CN117034197A - Enterprise power consumption typical mode analysis method based on multidimensional Isolate-detection multi-point detection - Google Patents
Enterprise power consumption typical mode analysis method based on multidimensional Isolate-detection multi-point detection Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
本发明提出一种基于多维Isolate‑Detect多变点检测的企业用电典型模式分析方法,首先根据收集到的产业用电时间序列数据进行数据清洗;再对数据清洗后的数据进行季节分解,剔除数据的周期性模式,提取出数据的残差项;基于多维Isolate‑Detect对分解后得到的残差项进行多维变点检测,在每个划分出的时间区间内只检测单个变点,使得对于多维度的用电曲线中的变点检测更准确、计算效率更高;再结合均值检验统计量和最大值检验统计量得到可能的变点集合;对所检测到的变点集合采用多序列融合对可能的变点集合进行筛选,确定最终的用电量数据变点位置;最后基于所得到的变点位置对标准化后的时间序列数据进行划分,提取出用电量的典型用电行为。
This invention proposes a method for analyzing typical patterns of enterprise electricity consumption based on multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect multi-change point detection. First, the data is cleaned based on the collected industrial electricity consumption time series data; then the cleaned data is decomposed into seasons and eliminated. Based on the periodic pattern of the data, the residual terms of the data are extracted; multi-dimensional change point detection is performed on the residual terms obtained after decomposition based on multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect, and only a single change point is detected in each divided time interval, so that for The change point detection in the multi-dimensional power consumption curve is more accurate and the calculation efficiency is higher; combined with the mean test statistic and the maximum test statistic, a possible change point set is obtained; multi-sequence fusion is used for the detected change point set Screen the set of possible change points to determine the final change point position of the electricity consumption data; finally, divide the standardized time series data based on the obtained change point positions to extract the typical electricity consumption behavior of electricity consumption.
Description
技术领域Technical field
本发明涉及电力数据分析技术领域,尤其是一种基于多维Isolate-Detect多变点检测的企业用电典型模式分析方法。The invention relates to the technical field of power data analysis, in particular to a method for analyzing typical patterns of enterprise power consumption based on multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect multi-change point detection.
背景技术Background technique
随着电网信息化程度的不断提升,数字化和智能化的快速发展,电力行业已经步入电力大数据时代。作为经济发展和人类生活依赖的能源系统,电力系统运行时会产生数量庞大、增长迅速、类型丰富的数据。对用电行为进行分析可以发现电力大数据中的规律、关系、趋势等,以获悉用电特性。因此对各个产业检测共同变点、提取典型用电行为,可以更好地分析了解电力消耗情况、了解用电特点和用电行为,为电力供应和管理提供有力的支持。With the continuous improvement of power grid informatization and the rapid development of digitalization and intelligence, the power industry has entered the era of power big data. As an energy system on which economic development and human life depend, the power system generates a large amount of data with rapid growth and rich types during operation. Analyzing electricity consumption behavior can discover patterns, relationships, trends, etc. in electricity big data to understand the characteristics of electricity consumption. Therefore, detecting common change points and extracting typical electricity consumption behaviors in various industries can better analyze and understand electricity consumption, understand electricity consumption characteristics and electricity consumption behaviors, and provide strong support for power supply and management.
但产业用电数据表现出用电量大、各产业用电规律复杂等缺点,同时数据还具有周期性、季节性等特点,这为用电行为分析带来了挑战。如今的电力数据具有高维度、多类型和大体量的特点,对数据分析技术有了更高的要求。However, industrial electricity consumption data shows shortcomings such as large electricity consumption and complex electricity consumption patterns in various industries. At the same time, the data also has periodic and seasonal characteristics, which brings challenges to the analysis of electricity consumption behavior. Today's power data is characterized by high dimensions, multiple types and large volumes, which places higher requirements on data analysis technology.
发明内容Contents of the invention
因此,针对现有技术存在的空白和不足,本发明提出一种基于多维Isolate-Detect多变点检测的企业用电典型模式分析方法,用于改进传统的用电行为分析模型未考虑时序性和阶段性变化的缺点,针对产业用电时序数据,建立多维Isol ate-Detect模型,检测产业的共同变点并提取典型用电行为。基于历史用电数据,提取工作日中的一天和周末中的一天,以检测工作日与周末的用电行为差异;利用多维Isolated-Detect算法进行变点检测,提高了变点检测精度;最后基于检测的变点位置,对用电时序数据分段提取典型用电行为。Therefore, in view of the gaps and deficiencies in the existing technology, the present invention proposes a typical enterprise power consumption pattern analysis method based on multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect multi-change point detection, which is used to improve the traditional power consumption behavior analysis model that does not consider timing and To address the shortcomings of phased changes, a multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect model is established based on industrial power consumption time series data to detect common change points in the industry and extract typical power consumption behaviors. Based on historical electricity consumption data, extract one day on weekdays and one day on weekends to detect the difference in electricity consumption behavior between weekdays and weekends; use the multi-dimensional Isolated-Detect algorithm for change point detection, which improves the accuracy of change point detection; finally, based on Based on the detected change point position, the typical power consumption behavior is extracted from the power consumption time series data in segments.
其主要步骤包括数据收集、数据清洗、残差项提取、变点检测、变点筛选、提取典型用电行为。首先根据收集到的产业用电时间序列数据进行数据清洗;再对数据清洗后的数据进行季节分解,剔除数据的周期性模式,提取出数据的残差项;基于多维Isolate-Detect对分解后得到的残差项进行多维变点检测,在每个划分出的时间区间内只检测单个变点,使得其对于多维度的用电曲线中的变点检测更准确、计算效率更高。结合均值检验统计量和最大值检验统计量得到可能的变点集合;对所检测到的变点集合采用多序列融合对可能的变点集合进行筛选,确定最终的用电量数据变点位置;最后基于所得到的变点位置对标准化后的时间序列数据进行划分,提取出用电量的典型用电行为。本发明提出的多维Isolate-Det ect方法,考虑到了多维数据之间的序列相关性,可以有效检测出多维数据的共同变点,提高了多维变点检测的精度。从而得到更真实客观的时序用电场景,可以在后续规划中制定更加合理的用电策略。Its main steps include data collection, data cleaning, residual term extraction, change point detection, change point screening, and extraction of typical electricity consumption behaviors. First, the data is cleaned based on the collected industrial electricity consumption time series data; then the cleaned data is decomposed into seasons, the periodic patterns of the data are eliminated, and the residual terms of the data are extracted; based on the multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect pair decomposition, we get The residual term is used for multi-dimensional change point detection, and only a single change point is detected in each divided time interval, making it more accurate and more computationally efficient for change point detection in multi-dimensional power consumption curves. Combining the mean test statistic and the maximum test statistic to obtain the possible change point set; use multi-sequence fusion to filter the possible change point set for the detected change point set, and determine the final change point position of the electricity consumption data; Finally, the standardized time series data is divided based on the obtained change point positions, and the typical electricity consumption behavior of electricity consumption is extracted. The multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect method proposed by the present invention takes into account the sequence correlation between multi-dimensional data, can effectively detect the common change points of multi-dimensional data, and improves the accuracy of multi-dimensional change point detection. In this way, a more realistic and objective time-series power consumption scenario can be obtained, and a more reasonable power consumption strategy can be formulated in subsequent planning.
其具体采用以下技术方案:It specifically adopts the following technical solutions:
一种基于多维Isolate-Detect多变点检测的企业用电典型模式分析方法,其特征在于:首先根据收集到的产业用电时间序列数据进行数据清洗;再对数据清洗后的数据进行季节分解,剔除数据的周期性模式,提取出数据的残差项;基于多维Isolate-Detect对分解后得到的残差项进行多维变点检测,在每个划分出的时间区间内只检测单个变点,使得对于多维度的用电曲线中的变点检测更准确、计算效率更高;再结合均值检验统计量和最大值检验统计量得到可能的变点集合;对所检测到的变点集合采用多序列融合对可能的变点集合进行筛选,确定最终的用电量数据变点位置;最后基于所得到的变点位置对标准化后的时间序列数据进行划分,提取出用电量的典型用电行为。A method for analyzing typical patterns of enterprise electricity consumption based on multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect multi-change point detection, which is characterized by: firstly performing data cleaning based on the collected industrial electricity consumption time series data; and then performing seasonal decomposition on the cleaned data. Eliminate the periodic patterns of the data and extract the residual terms of the data; perform multi-dimensional change point detection on the residual terms obtained after decomposition based on multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect, and only detect a single change point in each divided time interval, so that The detection of change points in the multi-dimensional power consumption curve is more accurate and the calculation efficiency is higher; combined with the mean test statistic and the maximum test statistic, a possible change point set is obtained; a multi-sequence method is used for the detected change point set Fusion screens the set of possible change points to determine the final change point position of the electricity consumption data; finally, the standardized time series data is divided based on the obtained change point positions, and the typical electricity consumption behavior of electricity consumption is extracted.
进一步地,包括以下步骤:Further, include the following steps:
步骤1:收集各个产业的用电量时序数据;Step 1: Collect electricity consumption time series data of various industries;
步骤2:对各产业的用电量时序数据进行缺失值填充,提取出工作日的某天用电数据或周末的某天用电数据,利用3σ原则剔除异常值,再进行标准化处理;Step 2: Fill in the missing values of the electricity consumption time series data of each industry, extract the electricity consumption data of a certain day on weekdays or a certain day of weekends, use the 3σ principle to eliminate outliers, and then perform standardization processing;
步骤3:将清洗后的数据先进行平滑处理,再对平滑后的数据进行季节分解,剔除数据的周期性和趋势性,得到平滑处理后的数据的残差项;Step 3: Smooth the cleaned data first, then perform seasonal decomposition on the smoothed data, eliminate the periodicity and trend of the data, and obtain the residual term of the smoothed data;
步骤4:计算各产业用电数据残差项的每个时间点的CUSUM统计量,再计算每个时间点的CUSUM统计量的均值和最大值,分别记为M检验统计量和T检验统计量;Step 4: Calculate the CUSUM statistic at each time point of the residual term of the electricity consumption data of each industry, and then calculate the mean and maximum value of the CUSUM statistic at each time point, which are recorded as M test statistic and T test statistic respectively. ;
步骤5:利用Isolate-Detect算法检测各产业用电数据的共同变点,根据Isolate-Detect算法的阈值公式预设阈值,判定M检验统计量超过阈值的时间点为变点,将得到的变点放入变点集中,记为变点集合CP_M;判定T检验统计量超过阈值的时间点为变点,将得到的变点放入变点集中,记为变点集合CP_T;Step 5: Use the Isolate-Detect algorithm to detect common change points in the electricity consumption data of various industries, preset the threshold according to the threshold formula of the Isolate-Detect algorithm, and determine the time point when the M test statistic exceeds the threshold as the change point. The obtained change point Put it into the change point set and record it as the change point set CP_M; determine the time point when the T test statistic exceeds the threshold as the change point, put the obtained change point into the change point set and record it as the change point set CP_T;
步骤6:将利用数据分析得到的变点集合记为变点集合CP,将集合CP_M中和集合CP_T中差值绝对值小于3的两个元素取出,选择较小的值放入集合CP,得到最后的变点集合;Step 6: Record the change point set obtained through data analysis as the change point set CP. Take out the two elements whose absolute difference is less than 3 in the set CP_M and the set CP_T, and select the smaller value to put into the set CP, and get The final set of change points;
步骤7:基于所得到的变点位置对标准化后的用电时序数据进行分段,对每一段时序数据的各个产业用电量求均值,得到每段时序数据的典型用电行为。Step 7: Segment the standardized electricity consumption time series data based on the obtained change point position, average the electricity consumption of each industry for each period of time series data, and obtain the typical electricity consumption behavior of each period of time series data.
进一步地,步骤2中,填充各产业用电数据中的缺失值后,分别提取工作日中的某一天用电数据和周末中某一天的用电数据进行后续数据分析,对工作日和周末的产业用电行为差异进行分析;利用3σ原则剔除异常值,避免异常值对于后续用电行为分析的影响。Further, in step 2, after filling in the missing values in the electricity consumption data of each industry, the electricity consumption data of a certain day in the working day and the electricity consumption data of a certain day in the weekend are respectively extracted for subsequent data analysis. Analyze differences in industrial electricity consumption behavior; use the 3σ principle to eliminate outliers to avoid the impact of outliers on subsequent analysis of electricity consumption behavior.
进一步地,步骤3中,对清洗后的数据,使用Savitzky-Golay滤波器对数据进行平滑,当损失函数取得最小值时,原始数据的拟合效果达到最优;通过滑动窗口得到原始数据平滑后的拟合值,以有效降低数据的噪音。Furthermore, in step 3, the Savitzky-Golay filter is used to smooth the cleaned data. When the loss function obtains the minimum value, the fitting effect of the original data reaches the optimal value; the smoothed original data is obtained through the sliding window. fitting value to effectively reduce the noise of the data.
进一步地,步骤3中,对于平滑后的数据,采用加法模型进行趋势性分解,将平滑后的用电量数据分解为趋势部分、周期部分和残差项部分,以剔除数据的周期性和趋势性,表示如下:Further, in step 3, for the smoothed data, an additive model is used for trend decomposition, and the smoothed electricity consumption data is decomposed into the trend part, the periodic part and the residual part to eliminate the periodicity and trend of the data. Sex, expressed as follows:
Xi,t=Ti,t+Si,t+Ci,t+Ii,t, (7)X i,t =T i,t +S i,t +C i,t +I i,t , (7)
其中,Ti代表第i个产业的长期时间趋势,Si代表第i个产业的季节性时间趋势,Ci代表第i个产业的周期性时间趋势,Ii代表第i个产业的剩余的残差项。Among them, T i represents the long-term time trend of the i-th industry, S i represents the seasonal time trend of the i-th industry, C i represents the cyclic time trend of the i-th industry, and I i represents the remaining time of the i-th industry. residual term.
进一步地,步骤4中,利用分解后得到的数据残差项,计算每个时间点的CUSUM统计量均值,公式如下:Further, in step 4, use the data residual term obtained after decomposition to calculate the mean CUSUM statistic at each time point. The formula is as follows:
其中,i指的是第i个产业,s指的是检测区间的起点,e指的是检测区间的终点,b指的是检测的时间点,n指的是检测的区间总长度,Ii,t指的是第i个产业t时刻平滑处理后的数据残差项,指的是第i个产业在检测区间[s,e]内的b时间点的CUSUM统计量值,p指的是数据维度的总数,/>指的是在检测区间[s,e]内的b时间点的CUSUM统计量均值,记为 Among them, i refers to the i-th industry, s refers to the starting point of the detection interval, e refers to the end point of the detection interval, b refers to the time point of detection, n refers to the total length of the detection interval, I i ,t refers to the smoothed data residual term of the i-th industry at time t, Refers to the CUSUM statistic value of the i-th industry at time point b within the detection interval [s, e], p refers to the total number of data dimensions,/> Refers to the mean CUSUM statistic at time point b within the detection interval [s, e], recorded as
进一步地,步骤4中,利用分解后得到的数据残差项,计算每个时间点的CUSUM统计量最大值,公式如下:Further, in step 4, use the data residual term obtained after decomposition to calculate the maximum value of the CUSUM statistic at each time point. The formula is as follows:
其中,i指的是第i个产业,s指的是检测区间的起点,e指的是检测区间的终点,b指的是检测的时间点,n指的是检测的区间总长度,Ii,t指的是第i个产业t时刻平滑处理后的数据残差项,指的是第i个产业在检测区间[s,e]内的b时间点的CUSUM统计量值,p指的是数据维度的总数,/>指的是在检测区间[s,e]内的b时间点的CUSUM统计量最大值。Among them, i refers to the i-th industry, s refers to the starting point of the detection interval, e refers to the end point of the detection interval, b refers to the time point of detection, n refers to the total length of the detection interval, I i ,t refers to the smoothed data residual term of the i-th industry at time t, Refers to the CUSUM statistic value of the i-th industry at time point b within the detection interval [s, e], p refers to the total number of data dimensions,/> It refers to the maximum value of the CUSUM statistic at time point b within the detection interval [s, e].
进一步地,步骤5中,基于计算所得到的M检验统计量和T检验统计量,利用Isolate-Detect算法检测各个产业的用电量的共同变点:Further, in step 5, based on the calculated M test statistic and T test statistic, the Isolate-Detect algorithm is used to detect the common change points of the electricity consumption of each industry:
首先创建待检测的区间,对于一个长度为T的数据序列,首先设定一个正常数λT,然后创建两组有序的K=[T/λT]的左右扩展区间;第j个右扩展区间是Rj=[1,min{jλT,T}],第j个左扩展区间是Lj=[max{1,T-jλT+1},T];在有序集合SRL={R1,L1,R2,L2,...,RK,LK}中收集这些区间;然后识别R1中检验统计量值最大的点;First create the interval to be detected. For a data sequence of length T, first set a positive constant λ T , and then create two ordered left and right extension intervals of K = [T/λ T ]; the jth right extension The interval is R j =[1,min{jλ T ,T}], and the jth left extended interval is L j =[max{1,T-jλ T +1},T]; in the ordered set S RL = Collect these intervals in {R 1 , L 1 , R 2 , L 2 ,..., R K , L K }; then identify the point in R 1 with the largest test statistic value;
基于所得到的检验统计量,设定阈值,其中阈值的计算公式如下:Based on the obtained test statistic, the threshold is set, where the threshold is calculated as follows:
式中,σ为输入数据的标准差,C为给定的参数值;比较阈值和检验统计量,判定该时间点是否为变点:如果检验统计量的值超过了阈值,则将对应点视为变点;如果没有超过阈值,则继续检测SRL的下一个区间。In the formula, σ is the standard deviation of the input data, and C is the given parameter value; compare the threshold and the test statistic to determine whether the time point is a change point: if the value of the test statistic exceeds the threshold, the corresponding point is regarded as is the change point; if it does not exceed the threshold, continue to detect the next interval of S RL .
进一步地,步骤7中,基于所检测出的变点位置,将标准化后的时序数据进行分段,对每段中的各个产业用电量求均值,提取每段时序数据的典型用电场景,其中第i个产业的用电量均值计算公式如下:Further, in step 7, based on the detected change point position, the standardized time series data is divided into segments, the average power consumption of each industry in each segment is calculated, and the typical power consumption scenario of each segment of the time series data is extracted. The calculation formula for the average electricity consumption of the i-th industry is as follows:
式中,τk指的是第k个变点的位置,指的是第i个产业在第k+1个变点位置标准化后的用电量值。In the formula, τ k refers to the position of the kth change point, It refers to the normalized electricity consumption value of the i-th industry at the k+1th change point position.
相比于现有技术,本发明及其优选方案的有益效果至少包括:Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention and its preferred solutions include at least:
1、考虑了工作日和周末的用电行为存在差异,提取出工作日中的某天数据和周末的某天数据进行后续数据分析,区分了工作日和周末的不同用电特点;1. Taking into account the difference in electricity consumption behavior between working days and weekends, extract the data of a certain day on the working day and the data of a certain day on the weekend for subsequent data analysis, distinguishing the different electricity consumption characteristics of working days and weekends;
2、对用电时序数据进行了趋势性分解,考虑到周期可能会使模型异常检测效果不稳定,使用不含趋势项和周期项的残差序列进行建模,提高了后续建模的精度;2. The electricity consumption time series data were trend decomposed. Considering that the period may make the model anomaly detection effect unstable, a residual sequence without trend items and period items was used for modeling, which improved the accuracy of subsequent modeling;
3、通过计算CUSUM均值统计量,考虑了所有维度对于变点检测的影响;3. By calculating the CUSUM mean statistic, the impact of all dimensions on change point detection is considered;
4、计算CUSUM最大值统计量,只使用了CUSUM统计量值最大的序列,不易被异常值影响;4. To calculate the maximum CUSUM statistic, only the sequence with the largest CUSUM statistic is used, which is not easily affected by outliers;
5、相比于传统的变点检测方法,ID方法在隔离的区间内每次只检测单个变点,计算效率更高;5. Compared with the traditional change point detection method, the ID method only detects a single change point at a time in an isolated interval, and the calculation efficiency is higher;
6、考虑M检验统计量较容易受异常值影响,以及T检验统计量不稳健,选择两个检验统计量检测出来的共同变点提高了变点检测的精度。6. Considering that the M test statistic is more susceptible to outliers and the T test statistic is not robust, choosing a common change point detected by two test statistics improves the accuracy of change point detection.
9、采用基于最终变点位置将标准化后的时间序列数据进行分段,对每段时序数据中各产业用电数据分别求均值,能够准确高效提取出每段的典型用电行为。9. The standardized time series data is segmented based on the final change point position, and the electricity consumption data of each industry in each segment of time series data is averaged, so that the typical electricity consumption behavior of each segment can be accurately and efficiently extracted.
附图说明Description of the drawings
下面结合附图和具体实施方式对本发明进一步详细说明:The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments:
图1为本发明实施例基于多维Isolate-Detect多变点检测的企业用电典型模式分析方法的流程图;Figure 1 is a flow chart of a typical pattern analysis method for enterprise power consumption based on multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect multi-change point detection according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图2为本发明实施例填充缺失值后的原始数据图;Figure 2 is an original data diagram after filling missing values according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图3为本发明实施例周一用电数据的时间序列图;Figure 3 is a time series diagram of electricity consumption data on Monday according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图4为本发明实施例周六用电数据的时间序列图;Figure 4 is a time series diagram of Saturday electricity consumption data according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图5为本发明实施例经过数据清洗后的各产业周一用电数据时序图;Figure 5 is a time sequence diagram of electricity consumption data of various industries on Monday after data cleaning according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图6为本发明实施例经过数据清洗后的各产业周六用电数据时序图;Figure 6 is a time sequence diagram of Saturday electricity consumption data of various industries after data cleaning according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图7为本发明实施例使用Savitzky-Golay滤波器的各产业周一用电数据平滑图;Figure 7 is a smoothing diagram of Monday electricity consumption data of various industries using the Savitzky-Golay filter according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图8为本发明实施例使用Savitzky-Golay滤波器的各产业周一用电数据平滑图;Figure 8 is a smoothing diagram of Monday electricity consumption data of various industries using the Savitzky-Golay filter according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图9为本发明实施例使用加法模型后的各产业周一用电数据残差序列图;Figure 9 is a residual sequence diagram of electricity consumption data for each industry on Monday after using the additive model according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图10为本发明实施例使用加法模型后的各产业周六用电数据残差序列图;Figure 10 is a residual sequence diagram of Saturday electricity consumption data of various industries after using the additive model according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图11为本发明实施例周一用电数据的M检验统计量和T检验统计量时序图;Figure 11 is a time series diagram of the M test statistic and the T test statistic of Monday's electricity consumption data according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图12为本发明实施例周六用电数据的M检验统计量和T检验统计量时序图;Figure 12 is a time series diagram of the M test statistic and the T test statistic of the Saturday electricity consumption data according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图13为本发明实施例使用多维Isolate-Detect算法检测得到的周一用电最终变点分布图;Figure 13 is the final change point distribution diagram of Monday's electricity consumption detected using the multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect algorithm according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图14为本发明实施例使用多维Isolate-Detect算法检测得到的周六用电最终变点分布图;Figure 14 is the final change point distribution diagram of Saturday's electricity consumption detected using the multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect algorithm according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图15为本发明实施例周一用电数据的分段均值曲线图;Figure 15 is a segmented mean curve chart of Monday's electricity consumption data according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图16为本发明实施例周六用电数据的分段均值曲线图。Figure 16 is a segmented mean curve chart of Saturday electricity consumption data according to the embodiment of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
为让本专利的特征和优点能更明显易懂,下文特举实施例,并配合附图,作详细说明如下:In order to make the features and advantages of this patent more obvious and easy to understand, the following examples are given in detail along with the accompanying drawings:
本实施例使用来自福建省福州市工业各产业用电量数据集对本申请实施例中的技术方案进行清楚、完整地描述。如图1所示为本发明的详细流程,以下提供实现该方案的具体应用实例:This embodiment uses electricity consumption data sets from various industries in Fuzhou City, Fujian Province to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application. Figure 1 shows the detailed process of the present invention. Specific application examples for implementing this solution are provided below:
步骤1:收集工业中各个产业的用电时序数据,其中数据包括公历日期、产业类型、用电量。Step 1: Collect electricity consumption time series data for various industries in the industry. The data includes Gregorian calendar date, industry type, and electricity consumption.
步骤2:对用电时序数据填充缺失值。将用电量为空以及为0的数据标记为缺失值。其中2020年7月6日,电子机械和木材加工用电量的数据缺失,将2020年6至9月每周一的电子机械和木材加工的用电量数据分别求均值,并用其分别插补缺失值。得到用电量时序图,如图2所示。从用电量时序数据中分别提取出周一的数据和周六的数据,如图3、图4所示。然后利用3σ原则剔除异常值,即在每一维数据中,将与平均值的偏差超过3倍标准差的数据点认定为异常数据,并将检测出的异常数据剔除。由于各个产业之间的用电量差异较大,为了避免各产业用电量时序数据的数量级差异太大对变点检测的影响,对各个产业的用电量分别进行标准化,公式如下:Step 2: Fill in missing values for the power consumption time series data. Mark the data with empty and 0 power consumption as missing values. Among them, the data on electricity consumption of electronic machinery and wood processing is missing on July 6, 2020. The electricity consumption data of electronic machinery and wood processing on every Monday from June to September 2020 are averaged and used to interpolate the missing data respectively. value. The power consumption timing diagram is obtained, as shown in Figure 2. Monday’s data and Saturday’s data were extracted from the electricity consumption time series data, as shown in Figure 3 and Figure 4. Then the 3σ principle is used to eliminate outliers, that is, in each dimension of data, data points that deviate from the average value by more than 3 times the standard deviation are identified as abnormal data, and the detected abnormal data are eliminated. Due to the large differences in electricity consumption between various industries, in order to avoid the impact of the large order of magnitude difference in the electricity consumption time series data of each industry on change point detection, the electricity consumption of each industry is standardized separately. The formula is as follows:
其中,xi,t表示第i个产业第t个时间点的用电量,μi表示第i个产业的用电量均值,σi表示第i个产业的用电量标准差,Xi,t代表标准化后的用电量,经过数据清洗后的各产业周一用电时序图以及周六用电时序图如图5、图6所示;Among them, x i,t represents the electricity consumption of the i-th industry at the t-th time point, μ i represents the average electricity consumption of the i-th industry, σ i represents the standard deviation of electricity consumption of the i-th industry, X i , t represents the standardized electricity consumption. After data cleaning, the Monday electricity consumption time series diagram and Saturday power consumption time series diagram of each industry are shown in Figure 5 and Figure 6;
步骤3:先使用Savitzky-Golay滤波器对清洗后的数据进行平滑,Savitzky-Golay滤波器是一种在时域内基于局域多项式最小二乘法拟合的滤波方法。假设原始时间序列数据为Xi={Xi,1,Xi,2,...Xi,t...,Xi,T},以Xi,t为原点,取Xi,t左右各m个样本点,构造一个包含2m+1个样本点的窗口数组,再构造一个p阶多项式来拟合窗口内的数据,p阶多项式如下:Step 3: First use the Savitzky-Golay filter to smooth the cleaned data. The Savitzky-Golay filter is a filtering method based on local polynomial least squares fitting in the time domain. Assume that the original time series data is Xi ={X i,1 , X i,2 ,...X i,t ...,X i,T }, with With m sample points on the left and right, construct a window array containing 2m+1 sample points, and then construct a p-order polynomial to fit the data in the window. The p-order polynomial is as follows:
其中-m≤n≤m,p≤2m+1;定义损失函数如下:Among them -m≤n≤m, p≤2m+1; define the loss function as follows:
当损失函数取得最小值时,原始数据的拟合效果达到最优。通过滑动窗口得到原始数据平滑后的拟合值,可以有效降低数据的噪音,周一用电数据平滑后的趋势如图7所示,周六用电数据平滑后的趋势如图8所示;When the loss function reaches the minimum value, the fitting effect of the original data is optimal. Obtaining the smoothed fitting value of the original data through the sliding window can effectively reduce the noise of the data. The trend of the smoothed electricity consumption data on Monday is shown in Figure 7, and the trend of the smoothed electricity consumption data on Saturday is shown in Figure 8;
接着对平滑后的数据使用加法模型进行趋势性分解,该模型表示如下:Then the additive model is used to decompose the trend of the smoothed data. The model is expressed as follows:
其中,Ti代表第i个产业的长期时间趋势,Si代表第i个产业的季节性时间趋势,Ci代表第i个产业的周期性时间趋势,Ii代表第i个产业的剩余的残差项。本发明将平滑后的用电量数据分解为趋势部分、周期部分和残差项部分,分别得到周一用电数据的残差序列、周六用电数据的残差序列,如图9、图10所示。Among them, T i represents the long-term time trend of the i-th industry, S i represents the seasonal time trend of the i-th industry, C i represents the cyclic time trend of the i-th industry, and I i represents the remaining time of the i-th industry. residual term. This invention decomposes the smoothed electricity consumption data into the trend part, the period part and the residual part, and obtains the residual sequence of Monday's electricity consumption data and the residual sequence of Saturday's electricity consumption data respectively, as shown in Figure 9 and Figure 10 shown.
步骤4:计算每个时间点的各个产业用电量残差项的CUSUM统计量,主要公式如下:Step 4: Calculate the CUSUM statistics of the residual term of electricity consumption in each industry at each time point. The main formula is as follows:
式中,i指的是第i个产业,s指的是检测区间的起点,e指的是检测区间的终点,b指的是检测的时间点,n指的是检测的区间总长度,Ii,t指的是第i个产业t时刻平滑后数据的残差项,指的是第i个产业在检测区间[s,e]内的b时间点的CUSUM统计量值。In the formula, i refers to the i-th industry, s refers to the starting point of the detection interval, e refers to the end point of the detection interval, b refers to the time point of detection, n refers to the total length of the detection interval, I i,t refers to the residual term of the smoothed data of the i-th industry at time t, It refers to the CUSUM statistic value of the i-th industry at time point b within the detection interval [s, e].
然后再计算每个时间点的各个产业残差项的CUSUM统计量均值和最大值,即M检验统计量和T检验统计量,公式如下:Then calculate the mean and maximum CUSUM statistics of each industry residual term at each time point, that is, the M test statistic and the T test statistic. The formula is as follows:
式中,p指的是数据维度的总数,在该实施例中p=9,指的是在检测区间[s,e]内的b时间点的CUSUM统计量均值。/>指的是在检测区间[s,e]内的b时间点的CUSUM统计量最大值。所得到的周一用电数据的M检验统计量和T检验统计量时序图如图11所示,周六用电数据的M检验统计量和T检验统计量时序图如图12所示。In the formula, p refers to the total number of data dimensions, in this embodiment p=9, Refers to the mean CUSUM statistic at time point b within the detection interval [s, e]. /> It refers to the maximum value of the CUSUM statistic at time point b within the detection interval [s, e]. The obtained M test statistic and T test statistic time series diagram of Monday's electricity consumption data are shown in Figure 11, and the M test statistic and T test statistic time series diagram of Saturday's electricity consumption data are shown in Figure 12.
步骤5:基于M检验统计量和T检验统计量,采用ID方法检测变点,输出多维用电数据的共同变点位置。ID方法主要通过阈值方法筛选变点,其原理如下:Step 5: Based on the M test statistic and T test statistic, use the ID method to detect the change point, and output the common change point position of the multi-dimensional electricity consumption data. The ID method mainly screens change points through the threshold method. Its principle is as follows:
首先创建待检测的区间,对于一个长度为T的数据序列,首先设定一个正常数λT,然后创建两组有序的K=[T/λT]的左右扩展区间。第j个右扩展区间是Rj=[1,min{jλT,T}],第j个左扩展区间是Lj=[max{1,T-jλT+1},T]。在有序集合SRL={R1,L1,R2,L2,...,RK,LK}中收集这些区间。然后ID识别R1中检验统计量值最大的点。基于所得到的检验统计量,设定阈值,其中阈值的计算公式如下:First create the interval to be detected. For a data sequence of length T, first set a positive constant λ T , and then create two ordered left and right extended intervals of K = [T/λ T ]. The jth right expansion interval is R j =[1,min{jλ T ,T}], and the jth left expansion interval is L j =[max{1,T-jλ T +1},T]. These intervals are collected in an ordered set S RL = {R 1 , L 1 , R 2 , L 2 ,..., R K , L K }. ID then identifies the point in R1 where the test statistic has the largest value. Based on the obtained test statistic, the threshold is set, where the threshold is calculated as follows:
式中,ζT为所得到的阈值,σ为输入数据的标准差,C为给定的参数值,T为输入的数据序列长度,在该实施例中,选择TSaturday=111。In the formula, ζ T is the obtained threshold, σ is the standard deviation of the input data, C is the given parameter value, and T is the length of the input data sequence. In this embodiment, select Saturday =111.
如果检验统计量的值超过了阈值,则将该点视为变点。如果没有超过阈值,则继续检测SRL的下一个区间。检测后,ID算法从检测发生的右(或左)扩展区间的终点(起点)开始新一轮的检测。If the value of the test statistic exceeds the threshold, the point is considered a change point. If the threshold is not exceeded, continue to detect the next interval of S RL . After detection, the ID algorithm starts a new round of detection from the end point (starting point) of the right (or left) extension interval where the detection occurred.
步骤6:利用两个检验统计量得到了周一用电数据的两个变点集合CP_MM、CP_MT,将集合CP_MM中和集合CP_MT中差值绝对值小于3的两个元素取出,选择较小的值放入集合CP_M,得到最终变点集合。周一用电数据的最终变点检测结果图如图13所示,共检测出11个变点。对周六用电数据采取相同的检测方法,得到周六用电数据的最终变点集合CP_S,共检测出10个变点,最终变点检测结果图如图14所示。Step 6: Use two test statistics to obtain two change point sets CP_MM and CP_MT of Monday's electricity consumption data. Take out the two elements whose absolute difference is less than 3 in the set CP_MM and the set CP_MT, and select the smaller value. Put it into the set CP_M to get the final change point set. The final change point detection result chart of Monday's electricity consumption data is shown in Figure 13. A total of 11 change points were detected. The same detection method was adopted for Saturday's electricity consumption data, and the final change point set CP_S of Saturday's electricity consumption data was obtained. A total of 10 change points were detected. The final change point detection result is shown in Figure 14.
步骤7:基于所检测出的变点位置,将标准化后的时序数据进行分段,对每段中的各个产业用电量求均值,提取每段时序数据的典型用电场景。其中第i个产业的用电量均值计算公式如下:Step 7: Based on the detected change point position, segment the standardized time series data into segments, average the electricity consumption of each industry in each segment, and extract the typical power consumption scenario of each segment of the time series data. The calculation formula for the average electricity consumption of the i-th industry is as follows:
式中,τk指的是第k个变点的位置,指的是第i个产业在第k+1个变点位置标准化后的用电量值。周一用电数据的分段均值曲线如图15所示,周六用电数据的分段均值曲线如图16所示,同时将时序子场景中各产业的均值标注在图中。In the formula, τ k refers to the position of the kth change point, It refers to the normalized electricity consumption value of the i-th industry at the k+1th change point position. The segmented mean curve of Monday's electricity consumption data is shown in Figure 15, and the segmented mean curve of Saturday's electricity consumption data is shown in Figure 16. At the same time, the average value of each industry in the time series sub-scenario is marked in the figure.
本领域内的技术人员应明白,本申请的实施例可提供为方法、系统、或计算机程序产品。因此,本申请可采用完全硬件实施例、完全软件实施例、或结合软件和硬件方面的实施例的形式。而且,本申请可采用在一个或多个其中包含有计算机可用程序代码的计算机可用存储介质(包括但不限于磁盘存储器、CD-ROM、光学存储器等)上实施的计算机程序产品的形式。Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment, or an embodiment that combines software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
本申请是参照根据本申请实施例的方法、设备(系统)、和计算机程序产品的流程图和/或方框图来描述的。应理解可由计算机程序指令实现流程图和/或方框图中的每一流程和/或方框、以及流程图和/或方框图中的流程和/或方框的结合。可提供这些计算机程序指令到通用计算机、专用计算机、嵌入式处理机或其他可编程数据处理设备的处理器以产生一个机器,使得通过计算机或其他可编程数据处理设备的处理器执行的指令产生用于实现在流程图一个流程或多个流程和/或方框图一个方框或多个方框中指定的功能的装置。The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each process and/or block in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of processes and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, such that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device produce a use A device for realizing the functions specified in one process or multiple processes of the flowchart and/or one block or multiple blocks of the block diagram.
这些计算机程序指令也可存储在能引导计算机或其他可编程数据处理设备以特定方式工作的计算机可读存储器中,使得存储在该计算机可读存储器中的指令产生包括指令装置的制造品,该指令装置实现在流程图一个流程或多个流程和/或方框图一个方框或多个方框中指定的功能。These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that causes a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to operate in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including the instruction means, the instructions The device implements the functions specified in a process or processes of the flowchart and/or a block or blocks of the block diagram.
这些计算机程序指令也可装载到计算机或其他可编程数据处理设备上,使得在计算机或其他可编程设备上执行一系列操作步骤以产生计算机实现的处理,从而在计算机或其他可编程设备上执行的指令提供用于实现在流程图一个流程或多个流程和/或方框图一个方框或多个方框中指定的功能的步骤。These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device, causing a series of operating steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable device to produce computer-implemented processing, thereby executing on the computer or other programmable device. Instructions provide steps for implementing the functions specified in a process or processes of a flowchart diagram and/or a block or blocks of a block diagram.
以上所述,仅是本发明的较佳实施例而已,并非是对本发明作其它形式的限制,任何熟悉本专业的技术人员可能利用上述揭示的技术内容加以变更或改型为等同变化的等效实施例。但是凡是未脱离本发明技术方案内容,依据本发明的技术实质对以上实施例所作的任何简单修改、等同变化与改型,仍属于本发明技术方案的保护范围。The above are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention in other forms. Any skilled person familiar with the art may make changes or modifications to equivalent changes using the technical contents disclosed above. Example. However, any simple modifications, equivalent changes and modifications made to the above embodiments based on the technical essence of the present invention without departing from the content of the technical solution of the present invention still fall within the protection scope of the technical solution of the present invention.
本专利不局限于上述最佳实施方式,任何人在本专利的启示下都可以得出其它各种形式的基于多维Isolate-Detect多变点检测的企业用电典型模式分析方法,凡依本发明申请专利范围所做的均等变化与修饰,皆应属本专利的涵盖范围。This patent is not limited to the above-mentioned best embodiments. Under the inspiration of this patent, anyone can derive various other forms of analysis methods for typical patterns of enterprise electricity consumption based on multi-dimensional Isolate-Detect multi-change point detection. Anyone based on the present invention Equal changes and modifications made to the scope of the patent application shall be within the scope of this patent.
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