CN116956518B - Wind-induced response influence and safety evaluation method and system for power transmission tower line system - Google Patents
Wind-induced response influence and safety evaluation method and system for power transmission tower line system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the field of disaster assessment of disaster prevention and reduction projects, and provides a method and a system for evaluating wind-induced response influence and safety of a power transmission tower line system. Combining the parameters of the ground wire and establishing a temperature prediction model of the ground wire based on a thermodynamic principle and a related calculation formula; collecting operation data of a power transmission tower line system and meteorological data of a region where the power transmission tower line system is located, and inputting the collected data into a prediction model to form a ground wire temperature database; respectively establishing two models of a ground wire and a power transmission tower wire system, and determining the influence rules of temperature change on the dynamic characteristics, response, ultimate bearing capacity and the like of the ground wire and the power transmission tower wire system; according to the distribution characteristics of wind speed and predicted temperature, respectively establishing edge distribution of the wind speed and the predicted temperature, establishing a combined distribution model considering the correlation of the wind speed and the predicted temperature on the basis, and analyzing the safety of a power transmission tower line system under the action of wind load considering the temperature influence according to the combined distribution probability of the wind speed and the predicted temperature.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of disaster assessment of disaster prevention and reduction projects, in particular to a method and a system for evaluating wind-induced response influence and safety of a power transmission tower line system.
Background
The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present disclosure and may not necessarily constitute prior art.
The distribution range of the power transmission line is very wide, the power transmission line is required to pass through a complex meteorological environment area, various disasters are very easy to cause the power transmission line to fail, and the safe and stable operation of a power system is seriously affected. The span of the transmission tower line system is large, and the conductive wire is expanded with heat and contracted with cold along with the change of temperature, so that the conductive wire is continuously tensioned or loosened. When the lead is tensioned, the stress of the lead wire is increased, when wind load acts on the tensioned lead wire, larger stress and structural response are caused, and the failure risk of the power transmission tower wire system under the wind load is increased; when the ground wire is loosened, the safety distance between the ground wire and a ground object is reduced, and potential safety hazards exist.
At present, students evaluate the performance of a power transmission tower line system under wind load at home and abroad, but the temperature state of a ground wire is rarely considered in the researches, and the temperature of the ground wire can obviously influence sag, so that the influence of the temperature is ignored, and the performance evaluation of a structure under the wind load is inaccurate. In addition, the correlation between temperature and wind speed is not considered in the existing studies.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems in the background art, the invention provides a wind-induced response influence and safety evaluation method and system for a power transmission tower line system.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the first aspect of the invention provides a wind induced response influence and safety assessment method for a power transmission tower line system.
A wind-induced response influence and safety evaluation method of a power transmission tower line system comprises the following steps:
determining a power transmission tower line system to be evaluated, and acquiring ground wire parameters, power transmission tower line system operation data and environmental meteorological data;
Establishing a ground wire temperature prediction model according to the ground wire parameters;
based on the operation data of the power transmission tower line system and the environmental meteorological data, a ground wire temperature prediction model is adopted to obtain the ground wire temperature, so that a database is constructed;
Based on a database, analyzing a ground wire-insulator model and a finite element model of a power transmission tower wire system, determining an influence rule of the temperature change of the ground wire on the safety of the power transmission tower wire system under wind load, calculating failure probability of the power transmission tower wire system under different ground wire temperatures and wind speed working conditions, and establishing a vulnerability curve of the power transmission tower wire system under different temperatures; calculating the damage state overrun probability of the power transmission tower line system according to the vulnerability curves of the power transmission tower line system at different temperatures;
And calculating the damage state overrun probability considering the wind speed and the predicted temperature joint distribution probability based on the damage state overrun probability of the power transmission tower line system, and analyzing the safety of the wind-induced power transmission tower line system when the damage state overrun probability of the joint distribution probability reaches a set threshold value.
Further, the temperature prediction model of the ground wire is determined according to a static heat balance equation of the ground wire, and the static heat balance equation of the ground wire is as follows:
qc+qr＝qs+I2R(Tavg)
Where q c is the rate of convective heat loss per unit length, q r is the rate of radiant heat loss per unit length, q s is the solar heat gain, I is the conductor current, and R (T avg) is the conductor ac resistance at that temperature.
Further, the process of analyzing the earth wire-insulator model and the finite element model of the transmission tower wire system comprises the following steps: determining the sag and stress change rule of the ground lead caused by the temperature change of the ground lead, calculating the modal information of the ground lead-insulator model and the modal information of the finite element model of the power transmission tower line system under different temperatures of the ground lead, comparing and analyzing to obtain the response, ultimate bearing capacity and damage characteristics of the ground lead and the power transmission tower line system under the action of wind load under different temperatures of the ground lead, and determining the influence rule of the temperature change on the safety of the power transmission tower line system under the wind load.
Further, the vulnerability curves of the power transmission tower line systems at different temperatures are as follows:
FR(IMo)＝P(EDP≥DSi|IM＝IMo)
Wherein F R(IMo) is the probability that the structural performance state reaches or exceeds a certain critical value, EDP is a structural demand parameter, DS i is the ith damage state of the structure, and IM is a wind load intensity index.
Further, the process for analyzing the safety of the wind power transmission tower line system comprises the following steps: according to the distribution characteristics of wind speed and ground wire temperature in a database, a wind speed edge distribution probability model and a temperature edge distribution probability model are respectively established, a combined distribution model of the wind speed edge distribution probability model and a combined distribution model of the temperature edge distribution probability model are established, and the combined distribution probability of the wind speed and the ground wire temperature is calculated; and multiplying the joint distribution probability of the wind speed and the temperature of the ground wire by the damage state overrun probability of the vulnerability curve of the corresponding power transmission tower wire system to form a power transmission tower wire system damage probability curved surface under the common influence of the wind speed and the temperature.
Still further, the process of constructing the joint distribution model of the wind speed edge distribution probability model and the joint distribution model of the temperature edge distribution probability model includes: and respectively constructing a joint distribution model of the wind speed edge distribution probability model and a joint distribution model of the temperature edge distribution probability model by adopting a Copula function.
Further, the model considering the probability of the wind speed and the predicted temperature joint distribution is: a Copula function is adopted to establish a joint distribution model between wind speed and ground wire temperature, and the adopted function is as follows:
f(x,y)＝c(u,v)·f(x)·g(y)
in the method, in the process of the invention, Density function, which is a two-dimensional Copula function,/>And/> Probability density functions for wind speed and ground wire temperature, respectively.
A second aspect of the invention provides a transmission tower line system wind induced response impact and safety assessment system.
A transmission tower line system wind induced response impact and security assessment system comprising:
A data acquisition module configured to: determining a power transmission tower line system to be evaluated, and acquiring ground wire parameters, power transmission tower line system operation data and environmental meteorological data;
a model building module configured to: establishing a ground wire temperature prediction model according to the ground wire parameters;
a database construction module configured to: based on the operation data of the power transmission tower line system and the environmental meteorological data, a ground wire temperature prediction model is adopted to obtain the ground wire temperature, so that a database is constructed;
A wind-induced response impact analysis module configured to: based on a database, analyzing a ground wire-insulator model and a finite element model of a power transmission tower wire system, determining an influence rule of the temperature change of the ground wire on the safety of the power transmission tower wire system under wind load, calculating failure probability of the power transmission tower wire system under different ground wire temperatures and wind speed working conditions, and establishing a vulnerability curve of the power transmission tower wire system under different temperatures; calculating the damage state overrun probability of the power transmission tower line system according to the vulnerability curves of the power transmission tower line system at different temperatures;
A security analysis module configured to: and calculating the damage state overrun probability considering the wind speed and the predicted temperature joint distribution probability based on the damage state overrun probability of the power transmission tower line system, and analyzing the safety of the wind-induced power transmission tower line system when the damage state overrun probability of the joint distribution probability reaches a set threshold value.
A third aspect of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium.
A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which when executed by a processor performs the steps in a transmission tower system wind induced response impact and security assessment method as described in the first aspect above.
A fourth aspect of the invention provides a computer device.
A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the steps in the wind-induced response impact and security assessment method of a power transmission tower line system as described in the first aspect above when the program is executed.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
(1) Compared with the traditional method that the temperature of the ground wire is replaced by the ambient temperature, the temperature prediction model of the ground wire can enable the predicted temperature to be close to the actual running temperature of the ground wire.
(2) According to the invention, by establishing a combined distribution model of wind speed and predicted temperature, the correlation of the wind speed and the predicted temperature is considered, and the combined distribution probability of the wind speed and the ground wire temperature is defined.
(3) The method can quickly establish the damage probability curved surface of the power transmission tower line system according to the running state of the power transmission tower line system and the local meteorological data, can fully evaluate the damage probability of the power transmission tower line system under the combined action of temperature and wind load, and provides and rationalizes suggestions for actual engineering.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the invention.
FIG. 1 is a basic flow chart of a wind induced response impact and safety assessment method for a power transmission tower line system provided by the invention;
FIG. 2 (a) is a graph showing the measured daily average air temperature distribution over 50 years in the southern region of the city;
FIG. 2 (b) is a graph showing a measured daily maximum wind speed profile over 50 years in a southern region of the city;
FIG. 3 is a predicted value of wire temperature for a power transmission line in the selected region;
fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of a structure of a power transmission tower according to an embodiment of the present invention and a part of the structure;
FIG. 5 (a) is a schematic diagram of a wire-insulator model according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 (b) is a schematic diagram of a transmission tower line system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 6 shows the natural frequency of the wire at different temperatures;
FIG. 7 (a) is a graph showing the variation of the support reaction force with temperature and air velocity;
FIG. 7 (b) is a graph showing the variation of peak displacement of the column top with temperature and wind speed;
FIG. 7 (c) is a graph showing the variation of the peak acceleration of the tower top with temperature and wind speed;
FIG. 8 is a graph showing vulnerability of the transmission tower line system under the working conditions of-2 ℃, 18 ℃ and 28 ℃;
FIG. 9 (a) is a graph of the edge profile of the maximum wind speed per day;
FIG. 9 (b) is an edge profile of the daily wire temperature;
FIG. 10 (a) is a cumulative distribution diagram of the daily maximum wind speed and wire temperature;
FIG. 10 (b) is a probability density distribution plot of maximum wind speed per day versus wire temperature;
Fig. 11 is an established power transmission tower line system failure risk assessment curved surface.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further described with reference to the drawings and examples.
It should be noted that the following detailed description is illustrative and is intended to provide further explanation of the invention. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs.
It is noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of exemplary embodiments according to the present invention. As used herein, the singular is also intended to include the plural unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, and furthermore, it is to be understood that the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising" when used in this specification are taken to specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, devices, components, and/or combinations thereof.
It is noted that the flowcharts and block diagrams in the figures illustrate the architecture, functionality, and operation of possible implementations of methods and systems according to various embodiments of the present disclosure. It should be noted that each block in the flowchart or block diagrams may represent a module, segment, or portion of code, which comprises one or more executable instructions for implementing the logical functions specified in the various embodiments. It should also be noted that, in some alternative implementations, the functions noted in the block may occur out of the order noted in the figures. For example, two blocks shown in succession may, in fact, be executed substantially concurrently, or the blocks may sometimes be executed in the reverse order, depending upon the functionality involved. It will also be noted that each block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by special purpose hardware-based systems which perform the specified functions or operations, or combinations of special purpose hardware and computer instructions.
Example 1
The embodiment provides a wind-induced response influence and safety evaluation method of a power transmission tower line system, which is applied to a server for illustration, and it can be understood that the method can also be applied to a terminal, can also be applied to a system and a terminal, and can be realized through interaction of the terminal and the server. The server can be an independent physical server, a server cluster or a distributed system formed by a plurality of physical servers, and can also be a cloud server for providing cloud services, cloud databases, cloud computing, cloud functions, cloud storage, network servers, cloud communication, middleware services, domain name services, security services CDNs, basic cloud computing services such as big data and artificial intelligent platforms and the like. The terminal may be, but is not limited to, a smart phone, a tablet computer, a notebook computer, a desktop computer, a smart speaker, a smart watch, etc. The terminal and the server may be directly or indirectly connected through wired or wireless communication, and the present application is not limited herein. In this embodiment, the method includes the steps of:
determining a power transmission tower line system to be evaluated, and acquiring ground wire parameters, power transmission tower line system operation data and environmental meteorological data;
Establishing a ground wire temperature prediction model according to the ground wire parameters;
based on the operation data of the power transmission tower line system and the environmental meteorological data, a ground wire temperature prediction model is adopted to obtain the ground wire temperature, so that a database is constructed;
Based on a database, analyzing a ground wire-insulator model and a finite element model of a power transmission tower wire system, determining an influence rule of the temperature change of the ground wire on the safety of the power transmission tower wire system under wind load, calculating failure probability of the power transmission tower wire system under different ground wire temperatures and wind speed working conditions, and establishing a vulnerability curve of the power transmission tower wire system under different temperatures; calculating the damage state overrun probability of the power transmission tower line system according to the vulnerability curves of the power transmission tower line system at different temperatures;
And calculating the damage state overrun probability considering the wind speed and the predicted temperature joint distribution probability based on the damage state overrun probability of the power transmission tower line system, and analyzing the safety of the wind-induced power transmission tower line system when the damage state overrun probability of the joint distribution probability reaches a set threshold value.
As shown in fig. 1, the technical solution of the present embodiment is implemented with reference to the following:
Step one: establishing a multivariable ground wire temperature prediction model
(1) Determining a power transmission tower line system to be evaluated, and collecting parameters such as the diameter, emissivity, absorptivity, resistance and the like of a ground wire;
(2) According to a thermodynamic formula and ground wire parameters, a multivariable ground wire temperature prediction model based on a physical model is established, and a static heat balance equation of the ground wire is as follows:
qc+qr＝qs+I2R(Tavg)
Where q c is the rate of convective heat loss per unit length, qr is the rate of radiant heat loss per unit length, q s is the solar heat gain, I is the conductor current, R (T avg) is the ac resistance of the conductor at that temperature, and it can be considered that the conductor resistance adjusts linearly with the conductor surface temperature.
The rate of convective heat loss per unit length q c can be calculated by the following formula:
Where K f is the thermal conductivity of air at boundary layer temperature, T s is the surface temperature of the conductive wire, T a is the ambient air temperature, N Re is the Reynolds number (related to the air flow velocity at the conductive wire), and K angle is the wind direction coefficient.
The radiant heat loss rate per unit length q r can be calculated by the following formula:
where ε is the emissivity (related to the wire surface state).
Solar heat gain q s can be calculated by the following formula:
qs＝αQsesin(θ)A′
where α is the solar absorptance, θ is the effective incident angle of solar rays, A' is the projected area of the wire, and Q se is the elevation-corrected total radiant heat intensity of the sun.
According to the static heat balance principle of the conductive wire, a conductive wire temperature prediction model can be established, and as can be known from the calculation formula, when the conductive wire parameters and the current transmission power are determined, the I 2R(Tavg) item of the static heat balance equation of the conductive wire can be regarded as a fixed value; when the weather conditions are determined, the q s term of the static heat balance equation of the lead is known, and the q c and q s terms of the static heat balance equation of the lead are only affected by the lead temperature T s. Therefore, by continuously adjusting the temperature T s of the ground wire and performing iterative calculation, the difference value between two sides of the equation of the static heat balance equation of the ground wire is smaller than the T s value of 0.001, namely the temperature predicted value of the ground wire to be solved.
Step two: constructing a temperature distribution database of the ground wire
(3) Collecting operation data of a power transmission tower line system and meteorological data such as temperature, wind speed, wind direction, sunlight and the like of a region where the operation data are located, and processing the data so that the data can be used by the established ground wire temperature prediction model;
(4) And inputting the collected operation data and the collected meteorological data into a ground wire temperature prediction model, outputting the ground wire temperature corresponding to the meteorological conditions, and forming a meteorological condition-ground wire temperature database.
Step three: study on influence of temperature change on response of system of ground wire and power transmission tower wire
(5) Respectively establishing a ground wire-insulator model and a finite element model of a transmission tower wire system according to the selected actual engineering;
(6) Determining sag and stress change rules of the earth conductors caused by temperature change, calculating modal information of the earth conductor-insulator model and the finite element model of the transmission tower line system under different earth conductor temperatures, and comparing and analyzing. Specifically, according to the thermal expansion coefficient of the conductive ground wire and the predicted temperature, calculating the elongation or shortening amount of the conductive ground wire, calculating the sag of the conductive ground wire according to the elongation or shortening amount, comparing the sag of the conductive ground wire at different temperatures, and summarizing the change rule of the sag of the conductive ground wire along with the temperature; the stress of the ground wire can be changed when the ground wire is lengthened or shortened under the influence of temperature, and the change rule of the stress of the ground wire along with the temperature is summarized; the sag and stress change of the ground lead calculated by the finite element model of the power transmission tower line system are compared with the calculated value of 110 kV-750 kV overhead power transmission line design specification, the rationality of the finite element model is determined, the vibration modes, the self-vibration frequency and the like of the power transmission tower line system at different temperatures are calculated according to the finite element model, and the influence rule of the temperature change on the mode of the power transmission tower line system is summarized;
(7) And (3) researching the response, ultimate bearing capacity and damage characteristics of the ground wire and the power transmission tower wire system under the action of wind load at different ground wire temperatures, and determining the influence rule of temperature change on the safety of the power transmission tower wire system under the wind load. Specifically, firstly, calculating the displacement and acceleration of the power transmission tower top at different temperatures according to the established finite element model, and summarizing the influence rule of temperature change on the tower top acceleration and displacement; secondly, continuously increasing the wind speed, and determining the damage level and the corresponding bearing capacity of the power transmission tower; and finally, defining the tower top displacement when the power transmission tower reaches different damage grades by combining the damage characteristics of the power transmission tower.
(8) According to different defined damage grades of the power transmission tower, calculating the probability of reaching different damage grades of the power transmission tower line system under different ground wire temperature and wind speed working conditions, and establishing a vulnerability curve of the power transmission tower line system under different temperatures, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
FR(IMo)＝P(EDP≥DSi|IM＝IMo)
Wherein F R(IMo) is the probability that the structural performance state reaches or exceeds a certain critical value, and EDP is a structural demand parameter; DS i is the ith damage state of the structure, and IM is a wind load intensity index.
It is generally believed that the different performance states of the structure under wind loading obey a lognormal distribution, and the vulnerability function F R(IMo) can be expressed as:
wherein, phi (·) is a standard normal distribution function; EDP is the mean value of the earthquake demand parameters; beta D and beta C are structural seismic demand and seismic resistance log standard deviations, respectively.
Step four: developing wind-induced power transmission tower line system safety analysis considering wind speed and temperature correlation
(9) And respectively establishing an edge distribution probability model of the wind speed and the temperature according to the distribution characteristics of the wind speed and the temperature of the ground wire. Since the distribution characteristics of wind speed and ground wire temperature are different, an edge distribution model of the wind speed and the ground wire temperature needs to be established respectively. The invention adopts Weibull distribution, frechet distribution, gumbel distribution, johnsonsb distribution, beta distribution, burr12 distribution and the like to fit the wind speed and the temperature distribution of the earth wire, and adopts the partial formulas as follows:
The probability density of the Weibull distribution can be expressed as:
Where x is a random variable, λ >0 is a scale parameter (SCALEPARAMETER), and k >0 is a shape parameter (SHAPEPARAMETER).
The probability density of the Frechet distribution can be expressed as:
Where b is a scale parameter and c is a shape parameter.
The probability density of the gummel distribution can be expressed as:
Where a is a position parameter and b is a scale parameter.
(10) The fitting degree of the edge distribution model of the wind speed and the running temperature of the lead and the real data adopts a mean square error (SSE) and AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) criterion as evaluation indexes of the edge distribution model, and the smaller the values of RMSE and AIC are, the better the fitting effect of the distribution model is shown.
AIC＝Nln(RMSE2)+2M
Where N is the number of samples, M is the number of parameters, and Pe m and P m are the empirical probability distribution and the theoretical probability distribution, respectively.
(11) According to the edge distribution model, a joint distribution probability model capable of accurately describing the correlation of wind speed and temperature is established, the wind speed and the temperature of the earth wire belong to different distribution types, and the joint distribution model between the wind speed and the temperature of the earth wire is established by adopting a Copula function, wherein the adopted function is as follows:
f(x,y)＝c(u,v)·f(x)·g(y)
in the method, in the process of the invention, Density function, which is a two-dimensional Copula function,/>And/> Probability density functions for wind speed and ground wire temperature, respectively.
(12) Evaluating the fitting degree of Copula functions by adopting RMSE and AIC, selecting the Copula function with the best fitting degree, establishing a combined distribution model of wind speed and ground wire temperature, and solving the combined distribution probability of the maximum wind speed and the ground wire temperature;
(13) And multiplying the joint distribution probability of each wind speed and the temperature of the ground wire by the damage state overrun probability of the vulnerability curve of the corresponding power transmission tower wire system to form a power transmission tower wire system damage probability curved surface under the common influence of the wind speed and the temperature.
Example two
The embodiment provides a wind-induced response influence and safety evaluation method for a transmission tower line system, and the embodiment selects an extra-high voltage transmission line in a certain province as a supporting project.
Step one: and establishing a ground wire temperature prediction model based on a physical principle. Firstly, determining a power transmission tower line system to be evaluated, and collecting parameters such as the diameter, the emissivity, the absorptivity, the resistance and the like of a ground wire; then, according to a thermodynamic formula and ground wire parameters, a ground wire temperature prediction model based on a physical model is established, and a static heat balance equation of the ground wire is as follows:
qc+qr＝qs+I2R(Tavg)
Where q c is the rate of convective heat loss per unit length, q r is the rate of radiant heat loss per unit length, q s is the solar heat gain, I is the conductor current, R (T avg) is the ac resistance of the conductor at that temperature, and it can be considered that the conductor resistance adjusts linearly with the conductor surface temperature.
According to a static heat balance equation of the ground wire, a ground wire temperature prediction model can be established, the running condition of a local power transmission line is investigated, and the transmission power of the power transmission line is determined.
Step two: and constructing a conductive wire temperature distribution database. According to the geographical position of the power transmission tower structure, collecting actual measurement meteorological record data of the area for several years from the China meteorological office (CMA, http:// data, CMA. Cn /), including maximum wind speed, wind direction, temperature and the like, and adopting python language programming to read and process the data so that the data can be used by the established ground wire temperature prediction model; subsequently, the collected operation data and the collected meteorological data are input into a ground wire temperature prediction model, the ground wire temperature corresponding to the meteorological conditions is output, a meteorological condition-ground wire temperature database is formed, and the predicted temperature of the wire is shown in fig. 3.
Step three: and (5) researching the influence of temperature change on the response of the system of the earth conductor and the transmission tower line. According to the selected actual engineering, respectively establishing a ground wire-insulator model and a power transmission tower wire system finite element model, wherein the structure diagram of the power transmission tower is shown in fig. 4, and the ground wire-insulator model and the power transmission tower wire system finite element model are shown in fig. 5 (a) and 5 (b); determining sag and stress change rules of the lead wire caused by temperature change, calculating modal information of the power transmission line-insulator model and the power transmission tower line system finite element model under different temperatures of the lead wire, and comparing and analyzing, wherein the lead wire self-vibration frequencies under different temperatures are shown in fig. 6; then, researching the response, ultimate bearing capacity and damage characteristics of the ground wire and the power transmission tower wire system under the wind load effect at different ground wire temperatures, and determining the influence rule of temperature change on the safety of the power transmission tower wire system under the wind load, wherein the response conditions of the ground wire and the power transmission tower wire system under different temperature working conditions are shown in fig. 7 (a), 7 (b) and 7 (c); then, the failure probability of the structure under different ground wire temperatures and wind speed working conditions is calculated, a power transmission tower wire system vulnerability curve under different temperatures is established, and a calculation formula is as follows:
FR(IMo)＝P(EDP≥DSi|IM＝IMo)
Wherein F R(IMo) is the probability that the structural performance state reaches or exceeds a certain critical value, and EDP is a structural demand parameter; DS i is the ith damage state of the structure, and IM is a wind load intensity index. As shown in figure 8, the vulnerability curves of the transmission tower line system at the temperature of-2 ℃, 18 ℃ and 28 ℃ are shown, and the failure risk of the ground lead at different temperatures is defined.
Step four: and carrying out safety analysis of the wind-driven power transmission tower line system in consideration of the wind speed and temperature correlation. And respectively establishing an edge distribution probability model of the wind speed and the temperature according to the distribution characteristics of the wind speed and the temperature of the ground wire. Since the distribution characteristics of wind speed and ground wire temperature are different, an edge distribution model of the wind speed and the ground wire temperature needs to be established respectively. The invention adopts Weibull distribution, frechet distribution, gumbel distribution, johnsonsb distribution, beta distribution, burr12 distribution and the like to fit the wind speed and the temperature distribution of the conductive wire, wherein the probability density of the wind speed and the corresponding fitting function are shown in the graph (a) of FIG. 9, and the probability density of the temperature of the conductive wire and the corresponding fitting function are shown in the graph (b) of FIG. 9. The fitting degree of the edge distribution model of the wind speed and the running temperature of the lead and the real data adopts a mean square error (SSE) and AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) criterion as evaluation indexes of the edge distribution model, and the smaller the values of RMSE and AIC are, the better the fitting effect of the distribution model is shown. Then, a joint distribution probability model capable of accurately describing the correlation of wind speed and temperature is established according to the edge distribution model, the wind speed and the temperature of the ground wire belong to different distribution types, and the joint distribution model between the wind speed and the temperature of the ground wire is established by adopting a Copula function, wherein the following functions are adopted:
f(x,y)＝c(u,v)·f(x)·g(y)
in the method, in the process of the invention, Density function, which is a two-dimensional Copula function,/>And/> Probability density functions for wind speed and ground wire temperature, respectively. Cumulative probability distribution and probability density maps of the established joint distribution model are shown in fig. 10 (a) and 10 (b), respectively; and combining the joint distribution probability of each wind speed and the temperature of the ground wire with the damage state overrun probability of the vulnerability curve of the corresponding power transmission tower wire system to form a power transmission tower wire system damage probability curved surface under the common influence of the wind speed and the temperature, as shown in fig. 11.
According to the method, the safety performance analysis under the wind load effect is performed on the selected power transmission line more accurately, the power transmission line expands with heat and contracts with cold along with the change of temperature due to the characteristic of long span of the power transmission line, the stress characteristic of the power transmission tower line system is changed, the safety evaluation precision of the power transmission tower line system is improved by considering the influence of temperature on the structure, meanwhile, the temperature of the power transmission line system is provided more accurately through a power transmission line temperature prediction model, and then the established power transmission tower line system failure probability curved surface can be combined with historical meteorological data of an area where the power transmission line is located, so that the safety performance of the power transmission tower line system under the wind load effect is comprehensively evaluated.
Example III
The embodiment provides a wind-induced response influence and safety evaluation system of a power transmission tower line system.
A transmission tower line system wind induced response impact and security assessment system comprising:
A data acquisition module configured to: determining a power transmission tower line system to be evaluated, and acquiring ground wire parameters, power transmission tower line system operation data and environmental meteorological data;
a model building module configured to: establishing a ground wire temperature prediction model according to the ground wire parameters;
a database construction module configured to: based on the operation data of the power transmission tower line system and the environmental meteorological data, a ground wire temperature prediction model is adopted to obtain the ground wire temperature, so that a database is constructed;
A wind-induced response impact analysis module configured to: based on a database, analyzing a ground wire-insulator model and a finite element model of a power transmission tower wire system, determining an influence rule of the temperature change of the ground wire on the safety of the power transmission tower wire system under wind load, calculating failure probability of the power transmission tower wire system under different ground wire temperatures and wind speed working conditions, and establishing a vulnerability curve of the power transmission tower wire system under different temperatures; calculating the damage state overrun probability of the power transmission tower line system according to the vulnerability curves of the power transmission tower line system at different temperatures;
A security analysis module configured to: and calculating the damage state overrun probability considering the wind speed and the predicted temperature joint distribution probability based on the damage state overrun probability of the power transmission tower line system, and analyzing the safety of the wind-induced power transmission tower line system when the damage state overrun probability of the joint distribution probability reaches a set threshold value.
It should be noted that the data acquisition module, the model building module, the wind response influence analysis module and the security analysis module are the same as the examples and application scenarios implemented by the steps in the first embodiment, but are not limited to the disclosure of the first embodiment. It should be noted that the modules described above may be implemented as part of a system in a computer system, such as a set of computer-executable instructions.
Example IV
The present embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps in the transmission tower line system wind induced response impact and security assessment method as described in the above embodiment.
Example five
The present embodiment provides a computer device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and capable of running on the processor, where the processor implements the steps in the wind-induced response impact and safety assessment method of the power transmission tower line system according to the above embodiment when executing the program.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of a hardware embodiment, a software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, magnetic disk storage, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that implementing all or part of the above-described methods in accordance with the embodiments may be accomplished by way of a computer program stored on a computer readable storage medium, which when executed may comprise the steps of the embodiments of the methods described above. The storage medium may be a magnetic disk, an optical disc, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random access Memory (Random AccessMemory, RAM), or the like.
The above description is only of the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention, but various modifications and variations can be made to the present invention by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. The utility model provides a transmission tower line system wind induced response influence and safety evaluation method which is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining a power transmission tower line system to be evaluated, and acquiring ground wire parameters, power transmission tower line system operation data and environmental meteorological data;
Establishing a ground wire temperature prediction model according to the ground wire parameters;
The temperature prediction model of the conductive wire is determined according to a static heat balance equation of the conductive wire, and the static heat balance equation of the conductive wire is as follows:
qc+qr＝qs+I2R(Tavg)
Wherein q c is the rate of convection heat loss per unit length, q r is the rate of radiant heat loss per unit length, q s is the solar heat gain, I is the conductor current, and R (T avg) is the alternating current resistance of the conductor at that temperature;
When the parameters of the lead and the current delivery power are determined, the I 2R(Tavg item of the static heat balance equation of the lead can be regarded as a constant value, and the q c and q s items of the static heat balance equation of the lead are only influenced by the temperature T s of the lead;
based on the operation data of the power transmission tower line system and the environmental meteorological data, a ground wire temperature prediction model is adopted to obtain the ground wire temperature, so that a database is constructed;
Based on a database, analyzing a ground wire-insulator model and a finite element model of a power transmission tower wire system, determining an influence rule of the temperature change of the ground wire on the safety of the power transmission tower wire system under wind load, calculating failure probability of the power transmission tower wire system under different ground wire temperatures and wind speed working conditions, and establishing a vulnerability curve of the power transmission tower wire system under different temperatures; calculating the damage state overrun probability of the power transmission tower line system according to the vulnerability curves of the power transmission tower line system at different temperatures;
The process for analyzing the earth wire-insulator model and the finite element model of the transmission tower wire system comprises the following steps: determining the sag and stress change rule of the ground lead caused by the temperature change of the ground lead, calculating the modal information of the ground lead-insulator model and the modal information of the finite element model of the power transmission tower line system under different ground lead temperatures, comparing and analyzing to obtain the response, ultimate bearing capacity and damage characteristics of the ground lead and the power transmission tower line system under the wind load effect under different ground lead temperatures, and determining the influence rule of the temperature change on the safety of the power transmission tower line system under the wind load;
calculating damage state override probability considering wind speed and predicted temperature joint distribution probability based on the damage state override probability of the power transmission tower line system, and analyzing the safety of the wind-induced power transmission tower line system when the damage state override probability of the joint distribution probability reaches a set threshold;
The process for analyzing the safety of the wind-driven transmission tower line system comprises the following steps of: according to the distribution characteristics of wind speed and ground wire temperature in a database, a wind speed edge distribution probability model and a temperature edge distribution probability model are respectively established, a combined distribution model of the wind speed edge distribution probability model and a combined distribution model of the temperature edge distribution probability model are established, and the combined distribution probability of the wind speed and the ground wire temperature is calculated; multiplying the joint distribution probability of the wind speed and the temperature of the ground wire by the damage state overrun probability of the vulnerability curve of the corresponding power transmission tower wire system to form a power transmission tower wire system damage probability curved surface under the common influence of the wind speed and the temperature;
The process for constructing the joint distribution model of the wind speed edge distribution probability model and the joint distribution model of the temperature edge distribution probability model comprises the following steps: and constructing a joint distribution model of the wind speed edge distribution probability model and a joint distribution model of the temperature edge distribution probability model by adopting a Copula function.
2. The method for evaluating wind induced response influence and safety of a power transmission tower line system according to claim 1, wherein the vulnerability curves of the power transmission tower line system at different temperatures are:
FR(IMo)＝P(EDP≥DSi|IM＝IMo)
Wherein F R(IMo) is the probability that the structural performance state reaches or exceeds a certain critical value, EDP is a structural demand parameter, DS i is the ith damage state of the structure, and IM is a wind load intensity index.
3. The method for evaluating wind induced response influence and safety of a power transmission tower line system according to claim 1, wherein the model considering the probability of wind speed and predicted temperature joint distribution is: a Copula function is adopted to establish a joint distribution model between wind speed and ground wire temperature, and the adopted function is as follows:
f(x,y)＝c(u,v)·f(x)·g(y)
in the method, in the process of the invention, Density function, which is a two-dimensional Copula function,/>And/> Probability density functions for wind speed and ground wire temperature, respectively.
4. A transmission tower line system wind induced response impact and security assessment system, comprising:
A data acquisition module configured to: determining a power transmission tower line system to be evaluated, and acquiring ground wire parameters, power transmission tower line system operation data and environmental meteorological data;
a model building module configured to: establishing a ground wire temperature prediction model according to the ground wire parameters;
The temperature prediction model of the conductive wire is determined according to a static heat balance equation of the conductive wire, and the static heat balance equation of the conductive wire is as follows:
qc+qr＝qs+I2R(Tavg)
Wherein q c is the rate of convection heat loss per unit length, q r is the rate of radiant heat loss per unit length, q s is the solar heat gain, I is the conductor current, and R (T avg) is the alternating current resistance of the conductor at that temperature;
When the parameters of the lead and the current delivery power are determined, the I 2R(Tavg item of the static heat balance equation of the lead can be regarded as a constant value, and the q c and q s items of the static heat balance equation of the lead are only influenced by the temperature T s of the lead;
a database construction module configured to: based on the operation data of the power transmission tower line system and the environmental meteorological data, a ground wire temperature prediction model is adopted to obtain the ground wire temperature, so that a database is constructed;
A wind-induced response impact analysis module configured to: based on a database, analyzing a ground wire-insulator model and a finite element model of a power transmission tower wire system, determining an influence rule of the temperature change of the ground wire on the safety of the power transmission tower wire system under wind load, calculating failure probability of the power transmission tower wire system under different ground wire temperatures and wind speed working conditions, and establishing a vulnerability curve of the power transmission tower wire system under different temperatures; calculating the damage state overrun probability of the power transmission tower line system according to the vulnerability curves of the power transmission tower line system at different temperatures;
The process for analyzing the earth wire-insulator model and the finite element model of the transmission tower wire system comprises the following steps: determining the sag and stress change rule of the ground lead caused by the temperature change of the ground lead, calculating the modal information of the ground lead-insulator model and the modal information of the finite element model of the power transmission tower line system under different ground lead temperatures, comparing and analyzing to obtain the response, ultimate bearing capacity and damage characteristics of the ground lead and the power transmission tower line system under the wind load effect under different ground lead temperatures, and determining the influence rule of the temperature change on the safety of the power transmission tower line system under the wind load;
A security analysis module configured to: calculating damage state override probability considering wind speed and predicted temperature joint distribution probability based on the damage state override probability of the power transmission tower line system, and analyzing the safety of the wind-induced power transmission tower line system when the damage state override probability of the joint distribution probability reaches a set threshold;
The process for analyzing the safety of the wind-driven transmission tower line system comprises the following steps of: according to the distribution characteristics of wind speed and ground wire temperature in a database, a wind speed edge distribution probability model and a temperature edge distribution probability model are respectively established, a combined distribution model of the wind speed edge distribution probability model and a combined distribution model of the temperature edge distribution probability model are established, and the combined distribution probability of the wind speed and the ground wire temperature is calculated; multiplying the joint distribution probability of the wind speed and the temperature of the ground wire by the damage state overrun probability of the vulnerability curve of the corresponding power transmission tower wire system to form a power transmission tower wire system damage probability curved surface under the common influence of the wind speed and the temperature;
The process for constructing the joint distribution model of the wind speed edge distribution probability model and the joint distribution model of the temperature edge distribution probability model comprises the following steps: and constructing a joint distribution model of the wind speed edge distribution probability model and a joint distribution model of the temperature edge distribution probability model by adopting a Copula function.
5. A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, which when executed by a processor, implements the steps in the transmission tower system wind induced response impact and security assessment method according to any of claims 1-3.
6. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps in the transmission tower system wind induced response impact and security assessment method according to any one of claims 1-3 when the program is executed by the processor.
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