CN117172569A - Flexibility evaluation method considering supply and demand matching of power system - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a flexibility evaluation method considering power system supply and demand matching, which comprises the following steps: s1, modeling uncertainty of new energy output and uncertainty of load prediction to obtain a system payload model capable of reflecting flexibility requirements of an electric power system; s2, acquiring basic parameters of a generator set at a power system supply side, and constructing an up-regulation and down-regulation flexibility quantization model of the generator set; s3, constructing flexibility evaluation indexes of the power system, and selecting the type of a generator set on the supply side of the power system; s4, constructing a flexible supply and demand matching index through a system payload model and a flexible quantization model; s5, carrying out supply and demand matching evaluation on the step S3 by adopting a flexible supply and demand matching index. The invention evaluates the flexibility supply capacity of the flexibility resources in the power system and evaluates the flexibility supply and demand matching capacity, thereby providing technical basis for optimizing and dispatching the flexibility resources to meet the flexibility demands of the system for the power system.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power system flexibility evaluation, in particular to a flexibility evaluation method considering power system supply and demand matching.
Background
For modern power systems, the proportion of renewable energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaic and the like to generate power is continuously increased, and the system needs to face randomness and fluctuation from wind power photovoltaic and demand sides at the same time. If the system is not processed timely, adverse effects are brought to safe and stable operation of the system, so that the importance degree of targeted analysis on the flexibility of the power system is gradually highlighted.
The flexibility of the system means that when the supply and demand change, the existing flexible resources are rapidly optimized and allocated, and the coping capacity of the supply and demand balance is maintained. In actual operation, the renewable energy and thermal power integrated system is influenced by uncertainty factors such as renewable energy input, load demand and the like, so that the supply and demand balance in the system is changed. In order to ensure the supply and demand balance of the configuration system in actual operation, a certain flexibility margin is required to be reserved when the system configuration is carried out so as to meet the flexibility requirement of the system and cope with the uncertainty possibly happening to the system. The method is characterized in that the method comprises the steps of providing a system configuration scheme, accurately predicting the flexibility requirement of the system, constructing a reasonable flexibility resource supply model, and providing an effective flexibility evaluation index.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims at solving the problems in the prior art and provides a flexibility assessment method considering supply and demand matching of a power system, which comprehensively assesses flexibility supply capacity of flexible resources in the power system and assesses flexibility demand and flexibility supply and demand matching capacity of the flexible supply.
The invention aims at solving the problems through the following technical scheme:
a flexibility assessment method considering supply and demand matching of a power system comprises the following steps:
s1, modeling uncertainty of new energy output and uncertainty of load prediction to obtain a system payload model capable of reflecting flexibility requirements of an electric power system;
s2, acquiring basic parameters of a generator set at a power system supply side, and constructing an up-regulation and down-regulation flexibility quantization model of the generator set;
s3, constructing flexibility evaluation indexes of the power system, and selecting the type of a generator set on the supply side of the power system;
s4, constructing a flexibility supply and demand matching index through a system payload model capable of reflecting the flexibility requirement of the power system in the step S1 and a flexibility quantification model of the generator set in the step S2;
And S5, carrying out supply and demand matching evaluation on the type of the generator set on the power system supply side selected in the step S3 by adopting a flexible supply and demand matching index.
The system payload model in the step S1 is:
in the formula (7), the amino acid sequence of the compound,predicting a system payload value for a period t; />A load output predicted value in a t period;the predicted value of the wind power output in the t period is obtained; />The predicted value of the photovoltaic power generation output in the t period is set; />Actual system payload values for a period t; />Predicting an error for the system payload within a period t;
wherein the actual value of the system payload within the period tFor the actual load output value +.>Subtracting the actual wind power output value +.>And the actual value of the photovoltaic power generation capacity +.>
In the formula (8), the amino acid sequence of the compound,actual system payload values for a period t; />The actual load output value in the t period;the actual value of the wind power output in the t period; />Generating an actual value of the photovoltaic power generation force in the t period;
system payload prediction errorAlso should obey the standard deviation of the expected 0, systematic payload prediction error ofNormal distribution of systematic payload prediction error +.>Expressed as:
in the formula (9), the amino acid sequence of the compound,standard deviation of the system payload prediction error over a period t; />The standard deviation of the prediction error of the photovoltaic power generation output in the t period is set; / >The standard deviation of the wind power output prediction error in the t period is shown; />The standard deviation of the load output prediction error in the t period.
The uncertainty of the new energy output in the step S1 comprises wind power uncertainty and photovoltaic power generation uncertainty, wherein when the wind power uncertainty is modeled, a wind power output predicted value is obtained in a system operation period tFor the actual value of wind power outputError of wind power output prediction>And:
in the formula (1), the components are as follows,the predicted value of the wind power output in the t period is obtained; />The actual value of the wind power output in the t period;the wind power output prediction error in the t period is calculated;
prediction error for wind power outputWind power output prediction error in each period t>Can be regarded as the expected value is 0, and the standard deviation of the wind power output prediction error is +.>Wherein the standard deviation of the wind power output prediction error is +.>Can be expressed as:
in the formula (2), the amino acid sequence of the compound,the standard deviation of the wind power output prediction error in the t period is shown; />The capacity of the total assembly machine of the fan;
when modeling the uncertainty of photovoltaic power generation, in the system operation period t, the predicted value of the photovoltaic power generation outputThe actual value of the power for photovoltaic power generation is +.>Prediction error of output of photovoltaic power generation>And (2) sum:
in the formula (3), the amino acid sequence of the compound,the predicted value of the photovoltaic power generation output in the t period is set; / >Generating an actual value of the photovoltaic power generation force in the t period; />Generating a force prediction error for photovoltaic power generation within a t period;
prediction error for photovoltaic power generation outputPhotovoltaic power generation output prediction error +/within each period t>Can be regarded as the expected value is 0, and the standard deviation of the photovoltaic power generation output prediction error is +.>In which the standard deviation of the photovoltaic power generation output prediction error is +.>Can be expressed as:
in the formula (4), the amino acid sequence of the compound,and (5) generating standard deviation of the power prediction error for the photovoltaic power generation in the t period.
In the modeling of the uncertainty of the load prediction in the step S1, the load output predicted valueIs made up of the actual load output value +.>And load output prediction error->Composition, the load output prediction error->Obeying the expectation of 0 and standard deviation of sigma L Is used for correcting the load output predicted value by generating random quantity>Then within each period t the load output predicted value +.>For the actual load output value +.>Error of load output prediction>The sum is shown in the following formula:
in the formula (5), the amino acid sequence of the compound,a load output predicted value in a t period; />The actual load output value in the t period; />Predicting error for load output in t period;
since the load has periodicity, the standard deviation of the load output prediction error in each period t Equal to the load output predicted value +.>Is defined as the percentage of:
in the formula (6), the amino acid sequence of the compound,the standard deviation of the load output prediction error in the t period.
The system payload model in the step S1 can reflect the flexibility requirement of the power system, and the system flexibility requirement forecast valueFluctuation amount for actual value of system payload +.>And system payload fluctuation prediction error +.>And (2) sum:
in the formula (10), the amino acid sequence of the compound,predicting a value for system flexibility requirements in a t period; />Is t+deltaA system payload prediction value within a period t; />Predicting a system payload value for a period t; />The fluctuation amount of the actual value of the net load of the system in the t period; />Predicting an error for the system payload fluctuation within a period t;
wherein the fluctuation amount of the system payload predicted valueThe expression of (c) is the difference between the actual values of the system payload for the t+Δt period and the t period:
in the formula (11), the amino acid sequence of the compound,actual system payload values for a period t+Δt; />Actual system payload values for a period t;
prediction error of net load fluctuation of system in each period tStandard deviation of expected 0, systematic payload fluctuation prediction should be obeyed +.>Is a normal distribution of the system payload fluctuation predictions within each period t>The expression is:
In the formula (12), the amino acid sequence of the compound,the standard deviation of the prediction error of the net load fluctuation of the system in the t period; />Standard deviation of the system payload prediction error over a period of t+Δt; />The standard deviation of the system payload prediction error over the period t.
The up-regulation and down-regulation flexibility quantization model of the generator set in the step S2 comprises an up-regulation and down-regulation flexibility quantization model of a thermal power unit and an up-regulation and down-regulation flexibility quantization model of a hydroelectric power unit:
in the formulae (13) - (14),respectively represent the up-regulation flexibility and the down-regulation flexibility of the power unit, which can be supplied by the thermal power unit>The up-regulation flexibility and the down-regulation flexibility which can be supplied by the hydroelectric generating set are respectively represented;respectively represent thermal power unit n TP Output power and maximum output power at time t, minimum output power, < >> Respectively represent the hydroelectric generating set n HD Output power and maximum output power at time t, minimum output power, < >> Respectively represents the ascending climbing speed and the descending climbing speed of the thermal power generating unit,respectively representing the ascending climbing speed and the descending climbing speed of the hydroelectric generating set, wherein deltat represents a scheduling time interval;
the meanings shown in equation (13) and equation (14) are: the difference value between the maximum output power of the thermal power and the hydropower and the output power at a certain moment and the smaller value of the climbing capacity in the scheduling period are defined as the upward regulation flexibility of the thermal power and the upward regulation flexibility of the hydropower; the difference value between the output power and the minimum output power at a certain moment of thermal power and hydropower and the smaller value of the climbing capacity in the scheduling period are defined as the down-regulation flexibility of the thermal power and the down-regulation flexibility of the hydropower.
The flexibility evaluation index of the power system in the step S3 includes a power system flexibility supply range index, a power system flexibility minimum supply level index, and a power system flexibility climbing rate index; when the type of the generator set at the power system supply side is selected, the minimum power system flexibility supply level index is preferentially used as a selection standard, the power system flexibility climbing rate index is used as a power system flexibility climbing rate index, and the power system flexibility supply range index is used as a power system flexibility supply range index.
The power system flexibility supply range index means a flexibility range which can be supplied by a certain type of generator set in a normal running state, and the specific calculation mode is as follows:
in the formula (15), l FSR Indicating the flexible supply range of the power system, l FSR The larger the flexible supply range of the unit is, otherwise, the smaller the flexible supply range is; n represents an nth certain type of generator set, and N represents the total number of the N generator sets of the certain type; p (P) n,min And P n,max Respectively representing the minimum stable operation power and the maximum output power of an nth unit of the type;
the minimum supply level index of the power system flexibility means the minimum supply level which can be provided by the flexibility of the power system in a normal running state for a certain type of generator set, and the specific calculation mode is as follows:
In the formula (16), l FMSL Indicating a power system flexibility minimum supply level, l FMSL The larger the power system, the less flexibility the generator set of the type can provide when the flexibility requirement appears in the power system, and conversely, the more flexibility is provided; n represents an nth certain type of generator set, and N represents the total number of the N generator sets of the certain type; p (P) n,min And P n,max Respectively representing the minimum stable operation power and the maximum output power of an nth unit of the type;
the flexible climbing rate index of the power system means the total climbing rate of flexible supply for a certain type of generator set, and the specific calculation mode is as follows:
in the formula (17), l FRR Indicating the flexible climbing rate of the power system, l FRR The larger the rate at which this type of unit provides flexibility, the faster the rate at which the unit provides flexibility, and conversely, the slower the rate at which the unit provides flexibility; n represents an nth certain type of generator set, and N represents the total number of the N generator sets of the certain type; r is R n Representing the climbing rate of an nth unit of the type; p (P) n,max Representing the typeMaximum output power of the nth unit.
The flexible supply and demand matching index F in the step S4 CS The ratio of the total demand for flexibility is covered according to the total supply of flexibility:
in the formula (20), the amino acid sequence of the compound,and- >Representing the total supply of flexibility available to the generator set in the system at time t and at time t-1, respectively; />And->The total flexibility requirements of wind, light and load in the time t and the time t-1 are respectively shown;
wherein,the calculation formula of the sum of the up-and-down adjustment flexibility provided for the thermal power generating unit or the sum of the up-and-down adjustment flexibility provided by the hydroelectric generating unit is as follows:
the calculation formula of (2) is shown as follows:
in the formula (22), the amino acid sequence of the compound,the upward and downward flexibility requirements of the system at time t are respectively.
The flexibility evaluation indexes of the power system in the step S3 further include unit flexibility evaluation indexes, wherein the unit flexibility evaluation indexes include a unit up-regulation flexibility evaluation index, a unit down-regulation flexibility evaluation index and a unit comprehensive flexibility evaluation index, the unit up-regulation flexibility evaluation index and the unit down-regulation flexibility evaluation index are defined as the ratio of unit up-regulation flexibility, down-regulation flexibility supply capacity and maximum output power, and the specific calculation modes of the unit up-regulation flexibility evaluation index and the unit down-regulation flexibility evaluation index are as follows:
in the formula (18), the amino acid sequence of the compound,and->Respectively representing the up-regulation flexibility of the unit and the down-regulation flexibility of the unit, < ->The larger the unit is, the more up-regulation flexibility can be provided by the unit, otherwise, the less up-regulation flexibility is provided; / >The larger the unit is, the more the unit can provide the down-regulation flexibility, otherwise, the less the unit can provide the down-regulation flexibility; r is R n Indicating the climbing capacity of the unit n; Δt represents a scheduling time interval;
in the formula (19), l UFEI Indicating the comprehensive flexibility of the unit, l UFEI The larger the unit is, the more comprehensive flexibility the unit can provide is shown; otherwise, provide healdThe flexibility is less.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages:
the flexibility evaluation method starts from basic parameters of the generator set at the power supply side of the power system, provides a power system flexibility supply range, a power system flexibility minimum supply level, a power system flexibility climbing rate, a unit flexibility evaluation index definition and a calculation mode thereof, can perform system special scheduling according to the flexibility indexes, and is beneficial to making a power system day-ahead scheduling plan.
The invention further constructs the flexibility supply and demand matching index for better evaluating the matching degree between the available flexibility resources and the flexibility demands in the system, and the index can intuitively judge the matching degree of the flexibility supply and demands in the system, and can further improve the effectiveness and rationality of the system configuration on the basis of realizing the economic operation of the system.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a flexibility evaluation method considering power system supply-demand matching provided by the invention;
FIG. 2 is a comparative graph of power system flexibility evaluation index according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a graph showing comparison of the evaluation indexes of up-regulation, down-regulation and comprehensive flexibility of each thermal power generating unit according to the embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of flexible supply-demand matching when the flexible supply-demand matching coefficient is 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of flexible supply-demand matching when the flexible supply-demand matching coefficient is 0.90 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the drawings and the detailed description. The advantages and features of the present invention will become more apparent from the following description. It should be noted that the drawings are in a very simplified form and are all to a non-precise scale, merely for the purpose of facilitating and clearly aiding in the description of embodiments of the invention. For a better understanding of the invention with objects, features and advantages, refer to the drawings. It should be understood that the structures, proportions, sizes, etc. shown in the drawings are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as limiting the invention to the extent that any modifications, changes in the proportions, or adjustments of the sizes of structures, proportions, or otherwise, used in the practice of the invention, are included in the spirit and scope of the invention which is otherwise, without departing from the spirit or essential characteristics thereof.
As shown in fig. 1, a flexibility evaluation method considering supply and demand matching of a power system includes the following steps:
s1, modeling uncertainty of new energy output and uncertainty of load prediction to obtain a system payload model capable of reflecting flexibility requirements of an electric power system;
modeling the uncertainty of the new energy output and the uncertainty of the load prediction comprises wind power uncertainty modeling, photovoltaic power generation uncertainty modeling and load prediction uncertainty modeling, and in a power system accessed by high-proportion wind power, the net load represents the load demand required to be provided by other units except for new energy power generation, so that the flexibility demands on both supply and demand sides can be clearly described. But the net load exhibits variability and uncertainty characteristics due to the double uncertainty effects of new energy output and load fluctuations. Wherein variability refers to the change of the net load along with time, which is caused by the predicted load demand and the new energy output change; uncertainty refers to unpredictable fluctuations in the payload, which are caused by prediction errors. Therefore, to obtain a net load curve that reflects the flexibility requirements of the power system, it is necessary to deal with the uncertainty of the new energy output and the prediction error of the load.
For wind power uncertainty modeling, wind power output predicted value is obtained in system operation period tFor the actual value of wind power output +.>Error of wind power output prediction>And:
prediction error for wind power outputWind power output prediction error in each period t>Can be regarded as the expected value is 0, and the standard deviation of the wind power output prediction error is +.>Wherein the standard deviation of the wind power output prediction error is +.>Can be expressed as:
wherein:is the total capacity of the blower.
When modeling the uncertainty of the photovoltaic power generation, according to the characteristics of the output of the photovoltaic power generation, the output predicted value of the photovoltaic power generation is calculatedThe actual value of the power for photovoltaic power generation is +.>Prediction error of output of photovoltaic power generation>And (2) sum:
prediction error for photovoltaic power generation outputPhotovoltaic power generation output prediction error +/within each period t>Can be regarded as the expected value is 0, and the standard deviation of the photovoltaic power generation output prediction error is +.>In which the standard deviation of the photovoltaic power generation output prediction error is +.>Can be expressed as:
for modeling load prediction uncertainty, a load output predicted value is assumedIs made up of the actual load output value +.>And load output prediction error->Composition, the load output prediction error->Obeying the expectation of 0 and standard deviation of sigma L Is used for correcting the load output predicted value by generating random quantity>Then within each period t the load output predicted value +.>For the actual load output value +.>Error of load output prediction>The sum is shown in the following formula:
since the load has periodicity, it can be assumed that the standard deviation of the load output prediction error in each period t is within the load prediction rangeEqual to the load output predicted value +.>Is defined as the percentage of:
then the system net load predicted value is the wind power output predicted valuePhotovoltaic power generation output predicted value->Load output predictive value +.>Is due to wind power output prediction error +.>Photovoltaic power generation output prediction error +.>Load output prediction error->Are uncorrelated and all obey a normal distribution expected to be 0, therefore, the system payload prediction error +.>Should also obey the standard deviation of the expected 0, systematic payload prediction error of +.>Is a normal distribution of (c).
System payload prediction valueFor the actual value of the system payload +.>Prediction error with system payload>And:
wherein the actual value of the system payloadFor the actual load output value +.>Subtracting the actual wind power output value +.>And the actual value of the photovoltaic power generation capacity +.>
Standard deviation of system payload prediction error over period t Can be expressed as:
further, system flexibility demand forecast valuesThe amount of fluctuation that should be the actual value of the system payload +.>And system payload fluctuation prediction error +.>And (2) sum:
wherein the fluctuation amount of the system payload predicted valueThe expression of (c) is the difference between the actual values of the system payload for the t+Δt period and the t period:
assuming that the payload prediction errors of adjacent time periods are uncorrelated with each other, the system payload fluctuation prediction error within each time period tStandard deviation of expected 0, systematic payload fluctuation prediction should be obeyed +.>Is a normal distribution of (2); wherein the standard deviation of the system payload fluctuation predictions within each period t is +.>The expression is:
s2, acquiring basic parameters of a generator set at a power system supply side, and constructing an up-regulation and down-regulation flexibility quantization model of the generator set;
the flexibility supply of thermal power and hydropower is mainly limited in two aspects, namely, the capacity is on one hand, the thermal power and hydropower can operate in a limited range, usually the maximum and minimum output power, the up-regulation flexibility and the down-regulation flexibility provided by the thermal power and hydropower are closely related to a certain point of operation in the limited range, for example, the thermal power is in a maximum output power operation state at a certain moment, the up-regulation flexibility provided by the thermal power is less and almost zero, the down-regulation flexibility is more, and the like; on the other hand, the flexibility provided by thermal power is limited by the capacity and the climbing, so that the capacity and the climbing factors are coordinated and measured when the flexibility of the generator set is adjusted up and down, and the two factors take smaller values.
The difference value between the maximum output power of the thermal power and the hydropower and the output power at a certain moment and the smaller value of the climbing capacity in the scheduling period are defined as the upward regulation flexibility of the thermal power and the upward regulation flexibility of the hydropower; the difference value between the output power and the minimum output power at a certain moment of thermal power and hydropower and the smaller value of the climbing capacity in the scheduling period are defined as the down-regulation flexibility of the thermal power and the down-regulation flexibility of the hydropower.
The thermal power and hydroelectric power up-regulation and down-regulation flexibility quantization model is shown as the following formula:
wherein:respectively represents the up-regulation flexibility and the down-regulation flexibility which can be supplied by the thermal power generating unit,the up-regulation flexibility and the down-regulation flexibility which can be supplied by the hydroelectric generating set are respectively represented; />Respectively represent thermal power unit n TP The output power and maximum output power at time t, the minimum output power,respectively represent the hydroelectric generating set n HD Output power and maximum output power at time t, minimum output power, < >>Respectively represent the ascending climbing speed and the descending climbing speed of the thermal power generating unit, and the +.>The ascending climbing speed and the descending climbing speed of the hydroelectric generating set are respectively represented, and deltat represents a scheduling time interval.
S3, constructing flexibility evaluation indexes of the power system, and selecting the type of a generator set on the supply side of the power system;
The flexibility evaluation index of the power system comprises a flexibility supply range index, a flexibility minimum supply level index and a flexibility climbing rate index, and the flexibility of the power system can evaluate the capability of the power system to cope with uncertainty from different aspects. Among indexes such as reliability, economy, flexibility and the like of the power system, the flexibility is an index which is difficult to quantitatively evaluate, and clear and complete power system flexibility evaluation indexes are more beneficial to making a power system day-ahead scheduling plan.
The power system flexible supply range index means the flexible range which can be supplied by a certain type of generator set in a normal running state, and the specific calculation mode is as follows:
wherein: l (L) FSR Indicating the flexible supply range of the power system, l FSR The larger the flexible supply range of the unit is, otherwise, the smaller the flexible supply range is; n represents an nth certain type of generator set, and N represents the total number of the N generator sets of the certain type; p (P) n,min And P n,max The minimum steady operation power and the maximum output power of the nth unit of this type are respectively represented.
The minimum supply level index of the power system flexibility means the minimum supply level which can be provided by the flexibility of the power system in a normal running state for a certain type of generator set, and the specific calculation mode is as follows:
Wherein: l (L) FMSL Indicating a power system flexibility minimum supply level, l FMSL The larger the power system, the less flexibility the generator set of the type can provide when the flexibility requirement appears in the power system, and conversely, the more flexibility is provided; n represents an nth certain type of generator set, and N represents the total number of the N generator sets of the certain type; p (P) n,min And P n,max The minimum steady operation power and the maximum output power of the nth unit of this type are respectively represented.
The flexible climbing rate index of the power system means the total climbing rate of flexible supply for a certain type of generator set, and the specific calculation mode is as follows:
wherein: l (L) FRR Representing the power systemSystematic and flexible climbing rate, l FRR The larger the rate at which this type of unit provides flexibility, the faster the rate at which the unit provides flexibility, and conversely, the slower the rate at which the unit provides flexibility; n represents an nth certain type of generator set, and N represents the total number of the N generator sets of the certain type; r is R n Representing the climbing rate of an nth unit of the type; p (P) n,max Indicating the maximum output power of the nth unit of this type.
In the flexibility assessment of an electric power system, a flexibility supply range index, a flexibility minimum supply level index and a flexibility ramp rate index are important indexes for measuring flexibility in different aspects. Each focusing on the flexibility capabilities of the system in different states. The flexibility minimum supply level index is the most basic index and therefore has a high priority in the evaluation. The flexible minimum supply level indicator is concerned with the minimum supply level required by the system to ensure basic operation of the system. It emphasizes that the system in any case requires sufficient supply capacity to meet the minimum load requirements or to cope with an emergency situation. This is the basis for ensuring safe and stable operation of the power system.
The flexible ramp rate indicator is at a medium priority immediately following the flexible minimum supply level indicator. The flexible ramp rate index focuses on the flexible supply capability of the system during a switch from low load to high load. This capability is important to cope with severe load changes and new energy fluctuations. The fast ramp rate means that the system can increase the power generation capacity in a short time to accommodate rapid changes in load while maintaining stability of the power supply. The flexibility supply range index is typically at a lower priority than the first two indexes.
The flexible supply range index focuses on the supply capacity range of the power system in different states. It relates to the energy diversity and energy complementarity of the system under different states. This index may not be as urgent as the first two indices in some cases, but it can provide greater operational flexibility, particularly in the face of long-term energy supply variations.
The flexibility evaluation index of the power system is provided with a unit flexibility evaluation index for evaluating the power generation unit, wherein the unit flexibility evaluation index comprises a unit up-regulation flexibility evaluation index, a unit down-regulation flexibility evaluation index and a unit comprehensive flexibility evaluation index, besides the power system flexibility supply range index, the power system flexibility minimum supply level index and the power system flexibility climbing rate index. The unit up-regulation flexibility evaluation index and the unit down-regulation flexibility evaluation index are defined as the ratio of the unit up-regulation flexibility, the unit down-regulation flexibility supply capacity and the maximum output power. The quantized model of the up-regulation flexibility and the down-regulation flexibility supply capacity of the thermal power generating and hydroelectric generating set is given by the step S2. The specific calculation mode of the unit up-regulation and down-regulation flexibility evaluation index is as follows:
Wherein:and->Respectively representing the up-regulation flexibility of the unit and the down-regulation flexibility of the unit, < ->The larger the unit is, the more up-regulation flexibility can be provided by the unit, otherwise, the less up-regulation flexibility is provided; />The larger the unit is, the more the unit can provide the down-regulation flexibility, otherwise, the less the unit can provide the down-regulation flexibility; r is R n Indicating the climbing capacity of the unit n; Δt represents the scheduling time interval.
Further, in order to intuitively evaluate the flexibility of different generator sets, a set comprehensive flexibility evaluation index is introduced, and the specific calculation mode is as follows:
wherein: l (L) UFEI Indicating the comprehensive flexibility of the unit, l UFEI The larger the unit is, the more comprehensive flexibility the unit can provide is shown; and conversely, the comprehensive flexibility is less.
S4, constructing a flexibility supply and demand matching index through a system payload model capable of reflecting the flexibility requirement of the power system in the step S1 and a flexibility quantification model of the generator set in the step S2;
in order to better evaluate the matching degree between the available flexible resources and the flexible demands in the system, the invention further establishes a flexible supply and demand matching index. The flexibility supply and demand matching index evaluates flexibility according to the matching degree of the flexibility demand and the flexibility resource supply in the system, namely evaluates whether the available flexibility resource in the system in each period meets the flexibility demand or not, and is mainly obtained through the proportion of the flexibility supply to the flexibility demand. The system payload model capable of reflecting the system flexibility requirement is obtained in the step S1, and the supply quantity of the flexibility resource, namely the flexibility provided by the generator set, is obtained in the step S2. The generator set can rapidly adjust the output according to the running state of the generator set so as to provide flexibility of up and down adjustment. When the flexibility supply can completely cover the flexibility requirement, the flexibility of the system is sufficient, and when the flexibility supply can not completely cover the flexibility requirement, the system needs to meet the flexibility requirement by adopting a wind discarding mode, a light discarding mode or configuring a larger number or larger capacity of flexibility resource supply equipment from the flexibility requirement side so as to ensure the supply and demand balance inside the system.
Thus, the flexibility supply and demand matching index F can be established according to the proportion of the flexibility total supply and the flexibility total demand CS The specific calculation mode is as follows:
wherein:and->Representing the total supply of flexibility available to the generator set in the system at time t and at time t-1, respectively; />And->Indicating the total demand for flexibility in wind, light and load at time t and at time t-1, respectively. />
Wherein,the calculation formula of the sum of the up-and-down adjustment flexibility provided for the thermal power generating unit or the sum of the up-and-down adjustment flexibility provided by the hydroelectric generating unit is as follows:
the calculation formula of (2) is shown as follows:
wherein:the upward and downward flexibility requirements of the system at time t are respectively.
The range of the index is limited to be [0,1 ]]. The index can intuitively and accurately reflect the flexibility supply and demand matching degree through the matching degree of the coverage areas of the flexibility total supply and flexibility total demand curves. F (F) CS The closer the value of (2) is to 1, the higher the flexibility supply-demand matching degree of the characterization system is, and the more flexible resources in the system are.
And S5, carrying out supply and demand matching evaluation on the type of the generator set on the power system supply side selected in the step S3 by adopting a flexible supply and demand matching index.
On the basis of the flexibility evaluation method, further, the flexibility supply range of the power system, the minimum flexibility supply level of the power system, the flexibility climbing rate of the power system, the unit flexibility evaluation index and the flexibility supply and demand matching index are respectively calculated, special scheduling of the system is performed according to the flexibility indexes, and the effectiveness and rationality of system configuration are improved.
Examples
And carrying out example analysis by using actual operation data of a power grid in a certain region of China, calculating related evaluation indexes of flexibility of a thermal power unit and a hydroelectric power unit in the system, wherein basic parameters of each related thermal power plant are shown in a table 1, and obtaining results are shown in fig. 2 and 3.
Table 1 examples provide basic parameters of related thermal power plants
| Thermal power plant | Thermal power plant (1) | Thermal power plant (2) | Thermal power plant (3) | Thermal power plant (4) | Thermal power plant (5) |
| capacity/MW | 600 | 270 | 700 | 1320 | 270 |
| Maximum force/MW | 600 | 270 | 700 | 1320 | 270 |
| Minimum technical force/MW | 300 | 60 | 300 | 500 | 60 |
| Climbing rate/MWh -1 | 600 | 160 | 420 | 360 | 160 |
Three indexes of the flexible power system supply range, the flexible minimum power system supply level and the flexible climbing rate of the power system of thermal power and hydropower are respectively represented in fig. 2. Wherein the power system flexible supply range l FSR And power system flexible climbing rate l FRR According to the definition and the calculation mode, the larger the index is, the better the flexible resource supply effect is; minimum supply level of power system flexibility FMSL The smaller the index, the lower the minimum supply level it can reach, the better the flexible resource supply effect of this kind. In summary, all flexibility evaluation indexes of the water and electricity in the area are better than those of the thermal powerTherefore, hydropower is prioritized in actual optimization scheduling, and the requirements of peak clipping and valley filling during stable operation of the power system are met by utilizing the strong flexible supply capacity in all aspects.
Fig. 3 shows the calculation results of the unit flexibility evaluation indexes of 5 thermal power plants in the region, and from the view point of the unit flexibility evaluation indexes, the unit flexibility of each thermal power plant is arranged from strong to weak, namely, thermal power plant (5) > thermal power plant (2) > thermal power plant (3) > thermal power plant (1) > thermal power plant (4), and each thermal power unit can be arranged for generating electricity according to the sequence in actual optimization scheduling. Meanwhile, the up-regulation flexibility and the down-regulation flexibility of each thermal power unit are also shown in fig. 3, and special scheduling can be performed according to the up-regulation flexibility and the down-regulation flexibility, for example, if the up-regulation flexibility is absent in a system at a certain moment, a thermal power plant (5) with a higher evaluation index of the up-regulation flexibility of the unit can be arranged to perform flexibility supply; if the system lacks down-regulation flexibility at a certain moment, a thermal power plant (2) with a higher unit down-regulation flexibility evaluation index can be arranged to carry out flexibility supply, so that system redundancy can be reduced, and running economy is improved.
The step S4 is used for calculating the graphs 4 and 5 to obtain the flexible supply and demand matching coefficient F of the graphs 4 and 5 CS 1 and 0.90, respectively. As can be seen from fig. 4 and 5, the index can intuitively and accurately reflect the flexibility supply and demand matching degree through the coverage area matching degree of the flexibility total supply and flexibility total demand curves. Flexible supply and demand matching coefficient F in FIG. 4 CS =1, intra-system flexibility requirements and supplies match exactly; flexible supply and demand matching coefficient F in FIG. 5 CS The flexibility supply within the system can meet the flexibility demand for most of the time, but there is a scenario of insufficient flexibility supply in some time periods. For example, the up-regulation flexibility is insufficient at 6 to 9 hours and 18 to 23 hours, and the down-regulation flexibility is insufficient at 10 to 16 hours. These periods of flexible undersupply are both up-peak and down-peak periods of the system payload, and the thermal power unit has reached its own maximum output as a flexible resource supply device, failing to provide additional flexible output. In this case, if it is desired to further improve the flexibility of the system for matching the supply and demand, a larger number or capacity of the systems can be allocatedActive resource supply equipment. It follows that the index enables an intuitive determination of the degree of matching of flexible supplies and demands within the system. F (F) CS The closer the value of (2) is to 1, the higher the flexibility supply-demand matching degree of the characterization system is, and the more flexible resources in the system are.
Starting from basic parameters of a generator set at a power supply side of a power system, the invention provides a power system flexibility supply range, a power system flexibility minimum supply level, a power system flexibility climbing rate, a unit flexibility evaluation index definition and a calculation mode thereof, and can carry out system special scheduling according to the flexibility indexes, thereby being beneficial to making a power system day-ahead scheduling plan; in order to better evaluate the matching degree between the available flexible resources and the flexible demands in the system, a flexible supply and demand matching index is further constructed, the matching degree of the flexible supply and demand in the system can be intuitively judged by the index, and the effectiveness and the rationality of the system configuration can be further improved on the basis of realizing the economic operation of the system.
The above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical scheme described in the foregoing embodiments can be modified or some or all of the technical features thereof can be replaced with equivalents; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention. The technology not related to the invention can be realized by the prior art.
Claims (10)
1. A flexibility evaluation method considering power system supply and demand matching is characterized in that: the flexibility evaluation method comprises the following steps:
s1, modeling uncertainty of new energy output and uncertainty of load prediction to obtain a system payload model capable of reflecting flexibility requirements of an electric power system;
s2, acquiring basic parameters of a generator set at a power system supply side, and constructing an up-regulation and down-regulation flexibility quantization model of the generator set;
s3, constructing flexibility evaluation indexes of the power system, and selecting the type of a generator set on the supply side of the power system;
s4, constructing a flexibility supply and demand matching index through a system payload model capable of reflecting the flexibility requirement of the power system in the step S1 and a flexibility quantification model of the generator set in the step S2;
and S5, carrying out supply and demand matching evaluation on the type of the generator set on the power system supply side selected in the step S3 by adopting a flexible supply and demand matching index.
2. The flexibility assessment method considering power system supply and demand matching according to claim 1, wherein: the system payload model in the step S1 is:
in the formula (7), the amino acid sequence of the compound,predicting a system payload value for a period t; />A load output predicted value in a t period; / >The predicted value of the wind power output in the t period is obtained; />The predicted value of the photovoltaic power generation output in the t period is set; />Actual system payload values for a period t; />Predicting an error for the system payload within a period t;
wherein the actual value of the system payload within the period tFor the actual load output value +.>Subtracting the actual value of wind power outputAnd the actual value of the photovoltaic power generation capacity +.>
In the formula (8), the amino acid sequence of the compound,actual system payload values for a period t; />The actual load output value in the t period;the actual value of the wind power output in the t period; />Generating an actual value of the photovoltaic power generation force in the t period;
system payload prediction errorShould also obey the standard deviation of the expected 0, systematic payload prediction error of +.>Normal distribution of systematic payload prediction error +.>Expressed as:
in the formula (9), the amino acid sequence of the compound,standard deviation of the system payload prediction error over a period t; />The standard deviation of the prediction error of the photovoltaic power generation output in the t period is set; />The standard deviation of the wind power output prediction error in the t period is shown; />The standard deviation of the load output prediction error in the t period.
3. The flexibility assessment method considering power system supply-demand matching according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: the uncertainty of the new energy output in the step S1 comprises wind power uncertainty and photovoltaic power generation uncertainty, wherein when the wind power uncertainty is modeled, a wind power output predicted value is obtained in a system operation period t For the actual value of wind power output +.>Error of wind power output prediction>And:
in the formula (1), the components are as follows,the predicted value of the wind power output in the t period is obtained; />The actual value of the wind power output in the t period; />The wind power output prediction error in the t period is calculated;
prediction error for wind power outputWind power output prediction error in each period t>Can be regarded as the expected value is 0, and the standard deviation of the wind power output prediction error is +.>Wherein the standard deviation of the wind power output prediction error is +.>Can be expressed as:
in the formula (2), the amino acid sequence of the compound,the standard deviation of the wind power output prediction error in the t period is shown; />The capacity of the total assembly machine of the fan;
when modeling the uncertainty of photovoltaic power generation, in the system operation period t, the predicted value of the photovoltaic power generation outputThe actual value of the power for photovoltaic power generation is +.>Prediction error of output of photovoltaic power generation>And (2) sum:
in the formula (3), the amino acid sequence of the compound,the predicted value of the photovoltaic power generation output in the t period is set; />Generating an actual value of the photovoltaic power generation force in the t period; />Generating a force prediction error for photovoltaic power generation within a t period;
prediction error for photovoltaic power generation outputPhotovoltaic power generation output prediction error +/within each period t>Can be regarded as the expected value is 0, and the standard deviation of the photovoltaic power generation output prediction error is +.>In which the standard deviation of the photovoltaic power generation output prediction error is +. >Can be expressed as:
in the formula (4), the amino acid sequence of the compound,and (5) generating standard deviation of the power prediction error for the photovoltaic power generation in the t period.
4. The flexibility assessment method considering power system supply-demand matching according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: in the modeling of the uncertainty of the load prediction in the step S1, the load output predicted valueIs made up of the actual load output value +.>And load output predictionError->Composition, the load output prediction error->Obeying the expectation of 0 and standard deviation of sigma L Is used for correcting the load output predicted value by generating random quantity>Then within each period t the load output predicted value +.>For the actual load output value +.>Error of load output prediction>The sum is shown in the following formula:
in the formula (5), the amino acid sequence of the compound,a load output predicted value in a t period; />The actual load output value in the t period; />Predicting error for load output in t period;
due to the load having a periodSex, standard deviation of load output prediction error in each period tEqual to the load output predicted value +.>Is defined as the percentage of:
in the formula (6), the amino acid sequence of the compound,the standard deviation of the load output prediction error in the t period.
5. The flexibility assessment method considering power system supply and demand matching according to claim 2, wherein: the system payload model in the step S1 can reflect the flexibility requirement of the power system, and the system flexibility requirement forecast value Fluctuation amount for actual value of system payload +.>And system payload fluctuation prediction error +.>And (2) sum:
in the formula (10), the amino acid sequence of the compound,predicting a value for system flexibility requirements in a t period; />A system payload prediction value for a period t+Δt; />Predicting a system payload value for a period t; />The fluctuation amount of the actual value of the net load of the system in the t period; />Predicting an error for the system payload fluctuation within a period t;
wherein the fluctuation amount of the actual value of the net load of the systemThe expression of (c) is the difference between the actual values of the system payload for the t+Δt period and the t period:
in the formula (11), the amino acid sequence of the compound,actual system payload values for a period t+Δt; />Actual system payload values for a period t;
prediction error of net load fluctuation of system in each period tStandard deviation of expected 0, systematic payload fluctuation prediction should be obeyed +.>Is a normal distribution of the system payload fluctuation predictions within each period t>The expression is:
in the formula (12), the amino acid sequence of the compound,the standard deviation of the prediction error of the net load fluctuation of the system in the t period; />Standard deviation of the system payload prediction error over a period of t+Δt; />The standard deviation of the system payload prediction error over the period t.
6. The flexibility assessment method considering power system supply and demand matching according to claim 1, wherein: the up-regulation and down-regulation flexibility quantization model of the generator set in the step S2 comprises an up-regulation and down-regulation flexibility quantization model of a thermal power unit and an up-regulation and down-regulation flexibility quantization model of a hydroelectric power unit:
In the formulae (13) - (14),respectively represents the up-regulation flexibility and the down-regulation flexibility which can be supplied by the thermal power generating unit,the up-regulation flexibility and the down-regulation flexibility which can be supplied by the hydroelectric generating set are respectively represented; />Respectively represent thermal power unit n TP The output power and maximum output power at time t, the minimum output power, respectively represent the hydroelectric generating set n HD Output power and maximum output power at time t, minimum output power, < >> Respectively represent the ascending climbing speed and the descending climbing speed of the thermal power generating unit, and the +.>Respectively representing the ascending climbing speed and the descending climbing speed of the hydroelectric generating set, wherein deltat represents a scheduling time interval;
the meanings shown in equation (13) and equation (14) are: the difference value between the maximum output power of the thermal power and the hydropower and the output power at a certain moment and the smaller value of the climbing capacity in the scheduling period are defined as the upward regulation flexibility of the thermal power and the upward regulation flexibility of the hydropower; the difference value between the output power and the minimum output power at a certain moment of thermal power and hydropower and the smaller value of the climbing capacity in the scheduling period are defined as the down-regulation flexibility of the thermal power and the down-regulation flexibility of the hydropower.
7. The flexibility assessment method considering power system supply and demand matching according to claim 1 or 6, wherein: the flexibility evaluation index of the power system in the step S3 includes a power system flexibility supply range index, a power system flexibility minimum supply level index, and a power system flexibility climbing rate index; when the type of the generator set at the power system supply side is selected, the minimum power system flexibility supply level index is preferentially used as a selection standard, the power system flexibility climbing rate index is used as a power system flexibility climbing rate index, and the power system flexibility supply range index is used as a power system flexibility supply range index.
8. The flexibility assessment method considering power system supply and demand matching as claimed in claim 7, wherein: the power system flexibility supply range index means a flexibility range which can be supplied by a certain type of generator set in a normal running state, and the specific calculation mode is as follows:
in the formula (15), l FSR Indicating the flexible supply range of the power system, l FSR The larger the flexible supply range of the unit is, otherwise, the smaller the flexible supply range is; n represents an nth certain type of generator set, and N represents the total number of the N generator sets of the certain type; p (P) n,min And P n,max Respectively representing the minimum stable operation power and the maximum output power of an nth unit of the type;
the minimum supply level index of the power system flexibility means the minimum supply level which can be provided by the flexibility of the power system in a normal running state for a certain type of generator set, and the specific calculation mode is as follows:
in the formula (16), l FMSL Indicating a power system flexibility minimum supply level, l FMSL The larger the power system, the less flexibility the generator set of the type can provide when the flexibility requirement appears in the power system, and conversely, the more flexibility is provided; n represents an nth certain type of generator set, and N represents the total number of the N generator sets of the certain type; p (P) n,min And P n,max Respectively representing the minimum stable operation power and the maximum output power of an nth unit of the type;
the flexible climbing rate index of the power system means the total climbing rate of flexible supply for a certain type of generator set, and the specific calculation mode is as follows:
in the formula (17), l FRR Indicating the flexible climbing rate of the power system, l FRR The larger the rate at which this type of unit provides flexibility, the faster the rate at which the unit provides flexibility, and conversely, the slower the rate at which the unit provides flexibility; n represents an nth certain type of generator set, and N represents the total number of the N generator sets of the certain type; r is R n Representing the climbing rate of an nth unit of the type; p (P) n,max Indicating the maximum output power of the nth unit of this type.
9. The flexibility assessment method considering power system supply and demand matching according to claim 1, wherein: the flexible supply and demand matching index F in the step S4 CS The ratio of the total demand for flexibility is covered according to the total supply of flexibility:
in the formula (20), the amino acid sequence of the compound,and->Representing the total supply of flexibility available to the generator set in the system at time t and at time t-1, respectively; />And->The total flexibility requirements of wind, light and load in the time t and the time t-1 are respectively shown;
wherein, The calculation formula of the sum of the up-and-down adjustment flexibility provided for the thermal power generating unit or the sum of the up-and-down adjustment flexibility provided by the hydroelectric generating unit is as follows:
the calculation formula of (2) is shown as follows:
in the formula (22), the amino acid sequence of the compound,the systems respectively in the time t are upward,Downward flexibility requirements.
10. The flexibility assessment method considering power system supply and demand matching according to claim 1 or 6, wherein: the flexibility evaluation indexes of the power system in the step S3 further include unit flexibility evaluation indexes, wherein the unit flexibility evaluation indexes include a unit up-regulation flexibility evaluation index, a unit down-regulation flexibility evaluation index and a unit comprehensive flexibility evaluation index, the unit up-regulation flexibility evaluation index and the unit down-regulation flexibility evaluation index are defined as the ratio of unit up-regulation flexibility, down-regulation flexibility supply capacity and maximum output power, and the specific calculation modes of the unit up-regulation flexibility evaluation index and the unit down-regulation flexibility evaluation index are as follows:
in the formula (18), the amino acid sequence of the compound,and->Respectively representing the up-regulation flexibility of the unit and the down-regulation flexibility of the unit, < ->The larger the unit is, the more up-regulation flexibility can be provided by the unit, otherwise, the less up-regulation flexibility is provided; />The larger the unit is, the more the unit can provide the down-regulation flexibility, otherwise, the less the unit can provide the down-regulation flexibility; r is R n Indicating the climbing capacity of the unit n; Δt represents a scheduling time interval;
in the formula (19), l UFEI Indicating the comprehensive flexibility of the unit, l UFEI The larger the unit is, the more comprehensive flexibility the unit can provide is shown; and conversely, the comprehensive flexibility is less.
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