CN117668773B - Method for predicting washout elevation of dike feet of ancient sea pond under combined action of strong tidal current river segments Hong Chao - Google Patents
Method for predicting washout elevation of dike feet of ancient sea pond under combined action of strong tidal current river segments Hong Chao Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for predicting the washout elevation of the dike feet of an ancient sea pond under the combined action of a strong tidal bore Hong Chao, which comprises the steps of firstly acquiring and calculating related data, then judging Hong Chao power conditions of washout of the dike feet, and respectively establishing a dike foot washout elevation prediction model with flood as a main and tidal water as an auxiliary pond section and a dike foot washout elevation prediction model with tidal water as a main and flood as an auxiliary pond section to finish the prediction of the washout elevation of the dike feet. And acquiring and calculating the correlated data of the estuary runoff tide with the same time of the topographic data of the strong tidal bore river reach, and establishing a multiple regression model between the embankment foot scouring elevation and different Hong Chao power combinations, so that the embankment foot scouring elevation of the strong tidal bore river reach under the combined action of Hong Chao can be accurately predicted.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of embankment engineering scouring elevation monitoring, in particular to a method for predicting an ancient sea pond embankment foot scouring elevation under the combined action of strong tidal current river segments Hong Chao.
Background
The embankment is the most important engineering measure and barrier for protecting the estuary coast from flood, storm surge and other attacks. Under the combined action of flood and tide, the safety threat of the washout of the dike feet to the sea pond is extremely great, and the washout of the dike feet is one of the important reasons for the integral instability of the dike.
The strong tidal bore has the characteristics of bidirectional flow of a common river mouth Hong Chao and the specificity of the strong tidal bore, the special power structure determines that the erosion of the embankment feet of the strong tidal bore is severe and complex, the hydrodynamic force of the strong tidal bore of the Qian pond river mouth causes severe erosion of the embankment feet of the ancient sea pond, the maximum erosion amplitude of the embankment feet in the year can reach more than 7m, the erosion of the embankment feet is severe and regular complex, and the stability of the embankment structure is greatly influenced. The method is used for accurately predicting the washout elevation of the dike feet of the ancient sea pond under the combined action of the strong tidal current river segments Hong Chao, so that the safe transportation and the health evaluation of the dike are facilitated.
At present, the prediction calculation method for the erosion elevation of the dike foot mainly comprises empirical formulas in the dike engineering design specification including D2.1-5, D2.2-1, D2.2-2, a B.2.2 formula in the river channel improvement design specification and the like. However, the formula is mainly suitable for unidirectional flood scouring, the calculated result of the strong tidal volume under the combined action of flood and tide is generally smaller than the measured value, the error is larger, and the embankment foot scouring elevation under the combined action of the strong tidal volume Hong Chao cannot be accurately obtained.
The foregoing background knowledge is intended to assist those of ordinary skill in the art in understanding the prior art that is closer to the present application and to facilitate an understanding of the inventive concepts and aspects of the present application, and it should be understood that the foregoing background art should not be used to assess the novelty of the inventive concepts that lie within the scope of the present application where no explicit evidence is presented before the filing date of this patent application.
Disclosure of Invention
Technical problem
In order to solve the problems, the invention aims to provide a method for predicting the washout elevation of the dike feet of an ancient sea under the combined action of a strong tidal bore Hong Chao, obtain and calculate the related data of the runoff tides of the estuary at the same time of the topography data of the strong tidal bore, establish a multiple regression model between the washout elevation of the dike feet and different Hong Chao power combinations, and accurately predict the washout elevation of the dike feet of the strong tidal bore under the combined action of Hong Chao.
Technical proposal
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present inventors have conducted intensive studies and have proposed a method for predicting the washout elevation of the dike, the method obtains and calculates relevant data of the runoff tides of the esthetic river estuary with the topography data of the long series of actual measurement near the dike, through the judgement of the dynamic mechanism of Hong Chao washout process, establish the multiple regression model between the washout elevation of the dike and different Hong Chao dynamic combinations, calculate the washout elevation of the dike accordingly, have improved the prediction accuracy of the washout elevation of the dike of the estuary river estuary under the Hong Chao combined action.
Namely, the present invention specifically includes the following aspects.
The model for predicting the washout elevation of the dike foot of the ancient sea pond under the combined action of the strong tidal bore Hong Chao comprises calculating the washout elevation of the dike foot of the ancient sea pond according to a formula (8),
(8)
Wherein S is a flushing elevation (m); s 0 is the lowest elevation (m) within the range of 30m of the previous measurement; q m is the maximum daily average flow rate between the measuring times (m 3/s);Hm is the maximum tidal range (m) of the station close to the tide level between the measuring times, a, b, c, d is a coefficient, e is a constant term and is between-3.0 and 2.0, QL is the average flow rate (m 3/s) of the upstream month of the estuary in the period of 6 months before the measuring times if the ancient sea pond dike is mainly used for flood and the tide is an auxiliary pond section, and QL is the average low tide level (m) of the station close to the tide level between the measuring times if the ancient sea pond dike is mainly used for tide and the flood is an auxiliary pond section.
As a further preference for the technical scheme of the invention, if the ancient sea pond dike foot is mainly used for flood and the tidal water is used as an auxiliary pond section, the values of the coefficients are as follows: a takes a value of 0.3 to 0.7; b takes a value of 0.0003-0.002; c takes a value of 0.01 to 0.12; d takes a value of 0.12 to 0.25; e is a constant term and takes a value of 2.0 to 4.5.
As a further preferred aspect of the present invention, if the ancient sea pond dike is a main tidal water and the flood is an auxiliary pond section, the coefficients are as follows: a takes a value of 0.05 to 0.9; b takes the value of-0.06 to 0.7; c takes the value of-0.02 to 0.08; d takes a value of 0.10 to 0.35; e is a constant term and takes a value of-3.0 to 2.0.
The method for predicting the washout elevation of the dike feet of the ancient sea under the combined action of the strong surge river section Hong Chao comprises the following steps:
Step one, acquiring and calculating related data: acquiring the lowest elevation of the first time in the range of 30m in front of the dike, and calculating to acquire the average daily flow of the estuary upstream in the observation period of the topography in front of the pond in the past i months and the maximum average daily flow between the measurements; acquiring time-by-time tide level data of a sea pond close to a long-term tide station, and calculating to obtain a flood tide level difference, a falling tide level difference, a maximum tide difference between measuring times and an average low tide level between measuring times;
judging Hong Chao power conditions of the embankment foot scouring: calculating the flushing depth of the plum flood season of 4 to 7 months and the flushing depth of the autumn climax of 7 to 11 months in each year by statistics through the lowest elevation of once a month obtained in the step one, and judging Hong Chao power of the embankment foot flushing according to the flushing depth of the plum flood season and the flushing depth of the autumn climax;
Step three, building a embankment foot scouring elevation prediction model with flood as a main and tidal water as an auxiliary pond section: if the scouring power in the second step is judged to be that flood is main and tidal water is auxiliary, constructing a dyke foot scouring prediction formula (8 a):
(8a)
Wherein S is a flushing elevation (m); s 0 is the lowest elevation (m) within the range of 30m of the previous measurement; q 6 is the average flow of the upstream month of the estuary of the first 6 months of measurement (m 3/s);Qm is the maximum average daily flow between measurements (m 3/s);Hm is the maximum tide difference (m) between measurements near the tide level station; a, b, c, d is the coefficient, wherein a is 0.3-0.7; b is 0.0003-0.002; c is 0.01-0.12; d is 0.12-0.25; e is a constant term; and 2.0-4.5);
Step four, building a embankment foot scouring elevation prediction model with tidal water as a main and flood as an auxiliary pond section: as an alternative to the third step, if the second step determines that tidal water flushing is the main and flood flushing is the auxiliary river reach, constructing a dyke foot flushing prediction formula (8 b):
(8b)
Wherein S is a flushing elevation (m); s 0 is the lowest elevation (m) within the range of 30m of the previous measurement; y L is the average low level (m) of the next adjacent level stations between measurements; q m is the maximum daily average flow between the measuring times (m 3/s);Hm is the maximum tide difference (m) of the adjacent tide level station between the measuring times; a, b, c, d is the coefficient, wherein a is 0.05-0.9, b is-0.06-0.7, c is-0.02-0.08, d is 0.10-0.35, e is a constant item, and the scouring elevation is predicted according to a prediction model.
As a further preferable aspect of the present invention, in the step one, the step of calculating the average daily flow rate and the maximum average daily flow rate between the measurements of the upstream river mouth in the past i months in the pre-pond topography observation period specifically includes:
The daily average flow q (m 3/s) of the upstream runoff station of the estuary in the pre-pond topography observation period is collected, the average flow Qi of the upstream month of the estuary in the i months before the measurement is further calculated according to a formula (1), and the calculation formula is as follows:
(1)
Wherein Q i is the average flow of upstream river mouth of the previous i months, and the unit is m 3/s, which refers to the average value of daily average flow in the previous i months; n is the total number of days of the first i months;
The maximum average daily flow Q m between the measuring intervals is calculated and obtained, and the unit is m 3/s.
As a further preferable aspect of the present invention, in the step one, the step of calculating to obtain the flood tide difference, the drop tide difference, the maximum tide difference between the measurements and the average low tide level between the measurements specifically includes:
Collecting time-by-time tide level data L (m) of a sea pond close to a long-term tide station, extracting a high tide level L H and a low tide level L L of the current month of measurement from the time-by-time tide level data, calculating a flood tide difference H R and a falling tide difference H F in a time-by-time manner according to a formula (2) and a formula (3), and further obtaining a maximum tide difference H m between the measurement times according to a formula (4), wherein the units are m;
(2)
(3)
(4)
further calculating an average low tide level Y L between the measurements according to the formula (5), wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
(5)
Wherein Y L is the average value of the moisture-by-moisture low tide level L L between the measurements, and the unit is m; j is the total number of the moisture-free low tide levels among the measurements.
As a further preferable mode of the technical scheme of the invention, in the second step, the step of judging Hong Chao power of the embankment foot flushing according to the flushing depth in the flood season of the plum and the flushing depth of the big tide in autumn specifically comprises the following steps:
The lowest elevation S L (m) of once a month obtained in the first step is adopted to calculate the flushing amplitude d Plum blossom of the plum flood season of 4 to 7 months in each year by statistics according to a formula (6) year by year, the flushing depth d Tide of the big tide of the autumn of 7 to 11 months in each year is calculated by statistics according to a formula (7) year by year,
(6)
(7)
Wherein S L4、SL7、SL11 is the lowest elevation (m) in the range of 30m before the dike for 4 months, 7 months and 11 months respectively;
The establishment of the discrimination conditions is as follows:
if d Plum blossom is greater than d Tide and d Plum blossom of the year of the typical flood event is greater than 2 times of d Tide , judging that the flood is main and the tidal water is auxiliary pond section;
If d Plum blossom is less than d Tide and d Tide of the year of the typical flood event is more than 2 times of d Plum blossom , determining that the tide is the main and the flood is the auxiliary pond section.
As a further preferable mode of the technical scheme of the invention, in the third step and the fourth step, when coefficients calculated by a specific formula of the embankment scouring elevation prediction model are selected, the coefficients are calibrated for a plurality of times, and when the correlation coefficient R between the actual measured value of the sample and the scattered point of the predicted value is more than or equal to 0.8, prediction calculation can be performed. When the prediction is carried out, only the lowest elevation S 0 (m) within the range of 30m of the previous measurement is required to be given according to a prediction formula; the measurement statistical values such as the average flow Q i(m3/s of the upstream month of the estuary before the measurement, the maximum average daily flow Q m(m3/s between the measurements, the maximum tide difference H m (m) of the adjacent tide level stations between the measurements, the average low tide level Y L (m) between the measurements and the like can be used for rapidly predicting and calculating the lowest elevation of the dike foot within the range of 30 m.
By judging the power mechanism of the washout process of the dike feet Hong Chao, flood is established as a main part, tidal water is an auxiliary river section and tidal water washout is a main part, and quantitative relation of the washout elevation prediction of the dike feet under the two conditions of flood washout as an auxiliary part is fully considered, so that the prediction model is more perfect, and the prediction accuracy of the washout of the dike feet is effectively improved; when the method for predicting the washout elevation of the dike foot is used for prediction, the change of the washout elevation of the dike foot can be rapidly predicted only according to the measurement statistical values such as the previous measured elevation, the average flow of the previous 6 months, the maximum average flow between the measurements, the maximum tide difference between the measurements, the average low tide level between the measurements and the like, and the method has remarkable simplicity.
A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, a communication interface, and a communication bus; the memory, the processor and the communication interface communicate with each other through the communication bus; the memory is used for storing a computer program; the processor is configured to execute a computer program stored in the memory, where the processor implements at least one step of the method for predicting the wash elevation of the foot of the ancient sea pond under the combined action of the strong tidal current segment Hong Chao when executing the computer program.
A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which when executed by a processor performs at least one step of the method for predicting a palace dike foot washout elevation under the combined action of the strong tidal volume Hong Chao.
The above-mentioned preferable conditions can be combined with each other to obtain a specific embodiment on the basis of common knowledge in the art.
Advantageous effects
According to the invention, by acquiring and calculating the relevant data of the estuary runoff tides in the same period of the topographic data and judging the power mechanism of the washout process of the embankment feet Hong Chao, a quantitative relation of the washout elevation prediction of the embankment feet is established under the two conditions of mainly flood, mainly tidal water and mainly tidal water, and mainly flood, and when the washout elevation prediction method of the embankment feet is used for prediction, the washout elevation change of the embankment feet can be rapidly predicted only according to the measurement statistic values such as the previous measured elevation, the average flow of the previous 6 months, the maximum daily average flow among the measured times, the maximum tidal difference among the measured times, the average low tide among the measured times and the like, and the method has remarkable simplicity. The method fully considers the difference of the erosion and deposition change, so that the prediction model is more perfect, the erosion elevation of the embankment is deduced according to the difference, the prediction accuracy of the erosion of the embankment of the strong tidal bore under the common action of Hong Chao is effectively improved, and the correlation between the actual measurement value and the formula prediction value is verified to be basically consistent and not lower than 0.8.
The invention adopts the technical proposal to realize the aim, makes up the defects of the prior art, has reasonable design and convenient operation.
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To make the above and/or other objects, features, advantages and examples of the present invention more comprehensible, the accompanying drawings which are needed in the detailed description of the present invention are simply illustrative of the present invention and other drawings can be obtained without inventive effort for those skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 shows a flow chart of a method for predicting the washout elevation of the dike feet of an ancient sea pond under the combined action of a strong tidal bore Hong Chao;
FIG. 2 shows a statistical diagram of the depth of Hong Chao scour in the range of 30m outside the dike foot with 78k+050 cross section where the temple of the seedling bed is located;
FIG. 3 shows a statistical schematic diagram of the Hong Chao flushing depth within 30m of the 74K+100 section dike foot where the old salt bin is located;
FIG. 4 shows a model for predicting the erosion of a dike foot with a 78k+050 cross section where a temple of a seedling bed is located;
FIG. 5 shows a graph of correlation between measured values and predicted values of samples of 78k+050 cross sections where the temple is located;
FIG. 6 shows a 74K+100 section dyke foot washout prediction model of an old salt bin;
FIG. 7 shows a schematic diagram of correlation between measured values and predicted values of 74K+100 section samples of old salt bins.
Detailed Description
Suitable substitutions and/or modifications of the process parameters will be apparent to those skilled in the art from the disclosure herein, however, it is to be expressly pointed out that all such substitutions and/or modifications are intended to be encompassed by the present invention. While the products and methods of preparation of the present invention have been described in terms of preferred embodiments, it will be apparent to those skilled in the relevant art that variations and modifications can be made in the products and methods of preparation described herein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
Unless defined otherwise, technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs. The present invention uses the methods and materials described herein; other suitable methods and materials known in the art may be used. The materials, methods, and examples described herein are illustrative only and not intended to be limiting. All publications, patent applications, patents, provisional applications, database entries, and other references mentioned herein, and the like, are incorporated herein by reference in their entirety. In case of conflict, the present specification, including definitions, will control.
Unless specifically stated otherwise, the materials, methods, and examples described herein are illustrative only and not intended to be limiting. Although methods and materials similar or equivalent to those described herein can be used in the practice or testing of the present invention, suitable methods and materials are described herein.
The following description of the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clear and complete, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present application, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the application without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the application. Meanwhile, the embodiments of the present application and features in the embodiments may be combined with each other without collision.
The present invention is described in detail below
Example 1:
The method is characterized by providing an example of predicting the washout elevation of the feet of the ancient sea pond under the combined action of the strong tidal bore Hong Chao, selecting two representative sections of a Haining salt bin-seedling bed temple of the strong tidal bore of the Qian pond, namely 74K+100 (salt bin section) and 78k+050 (seedling bed temple section), and the first-line river is a gravity type fish scale and strip stone ancient sea pond built in Qing dynasty, kangxi and Qianlong periods, and then is a standard pond with a defense standard in first meeting for 100 years.
The lower part of the Qian Tangjiang from Fuchun river power station dam is the tidal river segment, namely Qian Tangjiang river mouth, with the whole length of 291km. According to the difference of natural conditions and the evolution characteristics of the river bed, the estuary is divided into a river segment, an estuary segment and a tide segment (Hangzhou bay), and the estuary segment runoffs and the tide act together and the river bed is fluxed vigorously. The actual tidal bore height of the tidal bore in the Qian Tangjiang river is generally 1-3 m, the maximum tidal bore height can reach more than 3m, and the tidal bore propagation speed is mostly 4-8 m/s. The average runoff amount of the power station in You Fuchun river on the qian river is 301 hundred million m 3, the annual continuous runoff distribution is uneven in annual runoff, and the runoff amount of 4 months in the plum flood period (4-7 months) accounts for 52.7% of the total annual runoff amount. The estuary tide type is non-regular half daily tide, the average tide difference of the sea-ning ancient sea pond estuary salt official station for years is 3.23m, the average tide difference of pump for years is 5.66m, the maximum tide difference can reach 9.15m, and the estuary tide type is the first of China. River mouth is mainly made of sea-phase incoming sand, the fine particles of the bed substrate are mainly made of silt, and the bed changes frequently and severely under the action of strong tide power and runoff with larger amplitude in the annual year.
Specifically, as shown in the flow chart of fig. 1, the method for predicting the foot washout elevation of the ancient sea pond under the combined action of the strong tidal bore Hong Chao provided by the embodiment includes the following steps.
Step one, acquiring and calculating related data
The elevation of the beach surface is observed 1 time per month at each 2m measuring point in the range of 30m outside the sea pond dike feet in 2014 of 74K+100 (salt bin section) and 78k+050 (seedling bed temple section) by a field observation method. The lowest value of the range of 30m in front of the dike is counted for each measurement time (which means the topography observation time before a certain pond).
Collecting daily average flow Q (m 3/s) of a Qian pond river mouth upstream Fuchun river power station 2014, further calculating the average flow Q 6 of the upstream month of the river mouth 6 months before the measurement according to a formula (1), wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
(1)
Wherein Q i is the average flow of the upstream month of the estuary of the previous i months, which refers to the average value of the average daily flow in the previous i months, and n is the total number of days of the previous i months. The maximum average daily flow Q m between the measurements (referring to the site observation time interval of the topography before the two adjacent ponds) is further calculated, and the unit is m 3/s.
Collecting time-by-time tide level data L (m) from a salt officer station 2014 of a long-term tide station close to a sea pond, extracting a high tide level L H and a low tide level L L of a day of a measured time in time-by-time tide level data, gradually calculating a rising tide difference H Expansion and a falling tide difference H Falling down according to a formula (2) and a formula (3), and further obtaining a maximum tide difference H m between the measured times according to a formula (4), wherein the unit is m;
(2)
(3)
(4)
further calculating an average low tide level Y L between the measurements according to the formula (5), wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
(5)
Wherein Y L is the average value of the next-time moisture-level-by-moisture low tide level L L, and the unit is m; n is the total number of the moisture-free low tide levels among the measurements.
Step two, judging Hong Chao power conditions of the embankment foot scouring
And (3) judging Hong Chao power conditions of the embankment foot scouring: and (3) calculating the flushing depth of the plum flood season of 4 to 7 months and the flushing depth of the autumn climax of 7 to 11 months in each year by statistics through the lowest elevation of the first month obtained in the step one, and judging Hong Chao power of the embankment foot flushing according to the flushing depth of the plum flood season and the flushing depth of the autumn climax.
Calculating the flushing amplitude d Plum blossom of the plum flood season of 4 to 7 months in each year by year according to a formula (6) and the flushing depth d Tide of the big tide of the autumn of 7 to 11 months in each year by year according to a formula (7) through the lowest elevation S L (m) of the first month;
(6)
(7)
Wherein S L4、SL7、SL11 is the lowest elevation (m) in the range of 30m before the dykes of 4 months, 7 months and 11 months respectively.
Figure 2 shows that 78k+050 (cross section of the seedling bed temple) has a depth of Hong Chao washings in the range of 30m outside the dike foot, the cross section has a number d Plum blossom of greater than d Tide , and the maximum downflow rate of the Fuchunjiang power station 14900m per second is the maximum downflow rate occurring from the 12 month power station water storage in 1968 in 2017, 24 to 27 days of a typical flood year in 2017, 6 months. The flushing depth of the plum flood season in 2017 is more than 2 times of the flushing depth of the big tide in autumn, which is 0.83 m. And judging that the section is mainly flushed by flood and the flushing by tidal water is an auxiliary pond section.
Fig. 3 shows that the depth of the annual Hong Chao scour in the range of 30m outside the 74k+100 (salt silo section) dike feet is greater than d Plum blossom for each year d Tide and is much greater than 2 times the depth of the plum flood season scour by 1.17m for the autumn climax of 2017 typical flood year. And judging that the section is a pond section with main tidal water flushing and auxiliary flood water flushing.
Step three, building a embankment foot scouring prediction model with flood as main and tidal water as auxiliary pond sections
According to the analysis, the section 78k+050 of the temple is typical flood scour, the tidal water is counter dike sections, and fig. 4 is a multiple regression model constructed by four factors including the lowest elevation S 0 (m) within the range of 30m of the previous measurement, the average flow Q 6(m3/S of the upstream Fuchunjiang power station month of the river mouth of the last 6 months, the maximum average daily flow Q m(m3/S of the measurement time, and the maximum tidal range H m (m) of the salt official tide station of the measurement time according to the formula (8 a):
Where Q 6 and Q m represent mainly the flushing effect of the early flood and the last maximum flow, H m characterizes the re-flushing of tidal water after the inter-flood measurements. As can be seen from fig. 4 and fig. 5, the actual measurement value is substantially identical to the predicted value of the formula, and the correlation between the actual measurement value and the predicted value can reach 0.82, and the correlation between the actual measurement value and the predicted value is shown in fig. 5.
Step four, building a embankment foot scouring prediction model with tidal water as a main and flood as an auxiliary pond section
According to the analysis, 74K+100 (salt bin section) is typical tidal flush as the main and flood flush as the auxiliary river reach. FIG. 6 is a multiple regression model constructed from four factors, namely, the lowest elevation S 0 (m) within the range of 30m from the previous measurement, the average low tide level Y L (m) of the inter-measurement salt head station, the maximum daily average flow rate Q m(m3/S between measurements, and the maximum tide level H m (m) of the inter-measurement salt head station, according to equation (8 b):
The direct scouring of the flood to the dike section is smaller, mainly the main tank is firstly scoured, then the volume of the riverbed is increased, the low tide level is lowered, and the tidal range is increased to cause the scour of the dike feet. As can be seen from fig. 6 to fig. 7, the actual measurement value is substantially identical to the predicted value of the formula, and the correlation between the actual measurement value and the predicted value can reach 0.87, and the correlation between the actual measurement value and the predicted value is shown in fig. 7.
Step five, dyke foot scouring elevation prediction
According to the established dyke foot scouring elevation prediction model, when the correlation coefficient R between the actual measured value of the sample and the predicted value scatter point is more than or equal to 0.8, prediction calculation can be performed.
When the prediction is carried out, only the lowest elevation S 0 (m) within the range of 30m of the previous measurement is required to be given according to a prediction formula; the measurement statistical values such as the average flow Q 6(m3/s of the upstream Fuchunjing power station of the river mouth of the last 6 months, the maximum average flow Q m(m3/s of the Fuchunjing power station between the times, the maximum tide difference H m (m) of the near salt-official tide level station between the times, the average low tide level Y L (m) of the salt-official tide level station between the times and the like can be rapidly predicted and calculated, and the lowest elevation within the range of the embankment foot 30m can be rapidly predicted and calculated.
According to the scheme, the quantitative relation of the embankment scouring elevation prediction is established under the two conditions of flood mainly, tidal range mainly and tidal range mainly, and flood mainly and flood secondarily, when the embankment scouring elevation prediction method is used for prediction, the change of the embankment scouring elevation can be rapidly predicted only according to the measurement statistical values of the previous measured elevation, the average flow of the previous 6 months, the maximum daily average flow among the measured times, the maximum tidal range among the measured times, the average low tide among the measured times and the like, and the method has remarkable simplicity. The method fully considers the difference of the erosion and deposition changes, so that the prediction model is more perfect, the erosion elevation of the embankment foot is deduced according to the difference, and the prediction accuracy of the erosion of the embankment foot of the strong tidal bore under the common action of Hong Chao is effectively improved.
Example 2:
The invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, in which a computer program executable by a processor is stored, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, at least one step of the method for predicting the washout elevation of the foot of the ancient sea pond under the combined action of the strong tidal current section Hong Chao is operated, and the same technical effect can be achieved, so that repetition is avoided, and the embodiment is not repeated.
Example 3:
A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, a communication interface, and a communication bus; the memory, the processor and the communication interface communicate with each other through the communication bus; the memory is used for storing a computer program; the processor is configured to execute the computer program stored in the memory, and when the processor executes the computer program, at least one step in the method for predicting the wash elevation of the dike foot of the ancient sea pond under the combined action of the strong tidal current segment Hong Chao is implemented, and the same technical effect can be achieved, so that repetition is avoided, and in this embodiment, no redundant description is provided.
Computer-readable media include both permanent and non-permanent, removable and non-removable media, and information storage may be implemented by any method or technology. The information may be computer readable instructions, data structures, modules of a program, or other data. Examples of storage media for a computer include, but are not limited to, phase change memory (PR AM), static Random Access Memory (SRAM), dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), other types of Random Access Memory (RAM), read Only Memory (ROM), electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory technology, compact disc read only memory (CD-ROM), digital Versatile Disks (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic cassettes, magnetic tape magnetic disk storage or other magnetic storage devices, or any other non-transmission medium, which can be used to store information that can be accessed by a computing device. Computer-readable media, as defined herein, does not include transitory computer-readable media (transmission media), such as modulated data signals and carrier waves.
The conventional technology in the above embodiments is known to those skilled in the art, and thus is not described in detail herein.
The specific embodiments described herein are offered by way of example only to illustrate the spirit of the invention. Various modifications or additions to the described embodiments may be made by those skilled in the art to which the invention pertains or may be substituted in a similar manner without departing from the spirit of the invention or beyond the scope of the appended claims.
While the invention has been described in detail and with reference to specific embodiments thereof, it will be apparent to one skilled in the art that various changes and modifications can be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope thereof.
While the above detailed description has shown, described, and pointed out novel features as applied to various embodiments, it will be understood that various omissions, substitutions, and changes in the form and details of the device or method illustrated may be made without departing from the spirit of the disclosure. In addition, the various features and methods described above may be used independently of one another, or may be combined in various ways. All possible combinations and subcombinations are intended to fall within the scope of this disclosure. Many of the embodiments described above include similar components, and thus, these similar components are interchangeable in different embodiments. While the invention has been disclosed in the context of certain embodiments and examples, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that the invention extends beyond the specifically disclosed embodiments to other alternative embodiments and/or uses and obvious modifications and equivalents thereof. Therefore, the present invention is not intended to be limited by the specific disclosure of the preferred embodiments herein.
The invention is a well-known technique.
Claims (6)
1. The method for predicting the washout elevation of the dike feet of the ancient sea under the combined action of the strong tidal current river Hong Chao is characterized by comprising the following steps:
Step one, acquiring and calculating related data: acquiring the lowest elevation of the first time in the range of 30m in front of the dike, and calculating to acquire the average daily flow of the estuary upstream in the observation period of the topography in front of the pond in the past i months and the maximum average daily flow between the measurements; acquiring time-by-time tide level data of a sea pond close to a long-term tide station, and calculating to obtain a flood tide level difference, a falling tide level difference, a maximum tide difference between measuring times and an average low tide level between measuring times;
Judging Hong Chao power conditions of the embankment foot scouring: calculating the flushing depth of the plum flood season in 4 to 7 months and the flushing depth of the autumn climax in 7 to 11 months in each year by statistics through the lowest elevation of the first time per month obtained in the first step, and judging Hong Chao power of the embankment foot flushing according to the flushing depth of the plum flood season and the flushing depth of the autumn climax, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps:
The lowest elevation S L of the first time of the month is obtained in the first step, the flushing amplitude d Plum blossom of the plum flood season of 4 to 7 months in each year is calculated by statistics according to a formula (6) year by year, the flushing depth d Tide of the big tide of the autumn of 7 to 11 months in each year is calculated by statistics according to a formula (7) year by year,
(6)
(7)
Wherein, S L4、SL7、SL11 is the lowest elevation of the range of 30m before the dike of 4 months, 7 months and 11 months respectively;
The establishment of the discrimination conditions is as follows:
if d Plum blossom is greater than d Tide and d Plum blossom of the year of the typical flood event is greater than 2 times of d Tide , judging that the flood is main and the tidal water is auxiliary pond section;
If d Plum blossom is smaller than d Tide and d Tide of the year of the typical flood event is more than 2 times of d Plum blossom , determining that the tide is the main and the flood is the auxiliary pond section;
Step three, building a embankment foot scouring elevation prediction model with flood as a main and tidal water as an auxiliary pond section: if the scouring power in the second step is judged to be that flood is main and tidal water is auxiliary, constructing a dyke foot scouring prediction formula (8 a):
(8a)
Wherein S is a scouring elevation; s 0 is the lowest elevation in the range of 30m of the previous measurement; q 6 is the average flow of the upstream month of the estuary of the last 6 months; q m is the maximum average daily flow rate between the measured times; h m is the maximum tide difference between the next adjacent tide level stations; a. b, c, d are all coefficients: a takes a value of 0.3 to 0.7; b takes a value of 0.0003-0.002; c takes a value of 0.01 to 0.12; d takes a value of 0.12 to 0.25; e is a constant term, and the value is 2.0-4.5;
Step four, building a embankment foot scouring elevation prediction model with tidal water as a main and flood as an auxiliary pond section: as an alternative to the third step, if the second step determines that tidal water flushing is the main and flood flushing is the auxiliary river reach, constructing a dyke foot flushing prediction formula (8 b):
(8b)
Wherein S is a scouring elevation; s 0 is the lowest elevation in the range of 30m of the previous measurement; y L is the average low tide level of the next adjacent tide level stations between the measurements; q m is the maximum average daily flow rate between the measured times; h m is the maximum tide difference between the next adjacent tide level stations; a. b, c, d are all coefficients: a takes a value of 0.05 to 0.9; b takes the value of-0.06 to 0.7; c takes the value of-0.02 to 0.08; d takes a value of 0.10 to 0.35; e is a constant term, and the value is-3.0 to 2.0; and predicting the scouring elevation according to the prediction model.
2. The method for predicting the washout elevation of the dike feet of the ancient sea under the combined action of the strong tidal current river reach Hong Chao, which is characterized in that:
In the first step, the step of calculating and obtaining the average daily flow rate and the maximum average daily flow rate between the last i months of the upstream of the estuary in the pre-pond topography observation period specifically comprises the following steps:
the daily average flow q of the upstream runoff station of the estuary in the pre-pond topography observation period is collected, the average flow Qi of the upstream month of the estuary in the i months before the measurement is further calculated according to a formula (1), and the calculation formula is as follows:
(1)
Wherein Q i is the average flow of upstream river mouth of the previous i months, and the unit is m 3/s, which refers to the average value of daily average flow in the previous i months; n is the total number of days of the first i months;
The maximum average daily flow Q m between the measuring intervals is calculated and obtained, and the unit is m 3/s.
3. The method for predicting the washout elevation of the foot of the ancient sea pond under the combined action of the strong tidal current river reach Hong Chao according to claim 1 or 2, which is characterized in that:
In the first step, the step of calculating and obtaining the flood tide difference, the falling tide difference, the maximum tide difference between the measuring times and the average low tide level between the measuring times specifically comprises the following steps:
Collecting time-by-time tide level data L of a sea pond close to a long-term tide station, extracting a high tide level L H and a low tide level L L of the current month of measurement from the time-by-time tide level data, gradually calculating a rising tide level H R and a falling tide level H F according to a formula (2) and a formula (3), and further obtaining a maximum tide level H m between the measurements according to a formula (4), wherein the units are m;
(2)
(3)
(4)
further calculating an average low tide level Y L between the measurements according to the formula (5), wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
(5)
Wherein Y L is the average value of the moisture-by-moisture low tide level L L between the measurements, and the unit is m; j is the total number of the moisture-free low tide levels among the measurements.
4. The method for predicting the washout elevation of the foot of the ancient sea pond under the combined action of the strong tidal current river reach Hong Chao according to claim 1 or 2, which is characterized in that:
And in the third step and the fourth step, when coefficients calculated by a specific formula of the embankment foot scouring elevation prediction model are selected, carrying out prediction calculation by calibrating the coefficients for a plurality of times, and when the correlation coefficient R between the actual measured value of the sample and the scattered point of the predicted value is obviously greater than or equal to 0.8.
5. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, a communication interface, and a communication bus; the memory, the processor and the communication interface communicate with each other through the communication bus; the memory is used for storing a computer program; the processor is configured to execute a computer program stored on the memory, and is characterized in that: when the processor executes the computer program, at least one step of the method for predicting the foot flushing elevation of the ancient sea pond under the combined action of the strong tidal current river reach Hong Chao is realized.
6. A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, characterized by: when the computer program is executed by a processor, at least one step of the method for predicting the foot flushing elevation of the ancient sea pond under the combined action of the strong tidal current river segments Hong Chao is realized.
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