CN117235901B - Risk assessment method for satellite influenced by space environment - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of satellite operation monitoring, in particular to a risk assessment method for satellite affected by space environment.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of satellite operation monitoring, in particular to a risk assessment method for a satellite affected by space environment.
Background
In space, various celestial bodies radiate electromagnetic waves outwards, a plurality of celestial bodies radiate high-energy particles outwards to form cosmic rays, such as solar electromagnetic radiation, solar cosmic ray radiation and solar wind, wherein the solar cosmic ray radiation is the high-energy particles outwards emitted by the sun when flare burst occurs, the solar wind is high-energy plasma flow blown out by corona, and the space environments cause a lot of interference on the operation of satellites, so that the flight risk of the satellites is increased;
however, in the prior art, whether a single analysis satellite is affected by space environment is not favorable for the flight management of the satellite, so that the degree of the influence of the space environment and the data transmission delay condition cannot be combined for analysis, the analysis result is overlarge, the management effect of the satellite is reduced, the influence of the space environment cannot be effectively and pointedly prevented, the flight safety and stability of the satellite are further reduced, and the effectiveness of data acquisition cannot be monitored;
in view of the above technical drawbacks, a solution is now proposed.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a risk assessment method for satellite influence by space environment, which solves the technical defects, and the invention collects the environmental influence data of the satellite, carries out operation environment interference risk assessment operation on the environmental influence data, knows the influence condition of the environmental data on the satellite so as to make reasonable adjustment, reduce the influence of the satellite, and is beneficial to improving the performance and operation safety of the satellite, and carries out trend prevention assessment analysis in a progressive analysis mode so as to judge whether the change trend of the environmental influence assessment value is too large for the satellite operation influence risk or not, so as to make reasonable adjustment on the satellite management decision, improve the satellite operation stability and management and control force, and carry out reasonable space environment protection management matching in combination with the data transmission delay condition, thereby being beneficial to improving the accuracy of analysis results, further being beneficial to making reasonable and targeted adjustment according to different management grades, ensuring the safety and stability of the satellite operation, and reducing the influence of the environment on the satellite.
The aim of the invention can be achieved by the following technical scheme: a method for risk assessment of a satellite affected by a space environment, comprising the steps of:
step one: acquiring environmental impact data of a satellite in space, performing operation environment interference risk assessment operation on the environmental impact data, knowing the impact condition of the environmental data on the satellite, if a normal instruction is obtained, performing trend prevention assessment analysis so as to adjust management decision in time to prevent the space environment impact, and entering a step II, if a risk instruction is obtained, entering a step IV, and performing early warning operation;
step two: acquiring state data and transmission data of a data acquisition sensor, analyzing the state data, performing operation safety assessment operation, if an operation instruction is obtained, entering a step III, and if an early warning instruction is obtained, performing early warning operation, thereby being beneficial to improving the effectiveness of the data;
step three: the transmission delay risk analysis is carried out on the transmission data in an information feedback mode so as to know the overall operation condition of the data acquisition sensor, the data transmission timeliness is improved, and if a delay instruction is obtained, the step four is carried out;
step four: and carrying out protection management matching analysis according to the obtained risk instruction and delay instruction so as to carry out reasonable environment protection management matching by combining the data transmission delay condition, thereby reducing the influence risk of space environment on satellites.
Preferably, the operation procedure of the running environment interference risk assessment is as follows:
collecting the time length of a satellite running for a period of time, marking a time threshold value, dividing the time threshold value into i sub-time periods, wherein i is a natural number larger than zero, acquiring environmental impact data of the satellite in each sub-time period, wherein the environmental impact data comprises a charged particle concentration mean value, a thermal radiation floating risk value and an electromagnetic interference impact value, the thermal radiation floating risk value represents the difference value between the maximum wave peak value and the minimum wave peak value in a thermal radiation characteristic curve, the electromagnetic interference impact value represents the area surrounded by a line segment corresponding to the upper part of the preset electromagnetic interference value characteristic curve and the preset electromagnetic interference value characteristic curve, and the charged particle concentration mean value, the thermal radiation floating risk value and the electromagnetic interference impact value are respectively marked as DLi, RSi and DGi;
according to a formula, environment risk assessment coefficients Qi in each sub-time period are obtained, the number of sub-time periods is taken as an X axis, the environment risk assessment coefficients Qi are taken as a Y axis, a rectangular coordinate system is established, an environment risk assessment coefficient curve is drawn in a dot drawing mode, meanwhile, a preset environment risk assessment coefficient threshold curve is drawn in the coordinate system, the length corresponding to a line segment of the environment risk assessment coefficient curve above the preset environment risk assessment coefficient threshold curve is further obtained, a product value obtained after data normalization processing is carried out on the line segment above and the area surrounded by the preset environment risk assessment coefficient threshold curve is obtained, the product value is marked as an environment influence assessment value, and the environment influence assessment value is compared with a preset environment influence assessment value threshold recorded and stored in the environment influence assessment value.
If the ratio between the environmental impact evaluation value and the preset environmental impact evaluation value threshold is greater than 1, generating a risk instruction;
and if the ratio between the environmental impact evaluation value and the preset environmental impact evaluation value threshold is smaller than or equal to 1, generating a normal instruction.
Preferably, the trend prevention evaluation analysis process is as follows:
acquiring environment influence evaluation values in k time thresholds of history, wherein k is a natural number larger than zero, acquiring environment influence evaluation values in g time thresholds at the same time, g is a natural number larger than zero, constructing a set A of all environment influence evaluation values, constructing a rectangular coordinate system by taking the number of subsets in the set A as an X axis and the environment influence evaluation values as a Y axis, drawing an environment influence evaluation value curve in a dot drawing manner, acquiring the lengths of line segments corresponding to all ascending segments from the environment influence evaluation value curve, normalizing the obtained ratio with the total length of all line segments in the environment influence evaluation value curve by data, and marking the ratio as an influence trend evaluation coefficient;
comparing the influence trend evaluation coefficient with a preset influence trend evaluation coefficient threshold value recorded and stored in the influence trend evaluation coefficient to analyze the influence trend evaluation coefficient:
if the influence trend evaluation coefficient is smaller than a preset influence trend evaluation coefficient threshold value, no signal is generated;
if the influence trend evaluation coefficient is greater than or equal to the preset influence trend evaluation coefficient threshold value, generating a feedback instruction, and when the feedback instruction is generated, immediately displaying preset early warning characters corresponding to the feedback instruction by the display panel.
Preferably, the operation process of the operation safety assessment is as follows:
s1: acquiring operation characteristic values of the data acquisition sensors in each sub-time period, wherein the operation characteristic values represent the number of the operation parameter information, the number of which corresponds to the operation parameter information exceeds a preset threshold value, the operation parameter information comprises an operation current average value, an operation current fluctuation risk value and an abnormal sound average value, the operation current fluctuation risk value represents the number of the operation current fluctuation floating values which exceed the preset operation current fluctuation floating value threshold value in fluctuation times, the operation characteristic values are compared with the stored preset operation characteristic value threshold value for analysis, and if the operation characteristic values are larger than the preset operation characteristic value threshold value, the operation characteristic values are larger than the number of sub-time periods corresponding to the preset operation characteristic value threshold value, and the sub-time periods are marked as characteristic evaluation values;
s2: obtaining the internal and external influence values of the data acquisition sensor in each sub-time period, wherein the internal and external influence values represent product values obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on the part of the running temperature average value exceeding the preset running temperature average value threshold and the heat radiation average value, further obtaining the maximum value and the minimum value of the internal and external influence values, marking the difference value between the maximum value and the minimum value of the internal and external influence values as an interference risk value, and comparing the characteristic evaluation value and the interference risk value with the preset characteristic evaluation value threshold and the preset interference risk value threshold which are recorded and stored in the characteristic evaluation value and the interference risk value:
if the feature evaluation value is smaller than the preset feature evaluation value threshold and the interference risk value is smaller than the preset interference risk value threshold, generating an operation instruction;
if the feature evaluation value is greater than or equal to a preset feature evaluation value threshold or the interference risk value is greater than or equal to a preset interference risk value threshold, generating an early warning instruction, and when the early warning instruction is generated, immediately displaying preset early warning characters corresponding to the early warning instruction by a display panel.
Preferably, the transmission delay risk analysis process is as follows:
t1: acquiring line interference values of the data acquisition sensor transmission lines in each sub-time period, wherein the line interference values represent product values obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on the part of the damaged area of the line port exceeding a preset damaged area threshold and the line transmission electromagnetic frequency, and meanwhile acquiring delay risk values of the data acquisition sensor transmission lines in each sub-time period, and the delay risk values represent the part of the product values obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on the transmission time length average value and the transmission distance exceeding a preset threshold;
t2: establishing a rectangular coordinate system by taking the number of sub-time periods as an X axis and taking a line interference value and a delay risk value as a Y axis respectively, drawing a line interference value curve and a delay risk value curve respectively in a dot drawing mode, further respectively obtaining a line interference trend change value and a delay risk trend change value from the line interference value curve and the delay risk value curve, respectively marking the line interference trend change value and the delay risk trend change value as an interference trend value and a delay trend value, simultaneously obtaining a characteristic evaluation value and an interference risk value in a time threshold, and respectively marking the interference trend value, the delay trend value, the characteristic evaluation value and the interference risk value as TQ, YW, TP and GR;
t3: according to the formulaObtaining effective transmission evaluation coefficients, wherein f1, f2, f3 and f4 are preset weight factor coefficients of an interference trend value, a delay trend value, a characteristic evaluation value and an interference risk value respectively, f1, f2, f3 and f4 are positive numbers larger than zero, f5 is a preset fault tolerance factor coefficient, the value is 1.862, W is the effective transmission evaluation coefficient, and the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W is compared with a preset effective transmission evaluation coefficient threshold value recorded and stored in the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W:
if the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W is smaller than or equal to a preset effective transmission evaluation coefficient threshold value, no signal is generated;
and if the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W is larger than a preset effective transmission evaluation coefficient threshold value, generating a delay instruction.
Preferably, the protection management matching analysis process is as follows:
acquiring an effective transmission evaluation coefficient W corresponding to a delay instruction in a time threshold and an environmental impact evaluation value corresponding to a risk instruction, further respectively acquiring a part of the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W larger than a preset effective transmission evaluation coefficient threshold and a part of the environmental impact evaluation value larger than a preset environmental impact evaluation value threshold, respectively marking the parts as a management delay value and a risk management value, marking a product value obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on the management delay value and the risk management value as a matching regulation value, and comparing the matching regulation value with a preset matching regulation value interval recorded and stored in the matching regulation value:
if the matching regulation value is larger than the maximum value in the preset matching regulation value interval, generating a first-level management instruction;
if the matched regulating value belongs to a preset matched regulating value interval, generating a secondary management instruction;
and if the matched regulating value is smaller than the minimum value in the preset matched regulating value interval, generating a three-level management instruction.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows:
(1) According to the invention, the satellite is subjected to space environment influence data, and the operation environment interference risk assessment operation is carried out on the environment influence data, so that the influence condition of the environment data on the satellite is known, the influence on the satellite is reduced, the satellite performance and the operation safety are improved, trend prevention assessment analysis is carried out in a progressive analysis mode, whether the change trend of the environment influence assessment value is too large on the satellite operation influence risk is judged, so that the satellite management decision is reasonably adjusted, the satellite operation stability and the management and control force are improved, the operation safety assessment operation is carried out on the state data in an information feedback mode, the data acquisition sensor is managed and maintained, the operation supervision effect of the data acquisition sensor is improved, and the operation safety of the data acquisition sensor is ensured;
(2) Under the premise of normal operation of the sensor, transmission delay risk analysis is carried out on transmission data so as to know the overall operation condition of the data acquisition sensor, data support is improved for subsequent management, and reasonable space environment protection management matching is carried out by integrating and utilizing the data and combining the data transmission delay condition, so that accuracy of analysis results is improved, reasonable and targeted adjustment is facilitated according to different management levels, safety and stability of satellite operation are guaranteed, and influence risk of space environment on satellites is reduced.
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The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings;
FIG. 1 is a diagram of a reference analysis of the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Embodiment one:
referring to fig. 1, the invention is a risk assessment method for satellite affected by space environment, comprising the following steps:
step one: acquiring environmental impact data of a satellite in space, performing operation environment interference risk assessment operation on the environmental impact data, knowing the impact condition of the environmental data on the satellite, if a normal instruction is obtained, performing trend prevention assessment analysis so as to adjust management decision in time to prevent the space environment impact, and entering a step II, if a risk instruction is obtained, entering a step IV, and performing early warning operation;
step two: acquiring state data and transmission data of a data acquisition sensor, analyzing the state data, performing operation safety assessment operation, if an operation instruction is obtained, entering a step III, and if an early warning instruction is obtained, performing early warning operation, thereby being beneficial to improving the effectiveness of the data;
step three: the transmission delay risk analysis is carried out on the transmission data in an information feedback mode so as to know the overall operation condition of the data acquisition sensor, the data transmission timeliness is improved, and if a delay instruction is obtained, the step four is carried out;
step four: performing protection management matching analysis according to the obtained risk instruction and delay instruction so as to perform reasonable environment protection management matching by combining the data transmission delay condition, thereby reducing the influence risk of space environment on satellites;
the specific operation process of the running environment interference risk assessment is as follows:
collecting the time length of a satellite running for a period of time, marking a time threshold value, dividing the time threshold value into i sub-time periods, wherein i is a natural number larger than zero, acquiring environment influence data of the satellite in each sub-time period, wherein the environment influence data comprise a charged particle concentration mean value, a thermal radiation floating risk value, an electromagnetic interference influence value and the like, the thermal radiation floating risk value represents the difference value between the maximum wave peak value and the minimum wave peak value in a thermal radiation characteristic curve, the electromagnetic interference influence value represents the area surrounded by a line segment corresponding to the electromagnetic interference value characteristic curve above the preset electromagnetic interference value characteristic curve and the preset electromagnetic interference value characteristic curve, and the charged particle concentration mean value, the thermal radiation floating risk value and the electromagnetic interference influence value are respectively marked as DLi, RSi and DGi;
according to the formulaObtaining environmental risk assessment coefficients in each sub-time period, wherein a1, a2 and a3 are preset scale factor coefficients of charged particle concentration mean value, thermal radiation floating risk value and electromagnetic interference influence value respectively, a1, a2 and a3 are positive numbers larger than zero, the scale factor coefficients are used for correcting deviation of each parameter in the formula calculation process, so that the calculation result is more accurate, a4 is a preset correction factor coefficient, the value is 1.128, qi is the environmental risk assessment coefficient in each sub-time period, and the number of sub-time periods is XThe method comprises the steps of establishing a rectangular coordinate system by taking an environmental risk assessment coefficient Qi as a Y axis, drawing an environmental risk assessment coefficient curve in a dot drawing mode, drawing a preset environmental risk assessment coefficient threshold curve in the coordinate system, further obtaining the length corresponding to a line segment of the environmental risk assessment coefficient curve above the preset environmental risk assessment coefficient threshold curve, normalizing the length with the area enclosed by the upper line segment and the preset environmental risk assessment coefficient threshold curve, marking the product as an environmental impact assessment value, and comparing the environmental impact assessment value with a preset environmental impact assessment value threshold recorded and stored in the environmental impact assessment value:
if the ratio between the environmental impact evaluation value and the preset environmental impact evaluation value threshold is greater than 1, generating a risk instruction, and when the risk instruction is generated, immediately displaying preset early warning characters corresponding to the risk instruction by a display panel so as to intuitively know the influence condition of the satellite on the space environment, so that reasonable adjustment can be made, the influence on the satellite is reduced, and the performance and the operation safety of the satellite are improved;
if the ratio between the environmental impact evaluation value and the preset environmental impact evaluation value threshold is less than or equal to 1, generating a normal instruction, and when generating the normal instruction, performing trend prevention evaluation analysis to judge whether the change trend of the environmental impact evaluation value is too large for the satellite operation influence risk or not so as to make reasonable adjustment on the satellite management decision so as to improve the satellite operation stability and the management and control force, wherein the specific trend prevention evaluation analysis process is as follows:
acquiring environment influence evaluation values in k time thresholds of history, wherein k is a natural number larger than zero, acquiring environment influence evaluation values in g time thresholds at the same time, g is a natural number larger than zero, constructing a set A of all environment influence evaluation values, constructing a rectangular coordinate system by taking the number of subsets in the set A as an X axis and the environment influence evaluation values as a Y axis, drawing an environment influence evaluation value curve in a dot drawing manner, acquiring the lengths of line segments corresponding to all ascending segments from the environment influence evaluation value curve, normalizing the obtained ratio with the total length of all line segments in the environment influence evaluation value curve, and marking the ratio as an influence trend evaluation coefficient;
comparing the influence trend evaluation coefficient with a preset influence trend evaluation coefficient threshold value recorded and stored in the influence trend evaluation coefficient to analyze the influence trend evaluation coefficient:
if the influence trend evaluation coefficient is smaller than a preset influence trend evaluation coefficient threshold value, no signal is generated;
if the influence trend evaluation coefficient is greater than or equal to the preset influence trend evaluation coefficient threshold value, generating a feedback instruction, when the feedback instruction is generated, immediately displaying preset early warning characters corresponding to the feedback instruction by the display panel so as to reasonably adjust satellite management decisions, improve satellite operation stability and control strength,
embodiment two:
when a normal instruction is generated, collecting state data and transmission data of the data collecting sensor, wherein the state data comprises an operation characteristic value and an internal and external influence value, the transmission data comprises a line interference value and a delay risk value, and the state data and the transmission data are analyzed to perform operation safety assessment operation and transmission delay risk analysis, so that on one hand, the operation supervision effect of the data collecting sensor is improved, on the other hand, the effectiveness and the transmission timeliness of the collected data are guaranteed, and the specific operation safety assessment operation process is as follows:
acquiring operation characteristic values of the data acquisition sensors in each sub-time period, wherein the operation characteristic values represent the number of sub-time periods corresponding to the operation parameter information, the operation parameter information comprises an operation current mean value, an operation current fluctuation risk value, an abnormal noise mean value and the like, the operation current fluctuation risk value represents the number corresponding to the operation current fluctuation floating value exceeding a preset operation current fluctuation floating value threshold in fluctuation times, the operation characteristic values are compared with a stored preset operation characteristic value threshold, if the operation characteristic values are larger than the preset operation characteristic value threshold, the operation characteristic values are larger than the number of sub-time periods corresponding to the preset operation characteristic value threshold, and the operation characteristic values are marked as characteristic evaluation values;
obtaining the internal and external influence values of the data acquisition sensor in each sub-time period, wherein the internal and external influence values represent product values obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on the part of the running temperature average value exceeding the preset running temperature average value threshold and the heat radiation average value, further obtaining the maximum value and the minimum value of the internal and external influence values, marking the difference value between the maximum value and the minimum value of the internal and external influence values as an interference risk value, and the larger the value corresponding to the interference risk value is, the larger the abnormal running risk of the data acquisition sensor is;
comparing the characteristic evaluation value and the interference risk value with a preset characteristic evaluation value threshold value and a preset interference risk value threshold value which are recorded and stored in the characteristic evaluation value and the interference risk value respectively, and analyzing the characteristic evaluation value and the interference risk value:
if the feature evaluation value is smaller than the preset feature evaluation value threshold and the interference risk value is smaller than the preset interference risk value threshold, generating an operation instruction;
if the feature evaluation value is greater than or equal to a preset feature evaluation value threshold or the interference risk value is greater than or equal to a preset interference risk value threshold, generating an early warning instruction, and when the early warning instruction is generated, immediately displaying preset early warning characters corresponding to the early warning instruction by a display panel so as to manage and maintain the data acquisition sensor, thereby being beneficial to improving the operation supervision effect of the data acquisition sensor and ensuring the operation safety of the data acquisition sensor;
when an operation instruction is generated, transmission delay risk analysis is performed on transmission data so as to know the overall operation condition of the data acquisition sensor, and data support is improved for subsequent management, wherein the specific transmission delay risk analysis process is as follows:
acquiring line interference values of the data acquisition sensor transmission lines in each sub-time period, wherein the line interference values represent product values obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on the part of the damaged area of a line port exceeding a preset damaged area threshold and the line transmission electromagnetic frequency, and meanwhile acquiring delay risk values of the data acquisition sensor transmission lines in each sub-time period, wherein the delay risk values represent the part of the product values obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on a transmission time length mean value and a transmission distance exceeding a preset threshold, and it is required to be noted that the line interference values and the delay risk values are two influence parameters reflecting abnormal risks of data information transmission;
establishing a rectangular coordinate system by taking the number of sub-time periods as an X axis and taking a line interference value and a delay risk value as a Y axis respectively, drawing a line interference value curve and a delay risk value curve respectively in a dot drawing mode, further respectively obtaining a line interference trend change value and a delay risk trend change value from the line interference value curve and the delay risk value curve, respectively marking the line interference trend change value and the delay risk trend change value as an interference trend value and a delay trend value, simultaneously obtaining a characteristic evaluation value and an interference risk value in a time threshold, and respectively marking the interference trend value, the delay trend value, the characteristic evaluation value and the interference risk value as TQ, YW, TP and GR;
according to the formulaObtaining effective transmission evaluation coefficients, wherein f1, f2, f3 and f4 are preset weight factor coefficients of an interference trend value, a delay trend value, a characteristic evaluation value and an interference risk value respectively, f1, f2, f3 and f4 are positive numbers larger than zero, f5 is a preset fault tolerance factor coefficient, the value is 1.862, W is the effective transmission evaluation coefficient, and the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W is compared with a preset effective transmission evaluation coefficient threshold value recorded and stored in the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W:
if the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W is smaller than or equal to a preset effective transmission evaluation coefficient threshold value, no signal is generated;
if the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W is larger than a preset effective transmission evaluation coefficient threshold value, generating a delay instruction;
performing protection management matching analysis according to the obtained risk instruction and delay instruction so as to perform reasonable environment protection management matching by combining the data transmission delay condition, thereby reducing the influence risk of space environment on satellites, wherein the specific protection management matching analysis process is as follows:
acquiring an effective transmission evaluation coefficient W corresponding to a delay instruction in a time threshold and an environmental impact evaluation value corresponding to a risk instruction, further respectively acquiring a part of the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W larger than a preset effective transmission evaluation coefficient threshold and a part of the environmental impact evaluation value larger than a preset environmental impact evaluation value threshold, respectively marking the parts as a management delay value and a risk management value, marking a product value obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on the management delay value and the risk management value as a matching regulation value, and comparing the matching regulation value with a preset matching regulation value interval recorded and stored in the matching regulation value:
if the matching regulation value is larger than the maximum value in the preset matching regulation value interval, generating a first-level management instruction;
if the matched regulating value belongs to a preset matched regulating value interval, generating a secondary management instruction;
if the matching regulation value is smaller than the minimum value in the preset matching regulation value interval, generating a three-level management instruction, wherein the management degrees corresponding to the first-level management instruction, the second-level management instruction and the three-level management instruction are sequentially reduced, and when the first-level management instruction, the second-level management instruction and the three-level management instruction are generated, respectively displaying preset early warning characters corresponding to the first-level management instruction, the second-level management instruction and the three-level management instruction on a display panel, so that reasonable and targeted adjustment is facilitated according to different management grades, the safety and the stability of satellite operation are ensured, reasonable environment protection management matching is conducted by combining data transmission delay conditions, the accuracy of analysis results is facilitated, and the influence risk of space environment on the satellite is reduced;
in summary, the invention collects the environmental impact data of the satellite under space, carries out operation environment interference risk assessment operation on the environmental impact data, knows the impact condition of the environmental data on the satellite so as to make reasonable adjustment, reduces the impact of the satellite, is beneficial to improving the performance and operation safety of the satellite, carries out trend prevention assessment analysis in a progressive analysis mode so as to judge whether the change trend of the environmental impact assessment value is too large on the satellite operation impact risk or not, so as to make reasonable adjustment on the satellite management decision, so as to improve the operation stability and management force of the satellite, carries out operation safety assessment operation on the state data in an information feedback mode so as to carry out management maintenance on the data acquisition sensor, is beneficial to improving the operation supervision effect of the data acquisition sensor, simultaneously ensures the operation safety of the data acquisition sensor, carries out transmission delay risk analysis on the transmission data on the premise of the normal operation of the sensor, so as to understand the whole operation condition of the data acquisition sensor, improves the data support for the subsequent management, carries out reasonable adjustment on the satellite operation risk by combining the data transmission environment protection condition, is beneficial to improving the accuracy of the data transmission environment management and is beneficial to improve the stability and reasonably matching the operation risk.
The size of the threshold is set for ease of comparison, and regarding the size of the threshold, the number of cardinalities is set for each set of sample data depending on how many sample data are and the person skilled in the art; as long as the proportional relation between the parameter and the quantized value is not affected.
The above formulas are all formulas obtained by collecting a large amount of data for software simulation and selecting a formula close to the true value, and coefficients in the formulas are set by a person skilled in the art according to practical situations, and the above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art is within the technical scope of the present invention, and the technical scheme and the inventive concept according to the present invention are equivalent to or changed and are all covered in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. A method for risk assessment of a satellite affected by a space environment, comprising the steps of:
step one: acquiring environmental impact data of a satellite in space, performing operation environment interference risk assessment operation on the environmental impact data, knowing the impact condition of the environmental data on the satellite, if a normal instruction is obtained, performing trend prevention assessment analysis so as to adjust management decision in time to prevent the space environment impact, and entering a step II, if a risk instruction is obtained, entering a step IV, and performing early warning operation;
step two: acquiring state data and transmission data of a data acquisition sensor, analyzing the state data, performing operation safety assessment operation, if an operation instruction is obtained, entering a step III, and if an early warning instruction is obtained, performing early warning operation, thereby being beneficial to improving the effectiveness of the data;
step three: the transmission delay risk analysis is carried out on the transmission data in an information feedback mode so as to know the overall operation condition of the data acquisition sensor, the data transmission timeliness is improved, and if a delay instruction is obtained, the step four is carried out;
step four: performing protection management matching analysis according to the obtained risk instruction and delay instruction so as to perform reasonable environment protection management matching by combining the data transmission delay condition, thereby reducing the influence risk of space environment on satellites;
the operation process of the running environment interference risk assessment is as follows:
collecting the time length of a satellite running for a period of time, marking a time threshold value, dividing the time threshold value into i sub-time periods, wherein i is a natural number larger than zero, acquiring environmental impact data of the satellite in each sub-time period, wherein the environmental impact data comprises a charged particle concentration mean value, a thermal radiation floating risk value and an electromagnetic interference impact value, the thermal radiation floating risk value represents the difference value between the maximum wave peak value and the minimum wave peak value in a thermal radiation characteristic curve, the electromagnetic interference impact value represents the area surrounded by a line segment corresponding to the upper part of the preset electromagnetic interference value characteristic curve and the preset electromagnetic interference value characteristic curve, and the charged particle concentration mean value, the thermal radiation floating risk value and the electromagnetic interference impact value are respectively marked as DLi, RSi and DGi;
according to the formulaObtaining an environmental risk assessment coefficient Qi in each sub-time period, wherein a1, a2 and a3 are respectively preset scale factor coefficients of a charged particle concentration mean value, a heat radiation floating risk value and an electromagnetic interference influence value, a1, a2 and a3 are positive numbers larger than zero, a4 is a preset correction factor coefficient, the value is 1.128, the number of sub-time periods is taken as an X axis, an rectangular coordinate system is established by taking the environmental risk assessment coefficient Qi as a Y axis, an environmental risk assessment coefficient curve is drawn in a description mode, meanwhile, a preset environmental risk assessment coefficient threshold curve is drawn in the coordinate system, the length corresponding to a line segment above the preset environmental risk assessment coefficient threshold curve is further obtained, the product value obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on the area enclosed by the upper line segment and the preset environmental risk assessment coefficient threshold curve is marked as an environmental influence assessment value, and the environmental influence assessment value is compared with a preset environmental influence assessment value threshold stored in the environment influence assessment value by the environment influence assessment value is input into the environment assessment value through description mode:
if the ratio between the environmental impact evaluation value and the preset environmental impact evaluation value threshold is greater than 1, generating a risk instruction;
if the ratio between the environmental impact evaluation value and the preset environmental impact evaluation value threshold is smaller than or equal to 1, generating a normal instruction;
the trend prevention evaluation analysis process is as follows:
acquiring environment influence evaluation values in k time thresholds of history, wherein k is a natural number larger than zero, acquiring environment influence evaluation values in g time thresholds at the same time, g is a natural number larger than zero, constructing a set A of all environment influence evaluation values, constructing a rectangular coordinate system by taking the number of subsets in the set A as an X axis and the environment influence evaluation values as a Y axis, drawing an environment influence evaluation value curve in a dot drawing manner, acquiring the lengths of line segments corresponding to all ascending segments from the environment influence evaluation value curve, normalizing the obtained ratio with the total length of all line segments in the environment influence evaluation value curve by data, and marking the ratio as an influence trend evaluation coefficient;
comparing the influence trend evaluation coefficient with a preset influence trend evaluation coefficient threshold value recorded and stored in the influence trend evaluation coefficient to analyze the influence trend evaluation coefficient:
if the influence trend evaluation coefficient is smaller than a preset influence trend evaluation coefficient threshold value, no signal is generated;
if the influence trend evaluation coefficient is greater than or equal to a preset influence trend evaluation coefficient threshold value, generating a feedback instruction, and when the feedback instruction is generated, immediately displaying preset early warning characters corresponding to the feedback instruction by a display panel;
the operation safety evaluation operation process is as follows:
s1: acquiring operation characteristic values of the data acquisition sensors in each sub-time period, wherein the operation characteristic values represent the number of the operation parameter information, the number of which corresponds to the operation parameter information exceeds a preset threshold value, the operation parameter information comprises an operation current average value, an operation current fluctuation risk value and an abnormal sound average value, the operation current fluctuation risk value represents the number of the operation current fluctuation floating values which exceed the preset operation current fluctuation floating value threshold value in fluctuation times, the operation characteristic values are compared with the stored preset operation characteristic value threshold value for analysis, and if the operation characteristic values are larger than the preset operation characteristic value threshold value, the operation characteristic values are larger than the number of sub-time periods corresponding to the preset operation characteristic value threshold value, and the sub-time periods are marked as characteristic evaluation values;
s2: obtaining the internal and external influence values of the data acquisition sensor in each sub-time period, wherein the internal and external influence values represent product values obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on the part of the running temperature average value exceeding the preset running temperature average value threshold and the heat radiation average value, further obtaining the maximum value and the minimum value of the internal and external influence values, marking the difference value between the maximum value and the minimum value of the internal and external influence values as an interference risk value, and comparing the characteristic evaluation value and the interference risk value with the preset characteristic evaluation value threshold and the preset interference risk value threshold which are recorded and stored in the characteristic evaluation value and the interference risk value:
if the feature evaluation value is smaller than the preset feature evaluation value threshold and the interference risk value is smaller than the preset interference risk value threshold, generating an operation instruction;
if the feature evaluation value is greater than or equal to a preset feature evaluation value threshold value or the interference risk value is greater than or equal to a preset interference risk value threshold value, generating an early warning instruction, and when the early warning instruction is generated, immediately displaying preset early warning characters corresponding to the early warning instruction by a display panel;
the transmission delay risk analysis process is as follows:
t1: acquiring line interference values of the data acquisition sensor transmission lines in each sub-time period, wherein the line interference values represent product values obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on the part of the damaged area of the line port exceeding a preset damaged area threshold and the line transmission electromagnetic frequency, and meanwhile acquiring delay risk values of the data acquisition sensor transmission lines in each sub-time period, and the delay risk values represent the part of the product values obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on the transmission time length average value and the transmission distance exceeding a preset threshold;
t2: establishing a rectangular coordinate system by taking the number of sub-time periods as an X axis and taking a line interference value and a delay risk value as a Y axis respectively, drawing a line interference value curve and a delay risk value curve respectively in a dot drawing mode, further respectively obtaining a line interference trend change value and a delay risk trend change value from the line interference value curve and the delay risk value curve, respectively marking the line interference trend change value and the delay risk trend change value as an interference trend value and a delay trend value, simultaneously obtaining a characteristic evaluation value and an interference risk value in a time threshold, and respectively marking the interference trend value, the delay trend value, the characteristic evaluation value and the interference risk value as TQ, YW, TP and GR;
t3: according to the formulaObtaining effective transmission evaluation coefficients, wherein f1, f2, f3 and f4 are preset weight factor coefficients of an interference trend value, a delay trend value, a characteristic evaluation value and an interference risk value respectively, f1, f2, f3 and f4 are positive numbers larger than zero, f5 is a preset fault tolerance factor coefficient, the value is 1.862, W is the effective transmission evaluation coefficient, and the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W is compared with a preset effective transmission evaluation coefficient threshold value recorded and stored in the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W:
if the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W is smaller than or equal to a preset effective transmission evaluation coefficient threshold value, no signal is generated;
if the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W is larger than a preset effective transmission evaluation coefficient threshold value, generating a delay instruction;
the protection management matching analysis process is as follows:
acquiring an effective transmission evaluation coefficient W corresponding to a delay instruction in a time threshold and an environmental impact evaluation value corresponding to a risk instruction, further respectively acquiring a part of the effective transmission evaluation coefficient W larger than a preset effective transmission evaluation coefficient threshold and a part of the environmental impact evaluation value larger than a preset environmental impact evaluation value threshold, respectively marking the parts as a management delay value and a risk management value, marking a product value obtained by carrying out data normalization processing on the management delay value and the risk management value as a matching regulation value, and comparing the matching regulation value with a preset matching regulation value interval recorded and stored in the matching regulation value:
if the matching regulation value is larger than the maximum value in the preset matching regulation value interval, generating a first-level management instruction;
if the matched regulating value belongs to a preset matched regulating value interval, generating a secondary management instruction;
and if the matched regulating value is smaller than the minimum value in the preset matched regulating value interval, generating a three-level management instruction.
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| RU2444752C1 (en) * | 2010-08-04 | 2012-03-10 | Открытое акционерное общество "Российская корпорация ракетно-космического приборостроения и информационных систем" (ОАО "Российские космические системы" | Assessment system of interference immunity of navigation circuit of artificial earth satellite (aes) |
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| CN116562630A (en) * | 2023-07-07 | 2023-08-08 | 数字太空(北京)智能技术研究院有限公司 | Risk assessment method and device for satellite influenced by space environment |
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