CN1167256A - Ultra-long range weather forecast method for the effect of solar eclipse - Google Patents

Abstract

The super-long-range weather forecast method using solar eclipse effect includes the following steps: 1. firstly, disregarding influence of solar eclipse, using general circulation model to calculate rainfall per unit time; 2. considering influence of solar eclipse, using general circulation model once again to calculate rainfall per unit time; 3. subtracting the above-mentioned two results; 4. accumulating by each day, each ten days and each month so as to obtain the rainfall tendency of said day, said ten days and said month, so that it can increase the foresight time of weather forecast.

Description

The extra long-range weather forecast method of solar eclipse effect

The present invention relates to a kind of extra long-range weather forecast method.Weather forecast branch short-term, mid-term, reach four kinds of super-long-terms for a long time, short-term is the weather forecast below three days, and be the weather forecast about ten days mid-term, is one month for a long time, and super-long-term is the weather forecast more than month.The invention belongs to super-long-term numerical weather forecast scope.

U.S., European center and Japan only can make ten days with interior mid-range forecast at present, reach the super-long-term numerical weather forecast for a long time and all can not make, and key is not consider the influence of solar eclipse to solar radiation, because the energy of general circulation campaign, from solar radiation.

It is the immediate cause that forms bloods and droughts that general circulation changes, and bloods and droughts is huge to the influence of national economy.The reason that the research general circulation changes, discussion drought and waterlogging superpotential are key subjects in the present age, and this also is the research category of extra long-range weather forecast.Many researchers inquire into its rule from solar activity, ground temperature, Hai Wen, utmost point ice, volcanicity, Earth's orbit key element (Milan section dimension special effect is answered), statistical dependence etc. both at home and abroad, but still There are many different versions of a story.Because the basic power source of general circulation is solar radiation, every square centimeter the sunshine beam intensity (be solar constant) of the sun at the solar distance place be about 50,000 of Solar watch radiance/.The earth is only accepted more than 40 1/100000000th of emittance that the sun emits, and quantity is quite small.Observation from artificial earth satellite, solar constant only has irregular minor fluctuations, and its variation range only has 0.2-0.3%, changes also asynchronous with sunspot, the variation of solar constant is very little, can think that the energy of general circulation is a metastable energy.Can influence the earth and accept solar radiation, could influence the variation of general circulation campaign, accept in the external factor of solar radiation, have only solar eclipse more remarkable and can influence the earth.Because of solar eclipse takes place twice every year at least, the most nearly five times (as nineteen thirty-five), the annual because solar eclipse average influence earth is accepted the solar radiation area and is reached 1.71 * 10 ⁸KM ², be earth surface long-pending 5.1 * 10 ⁸KM ²33.5%, the most nearly 3.07 * 10 ⁸KM ²(as 1973), for earth surface long-pending 60.2%.The moon shadow area of one subcenter solar eclipse is 10 ⁸KM ², influencing earth reception solar radiation is 10 ¹⁴MJ, its radiation loss are significant.The solar eclipse process generally will experience more than 2.5 hours from the first contact to the fourth contact, and its influence time is long.From 1987, nineteen ninety-five Su County, Yucheng, island, Yongxing, Xisha solar eclipse expedition (the solar eclipse totality is 0.8-0.9) bare area surface temperature fall at 10-15 ℃, influence the face of land degree of depth and reach 20cm, No. 1 research ship of science on September 23rd, 1987 is (19 ° of 30 ' N in the Western Pacific, when going up the observation solar eclipse for 120 ° 40 ' E), seawater surface temperature is reduced to 1.4 ℃, and its maximum eclipse is 0.68; October 24 nineteen ninety-five, seawater surface temperature was reduced to 1.1 ℃ in the observation of island, Yongxing, Xisha, and its maximum eclipse is 0.8.Solar eclipse is remarkable to the face of land and the sea-surface temperature (SST) effect of falling, and preresearch estimates, a solar eclipse can increase the general circulation total kinetic energy and reach 30%.Therefore, solar eclipse is to form the general circulation ANOMALOUS VARIATIONS, forms the main cause of drought, damage caused by waterlogging evil.

Since 1981, carry out super-long-term weather drought, waterlogging trend prediction with solar eclipse analog year method, also obtain reasonable effect.From the 1981-1989 statistics, the success ratio of its waterlogging district forecast is at 70-80%, and the drought-hit area is relatively poor, has only 40-50%.Because the solar eclipse analog year is being selected on the analog year, can not be definitely similar on time that solar eclipse takes place and area, and the historical climate historical data of analog year institute foundation, differ in various places also details and omissions, so there is certain error in analog year ⁽¹⁾

In April, 1989, the inventor go up to propose in " recent great drought and waterlogging trend prediction meeting (Beijing) ": the atmospheric dynamics fundamental equation is gone into equation etc. by momentum conservation, the mass conservation, the aqueous vapor mass conservation, state equation, hot-fluid and is compiled the differential equation for one group and formed, as following (1)-(5) equation: $\frac{d\stackrel{\&RightArrow;}{v}}{\mathrm{dt}}=-\frac{1}{\mathrm{\&rho;}}\mathrm{\&Delta;}-f\stackrel{\&RightArrow;}{k}\&times;\stackrel{\&RightArrow;}{v}-\stackrel{\&RightArrow;}{g}+\stackrel{\&RightArrow;}{F}----\left(1\right)$ $\frac{\mathrm{d\&rho;}}{\mathrm{dt}}=-\mathrm{\&rho;}(\frac{\&PartialD;u}{\&PartialD;x}+\frac{\&PartialD;v}{\&PartialD;y}+\frac{\&PartialD;w}{\&PartialD;z})----\left(2\right)$ $\frac{\&PartialD;q}{\&PartialD;t}+\stackrel{\&RightArrow;}{v}\mathrm{\&Delta;q}=\frac{1}{\mathrm{\&rho;}}\&CenterDot;s----\left(3\right)$ $\frac{{\mathrm{<figure-callout\; id="1"\; label="P"\; filenames="A9710063300101.png"\; state="\{\{state\}\}">P</figure-callout>}}_1}{{\mathrm{\&rho;}}_1{\mathrm{<figure-callout\; id="1"\; label="T"\; filenames="A9710063300101.png"\; state="\{\{state\}\}">T</figure-callout>}}_1}=\frac{P_2}{{\mathrm{\&rho;}}_2{T}_2}=R----\left(4\right)$ $\mathrm{\&delta;Q}=C\frac{\mathrm{dT}}{\mathrm{dt}}-A.\frac{1}{\mathrm{\&rho;}}\&CenterDot;\frac{\mathrm{dp}}{\mathrm{dt}}----\left(5\right)$

Because it is one group of nonlinear equation, generally there are not analytic solution in it, can only ask its approximate solution with numerical method, after the World War II, heighten in the aerological sounding station, robot calculator comes out, for numerical weather forecast has been created condition,, carry out macroanalysis and primitive equation model do forecast achieving success by robot calculator through the development of the sixties, the seventies, make numerical weather forecast enter a new stage, can do the analog computation of global range.As on a last set of equations, consider the influence of solar eclipse, that is: to general circulation $\frac{d{q}_c}{\mathrm{dt}}=(D_{\mathrm{\&lambda;},\mathrm{\&phi;},}T,g)---\left(6\right)$ In the formula: q _cThermal loss for moon shadow zone, solar eclipse ground lattice point;

D _{λ, φ}Warp, latitude for moon shadow zone, solar eclipse ground lattice point;

T is seeing the food time of lattice point;

G is the totality of lattice point.

Before and after solar eclipse, calculate, if can be with live consistent, then numerical simulation and analog year method can be replenished mutually, and can bigger promotion be arranged to extra long-range weather forecast ⁽²⁾

Extra long-range weather forecast fails to extricate oneself from a plight at present, and key is not promptly considered the influence of solar eclipse to general circulation.

In view of above-mentioned, the object of the invention promptly is the new method that proposes a kind of extra long-range weather forecast.

The present invention is achieved in that the extra long-range weather forecast method of solar eclipse effect, the steps include:

1. do not consider earlier the solar eclipse influence, calculate the rainfall of per unit time with general circulation model;

2. after considering the solar eclipse influence, calculate the rainfall of per unit time once more with general circulation model;

3. above both result is subtracted each other;

4. by adding up in every day, per ten days, every month, promptly obtain the rainfall trend of this day, ten days, the moon.

Advantage of the present invention is: the leading time that can increase weather forecast, owing to be extra long-range weather forecast, can predict drought-hit area, China all parts of the country in flood season and waterlogging district, prevented and fought natural adversities and will play immeasurable effect in various places, its economic results in society are huge, and China every year is on average because of the flood economic loss is 3,000 hundred million yuan, dead 3000 people, if reduce the loss 1/10, also can reach 30,000,000,000 yuan of economic results in society.

Below in conjunction with embodiment the present invention is elaborated.

Fig. 1 is 6-8 month solar eclipse effect numerical simulation drought and waterlogging anomaly figure in 1991;

Fig. 2 is the actual precipitation anomalous percentage figure 6-8 same period month in 1991;

Fig. 3 is the moon shadow area-graph of solar eclipse on May 10 in 1994;

Fig. 4 is 6-8 month solar eclipse effect numerical simulation drought and waterlogging anomaly figure in 1994;

Fig. 5 is the actual precipitation anomalous percentage figure 6-8 same period month in 1994;

Fig. 6 is the moon shadow area-graph of nineteen ninety-five solar eclipse on April 29;

Fig. 7 is nineteen ninety-five 6-8 month solar eclipse effect numerical simulation drought and waterlogging anomaly figure;

Fig. 8 is the actual precipitation anomalous percentage figure nineteen ninety-five 6-8 same period month;

Fig. 9 is 6-8 month solar eclipse effect numerical simulation drought and waterlogging anomaly figure in 1996;

Figure 10 is the actual precipitation anomalous percentage figure 6-8 same period month in 1996.

The atmospheric circulation Mathematical Modeling that adopts in the numerical weather forecast is existing multiple in countries in the world, such as U.S. state In the global wave spectrum Forecast Mode of RSMC of family (NMC), USN's global prediction pattern (FNOC), the Europe The medium-range forecast pattern (ECMWF) of the heart, hemisphere pattern (JMA) and China's atmospheric physics of Japan Meteorological Agency grind Study carefully two atmosphere circulation patterns etc., American National RSMC, Japan Meteorological Agency all adopt spectral model, U.S. State naval, European center and China's atmospheric physics institute all adopt mesh model. Various countries' model is all similar, Datong District is that consideration is consistent with each physical equation in each model; Small difference be the physical process parametrization, Mesh model or spectral model, grid distance and atmospherium are divided upper different. Will such as American National RSMC Atmosphere is divided into 12 layers, and European center is divided into 15 layers, and China is two layers; The grid distance: USN be Δ λ=Δ φ=2.5 °; The center, Europe is Δ λ=Δ φ=1.875 °; China is Δ λ=5 °, Δ φ=4 °.

For formula (6) specifically is applied in the numerical simulation calculation, solar radiation entered atmosphere Before, deduct because the radiation loss that the solar eclipse impact causes.

Take China atmospheric physics institute two atmosphere Circulation Models as example, at solar distance r_EBig pneumatic jack solar radiation flux S_∝For:

S _∝＝ S _∝c( r _E/r _E) ²It is changed into:

S _∝＝ S _∝(1-g)( r _E/r _E) ²Get final product, wherein: S_∝Namely at a r of astronomical unit_EThe solar constant value, be 2793.61g/ days; r_EBe mean Earth-Sun distance, be an astronomical unit; r_ESolar distance for this day; G is this lattice point, is somebody's turn to do The average totality of step-length. Totality is the mark that the moon blocks sun diameter, and totality 0.5 namely blocks sun diameter Half, as calculated, totality 0.5 is with to block solar disc 50% suitable, and totality 0.8 namely blocks solar disc 80%, Therefore (1-g) in the formula is because the impact of solar eclipse, the remaining area that can radiation of the sun. In the model Other computing formula are all constant.

When calculating, obtain earlier the average totality of the every step-length of each lattice point of solar eclipse in the first half of the year (by two atmosphere circulation patterns, lattice point number is 3170, the each nearly 500-1000 of solar eclipse lattice point is seen food), take nineteen ninety-five solar eclipse on April 29 as example, its lattice point totality is calculated as follows:

              

LA＝-95    FA＝18

0 30 0.021 annotate: LA represents longitude ,+be east longitude ,-be west longitude;

1 30 0.068 FI represent latitude ,+be north latitude ,-be south latitude;

The LA=-90 FA=18 time (can change universal time into) when being Beijing,

0 30 0.044 0 30 is 0: 30, and 1 30 is 1: 30;

1 30 0.226 0.226 promptly represent the totality of 1: 30 timesharing,

2 30 0.100 average totalities when can be used as 1-2.

 

LA＝-60 FA＝6

1?30 0.287

2?30 0.728

3?30 0.525

 

Initially use global measured value, can reduce error like this,, can adopt April 27 global measured value to begin calculating, the month of always calculating needs during calculating as April 29 nineteen ninety-five solar eclipse being arranged.Annual solar eclipse is generally secondary, is separated by half a year, and as solar eclipse takes place April nineteen ninety-five, then the solar eclipse second half year is October; Also take place one year 4 times or 5 solar eclipses, these are the polar region partial eclipse, as partial solar eclipse took place 4 times in January 23, June 19, July 19, Dec 14 in 1917 altogether; And for example partial solar eclipse takes place 5 times in nineteen thirty-five altogether in January 5, February 3, June 30, July 30, Dec 25.When calculating in these, as 1917, June, each lattice point of solar eclipse in July should be seen that food time and totality calculate, initial can be from mid-April or start at (because of China south promptly enters flood season general May) by the end of April in times.Have different require also can shift to an earlier date or mistake after.

Numerical simulation calculation is calculated is the rainfall amount of every step-length (promptly 1 hour), secondary is generally calculated in analog computation, does not add the solar eclipse influence for the first time, adds the solar eclipse influence for the second time, the per hour rainfall of calculating is subtracted each other, and adding up in every day, per ten days, every month is the rainfall trend of this day, ten days, the moon.

Embodiment:

Began in 1991 with two layers of circulation pattern of Ins Atmospheric Physics,Academia Sinica (IPA Two LevelAtmospheric General Circulation Model), as disturbing source, entrust atmospheric physics institute Li Chongyin researcher to carry out numerical simulation calculation with solar eclipse by the inventor.These two layers of circulation pattern step-lengths are 1 hour, net point is 4 ° of (latitude) * 5 ° (warps), because of being just calculates, and initial field mean field, the solar eclipse radiation loss is shadow zone mean value and strengthened (comrade of Ji Suaning was afraid of that its influence was little at that time) monthly, the solar eclipse moon shadow zone area adjust a little for ease of input.Begin to calculate from the June that solar eclipse is arranged, calculate September, result of calculation such as Fig. 1.

Fig. 2 is 6-8 month precipitation anomaly figure in 1991, and from Fig. 1, Fig. 2 relatively, mathematical simulation calculation has been reproduced THE LOWER YANGTZE VALLEY Taihu Lake basin heavy rain district through fruit, the center, rain belt is by north a bit, find out that from calculate first dislike rough though calculate, this method and thinking are feasible.

Carried out the second time in 1994 again and calculate, initial with the global measured value of European forecast center.There was solar eclipse on May 10th, 1994 in the Southern Hemisphere, see that the food area is in 81 ° in west longitude noon, near the Chicago,U.S that north latitude is 42 °, month shadow area is about 1.34 hundred million square kilometres, month shadow zone lattice point number is 925, be 29.2% of 3170 of two atmosphere circulation models whole world lattice point number, (referring to Fig. 3), the lattice point solar eclipse sees that food time and the Zhou Keqian of totality trust Henan Province Geographical Study institute pay the researcher and calculate, two layers of circulation analog computation is at the beginning of 5 months, calculate September, each big rivers major flood season of China finishes always.6-8 month solar eclipse effect digital simulation predicted value in 1994 such as Fig. 4.Live rainfall anomalous percentage figure of the 6-8 month in 1994 such as Fig. 5.From Fig. 4, Fig. 5 check analysis, middle reaches, northern the Yellow River, rain belt, North China meet better, Zhujiang River Xijiang River heavy rain district, south is to the west too many, is not inconsistent with live telecast, after by analysis, because of two layers of circulation pattern step-length are 1 hour, and the solar eclipse time only is about 2.5 hours, and the step-length radiation loss adopts the step-length initial value, and the radiation loss model of setting up like this is with live inconsistent, proposition every step-length radiation loss in calculating from now on should adopt the mean value of step-length, with approaching with the actual emanations loss model.

Nineteen ninety-five is carried out analog computation for the third time.Once solar eclipse on April 29 nineteen ninety-five in Central America, noon, the maximum phase of an eclipse was in the many regions following the line of the sea of ell melon, Central America, the about 100,000,000 square meter kilometers of solar eclipse moon shadow area, and lattice point number has 531 in month shadow zone, than 1994 925 for lacking, its former because month shadow area is than 1994 young 0.33 hundred million square kilometre; Secondly moon nineteen ninety-five, the shadow zone was mainly across near the equator, and the lattice point area is big, so lattice point decreased number (referring to Fig. 6).The nineteen ninety-five analog computation is since April, and initial field adopts European forecast center whole world measured value, and step-length solar eclipse radiation loss is visited the mean value with step-length, is calculated to September from April nineteen ninety-five.Nineteen ninety-five 6-8 month solar eclipse effect mathematical simulation rainfall trend prediction value as shown in Figure 7.Nineteen ninety-five 6-8 month rainfall anomalous percentage figure as shown in Figure 8, from comparative analysis, northern rain belt such as northeast, North China, Xinjiang are all realistic; Henan, Guanzhong drought-hit area, forecast area are also with live consistent; Does not calculate rain belt, Hubei and Hunan Provinces (Poyang Lake, Dongting Lake), and calculated value is a shadow, and reality is rainy center.

1996 adopt Nanjing University's atmospheric science is nine layers of spectral model of general circulation, entrusting Nanjing University's atmospheric science is that Jiang Dunchun pays professor calculating, solar eclipse calculating is entrusted Purple Mountain Observatory to go through calculation chamber He Yu state and is paid the researcher, the spectral model grid is thing 48 points, north-south 40 points, the grid distance is 4.5 (latitude) * 7.5 (warp).On April 17th, 1996, there was partial eclipse the Antarctic realm, calculated since April, finished its 6-8 month rainfall trend prediction value such as Fig. 9 to September.In June, 1996-rainfall in August anomaly such as Figure 10, to the west of the river bend and the rainy district of THE LOWER YANGTZE VALLEY forecasts accurately; The rainy district in North China and middle reaches, the Changjiang river does not forecast, and forecast is shadow.

Can find out from above calculated examples:

1. from 1991,1994,1995,1,996 four (mainly being 1994-1996 3 years) with solar eclipse as disturbing source, single-factor is carried out the general circulation mathematical simulation calculation, it is inconsistent with there not being the rainfall amount of solar eclipse that solar eclipse is arranged, compare with live telecast at 1994-1995 and rainfall trend (having the solar eclipse rainfall to subtract does not have the solar eclipse rainfall), northern China (north latitude is more than 30 °) is consistent basically, the south is poor slightly, this explanation solar eclipse is to influence the general circulation campaign, because rainfall trend and live telecast meet, further confirmed the argumentation of the inventor in " opinion solar eclipse and bloods and droughts relation " book: solar eclipse is to influence the general circulation campaign, the major reason of formation bloods and droughts.

From 1994, nineteen ninety-five mathematical simulation calculation result, northernly calculate more realisticly than the south, be believable as the super-long-term weather tendency forecast.The result is relatively poor in the south, and this may be very much not one relevant with two layers of circulation pattern grid area.Two layers of circulation pattern grid of atmosphere are 4 ° of (latitude) * 5 ° (warps), distinguishing each grid area under the line is 240000 square kilometres, and the polar region only has 12000 square kilometres, and both differ 20 times, it is low that its computational accuracy can form high south, north naturally, and this needs further research to improve.

3.1996 nine layers of spectral model of year atmospheric science system of employing Nanjing University, from result of calculation and live contrast, China north and south drought and waterlogging district, have meet live, have not meet lively, stable not as two layers of circulation pattern of atmosphere, resolution is clear not as two layers of circulation pattern, spectral model is more excellent on calculating, and its pattern be it seems not as two layers of circulation pattern.This is still waiting further check.

List of references:

(1). Zhao Dexiu, Zhao Wentong write: the relation of opinion solar eclipse and bloods and droughts, publishing house of Northwestern Polytechnical University, 1992.

(2). Zhao Dexiu: with the recent great drought and waterlogging in " solar eclipse effect " analog year method prediction whole nation.THE GEOPHYSICAL SOCIETY OF CHINA IN can natural disaster be predicted the pre-collection of thesis of Professional Committee's natural disaster, 1989.

(3).Zeng?Qing-Cun?etal：Documentation?Of?IPA?Two?Level?AtmosphericGeneral?Circulation?Model，1989。

(4). work such as Cai Qingyan: numerical weather forecast, connection is through publishing company, 1990.

(5). Zhang Yuling etc. write: numerical weather forecast, Science Press, 1987.

Claims (1)

1. the extra long-range weather forecast method of a solar eclipse effect the steps include:

1) do not consider earlier the solar eclipse influence, calculate the rainfall of per unit time with general circulation model;

2) after the consideration solar eclipse influence, calculate the rainfall of per unit time once more with general circulation model;

3) above both result is subtracted each other;

4), promptly obtain the rainfall trend of this day, ten days, the moon by adding up in every day, per ten days, every month.

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