the like are adjusted, the crop is controlled to be mature at the corresponding date of the peak intervals, and the crop yield is ensured to the greatest extent, so that the planting income of the crops is improved.
The risk assessment data includes controlling the impact on crop yield, the impact on planting costs, and the impact on market price fluctuations during planting management by the fourth planting management method during the crop maturation time. The risk assessment data is obtained by carrying out weighted calculation on a plurality of risk assessment influence factors, wherein the risk assessment influence factors comprise planting management scheme parameter differences (such as temperature differences, humidity differences and water fertilizer use differences), maturity time differences, market price differences and the like. The predicted planting yields for the crops are displayed in an average yield within a preset area (such as per mu) for facilitating observation, and meanwhile, the risk assessment data are converted into numerical values between 0 and 100 in proportion. Wherein between 0 and 60 represents a low risk, 61 to 80 represents a medium risk, and 81 to 100 represents a high risk. And the user checks the predicted planting income and risk assessment data through a preset terminal (a display terminal or a mobile phone terminal of the user) to determine whether to adjust the planting management scheme.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, further comprising:
the planting cost data b comprises agricultural cost, equipment use maintenance cost and labor cost.
The agricultural cost includes the cost of materials used in the growing process of crops such as seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, farm tools, mulching films, agricultural machinery, processing machinery, herbicides and the like; the equipment use maintenance cost refers to the cost generated in the process of using and maintaining the planting management equipment in the greenhouse, and comprises water cost, electricity cost and the like; labor cost refers to labor use cost for measuring crop phenotype data, crop branch and leaf pruning, crop fruit picking and the like, which cannot be achieved through machinery or equipment.
A third aspect of the present invention provides a computer readable storage medium having embodied therein a crop planting yield measuring method program which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of a crop planting yield measuring method as described in any one of the preceding claims.
The invention discloses a crop planting yield measuring and calculating method and system, wherein the method comprises the following steps: analyzing based on the first planting management scheme to obtain predicted yield data of crops; predicting planting cost data of crops according to the first planting management scheme by combining historical meteorological data; calculating according to the predicted yield data, the planting cost data and the market predicted price of the crop maturation time to obtain first predicted planting yields of crops; dynamically updating the first predicted planting yield of the crop according to the real-time growth data of the crop; when the first predicted planting yield is smaller than a first preset threshold value, adjusting the first predicted planting scheme based on the second planting management scheme; and recalculating the first predicted planting yield of the crop according to the predicted yield data and the planting cost data obtained by the adjusted first planting management scheme. The invention adjusts the crop planting management scheme by predicting the planting income on the basis of considering the yield and the planting cost, thereby improving the crop planting income.
In the several embodiments provided in this application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus and method may be implemented in other ways. The above described device embodiments are only illustrative, e.g. the division of the units is only one logical function division, and there may be other divisions in practice, such as: multiple units or components may be combined or may be integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not performed. In addition, the various components shown or discussed may be coupled or directly coupled or communicatively coupled to each other via some interface, whether indirectly coupled or communicatively coupled to devices or units, whether electrically, mechanically, or otherwise.
The units described above as separate components may or may not be physically separate, and components shown as units may or may not be physical units; can be located in one place or distributed to a plurality of network units; some or all of the units may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.
In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention may be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit may be separately used as one unit, or two or more units may be integrated in one unit; the integrated units may be implemented in hardware or in hardware plus software functional units.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that: all or part of the steps for implementing the above method embodiments may be implemented by hardware related to program instructions, and the foregoing program may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, where the program, when executed, performs steps including the above method embodiments; and the aforementioned storage medium includes: a mobile storage device, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a random access Memory (RAM, random Access Memory), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, or the like, which can store program codes.
Alternatively, the above-described integrated units of the present invention may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium if implemented in the form of software functional modules and sold or used as separate products. Based on such understanding, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention may be embodied in essence or a part contributing to the prior art in the form of a software product stored in a storage medium, including several instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the methods described in the embodiments of the present invention. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a removable storage device, ROM, RAM, magnetic or optical disk, or other medium capable of storing program code.
Claims (10)
1. A method for measuring crop planting yield, comprising:
analyzing based on the first planting management scheme to obtain predicted yield data a of crops 1 ；
Predicting planting cost data b for the crop in accordance with the first planting management scheme in combination with historical meteorological data 1 ；
Based on the predicted yield data a 1 The planting cost data b 1 And a market forecast price c for the maturity time of said crop 1 Calculating to obtain first predicted planting yields of the crops;
dynamically updating the first predicted planting yield of the crop according to the real-time growth data of the crop;
when the first predicted planting yield is smaller than a first preset threshold value, adjusting the first predicted planting scheme based on a second planting management scheme;
predicted yield data a based on adjusted first planting management scheme 2 And planting cost data b 2 A first predicted planting yield for the crop is recalculated.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein dynamically updating the first predicted planting yield of the crop based on the real-time growth data of the crop comprises:
acquiring actual growth data of the crop;
Calculating a growth ratio of actual growth data of the crop to predicted growth data of a first planting management scheme;
judging whether the growth ratio is in a second preset threshold interval or not;
if yes, no treatment is carried out;
if not, recalculating the predicted yield data a of the crop according to the actual growth data of the crop 3 And based on the predicted yield data a 3 A first predicted planting yield for the crop is recalculated.
3. The crop planting yield measurement method according to claim 1, wherein the adjusting the first predicted planting scheme based on the second planting management scheme comprises:
analyzing according to the actual growth data of the crops in the current growth stage, and determining the cause of the abnormality;
and analyzing the second planting management scheme based on the abnormality reasons, and adjusting or replacing the sub-management scheme of the first planting management scheme by using the sub-management method of the second planting management scheme for the current growth stage of the crops.
4. The crop planting yield measurement method according to claim 1, further comprising:
after each growth stage is finished, respectively calculating second planting cost data b of the second planting management scheme according to the rest growth stages 3 Second predicted yield data a 4 And crop maturation time;
determining a second market forecast price c based on the time of maturity of the crop 2 ；
Predicting price c based on the second market 2 Second predicted yield data a 4 And second planting cost data b 3 Calculating a second predicted planting yield;
calculating a first benefit ratio of the second predicted planting benefit and the first predicted planting benefit;
if the first income ratio is larger than a second preset threshold value, generating a planting management scheme adjustment application according to the second planting management scheme, and sending the planting management scheme adjustment application to a preset terminal;
and replacing the first planting management scheme according to the first feedback information.
5. The crop planting yield measurement method according to claim 1, further comprising:
according to each growth stageGrowth score and seed cost data b for (2) 4 Analyzing, based on the first planting management scheme and the second planting management scheme, selecting a corresponding sub-planting management scheme for each growth stage;
splicing the sub-planting management schemes corresponding to each growth stage to obtain a third planting management scheme;
calculating according to the third planting management scheme to obtain third predicted planting yields of the crops;
Calculating a second benefit ratio of the third predicted planting benefit and the first predicted planting benefit;
when the second benefit ratio is greater than a third preset threshold, performing planting management on the crops through the third planting management scheme;
and otherwise, performing planting management on the crops through the first planting management scheme.
6. The crop planting yield measurement method according to claim 1, further comprising:
the predicted yield data a of the crops are calculated by a preset crop growth model.
7. Drawing a market fluctuation curve of the current crop when maturing according to the historical time length data;
selecting one or more peak intervals from the duration fluctuation curve for analysis, and adjusting the planting management scheme to ensure that the crop maturation time meets the corresponding date of the one or more peak intervals respectively to obtain one or more fourth planting management schemes;
predicting the yield according to the fourth planting management scheme to obtain fourth predicted planting yields of the crops;
performing risk assessment according to the fourth planting management scheme to obtain risk assessment data;
transmitting the fourth predicted planting yields and the risk assessment data to a preset terminal;
And adjusting the planting management scheme according to the second feedback information.
8. The crop planting yield measurement method according to claim 1, further comprising:
the planting cost data b comprises equipment use maintenance cost, labor cost and agricultural cost.
9. A crop planting yield measurement system, comprising:
the crop yield prediction module is used for analyzing based on the first planting management scheme to obtain predicted yield data a of crops 1 ；
A planting cost prediction module for predicting planting cost data b of the crop according to the first planting management scheme in combination with historical meteorological data 1 ；
A planting income prediction module for predicting yield data a according to the prediction 1 The planting cost data b 1 And a market forecast price c for the maturity time of said crop 1 Calculating to obtain first predicted planting yields of the crops;
the planting income updating module is used for dynamically updating the first predicted planting income of the crops according to the real-time growth data of the crops;
the planting scheme adjusting module is used for adjusting the first predicted planting scheme based on a second planting management scheme when the first predicted planting income is smaller than a first preset threshold value; predicted yield data a based on adjusted first planting management scheme 2 And planting cost data b 2 A first predicted planting yield for the crop is recalculated.
10. The crop planting yield measurement system of claim 9, further comprising:
after each growth stage is finished, respectively calculating second planting cost data b of the second planting management scheme according to the rest growth stages 3 Second predicted yield data a 4 And crop maturation time;
determining a second market forecast price c based on the time of maturity of the crop 2 ；
Predicting price c based on the second market 2 Second predicted yield data a 4 And second planting cost data b 3 Calculating a second predicted planting yield;
calculating a first benefit ratio of the second predicted planting benefit and the first predicted planting benefit;
if the first income ratio is larger than a second preset threshold value, generating a planting management scheme adjustment application according to the second planting management scheme, and sending the planting management scheme adjustment application to a preset terminal;
and replacing the first planting management scheme according to the first feedback information.
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