CN117095831A - Method, system, medium and electronic equipment for monitoring sudden epidemic trend - Google Patents
Method, system, medium and electronic equipment for monitoring sudden epidemic trend Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of data prediction, in particular to a method, a system, a medium and electronic equipment for monitoring trend of sudden epidemic diseases. The method comprises the steps of normalizing according to the number of daily infected people to obtain standard sample data and establishing a standard normal distribution model; determining a start valueAnd corresponding probability densityPeriod of infection increase of epidemic diseaseDetermine epidemic diseaseDay cumulative infection probabilityRepresented asThe method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating the warning value of the current dayDay alert valueRepresented as，In order to enhance the coefficient of the coefficient,the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the For the warning value of the current dayFitting to obtain a warning line; and comparing the warning line with the standard sample data to judge the occurrence intensity of the epidemic disease. The method can effectively grasp the occurrence probability of epidemic diseases to quantify the occurrence intensity of the epidemic diseases, and greatly improve the timeliness and the authenticity of outbreak epidemic disease monitoring.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of data prediction, in particular to a method, a system, a medium and electronic equipment for monitoring trend of sudden epidemic diseases.
Background
Traditional epidemiological monitoring methods mainly rely on statistical reports and subsequent analysis, lack of real-time and dynamic properties, greatly limit the assessment of epidemic trend, and cannot quantify the occurrence intensity of epidemic.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve at least one of the defects of the prior art in sudden epidemic monitoring, the invention provides a sudden epidemic trend monitoring method, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring the number of daily infection people of epidemic diseases in a preset time in a target area; normalizing the data according to the daily number of infected people to obtain standard sample data, and establishing satisfaction about、/>Has a standardized normal distribution model;
determining a start valueStart value->Corresponding probability Density->Infection growth cycle of epidemic +.>Wherein, the method comprises the steps of, wherein,the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Determining epidemic +.f according to standard normal distribution model>Day cumulative infection probability->Represented asWherein->The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating the warning value +.>Day alert value->Denoted as->Wherein->To enhance the coefficient, and->；/>Is the standard deviation of the two-dimensional image,cumulative distribution function for said standard normal distribution model +.>Is an inverse function of (2); for the day alert value of each day within the preset time +.>Fitting to obtain a warning line;
the standard sample data is compared with a warning line to determine the intensity of occurrence of the epidemic.
In an embodiment, the start valueThe value range of (2) is +.>。
In an embodiment, the enhancement coefficientThe value range of (2) is +.>。
In an embodiment, the enhancement coefficientThe value of (2) is 1.2.
In one embodiment, the infection is increased for a period of timeGet->Integer part of (2), wherein>The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
;
in the method, in the process of the invention,indicating confidence level(s)>Indicating error, & lt>The value range of (2) is between 0.04 and 0.06.
In an embodiment, the method further comprises the steps of: outputting a sudden epidemic trend control chart according to the warning line and the standard sample data; if the standard sample data is lower than the warning line, indicating that no sudden epidemic disease occurs; if part of the standard sample data is positioned near the warning line, the sudden epidemic disease is just happened and the epidemic intensity is not strong; and if part of the standard sample data exceeds the warning line, indicating that the sudden epidemic disease is happening and the epidemic intensity is stronger.
The invention also provides a sudden epidemic trend monitoring system, which comprises:
the standard normal distribution model building module is used for obtaining the number of daily infection people of epidemic diseases in a preset time in a target area; normalizing the data according to the daily number of infected people to obtain standard sample data, and establishing satisfaction about、/>Is a standard normal distribution model of (2);
a warning line fitting calculation module for determining a starting valueStart value->Corresponding probability Density->Infection growth cycle of epidemic +.>Wherein->The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Determining epidemic +.f according to standard normal distribution model>Day cumulative infection probability->Denoted as->Wherein->The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating the warning value +.>Day alert value->Denoted as->Wherein->To enhance the coefficient, and->；/>Is standard deviation (S)>Cumulative distribution function for said standard normal distribution model +.>Is an inverse function of (2); for the day alert value of each day within the preset time +.>Fitting to obtain a warning line;
and the early warning judging module is used for comparing the standard sample data with the warning line to determine the occurrence intensity of epidemic diseases.
In one embodiment, the system further comprises an image output module for outputting a sudden epidemic trend control chart according to the guard line and the standard sample data.
The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements a method for monitoring a trend of sudden epidemics as described in any of the embodiments above.
The invention also provides an electronic device comprising a processor and a memory, wherein at least one instruction is stored in the memory, and the instruction is loaded and executed by the processor to implement the method for monitoring sudden epidemic trend according to any embodiment.
Based on the above, compared with the prior art, the method for monitoring the trend of the sudden epidemic disease provided by the invention designs the warning line by utilizing the normally distributed trend, and plays a role in warning by comparing with the warning line, thereby grasping the occurrence probability of the epidemic disease to quantify the occurrence intensity of the epidemic disease, and greatly improving the timeliness and the authenticity of the monitoring of the sudden epidemic disease.
Additional features and advantages of the invention will be set forth in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention. The objectives and other advantages of the invention will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and claims hereof as well as the appended drawings.
Drawings
For a clearer description of embodiments of the invention or of the solutions of the prior art, the drawings that are needed in the description of the embodiments or of the prior art will be briefly described, it being obvious that the drawings in the description below are some embodiments of the invention, and that other drawings can be obtained from them without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art; the positional relationships described in the drawings in the following description are based on the orientation of the elements shown in the drawings unless otherwise specified.
FIG. 1 is a flowchart illustrating steps of a method for monitoring a trend of sudden epidemic diseases according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a graph of standard sample data normalized to data for the number of daily infestations in the first 100 days;
FIG. 3 is a graph of a sudden epidemic trend control corresponding to the standard sample data of FIG. 2;
FIG. 4 is a graph of standard sample data normalized to data for the number of daily infections in the second group of 100 days;
FIG. 5 is a graph of a sudden epidemic trend control corresponding to the standard sample data of FIG. 4;
FIG. 6 is a graph of standard sample data normalized to data for the number of daily infections in the third group of 100 days;
fig. 7 is a graph of a sudden epidemic trend control corresponding to the standard sample data of fig. 6.
Detailed Description
For the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clear, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments of the present invention; the technical features designed in the different embodiments of the invention described below can be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other; all other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that all terms used in the present invention (including technical terms and scientific terms) have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which the present invention belongs and are not to be construed as limiting the present invention; it will be further understood that terms used herein should be interpreted as having a meaning that is consistent with their meaning in the context of this specification and the relevant art and will not be interpreted in an idealized or overly formal sense unless expressly so defined herein.
Example 1
As shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides a method for monitoring a trend of sudden epidemic diseases, comprising the following steps:
s10, acquiring the number of daily infectious people with epidemic diseases in a preset time in a target area; normalizing the data according to the daily number of infected people to obtain standard sample data, and establishing satisfaction about、/>Is a standard normal distribution model of (2);
wherein compliance is obtained by collecting daily number of infected persons over a predetermined period of time and performing a mean and standard deviation calculationNormal distribution of (2), and let ∈ ->、/>To normalize and accumulate the data to form a new array,thus, a standard normal distribution model was obtained for the number of daily infections.
It should be noted that, since the intensity of epidemic occurrence is determined based on the number of infected people increasing in the forward direction, in the standard normal distribution model of the arc line in the embodiment of the invention, the method comprises the following steps ofIs the center line, is only located +>The probability curve on the left half corresponds to a positive increment with a probability of 0.5, so that the embodiment of the invention takes only +.>The probability curve on the left hand side is analyzed. That is, the embodiment of the invention sets the probability that the epidemic occurrence intensity is high if the increment reaches 0.5, and then performs early warning. The following increases the probability of daily infection>Is designed based on the 0.5 probability.
S20, determining a start valueStart value->Corresponding probability Density->Infection growth cycle of epidemic +.>Wherein->The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Determining epidemic +.f according to standard normal distribution model>Day cumulative infection probability->Represented asWherein->The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating the warning value +.>Day alert value->Denoted as->Wherein->To enhance the coefficient, and->；/>Is the standard deviation of the two-dimensional image,cumulative distribution function for said standard normal distribution model +.>Is an inverse function of (2); for the day alert value of each day within the preset time +.>Fitting is performed to obtain an alert.
In practice, according to normal distributionIn principle, the values are distributed +.>The probability of (2) is 0.6526, the number is distributed in +.>The probability of (2) is 0.9544, the number is distributed in +.>If the probability of (2) is 0.9974, then it can be deduced that the random variable occurs at +.>The probability in this interval is equal to 0.0215, i.e. the probability that a random variable occurs in this interval is already very low. Thus, one can choose +.>As an initial value, in this embodiment the initial value +.>The value range of (2) is +.>. More preferably, in this embodiment, the start value +.>Taking out. It should be noted that the start value +.>Is selected to satisfy the corresponding probability density +.>Small and free from mutation, the specific value is selected according to the actual requirement, and the method is not limited. Probability Density->Then according to the initial value->By checkingAnd polling a normally distributed probability table.
Wherein an initial value is setThe purpose is on the one hand to initialize a start control line, pull up the start value of the guard line for generating random variables at +.>The numerical value of extremely low probability is screened out, namely, the device can automatically screen out some non-strong common seasonal influenza, and frequent epidemic disease monitoring alarm caused by the occurrence of the common seasonal influenza is avoided, so that the accuracy of epidemic disease monitoring is improved. On the other hand, to set the initialization of probability, the probability inverse function +.>In (I)>Is taken to infinity resulting in the current day alert value +.>And (3) the problem of invalid calculation. Thus, by the start value->Can shield +.>The probability of being taken to infinity is more effective in judging the intensity degree of epidemic occurrence.
In addition, the infection increases the periodThe determination can be made according to the growth period of epidemic disease in the past, specifically according to the sum of the precursor period of epidemic disease and the occurrence time of symptom obvious period, for example, the infection growth period can be assumed>For 10 days. The infection increases the period->And the method can also adopt an average value test sample quantity estimation method to carry out the real operation. In particular, a reasonable estimate can be made from a sampled sample of the number of people infected daily. That is, the number of sample samples +.>The calculation formula of (2) can be set to +.>The formula can also be used to calculate the number of whole samples required. Wherein (1)>Representing error probability +.>Confidence of->，/>Representing the degree of assurance->Confidence of->；/>Indicating error, & lt>The value range of (2) is between 0.04 and 0.06. In the case of a confidence interval of 95%>Take 1.96. In (1) the->Standard deviation of epidemic occurrence +.>Expressed as the product of the probability of occurrence of an epidemic and the probability of non-occurrence of an epidemic, i.e., in the embodiment of the present invention,/->In summary, since the present embodiment focuses on only half of the normal distribution, i.e. only on half of the sample size, the infection growth period +.>The value of (2) should be +.>Integer part of (i.e.)>The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
in the method, in the process of the invention,indicating confidence level(s)>Indicating error, & lt>The value range of (2) is between 0.04 and 0.06. In the present embodiment of the present invention,take 1.96.
At the start valueGet->，/>Taking 1.96 as an example, the normal distribution probability table is obtained>Get->In the time-course of which the first and second contact surfaces,then->，/>；，/>Thus, it is->The range of the value is 5-12, and the preferred range is 10 days.
During the period of infection growthAfter the determination, the daily infection growth probability +.>Denoted as->The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Then->Cumulative infection probability accumulated on day->Represented asWherein->. Samples of the number of infected persons who pass each day are continuously collected and added when the infection probability +.>When the accumulation reaches 0.5, the epidemic beginning outbreak is indicated, and early warning reminding can be made. Therefore, in fitting the warning line, the probability of growing according to daily infection +.>The formula of (2) can give epidemic +.>Day cumulative infection probability->Thereby obtaining the normal distribution cumulative probability inverse function +.>。
Further, the current day alert valueThe calculation formula of (2) is +.>Wherein->To enhance the coefficient, and->. Wherein the enhancement factor->The design of (2) can improve the rising trend of the warning line. The number of people infected per day in this exampleAccording to the standardized treatment, mean +.>Standard deviation->. In the period of infection growth->And initial value->After the determination, the initial maximum rising trend is fixed, but since the average value in this embodiment is calculated from the data of the number of infected people per day, before the epidemic outbreak, the average value will be lower, and the rising of the corresponding warning line will be smaller, so that there is a problem of erroneous judgment. Therefore, the present embodiment is implemented by checking the day alert value +.>Is multiplied by an enhancement factor +.>To avoid misjudgment warning and improve the accuracy of sudden epidemic disease judgment. Preferably, the enhancement factor ++>The value range of (2) is +.>. More preferably, in this embodiment, said enhancement factor +.>The value of (2) is 1.2.
The daily number of infected people recorded by daily collection can be used for obtaining the daily day alert value by adopting the methodFor the day alert value of each day +.>And (5) sampling fitting is carried out, and a warning line can be obtained. The sampling fitting mode can adopt, but is not limited to, a least square curve fitting method, a polynomial fitting method, a linear fitting method and the like.
S30, comparing the standard sample data with the warning line to determine the occurrence intensity of epidemic diseases.
When the method is implemented, if the standard sample data is lower than the warning line, the fact that the sudden epidemic disease does not occur is indicated; if part of the standard sample data is near the warning line, the sudden epidemic disease is just happened and the epidemic intensity is not strong; and if part of the standard sample data exceeds the warning line, indicating that the sudden epidemic disease is happening and the epidemic intensity is stronger.
The comparison of the warning line and the standard sample data obtained by the method can effectively monitor and feed back the occurrence trend of the sudden pandemic, can not alarm the non-strong seasonal influenza, improves the monitoring accuracy, does not need too many samples, can obtain better early warning sensitivity and specificity for various data types, and improves the timeliness and the authenticity of epidemic sudden monitoring to a great extent.
In an embodiment, the method further comprises the steps of: outputting a sudden epidemic trend control chart according to the warning line and the standard sample data; if the standard sample data is lower than the warning line, indicating that the sudden epidemic disease does not occur; if part of the standard sample data is positioned near the warning line, the sudden epidemic disease is just happened and the epidemic intensity is not strong; and if part of the standard sample data exceeds the warning line, indicating that the sudden epidemic disease is happening and the epidemic intensity is stronger. Through the visual display of the trend control chart of the sudden epidemic disease, the trend status of epidemic disease transmission can be quickly known, and the real-time analysis of the epidemic disease trend is facilitated, so that the decision making and the public health intervention measure making are effectively supported.
In order to illustrate and verify the effectiveness of the method of the present invention, the embodiment uses standard sample data, which is shown in fig. 2 and is standardized by data, of the number of daily infections in 100 days as a sample, and uses the method to perform warning line fitting and sample data fitting, so as to obtain a sudden epidemic trend control chart corresponding to the standard sample data shown in fig. 3. As can be seen from fig. 3, all the sample data are below the warning line, indicating that everything is normal and no sudden epidemic is occurring; in this embodiment, standard sample data of the number of daily infections subjected to data standardization within 100 days as shown in fig. 4 is used as a sample, and the warning line fitting and the sample data fitting are performed by adopting the method, so that a sudden epidemic trend control chart corresponding to the standard sample data as shown in fig. 5 can be obtained. As can be seen from FIG. 5, the guard line is relatively sharp, a small number of data samples are close to the guard line and have small-amplitude protrusions, which indicate that epidemic diseases are occurring, but the epidemic intensity is not strong, and only a common and slightly stronger seasonal influenza is caused; in this embodiment, standard sample data of the number of daily infections subjected to data standardization within 100 days as shown in fig. 6 is used as a sample, and the warning line fitting and the sample data fitting are performed by adopting the method described above, so that a sudden epidemic trend control chart corresponding to the standard sample data as shown in fig. 7 can be obtained. As can be seen from FIG. 7, the warning line forms a relatively smooth continuous positive-going profile, the data samples are above the warning line with a relatively large degree of deviation and experience multiple warning line peaks, indicating that epidemics are occurring, and that the popularity is strong and positive precautions need to be taken. Moreover, the appearance time of the peak of the burst monitoring curve obtained by the method is approximately consistent with the appearance time of the peak of ILI (influenza-like cases account for the percentage of clinic quantity), which further explains the effectiveness and accuracy of the method.
Example two
The invention also provides a sudden epidemic trend monitoring system, which comprises:
the standard normal distribution model building module is used for obtaining the number of daily infection people of epidemic diseases in a preset time in a target area; normalizing the data according to the daily number of infected people to obtain standard sample data, and establishing satisfaction about、/>Is a standard normal distribution model of (2);
a warning line fitting calculation module for determining a starting valueStart value->Corresponding probability Density->Infection growth cycle of epidemic +.>Wherein->The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Determining epidemic +.f according to standard normal distribution model>Day cumulative infection probability->Denoted as->Wherein->The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating the warning value +.>Day alert value->Denoted as->Wherein->To enhance the coefficient, and->；/>Is standard deviation (S)>Cumulative distribution function for said standard normal distribution model +.>Is an inverse function of (2); for the day alert value of each day within the preset time +.>Fitting to obtain a warning line;
and the early warning judging module is used for comparing the standard sample data with the warning line to determine the occurrence intensity of epidemic diseases.
In one embodiment, the system further comprises an image output module for outputting a sudden epidemic trend control chart according to the guard line and the standard sample data.
The sudden epidemic trend monitoring system provided by the implementation of the invention can timely know and monitor the transmission of sudden epidemic diseases. The specific functions, actions and methods of each module may refer to the content of the first embodiment, and are not described herein.
Example III
An embodiment of the present invention provides a computer readable storage medium storing computer instructions that when executed by a processor implement the method for monitoring a sudden epidemic trend as described in the first embodiment.
In specific implementation, the computer readable storage medium is a magnetic Disk, an optical Disk, a Read-only Memory (ROM), a random access Memory (Random Access Memory, RAM), a Flash Memory (Flash Memory), a Hard Disk (HDD) or a Solid State Drive (SSD); the computer readable storage medium may also include a combination of the above types of memory.
Example IV
An embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, including at least one processor, and a memory communicatively connected to the processor, where the memory stores instructions executable by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor to cause the processor to perform a method for monitoring a sudden epidemic trend as described in the first embodiment above.
In particular, the number of processors may be one or more, and the processors may be central processing units (Central Processing Unit, CPU). The processor may also be any other general purpose processor, digital signal processor (Digital Signal Processor, DSP), application specific integrated circuit (Application Specific Integrated Circuit, ASIC), field programmable gate array (Field-Programmable Gate Array, FPGA) or other programmable logic device, discrete gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components, or any combination thereof. A general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like.
The memory may be communicatively coupled to the processors via a bus or other means, the memory storing instructions executable by the at least one processor to cause the processor to perform the method of monitoring a trend of sudden epidemics as described in the above embodiment one.
In summary, compared with the prior art, the method, the system medium and the electronic device for monitoring the trend of the sudden epidemic disease have the following advantages: the warning line is designed by utilizing the normally distributed trend, and the warning effect is achieved through the comparison with the warning line, so that the probability of epidemic occurrence is mastered to quantify the occurrence intensity of epidemic, and the timeliness and the authenticity of outbreak epidemic monitoring are improved to a great extent.
In addition, it should be understood by those skilled in the art that although many problems exist in the prior art, each embodiment or technical solution of the present invention may be modified in only one or several respects, without having to solve all technical problems listed in the prior art or the background art at the same time. Those skilled in the art will understand that nothing in one claim should be taken as a limitation on that claim.
Although terms such as the number of infected persons per day, a standard normal distribution model, a start value, a probability density, an infection growth period, a current day alert value, a warning line, an enhancement coefficient, a standard normal distribution model establishment module, a warning line fitting calculation module, an early warning judgment module, an image output module, etc. are used more herein, the possibility of using other terms is not excluded. These terms are used merely for convenience in describing and explaining the nature of the invention; they are to be interpreted as any additional limitation that is not inconsistent with the spirit of the present invention; the terms first, second, and the like in the description and in the claims of embodiments of the invention and in the above-described figures, if any, are used for distinguishing between similar elements and not necessarily for describing a particular sequential or chronological order.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical scheme described in the foregoing embodiments can be modified or some or all of the technical features thereof can be replaced by equivalents; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the spirit of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for monitoring a trend of sudden epidemic, comprising the steps of:
acquiring the number of daily infection people of epidemic diseases in a preset time in a target area; normalizing the data according to the daily number of infected people to obtain standard sample data, and establishing satisfaction about、/>Is a standard normal distribution model of (2);
determining a start valueStart value->Corresponding probability Density->Infection growth cycle of epidemic +.>Wherein, the method comprises the steps of, wherein,the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Determining epidemic +.f according to standard normal distribution model>Day cumulative infection probability->Represented asWherein->The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating the warning value +.>Day alert value->Denoted as->Wherein->To enhance the coefficient, and->；/>Is the standard deviation of the two-dimensional image,cumulative distribution function for said standard normal distribution model +.>Is an inverse function of (2); for the day alert value of each day within the preset time +.>Fitting to obtain a warning line;
the standard sample data is compared with a warning line to determine the intensity of occurrence of the epidemic.
2. The method for monitoring a trend of sudden epidemic according to claim 1, wherein: the start valueThe value range of (2) is +.>。
3. The method for monitoring a trend of sudden epidemic according to claim 1, wherein: the enhancement coefficientThe value range of (2) is +.>。
4. According to claimThe method for monitoring the trend of the sudden epidemic disease is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the enhancement coefficientThe value of (2) is 1.2.
5. The method for monitoring a trend of sudden epidemic according to claim 1, wherein: the period of infection increasesGet->Integer part of (2), wherein>The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
;
in the method, in the process of the invention,indicating confidence level(s)>Indicating error, & lt>The value range of (2) is between 0.04 and 0.06.
6. The method for monitoring a trend of sudden epidemic according to any one of claims 1 to 5, further comprising the steps of: outputting a sudden epidemic trend control chart according to the warning line and the standard sample data; if the standard sample data is lower than the warning line, indicating that no sudden epidemic disease occurs; if part of the standard sample data is positioned near the warning line, the sudden epidemic disease is just happened and the epidemic intensity is not strong; and if part of the standard sample data exceeds the warning line, indicating that the sudden epidemic disease is happening and the epidemic intensity is stronger.
7. A sudden epidemic trend monitoring system, comprising:
the standard normal distribution model building module is used for obtaining the number of daily infection people of epidemic diseases in a preset time in a target area; normalizing the data according to the daily number of infected people to obtain standard sample data, and establishing satisfaction about、Is a standard normal distribution model of (2);
a warning line fitting calculation module for determining a starting valueStart value->Corresponding probability Density->Infection growth cycle of epidemic +.>Wherein->The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Determining epidemic +.f according to standard normal distribution model>Day cumulative infection probabilityDenoted as->Wherein->The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating the warning value +.>Day alert value->Denoted as->Wherein->To enhance the coefficient, and->；/>Is standard deviation (S)>Cumulative distribution function for said standard normal distribution model +.>Is an inverse function of (2); for the day alert value of each day within the preset time +.>Fitting to obtain a warning line;
and the early warning judging module is used for comparing the standard sample data with the warning line to determine the occurrence intensity of epidemic diseases.
8. The sudden epidemic trend monitoring system according to claim 7, wherein: and the image output module is used for outputting a sudden epidemic trend control chart according to the warning line and the standard sample data.
9. A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, characterized by: the program when executed by a processor implements the method for monitoring sudden epidemic trend as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 6.
10. An electronic device, characterized in that: the electronic device comprising a processor and a memory having at least one instruction stored therein, the instruction being loaded and executed by the processor to implement the method of sudden epidemic trend monitoring according to any one of claims 1-6.
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