CN117725981B - Power distribution network fault prediction method based on optimal time window mechanism - Google Patents

Power distribution network fault prediction method based on optimal time window mechanism Download PDF

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CN117725981B
CN117725981B CN202410176910.9A CN202410176910A CN117725981B CN 117725981 B CN117725981 B CN 117725981B CN 202410176910 A CN202410176910 A CN 202410176910A CN 117725981 B CN117725981 B CN 117725981B
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CN117725981A (en
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邓飞
申时凯
何俊
钱开国
王宇娇
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Kunming University
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    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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    • Y04SSYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of power distribution network fault prediction, and discloses a power distribution network fault prediction method based on an optimal time window mechanism. The power distribution network fault prediction method based on the optimal time window mechanism is characterized in that an optimal weight is found for the established neural network model, an optimal time window mechanism is established by matching historical data, and an optimal time window width is trainedInputting real-time data as network data, predicting failure by using jagged state of output value, and repeating for several times when jagged state is intermittentWhen the pre-judging fault is about to occur, an alarm is sent out, and when the jagged state iterates for a time intervalWhen the method is used, the pre-judging fault does not occur, and an alarm is not sent out.

Description

Power distribution network fault prediction method based on optimal time window mechanism
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power distribution network fault prediction, in particular to a power distribution network fault prediction method based on an optimal time window mechanism.
Background
In areas with high forest coverage rate and many natural protection areas, when extreme weather such as windy and rainy weather occurs, the bare conductor in the power grid infrastructure is extremely easy to generate a ground fault, and how to safely and rapidly treat electric shock, mountain fire and personal casualties caused by the ground fault of the power distribution network in the mountain area is always a long-standing pain point and a long-standing difficult problem.
Disclosure of Invention
(One) solving the technical problems
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a power distribution network fault prediction method based on an optimal time window mechanism, which has the advantages of predicting faults in time, giving an alarm and the like, and solves the technical problems.
(II) technical scheme
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: a power distribution network fault prediction method based on an optimal time window mechanism comprises the following steps:
s1, performing fault marking on historical data of a power distribution network, and establishing a neural network model;
S2, establishing an optimal time window mechanism for judging the fault state;
s3, training the model, and predicting the faults by matching with an optimal time window mechanism.
As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the neural network model in step S1 includes six parts, where the first part is an input layer, the second part is a first hidden layer, the third part is a second hidden layer, the fourth part is a third hidden layer, the fifth part is an output layer, and the sixth part is a recursive link.
As a preferred technical scheme of the present invention, the expression of the output result of the neural network model is as follows:
Wherein P represents the number of input elements x (t), t represents the time iteration times, I p (t) represents the network input value, P+1, N, Q respectively represent the number of input layer nodes, the number of first hidden layer nodes and the number of second hidden layer nodes, f qnp[Ip (t) ] represents the activation function of the network input value I p (t), Representing the summation of internal Q data,/>Representing the cumulative multiplication of internal N data,/>Representing summing the internal P +1 data.
As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the overall input value I (t) = [ x 1(t),x2(t),…,xp(t),IP+1(t)]T ] of the neural network model, the network input value I p (t) includes a normal input value x p (t) and an output value y (t-1) of the last iteration, and a specific expression of the network input value I p (t) is as follows:
Where y (t-1) =0 when p=1.
As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the expression of the weight vector W 0 between the second hidden layer and the third hidden layer and the expression of the weight vector W n between the first hidden layer and the input layer are as follows:
W0=[w01,w02,…,w0Q]
Wn=[wn1,wn2,…,wnP,wn(P+1)]
Wherein Q is the number of nodes of the second hidden layer, w 0Q represents the weight vector of the corresponding node, n represents the number of nodes of the first hidden layer, w n(P+1) represents the weight vector of the corresponding node, and the variable epsilon (t) of the input layer corresponds to the output epsilon n (t) of the first hidden layer as follows:
Wherein, Representing summing the internal p+1 data, W n is a weight vector between the first hidden layer and the input layer, W np is a weight vector of the corresponding node, I p (t) is a network input value, and the connection weight between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is fixed to 1.
As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the connection manner between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer includes full connection and partial connection, when the connection manner between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is full connection, the number of connection combinations of neurons is 2 N, when the connection manner between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is partial connection, the number of connection combinations of neurons is less than 2 N, and when the connection manner between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is partial connection, the network connection combination expression between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is as follows:
Wherein A q is the set of the q-th neuron in the second hidden layer connected to the whole first hidden layer, B n is the set of the n-th neuron in the first hidden layer connected to the whole second hidden layer, For the number of elements in A q,/>For the number of elements in B n, the output δ q (t) of the second hidden layer is expressed as follows:
Wherein ε i represents the i-th output value of the first hidden layer, W iIi (t) represents the conversion expression of the variable of the input layer corresponding to the output of the first hidden layer, Representing the cumulative multiplication of the internal data.
As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the output y (t) of the third hidden layer is expressed as follows:
where f represents the activation function, W 0q represents the elements in the set W 0, delta (t) represents the total output of the second hidden layer, Representing summing the internal data.
As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the neural network model training set and the error function E (w) are expressed as follows:
Wherein, The training sample set is represented, I j (t) represents a corresponding input set, O j (t) represents a corresponding output set, J represents the total number of elements of the sample set, J represents a J-th element, and the value is iterated when training is carried out each time, wherein the specific iteration expression is as follows:
Wherein, Representing the weight change of the error function to W 0 at the kth iteration, W 0 represents the weight vector between the second hidden layer and the third hidden layer,/>Representing the weight change of the error function to W n at the kth iteration, W n represents the weight vector W n,/>, between the first hidden layer and the input layerRepresenting E (W) to perform bias calculation on W 0、Wn, and eta represents the learning rate of the training process.
As a preferable technical scheme of the invention, the specific process of the step S2 is as follows:
S2.1, reading historical fault information;
S2.2, searching an optimal time window, searching a serrated time interval upwards according to the historical fault information, and continuously comparing with the historical data until determining an optimal time window width T *;
S2.3, comparing the actual saw-tooth time width with the optimal time window width T *.
As a preferable technical scheme of the invention, the process of the S3 is as follows:
s3.1, training a neural network model;
S3.2, taking the test set data as network input, and comparing the output value with the fault labeling value;
S3.3, inputting real-time data as network data, and predicting faults by using a state that the output value is saw-toothed:
when the serrated time width delta T is more than or equal to T *, pre-judging that the fault is about to occur, and sending out an alarm;
when the sawtooth-shaped time width delta T is smaller than T *, the pre-judging fault cannot occur, and no alarm is given.
Compared with the prior art, the invention provides a power distribution network fault prediction method based on an optimal time window mechanism, which has the following beneficial effects:
According to the invention, the optimal weight is found out for the established neural network model, the optimal time window mechanism is established by matching with historical data, the optimal time window width T * is trained, then real-time data is used as network data to be input, the output value is used for carrying out fault prediction in a zigzag state, when the iteration time interval delta T of the zigzag state is more than or equal to T *, the fault is predicted to be happened, an alarm is sent out, and when the iteration time interval delta T of the zigzag state is less than T *, the fault is predicted not to happen, and the alarm is not sent out. Therefore, the effects of predicting the transient faults and eliminating hidden danger are achieved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a neural network according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a mechanism of a jagged optimal time window according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Referring to fig. 1-3, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: a power distribution network fault prediction method based on an optimal time window mechanism comprises the following steps:
s1, performing fault marking on historical data of a power distribution network, and establishing a neural network model;
The neural network model in step S1 includes six parts, where the first part is an input layer, the second part is a first hidden layer, the third part is a second hidden layer, the fourth part is a third hidden layer, the fifth part is an output layer, and the sixth part is a recursive link (shown as a dotted line in fig. 1).
The expression of the output result of the neural network model is as follows:
Wherein P represents the number of input elements x (t), t represents the time iteration times, I p (t) represents the network input value, P+1, N, Q respectively represent the number of input layer nodes, the number of first hidden layer nodes and the number of second hidden layer nodes, f qnp[Ip (t) ] represents the activation function of the network input value I p (t), Representing the summation of internal Q data,/>Representing the cumulative multiplication of internal N data,/>Representing summing the internal P +1 data.
The overall input value I (t) = [ x 1(t),x2(t),…,xp(t),IP+1(t)]T, the network input value I p (t) includes a normal input value x p (t) and an output value y (t-1) of the last iteration, and the specific expression of the network input value I p (t) is as follows:
Where when p=1, y (t-1) =0, and during the first iteration, the input element of the network contains only x p (t). From the second iteration, the recursive element y (t-1) is added to I p (t).
The weight vector W 0 between the second hidden layer and the third hidden layer, and the weight vector W n between the first hidden layer and the input layer are expressed as follows:
W0=[w01,w02,…,w0Q]
Wn=[wn1,wn2,…,wnP,wn(P+1)]
Wherein Q is the number of nodes of the second hidden layer, w 0Q represents the weight vector of the corresponding node, n represents the number of nodes of the first hidden layer, w n(P+1) represents the weight vector of the corresponding node, and the variable epsilon (t) = { epsilon 1(t),…,εN (t) } of the input layer corresponds to the output epsilon n (t) of the first hidden layer as follows:
Wherein, Representing summing the internal p+1 data, W n is a weight vector between the first hidden layer and the input layer, W np is a weight vector of the corresponding node, I p (t) is a network input value, and the connection weight between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is fixed to 1.
The connection mode between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer comprises full connection and partial connection, when the connection mode between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is full connection, the connection combination number of the neurons is 2 N, when the connection mode between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is partial connection, the connection combination number of the neurons is less than 2 N, and the network connection combination expression between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is as follows:
Wherein A q (1.ltoreq.q.ltoreq.Q) is the whole first hidden layer connected with the set of the Q-th neuron in the second hidden layer, B n (1.ltoreq.n.ltoreq.N) is the whole second hidden layer connected with the set of the N-th neuron in the first hidden layer, For the number of elements in A q,/>For the number of elements in B n, the output δ q (t) expression of the second hidden layer is as follows:
Wherein ε i represents the i-th output value of the first hidden layer, W iIi (t) represents the conversion expression of the variable of the input layer corresponding to the output of the first hidden layer, Representing the cumulative multiplication of the internal data.
The output y (t) of the third hidden layer is expressed as follows:
where f represents the activation function, W 0q represents the elements in the set W 0, delta (t) represents the total output of the second hidden layer, Representing summing the internal data.
The neural network model training set and the error function E (w) are expressed as follows:
Wherein, The training sample set is represented, I j (t) represents a corresponding input set, O j (t) represents a corresponding output set, J represents the total number of elements of the sample set, J represents a J-th element, and the value is iterated when training is carried out each time, wherein the specific iteration expression is as follows:
Wherein, Representing the weight change of the error function to W 0 at the kth iteration, W 0 represents the weight vector between the second hidden layer and the third hidden layer,/>Representing the weight change of the error function to W n at the kth iteration, W n represents the weight vector W n,/>, between the first hidden layer and the input layerRepresenting E (W) to perform partial derivative calculation on W 0、Wn, wherein eta represents the learning rate of the training process and is usually a fixed value;
s2, an optimal time window mechanism is established, and faults occurring in the power distribution network are mainly classified into permanent faults and transient faults. For permanent faults, historical fault data is used as network input, and an optimal time window is searched: finding out a sawtooth-shaped output state value, namely, the last moment of output value is a fault state, the current moment of output value is a normal state, the next moment of output value is a fault state, and the like, training an optimal time window width T *, and taking the sawtooth-shaped time width (namely, the sawtooth-shaped state iteration time interval) as a basis for judging the transient fault so as to predict the transient fault and eliminate hidden danger as long as the sawtooth-shaped time width is more than or equal to the optimal time window width;
s3, training the model, and predicting faults by matching with an optimal time window mechanism;
Model training, namely dividing historical fault information data into a training set and a testing set by using the thought of supervised learning, and training the neural network by using the training set. The historical data is subjected to fault labeling ('0' is represented as a fault state, '1' is represented as a normal state), then the historical data is used as different network inputs, the neural network model is trained, and the optimal weight is found out on the basis of meeting certain errors.
And secondly, verifying the model, namely taking the test set data as network input, and comparing the output value with the fault labeling value, so as to verify the accuracy and timeliness of the model.
Finally, the fault prediction is carried out by taking real-time data as network data to be input and using the state that the output value is in a saw tooth shape to carry out the fault prediction:
when the serrated time width delta T is more than or equal to T *, pre-judging that the fault is about to occur, and sending out an alarm;
when the sawtooth-shaped time width delta T is smaller than T *, the pre-judging fault cannot occur, and no alarm is given.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made therein without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.

Claims (5)

1. A power distribution network fault prediction method based on an optimal time window mechanism is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the method comprises the following steps:
s1, performing fault marking on historical data of a power distribution network, and establishing a neural network model;
The neural network model in the step S1 includes six parts, wherein the first part is an input layer, the second part is a first hidden layer, the third part is a second hidden layer, the fourth part is a third hidden layer, the fifth part is an output layer, and the sixth part is a recursive link;
the expression of the output result of the neural network model is as follows:
Wherein P represents the number of input elements x (t), t represents the time iteration times, I p (t) represents the network input value, P+1, N, Q respectively represent the number of input layer nodes, the number of first hidden layer nodes and the number of second hidden layer nodes, f qnp[Ip (t) ] represents the activation function of the network input value I p (t), Representing the summation of internal Q data,/>Representing the cumulative multiplication of internal N data,/>Representing summing the internal p+1 data;
The overall input value I (t) = [ x 1(t),x2(t),...,xp(t),IP+1(t)]T ] of the neural network model, the network input value I p (t) includes a normal input value x p (t) and an output value y (t-1) of the last iteration, and the specific expression of the network input value I p (t) is as follows:
Wherein when p=1, y (t-1) =0
S2, establishing an optimal time window mechanism for judging the fault state;
the specific process of the step S2 is as follows:
S2.1, reading historical fault information;
S2.2, searching an optimal time window, searching a serrated time interval upwards according to the historical fault information, and continuously comparing with the historical data until determining an optimal time window width T *, wherein the optimal time window is as follows: the method comprises the steps of presenting a sawtooth-shaped output state value, namely, the output value at the previous moment is in a fault state, the current moment is in a normal state, and the next moment is in a fault state;
S2.3 comparing the actual saw-tooth time width with the optimal time window width T *
S3, training the model, and predicting faults by matching with an optimal time window mechanism;
the process of S3 is as follows:
s3.1, training a neural network model;
S3.2, taking the test set data as network input, and comparing the output value with the fault labeling value;
S3.3, inputting real-time data as network data, and predicting faults by using a state that the output value is saw-toothed:
when the serrated time width delta T is more than or equal to T *, pre-judging that the fault is about to occur, and sending out an alarm;
when the sawtooth-shaped time width delta T is smaller than T *, the pre-judging fault cannot occur, and no alarm is given.
2. The power distribution network fault prediction method based on the optimal time window mechanism according to claim 1, wherein the power distribution network fault prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the weight vector W 0 between the second hidden layer and the third hidden layer, and the weight vector W n between the first hidden layer and the input layer are expressed as follows:
W0=[w01,w02,...,w0Q]
Wn=[wn1,wn2,…,wnP,wn(P+1)]
Wherein Q is the number of nodes of the second hidden layer, w 0Q represents the weight vector of the corresponding node, n represents the number of nodes of the first hidden layer, w n(P+1) represents the weight vector of the corresponding node, and the variable epsilon (t) of the input layer corresponds to the output epsilon n (t) of the first hidden layer as follows:
Wherein, Representing summing the internal p+1 data, W n is a weight vector between the first hidden layer and the input layer, W np is a weight vector of the corresponding node, I p (t) is a network input value, and the connection weight between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is fixed to 1.
3. The power distribution network fault prediction method based on the optimal time window mechanism according to claim 2, wherein the power distribution network fault prediction method is characterized by: the connection mode between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer comprises full connection and partial connection, when the connection mode between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is full connection, the connection combination number of the neurons is 2 N, when the connection mode between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is partial connection, the connection combination number of the neurons is less than 2 N, and the network connection combination expression between the first hidden layer and the second hidden layer is as follows:
Wherein A q is the set of the q-th neuron in the second hidden layer connected to the whole first hidden layer, B n is the set of the n-th neuron in the first hidden layer connected to the whole second hidden layer, For the number of elements in A q,/>For the number of elements in B n, the output δ q (t) of the second hidden layer is expressed as follows:
Wherein ε i represents the i-th output value of the first hidden layer, W iIi (t) represents the conversion expression of the variable of the input layer corresponding to the output of the first hidden layer, Representing the cumulative multiplication of the internal data.
4. A power distribution network fault prediction method based on an optimal time window mechanism according to claim 3, wherein: the output y (t) expression of the third hidden layer is as follows:
where f represents the activation function, W 0q represents the elements in the set W 0, delta (t) represents the total output of the second hidden layer, Representing summing the internal data.
5. The power distribution network fault prediction method based on the optimal time window mechanism according to claim 1, wherein the power distribution network fault prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the neural network model training set and the error function E (w) are expressed as follows:
Wherein, The training sample set is represented, I j (t) represents a corresponding input set, O j (t) represents a corresponding output set, J represents the total number of elements of the sample set, J represents a J-th element, and the value is iterated when training is carried out each time, wherein the specific iteration expression is as follows:
Wherein, Representing the weight change of the error function to W 0 at the kth iteration, W 0 represents the weight vector between the second hidden layer and the third hidden layer,/>Representing the weight change of the error function to W n at the kth iteration, W n represents the weight vector W n,/>, between the first hidden layer and the input layerRepresenting E (W) to perform bias calculation on W 0、Wn, and eta represents the learning rate of the training process.
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