CN117200340A - New energy consumption capability assessment method based on uncertainty - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明涉及一种基于不确定性的新能源消纳能力评估方法，属于配电网分析方法技术领域。技术方案：设置待评估区域，获得待评估区域内源网荷储基本数据信息及电网运行方式；获取待评估区域源侧分布式光伏晴天单位容量出力曲线，荷侧以变电站为颗粒度，开展目标年负荷值预测；将变电站典型负荷日预测分时负荷走势与光伏电站典型日出力曲线进行耦合对比，获得耦合阈值；计算不同负荷特性情况下中压线路消纳能力情况；结合电网拓扑，遵循下一级不大于上一级消纳能力的原则，获得评估区域联合消纳能力。本发明基于新能源和电网历史运行状态，将源荷不确定性转化为特定场景下的消纳能力评估，充分利用已有数据，方便、高效进行分区和整体消纳能力计算。The invention relates to an uncertainty-based new energy accommodation capacity assessment method, which belongs to the technical field of distribution network analysis methods. Technical plan: Set up the area to be evaluated, obtain the basic data information of the source network load storage and the power grid operation mode in the area to be evaluated; obtain the sunny day unit capacity output curve of distributed photovoltaic in the area to be evaluated, and use the substation as the granularity on the load side to carry out the target Annual load value prediction; couple and compare the time-sharing load trend of the substation's typical daily load prediction with the typical daily output curve of the photovoltaic power station to obtain the coupling threshold; calculate the accommodation capacity of the medium-voltage line under different load characteristics; combined with the power grid topology, follow the following Based on the principle that the consumption capacity of one level is not greater than that of the previous level, the joint consumption capacity of the assessed area is obtained. Based on the historical operating status of new energy and power grids, this invention converts source load uncertainty into accommodation capacity assessment in specific scenarios, makes full use of existing data, and performs partition and overall accommodation capacity calculations conveniently and efficiently.
Description
技术领域Technical field
本发明涉及一种基于不确定性的新能源消纳能力评估方法，属于配电网分析方法技术领域。The invention relates to an uncertainty-based new energy accommodation capacity assessment method, which belongs to the technical field of distribution network analysis methods.
背景技术Background technique
在新型电力系统建设的背景下，未来集中式和分布式新能源接入电网规模将快速增长，光伏作为新能源的代表，装机容量和装机速度都在飞速发展。然而以风电和光伏为主的新能源出力具有明显的随机性、波动性以及不可控性，大规模并网消纳一直是亟待解决的难题。In the context of the construction of new power systems, the scale of centralized and distributed new energy access to the power grid will grow rapidly in the future. As a representative of new energy, photovoltaics are developing rapidly in both installed capacity and speed. However, the output of new energy sources, mainly wind power and photovoltaics, has obvious randomness, volatility and uncontrollability. Large-scale grid connection and consumption have always been problems that need to be solved.
现有的技术在进行分布式光伏消纳能力评估时，一般需要通过构建配电网仿真模型，以配电网安全运行为边界，不断试探出配电网的新能源消纳能力，但是，动态建模和仿真工作量巨大，且建模方法不具备普遍适用性，效率较低，当前缺乏切实可行的快速的对于地域的光伏电源消纳能力的评估方法。When evaluating distributed photovoltaic capacity with existing technologies, it is generally necessary to build a distribution network simulation model and continuously explore the new energy consumption capacity of the distribution network based on the safe operation of the distribution network. However, dynamic The workload of modeling and simulation is huge, and the modeling method is not universally applicable and has low efficiency. Currently, there is a lack of practical and rapid evaluation methods for regional photovoltaic power consumption capabilities.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明目的是提供一种基于不确定性的新能源消纳能力评估方法，基于新能源和电网历史运行状态，以“数”为据，以变电站为“颗粒度”，将源荷不确定性转化为特定场景下的消纳能力评估，充分利用已有数据，方便、高效进行分区和整体消纳能力计算，有效地解决了背景技术中存在的上述问题。The purpose of this invention is to provide an uncertainty-based evaluation method for new energy accommodation capacity. Based on new energy and the historical operating status of the power grid, using "numbers" as the data and substations as the "granularity", the source load uncertainty is It is transformed into an assessment of accommodation capacity in a specific scenario, making full use of existing data to calculate partitions and overall accommodation capacity conveniently and efficiently, effectively solving the above-mentioned problems existing in the background technology.
本发明的技术方案是：一种基于不确定性的新能源消纳能力评估方法，包含以下步骤：The technical solution of the present invention is: an uncertainty-based new energy consumption capacity assessment method, which includes the following steps:
S101、获取待评估区域，获得待评估区域内源网荷储基本数据信息及电网运行方式；S101. Obtain the area to be assessed, and obtain the basic data information of the source grid load storage and the power grid operating mode in the area to be assessed;
S102、获取待评估区域源侧分布式光伏晴天单位容量出力曲线，荷侧以变电站为颗粒度，开展目标年负荷值预测；S102. Obtain the sunny day unit capacity output curve of distributed photovoltaic in the area to be evaluated on the source side, and use the substation as the granularity on the load side to predict the target annual load value;
S103、将变电站典型负荷日预测分时负荷走势与光伏电站典型日出力曲线进行耦合对比，获得耦合阈值；S103. Couple and compare the daily predicted time-sharing load trend of the substation's typical load with the typical daily output curve of the photovoltaic power station to obtain the coupling threshold;
S104、计算不同负荷特性情况下中压线路消纳能力情况；S104. Calculate the accommodation capacity of medium voltage lines under different load characteristics;
S105、结合电网拓扑，遵循下一级不大于上一级消纳能力的原则，获得评估区域联合消纳能力。S105. Combined with the power grid topology, follow the principle that the next level's consumption capacity is not greater than the upper level's consumption capacity, and obtain the joint consumption capacity of the assessment area.
所述步骤S101具体包括如下步骤：The step S101 specifically includes the following steps:
S201、获取待评估区域，收集典型分布式光伏历史一年内出力曲线；S201. Obtain the area to be evaluated and collect typical distributed photovoltaic historical output curves within one year;
S202、以变电站为颗粒度，收集待评估区域内变电站历史年负荷及典型日负荷曲线；S202. Taking the substation as the granularity, collect the historical annual load and typical daily load curve of the substation in the area to be evaluated;
S203、基于目标年网架结构及电网正常运行方式，绘制待评估区域电网拓扑图。S203. Based on the grid structure and normal operation mode of the power grid in the target year, draw a topology diagram of the power grid in the area to be evaluated.
所述步骤S102具体包括如下步骤：The step S102 specifically includes the following steps:
S301、基于典型分布式光伏历史一年内出力曲线，利用第一计算公式获得光电转换利用率，即晴天典型日单位容量出力曲线；S301. Based on the typical distributed photovoltaic historical output curve within one year, use the first calculation formula to obtain the photoelectric conversion utilization rate, that is, the typical day unit capacity output curve on a sunny day;
第一计算公式为：The first calculation formula is:
式中，PGi1为分布式光伏在i时刻的单位容量出力值；PGi0n为分布式光伏在历史一年内某晴天情况下i时刻的实际出力值，n为历史一年内晴天数量；M为分布式光伏装机容量；In the formula, P Gi1 is the unit capacity output value of distributed photovoltaic at time i; P Gi0n is the actual output value of distributed photovoltaic at time i under a certain sunny day in the historical year, n is the number of sunny days in the historical year; M is the distribution Type photovoltaic installed capacity;
S302、以变电站为颗粒度，采用趋势外推法预测各变电站目标年负荷；S302. Taking the substation as the granularity, use the trend extrapolation method to predict the target annual load of each substation;
S303、基于光伏典型日同时期变电站日负荷曲线，利用第二计算公式得到目标年典型日负荷曲线；S303. Based on the photovoltaic typical daily substation daily load curve for the same period, use the second calculation formula to obtain the typical daily load curve of the target year;
第二计算公式为：The second calculation formula is:
式中，PB2为采用趋势外推法预测的目标年变电站典型日最大用电负荷预测值；PB1为现状变电站典型日最大用电负荷值；PBi2为目标年典型日各时刻负荷值；PBi1为现状年典型日各时刻负荷值；i为各整点时刻，取0-23。In the formula, P B2 is the predicted maximum power load value of the substation on a typical day in the target year predicted by the trend extrapolation method; P B1 is the maximum power load value on a typical day of the current substation; P Bi2 is the load value at each time on a typical day in the target year; P Bi1 is the load value at each time on a typical day in the current year; i is the time at each hour, ranging from 0 to 23.
所述步骤S103具体包括如下步骤：The step S103 specifically includes the following steps:
S401、制定消纳能力基本原则：110kV或35kV电网不发生功率倒送现象；S401. Formulate the basic principles of accommodation capacity: no power backflow will occur in the 110kV or 35kV power grid;
S402、逐一开展变电站目标年典型负荷日的分时负荷走势与分布式光伏电站典型日出力曲线耦合，利用第三计算公式获得耦合阈值；S402. Couple the time-sharing load trend of the typical load day of the substation target year with the typical daily output curve of the distributed photovoltaic power station one by one, and use the third calculation formula to obtain the coupling threshold;
第三计算公式为：The third calculation formula is:
Y＝min(PGi2＝PBi2)Y＝min(P Gi2 =P Bi2 )
式中，Y为耦合阈值；PGi2为光伏在i时刻的出力；PBi2为变电站目标年典型日i时刻负荷值；In the formula, Y is the coupling threshold; P Gi2 is the photovoltaic output at time i; P Bi2 is the load value of the substation at time i on a typical day in the target year;
S403、在耦合阈值的基础上考虑现状年变电站已有光伏出力，利用第四计算公式得到各变电站新能源消纳能力；S403. Based on the coupling threshold, considering the current photovoltaic output of the substation, use the fourth calculation formula to obtain the new energy consumption capacity of each substation;
第四计算公式为：The fourth calculation formula is:
PBQ＝Y-PBGi P BQ =YP BGi
式中，PBQ为变电站Q目标年消纳能力；Y为耦合阈值；PSQ为变电站Q已有光伏出力。In the formula, P BQ is the target annual consumption capacity of substation Q; Y is the coupling threshold; P SQ is the existing photovoltaic output of substation Q.
所述步骤S104具体包括如下步骤：The step S104 specifically includes the following steps:
S501、针对区域内中压线路典型日负荷曲线，采用聚类分析方法，对中压线路进行分类，划分标签为居住为主类线路、商业为主类线路和工业为主类线路；S501. Based on the typical daily load curves of medium-voltage lines in the region, cluster analysis methods are used to classify medium-voltage lines, and the labels are divided into residential-based lines, commercial-based lines, and industrial-based lines;
S502、基于系统采集的近三年中压线路负荷数据，利用第五计算公式得到中压线路最大负载情况；S502. Based on the medium-voltage line load data collected by the system in the past three years, use the fifth calculation formula to obtain the maximum load condition of the medium-voltage line;
第五计算公式为：The fifth calculation formula is:
式中，ηx为线路负载率；Pxi为现状线路i时刻负荷值；L为线路最大载流量；In the formula, η x is the line load rate; P xi is the current load value of line i at time; L is the maximum carrying capacity of the line;
S503、结合中压线路投运年限、中压线路最大负载率和线路标签分类，利用第六计算公式形成不同负荷特性和不同投运年限情况下的平均最大负载率；S503. Combine the operation years of medium-voltage lines, the maximum load rate of medium-voltage lines and line label classification, and use the sixth calculation formula to form the average maximum load rate under different load characteristics and different years of operation;
第六计算公式为：The sixth calculation formula is:
式中，ηxjn为居住为主类标签、投运n年中压线路的平均最大负载率；第k条居住为主类标签、投运n年中压线路的最大负载率；K为投运n年居住类标签中压线路条数；j代表居住类；In the formula, η xjn is the average maximum load rate of medium-voltage lines with residential-based labels and n years of operation; Article k is the maximum load rate of medium-voltage lines with residence-based labels and n years of operation; K is the number of medium-voltage lines with residential labels in n years of operation; j represents the residential category;
S504、按照线路分类标签，结合不同投运年限情况下的平均负载率，利用第七计算公式对中压线路目标年最大负荷进行预测；S504. According to the line classification label, combined with the average load rate under different operating years, use the seventh calculation formula to predict the target annual maximum load of the medium voltage line;
第七计算公式为：The seventh calculation formula is:
Pxj＝ηxjn·L Pxj ＝ ηxjn ·L
式中，Pxj为居住为主类标签线路目标年最大负荷预测值；ηxjn为居住为主类标签、投运n年中压线路的平均最大负载率，n的取值为目标年距离投运年的年限；L为线路最大载流量；In the formula , P The number of years of operation; L is the maximum carrying capacity of the line;
S505、基于光伏典型日同时期中压线路日负荷曲线，利用第八计算公式得到目标年中压线路典型日负荷曲线；S505. Based on the photovoltaic typical daily medium-voltage line daily load curve for the same period, use the eighth calculation formula to obtain the typical daily load curve of the medium-voltage line in the target year;
第八计算公式为：The eighth calculation formula is:
式中，Pxji2为居住为主类标签线路目标年i时刻的负荷值，Pxj为居住为主类标签线路目标年最大负荷预测值；Pxj1为现状居住类线路典型日最大用电负荷值；Pxji1为现状年居住类标签线路典型日各时刻负荷值；i为各整点时刻，取0-23；In the formula, P xji2 is the load value of the target year i time of the residential-based tagged line, P xj is the target annual maximum load prediction value of the residential-based tagged line; P xj1 is the typical daily maximum power load value of the current residential type line ;P xji1 is the typical daily load value of residential tag lines in the current year at each time; i is the hourly time, ranging from 0 to 23;
S506、逐一开展中压线路目标年典型负荷日的分时负荷走势与分布式光伏电站典型日出力曲线耦合，利用第九计算公式获得耦合阈值；S506. Couple the time-sharing load trend of the target annual typical load day of the medium-voltage line with the typical daily output curve of the distributed photovoltaic power station one by one, and use the ninth calculation formula to obtain the coupling threshold;
第九计算公式为：The ninth calculation formula is:
Y＝min(PGi2＝Pxi2)+0.8LY＝min(P Gi2 =P xi2 )+0.8L
式中，Y为耦合阈值；PGi2为光伏在i时刻的出力；Pxi2为中压线路目标年典型日i时刻负荷值，L为线路最大载流量；In the formula, Y is the coupling threshold; P Gi2 is the photovoltaic output at time i; P xi2 is the target load value of the medium voltage line at time i on a typical day in a year, and L is the maximum carrying capacity of the line;
S507、在耦合阈值的基础上考虑现状年中压线路已有光伏出力，利用第十计算公式得到各中压线路新能源消纳能力；S507. Based on the coupling threshold, considering the existing photovoltaic output of the medium-voltage lines in the current year, use the tenth calculation formula to obtain the new energy consumption capacity of each medium-voltage line;
第十计算公式为：The tenth calculation formula is:
PXi＝Y-PSi P Xi =YP Si
式中，PXi为中压线路i目标年消纳能力；Y为耦合阈值；PSi为中压线路i已有光伏出力。In the formula, P Xi is the target annual consumption capacity of medium voltage line i; Y is the coupling threshold; P Si is the existing photovoltaic output of medium voltage line i.
所述步骤S105具体包括如下步骤：The step S105 specifically includes the following steps:
S601、基于绘制的待评估区域电网拓扑图，将各级电网消纳能力进行标注；S601. Based on the drawn topology map of the regional power grid to be evaluated, mark the power grid accommodation capabilities at all levels;
S602、逐一计算各变电站所带中压线路的消纳能力合计值；S602. Calculate the total accommodation capacity of the medium-voltage lines in each substation one by one;
S603、按照下一级不大于上一级消纳能力的原则，对于某变电站Q来说，利用第十一计算公式进行变电站级与中压线路级消纳能力比较，最终获得评估区域联合消纳能力；S603. In accordance with the principle that the next level's accommodation capacity is not greater than the upper level's accommodation capacity, for a certain substation Q, use the eleventh calculation formula to compare the accommodation capacity of the substation level and the medium voltage line level, and finally obtain the joint accommodation capacity of the assessment area ability;
第十一计算公式为：The eleventh calculation formula is:
式中,PB′Q为变电站Q供电范围目标年最终消纳能力值，PBQ为变电站层级计算目标年消纳能力；为变电站Q所属中压线路i目标年消纳能力。In the formula, P B ′ Q is the target annual final consumption capacity value of the power supply range of substation Q, and P BQ is the target annual consumption capacity calculated at the substation level; is the target annual consumption capacity of the medium-voltage line i to which substation Q belongs.
本发明的有益效果是：基于新能源和电网历史运行状态，以“数”为据，以变电站为“颗粒度”，将源荷不确定性转化为特定场景下的消纳能力评估，充分利用已有数据，方便、高效进行分区和整体消纳能力计算。The beneficial effects of this invention are: based on new energy and the historical operating status of the power grid, using "number" as the data and substations as the "granularity", the uncertainty of the source and load is converted into an assessment of the accommodation capacity in a specific scenario, making full use of With existing data, it is convenient and efficient to calculate zoning and overall accommodation capacity.
附图说明Description of the drawings
图1是本发明的总流程图；Figure 1 is a general flow chart of the present invention;
图2是本发明步骤S101的方法流程图；Figure 2 is a method flow chart of step S101 of the present invention;
图3是本发明步骤S102的方法流程图；Figure 3 is a method flow chart of step S102 of the present invention;
图4是本发明步骤S103的方法流程图；Figure 4 is a method flow chart of step S103 of the present invention;
图5是本发明步骤S104的方法流程图；Figure 5 is a method flow chart of step S104 of the present invention;
图6是本发明步骤S105的方法流程图。Figure 6 is a method flow chart of step S105 of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面结合附图与实施例对本发明技术方案作进一步详细的说明，这是本发明的较佳实施例。应当理解，所描述的实施例仅仅是本发明一部分实施例，而不是全部的实施例；需要说明的是，在不冲突的情况下，本发明中的实施例及实施例中的特征可以相互组合。基于本发明中的实施例，本领域普通技术人员在没有做出创造性劳动前提下所获得的所有其他实施例，都属于本发明保护的范围。The technical solution of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and examples, which are preferred embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that the described embodiments are only some of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments; it should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments of the present invention can be combined with each other as long as there is no conflict. . Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.
一种基于不确定性的新能源消纳能力评估方法，包含以下步骤：An uncertainty-based new energy accommodation capacity assessment method, including the following steps:
S101、获取待评估区域，获得待评估区域内源网荷储基本数据信息及电网运行方式等；S101. Obtain the area to be assessed, and obtain the basic data information of the source grid load storage and power grid operation mode in the area to be assessed;
S102、获取待评估区域源侧分布式光伏晴天单位容量出力曲线，荷侧以变电站(主变)为颗粒度，开展目标年负荷值预测；S102. Obtain the unit capacity output curve of distributed photovoltaic sunny days in the area to be evaluated on the source side, and use the substation (main transformer) as the granularity on the load side to predict the target annual load value;
S103、将变电站(主变)典型负荷日预测分时负荷走势与光伏电站典型日出力曲线进行耦合对比，获得耦合阈值；S103. Couple and compare the typical daily predicted load trend of the substation (main transformer) with the typical daily output curve of the photovoltaic power station to obtain the coupling threshold;
S104、计算不同负荷特性情况下中压线路消纳能力情况；S104. Calculate the accommodation capacity of medium voltage lines under different load characteristics;
S105、结合电网拓扑，遵循下一级不大于上一级消纳能力的原则，获得评估区域联合消纳能力。S105. Combined with the power grid topology, follow the principle that the next level's consumption capacity is not greater than the upper level's consumption capacity, and obtain the joint consumption capacity of the assessment area.
所述步骤S101具体包括如下步骤：The step S101 specifically includes the following steps:
S201、获取待评估区域，收集典型分布式光伏历史一年内出力曲线；S201. Obtain the area to be evaluated and collect typical distributed photovoltaic historical output curves within one year;
S202、以变电站(主变)为颗粒度，收集待评估区域内变电站历史年负荷及典型日负荷曲线；S202. Taking the substation (main transformer) as the granularity, collect the historical annual load and typical daily load curve of the substation in the area to be evaluated;
S203、基于目标年网架结构及电网正常运行方式，绘制待评估区域电网拓扑图。S203. Based on the grid structure and normal operation mode of the power grid in the target year, draw a topology diagram of the power grid in the area to be evaluated.
所述步骤S102具体包括如下步骤：The step S102 specifically includes the following steps:
S301、基于典型分布式光伏历史一年内出力曲线，利用第一计算公式获得光电转换利用率，即晴天典型日单位容量出力曲线；S301. Based on the typical distributed photovoltaic historical output curve within one year, use the first calculation formula to obtain the photoelectric conversion utilization rate, that is, the typical day unit capacity output curve on a sunny day;
第一计算公式为：The first calculation formula is:
式中，PGi1为分布式光伏在i时刻的单位容量出力值；PGi0n为分布式光伏在历史一年内某晴天情况下i时刻的实际出力值，n为历史一年内晴天数量；M为分布式光伏装机容量；In the formula, P Gi1 is the unit capacity output value of distributed photovoltaic at time i; P Gi0n is the actual output value of distributed photovoltaic at time i under a certain sunny day in the historical year, n is the number of sunny days in the historical year; M is the distribution Type photovoltaic installed capacity;
S302、以变电站(主变)为颗粒度，采用趋势外推法预测各变电站目标年负荷；S302. Taking the substation (main transformer) as the granularity, use the trend extrapolation method to predict the target annual load of each substation;
S303、基于光伏典型日同时期变电站(主变)日负荷曲线，利用第二计算公式得到目标年典型日负荷曲线；S303. Based on the photovoltaic typical daily substation (main transformer) daily load curve for the same period, use the second calculation formula to obtain the typical daily load curve of the target year;
第二计算公式为：The second calculation formula is:
式中，PB2为采用趋势外推法预测的目标年变电站典型日最大用电负荷预测值；PB1为现状变电站典型日最大用电负荷值；PBi2为目标年典型日各时刻负荷值；PBi1为现状年典型日各时刻负荷值；i为各整点时刻，取0-23。In the formula, P B2 is the predicted maximum power load value of the substation on a typical day in the target year predicted by the trend extrapolation method; P B1 is the maximum power load value on a typical day of the current substation; P Bi2 is the load value at each time on a typical day in the target year; P Bi1 is the load value at each time on a typical day in the current year; i is the time at each hour, ranging from 0 to 23.
所述步骤S103具体包括如下步骤：The step S103 specifically includes the following steps:
S401、制定消纳能力基本原则：110kV或35kV电网不发生功率倒送现象；S401. Formulate the basic principles of accommodation capacity: no power backflow will occur in the 110kV or 35kV power grid;
S402、逐一开展变电站目标年典型负荷日的分时负荷走势与分布式光伏电站典型日出力曲线耦合，利用第三计算公式获得耦合阈值；S402. Couple the time-sharing load trend of the typical load day of the substation target year with the typical daily output curve of the distributed photovoltaic power station one by one, and use the third calculation formula to obtain the coupling threshold;
第三计算公式为：The third calculation formula is:
Y＝min(PGi2＝PBi2)Y＝min(P Gi2 =P Bi2 )
式中，Y为耦合阈值；PGi2为光伏在i时刻的出力；PBi2为变电站目标年典型日i时刻负荷值；In the formula, Y is the coupling threshold; P Gi2 is the photovoltaic output at time i; P Bi2 is the load value of the substation at time i on a typical day in the target year;
S403、在耦合阈值的基础上考虑现状年变电站已有光伏出力，利用第四计算公式得到各变电站新能源消纳能力；S403. Based on the coupling threshold, considering the current photovoltaic output of the substation, use the fourth calculation formula to obtain the new energy consumption capacity of each substation;
第四计算公式为：The fourth calculation formula is:
PBQ＝Y-PBGi P BQ =YP BGi
式中，PBQ为变电站Q目标年消纳能力；Y为耦合阈值；PSQ为变电站Q已有光伏出力。In the formula, P BQ is the target annual consumption capacity of substation Q; Y is the coupling threshold; P SQ is the existing photovoltaic output of substation Q.
所述步骤S104具体包括如下步骤：The step S104 specifically includes the following steps:
S501、针对区域内中压线路典型日负荷曲线，采用聚类分析方法，对中压线路进行分类，划分标签为居住为主类线路、商业为主类线路和工业为主类线路；S501. Based on the typical daily load curves of medium-voltage lines in the region, cluster analysis methods are used to classify medium-voltage lines, and the labels are divided into residential-based lines, commercial-based lines, and industrial-based lines;
S502、基于系统采集的近三年中压线路负荷数据，利用第五计算公式得到中压线路最大负载情况；S502. Based on the medium-voltage line load data collected by the system in the past three years, use the fifth calculation formula to obtain the maximum load condition of the medium-voltage line;
第五计算公式为：The fifth calculation formula is:
式中，ηx为线路负载率；Pxi为现状线路i时刻负荷值；L为线路最大载流量；In the formula, η x is the line load rate; P xi is the current load value of line i at time; L is the maximum carrying capacity of the line;
S503、结合中压线路投运年限、中压线路最大负载率和线路标签分类，利用第六计算公式形成不同负荷特性和不同投运年限情况下的平均最大负载率；S503. Combine the operation years of medium-voltage lines, the maximum load rate of medium-voltage lines and line label classification, and use the sixth calculation formula to form the average maximum load rate under different load characteristics and different years of operation;
第六计算公式为：The sixth calculation formula is:
式中，ηxjn为居住为主类标签、投运n年中压线路的平均最大负载率；第k条居住为主类标签、投运n年中压线路的最大负载率；K为投运n年居住类标签中压线路条数；j代表居住类；In the formula, η xjn is the average maximum load rate of medium-voltage lines with residential-based labels and n years of operation; Article k is the maximum load rate of medium-voltage lines with residence-based labels and n years of operation; K is the number of medium-voltage lines with residential labels in n years of operation; j represents the residential category;
S504、按照线路分类标签，结合不同投运年限情况下的平均负载率，利用第七计算公式对中压线路目标年最大负荷进行预测；S504. According to the line classification label, combined with the average load rate under different operating years, use the seventh calculation formula to predict the target annual maximum load of the medium voltage line;
第七计算公式为：The seventh calculation formula is:
Pxj＝ηxjn·L Pxj ＝ ηxjn ·L
式中，Pxj为居住为主类标签线路目标年最大负荷预测值；ηxjn为居住为主类标签、投运n年中压线路的平均最大负载率，n的取值为目标年距离投运年的年限；L为线路最大载流量；In the formula , P The number of years of operation; L is the maximum carrying capacity of the line;
S505、基于光伏典型日同时期中压线路日负荷曲线，利用第八计算公式得到目标年中压线路典型日负荷曲线；S505. Based on the photovoltaic typical daily medium-voltage line daily load curve for the same period, use the eighth calculation formula to obtain the typical daily load curve of the medium-voltage line in the target year;
第八计算公式为：The eighth calculation formula is:
式中，Pxji2为居住为主类标签线路目标年i时刻的负荷值，Pxj为居住为主类标签线路目标年最大负荷预测值；Pxj1为现状居住类线路典型日最大用电负荷值；Pxji1为现状年居住类标签线路典型日各时刻负荷值；i为各整点时刻，取0-23；In the formula, P xji2 is the load value of the target year i time of the residential-based tagged line, P xj is the target annual maximum load prediction value of the residential-based tagged line; P xj1 is the typical daily maximum power load value of the current residential type line ;P xji1 is the typical daily load value of residential tag lines in the current year at each time; i is the hourly time, ranging from 0 to 23;
S506、逐一开展中压线路目标年典型负荷日的分时负荷走势与分布式光伏电站典型日出力曲线耦合，利用第九计算公式获得耦合阈值；S506. Couple the time-sharing load trend of the target annual typical load day of the medium-voltage line with the typical daily output curve of the distributed photovoltaic power station one by one, and use the ninth calculation formula to obtain the coupling threshold;
第九计算公式为：The ninth calculation formula is:
Y＝min(PGi2＝Pxi2)+0.8LY＝min(P Gi2 =P xi2 )+0.8L
式中，Y为耦合阈值；PGi2为光伏在i时刻的出力；Pxi2为中压线路目标年典型日i时刻负荷值，L为线路最大载流量；In the formula, Y is the coupling threshold; P Gi2 is the photovoltaic output at time i; P xi2 is the target load value of the medium voltage line at time i on a typical day in a year, and L is the maximum carrying capacity of the line;
S507、在耦合阈值的基础上考虑现状年中压线路已有光伏出力，利用第十计算公式得到各中压线路新能源消纳能力；S507. Based on the coupling threshold, considering the existing photovoltaic output of the medium-voltage lines in the current year, use the tenth calculation formula to obtain the new energy consumption capacity of each medium-voltage line;
第十计算公式为：The tenth calculation formula is:
PXi＝Y-PSi P Xi =YP Si
式中，PXi为中压线路i目标年消纳能力；Y为耦合阈值；PSi为中压线路i已有光伏出力。In the formula, P Xi is the target annual consumption capacity of medium voltage line i; Y is the coupling threshold; P Si is the existing photovoltaic output of medium voltage line i.
所述步骤S105具体包括如下步骤：The step S105 specifically includes the following steps:
S601、基于绘制的待评估区域电网拓扑图，将各级电网消纳能力进行标注；S601. Based on the drawn topology map of the regional power grid to be evaluated, mark the power grid accommodation capabilities at all levels;
S602、逐一计算各变电站所带中压线路的消纳能力合计值；S602. Calculate the total accommodation capacity of the medium-voltage lines in each substation one by one;
S603、按照下一级不大于上一级消纳能力的原则，对于某变电站Q来说，利用第十一计算公式进行变电站级与中压线路级消纳能力比较，最终获得评估区域联合消纳能力；S603. In accordance with the principle that the next level's accommodation capacity is not greater than the upper level's accommodation capacity, for a certain substation Q, use the eleventh calculation formula to compare the accommodation capacity of the substation level and the medium voltage line level, and finally obtain the joint accommodation capacity of the assessment area ability;
第十一计算公式为：The eleventh calculation formula is:
式中,PB′Q为变电站Q供电范围目标年最终消纳能力值，PBQ为变电站层级计算目标年消纳能力；为变电站Q所属中压线路i目标年消纳能力。In the formula, P B ′ Q is the target annual final consumption capacity value of the power supply range of substation Q, and P BQ is the target annual consumption capacity calculated at the substation level; is the target annual consumption capacity of the medium-voltage line i to which substation Q belongs.
在本发明实施例中，将计算得到的待评估区域内每一回中压线路的消纳能力，以及每一座变电站的消纳能力在电网拓扑图中进行标注。In the embodiment of the present invention, the calculated accommodation capacity of each medium-voltage line in the area to be evaluated and the accommodation capacity of each substation are marked on the power grid topology diagram.
在本发明实施例中，依据标注的电网拓扑图，按照下一级不大于上一级消纳能力的原则，以“变电站”为颗粒度，从下层开始往上逐步对比分析，变电站总体消纳能力不应大于所带中压线路消纳能力之和，目标年新建变电站无需进行变电站与中压线路消纳能力对比分析。在获得每个变电站的消纳能力数据后，再结合电网拓扑，逐步往上一层级进行不同的分区的消纳能力对比分析，进而根据不同分区分析结果，完成区域联合消纳能力数据的获取。In the embodiment of the present invention, according to the marked power grid topology diagram, in accordance with the principle that the next level is not greater than the upper level's accommodation capacity, with "substation" as the granularity, starting from the lower level and gradually comparing and analyzing upward, the overall accommodation capacity of the substation The capacity should not be greater than the sum of the accommodation capacities of the medium-voltage lines. There is no need to conduct a comparative analysis of the accommodation capacities of substations and medium-voltage lines for new substations built in the target year. After obtaining the consumption capacity data of each substation, combined with the power grid topology, we gradually conduct a comparative analysis of the consumption capacity of different partitions at the upper level, and then complete the acquisition of regional joint consumption capacity data based on the analysis results of different partitions.
本发明的实施例提供的技术方案可以包括以下有益效果：The technical solutions provided by the embodiments of the present invention may include the following beneficial effects:
本发明针对源荷不确定的特性，源侧从历史典型分布式光伏出力选定出力场景，荷侧考虑不同变电站负荷特性，以“变电站”为颗粒度分别选定典型日负荷曲线场景，从而实现不确定性向确定性场景的转化。In view of the uncertain characteristics of the source and load, the source side selects the output scenario from the historical typical distributed photovoltaic output, and the load side considers the load characteristics of different substations and selects typical daily load curve scenarios with "substation" as the granularity, thereby realizing Transformation of uncertainty into deterministic scenarios.
本发明基于新能源和电网历史运行状态，以“数”为据，充分利用已有数据，能够方便、高效进行分区和整体消纳能力计算，计算方法具备通用性。This invention is based on the historical operating status of new energy and power grid, takes "number" as the basis, makes full use of existing data, and can calculate partitions and overall accommodation capacity conveniently and efficiently, and the calculation method is universal.
显然，本领域的技术人员可以对本发明进行各种改动和变型而不脱离本发明的精神和范围。这样，倘若本发明的这些修改和变型属于本发明权利要求及其等同技术的范围之内，则本发明也意图包含这些改动和变型在内。Obviously, those skilled in the art can make various changes and modifications to the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. In this way, if these modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and equivalent technologies, the present invention is also intended to include these modifications and variations.
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