CN116739439A - Artificial precipitation work effect evaluation method based on visual regional comparison - Google Patents
Artificial precipitation work effect evaluation method based on visual regional comparison Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a regional visual comparison-based artificial precipitation enhancement operation effect evaluation method, which comprises a comparison region random generation algorithm, a comparison region selection algorithm based on the calculation of the similarity of multiple characteristic parameters of the precipitation, terrain, radar, satellite and the like of an hour-by-hour influence region and a comparison region thereof, and an operation effect calculation algorithm based on the relative precipitation enhancement rate and precipitation enhancement amount of a regional visual comparison method. According to the invention, through a technology based on multi-characteristic parameter comparison area selection, the objectivity and scientificity of comparison area selection are improved, and on the basis of meeting the requirement of visual comparison and statistics inspection of a single operation area, the evaluation of the effect of multiple artificial precipitation enhancement operations which are simultaneously carried out is realized; the method is suitable for artificial precipitation and artificial snow-increasing operation effect evaluation.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of statistical inspection of artificial precipitation catalysis operation effects, in particular to an artificial precipitation operation effect evaluation method based on visual regional comparison.
Background
Generally, the effect of artificial precipitation can be obtained by analyzing the macro-micro parameter change in the cloud and the ground precipitation change, and artificial catalysis essentially depends on a natural cloud-precipitation process, so that the difficulty is how to strip the effect from the natural changes of the cloud and the precipitation. In actual effect evaluation, according to evaluation means, it is classified into a statistical test, a physical test, a numerical pattern test, and the like. The statistical test focuses on the precipitation increment which can be detected and quantitatively analyzed, the operation effect is quantitatively tested by using a probability theory and a mathematical statistical theory, the main evaluation object of the statistical test is ground precipitation, and the difference value of the natural precipitation which is not operated and the precipitation after operation is compared and the significance of the difference value is analyzed. Generally, the difference between the two is the work effect.
The regional visual comparison method is a common statistical test method, takes the change rate of the physical parameters of the comparison region as the natural change rate, and obtains the rain increasing operation effect through the comparison analysis of the parameters of the comparison region of the influence region. The method is more flexible in use because no history data is needed, and is widely applied to the normalized rapid evaluation of the actual image service. However, the important comparison area selection of the method has great subjectivity, and the similarity of multiple physical parameters such as precipitation, radar and the like is difficult to consider, and in addition, the method can only evaluate the effect of a single operation influence area at present, and is difficult to develop for multiple operations which are simultaneously developed. Therefore, a method for evaluating the effect of the artificial precipitation operation based on visual comparison of areas is needed.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above-mentioned drawbacks of the prior art, the present invention provides a method for evaluating the effect of artificial precipitation based on visual comparison of areas, which aims to solve the technical problems of the prior art that the subjectivity is strong and the area of influence is difficult to evaluate.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides a method for evaluating the effect of artificial precipitation work based on visual comparison of areas, which specifically comprises the following steps:
selecting single operation or multiple operation information aiming at a target cloud body, and calculating to obtain an hour-by-hour operation influence area;
b, randomly generating a plurality of comparison areas with the same shape and the same size around the hour-by-hour operation influence area, wherein the comparison areas are not influenced by operation catalysis;
calculating a plurality of characteristic parameter similarities of the hour-by-hour operation influence area and the comparison area, obtaining weighted similarity by setting corresponding parameter weights, and selecting one or more comparison areas with the largest weighted similarity as an optimal comparison area;
and D, calculating the relative rainfall increase rate and rainfall increase amount of the operation based on a regional visual comparison method to obtain the operation effect.
Further, the method for calculating the hour-by-hour operation influence area in the step A comprises the following steps:
step A-1, selecting single or multiple jobs with a target of uniform layered cloud or partial layered mixed cloud, wherein the multiple jobs require time intersection of influence areas of the jobs;
and step A-2, calculating an influence area of each operation by utilizing three-dimensional wind field data based on a catalyst transmission diffusion model, and calculating a combined influence area of the overlapped influence areas to obtain an hourly influence area product.
And carrying out merging influence region calculation on the influence regions overlapped in time and space, avoiding repeated calculation operation effects, and obtaining an hour-by-hour influence region aiming at cloud body operation as an object of next analysis.
Further, the method for randomly generating the contrast area in the step B specifically includes:
the method for randomly generating the comparison areas is characterized in that a plurality of comparison areas are generated within the range of 10-200km around the influence area and are not influenced by operation catalysis, hour-by-hour areas of the plurality of comparison areas correspond to the hour-by-hour operation influence area, and the hour-by-hour operation influence area comprises information of the hour-by-hour influence area 3-5 hours after operation.
The comparison area generation principle comprises that the size and the shape of the comparison area are the same as those of the influence area, the comparison area is not influenced by operation catalysis, and the position of the comparison area is in an area near the influence area, wherein the comparison area is not influenced by operation catalysis, specifically, the comparison area is not covered by the influence area of other operations except for selected operations within the same time within the scope of the comparison area, the adjacent area requires the comparison area to be arranged on two sides of the influence area or in an area upstream of a weather system, and the general distance from the influence area is not more than 200km.
Further, in the step C, the feature parameter similarity is a space-time matching terrain similarity, an hour-by-hour precipitation similarity, a 6-minute radar combined reflectivity similarity, a 30-minute satellite inversion cloud top height similarity, and the parameter weight corresponds to a similarity of the terrain similarity and the precipitation, and a similarity of radar and satellite data time sequence curves.
The similarity method can comprehensively compare the similarity between two samples from the two aspects of the distance (numerical difference) and the shape between the sample curves. Specifically, firstly, calculating the curves of physical parameters such as the average surface rainfall per hour of an influence area and a contrast area, the radar combined echo per 6 minutes, the satellite inversion cloud top height per 30 minutes and the like, which evolve along with time within 3-5 hours after operation, calculating the value coefficient and the line coefficient between the corresponding curves of the influence area and the contrast area based on a similarity degree algorithm, reflecting the difference degree and the shape similarity degree of the two curves on the total average numerical value, taking the average value of the value coefficient and the line coefficient as the similarity degree of the two curves, and indicating that the two curves are more similar in the distance and the shape.
Further, the calculation method of the terrain similarity judges the terrain similarity by comparing the Hamming distances of two terrain pictures, generates a fingerprint character string for each picture, and uses the data bit with the difference of the hash values of the character strings as the representation of the Hamming distance between the pictures.
The method specifically comprises the following steps:
the size is reduced, details of the picture are removed, only basic information such as structures, brightness and the like is reserved, and picture differences brought by different sizes and proportions are abandoned. The picture is reduced to a size of 8 x 8, and total 64 pixels are formed;
simplifying the color, and converting the reduced picture into 64-level gray scale;
calculating the gray average value of all 64 pixels;
comparing the gray value of the pixel, comparing the gray of each pixel with the average value, wherein the average value is 1, and the average value is 0;
and combining the comparison result of the previous step into a 64-bit integer, namely a hash value, obtaining fingerprints of the pictures, and comparing fingerprints of different pictures, namely comparing data bits with different hash values, wherein the data bits are used as the representation of the Hamming distance between the pictures.
If the number of data bits with difference is not more than 5, the two pictures are similar; if the distance is larger than 10, the images are two different images, the Hamming distance of the topographic images of the affected area and the contrast area is taken as the representation of the topographic similarity, and the smaller the Hamming distance is, the more similar the topography of the two images is.
Further, the area visual comparison method in the step D uses the hour-by-hour precipitation as a comparison object, and calculates the formula of the hour-by-hour physical parameter ratio of the influence area and the comparison area by the average precipitation of the corresponding lattice points in the hour-by-hour influence area and the optimal comparison area as follows:
wherein ,for influencing the regional parameter mean value +.>For comparison of the regional parameter mean +.>The ratio of the mean value of the parameters of the affected area to the mean value of the parameters of the contrast area is determined;
normalizing the ratio of the precipitation of the hour-by-hour operation influence area to the precipitation of the comparison area to obtain the hour-by-hour operation influence periodCalculate its average +.>Further obtaining the relative rainfall increase rate and the absolute rainfall increase of the operation, wherein the normalization treatment is to add all hours +.>Value divided by +.1 hours after the operation>The value of the operation influence period is generally 3 hours of ground operation and 5 hours of airplane operation, and the formula of the relative rain increasing rate is +.>The absolute rainfall increment formula is;
wherein ,representing the difference of precipitation in natural background of the affected area and the contrast area, < >>For the relative precipitation rate, wherein the ratio reference value of precipitation of the influence area and the comparison area is 1,/and->Indicating the degree to which the ratio exceeds the reference value after the operation, i.e., the relative rain rate, < >>To influence area>In order to influence the precipitation average of the area, the calculation formulas of the front and back change rates of the radar and satellite parameters are the same as the relative precipitation rate.
By adopting the scheme, the artificial precipitation work effect evaluation method based on visual regional comparison has the following advantages:
(1) According to the method for selecting the comparison area by utilizing the multi-characteristic parameters, the automatic objective generation of the operation comparison area can be realized, excessive subjective intervention is avoided, and the scientificity and rationality of the selection of the comparison area are enhanced by introducing characteristic parameters such as topography, precipitation, radar echo and the like;
(2) The invention can develop regional visual contrast analysis aiming at conventional single operation, can also carry out contrast analysis on multiple operations of the same cloud body, widens the application scene of the regional visual contrast method, strengthens the use capability of the technology, and can strengthen the technical means of artificial precipitation effect evaluation;
(3) The technical method disclosed by the invention is simple to operate and clear in flow, can meet the requirements of rapid statistical test effect evaluation of most uniform cloud body rain-increasing catalytic operation, and has a good technical application prospect.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is an overall flow chart of a method for evaluating the effect of a rainmaking operation based on visual comparison of areas;
fig. 2 is a main flow chart of a comparison area selection method of the artificial precipitation work effect evaluation method based on visual comparison of areas.
Detailed Description
The following describes embodiments of the present invention to make the technical contents thereof more clear and easy to understand. This invention may be embodied in many different forms of embodiments which are exemplary of the description and the scope of the invention is not limited to only the embodiments set forth herein.
As shown in fig. 1 and 2, the evaluation steps of the artificial precipitation enhancement operation effect of the single operation performed on the target cloud body based on the visual comparison of the areas in the embodiment 1 are as follows:
step 1, selecting cloud opening aiming at targetAnd (5) calculating the single operation or a plurality of operation information to obtain an hour-by-hour operation influence area. Aiming at a precipitation cloud system in south of Gansu of 5.9.2023 as a target cloud body, selecting one-time layered cloud aircraft for precipitation enhancement operation, wherein the flight range is 103-108E,35-37N, the operation duration is 1.5 hours, 28 flame strips are combusted, an hour-by-hour influence area of 5 hours after operation is calculated based on an aircraft moving point source diffusion model, and the accumulated influence area is 3.3 ten thousand km 2 ；
Step 2, randomly generating 20 comparison areas with the same size and shape around the influence area on the basis of meeting the comparison area generation principle aiming at the selected influence area, wherein 6 comparison areas are in accordance with the comparison area generation principle;
and 3, calculating the similarity of the influence area and the contrast area in terms of the precipitation amount, the topography, the radar, the satellite and other multi-characteristic parameters, setting different parameter weights to obtain weighted similarity, selecting one or more contrast areas with the largest weighted similarity as an optimal contrast area, selecting two characteristic parameters of the topography and the precipitation amount as characteristic values selected by the contrast areas, calculating the similarity of the influence area and the 6 contrast areas in terms of the topography and the precipitation amount per hour by respectively utilizing a Hamming contrast method and a similarity algorithm, setting the weights of the topography and the precipitation amount characteristic parameters to be 0.2 and 0.8 respectively, obtaining the weighted similarity between the influence area and the 6 contrast areas by weighted average calculation, and selecting the optimal contrast area as an analysis object, wherein the precipitation amount similarity per hour is 0.07, and the Hamming distance is 96.9.
Step 4, calculating the relative rainfall increase rate and the rainfall increase amount of the operation based on a region visual comparison method, giving out an operation effect, aiming at the hour-by-hour influence region of the airplane rainfall increase operation and the comparison region selected in the step 3, taking the hour-by-hour rainfall as a comparison analysis object, and calculating to obtain the hour-by-hour average rainfall of the influence region and the comparison region, wherein the average rainfall is respectively and />Further calculating to obtain the hour-by-hour parameter ratio>0-1 hour after the start of the operation is the initial time, < + >>Representing the difference in the natural background precipitation of the affected area and the contrast area, then->、/>、/>、/>The difference of precipitation in the operation influence area and the contrast area within 1-5 hours after the operation is started under the influence of catalysis is represented, and the +.>=1, then 1 to 5 hours after the operation can be obtained>、/>、/>、/>The values are 1, 1.107, 1.659, 1.223 and 1.651 respectively, and 1 to 5 hours are taken>The average value 1.328 of (2) represents the working effect, the relative rain-increasing rate is +.>And further calculating to obtain absolute rainfall increase of +.>=917 ten thousand tons.
Method for evaluating effect of twice ground operation artificial precipitation operation aiming at same layered cloud based on visual comparison of areas in embodiment 2
Step 1, selecting single operation or a plurality of operation information aiming at a target cloud body, calculating to obtain an hour-by-hour operation influence area, selecting two ground operations aiming at a layered cloud precipitation cloud system of river north of 7 th of 2023, wherein the operation points are near 117.7E and 41.4N, 9 rocket projectiles are launched altogether, calculating to obtain the hour-by-hour influence area of 3 hours after operation based on a catalyst transmission diffusion model, and the areas of the two operation influence areas are 319.6 km and 338.1km respectively 2 The area of the combined influence area is 338.1km 2 。
And 2, randomly generating a plurality of comparison areas with the same size and shape around the influence area on the basis of meeting the comparison area generation principle aiming at the selected influence area, and generating 18 groups of hour-by-hour comparison areas around the hour-by-hour combination influence area.
And 3, calculating the similarity of the rainfall, terrain, radar, satellite and other multi-characteristic parameters of the influence area and the contrast area, setting different parameter weights to obtain weighted similarity, selecting one or more contrast areas with the largest weighted similarity as an optimal contrast area, selecting two characteristic parameters of the terrain and the rainfall as characteristic values selected by the contrast areas, calculating the similarity of the influence area and the 18 contrast areas in terms of the terrain and the hour-by-hour rainfall by using a Hamming contrast method and a similarity algorithm, setting the weights of the characteristic parameters of the terrain and the rainfall to be 0.2 and 0.8 respectively, obtaining the weighted similarity between the influence area and the 18 contrast areas by weighted average calculation, selecting one contrast area with the smallest weighted similarity as an analysis object, wherein the hour-by-hour rainfall similarity is 0.13, and the hamming distance is 31.09.
Step 4, based on the area visual comparison method, calculating the relative rainfall increase rate, the rainfall increase and other parameter change rates of the operation, giving out the operation effect, aiming at the hour-by-hour influence area of the airplane rainfall increase operation and the comparison area selected in the step 3, taking the hour-by-hour rainfall as a comparison analysis object,calculating the average precipitation amount per hour of the influence area and the comparison area respectively as follows and />Further calculating to obtain the hour-by-hour parameter ratio>0-1 hour after the start of the operation is the initial time, < + >>Representing the difference in the natural background precipitation of the affected area and the contrast area, then->、/>The difference of precipitation amounts of the operation influence area and the comparison area within 1-3 hours after the operation is started under the catalytic influence is expressed, and the values are respectively that ∈10 is obtained by normalization processing>=1, 1 to 3 hours +.>The average value of 0.656 represents the working effect, the relative rain-increasing rate is +.>And further calculating to obtain absolute rainfall increase of +.>Is-21.6 ten thousand tons.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art, who is within the scope of the present invention, should make equivalent substitutions or modifications according to the technical scheme of the present invention and the inventive concept thereof, and should be covered by the scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. The artificial precipitation work effect evaluation method based on visual regional comparison is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
selecting single operation or multiple operation information aiming at a target cloud body, and calculating to obtain an hour-by-hour operation influence area;
b, randomly generating a plurality of comparison areas with the same shape and the same size around the hour-by-hour operation influence area, wherein the comparison areas are not influenced by operation catalysis;
calculating a plurality of characteristic parameter similarities of the hour-by-hour operation influence area and the comparison area, obtaining weighted similarity by setting corresponding parameter weights, and selecting one or more comparison areas with the largest weighted similarity as an optimal comparison area;
and D, calculating the relative rainfall increase rate and rainfall increase amount of the operation based on a regional visual comparison method to obtain the operation effect.
2. The method for evaluating the effect of the artificial precipitation operation based on visual regional comparison according to claim 1, wherein the method for calculating the hour-by-hour operation influence area in the step a comprises the following steps:
step A-1, selecting single or multiple jobs with a target of uniform layered cloud or partial layered mixed cloud, wherein the multiple jobs require time intersection of influence areas of the jobs;
and step A-2, calculating an influence area of each operation by utilizing three-dimensional wind field data based on a catalyst transmission diffusion model, and calculating a combined influence area of the overlapped influence areas to obtain an hourly influence area product.
3. The method for evaluating the effect of the artificial precipitation work based on the visual comparison of the areas according to claim 1, wherein in the step B, the method for randomly generating the comparison areas is specifically as follows:
the method for randomly generating the comparison areas is characterized in that a plurality of comparison areas are generated within the range of 10-200km around the influence area and are not influenced by operation catalysis, hour-by-hour areas of the plurality of comparison areas correspond to the hour-by-hour operation influence area, and the hour-by-hour operation influence area comprises information of the hour-by-hour influence area 3-5 hours after operation.
4. The method for evaluating the effect of the artificial precipitation operation based on the visual regional comparison according to claim 1, wherein in the step C, the feature parameter similarity is a time-space matching terrain similarity, an hour-by-hour precipitation similarity, a 6-minute radar combined reflectivity similarity, a 30-minute satellite inversion cloud top height similarity, and the parameter weight corresponds to the terrain similarity and precipitation, and the similarity of radar and satellite data time sequence curves.
5. The method for evaluating the effect of the artificial precipitation operation based on the visual comparison of areas according to claim 4, wherein the method for calculating the similarity of terrains judges the similarity of terrains by comparing the Hamming distances of two terrains, generates a fingerprint character string for each picture, and uses the data bit with the difference of hash values of the character strings as the representation of the Hamming distance between the pictures.
6. The method for evaluating the effect of the artificial precipitation operation based on the visual comparison of the areas according to claim 1, wherein the visual comparison of the areas in the step D uses the hour-by-hour precipitation as a comparison object, and the formula of the hour-by-hour physical parameter ratio of the influence area to the comparison area is calculated by the average precipitation of the corresponding lattice points in the hour-by-hour influence area and the optimal comparison area as follows:
；
wherein ,for influencing the regional parameter mean value +.>For comparison of the regional parameter mean +.>The ratio of the mean value of the parameters of the affected area to the mean value of the parameters of the contrast area is determined;
normalizing the ratio of the precipitation of the hour-by-hour operation influence area to the precipitation of the comparison area to obtain the hour-by-hour operation influence periodCalculate its average +.>Further obtaining the relative rainfall increase rate and the absolute rainfall increase of the operation, wherein the normalization treatment is to add all hours +.>Value divided by +.1 hours after the operation>The value of the operation influence period is generally 3 hours of ground operation and 5 hours of airplane operation, and the formula of the relative rain increasing rate is +.>The absolute rainfall increment formula is +.>;
wherein ,representing the difference of precipitation in natural background of the affected area and the contrast area, < >>For the relative precipitation rate, wherein the ratio reference value of precipitation of the influence area and the comparison area is 1,/and->Indicating the degree to which the ratio exceeds the reference value after the operation, i.e. the relative rain-increasing rate,to influence area>In order to influence the precipitation average of the area, the calculation formulas of the front and back change rates of the radar and satellite parameters are the same as the relative precipitation rate.
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