CN117744502A - Rail fragment evolution method based on soldier chess - Google Patents
Rail fragment evolution method based on soldier chess Download PDFInfo
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- CN117744502A CN117744502A CN202410171951.9A CN202410171951A CN117744502A CN 117744502 A CN117744502 A CN 117744502A CN 202410171951 A CN202410171951 A CN 202410171951A CN 117744502 A CN117744502 A CN 117744502A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a track fragment evolution method based on a chess, which relates to the technical field of space safety protection and comprises the following steps: deducing whether a spacecraft generates a fragment event trigger based on a chess system; if the spacecraft generates the fragment event trigger, confirming that fragments are generated and acquiring the position information of the generated fragments; inputting the position information of the fragments into a space track forecast model to obtain track forecast information of the fragments; and simulating a fragment detention position and a falling path according to the track forecast information of the fragments. The method can effectively solve the problems of small available data quantity of the orbit fragments and difficult evolution prediction of the orbit fragments, and can provide reference basis for determining the spacecraft needing important protection.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of space safety protection, in particular to a track fragment evolution method based on a chess.
Background
Orbital debris refers to all man-made, but without any function, spatial objects that travel around the earth, the primary sources including disintegration, explosion, and collision of spacecraft. The speed of the orbit fragments is extremely high, and certain threats exist for astronauts, spacecraft, satellites and the like, and if the orbit fragments collide with the astronauts, the spacecraft, the satellites and the like, serious casualties and equipment damage can be caused. In addition, track debris can prevent the implementation of space exploration programs and can also pose a hazard to the construction and use of space stops and future deep hole probes. In addition, the track fragments can burn in the atmosphere and release large amounts of harmful substances that can affect the atmosphere and the ground ecosystem.
The track fragment evolution prediction is an important support for realizing fragment tracking detection, establishing an environment and a database and formulating effective protection and slowing down measures. Track fragment evolution prediction research is mainly aimed at fragment track determination and prediction. However, the amount of data currently available for track fragments is small, and the evolution prediction of track fragments is difficult. Therefore, how to solve the above technical defects has become a technical problem to be solved by those skilled in the art.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a track fragment evolution method based on a chess, which can effectively solve the problems of small available data quantity of track fragments and difficult evolution prediction of the track fragments and can provide a reference basis for determining a spacecraft needing important protection.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides a track fragment evolution method based on a chess, which comprises the following steps:
deducing whether a spacecraft generates a fragment event trigger based on a chess system;
if the spacecraft generates the fragment event trigger, confirming that fragments are generated and acquiring the position information of the generated fragments;
inputting the position information of the fragments into a space track forecast model to obtain track forecast information of the fragments;
and simulating a fragment detention position and a falling path according to the track forecast information of the fragments.
Optionally, the spacecraft generated fragment event includes spacecraft control failure, spacecraft structural instability, spacecraft retirement disposal, and spacecraft collision accident.
Optionally, the method further comprises:
when a spacecraft generates a fragment event trigger, predicting the size of fragments generated by the spacecraft according to the weight of the spacecraft generated fragment event; wherein the weight of the spacecraft generated fragment event is positively correlated to the size of the spacecraft generated fragment.
Optionally, the method further comprises:
acquiring historical orbit information of a satellite;
and inputting the historical orbit information of the satellite into the space orbit forecast model, and outputting the orbit forecast information of the satellite.
Optionally, the method further comprises:
inputting the orbit forecast information of the fragments and the orbit forecast information of the satellites into a satellite-fragment collision model, and predicting the probability of collision events; the collision event includes a satellite-to-debris collision event and a satellite-to-satellite collision event.
Optionally, the types of satellite-to-debris collision events include inlay collisions, penetration collisions, and crash collisions.
Optionally, the types of satellite-to-satellite collision events include chase collisions, side collisions, and frontal collisions.
The invention provides a track fragment evolution method based on a chess, which comprises the following steps: deducing whether a spacecraft generates a fragment event trigger based on a chess system; if the spacecraft generates the fragment event trigger, confirming that fragments are generated and acquiring the position information of the generated fragments; inputting the position information of the fragments into a space track forecast model to obtain track forecast information of the fragments; and simulating a fragment detention position and a falling path according to the track forecast information of the fragments.
Therefore, the method for evolving the orbit fragments based on the soldier chess provided by the invention models all on-orbit spacecrafts in a soldier chess system, takes event triggering as a leading analysis whether fragments are generated or not, and performs evolution prediction (comprising orbit prediction, fragment retention and falling simulation) on the generated fragments through a neural network model when the fragments are generated, so that the problems of small available data quantity of the orbit fragments and difficult evolution prediction of the orbit fragments can be effectively solved, and a reference basis can be provided for determining the spacecrafts needing important protection.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings required in the prior art and the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is apparent that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for evolving track fragments based on a chess according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a block diagram of track fragment evolution based on a chess according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention provides a method for evolving track fragments based on a chess, which can effectively solve the problems of small available data quantity of the track fragments and difficult evolution prediction of the track fragments and can provide a reference basis for determining a spacecraft needing important protection.
For the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more apparent, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a flow chart of a track fragment evolution method based on a chess according to an embodiment of the present invention, and referring to fig. 1, the method includes:
s101: deducing whether a spacecraft generates a fragment event trigger based on a chess system;
according to the embodiment of the invention, models are built for all on-orbit spacecrafts in the chess system, whether the spacecrafts generate the event trigger of fragments is deduced based on the chess system, if the spacecrafts generate the event trigger of fragments, fragments are considered to be generated, and evolution forecast is carried out on the generated fragments.
Referring to FIG. 2, in some embodiments, the spacecraft generated fragment event includes a spacecraft control failure, a spacecraft structural instability, a spacecraft retirement disposal, and a spacecraft crash incident.
The event of generating fragments of the spacecraft set in the chess system in the embodiment comprises spacecraft control faults, unstable spacecraft structure, retired spacecraft abandonment and spacecraft collision accidents. When any spacecraft generates a fragment event trigger, the generation of fragments is considered.
S102: if the spacecraft generates the fragment event trigger, confirming that fragments are generated and acquiring the position information of the generated fragments;
when the spacecraft generates the event trigger of the fragments, the generation of the fragments is determined, and the position information of the fragments is further acquired. When the spacecraft generates the fragment event trigger, the chess system simulates the generation of fragments and generates the position information of the fragments, so that the position information of the generated fragments can be acquired from the chess system.
S103: inputting the position information of the fragments into a space track forecast model to obtain track forecast information of the fragments;
s104: and simulating a fragment detention position and a falling path according to the track forecast information of the fragments.
In the case where a precise trajectory of the debris can be obtained, the debris trajectory prediction can be achieved by means of trajectory integration. In case of failure to acquire precise track of fragments, track prediction is performed by means of artificial intelligent neural network model. Step S103 is intended to perform orbit prediction by means of the artificial intelligence neural network model. And inputting the position information of the fragments into a space orbit prediction model, and outputting the orbit prediction information of the fragments by the space orbit prediction model.
The space orbit prediction model can be obtained based on the training of a genetic algorithm and an LM algorithm. The process for obtaining the space orbit prediction model based on the training of the genetic algorithm and the LM algorithm comprises the following steps: and training and testing, wherein the training stage is to continuously calculate and adjust the weight and the threshold value of the model by using the input data, so that the training error of the model reaches the specified range. The test stage is to forecast by using a trained model, and evaluate the forecasting precision of the space orbit forecasting model by analyzing the direction error and the distance error of the orbit forecasting information of the fragments. And training the space orbit prediction model by using a genetic algorithm in the training stage to obtain a first weight and a first threshold of the space orbit prediction model. Based on the first weight, the first threshold and the mean square error of the predicted value of the space orbit prediction model obtained after training by using a genetic algorithm, training the space orbit prediction model by using an LM algorithm to obtain a second weight and a second threshold. The first weight, the first threshold, the second weight and the second threshold are parameters of a genetic algorithm and are used for controlling the selection and the evolution process of an individual.
On the basis of obtaining the track forecast information of the fragments through the space track forecast model, analyzing whether the fragments are detained or fall according to the track forecast information of the fragments, simulating the detained positions of the fragments when the fragments are detained, and simulating the falling paths when the fragments fall.
In some embodiments, further comprising:
when a spacecraft generates a fragment event trigger, predicting the size of fragments generated by the spacecraft according to the weight of the spacecraft generated fragment event; wherein the weight of the spacecraft generated fragment event is positively correlated to the size of the spacecraft generated fragment.
The corresponding weight can be given to the fragment events generated by different spacecraft according to the spacecraft model. And after the spacecraft generates the event trigger of the fragments, predicting the scale of the fragments according to the corresponding weight. For example, the higher the weight of the unstable spacecraft structure, the more fragments are generated, and the larger the fragment population size. The greater the weight of the spacecraft crash accident, the more serious the crash, the more serious the damage, the more fragments are generated, and the larger the fragment group size is.
In some embodiments, further comprising:
acquiring historical orbit information of a satellite;
and inputting the historical orbit information of the satellite into a space orbit prediction model, and outputting the orbit prediction information of the satellite.
The historical orbit information of the satellite comprises six elliptic orbit numbers, wherein the six elliptic orbit numbers comprise a semi-major axis, an eccentricity, an orbit inclination angle, an ascending intersection point right ascent, a near-place argument and a near-place moment.
In some embodiments, further comprising:
inputting the orbit forecast information of the fragments and the orbit forecast information of the satellites into a satellite-fragment collision model, and predicting the probability of collision events; the collision event includes a satellite-to-debris collision event and a satellite-to-satellite collision event.
Specifically, a satellite-to-fragment collision model is established, the orbit prediction information of the fragments and the orbit prediction information of the satellites are input into the satellite-to-fragment collision model, and the probability of occurrence of a satellite-to-fragment collision event and the probability of occurrence of a satellite-to-satellite collision event are output by the satellite-to-fragment collision model.
Among other types of satellite-to-debris collision events in some embodiments include inlay collisions, penetration collisions, and crash collisions.
The present embodiment classifies satellite and debris impact events into inlay collisions, penetration collisions, and damage collisions according to impact effects. Inlay collision refers to the joint movement of satellites and fragments after collision. Penetration collision refers to the penetration of a fragment through a satellite after the satellite collides with the fragment. The damage collision means that after the satellite collides with the fragments, the fragments penetrate the satellite and the satellite is disintegrated. The method comprises the steps of inputting the orbit forecast information of the fragments and the orbit forecast information of the satellites into a satellite-fragment collision model, and outputting the probability of mosaic collision, the probability of penetration collision and the probability of damage collision by the satellite-fragment collision model.
Additionally, in some embodiments, the types of satellite-to-satellite collision events include chase collisions, side collisions, and frontal collisions.
In this embodiment, according to the orbit direction, collision area, collision effect, etc. of the intersection point of the moving trajectory of the satellite to the collision point, the satellite-satellite collision events are classified into three categories: rear-end collisions, side collisions, and frontal collisions. A chase collision is one in which two satellites approach the collision point with a velocity angle of less than ninety degrees. A side impact refers to the approach of two satellites to an impact point with a velocity angle greater than ninety degrees, where the two satellites are in contact over a portion of their area. A frontal collision is a condition in which two satellites approach a collision point in a state in which the included speed angle is greater than ninety degrees, and the two satellites are in full-area contact during collision. The orbit prediction information of the fragments and the orbit prediction information of the satellites are input into a satellite-fragment collision model, and the probability of a chase collision, the probability of a side collision and the probability of a front collision are output by the satellite-fragment collision model.
In summary, the method for evolving the orbit fragments based on the soldier chess provided by the invention models all on-orbit spacecrafts in a soldier chess system, takes event triggering as a leading analysis whether fragments are generated or not, and performs evolution prediction (including orbit prediction, fragment retention and falling simulation) on the generated fragments through a neural network model when the fragments are generated, so that the problems of small available data quantity of the orbit fragments and difficult evolution prediction of the orbit fragments can be effectively solved, and a reference basis can be provided for determining the spacecrafts needing important protection.
In the description, each embodiment is described in a progressive manner, and each embodiment is mainly described by the differences from other embodiments, so that the same similar parts among the embodiments are mutually referred.
Those of skill would further appreciate that the various illustrative elements and algorithm steps described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented as electronic hardware, computer software, or combinations of both, and that the various illustrative elements and steps are described above generally in terms of functionality in order to clearly illustrate the interchangeability of hardware and software. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the solution. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present invention.
The steps of a method or algorithm described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be embodied directly in hardware, in a software module executed by a processor, or in a combination of the two. The software modules may be disposed in Random Access Memory (RAM), memory, read Only Memory (ROM), electrically programmable ROM, electrically erasable programmable ROM, registers, hard disk, a removable disk, a CD-ROM, or any other form of storage medium known in the art.
The track fragment evolution method based on the chess provided by the invention is described in detail. The principles and embodiments of the present invention have been described herein with reference to specific examples, the description of which is intended only to facilitate an understanding of the method of the present invention and its core ideas. It should be noted that it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that the present invention may be modified and practiced without departing from the spirit of the invention.
Claims (7)
1. The track fragment evolution method based on the soldier chess is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
deducing whether a spacecraft generates a fragment event trigger based on a chess system;
if the spacecraft generates the fragment event trigger, confirming that fragments are generated and acquiring the position information of the generated fragments;
inputting the position information of the fragments into a space track forecast model to obtain track forecast information of the fragments;
and simulating a fragment detention position and a falling path according to the track forecast information of the fragments.
2. The chess-based orbit fragment evolution method according to claim 1, wherein said spacecraft generated fragment events comprise spacecraft control failure, spacecraft structural instability, spacecraft retirement disposal and spacecraft collision accidents.
3. The chess-based orbit fragment evolution method according to claim 1, further comprising:
when a spacecraft generates a fragment event trigger, predicting the size of fragments generated by the spacecraft according to the weight of the spacecraft generated fragment event; wherein the weight of the spacecraft generated fragment event is positively correlated to the size of the spacecraft generated fragment.
4. The chess-based orbit fragment evolution method according to claim 1, further comprising:
acquiring historical orbit information of a satellite;
and inputting the historical orbit information of the satellite into the space orbit forecast model, and outputting the orbit forecast information of the satellite.
5. The chess-based orbit fragment evolution method according to claim 4, further comprising:
inputting the orbit forecast information of the fragments and the orbit forecast information of the satellites into a satellite-fragment collision model, and predicting the probability of collision events; the collision event includes a satellite-to-debris collision event and a satellite-to-satellite collision event.
6. The chess-based orbit fragment evolution method according to claim 5, wherein the types of satellite and fragment collision events include inlay collisions, penetration collisions and crash collisions.
7. The chess-based orbit fragment propagation method according to claim 5, wherein the types of satellite-to-satellite collision events include chase collisions, side collisions and frontal collisions.
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| CN202410171951.9A CN117744502A (en) | 2024-02-07 | 2024-02-07 | Rail fragment evolution method based on soldier chess |
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Citations (5)
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| KR20120089517A (en) * | 2010-12-15 | 2012-08-13 | 한국항공우주연구원 | System and Method for Collision Risk Management between Satellite and Space Debris |
| CN107066641A (en) * | 2016-11-23 | 2017-08-18 | 清华大学 | The numerical computation method and system of extensive space junk Distribution evolution |
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| CN113642785A (en) * | 2021-07-28 | 2021-11-12 | 中国测绘科学研究院 | Method, system and equipment for long-term prediction of space debris orbit based on prior information |
| CN117132105A (en) * | 2023-08-09 | 2023-11-28 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | Collision risk assessment method of satellite failure explosion fragments on large-scale constellation |
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- 2024-02-07 CN CN202410171951.9A patent/CN117744502A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (5)
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| KR20120089517A (en) * | 2010-12-15 | 2012-08-13 | 한국항공우주연구원 | System and Method for Collision Risk Management between Satellite and Space Debris |
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| CN113642785A (en) * | 2021-07-28 | 2021-11-12 | 中国测绘科学研究院 | Method, system and equipment for long-term prediction of space debris orbit based on prior information |
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