CN116738115A - Storm intensity formula applicability judging method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application provides a method for judging applicability of a storm intensity formula, which comprises the following steps: step one: acquiring rainfall data of the area in the past year, and constructing a heavy rain data statistical sample; step two: obtaining rainfall theoretical values of 11 in different reproduction periods by adopting the pearson III type curve distribution; step three: and judging whether a stormwater intensity formula is applicable according to the error between theoretical values of rainfall under different reproduction periods of 11 duration. According to the application, through analyzing and counting rainfall data with different durations in the past year, the pearson III-type curve distribution function is utilized to fit the distribution curve of the storm intensity, the reproduction period and the duration of each region, and the applicable conditions of the storm intensity formula in different areas and different time ranges are obtained according to the error analysis applicable to the storm intensity formula, so that the uncertainty of the application range of the storm intensity formula is solved, the difficulty of inconvenient use of the water conservancy department formula is overcome, and the coordination of municipal department standards and water conservancy department standards is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to a judging method, in particular to a stormwater intensity formula applicability judging method, and belongs to the technical field of hydrology.
Background
Flood control safety is an important foundation for national safety and social stability, and is an important base line constraint for guaranteeing urban high-quality development and high-quality life. However, in the global climate change and high-intensity urbanization background, the frequency and intensity of storm in urban areas are increased, and the sustainable development of life and property safety and socioeconomic performance of people is seriously threatened. In order to effectively improve the urban flood control and disaster reduction engineering capability and reduce the urban flood disaster risk, the interaction of urban pipe network drainage, regional flood control and river basin flood control must be comprehensively considered. The stormwater intensity equation that takes these factors into account is generally referred to as the long duration stormwater intensity equation.
The rapid development of urban design causes continuous expansion of cities, increase of building density and increase of impermeable pavement, and in recent years, the urban design is influenced by global climate change, and the phenomenon of unsmooth drainage and waterlogging occurs due to the fact that the regional maximum rainfall event frequently occurs in the region, and the urban design is revised in storm intensity formula at present because of regional differences of space-time changes of extreme rainfall of different durations, but the applicability of the storm intensity formula is needed to be judged again mainly aiming at main urban areas, so that the method for judging the applicability of the storm intensity formula is provided.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the foregoing, it is desirable to provide a method for determining suitability of a stormwater intensity formula, so as to solve or alleviate the technical problems in the prior art, and at least provide a beneficial choice.
The technical scheme of the embodiment of the application is realized as follows: the method for judging the applicability of the storm intensity formula comprises the following steps:
step one: acquiring rainfall data of the area in the past year, and constructing a heavy rain data statistical sample;
step two: obtaining rainfall theoretical values of 11 in different reproduction periods by adopting the pearson III type curve distribution;
step three: adopting a least square method to calculate the storm intensity formula parameter, and using absolute error and relative error as main evaluation indexes of the formula;
step four: analyzing the rainfall parameter, the rainfall fluctuation parameter, the duration correction parameter and the storm attenuation index of the storm intensity formula;
step five: analyzing absolute errors and relative errors among theoretical values of the storm intensity in different areas;
step six: judging the space applicability of a storm intensity formula;
step seven: analyzing absolute errors and relative errors among theoretical values of the storm intensity in different periods;
step eight: analyzing the time applicability of a storm intensity formula;
step nine: and (3) analyzing fitting errors of the storm intensity formula on the storm intensities in different time periods in different areas, verifying rationality of space-time analysis, and determining a space-time application range of the storm intensity formula.
Further preferably, in said step one, the rainfall duration is selected from 11 durations of 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes, 20 minutes, 30 minutes, 45 minutes, 60 minutes, 90 minutes, 120 minutes, 150 minutes and 180 minutes.
Further preferably, in the third step, the applicability of the stormwater intensity formula is analyzed by absolute error and relative error.
Further preferably, in the fourth step, the rainfall variation parameter is a value obtained by correcting the rainfall parameter by the change in the reproduction period.
Further preferably, in the fourth step, the duration correction parameter is a time parameter added to the curve obtained by logarithm of both sides of the storm intensity formula, and the storm decay index is a decay index of the storm intensity with duration and a reproduction period.
Further preferably, in the fourth step, the rainfall parameter of the stormwater intensity formula is a design rainfall for 1 minute with a reproduction period of 1 year.
Further preferably, in the fifth step, the absolute error and the relative error are calculated by the theoretical precipitation amount and the number of samples, respectively.
Further preferably, in the fifth step, the error of the stormwater intensity formula is calculated according to the average absolute variance and the average variance of the stormwater intensity formulas in two different regions.
Further preferably, in the step nine, the variance of the formula of the storm intensity meets the requirement that the average absolute variance is not more than 0.05mm/min at the common intensity and not more than 5% at the larger intensity when the reproduction period is 2-20 years.
Further preferably, in the step nine, the condition that the storm intensity formula is to be spatially applied is that the absolute error and the relative error of the storm intensity of two places are within the standard requirement range, and the condition that the storm intensity formula is continuously applied backwards is that the absolute error and the relative error of the storm intensity of two years are within the standard requirement range.
By adopting the technical scheme, the embodiment of the application has the following advantages: according to the application, through analyzing and counting rainfall data of the calendar duration, absolute errors and relative errors are used as main evaluation indexes of a formula, the pearson III-type curve distribution function is used for fitting the distribution curves of the storm intensity, the reproduction period and the duration of each region, the parameters of different storm intensity formulas in different ages are analyzed according to the rainfall parameters of the storm intensity formulas, the rainfall variation parameters and the storm attenuation index, and whether the storm intensity formulas are applicable or not is judged according to the errors among theoretical values of rainfall under different reproduction periods in 11 duration, so that the limitation of the application range of the storm intensity formulas is solved, the difficulty of inconvenient use of the water conservancy department formulas is overcome, and the coordination of municipal department standards and water conservancy department standards is improved.
The foregoing summary is for the purpose of the specification only and is not intended to be limiting in any way. In addition to the illustrative aspects, embodiments, and features described above, further aspects, embodiments, and features of the present application will become apparent by reference to the drawings and the following detailed description.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings that are necessary for the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described, it being obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the application and that other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the steps of the present application.
Detailed Description
Hereinafter, only certain exemplary embodiments are briefly described. As will be recognized by those of skill in the pertinent art, the described embodiments may be modified in various different ways without departing from the spirit or scope of the present application. Accordingly, the drawings and description are to be regarded as illustrative in nature and not as restrictive.
Embodiments of the present application will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
As shown in fig. 1, the embodiment of the application provides a method for judging suitability of a stormwater intensity formula, which comprises the following steps:
step one: acquiring rainfall data of the area in the past year, and constructing a heavy rain data statistical sample;
step two: obtaining rainfall theoretical values of 11 in different reproduction periods by adopting the pearson III type curve distribution;
step three: adopting a least square method to calculate the storm intensity formula parameter, and using absolute error and relative error as main evaluation indexes of the formula;
step four: analyzing the rainfall parameter, the rainfall fluctuation parameter, the duration correction parameter and the storm attenuation index of the storm intensity formula;
step five: analyzing absolute errors and relative errors among theoretical values of the storm intensity in different areas;
step six: judging the space applicability of a storm intensity formula;
step seven: analyzing absolute errors and relative errors among theoretical values of the storm intensity in different periods;
step eight: analyzing the time applicability of a storm intensity formula;
step nine: and (3) analyzing fitting errors of the storm intensity formula on the storm intensities in different time periods in different areas, verifying rationality of space-time analysis, and determining a space-time application range of the storm intensity formula.
In one embodiment, in step one, the rainfall duration is selected from 11 durations of 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes, 20 minutes, 30 minutes, 45 minutes, 60 minutes, 90 minutes, 120 minutes, 150 minutes, and 180 minutes, and in step three, the applicability of the stormwater intensity formula is analyzed by absolute and relative error, the stormwater intensity formula being:
q is the intensity of storm, unit: l/(s.hm2) is the reproduction period (unit: a), and the current value range is 2a-100a; t is rainfall duration (unit: mi n), and the value range is 1-180 mi n. The longer the recurrence period, the shorter the duration, the greater the intensity of the storm, while A1, C, b, n are parameters related to the nature of the local storm and requiring solution: a1, designing rainfall (unit: mm) by 1 min when the rainfall parameter is 1 a; c is a rain force variation parameter; b is rainfall duration correction parameter, namely a time parameter (unit: mi) added to the curve to be linear after the logarithm is calculated on two sides of the intensity formula of the rainfall; n is a storm decay index, which is related to the recurrence period.
In one embodiment, in step three, absolute and relative errors are calculated from the theoretical precipitation, the actual precipitation, the duration of precipitation, and the number of samples, respectively,
the mean absolute mean square error formula is:
the average relative mean square error formula is:wherein R' is theoretical precipitation, R is actual precipitation, t is duration of precipitation, and N is the number of samples.
In one embodiment, in the third step, the variance of the storm intensity formula is calculated according to the average absolute variance and the average relative variance of the storm intensity formulas in the two different regions of the year, and the average absolute method and the average relative variance of the storm intensity formulas in the two different regions of the year are shown in the following table.
In one embodiment, in the third step, the variance of the storm intensity formula meets the requirement that the average absolute variance is not more than 0.05mm/min at the place of the general intensity and not more than 5% at the place of the larger intensity when the reproduction period is 2-20 years, and the variance of the storm intensity formula meets the requirement as can be seen from the table.
In one embodiment, in the fourth step, the rainfall parameter of the formula of the storm intensity is a design rainfall for 1 minute with a reproduction period of 1 year, and the rainfall parameter is as follows:as can be seen from the following table, the 2020 type storm intensity formula has the largest rainfall force parameter which is the third region, the seventh region, the fifth region, the minimum rainfall force parameter, and the 2013 type storm intensity formula has the largest rainfall force parameter which is the seventh region, the third region and the fifth region; the 2020 version of rainfall parameter is increased compared with the 2013 version of region two, region three and region six, and the other regions are reduced, so that the intensity of the storm in the region two, region three and region six is improved;
in one embodiment, in the fourth step, the rainfall variation parameter is an ordered value of the rainfall parameter due to the change of the reproduction period, and the rainfall variation parameters of different ages are shown in the following table, where the 2020 version of the rainfall variation parameter is that the first, third, sixth and eighth regions are unchanged, the second region is reduced, the other regions are increased, the 2020 version of the 2013 version of the formula of the storm intensity is explained, the second storm intensity is reduced along with the increase of the reproduction period, the fourth, fifth and seventh regions are in an increasing trend, and the other regions are not obvious in change.
In one embodiment, in the fourth step, the duration correction parameter is a time parameter added to the curve to be linear after logarithm of two sides of the storm intensity formula, the storm attenuation index is an attenuation index of the storm intensity with duration and reproduction period, and the duration correction parameter formula is: l (L)gq＝A 2 Nlg (t+b), wherein A2 is the rain force coefficient of a certain reproduction period, and a constant is obtained after the reproduction period is fixed;
as can be seen from the following table, the duration correction parameter of the 2020 version of the stormwater intensity formula is the largest in the second region, the smallest in the sixth region, the largest in the 2013 version in the second region, the smallest in the seventh region, and the duration correction parameter of the fourth 2020 version in the fourth region is smaller than that in the 2013 version, and the other regions are all increased, wherein the increase amplitude of the second region is the largest, which means that the maximum precipitation in most regions is in an increasing trend along with the duration fluctuation.
The storm attenuation index of the storm intensity formula is the attenuation index of the storm intensity along with the duration and the reproduction period, and the following table shows that the attenuation index of the region II of the storm intensity formula of 2020 edition is the largest, the region III is the smallest, the 2013 edition is consistent with the 2020 edition, the region III, the region IV, the region six and the region seven are reduced, and the other regions are increased.
In one embodiment, in the step nine, the condition that the storm intensity formula is to be spatially applied is that the absolute error and the relative error of the storm intensity of two places are within the standard requirement range, and the condition that the storm intensity formula is continuously applied backwards is that the absolute error and the relative error of the storm intensity of two years are within the standard requirement range; respectively fitting the storm intensity of other areas of the same period by using a 2020 edition and 2013 edition main urban area storm intensity formula, wherein the error is shown in the following table; as can be seen from the following table, the fitting of the 2020 edition main urban area storm intensity formula to the regional three storm intensity meets the standard requirements, and the other areas do not meet the standard requirements. The fitting error of the 2013 edition main urban area storm intensity formula to the storm intensity of other areas does not meet the standard requirement, and the method cannot be directly applied;
the variance of the fitted stormwater intensity for each 1991-2020 year for the stormwater intensity formulas for each region of version 2013 is shown in the table below. As can be seen from the following table, the stormwater intensity formulas of the first, second, fifth and eighth version of 2013 meet the standard requirements on the fitting errors of the stormwater intensities in 1991-2020, and the stormwater intensity formulas can be used continuously, and the errors of the third, fourth, sixth and seventh version of the stormwater intensity formulas can not be used continuously and need to be revised again by new data in 1991-2020;
as shown in the table below, the absolute error and the relative error of the storm intensity of the main urban area in 1991-2020 and the storm intensity of the same period of time of the area are all in the range of the standard requirement, and the errors of other areas are larger than the standard requirement except that the relative error of the seventh area is smaller than the standard requirement. Therefore, the condition for spatial application of the storm intensity formula is that the absolute error and the relative error of the two storm intensities are within the standard requirement range;
as can be seen from the following table, the absolute errors and the relative errors of the storm intensity of the first, third, seventh and fourth two years are all within the standard requirement range, so that the condition that the storm intensity formula of the same area is continued and applied backwards is that the absolute errors and the relative errors of the storm intensity of the two years are all within the standard requirement range.
The foregoing is merely illustrative of the present application, and the present application is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art will readily recognize that various changes and substitutions are possible within the scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (10)
1. The method for judging the applicability of the storm intensity formula is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step one: acquiring rainfall data of the area in the past year, and constructing a heavy rain data statistical sample;
step two: obtaining rainfall theoretical values of 11 in different reproduction periods by adopting the pearson III type curve distribution;
step three: adopting a least square method to calculate the storm intensity formula parameter, and using absolute error and relative error as main evaluation indexes of the formula;
step four: analyzing the rainfall parameter, the rainfall fluctuation parameter, the duration correction parameter and the storm attenuation index of the storm intensity formula;
step five: analyzing absolute errors and relative errors among theoretical values of the storm intensity in different areas;
step six: judging the space applicability of a storm intensity formula;
step seven: analyzing absolute errors and relative errors among theoretical values of the storm intensity in different periods;
step eight: analyzing the time applicability of a storm intensity formula;
step nine: and (3) analyzing fitting errors of the storm intensity formula on the storm intensities in different time periods in different areas, verifying rationality of space-time analysis, and determining a space-time application range of the storm intensity formula.
2. The method for judging applicability of a heavy rain intensity formula according to claim 1, wherein: in the first step, the rainfall duration is selected from 11 durations of 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes, 20 minutes, 30 minutes, 45 minutes, 60 minutes, 90 minutes, 120 minutes, 150 minutes, and 180 minutes.
3. The method for judging applicability of a heavy rain intensity formula according to claim 1, wherein: in the third step, the applicability of the stormwater intensity formula is analyzed by absolute error and relative error.
4. The method for judging applicability of a heavy rain intensity formula according to claim 1, wherein: in the fifth step, the variance of the storm intensity formula is calculated according to the average absolute variance and the average variance of the storm intensity formulas in different areas of the two areas.
5. The method for judging applicability of a heavy rain intensity formula according to claim 1, wherein: in the seventh step, the variance of the storm intensity formula is calculated according to the average absolute variance and the average variance of the storm intensity formulas in different areas of two years.
6. The method for judging applicability of a heavy rain intensity formula according to claim 1, wherein: in the step nine, the variance of the formula of the storm intensity accords with the requirement that when the reproduction period is 2-20 years, the average absolute variance is not more than 0.05mm/min at the place of the general intensity, and the average relative variance is not more than 5% at the place of the larger intensity.
7. The method for judging applicability of a heavy rain intensity formula according to claim 1, wherein: in the fourth step, the rainfall parameter of the storm intensity formula is the design rainfall for 1 minute with the reproduction period of 1 year.
8. The method for judging applicability of a heavy rain intensity formula according to claim 1, wherein: in the fourth step, the rainfall variation parameter is an ordered value of the rainfall parameter due to the change of the reproduction period.
9. The method for judging applicability of a heavy rain intensity formula according to claim 1, wherein: in the fourth step, the duration correction parameter is a time parameter added to the curve to be linear after the logarithm of the two sides of the storm intensity formula, and the storm attenuation index is the attenuation index of the storm intensity along with the duration and the reproduction period.
10. The method for judging applicability of a heavy rain intensity formula according to claim 1, wherein: in the step nine, the condition that the storm intensity formula is to be applied spatially is that the absolute error and the relative error of the storm intensity in two places are in the standard requirement range, and the condition that the storm intensity formula is applied continuously backwards is that the absolute error and the relative error of the storm intensity in two years are in the standard requirement range.
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20150009331A1 (en) * | 2012-02-17 | 2015-01-08 | Balaji Venkatraman | Real time railway disaster vulnerability assessment and rescue guidance system using multi-layered video computational analytics |
| CN111949928A (en) * | 2020-08-10 | 2020-11-17 | 河海大学 | Rainstorm intensity formula determination method based on rainstorm attenuation characteristics |
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Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20150009331A1 (en) * | 2012-02-17 | 2015-01-08 | Balaji Venkatraman | Real time railway disaster vulnerability assessment and rescue guidance system using multi-layered video computational analytics |
| CN111949928A (en) * | 2020-08-10 | 2020-11-17 | 河海大学 | Rainstorm intensity formula determination method based on rainstorm attenuation characteristics |
| CN112347652A (en) * | 2020-11-10 | 2021-02-09 | 艾莫瑞信息技术咨询(厦门)有限公司 | Storm high-risk zoning method based on hydrological meteorological area linear moment frequency analysis |
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| 环海军 等: "鲁中主城区暴雨强度公式的修正方法", 干旱气象, vol. 34, no. 1, 15 February 2016 (2016-02-15), pages 188 - 193 * |
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