CN117252436B - Method and system for land utilization change ecological risk partition - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application relates to the technical field of data processing systems for prediction purposes, and provides a method and a system for land utilization change ecological risk partitioning. According to the method, according to the service loss of an ecological system in an evaluation base period and the land utilization change probability of the evaluation period, the ecological risk index of each grid unit in the future evaluation period is calculated, a dispersion coefficient method is used for obtaining an area ecological risk difference index, the ratio of the area of the service loss of the ecological system in a research area to the total area of the research area is adopted for representing the probability of ecological risk caused by the land utilization change of the evaluation period, finally, an ecological risk comprehensive index is constructed according to the loss and the land utilization change probability and the loss angle generated to the ecological system, an ecological risk area is identified, and an ecological risk partition map of the research area is drawn. The method can effectively explain ecological risks caused by the possibility of conversion of different land utilization types, and improves the rationality of results.
Description
Technical Field
The present application relates to the field of data processing systems for predictive purposes, and in particular, to a method, system, computer readable storage medium and electronic device for land use varied ecological risk zoning.
Background
In the last few decades, human activity disturbances have caused changes in the structure and function of the ecosystem, which affect a series of ecological processes involving the atmosphere, soil, water and organisms, with a wide range of ecological effects, and the resultant land degradation is a variety of realistic and potential ecological risks. At the same time, land utilization activities that interfere with the ecological environment, such as tropical rain forest fragmentation, global city expansion, wildfire growth risk, etc., create a tremendous ecological risk. For example, habitat changes caused by changes in human land utilization continue to exacerbate the potential loss and extinct risk of 19400 amphibians, birds and mammals across the entire habitat. It can be seen that the ecological risk caused by the land use change is urgent, and the ecological restoration and sustainable development process is particularly enhanced.
The original land utilization change ecological risk research mainly has two ideas, namely a traditional evaluation method based on a risk source and sink theory, namely 'source analysis-receptor evaluation-exposure and hazard evaluation-risk characterization'; and secondly, carrying out ecological risk assessment based on a landscape ecology theory. With the continuous deep research of ecological risks of land utilization, the evaluation method and the evaluation model are more diversified. However, the existing research frameworks can only evaluate the impact of land use changes at the base period, cannot explain the possibility between different land use type conversions, and ignore the possibility of future risk.
Accordingly, there is a need to provide an improved solution to the above-mentioned deficiencies of the prior art.
Disclosure of Invention
It is an object of the present application to provide a method, system, computer-readable storage medium and electronic device for land use varying ecological risk zoning to solve or alleviate the problems with the prior art described above.
In order to achieve the above object, the present application provides the following technical solutions:
the application provides a method for land utilization change ecological risk partitioning, which comprises the following steps:
according to the ecological system service loss of the evaluation base period and the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated, calculating the ecological risk index of each grid unit in the period to be evaluated; the evaluation base period is a period serving as a starting point of ecological risk evaluation, and the period to be evaluated is a target reporting period in need of ecological risk evaluation;
calculating a dispersion coefficient of the ecological risk index, and taking the dispersion coefficient as a regional ecological risk difference index;
based on the ecological system service loss, counting the ratio of the area of the ecological system service loss in the research area to the total area of the research area, and obtaining the area ratio of the ecological system service function loss, wherein the area ratio of the ecological system service function loss is used for representing the probability of ecological risks in the period to be evaluated;
And carrying out product operation on the regional ecological risk difference value index and the probability of the ecological risk to obtain an ecological risk comprehensive index, partitioning the ecological risk of the research region in the period to be evaluated based on the ecological risk comprehensive index, and drawing an ecological risk partition map.
Preferably, before calculating the ecological risk index of each grid cell during the period to be evaluated, the method further comprises:
gridding a research area;
acquiring land utilization change history data; the land use change history data comprises land use data of a history base period and land use data of a history end period;
simulating the land utilization change scene of the period to be evaluated by utilizing the land utilization change history data to obtain the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated;
and calculating the difference of the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the historical base period and the historical end period based on the land utilization change historical data so as to acquire the ecosystem service loss of the estimated base period.
Preferably, calculating a difference in ecosystem service value of each grid cell in the history base period and the history end period based on the land use change history data to obtain an ecosystem service loss in the evaluation base period includes:
Extracting grid units with changed land utilization types between a historical base period and a historical termination period to obtain a changed grid unit set;
respectively calculating the ecological system service value of each grid unit in the change grid unit set in the history basal period and the ecological system service value of each grid unit in the history termination period;
calculating the difference between the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the change grid unit set in the history basal period and the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history termination period based on the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history basal period and the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history termination period to obtain an ecosystem service increment and decrement value;
when the ecosystem service increasing and decreasing value is a negative number, the ecosystem service function of the grid unit is considered to be lost, and the ecosystem service increasing and decreasing value is taken as the value of the ecosystem service loss of the grid unit in the evaluation period.
Preferably, the grid units with the land utilization types changed between the historical base period and the historical end period are extracted to obtain a changed grid unit set, specifically:
and extracting all grid units with land utilization change probability larger than a preset probability threshold value in the to-be-evaluated period in the research area to obtain a change grid unit set.
Preferably, the ecosystem service value is calculated from the sum of a plurality of key ecosystem service value amounts, the key ecosystem service comprising: carbon reserves, water production, soil conservation, nutrient recycling (N, P), net primary productivity.
Preferably, before calculating the service value of the ecosystem, the method further comprises: and (3) standardizing the key ecosystem service to obtain a key ecosystem service standard value, calculating the ecosystem service standard value according to the key ecosystem service standard value, and taking the ecosystem service standard value as the ecosystem service value.
Preferably, the land use change history data is used for simulating the land use change scene of the period to be evaluated to obtain the land use change probability of the period to be evaluated, which is specifically as follows:
based on the land utilization data of the historical base period and the land utilization data of the historical termination period, simulating land utilization change scenes of the period to be evaluated by using a land utilization change LCM model; obtaining a scene simulation result;
determining sensitivity of transfer between land categories in land use data during a period to be evaluated using a land use change sensitivity module of an LCM model;
And generating a land utilization change sensitivity map by adopting a land utilization change potential submodel (MLP for short), and predicting by using a Markov chain to obtain the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated.
The embodiment of the application provides a land utilization change ecological risk partition system, which comprises:
the risk index calculating unit is configured to calculate an ecological risk index of each grid unit in the period to be evaluated according to the ecological system service loss of the evaluation base period and the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated; the evaluation base period is a period serving as a starting point of ecological risk evaluation, and the period to be evaluated is a target reporting period in need of ecological risk evaluation;
a risk difference value index calculation unit configured to calculate a dispersion coefficient of the ecological risk index, and take the dispersion coefficient as a regional ecological risk difference value index;
the risk probability calculation unit is configured to calculate the ratio of the area of the ecological system service loss to the total area of the research area based on the ecological system service loss, and obtain the area ratio of the ecological system service function loss, wherein the area ratio of the ecological system service loss is used for representing the probability of ecological risks in the period to be evaluated;
the comprehensive index calculation unit is configured to perform product operation on the regional ecological risk difference value index and the probability of the ecological risk to obtain an ecological risk comprehensive index, partition the ecological risk of the research region in the period to be evaluated based on the ecological risk comprehensive index, and draw an ecological risk partition map.
Embodiments of the present application also provide a computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements a method as described in any of the embodiments above.
The embodiment of the application also provides electronic equipment, which comprises: a memory, a processor, and a program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the method according to any of the embodiments above when executing the program.
The beneficial effects are that:
according to the technical scheme, according to the ecological system service loss of an evaluation base period and the land utilization change probability of an evaluation period, calculating the ecological risk index of each grid unit in the future evaluation period, obtaining an area ecological risk difference value index by using a dispersion coefficient method, characterizing the probability of ecological risk caused by land utilization change of the evaluation period by adopting the ratio of the area of the ecological system service loss in a research area to the total area of the research area, and finally constructing an ecological risk comprehensive index from the land utilization change probability and the loss angle generated to an ecological system, identifying an ecological risk area and drawing an ecological risk partition map of the research area. According to the method, through the transformation evaluation thought, the theory based on the traditional risk source and sink theory and the landscape ecology theory is changed into the idea of adopting disaster risk evaluation, a risk evaluation equation is introduced, the land use change probability in the period to be evaluated is considered, the ecological risk caused by the land use change is quantitatively evaluated, the influence of the land use change in the period to be evaluated can be evaluated, the degree of the influence of the possibility of transformation of different land use types on the ecological risk can be effectively explained, the possibility of future risk is fully considered, and the rationality and the interpretability of the evaluation result are improved.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the application and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the application and together with the description serve to explain the application and do not constitute an undue limitation to the application. Wherein:
fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for land use changing ecological risk partitioning provided in accordance with some embodiments of the present application.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a system architecture for land use varying ecological risk zones provided in accordance with some embodiments of the present application.
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 4 is a hardware configuration diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
For ease of understanding, the following description refers to related terms.
Ecosystem services (Ecosystem Services, ES for short) refer to a variety of direct and indirect benefits, values and resources that natural ecosystems offer to humans. Ecosystem services are typically characterized by an ecosystem service value, so in this embodiment, the ecosystem service and the ecosystem service value are considered to have the same meaning.
Land use change refers to a phenomenon in which the use or coverage of land changes over different periods of time, which may involve a transition from one use to another, as represented by a transition from one type of land to another, such as from cultivated land to woodland, or from cultivated land to grassland. Land use changes generally reflect human activity, development, and environmental changes.
Ecological risks refer to the potential or potential adverse events or effects faced by the ecosystem, which risks may be natural or may be caused by human activity. Ecological risk assessment aims at identifying, assessing and understanding these risks to take measures to reduce their potential impact.
The present application will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings in conjunction with embodiments. Various examples are provided by way of explanation of the present application and not limitation of the present application. Indeed, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that modifications and variations can be made in the present application without departing from the scope or spirit of the application. For example, features illustrated or described as part of one embodiment can be used on another embodiment to yield still a further embodiment. Accordingly, it is intended that the present application include such modifications and alterations insofar as they come within the scope of the appended claims or the equivalents thereof.
Exemplary method
The embodiment of the application provides a method for land utilization change ecological risk partitioning, as shown in fig. 1, the method comprises the following steps:
and step S101, calculating an ecological risk index of each grid unit in the period to be evaluated according to the ecological system service loss of the evaluation base period and the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated.
The evaluation base period is a period serving as a starting point of ecological risk evaluation, the period to be evaluated is a target report period required to be subjected to ecological risk evaluation, the period to be evaluated can be a designated period after the evaluation base period, and the designated period can be a past period or a future period relative to the current time, that is, the method can be used for evaluating the ecological risk possibly generated by land utilization change in the future.
In order to ensure the accuracy of the ecological risk assessment, the assessment base period used as a starting point can be a historical period which is relatively close to the prior period and has complete data collection in all aspects, and the period to be assessed is an end period of the assessment, namely the ecological risk condition of the period needs to be assessed.
In this embodiment, an ecological risk index of land use variation is constructed based on the likelihood and hazard angle, and the ecological risk of land use variation is quantitatively evaluated by introducing a risk evaluation equation in disaster risk evaluation. The probability is represented by land utilization change probability, namely the probability that a certain land utilization type is transferred to any other land utilization type in a future period to be predicted, and the harm is represented by ecological system service loss, namely the loss of ecological system service function caused by land utilization change.
The ecosystem services have spatial heterogeneity, i.e. different ecosystem services in different areas and different distribution of ecological risks. In this embodiment, a geographical space range to be studied is optionally selected as a study area, and may be a range defined by administrative regions such as a country, a province, a city, etc., or may be a range determined in other manners, such as a region downstream in the Yangtze river. Of course, other space ranges are also possible, and this embodiment is not limited thereto.
Land use change is a long-term and continuous process, and accordingly, the change of the service value of the ecosystem is also a long-term and continuous process, and from the direction of change, the change of land use may cause the service value of the ecosystem to change to an advantageous direction, i.e. the service value of the ecosystem is increased, and may also cause the service value of the ecosystem to decrease, and the reduced service value of the ecosystem is called as an ecosystem service loss in this embodiment. It will be appreciated that for any two periods of ecosystem service value, the end-of-period (end-period) ecosystem service value is a reduced value compared to the initial-period (start-period) ecosystem service value, i.e., the ecosystem service loss during that period.
In order to study the influence of future land utilization changes on ecological risks, the embodiment introduces the parameter of the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated to characterize the probability of transition between different land types when calculating the ecological risk index.
The land types of the land can comprise woodland, cultivated land, grassland, water body, construction land, unused land and the like, and the transition between different land types refers to the development of a certain time, and the land type at the beginning of the period changes at the end of the period. For example, for any land type at the beginning of the period, the change is converted to any other land type at the end of the period, i.e. the land use change is considered to be a land use change, i.e. the land type is transferred, e.g. the land type at the beginning of the period is cultivated land, and at the end of the period the land may be transferred to woodland, grassland, etc. Land utilization change probabilities can characterize the likelihood of transitions between different land types at the beginning and end of the period. Due to the transition (i.e. land use change) between land types from the base land type to the future period to be predicted, there are various paths (e.g. cultivated land->Lin De and cultivated land>Grasslands, etc.), land utilization variation probabilities include the probability of each transition occurring. Therefore, the ecological risk index of each grid unit in the future to-be-predicted period is obtained by multiplying the probability of occurrence of the transfer path on the grid unit by the ecological service loss. In particular for any grid element iThe calculation formula of the ecological risk index is as follows:
（1）
in the method, in the process of the invention,ERI i is a grid unitiIs used for the ecological risk index of (a),jrepresent the firstjSeed transfer path, j=1, 2, …M，MFor the number of all transfer paths,P ij is a grid unitiUpper firstjThe probability of the source type transition path occurring,ES ci representing grid cellsiUpper ecologySystem service loss. The formula shows that the ecological risk of land utilization change is the product of the possibility of land utilization change and the ecological system service loss caused by the land utilization change, each land type transfer can cause corresponding change of the ecological system service function, so that the ecological risk index has multiple types, and each type of ecological risk index corresponds to one land type transfer possibility.
The ecological risk of land utilization change mainly comes from the loss of the service function of the ecological system caused by land utilization change, so that the area with increased service value of the ecological system is not considered when the ecological risk is evaluated, namely, the ecological risk value of the area with increased service function of the ecological system is assigned to 0.
Further, in order to unify dimensions, subsequent calculation is facilitated, and the ecological risk evaluation result (namely the ecological risk index) is normalized, so that a normalized value of the ecological risk index is obtained. Here, the normalized value of the ecological risk index is also referred to as a risk value, the greater the ecological risk, and vice versa.
Step S102, calculating a dispersion coefficient of the ecological risk index, and taking the dispersion coefficient as a regional ecological risk difference index.
In particular, a grid celliFor regional ecological risk difference index(s)ES i The specific calculation formula is shown as follows:
（2）
in the method, in the process of the invention,ES i representing grid cellsiIs used for the ecological risk difference value index of (a),is the firstiOn the individual grid cellsjNormalized value of class ecological risk index, +.>Is the firstiOn the individual grid cellsjAverage value of normalized value of class ecological risk index.
And step S103, based on the service loss of the ecological system, counting the ratio of the area of the service loss of the ecological system in the research area to the total area of the research area, and obtaining the area ratio of the service function loss of the ecological system, wherein the area ratio of the service function loss of the ecological system is used for representing the probability of ecological risks.
Specifically, the probability of representing ecological risks based on the area occupation ratio of the service function loss of the ecological system of each area is also called as reverse conversion rate, and the calculation formula is as follows:
（3）
in the method, in the process of the invention,Pserving reverse conversion rate for the ecosystem;ΔSserving the conversion area in the reverse direction for the ecosystem;Sis the total area of the investigation region.
And step S104, carrying out product operation on the regional ecological risk difference value index and the probability of the ecological risk to obtain an ecological risk comprehensive index, partitioning the ecological risk of the research region in the future period to be predicted based on the ecological risk comprehensive index, and drawing an ecological risk partition map.
The coordinated development of the ecological system service is the comprehensive characterization of regional ecological environment quality, and the condition of the coordinated development of the regional ecological service is worsened, which means that the regional ecological risk is increased. According to the embodiment, based on the ecological risk index, the regional ecological risk difference index is obtained by adopting a dispersion coefficient method, the probability of ecological risk is identified by the ratio of the area of various ecological system service losses in the research region to the total area of the research region, and the ecological risk comprehensive index ERCI (Ecological Risk Composite Index) based on ecological risk change is constructed. The specific calculation formula is as follows:
ERCI=P×ES i （4）
in the method, in the process of the invention,ERCIand (5) a comprehensive ecological risk index.
The risk loss is expressed in terms of a unit ecological risk difference index of the ecological risk. Will be by the natural breakpoint method in arcgis10.6ERCIIs divided into 5 ecological risk classes (low ecological risk, medium-low ecological risk, medium life)Ecological risk, medium-high ecological risk, high ecological risk).
On the basis of the foregoing embodiment, the ecosystem service loss is obtained by calculating the difference between the ecosystem service values of the history base period and the history end period, and therefore, before calculating the ecological risk index of each grid unit, the following steps are further included: gridding a research area; acquiring land utilization change history data; the land use change history data includes land use data of a history base period and land use data of a history end period; simulating land utilization change scenes of the period to be evaluated by using land utilization change history data to obtain land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated; based on the land utilization change history data, the difference of the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history base period and the history end period is calculated to obtain the ecosystem service loss.
In this embodiment, in order to efficiently organize, store and analyze geospatial data, providing information about spatial distribution and attributes of different geographical areas, a study area is first meshed, i.e., the study area or region is divided into regular grids, meshes or grid systems, each of which is a geospatial unit of the same size or shape, prior to performing ecological risk assessment, for better management and analysis of the spatial data.
The scheme provided in this embodiment is to evaluate the ecological risk possibly caused by the land use change based on the historical data, so that the land use change historical data needs to be acquired before the ecological risk evaluation is performed, where the data includes at least land use data in two periods of a historical base period and a historical end period, and may also be time series data composed of a plurality of periods, and for convenience of explanation, the initial period of the data is referred to as the historical base period, and the end period of the data is referred to as the historical end period.
Illustratively, the ecological risk caused by land use change in year 2020-2035 is predicted based on land use change history data in year 2000-2020. In this example, the history base period is 2000 and the history expiration period is 2020. The year 2020 is the evaluation base period, i.e. the predicted start time, and the year 2035 is the period to be evaluated, i.e. the target reporting period for which ecological risk evaluation is required. It will be appreciated that the historical expiration period of land use variation may or may not be the same as the evaluation base period (i.e., the start of evaluation), e.g., both 2020.
On the basis of acquiring the land utilization change history data, the possibility of land utilization change in a future period to be evaluated needs to be predicted, namely the land utilization change probability is calculated.
There are various methods for calculating the land use variation probability, for example, statistical methods, physical simulation methods, and the like. In this embodiment, the method includes the steps of: based on the land utilization data of the historical base period and the land utilization data of the historical termination period, simulating land utilization change scenes of the period to be evaluated by using a land utilization change LCM (Land Change Modeler) model; obtaining a scene simulation result; determining sensitivity of transfer between land categories in land use data during a period to be evaluated using a land use change sensitivity module of an LCM model; and generating a land utilization change sensitivity map by adopting a land utilization change potential submodel (MLP) for short, and predicting by using a Markov Chain (MC) for short to obtain the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated.
The LCM model is a land utilization change prediction tool applied to planning, and has the characteristics of intuitiveness, easiness in use, wide application range, strong modularization, high simulation precision and the like. In this embodiment, based on land utilization data of different periods, each land type in land utilization is converted into a set of submodels that can be combined or excluded according to a certain threshold through an LCM model, that is, a relationship between each land type transition and a set of explanatory variables is established, and future scenarios are described based on this. According to the embodiment, scene simulation is completed through the LCM model, and a corresponding scene simulation result is obtained.
The LCM model includes a land use change sensitivity module for determining the sensitivity of the land use data to transitions between various land types (i.e., land types) during the period to be evaluated. In this module, a series of driving variables are input to the determined sub-model for simulating future land use changes.
On the basis of acquiring the land utilization change, generating a land utilization change sensitivity map by using the MLP. The land use change sensitivity map represents the response or sensitivity of different regions to land use changes in different map styles.
It should be noted that, LCM model has characteristics of intuitiveness, easy use, wide application range, strong modularization, high simulation precision, etc., integrates advantages of numerous models such as Markov, MOLA, etc., and provides parameterized operation mode. Based on past two-stage land use data, the LCM model divides each land use class transformation into a group of sub-models which can be combined or excluded according to a certain threshold value, and establishes a relation between each land class transformation and a group of explanatory variables, and based on the relation, future scenes are described. In this embodiment, the scenario simulation is completed by LCM model. The land utilization change susceptibility module determines the susceptibility of transitions between specific classes. In this module, a series of driving variables are input to a determined sub-model for simulating land use changes that occurred in the past, so that the MLP generates a land use change sensitivity map, and the method can deal with complex nonlinear functions by considering synergistic or inhibitory effects between the variables. And is therefore a powerful function suitable for fitting between land use variation potential and interpretation variables. In the embodiment, various land utilization transfer potentials are generated by adopting MLP, and MC is utilized to predict land utilization change.
On the basis of acquiring land use change history data, the ecological service loss is calculated by using the land use change history data in addition to the land use change probability. Specifically, based on land utilization change history data, a difference between an ecosystem service value of each grid cell in a history base period and a history end period is calculated to obtain an ecosystem service loss of an evaluation base period, comprising the steps of: extracting grid units with changed land utilization types between a historical base period and a historical termination period to obtain a changed grid unit set; respectively calculating the ecological system service value of each grid unit in the change grid unit set in the history basal period and the ecological system service value of each grid unit in the history termination period; calculating the difference between the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the change grid unit set in the history basal period and the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history termination period based on the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history basal period and the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history termination period to obtain an ecosystem service increment and decrement value; when the ecosystem service increasing and decreasing value is a negative number, the ecosystem service function of the grid unit is considered to be lost, and the ecosystem service increasing and decreasing value is taken as the value of the ecosystem service loss of the grid unit in the evaluation period.
In this embodiment, the evaluation of the ecological risk only considers the area where the land type changes, that is, the grid unit where the land utilization type changes is extracted first, so that the subsequent calculation amount is reduced by excluding the grid of the area where the land utilization type changes. Because the ecological service caused by land utilization change has spatial heterogeneity, the ecological service function increase and decrease caused by the transfer of different land types in different areas are different, and the ecological service function increase and decrease caused by the transfer of different land types in the same area are also different, in order to ensure the reliability of the ecological risk assessment result, some embodiments further comprise a step of screening the changed grid units by utilizing the change possibility, specifically, extracting the grid units with the changed land utilization types between the historical base period and the historical end period, and obtaining a changed grid unit set comprises: and extracting all grid units with land utilization change probability larger than a preset probability threshold value in the to-be-evaluated period in the research area to obtain a change grid unit set.
It should be noted that, when the probability threshold is used to represent the limit value of the occurrence probability of land use transfer and a larger probability threshold is set, the probability that the land use of the grid unit meeting the threshold condition changes is also larger, and the specific value can be set based on the prior knowledge and the specific situation of the research area, which is not limited in this embodiment.
After the change grid unit set is acquired, the values of the ecosystem service values of the grid units in the history base period (for example, 2000) and the history end period (for example, 2020) need to be calculated respectively so as to clearly understand the increase and decrease of the ecological service functions caused by the change of the types of the various places.
In this embodiment, the ecosystem service value is also referred to as an ecosystem service total, and is calculated from the sum of a plurality of key ecosystem service value amounts, where the key ecosystem service at least includes: carbon reserves, water production, soil conservation, nutrient circulation, total primary productivity (NPP). The specific calculation formula is as follows:
（5）
in the method, in the process of the invention,ESI i is a grid unitiThe total amount of ecological system services, namely ecological service value;kis the firstkA number of critical ecosystem services,k=1,2，…K，Ktotal number of services for the key ecosystem;ESN ik is a grid unitiUpper firstkAnd the service value of the key ecosystem.
In order to unify dimensions, before computing the service value of the ecosystem, the method further comprises: the key ecosystem service is standardized to obtain a key ecosystem service standard value, the ecosystem service standard value is calculated according to the key ecosystem service standard value, and the ecosystem service standard value is used as the ecosystem service value, and the corresponding formula is as follows:
（6）
In the method, in the process of the invention,ESN ik is a grid unitiUpper firstkA key ecosystem service standard value;ESK ik is a grid unitiUpper firstkThe key ecosystem service standardizes the original values before.ESK kmax 、ESK kmin Respectively all grid unitskMaximum and minimum values for each critical ecosystem service.
The following describes the estimation of each key ecosystem service, namely carbon reserves, water yield, soil conservation, nutrient circulation, total primary productivity.
(1) Carbon reserves
The present embodiment uses the InVEST model Carbon module to estimate Carbon reserves based on land utilization coating type, and evaluates total Carbon reserves by calculating vegetation land Carbon reserves, vegetation subsurface Carbon reserves, soil Carbon reserves, and dead organic Carbon reserves. In this embodiment, the carbon density data of year 2000 and year 2020 are respectively subjected to temperature correction and rainfall correction by using the carbon density data of the coverage type of different lands nationwide in 2010, so as to obtain the total carbon reserves, and the calculation formula is as follows:
（7）
in the method, in the process of the invention,C total in order to be a total carbon reserve,C above is the carbon reserves on the vegetation ground,C below is the carbon reserve of the vegetation underground,C soil in order to provide a carbon reserve in the soil,C dead is a dead organic carbon reserve.
(2) Water yield
In this embodiment, based on the water balance principle and the hydro-thermal coupling balance assumption of Budyko, according to annual average precipitation data, the water yield is estimated by using the water yield module of the invent model, and the calculation formula is as follows:
（8）
In the method, in the process of the invention,mfor the type of land used for the land utilization,Y im representing grid cellsiIn the first placemThe water yield under the type of the seed land,AET i is a grid unitiIs used for the actual annual evapotranspiration of the car,P i is a grid unitiSince the actual evaporation amount cannot be predicted, the embodiment adopts curve pairsAET i /P i Is to perform an approximate estimation of the value of (c),R i is a grid unitiIs of the dryness of (2)The index is dimensionless and can be calculated from the potential evapotranspiration and rainfall;w i is an empirical parameter, and can be calculated from the available water content of vegetation and annual rainfall;Zthe zhang coefficient is an empirical constant and represents the parameter of the seasonal rainfall distribution and the rainfall depth;AEC i is a grid unitiIs a vegetation availability moisture content;k i is a grid unitiAn influencing factor of the transpiration of the upper specific land utilization/coating type;ET oi is a grid unitiThe evapotranspiration of the reference crops;AWC i the available water content for vegetation is determined by the soil texture and the effective soil depth, and is used for determining the total water amount stored and provided by the soil for plant growth;MSD i 、RD i respectively grid unitsiIs a soil texture and an effective soil depth;PAWC i is a grid unitiIs effective in water content of soil plants.
(3) Soil conservation
In this embodiment, soil conservation is characterized by the ability of the vegetation itself to reduce water and soil loss. During calculation, the potential soil erosion amount, the potential sand production amount, the real erosion amount and the real sand production amount are calculated according to the topography, the precipitation amount and other factors of the research area, and the calculated difference value is used as a soil maintenance quantized value. The specific formula is as follows:
（9）
In the method, in the process of the invention,irepresent the firstiThe number of cells of the grid is,Q sri representing grid cellsiIs a soil holding amount of (a);Q se_pi representing grid cellsiIs a potential water and soil loss amount;Q se_ai representing grid cellsiIs the actual water and soil loss amount;Ra i is a grid unitiRainfall erosion force factor of (2);K i is a grid unitiSoil corrosiveness factor of (2);L i is a grid netUnit celliIs a slope length factor of (2);S i is a grid unitiSlope factor of (c);C i is a grid unitiIs characterized by a vegetation cover factor of (1),Pa i is a grid unitiIs a water and soil conservation measure factor.
(4) Nutrient circulation
The water quality purifying module in the InVEST model is used for evaluating water quality purifying services of vegetation and soil in an ecological system, and mainly utilizes the mechanism that the vegetation and the soil can remove or reduce nutrient salt pollutants in runoff in a storage and conversion mode and the like so as to achieve the effect of purifying water quality. The model ignores other pollution sources, only considers TN and TP in non-point source pollution, and the higher the output of the TN and TP is, the lower the water quality purification service is. After the nutrient (TN, TP) output is obtained, the nutrient retention (cut-off) is calculated based on the efficiency of the removal of contaminants for each land use/coating type.
(5) Total primary productivity NPP
NPP refers to the amount of photosynthetic product or total organic carbon immobilized by an organism through a photosynthetic pathway per unit time. In this example, the NPP data is derived from MOD1T7A3HGF, a MOD 8 product of the national aerospace agency, having a spatial resolution of 500 m and a temporal resolution of 1 a in the range of 2000-2020.
And calculating the difference between the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the change grid unit set in the history basal period and the ecosystem service value of the history termination period according to the steps to obtain an ecosystem service increasing and decreasing value so as to clarify the damage of the ecosystem service function caused by various land utilization changes.
Illustratively, the year 2000 and year 2020 ecosystem service difference values are obtained by extracting the year 2000-2020 land use change grid, and then extracting the year 2000 and year 2020 ecosystem service values. The correlation formula is as follows:
ES c =ES 2020 -ES 2000 （10）
in the method, in the process of the invention,ES c representing the damage of the service value of the ecosystem caused by the land utilization change in the year 2000-2020 whenES c When the cost is less than 0, the land utilization change is assumed to bring risks to the ecological system service;ES 2000 、ES 2020 the service value of the ecological system is 2000 and 2020 respectively.
Illustratively, the present embodiment may include the steps of:
step two, acquiring historical data of the land use in 2000-2020, drawing a time-space change characteristic diagram of the land use in 2000-2020, and extracting a land use change grid in 2000-2020.
Step one, carrying out key ecosystem service estimation based on land utilization change history data, wherein the method comprises the following steps: estimation of carbon reserves, water production, soil conservation, nutrient circulation, total primary productivity. And simulate the possibility of change of different land use types in 2020-2035 by using an LCM model, and draw a possibility distribution map of change of different land use types in 2020-2035, wherein the map comprises a plurality of sub-maps, and each sub-map corresponds to the possibility of one land type transfer, such as the possibility of change of farmland-woodland, the possibility of change of farmland-grassland, the possibility of change of farmland-cultivated land, the possibility of change of farmland-grassland, the possibility of change of grassland-cultivated land and the like in 2020-2035. It should be noted that the probability of land use change is essentially the probability of transition, with a value in the range of [0,1].
And thirdly, calculating the service value of the ecosystem in 2000 and 2020 respectively, preferably, calculating the service standard value of the key ecosystem first, then calculating the service standard value of the ecosystem, and taking the service standard value of the ecosystem as the service value of the ecosystem. On the basis, the service function of the ecological system in 2000-2020 and the change diagram thereof are drawn, the map consists of a plurality of subgraphs, the total quantity of the ecological system service in each period corresponds to one subgraph, and the change diagram of the service function of the ecological system in 2000-2020 intuitively reflects the space change rule of the service value of the ecological system in 2000-2020.
And step four, obtaining the ecosystem service difference values in 2000 and 2020, and drawing a land use transfer type ecosystem service increase and decrease spatial distribution map, wherein the map also comprises a plurality of sub-maps, and each sub-map corresponds to one transfer type, such as farmland-woodland, woodland-farmland, woodland-grassland and the like. When the ecosystem service is reduced, i.e., the difference is less than 0, the land use change is considered to cause an ecological risk, and the difference is referred to as an ecosystem service loss.
And fifthly, quantitatively evaluating the ecological risk of the period to be evaluated (for example, 2035), namely constructing an ecological risk index of land use change based on the possibility and hazard angle, quantitatively evaluating the ecological risk of the land use change, and drawing an ecological risk spatial distribution diagram caused by the land use change based on the ecological risk index.
Step six, obtaining regional ecological risk difference indexes by adopting a dispersion coefficient method on the basis of the step five, representing the probability of ecological risks by using the service loss area occupation ratio of each land type ecological system, representing the risk loss amount by using the unit ecological risk difference indexes of the ecological risks, and further constructing an ecological risk comprehensive index based on ecological risk change ERCI。
Step seven, a natural breakpoint method is adopted to divide the ecological risk comprehensive index into a plurality of ecological risk levels, for example, 5 ecological risk levels, including: low ecological risk, medium-low ecological risk, medium-high ecological risk and high ecological risk, and drawing a Chinese ecological risk partition map.
In summary, in the embodiment of the application, based on the risk assessment framework, a new land utilization change possibility and a new ecological risk partition method for land utilization change are provided from the angles of risk possibility and hazard.
According to the method, by means of a classical framework in the disaster risk assessment field, based on land utilization data in 2000-2020 and ecosystem service functions of 5 key ecosystem regulation services, a 1km multiplied by 1km China land utilization ecological risk level diagram is drawn, an ecological risk comprehensive index based on ecological risk change is constructed, an ecological risk area is identified, a China ecological risk partition diagram is drawn, and the importance of the ecological risk level is determined.
It should be understood that the research framework provided by the embodiment of the application can also be applied to other important ecological functional areas, areas for evaluating ecological effects of land utilization changes and the like. Meanwhile, different risk plans can be set by combining the actual situations of places according to the characteristics of different risk areas through the risk partition grades.
Exemplary System
An embodiment of the present application provides a system for land use variable ecological risk partition, as shown in fig. 2, the system includes: risk index calculation section 201, risk difference index calculation section 202, risk probability calculation section 203, and comprehensive index calculation section 204.
A risk index calculation unit 201 configured to calculate an ecological risk index for each grid unit to be evaluated period according to an ecological system service loss for the evaluation base period and a land utilization change probability for the to-be-evaluated period; the evaluation base period is a period as a starting point of ecological risk evaluation, and the period to be evaluated is a target reporting period in need of ecological risk evaluation.
The risk difference index calculation unit 202 is configured to calculate a dispersion coefficient of the ecological risk index, and take the dispersion coefficient as the regional ecological risk difference index.
The risk probability calculation unit 203 is configured to calculate, based on the ecological system service loss, a ratio of an area of the ecological system service loss in the research area to a total area of the research area, and obtain a loss area ratio of the ecological system service function, where the loss area ratio is used to represent a probability of ecological risk in the period to be evaluated.
The comprehensive index calculation unit 204 is configured to perform product operation on the regional ecological risk difference value index and the probability of the ecological risk to obtain an ecological risk comprehensive index, partition the ecological risk of the research region in the period to be evaluated based on the ecological risk comprehensive index, and draw an ecological risk partition map.
The system for land use change ecological risk partition provided by the embodiment of the application can realize the steps and the flow of the method for land use change ecological risk partition provided by any embodiment, and achieve the same technical effects, and is not described in detail herein.
Exemplary apparatus
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device provided according to some embodiments of the present application; as shown in fig. 3, the electronic device includes:
one or more processors 301;
a computer readable medium, which may be configured to store one or more programs 302, the one or more processors 301, when executing the one or more programs 302, implement the steps of: according to the ecological system service loss of the evaluation base period and the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated, calculating the ecological risk index of each grid unit in the period to be evaluated; the evaluation base period is a period used as a starting point of ecological risk evaluation, and the period to be evaluated is a target report period required to be subjected to ecological risk evaluation; calculating a dispersion coefficient of the ecological risk index, and taking the dispersion coefficient as a regional ecological risk difference index; based on the service loss of the ecological system, counting the ratio of the area of the service loss of the ecological system in the research area to the total area of the research area, and obtaining the area ratio of the service function loss of the ecological system, wherein the area ratio of the service function loss of the ecological system is used for representing the probability of ecological risks in the period to be evaluated; and carrying out product operation on the regional ecological risk difference value index and the probability of the ecological risk to obtain an ecological risk comprehensive index, partitioning the ecological risk of the research region in the period to be evaluated based on the ecological risk comprehensive index, and drawing an ecological risk partition map.
FIG. 4 is a hardware architecture of an electronic device provided in accordance with some embodiments of the present application; as shown in fig. 4, the hardware structure of the electronic device may include: a processor 401, a communication interface 402, a computer readable medium 403 and a communication bus 404.
Wherein the processor 401, the communication interface 402, and the computer readable storage medium 403 perform communication with each other through the communication bus 404.
Alternatively, the communication interface 402 may be an interface of a communication module, such as an interface of a GSM module.
Wherein the processor 401 may be specifically configured to: according to the ecological system service loss of the evaluation base period and the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated, calculating the ecological risk index of each grid unit in the period to be evaluated; the evaluation base period is a period used as a starting point of ecological risk evaluation, and the period to be evaluated is a target report period required to be subjected to ecological risk evaluation; calculating a dispersion coefficient of the ecological risk index, and taking the dispersion coefficient as a regional ecological risk difference index; based on the service loss of the ecological system, counting the ratio of the area of the service loss of the ecological system in the research area to the total area of the research area, and obtaining the area ratio of the service function loss of the ecological system, wherein the area ratio of the service function loss of the ecological system is used for representing the probability of ecological risks in the period to be evaluated; and carrying out product operation on the regional ecological risk difference value index and the probability of the ecological risk to obtain an ecological risk comprehensive index, partitioning the ecological risk of the research region in the period to be evaluated based on the ecological risk comprehensive index, and drawing an ecological risk partition map.
The processor 401 may be a general purpose processor including a central processing unit (central processing unit, CPU for short), a network processor (Network Processor, NP for short), etc., and may also be a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), an off-the-shelf programmable gate array (FPGA) or other programmable logic device, discrete gate or transistor logic device, discrete hardware components. The disclosed methods, steps, and logic blocks in the embodiments of the present application may be implemented or performed. A general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like.
The electronic device of the embodiments of the present application exist in a variety of forms including, but not limited to:
(1) A mobile communication device: such devices are characterized by mobile communication capabilities and are primarily aimed at providing voice, data communications. Such terminals include: smart phones (e.g., iPhone), multimedia phones, functional phones, and low-end phones, etc.
(2) Ultra mobile personal computer device: such devices are in the category of personal computers, having computing and processing functions, and generally also having mobile internet access characteristics. Such terminals include: PDA, MID, and UMPC devices, etc., such as iPad.
(3) Portable entertainment device: such devices may display and play multimedia content. The device comprises: audio, video players (e.g., iPod), palm game consoles, electronic books, and smart toys and portable car navigation devices.
(4) And (3) a server: the configuration of the server includes a processor, a hard disk, a memory, a system bus, and the like, and the server is similar to a general computer architecture, but is required to provide highly reliable services, and thus has high requirements in terms of processing capacity, stability, reliability, security, scalability, manageability, and the like.
(5) Other electronic devices with data interaction function.
It should be noted that, according to implementation requirements, each component/step described in the embodiments of the present application may be split into more components/steps, and two or more components/steps or part of operations of the components/steps may be combined into new components/steps, so as to achieve the purposes of the embodiments of the present application.
The above-described methods according to embodiments of the present application may be implemented in hardware, firmware, or as software or computer code storable in a recording medium such as a CD ROM, RAM, floppy disk, hard disk, or magneto-optical disk, or as computer code originally stored in a remote recording medium or a non-transitory machine storage medium and to be stored in a local recording medium downloaded through a network, so that the methods described herein may be stored on such software processes on a recording medium using a general purpose computer, a special purpose processor, or programmable or dedicated hardware such as an ASIC or FPGA. It is understood that a computer, processor, microprocessor controller, or programmable hardware includes a memory component (e.g., RAM, ROM, flash memory, etc.) that can store or receive software or computer code that, when accessed and executed by the computer, processor, or hardware, implements the methods described herein for land use changing ecological risk zones. Furthermore, when a general purpose computer accesses code for implementing the methods illustrated herein, execution of the code converts the general purpose computer into a special purpose computer for performing the methods illustrated herein.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the elements and method steps of the examples described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented as electronic hardware, or as a combination of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and constraints imposed on the solution. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the embodiments of the present application.
It should be noted that, in the present specification, each embodiment is described in a progressive manner, and identical and similar parts of each embodiment are all referred to each other, and each embodiment is mainly described in a different point from other embodiments. In particular, for the apparatus and system embodiments, since they are substantially similar to the method embodiments, the description is relatively simple, with reference to the description of the method embodiments in part.
The above-described apparatus and system embodiments are merely illustrative, in which elements illustrated as separate elements may or may not be physically separate, and elements illustrated as elements may or may not be physical elements, may be located in one place, or may be distributed over a plurality of network elements. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment. Those of ordinary skill in the art will understand and implement the present invention without undue burden.
The foregoing description is only of the preferred embodiments of the present application and is not intended to limit the same, but rather, various modifications and variations may be made by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present application should be included in the protection scope of the present application.
Claims (7)
1. A method for land use changing ecological risk zones, comprising:
according to the ecological system service loss of the evaluation base period and the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated, calculating the ecological risk index of each grid unit in the period to be evaluated; the evaluation base period is a period serving as a starting point of ecological risk evaluation, and the period to be evaluated is a target reporting period in need of ecological risk evaluation;
calculating a dispersion coefficient of the ecological risk index, and taking the dispersion coefficient as a regional ecological risk difference index;
based on the ecological system service loss, counting the ratio of the area of the ecological system service loss in the research area to the total area of the research area, and obtaining the area ratio of the ecological system service function loss, wherein the area ratio of the ecological system service function loss is used for representing the probability of ecological risks in the period to be evaluated;
Performing product operation on the regional ecological risk difference value index and the probability of the ecological risk to obtain an ecological risk comprehensive index, partitioning the ecological risk of the research region in the period to be evaluated based on the ecological risk comprehensive index, and drawing an ecological risk partition map;
before calculating the ecological risk index of each grid unit to be evaluated, the method further comprises the following steps:
gridding a research area;
acquiring land utilization change history data; the land use change history data comprises land use data of a history base period and land use data of a history end period; taking the historical expiration period as the evaluation base period;
simulating the land utilization change scene of the period to be evaluated by utilizing the land utilization change history data to obtain the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated;
calculating the difference of the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the historical base period and the historical end period based on the land utilization change historical data so as to obtain the ecosystem service loss of the estimated base period;
calculating a difference between the ecosystem service value of each grid cell in the historical base period and the historical end period based on the land utilization change history data to obtain an ecosystem service loss in the estimated base period, comprising:
Extracting grid units with changed land utilization types between a historical base period and a historical termination period to obtain a changed grid unit set;
respectively calculating the ecological system service value of each grid unit in the change grid unit set in the history basal period and the ecological system service value of each grid unit in the history termination period;
calculating the difference between the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the change grid unit set in the history basal period and the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history termination period based on the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history basal period and the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history termination period to obtain an ecosystem service increment and decrement value;
when the ecosystem service increasing and decreasing value is a negative number, the ecosystem service function of the grid unit is considered to be lost, and the ecosystem service increasing and decreasing value is taken as the value of the ecosystem service loss of the grid unit in the evaluation period;
simulating the land utilization change scene of the period to be evaluated by utilizing the land utilization change history data to obtain the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated, wherein the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated is specifically as follows:
based on land utilization data of a historical base period and land utilization data of a historical termination period, simulating land utilization change scenes of a period to be evaluated by using a land utilization change LCM model to obtain scene simulation results;
Determining sensitivity of transitions between land categories in the land use data using a land use change sensitivity module of the LCM model;
and generating a land utilization change sensitivity graph by adopting a land utilization change potential submodel, and obtaining land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated by utilizing Markov chain prediction.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the grid cells with the land use type changed between the history base period and the history end period are extracted to obtain a changed grid cell set, specifically:
and extracting all grid units with land utilization change probability larger than a preset probability threshold value in the to-be-evaluated period in the research area to obtain a change grid unit set.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the ecosystem service value is calculated from a sum of a plurality of key ecosystem service value amounts, the key ecosystem service value amounts comprising: carbon reserves, water production, soil conservation, nutrient circulation, net primary productivity.
4. The method of claim 3, further comprising, prior to calculating the ecosystem service value from the sum of the plurality of key ecosystem service value amounts: and (3) standardizing the key ecosystem service to obtain a key ecosystem service standard value, calculating the ecosystem service standard value according to the key ecosystem service standard value, and taking the ecosystem service standard value as the ecosystem service value.
5. A system for land use changing ecological risk zones, comprising:
the risk index calculating unit is configured to calculate an ecological risk index of each grid unit in the period to be evaluated according to the ecological system service loss of the evaluation base period and the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated; the evaluation base period is a period serving as a starting point of ecological risk evaluation, and the period to be evaluated is a target reporting period in need of ecological risk evaluation;
a risk difference value index calculation unit configured to calculate a dispersion coefficient of the ecological risk index, and take the dispersion coefficient as a regional ecological risk difference value index;
the risk probability calculation unit is configured to calculate the ratio of the area of the ecological system service loss to the total area of the research area based on the ecological system service loss, and obtain the area ratio of the ecological system service function loss, wherein the area ratio of the ecological system service function loss is used for representing the probability of ecological risks in the period to be evaluated;
the comprehensive index calculation unit is configured to perform product operation on the regional ecological risk difference value index and the probability of the ecological risk to obtain an ecological risk comprehensive index, partition the ecological risk of the research region in the period to be evaluated based on the ecological risk comprehensive index, and draw an ecological risk partition map;
Before calculating the ecological risk index of each grid unit to be evaluated, the method further comprises the following steps:
gridding a research area;
acquiring land utilization change history data; the land use change history data comprises land use data of a history base period and land use data of a history end period; taking the historical expiration period as the evaluation base period;
simulating the land utilization change scene of the period to be evaluated by utilizing the land utilization change history data to obtain the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated;
calculating the difference of the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the historical base period and the historical end period based on the land utilization change historical data so as to obtain the ecosystem service loss of the estimated base period;
calculating a difference between the ecosystem service value of each grid cell in the historical base period and the historical end period based on the land utilization change history data to obtain an ecosystem service loss in the estimated base period, comprising:
extracting grid units with changed land utilization types between a historical base period and a historical termination period to obtain a changed grid unit set;
respectively calculating the ecological system service value of each grid unit in the change grid unit set in the history basal period and the ecological system service value of each grid unit in the history termination period;
Calculating the difference between the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the change grid unit set in the history basal period and the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history termination period based on the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history basal period and the ecosystem service value of each grid unit in the history termination period to obtain an ecosystem service increment and decrement value;
when the ecosystem service increasing and decreasing value is a negative number, the ecosystem service function of the grid unit is considered to be lost, and the ecosystem service increasing and decreasing value is taken as the value of the ecosystem service loss of the grid unit in the evaluation period;
simulating the land utilization change scene of the period to be evaluated by utilizing the land utilization change history data to obtain the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated, wherein the land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated is specifically as follows:
based on land utilization data of a historical base period and land utilization data of a historical termination period, simulating land utilization change scenes of a period to be evaluated by using a land utilization change LCM model to obtain scene simulation results;
determining sensitivity of transitions between land categories in the land use data using a land use change sensitivity module of the LCM model;
and generating a land utilization change sensitivity graph by adopting a land utilization change potential submodel, and obtaining land utilization change probability of the period to be evaluated by utilizing Markov chain prediction.
6. A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the method of any of claims 1-4.
7. An electronic device, comprising: memory, a processor, and a program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the method according to any one of claims 1 to 4 when executing the program.
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