CN117575100A - Comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method - Google Patents
Comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method, which comprises the steps of defining a comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index, measuring power distribution network data and establishing a time sequence, carrying out normalization processing on the data, calculating a normalization predicted value of the power distribution network data at the next moment, calculating a comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index predicted value at the next moment, and optimizing the comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity. According to the method, the carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy source is defined, and the accuracy of the predicted value is improved; carrying out normalization processing on the measured data, calculating a normalization predicted value, and improving the accuracy of the carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction of the power distribution network based on comprehensive energy; according to the predicted carbon emission reduction capacity index, the carbon emission reduction capacity can be optimized, and the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network based on comprehensive energy sources is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction, in particular to a comprehensive energy power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction method.
Background
The power distribution network is characterized in that one part of the power required by the power distribution network is derived from a superior power grid, the other part of the power required by the power distribution network is derived from new energy in the power distribution network for power generation, and the power source provided by the superior power grid is mainly coal-fired units for power generation, so that the power distribution network is powered by the power provided by the superior power grid to generate a certain amount of carbon emission, the power distribution network based on comprehensive energy can utilize energy conversion and storage capacities of electric heating equipment, electric gas production equipment, a power storage device, a heat storage device and a gas storage device, the proportion of the new energy in the power distribution network to the total power generation is improved, the power generation capacity occupies the total power generation capacity, and the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network is improved while the comprehensive energy load energy supply requirement is ensured. However, as the coupling relation of multiple kinds of energy sources in the power distribution network is more and more complex, and the supply, conversion and storage equipment of the multiple kinds of energy sources have nonlinear characteristics, the electric, thermal and gas load demands and the new energy source power generation are not matched in time, so that the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy sources is reduced, the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy sources cannot be predicted, and the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy sources cannot be mastered.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method, which aims to solve the technical problem that the comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity cannot be predicted in the prior art.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for achieving the purpose is as follows: a comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method comprises the following steps:
s1: defining a carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on comprehensive energy;
s2: establishing a power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index time sequence of the comprehensive energy according to the measured power distribution network data;
s3: normalizing the power distribution network data measured in the step S2 to obtain a normalized value of the power distribution network data;
s4: calculating a normalized predicted value of the power distribution network data at the next moment in the future;
s5: calculating a predicted value of the carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy at the next moment in the future;
s6: and optimizing the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy according to the obtained index prediction value of the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy.
Preferably, in step S1, the expression of the carbon emission reduction capability index of the power distribution network based on comprehensive energy is:
wherein:representing t i Carbon emission reduction ability index at time, n is a natural number, and represents the number of times at a fixed time interval, t i For the i-th moment, i is a natural number, i= {1, 2..once., n }, i =>Representing t i Electric load power P of power distribution network obtained by time measurement E,max Maximum value of the electrical load power of the distribution network at a time of n fixed time intervals +.>Representing t i Power distribution network thermal load power obtained by time measurement, P H,max Representing the maximum value of the thermal load power of the distribution network at the moment of n fixed time intervals,representing t i Gas load power, P of power distribution network obtained by time measurement G,max Representing n fixed time intervalsMaximum value of gas load power of power distribution network at moment +.>Representing t i The total power of the connecting line between the power distribution network and the upper power network is measured at the moment,representing t i Wind power supply output of power distribution network connected by time measurement, < ->Representing t i And measuring the output of the photovoltaic power supply connected to the power distribution network at any time.
Preferably, step S2 is specifically: at t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Measuring the time of the n fixed time intervals to obtain the electric power of the electric heating equipment connected to the power distribution networkPower consumption of electric gas making equipment connected to power distribution networkEnergy state of charge of an electrical energy storage device connected to an electrical distribution network>Energy state of charge of heat storage device connected with power distribution networkThe state of charge of a gas storage device connected to the distribution network>Wind power supply output of power distribution network access>Photovoltaic power supply output of power distribution network access +.>Total power of tie line between distribution network and upper level network ∈>And establishing a time sequence, wherein the expression is as follows:
preferably, the normalization processing expression in step S3 is:
wherein:representing t i Normalized values of the measured values of the electric power of the electric heating equipment connected to the power distribution network at the moment,representing t i Measuring the time to obtain the power consumption of the electric heating equipment connected to the power distribution network, and P EB,max And P EB,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of the electrical power of the electrical heating devices connected to the power distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals, +.>Representing t i Normalized value of the measured value of the electrical power of the electrical system connected to the power distribution network at the moment, +.>Representing t i Measuring the time to obtain the power consumption of the electric gas making equipment connected to the power distribution network, P PTG,max And P PTG,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of the measured electrical power of the electrical system connected to the power distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals, < >>Representing t i Normalized value of state of charge measurement value of power storage device connected to power distribution network at moment>Representing t i The state of charge of a power storage device connected to the power distribution network is measured at moment, S EST,max And S is EST,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of state of charge measurements of the power storage devices connected to the power distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals, +.>Representing t i Normalized value of state of charge measurement value of heat storage device connected to power distribution network at moment>Representing t i The state of charge of the heat storage device connected to the power distribution network is measured at moment, S HST,max And S is HST,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of state of charge measurements of a heat storage device connected to the power distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals, +.>Representing t i Normalized value of state of charge measurement value of gas storage device connected to power distribution network at moment>Representing t i Measuring moment to obtain charge energy of gas storage device connected to power distribution networkState, S GST,max And S is GST,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of the state of charge measurements of the gas storage devices connected to the distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals,/->Representing t i Normalized value of wind power supply output measured value accessed by power distribution network at moment, < >>Representing t i Measuring the moment to obtain the output of a wind power supply connected to the power distribution network, and P WP,max And P WP,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values,/for the measured values of the output of the wind power supply connected to the distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals>Representing t i Normalized value of photovoltaic power output measured value accessed by power distribution network at moment, < >>Representing t i The output of a photovoltaic power supply connected to the power distribution network is measured at moment, and P PV,max And P PV,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of the photovoltaic power output measurement values of the power distribution network connected in the moments of the n fixed time intervals, < >>Representing t i Normalized value of total power measurement value of tie line between time distribution network and upper power network, +.>Representing t i Measuring the moment to obtain the total power of the connecting line between the power distribution network and the upper power grid, and P LL,max And P LL,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n The maximum and minimum of the total power measurements of the tie-lines between the distribution network and the upper grid at the time of these n fixed time intervals.
Preferably, step S4 is specifically: calculating a power utilization power normalization predicted value of electric heating equipment connected to a power distribution network at the next moment in the futurePower consumption normalized predictive value of electric gas-making equipment connected to power distribution network>Normalized predictive value of state of charge of an electrical energy storage device connected to an electrical power distribution network>Energy state of charge normalized predictive value of heat storage device connected with power distribution network>Energy-of-charge state normalization predictive value of gas storage device connected to power distribution network>Wind power supply output normalized predicted value of power distribution network access +.>Photovoltaic power supply output normalized predicted value of power distribution network>Total power normalized predictive value of tie line between power distribution network and upper power network +.>The computational expression is:
wherein:respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n Normalized value of power consumption of electric heating equipment connected to power distribution network at moment +.>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n Normalized value of the power consumption of the electrical system connected to the power distribution network at the moment, < >>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n Normalized value of state of charge of power storage device accessed by power distribution network at moment +.>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n Energy state normalization value of heat storage device connected to power distribution network at moment, < >>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n The normalized value of the state of charge of the gas storage device accessed by the power distribution network at moment +.>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n Wind power supply output normalization value of power distribution network access at moment, < >>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n Photovoltaic power supply output normalization value accessed by power distribution network at moment, < >>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n And normalizing the total power of the connecting line between the power distribution network and the upper power grid at the moment.
Preferably, in step S5, the expression of the carbon emission reduction capability index of the power distribution network based on comprehensive energy is:
wherein:and the predicted value of the carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy at the next moment is shown.
Preferably, the optimization in step S6 is specifically: if the predicted value of the carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy is greater than or equal to 0.71, the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network is considered to be stronger at the next moment, the power output of a new energy power supply, the power consumption of an electric heating device, the power consumption of an electric storage device, the power consumption state of an electric storage device, and the power consumption state of the electric storage device in the power distribution network are to be improved, if the predicted value of the carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy is less than 0.71 and greater than or equal to 0.43, the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network is considered to be moderate, and the power output of the new energy power supply, the power consumption of the electric heating device, the power consumption state of the electric storage device, and the power storage device in the power distribution network are to be reduced.
The comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method has the beneficial effects that the comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method is provided, and the blank in the field of comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction in the prior art is made up; defining a carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on comprehensive energy, and improving the accuracy of a predicted value; carrying out normalization processing on the measured data, calculating a normalization predicted value, and improving the accuracy of the carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction of the power distribution network based on comprehensive energy; according to the predicted carbon emission reduction capacity index, the carbon emission reduction capacity can be optimized, and the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network based on comprehensive energy sources is improved.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method.
Detailed Description
The invention discloses a comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method, which is shown in fig. 1 and specifically comprises the following steps:
s1: defining a carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on comprehensive energy;
the carbon emission reduction capacity index expression of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy is as follows:
wherein:representing t i Carbon emission reduction ability index at time, n is a natural number, and represents the number of times at a fixed time interval, t i For the i-th moment, i is a natural number, i= {1, 2..once., n }, i =>Representing t i Electric load power P of power distribution network obtained by time measurement E,max Maximum value of the electrical load power of the distribution network at a time of n fixed time intervals +.>Representing t i Power distribution network thermal load power obtained by time measurement, P H,max Representing the maximum value of the thermal load power of the distribution network at the moment of n fixed time intervals,representing t i Gas load power, P of power distribution network obtained by time measurement G,max Maximum value of the gas load power of the distribution network at n fixed time intervals +.>Representing t i The total power of the connecting line between the power distribution network and the upper power network is measured at the moment,representing t i Wind power supply output of power distribution network connected by time measurement, < ->Representing t i The output of a photovoltaic power supply connected to the power distribution network is measured at any time;
s2: and measuring power distribution network data by using a data acquisition device, and establishing a power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index time sequence of the comprehensive energy according to the measured power distribution network data: at t 1 ,t 2 ,t 3 ,t 4 ,t 5 ,t 6 ,t 7 ,t 8 The power consumption of the electric heating equipment connected with the power distribution network is obtained by measuring the time of 8 fixed time intervalsPower consumption of electric gas making equipment connected to power distribution networkEnergy state of charge of an electrical energy storage device connected to an electrical distribution network>Heat storage device connected to power distribution networkState of charge of (2)The state of charge of a gas storage device connected to the distribution network>Wind power supply output of power distribution network access>Photovoltaic power supply output of power distribution network access +.>Total power of tie line between distribution network and upper level network ∈>And establishing a time sequence, wherein the expression is as follows:
s3: normalizing the power distribution network data measured in the step S2 to obtain normalized values of the power distribution network data: the expression of normalization processing is:
wherein:representing t i Normalized value of the measured value of the electrical power of the electrical heating device connected to the power distribution network at the moment, +.>Representing t i Measuring the time to obtain the power consumption of the electric heating equipment connected to the power distribution network, and P EB,max And P EB,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of the electrical power of the electrical heating devices connected to the power distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals, +.>Representing t i Normalized value of the measured value of the electrical power of the electrical system connected to the power distribution network at the moment, +.>Representing t i Measuring the time to obtain the power consumption of the electric gas making equipment connected to the power distribution network, P PTG,max And P PTG,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of the measured electrical power of the electrical system connected to the power distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals, < >>Representing t i Normalized value of state of charge measurement value of power storage device connected to power distribution network at moment>Representing t i The state of charge of a power storage device connected to the power distribution network is measured at moment, S EST,max And S is EST,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of state of charge measurements of the power storage devices connected to the power distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals, +.>Representing t i Normalized value of state of charge measurement value of heat storage device connected to power distribution network at moment>Representing t i The state of charge of the heat storage device connected to the power distribution network is measured at moment, S HST,max And S is HST,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of state of charge measurements of a heat storage device connected to the power distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals, +.>Representing t i Normalized value of state of charge measurement value of gas storage device connected to power distribution network at moment>Representing t i The state of charge of a gas storage device connected to the power distribution network is measured at moment, S GST,max And S is GST,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of the state of charge measurements of the gas storage devices connected to the distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals,/->Representing t i Normalized value of wind power supply output measured value accessed by power distribution network at moment, < >>Representing t i Measuring the moment to obtain the output of a wind power supply connected to the power distribution network, and P WP,max And P WP,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values,/for the measured values of the output of the wind power supply connected to the distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals>Representing t i Normalized value of photovoltaic power output measured value accessed by power distribution network at moment, < >>Representing t i The output of a photovoltaic power supply connected to the power distribution network is measured at moment, and P PV,max And P PV,min Respectively are provided withRepresenting t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of the photovoltaic power output measurement values of the power distribution network connected in the moments of the n fixed time intervals, < >>Representing t i Normalized value of total power measurement value of tie line between time distribution network and upper power network, +.>Representing t i Measuring the moment to obtain the total power of the connecting line between the power distribution network and the upper power grid, and P LL,max And P LL,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of total power measurement of the tie line between the distribution network and the upper grid in the moments of these n fixed time intervals
Obtaining t through normalization processing 1 ,t 2 ,t 3 ,t 4 ,t 5 ,t 6 ,t 7 ,t 8 Normalized values of the distribution network data at the moments of these 8 fixed time intervals:
s4: calculating t 9 Normalized predicted value of power distribution network data at moment: calculating t 9 Power consumption normalized predicted value of electric heating equipment connected to power distribution network at momentPower consumption normalized predictive value of electric gas-making equipment connected to power distribution network>Normalized predictive value of state of charge of an electrical energy storage device connected to an electrical power distribution network>Energy state of charge normalized predictive value of heat storage device connected with power distribution network>Energy-state-of-charge normalized prediction value of gas storage device connected to power distribution networkWind power supply output normalized predicted value of power distribution network access +.>Photovoltaic power supply output normalized predicted value of power distribution network>Total power normalized predictive value of tie line between power distribution network and upper power network +.>The computational expression is:
s5: calculating t 9 Power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index predicted value based on comprehensive energy at momentThe carbon emission reduction capacity index expression of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy is as follows:
s6: optimizing the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy according to the obtained index prediction value of the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy: if t is obtained 9 The predicted value of the carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy at the moment is more than or equal to 0.71, and then the power distribution network is considered to be at the next momentThe carbon emission reduction capability of the power distribution network is strong, the output of a new energy power supply, the electric power of electric heating equipment, the electric power of electric gas making equipment, the state of charge of a power storage device, the state of charge of the heat storage device and the state of charge of the gas storage device in the power distribution network are improved, and if t 9 The predicted value of the carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy is smaller than 0.71 and larger than or equal to 0.43, the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network is considered to be moderate, the output of a new energy power supply, the electric power of electric heating equipment, the electric power of electric gas making equipment, the state of charge of a power storage device, the state of charge of the power storage device and the state of charge of the power storage device in the power distribution network can be kept unchanged, and if t 9 And when the predicted value of the carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy is smaller than 0.43, the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network is considered to be weak, and the power output of a new energy source, the power consumption of electric heating equipment, the power consumption of electric gas making equipment, the state of charge of a power storage device, the state of charge of the power storage device and the state of charge of the power storage device in the power distribution network are reduced.
The present invention has been described in terms of embodiments, and it will be appreciated by those of skill in the art that various changes can be made to the features and embodiments, or equivalents can be substituted, without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. In addition, many modifications may be made to adapt a particular situation or material to the teachings of the invention without departing from the essential scope thereof. Therefore, it is intended that the invention not be limited to the particular embodiment disclosed, but that the invention will include all embodiments falling within the scope of the appended claims.
Claims (7)
1. The comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1: defining a carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on comprehensive energy;
s2: establishing a power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index time sequence of the comprehensive energy according to the measured power distribution network data;
s3: normalizing the power distribution network data measured in the step S2 to obtain a normalized value of the power distribution network data;
s4: calculating a normalized predicted value of the power distribution network data at the next moment in the future;
s5: calculating a predicted value of the carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy at the next moment in the future;
s6: and optimizing the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy according to the obtained index prediction value of the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy.
2. The comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method according to claim 1, wherein the comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index expression in step S1 is:
wherein:representing t i Carbon emission reduction ability index at time, n is a natural number, and represents the number of times at a fixed time interval, t i For the i-th moment, i is a natural number, i= {1, 2..once., n }, i =>Representing t i Electric load power P of power distribution network obtained by time measurement E,max Maximum value of the electrical load power of the distribution network at a time of n fixed time intervals +.>Representing t i Power distribution network thermal load power obtained by time measurement, P H,max Maximum value of the thermal load power of the distribution network at a time of n fixed time intervals +.>Representing t i Gas load power, P of power distribution network obtained by time measurement G,max Maximum value of the gas load power of the distribution network at n fixed time intervals +.>Representing t i Total power of connecting lines between power distribution network and upper power network measured at moment, < >>Representing t i Wind power supply output of power distribution network connected by time measurement, < ->Representing t i And measuring the output of the photovoltaic power supply connected to the power distribution network at any time.
3. The comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method according to claim 2, wherein the step S2 is specifically: at t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Measuring the time of the n fixed time intervals to obtain the electric power of the electric heating equipment connected to the power distribution networkPower consumption of electric gas making equipment connected to power distribution networkEnergy state of charge of an electrical energy storage device connected to an electrical distribution network>Energy state of charge of heat storage device connected with power distribution networkLoad of gas storage device connected to power distribution networkEnergy status->Wind power supply output of power distribution network access>Photovoltaic power supply output of power distribution network access +.>Total power of tie line between distribution network and upper level network ∈>And establishing a time sequence, wherein the expression is as follows:
4. the comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method according to claim 3, wherein the normalization processing expression in the step S3 is as follows:
wherein:representing t i Normalized value of the measured value of the electrical power of the electrical heating device connected to the power distribution network at the moment, +.>Representing t i Measuring the time to obtain the power consumption of the electric heating equipment connected to the power distribution network, and P EB,max And P EB,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of the electrical power of the electrical heating devices connected to the power distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals, +.>Representing t i Normalized value of the measured value of the electrical power of the electrical system connected to the power distribution network at the moment, +.>Representing t i Measuring the time to obtain the power consumption of the electric gas making equipment connected to the power distribution network, P PTG,max And P PTG,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of the measured electrical power of the electrical system connected to the power distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals, < >>Representing t i Normalized value of state of charge measurement value of power storage device connected to power distribution network at moment>Representing t i The state of charge of a power storage device connected to the power distribution network is measured at moment, S EST,max And S is EST,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of state of charge measurements of the power storage devices connected to the power distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals, +.>Representing t i Normalized value of state of charge measurement value of heat storage device connected to power distribution network at moment>Representing t i Time of day measurementObtaining the charge energy state of a heat storage device connected with the power distribution network, S HST,max And S is HST,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of state of charge measurements of a heat storage device connected to the power distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals, +.>Representing t i Normalized value of state of charge measurement value of gas storage device connected to power distribution network at moment>Representing t i The state of charge of a gas storage device connected to the power distribution network is measured at moment, S GST,max And S is GST,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of the state of charge measurements of the gas storage devices connected to the distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals,/->Representing t i Normalized value of wind power supply output measured value accessed by power distribution network at moment, < >>Representing t i Measuring the moment to obtain the output of a wind power supply connected to the power distribution network, and P WP,max And P WP,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values,/for the measured values of the output of the wind power supply connected to the distribution network at the times of the n fixed time intervals>Representing t i Normalized value of photovoltaic power output measured value accessed by power distribution network at moment, < >>Representing t i The output of a photovoltaic power supply connected to the power distribution network is measured at moment, and P PV,max And P PV,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n Maximum and minimum values of the photovoltaic power output measurement values of the power distribution network connected in the moments of the n fixed time intervals, < >>Representing t i Normalized value of total power measurement value of tie line between time distribution network and upper power network, +.>Representing t i Measuring the moment to obtain the total power of the connecting line between the power distribution network and the upper power grid, and P LL,max And P LL,min Respectively represent t 1 ,t 2 ,...t i ,...,t n The maximum and minimum of the total power measurements of the tie-lines between the distribution network and the upper grid at the time of these n fixed time intervals.
5. The comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method according to claim 4, wherein the step S4 is specifically: calculating a power utilization power normalization predicted value of electric heating equipment connected to a power distribution network at the next moment in the futurePower consumption normalized predictive value of electric gas-making equipment connected to power distribution network>Normalized predictive value of state of charge of an electrical energy storage device connected to an electrical power distribution network>Energy state of charge of heat storage device connected with power distribution networkNormalized predictive value->Energy-of-charge state normalization predictive value of gas storage device connected to power distribution network>Wind power supply output normalized predicted value of power distribution network access +.>Photovoltaic power supply output normalized predicted value accessed by power distribution networkTotal power normalized predictive value of tie line between power distribution network and upper power network +.>The computational expression is:
wherein:respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n Normalized value of power consumption of electric heating equipment connected to power distribution network at moment +.>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n Normalized value of the power consumption of the electrical system connected to the power distribution network at the moment, < >>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n Normalized value of state of charge of power storage device accessed by power distribution network at moment +.>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n Energy state normalization value of heat storage device connected to power distribution network at moment, < >>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n The normalized value of the state of charge of the gas storage device accessed by the power distribution network at moment +.>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n Wind power supply output normalization value of power distribution network access at moment, < >>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n Photovoltaic power supply output normalization value accessed by power distribution network at moment, < >>Respectively represent t 1 、t i 、t n And normalizing the total power of the connecting line between the power distribution network and the upper power grid at the moment.
6. The comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method according to claim 5, wherein the expression for calculating the comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction value at the next moment in step S5 is as follows:
wherein:and the predicted value of the carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy at the next moment is shown.
7. The comprehensive energy-based power distribution network carbon emission reduction capacity index prediction and optimization method according to claim 5, wherein the optimization in step S6 is specifically: if the predicted value of the carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy is greater than or equal to 0.71, the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network is considered to be stronger at the next moment, the power output of a new energy power supply, the power consumption of an electric heating device, the power consumption of an electric storage device, the power consumption state of an electric storage device, and the power consumption state of the electric storage device in the power distribution network are to be improved, if the predicted value of the carbon emission reduction capacity index of the power distribution network based on the comprehensive energy is less than 0.71 and greater than or equal to 0.43, the carbon emission reduction capacity of the power distribution network is considered to be moderate, and the power output of the new energy power supply, the power consumption of the electric heating device, the power consumption state of the electric storage device, and the power storage device in the power distribution network are to be reduced.
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