CN117477638B - Future water, light and wind multifunctional complementary capacity expansion model with river basin scale and climate scale - Google Patents
Future water, light and wind multifunctional complementary capacity expansion model with river basin scale and climate scale Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a future water, light and wind multifunctional complementary capacity expansion model with a river basin scale and a climate scale, which is formed by a target functional maxf 1 Target functional minf 2 The two water source supply constraint conditions, the electric quantity output constraint condition and the electric quantity balance constraint condition are jointly formed, and are expressed as follows:the invention can provide a new thought and a new way of theory and practice for adapting and coping with future climate change and formulating long-term planning and optimizing layout of the multi-energy complementary and capacity-expanding system from the aspects of macroscopic level and policy planning.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of new energy, in particular to a future water, light and wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion model with a river basin scale and a climate scale.
Background
The new energy is maximally eliminated, an optimal multi-energy complementary strategy is formulated according to the power generation output characteristics of the new energy, and the targets of carbon peak and carbon neutralization are realized, so that the novel power system is an important concept. The water, light and wind climate resources are clean energy sources with zero carbon, and under the novel power system concept, the high-quality development and utilization of the water, light and wind energy sources with zero carbon face new challenges and opportunities. At present, large-scale water-light-wind complementary mutually-used and bundled and sent out are one of important modes for promoting the high-quality development and utilization of water, light and wind climate resources. However, how to cope with the running risk induced by uncertainty of wind and light output and meet the stability of extra-high voltage direct current transmission power is a difficult problem of current multi-energy complementary scheduling research (Guo, etc., 2022). The water, light and wind power generation capacity is obviously influenced by weather conditions such as precipitation, radiation, air temperature and wind speed, and the like, and the artificial controllability is weaker, so that the development of a water-light-wind multifunctional complementary capacity expansion model (hereinafter referred to as a complementary capacity expansion model) is an important premise for solving the problem, and is an important way for realizing the maximization and the optimal development and utilization of water, light and wind zero carbon energy sources.
At present, research has been carried out to construct a water-light-wind multi-energy complementary scheduling model mainly from aspects of power scheduling, grid-connected safety, supply side demand, power generation cost and the like. For example, by taking the stability of the transmission power into consideration, the peak regulation performance of the system can be improved by 13.3-46% through optimizing a water-wind-solar-energy-storage complementary scheduling scheme established by the transmission power of a power system, a load distribution strategy and the like, so that the power discarding and load losing risks (Guo and the like, 2022) of the system are effectively reduced; the optimization model of the water-light-wind complementary peak regulation random before the day, which is established based on the wind and light power generation processing prediction error and aims at the minimum residual load peak-valley difference, can realize the optimization of the supply side requirement (Liu et al 2020); the multi-dimensional uncertainty of the water-light-wind complementary system is considered, and a random optimization water-light-wind complementary model which is established by taking the minimum residual load peak-valley difference as a target can improve the power dispatching efficiency (Zhu et al, 2020); the multi-energy complementary model built with the aim of lowest power generation cost can improve the overall power generation economic benefit (She Chang, etc., 2021); the multi-energy complementary model established by taking the minimum fluctuation of the water, light and wind power generation and the maximum wind and light power generation as targets improves the short-term power generation power (An et al, 2020); the power supply reliability of the multi-energy complementary system can be obviously improved under the condition that the increasing amplitude of the system operation cost is not large based on the multi-energy complementary scheduling model constructed by the coupling relation of the system power generation capacity and the standby capacity (Jiang Moxiao, 2020, etc.). However, the principle of the establishment of the water-light-wind multifunctional complementary scheduling model is to make a reasonable and reliable short-term power generation plan of a complementary system aiming at uncertainty of wind and light power generation output prediction so as to meet the requirement of short-term power scheduling. In other words, the existing water-light-wind complementary scheduling model focuses on maximizing the economic benefit of power generation on a short-term (hour, day) scale and a regional (power station) scale.
However, the weather (like) factors such as precipitation, wind speed, air temperature and radiation in the future are affected, and the weather resources of water, light and wind in the future are obviously changed, and obvious time and space differences exist. Therefore, on larger time scales (such as seasons and years, the invention is called as a 'climate scale') and space scales (such as thousands and tens of thousands of kilometers, the invention is called as a 'river basin scale'), the existing multi-energy complementary scheduling model on short-term and regional scales has the problem of time-space mismatch, and the macro policy planning in future water, light and wind localization and large-scale resource development and utilization is restricted. In order to adapt to and cope with possible influences of future climate change on large-scale development and utilization of water, light and wind climate resources, namely, reasonable and reliable long-term planning of a water-light-wind multifunctional complementary system is formulated from the macroscopic and planning policy formulation angle, and optimal layout and capacity expansion of water, light and wind resource development are realized, a model of water-light-wind multifunctional complementary and capacity expansion is needed to be constructed on climate scale and drainage basin scale.
The core problem of constructing a water-light-wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion model of a river basin scale and a climate scale under different climate situations in the future: firstly, the water source supply (resident water and ecological balance) of the river basin must be maintained except for the use of the water source in the future of the river basin for power generation, which means that the water source supply of the water source in the future of the river basin must be considered, and an model of water-light-wind multi-energy complementation is built; secondly, in order to slow down the climate change caused by carbon emission, the output force in the complementary and capacity expansion processes of the future water, light and wind power generation needs to be maximized and optimized on the premise of meeting the future water source supply of the river basin, so as to reduce the carbon emission of the thermal power. Which is a problem not considered and addressed by the existing water-light-wind multi-energy complementary scheduling model that focuses on short-term power generation plans.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing a future water, light and wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion model with a river basin scale and a climate scale.
In order to solve the problems, the invention discloses a water, light, wind and wind multifunctional in the future with a river basin scale and a climate scaleThe complementary dilatation model is characterized in that: the model is composed of a target functional maxf 1 Target functional minf 2 The two water source supply constraint conditions, the electric quantity output constraint condition and the electric quantity balance constraint condition are jointly formed, and are expressed as follows:
wherein:
maxf 1 ＝P w (t)+P f (t); wherein: p (P) w (t) the change of the total wind power output of a research area along with time in different climate change scenes in the future is shown in a unit kW; p (P) f (t) is the change of the total photoelectric output of a research area along with time under different climate change scenes in the future, and the unit kW;
wherein: p (P) c (t) the change of the sum of total waste electricity of water, light and wind in a research area along with time in different climate change scenes in the future is shown in a unit kW;
water supply constraint condition I: p (P) h (t)≥P h,his The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein: p (P) h (t) represents the change of the total hydropower output of a research area with time under different climate change scenes in the future, and the unit kW; p (P) h,his Total hydropower output in kW of a research area in a historical period is represented;
water supply constraint condition ii: r is R h (t)≥R h,his The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein: r is R h (t) represents the change of water resources of a research area with time under different climate change scenes in the future, and the unit is mm; r is R h,his Water resources in mm representing the study area in the historical period;
electric quantity output constraint conditions: [ P ] h (t)+P w (t)+P f (t)]≥P plan The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein: p (P) plan The annual and seasonal average value of the sum of the total output of water, light and wind in the area is researched for historical period, and the unit kW;
power balance constraint conditions: p (P) c (t)＝P plan -[P h (t)+P w (t)+P f (t)]。
The method for constructing the model comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the steps of researching the layout of the existing water, light and wind power bases in a research area, generating parameters of the water, light and wind power bases, and generating power by water, light and wind power in a historical period;
(2) Driving a WRF-Hydro mode by using observation data and mode data of different future climate change scenes of CMIP6, and calculating by the WRF-Hydro mode to obtain simulation results of surface runoffs, river basin areas, river water volume, water head height, low-layer wind speed, low-layer air temperature and short wave radiation under different future climate change scenes;
inputting the simulation results in the step (2) into calculation methods of hydroelectric power output, photoelectric power output and wind power output, and combining the existing water, light and wind base layout of the research area in the step to obtain the future hydroelectric power output value P of the research area h (t) photoelectric output value P f (t) wind power output value P w (t)；
Fourth, building a target functional maxf 1 Target functional minf 2 The water source supply constraint condition, the electric quantity output constraint condition and the electric power balance constraint condition are adopted, so that a water-light-wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion model is obtained;
and (5) a robust optimization algorithm based on the uncertain optimization problem of research, namely, a CPLEX solver (IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimization Studio) is used for solving a water-light-wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion model to obtain an optimal solution of water-light-wind power generation output of a research area in time under different climate change situations in the future, and a future water-light-wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion scheme is obtained according to the following conditions:
if the optimal solution of the complementary capacity expansion model is less than P in a future period of time plan Calculating the spatial distribution of water, light and wind power generation in the research area based on the step (2), and carrying out capacity expansion and optimization layout on the existing water, light and wind base by combining the geographic information of different areas of the research area and the risks of future climate disasters;
if the complementary expansion model is optimalSolving for a time period greater than P in the future plan And (3) calculating the spatial distribution of water, light and wind power generation in the research area based on the step (2), and formulating an energy storage or outward transmission scheme of the total amount of water, light and wind power generation in the time interval.
If the optimal solution of the complementary capacity expansion model is equal to P in a future period plan Indicating that the existing water, light and wind layout meets the future requirements.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages:
1. according to the invention, water source supply of the river basin under different climatic situations in the future is considered, and the water, light and wind resource utilization maximization and the river basin water source supply are coordinated as the core, so that the water-light-wind multifunctional complementary capacity expansion model with the river basin dimension and the climatic dimension is constructed, and the blank of the multifunctional complementary capacity expansion model with the river basin dimension and the climatic dimension can be filled.
2. The water-light-wind multifunctional complementary capacity expansion model in the future of the river basin scale and the climate scale can provide a new thought and a new way of theory and practice for adapting and coping with the future climate change and formulating the long-term planning and optimizing layout of the multi-energy complementary and capacity expansion system from the aspects of macroscopic level and policy planning.
3. The complementary capacity expansion model constructed by the invention can provide a new view angle for the development and utilization of new energy and the coordinated development of ecological environment.
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The following describes the embodiments of the present invention in further detail with reference to the drawings.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed Description
Future water, light and wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion model with river basin scale and climate scale, wherein the model is formed by a target functional maxf 1 Target functional minf 2 The two water source supply constraint conditions, the electric quantity output constraint condition and the electric quantity balance constraint condition are jointly formed, and are expressed as follows:
wherein:
maxf 1 ＝P w (t)+P f (t); wherein: p (P) w (t) the change of the total wind power output of a research area along with time in different climate change scenes in the future is shown in a unit kW; p (P) f And (t) is the change of the photoelectric total output of a research area with time under different climate change scenes in the future, and the unit is kW. The physical meaning of the target functional is: in different climate change situations in the future, the total output of wind and light power generation is maximum, so that the wind and light power generation is ensured to be connected into the complementary capacity expansion system as much as possible, and the water resource can meet the water source supply of the river basin to the greatest extent.
Wherein: p (P) c And (t) the total power rejection sum of water, light and wind in the research area under different climate change scenes in the future is changed along with time, and the unit kW. The physical meaning of the target functional is: in different weather change situations in the future, the total power rejection of water, light and wind power generation is minimum, so that the maximum power generation output efficiency of the complementary capacity expansion system is ensured, and the maximization and optimal utilization of water, light and wind resources are realized.
Water supply constraint condition I: p (P) h (t)≥P h,his The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein: p (P) h (t) represents the change of the total hydropower output of a research area with time under different climate change scenes in the future, and the unit kW; p (P) h,his The total hydropower output of a research area in a historical period is expressed in a unit kW, and the total hydropower output can be calculated by using a data-driven WRF-Hydro mode of different climate change scenes and historical scenes in the future of CMIP 6. The physical meaning of the constraint condition is: referring to the existing water, light and wind base distribution, power generation (power station) parameters and power consumption requirements, and considering the change of the water power output under different climate change situations in the future, so that the water power output under different climate change situations in the future is larger than the historical water power output; the condition being greater than zero indicates that the future hydropower output is surplus, less than zero indicates that the future hydropower output is deficit, and equal to zero indicates that neither surplus nor deficit is present.
Water source replenishing restraint stripPart II: r is R h (t)≥R h,his The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein: r is R h (t) represents the change of water resources of a research area with time under different climate change scenes in the future, the unit is mm, and the unit is calculated by a WRF-Hydro mode; r is R h,his The water resource of the research area in the historical period is expressed in mm, and can be obtained by the historical lattice product. The physical meaning of the constraint condition is: the water resource under different climate change situations in the future is larger than the historical water resource; the condition being greater than zero indicates that there is a surplus of unused water resources, less than zero indicates that there is a deficit of unused water resources, and equal to zero indicates that there is neither a surplus nor a deficit. The water power output and the water resource under different climate change scenes in the future are larger than the water source supply constraint conditions in the historical period, so that the water resource surplus in the future is ensured, the power generation is stable, and the power utilization is safe.
Electric quantity output constraint conditions: [ P ] h (t)+P w (t)+P f (t)]≥P plan The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein: p (P) plan Annual and seasonal averages (constants) of the sum of total regional water, light and wind output are studied for historical periods, in kW. The physical meaning of the constraint condition is: the total output of water, light and wind power generation under different climate change situations in the future is larger than or equal to the sum of the output of historical water, light and wind power generation so as to meet the power consumption requirements under different climate change situations in the future.
Power balance constraint conditions: p (P) c (t)＝P plan -[P h (t)+P w (t)+P f (t)]. The physical meaning of the constraint condition is: the sum of historical water, light and wind power generation output of the research area (P plan ) And the difference of the sum of the power generation output of water, light and wind in different periods under different weather change scenes in the future.
The model of the invention takes the coordination of water, light and wind resource utilization maximization and watershed water source supply as a core, is suitable for a water-light-wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion model with a spatial scale as a watershed and a time scale as a season and an annual, and aims to realize the long-term planning and the optimized layout of a future multi-energy complementary and capacity expansion system from the aspects of macroscopic level and policy planning.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for constructing the model includes the following steps:
the method comprises the steps of researching the existing water, light and wind power base layout (base position, base area, installed capacity and the like) in a research area, generating parameters of the water, light and wind power base, and generating power by water, light and wind power in a historical period.
(2) The simulation results of surface runoffs, river area, river water amount, water head height, low-layer wind speed, low-layer air temperature and short wave radiation in different future climate change scenes are calculated by using observation data and mode data of SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP460 and SSP585 in CMIP6 (which is short for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 and provides a simulation product in different climate change scenes in the world and different future 100 years) in a global history scene.
Inputting the simulation results in the step (2) into calculation methods of hydroelectric power output, photoelectric power output and wind power output, and combining the existing water, light and wind base layout of the research area in the step to obtain the future hydroelectric power output value P of the research area h (t) photoelectric output value P f (t) wind power output value P w (t)。
The calculation formula of the water, light and wind power generation output is referred to in the prior literature (Yao Guigong et al, 2023; wang et al, 2021; tian Lou et al, 2023). The specific method comprises the following steps:
(1) water power value P h (t)：
P h (t)＝AH(t)Q(t)；Q(t)＝Fq(t)/(86.4×10 6 )T
Wherein: a is a hydroelectric power coefficient, which consists of the density of water, the gravity acceleration and the power generation efficiency of a hydropower station, and takes the following values:
h (t) is the water head height (unit: m), is composed of the pressure of water, the density of water and the acceleration of gravity, and can be calculated by the data driving WRF-Hydro mode of different climate change scenes in the future of CMIP 6;
q (t) is the change of the flow rate of water with time (unit: m) under different climate change scenes in the future 3 /s)；
F is the area of the flow field (unit: m 2 ) Obtained by ArcGIS according to geographic information, river information, etc.;
q (t) is the change (unit: mm) of the river water quantity with time under different future climate conditions, and is calculated by the data-driven WRF-Hydro mode of the different future climate change conditions of the CMIP 6;
t is the actual number of days per month (unit: day).
(2) Photoelectric output value P f (t)：
Wherein: lambda is the installed capacity (unit: kW) of the photovoltaic power station, and can be obtained by referring to the power generation parameters of the existing photovoltaic power station;
R s (t) is the variation of the downward short wave radiation with time (unit: W/m) in different climatic situations in the future 2 )；
R stc ＝1000W/m 2 The solar radiation intensity under standard test conditions;
α p -0.35%/°c, which is the air temperature power conversion coefficient;
T stc =25 ℃, air temperature under standard test conditions;
t (T) is the temperature change (unit:. Degree.C.) of the solar panel with time under different future climate situations.
T air (t) is the change of the temperature of 2m with time (unit is DEG C) under different future climate situations;
T noc the temperature of the solar panel for normal operation is usually 48+/-2 ℃;
R s (T) and T air And (t) each is calculated by the data driving WRF-Hydro mode of different climate change scenes in the future of the CMIP 6.
(3) Wind power output value P w (t)：
Wherein: delta is the installed capacity (unit: kW) of the wind farm, and can be obtained by referring to the power generation parameters of the existing wind farm;
V r =11 m/s, full wind speed; v (V) in =3m/s, cut-in wind speed; v (V) out =25 m/s, cut-out wind speed;
V hub for the change (unit: m/s) of wind speed along with time at the height of the fan hub of different climate change scenes in the future, the method is calculated by a data driving WRF-Hydro mode of the CMIP6 of different climate change scenes in the future, firstly, the ground clearance of a mode layer is directly set to the height of the fan hub, and secondly, the method is obtained by interpolation of other mode height layers.
Fourth, building a target functional maxf 1 Target functional minf 2 The water source supply constraint condition, the electric quantity output constraint condition and the electric power balance constraint condition are adopted to further obtain a water-light-wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion model, and the water-light-wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion model is specifically described as follows:
and (5) a robust optimization algorithm based on the uncertain optimization problem of research, namely, a CPLEX solver (IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimization Studio) is used for solving a water-light-wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion model to obtain an optimal solution of water-light-wind power generation output of a research area in time under different climate change situations in the future, and a future water-light-wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion scheme is obtained according to the following conditions:
if the optimal solution of the complementary capacity expansion model is less than P in a future period of time plan The water-light-wind power generation output loss in the period is calculated based on the step (2), and the spatial distribution of water, light and wind output in the research area is calculated, and the geographic information (such as terrain height, terrain gradient, vegetation coverage and the like) of different areas in the research area and the future climate disaster are combinedThe harmful risks (such as sand dust, cold tide, high temperature, low temperature, snowfall, ice coating and the like) are expanded and optimally distributed on the existing water, light and wind base;
if the optimal solution of the complementary capacity expansion model is greater than P in a future period plan And (3) calculating the spatial distribution of water, light and wind power generation in the research area based on the step (2), and formulating an energy storage or outward transmission scheme of the total amount of water, light and wind power generation in the time interval.
If the optimal solution of the complementary capacity expansion model is equal to P in a future period plan Indicating that the existing water, light and wind layout meets the future requirements.
Claims (2)
1. A watershed scale and climate scale future water, light and wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion model is characterized in that: the model is composed of a target functional maxf 1 Target functional minf 2 The two water source supply constraint conditions, the electric quantity output constraint condition and the electric quantity balance constraint condition are jointly formed, and are expressed as follows:
wherein:
maxf 1 ＝P w (t)+P f (t); wherein: p (P) w (t) the change of the total wind power output of a research area along with time in different climate change scenes in the future is shown in a unit kW; p (P) f (t) is the change of the total photoelectric output of a research area along with time under different climate change scenes in the future, and the unit kW;
wherein: p (P) c (t) the change of the sum of total waste electricity of water, light and wind in a research area along with time in different climate change scenes in the future is shown in a unit kW;
water supply constraint condition I: p (P) h (t)≥P h,his The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein: p (P) h (t) represents the future different climate change conditionsThe total hydropower output of a scene investigation region changes with time in kW; p (P) h,his Total hydropower output in kW of a research area in a historical period is represented;
water supply constraint condition ii: r is R h (t)≥R h,his The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein: r is R h (t) represents the change of water resources of a research area with time under different climate change scenes in the future, and the unit is mm; r is R h,his Water resources in mm representing the study area in the historical period;
electric quantity output constraint conditions: [ P ] h (t)+P w (t)+P f (t)]≥P plan The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein: p (P) plan The annual and seasonal average value of the sum of the total output of water, light and wind in the area is researched for historical period, and the unit kW;
power balance constraint conditions: p (P) c (t)＝P plan -[P h (t)+P w (t)+P f (t)]。
2. The method for constructing a model according to claim 1, comprising the steps of:
the method comprises the steps of researching the layout of the existing water, light and wind power bases in a research area, generating parameters of the water, light and wind power bases, and generating power by water, light and wind power in a historical period;
(2) Driving a WRF-Hydro mode by using observation data and mode data of different future climate change scenes of CMIP6, and calculating by the WRF-Hydro mode to obtain simulation results of surface runoffs, river basin areas, river water volume, water head height, low-layer wind speed, low-layer air temperature and short wave radiation under different future climate change scenes;
inputting the simulation results in the step (2) into calculation methods of hydroelectric power output, photoelectric power output and wind power output, and combining the existing water, light and wind base layout of the research area in the step to obtain the future hydroelectric power output value P of the research area h (t) photoelectric output value P f (t) wind power output value P w (t)；
Fourth, building a target functional maxf 1 Target functional minf 2 Water source replenishment constraint, electric quantity output constraint and electric power balance constraint, thereby obtaining water-light-a wind multipotency complementary dilatation model;
and fifthly, solving a water-light-wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion model based on a robust optimization algorithm for researching an uncertain optimization problem to obtain an optimal solution of water-light-wind power generation capacity of a research area in time under different climate change situations in the future, and obtaining a future water-light-wind multi-energy complementary capacity expansion scheme according to the following conditions:
if the optimal solution of the complementary capacity expansion model is less than P in a future period of time plan Calculating the spatial distribution of water, light and wind power generation in the research area based on the step (2), and carrying out capacity expansion and optimization layout on the existing water, light and wind base by combining the geographic information of different areas of the research area and the risks of future climate disasters;
if the optimal solution of the complementary capacity expansion model is greater than P in a future period plan Calculating the spatial distribution of water, light and wind power generation in the research area based on the step (2), and formulating an energy storage or outward transmission scheme of the total amount of water, light and wind power generation in the time interval;
if the optimal solution of the complementary capacity expansion model is equal to P in a future period plan Indicating that the existing water, light and wind layout meets the future requirements.
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| CN107330538A (en) * | 2016-09-20 | 2017-11-07 | 武汉大学 | A kind of method of climate lower storage reservoir adaptability scheduling rule establishment |
| CN115081693A (en) * | 2022-06-08 | 2022-09-20 | 天津大学 | Two-stage capacity configuration method of water-wind-light complementary system with uncertain energy |
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| CN107330538A (en) * | 2016-09-20 | 2017-11-07 | 武汉大学 | A kind of method of climate lower storage reservoir adaptability scheduling rule establishment |
| CN115081693A (en) * | 2022-06-08 | 2022-09-20 | 天津大学 | Two-stage capacity configuration method of water-wind-light complementary system with uncertain energy |
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