CN116626782A - Double-index monitoring method for south sea summer monsoon based on wind cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite - Google Patents
Double-index monitoring method for south sea summer monsoon based on wind cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application discloses a method for monitoring double indexes of south sea and summer monsoon based on a polar orbit meteorological satellite of a wind cloud, which comprises the steps of obtaining 850hPa atmospheric temperature and specific humidity through a VASS of a FY-3D vertical detection instrument set of the polar orbit meteorological satellite, and calculating to obtain an artificial equivalent temperature index of 850 hPa; the method comprises the steps of obtaining the ocean surface wind speed and the wind direction through wind field data inverted by a wind field measuring radar winddRAD of a polar orbit meteorological satellite FY-3E, and calculating an average latitudinal wind index; the accuracy of monitoring the process of the explosion of the south sea summer monsoon with the double index is verified by evaluating the accuracy of the FY-3D/VASS temperature and specific humidity relative to ERA5 and the accuracy evaluation index of the FY-3E/windRAD ocean surface wind relative to MetOp-C/ASCAT. According to the application, the FY-3D calculation is utilized to calculate the pseudo-moderate temperature and the FY-3E ocean surface wind double-index monitoring south sea summer monsoon display, and the double-index well monitors the temperature and humidity field and wind field conversion in the 2022 south sea summer monsoon outbreak process, so that the application capability of the two types of satellite data in the south sea summer monsoon climate monitoring is verified.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of meteorological data monitoring and forecasting, in particular to a method for monitoring double indexes of a south sea and summer monsoon based on a weather satellite in a polar orbit of a wind cloud.
Background
Asia and australia are typical monsoon areas, forming sub-australia monsoon systems, and an outbreak of summer monsoon predicts a transition of atmospheric circulation from winter to summer. Asian monsoon is divided into tropical monsoon and subtropical monsoon, and outbreaks of tropical monsoon generally go through three stages, generally asian monsoon is established first in the south of the singla bay, then goes through the mid-south peninsula to the south-sea monsoon region in mid-5 month, and finally south-asian monsoon outbreaks. The explosion of the south China sea summer monsoon indicates that the east Asia subtropical summer monsoon starts to establish a main rainy season, and the explosion of the south China sea summer monsoon has important indication significance for Chinese climate abnormality.
At present, most of conventional weather in the south China sea summer monsoon area is defined by weather numerical mode data, the accuracy is affected by mode performance, and deviation can occur in live observation. Secondly, the satellite cloud wind guiding and TBB double indexes applied in the current business are real observations of high-level wind fields and convection activities in the south China sea summer monsoon area, and can well reflect the activity characteristics of the monsoon, but the cloud wind guiding only provides the high-level wind direction conversion characteristics of the convection layer, the low-level wind direction conversion characteristics of the convection layer cannot be obtained, and the low-level wind field conversion of the convection layer is particularly important in the process of the outbreak of the south China sea summer monsoon. The index of the lower layer of the troposphere is used for monitoring the summer monsoon in the south China sea, and no good solution is available at present.
Disclosure of Invention
The application aims to provide a method for monitoring double indexes of a south sea and summer monsoon based on a wind-cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite, which aims to solve the actual problems in the prior art.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the application provides a method for monitoring double indexes of a south sea and summer monsoon wind based on a wind-cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite, which mainly comprises the following steps:
s1, obtaining 850hPa atmospheric temperature and specific humidity through a polar orbit meteorological satellite FY-3D vertical detection instrument set VASS, processing into daily average data, and calculating to obtain an artificial equivalent temperature index of 850 hPa;
s2, acquiring ocean surface wind field data through wind field measurement radars windRAD of polar orbit meteorological satellites FY-3E, processing the ocean surface wind field data into daily average data to obtain ocean surface wind speed and wind direction, and obtaining average latitudinal wind indexes;
s3, evaluating the accuracy of FY-3D/VASS temperature and specific humidity relative to ERA5 data;
s4, evaluating the precision of FY-3E/windRAD ocean surface wind relative to the Metop-C/ASCAT data;
and S5, verifying the accuracy of monitoring the process of the south China sea summer monsoon burst by using the double indexes of S1 and S2 according to the evaluation results of S3 and S4.
Further, the regions of the summer monsoon in the south China sea are (10 DEG N-20 DEG N;110 DEG E-120 DEG E).
Further, the daily average data requires spatial lattice matching in the summer season of south China sea.
Further, the evaluation index calculation formula of the precision described in S3 and S4 is:
wherein Y is a variable to be inspected, X is a variable of an inspection reference value, n is a matching sample size,mean value of the variables examined for n samples, +.>The mean value of the reference variable is checked for n samples.
Further, in S3, FY-3D/VASS and ERA5 are compared, and the temporary phase temperature distribution is consistent with the season pushing trend, so that the weather satellite can monitor the index change characteristics of the atmospheric temperature and humidity in the process of the outbreak of the summer monsoon in the south China sea.
Further, in S4, FY-3E/windRAD and Metop-C/ASCAT are compared, the distribution of the ocean surface wind flow field is consistent, and the position and the intensity of a large wind speed area are close, so that the wind field conversion characteristics of the wind cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite in the process of the storm in summer of the south China sea can be monitored.
Further, the accuracy of S1 and S2 double-index monitoring of the process of the explosion of the south China sea summer monsoon and the explosion time of the south China sea summer monsoon issued by the national climate center service are compared and verified.
Further, the average FY-3D false phase temperature and FY-3E ocean surface wind distribution display of the polar orbiting meteorological satellites when global coverage is monitored can also be used for monitoring the over-equatorial airflow, warm and humid water vapor delivery, low pressure or cyclone in the south Indian ocean going zone, the vortex or cyclone storm of the Menghan bay burst and the triggering effect of a weather scale system on the summer monsoon burst, which are important indicators established for the Asian monsoon before the south China summer monsoon burst.
Compared with the prior art, the application has the following advantages and beneficial effects:
(1) And the temperature and humidity inverted by the FY-3 polar orbit meteorological satellite and the ocean surface wind (low-layer wind) are utilized to monitor the characteristics of the activities of the summer monsoon in the south China sea, so that the monitoring of different meteorological elements in the process of the activities of the summer monsoon in the south China sea is realized. According to the application, on the basis of satellite remote sensing cloud wind guiding and TBB double-index monitoring of the activities of the summer monsoon in the south China sea, the indexes of the troposphere low-layer ocean surface wind field and the temperature and humidity indexes are increased, and the comprehensive judgment of the intensity information of the explosion and the activities of the summer monsoon is realized.
(2) The observation live data of the FY-3 satellite is firstly monitored by summer monsoon, the assessment of FY-3E ocean surface wind is added, the inversion products of European meteorological satellite similar instruments are selected as the inspection source, and the influence of the considered wind speed daily variation characteristics on the inspection result is added.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the application and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments of the application and together with the description serve to explain the application and do not constitute a limitation on the application. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for monitoring double indexes of a south China sea and summer monsoon wind based on a wind cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite, which is provided by an embodiment of the application;
FIG. 2 is a graph showing temperature scatter densities and evaluation indexes of FY-3D/VASS and ERA5850hPa in the summer season of south China sea of 2022, 4,5 and 6 months provided by the embodiment of the application;
FIG. 3 is a graph of density and evaluation index of the specific wet scattering points of FY-3D/VASS and ERA5850hPa in the 4-6 month south China sea and summer season wind area of 2022 provided by the embodiment of the application;
FIG. 4 is a schematic illustration of the pseudo-equivalent temperatures of FY-3D/VASS and ERA5850hPa for 4-6 months in 2022 provided by the embodiments of the present application;
FIG. 5 is a scatter plot of FY-3E/windRAD and MetOp-C/ASCAT ocean surface wind u in a 4-6 month 4-6 year south China sea season wind area provided by an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 6 is a scatter plot of FY-3E/windRAD and MetOp-C/ASCAT ocean surface wind v in a 4-6 month south China sea summer season wind area 2022 provided by an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 7 is a scatter plot of wind speeds for the wind areas FY-3E/windRAD and MetOp-C/ASCAT ocean surface provided by the embodiment of the application in the 4-6 month south China sea season wind area 2022;
FIG. 8 is a graph of average ocean surface wind and wind speed for 2022, 4-6 months FY-3E/windRAD and MetOp-C/ASCAT months provided by an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 9 is a graph of the average ocean surface wind speed bias for 2022, 4-6 months FY-3E/windRAD and MetOp-C/ASCAT months provided by the example of the present application;
FIG. 10 shows average pseudo-equivalent temperatures (a) of 2022, 3, 1, 9, 30, south China sea, summer season wind areas of average 850hPa FY-3D/VASS and ERA5, average weft wind (b) of FY-3E/WindRAD, metOp-C/ASCAT ocean surface wind and ERA 5.
The achievement of the objects, functional features and advantages of the present application will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings, in conjunction with the embodiments.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present application more apparent, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present application, but not all embodiments of the present application. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the application without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the application.
The explosion process of the Asian tropical summer monsoon occurs on the ocean surface with scarce conventional detection data, satellites can provide full-area coverage of atmospheric parameters, cloud parameters, precipitation and other live information for the summer monsoon activity monitoring, and in the past, the satellite is used for monitoring parameters such as cloud top bright temperature, precipitation and cloud wind guiding, which are mainly applied to the south China sea summer monsoon, so that application research is carried out. The vertical detection instrument carried by the wind cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite can effectively observe the three-dimensional temperature and humidity of the atmosphere under all-weather conditions, plays an important role in extreme weather event monitoring, and has great potential in application of the observed data in south China sea summer monsoon monitoring. The wind field measuring radar carried by the FY-3E meteorological satellite emitted in 2021 can observe a global ocean surface wind field, and the previous data analysis shows that compared with the 850hPa wind field, the change of ocean surface wind and near ground wind can better characterize the characteristics of all the monsoon systems in Asia, so that the embodiment of the application can also evaluate the application capability of the FY-3E ocean surface wind in the monitoring of the summer monsoon in south China. And the monitoring application capacity of the south sea summer monsoon based on the wind cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite is verified through double indexes. The flow chart is shown in figure 1.
FY-3D weather satellites were launched on day 15 of 11 2017, and temperature and humidity data [31-34] inverted using a wind cloud three D star atmospheric vertical detection system (Vertical Atmospheric Sounding System, FY-3D/VASS) instrument set, which included three instruments, 4 channel microwave thermometers (MicroWave Humidity Sounder, MWHS), 5 channel microwave thermometers (MicroWave Temperature Sounder, MWTS) and 26 channel infrared spectrometers (InfraRed Atmospheric Sounder, IRAS), respectively. The coverage of VASS temperature and humidity data is global, the space resolution of the space under the satellite is 15km, 43 barometric layers are arranged from 1013.25hPa on the ground to 0.1hPa on the high altitude in the vertical direction, and 839.95hPa is selected as the barometric layer in the embodiment of the application. The stable and reliable FY-3D/VASS temperature and humidity inversion data time began at month 4 of 2019.
FY-3E weather satellite was successfully launched in 2021, 7 months, and was also the first civil morning and evening orbital weather satellite worldwide. The satellite is loaded with 11 sets of remote sensing instruments, 3 sets of brand new development, 7 sets of upgrading and reconstruction and 1 set of business inheritance [35,37]. The FY-3E meteorological satellite realizes the active and passive combined ocean surface wind field detection capability, and a double-frequency wind field measurement radar is newly added, so that the active remote sensing instrument firstly loaded on the wind cloud series meteorological satellite can provide high-precision measurement information of the global ocean surface wind field including wind speed and wind direction. Wind field measurement radars acquire wind field information including wind speed and wind direction from the global ocean surface through backscatter measurements of the earth's system. The wind field measurement radar is a double-frequency and dual-polarized conical scanning radar, high-precision wind field measurement is realized through on-board internal calibration and on-orbit active external calibration, and the wind field measurement radar comprises two frequencies, a C wave band (5.3 GHz) and a Ku wave band (13.265 GHz), four antennas and HH and VV. Each pixel emits light at a plurality of viewing angles. The minimum detectable wind speed is 3m/s. According to the embodiment of the application, a wind field is selected to measure radar ocean surface wind products, the products are daily data, the daily data are divided into a rail lifting (dusk) and a rail lowering (early morning), the data are equal longitude and latitude grid point data (0.25 degrees multiplied by 0.25 degrees), the coverage area is global ocean surface, and daily average data are processed for daily rail lifting and rail lowering data. The time for observing the region of the south sea summer monsoon was around dusk 10:00 (UTC) and around 22:00 in the early morning.
The south sea summer monsoon burst should satisfy the following three conditions:
1) The time occurs 25 days later;
2) The average wind latitude of the ocean surface in the south China sea summer monsoon monitoring area is greater than zero and at least lasts for 2 days (including 2 days)
3) The average weather 850hPa pseudo equivalent temperature of the south China sea summer season wind monitoring area is more than or equal to 340K and at least lasts for 2 days (including 2 days), and most of the atmosphere in the south China sea summer season wind monitoring area stably shows high temperature and high humidity characteristics.
Two data sources for comparative analysis are described in the examples:
in the embodiment of the application, the temperature, humidity and wind field data adopted by ERA5 re-analysis data are all European medium term weather forecast centers (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECWMF) and an analysis data set (ERA 5) which integrates mode and global observation data, the horizontal spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (longitude) x 0.25 degrees (latitude), the time resolution is 1h, daily average data are processed in the embodiment of the application, and the air pressure layer is 850hPa.
The ASCAT scatterometer used in the embodiments of the present application is one of the instruments that are transmitted by the European Space Agency (ESA) and carried by the meteorological service (metap) polar satellites operated by the european union meteorological satellite organization (EUMETSAT). Metop-C was deduced on 7 th 11 th 2018, and a 10m high horizontal stress equivalent wind vector, including wind speed and direction. Wind speed is in meters per second. Wind speeds in the range of 0-50 meters per second, but wind speeds exceeding 25 meters per second are generally less reliable. The standard deviation precision of wind components is better than 2m/s, and the wind speed deviation is less than 0.5m/s. The spatial resolution is about 12.5km, covering twice a day. The data were processed in the examples of the present application to daily average 0.25 x 0.25 resolution. The time for observing the south sea summer monsoon area is around 02:00 am (UTC) and around 14:00 at night.
The embodiment of the application uses the national climate center service south China sea summer monsoon monitoring index to carry out application evaluation, including 850hPa false equivalent temperature index and ocean surface weft wind index. The pseudo-equivalent temperature is calculated as:
e＝prs×q/(0.62197+q)
tlcl＝55.0+2840.0/(3.5×logT-loge-4.805)
θ＝T×(1000/prs) 0.2854×(1.0-0.28×q)
wherein θ se For an assumed phase temperature, θ is the phase temperature, prs=850 hpa, t is the temperature (unit: K), and q is the specific humidity (unit kg/kg). The south China sea summer monsoon area is (10 DEG N-20 DEG N;110 DEG E-120 DEG E), the south China sea summer monsoon temporary equivalent temperature index is the area average 850hPa temporary equivalent temperature, and the south China sea summer monsoon wind field index is the area average ocean face weft average.
The following evaluation index calculation formulas are used for average deviation (MB), average absolute error (MAE), root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Correlation Coefficient (CC):
wherein Y is a variable to be inspected, X is a variable of an inspection reference value, n is a matching sample size,mean value of the variables examined for n samples, +.>The mean value of the reference variable is checked for n samples.
Firstly, the temperature and humidity evaluation of the FY-3D/VASS is carried out in the embodiment, and the time period in the embodiment is selected to be 2022, 4 months, 1 month and 6 months and 30 days, so that the whole process of 2022, namely the outbreak of the south China sea and the summer monsoon is covered. The 850hPa atmospheric temperature and specific humidity are obtained through a polar orbit meteorological satellite FY-3D vertical detection instrument set VASS, daily average data are processed, and an artificial equivalent temperature index of 850hPa is calculated.
And then obtaining 850hPa FY-3D/VASS temperature and ERA5 temperature scatter density map of 2022 years 4,5 months and 6 months according to the evaluation index calculation formula, wherein the evaluation index display (figure 2) shows that the matching sample size of 4,5 months and 6 months is about 8 ten thousand, and the maximum matching sample size of 5 months is 8.6 ten thousand. The average deviation and the average absolute error are minimum in 4 months, are respectively-0.39,1.02 ℃, and the maximum correlation coefficient is 0.46. The average deviation for 5 months was-0.73, the absolute average deviation was 1.11℃and the root mean square error was 1.55℃minimum. The 6 month phase relationship number is 0.27 at minimum. Overall, the average distribution over 4-6 months showed that samples with abnormally high or low FY-3D/VASS 850hPa temperatures, with average 0.6 ℃ lower, average absolute deviation of 1.1 ℃ and root mean square error of 1.6 ℃.
The density map and evaluation index of the specific humidity and ERA5 specific humidity scattered points of 850hPa FY-3D/VASS of 2022, 5 and 6 months show (figure 3), the specific humidity correlation coefficient and the scattered point distribution have temperature deviation, and samples with larger and smaller specific humidity abnormality appear in 4-6 months and the specific humidity is lower as a whole. The correlation coefficients are smaller in both 5 months and 6 months, the high scattered point density is distributed below the trend line, and the average deviation in 6 months is relatively smaller to be-0.15 g/kg. Average 4-6 months showed an average deviation of-0.53 g/kg, an average absolute error of 2.25g/kg, and a root mean square error of 2.97g/kg.
The FY-3D/VASS 850hPa temperature and the average ratio ERA5 of 4-6 months in the summer season of the south China sea are lower than those of the whole ERA5, and the 850hPa pseudo equivalent temperature distribution calculated by the formula is utilized by the FY-3D/VASS temperature and the humidity, so that the research shows that the 850hPa area average pseudo equivalent temperature 340K can be used as the explosion index of the summer season of the south China sea. Thus the FY-3D/VASS and ERA5850hPa pseudo-equivalent temperature profiles were analyzed in comparison (FIG. 4). It can be seen that the satellite inversion pseudonymous phase temperature is slightly lower by 1-2K during the 4-6 months of the 2022 south sea summer monsoon burst. Before the 4-month south China sea summer monsoon burst, the pseudo equivalent temperature of the south China sea lower monsoon area is lower than 340K, and the 5-month pseudo equivalent temperature is higher than 340K, so that the south China sea summer monsoon area and the Bengal bay are controlled, and the north of the south China sea lower monsoon area is further pushed to the south of the river, the south of the south China, and the like. The FY-3D/VASS and ERA5 are in the same temporary temperature distribution and season advancing trend, and the change characteristics of the atmospheric temperature and humidity index in the process of the explosion of the summer monsoon in south China sea can be monitored to a certain extent.
The method for monitoring FY-3E ocean surface wind assessment in the summer season wind in the south China sea comprises the following steps:
the FY-3E wind field measuring radar is an active remote sensing instrument firstly loaded on a wind cloud series meteorological satellite, an inverted ocean surface wind field of the active remote sensing instrument starts to form a stable business product from the 3 rd month 1 st 2022, and in order to analyze the applicability of the active remote sensing instrument in the south China sea summer monsoon monitoring, the data and an ASCAT inverted ocean surface wind field of EUMEASAT carried on a metal-C satellite are subjected to comparison analysis. The time period is selected from 2022, 4 months, 1 month, 6 months and 30 months, and covers the whole process of the summer monsoon burst of 2022. Because the transit time of two satellites is different, the time of scanning through the summer season in the south China sea is respectively morning/evening (FY-3E, about 22:00 and 10:00) and morning/night (about metal-C, 02:00 and 14:00), so that daily average data are processed for evaluation, and the same daily average data are subjected to space lattice point matching in the summer season in the south China sea.
In the south sea summer monsoon monitoring, not only the wind speed magnitude but also the warp direction wind v and weft direction wind u components are concerned, because these 3 quantities are checked and evaluated respectively, and the monthly matching samples are about 2 ten thousand for 4-6 months in 2022. The latitudinal wind u evaluation shows (fig. 5), according to the evaluation calculation formula, the 4 and 5 month phase relation numbers are respectively 0.66 and 0.62,6 month correlation coefficients are relatively low, and 0.52,4 month scattered point high-density areas are distributed between 0 and 5m/s, which indicates that the south sea summer season wind area is mainly the eastern wind, the 5 month scattered point high-density areas are distributed between-5 and 5m/s, and the 6 month phase relation numbers are converted into-5 to 0m/s, so that the conversion of the latitudinal wind before and after the south sea summer season wind burst is represented. The average deviation of the weft wind is about-0.58 m/s in 2022 and 4-6 months, the average absolute error is about 2.29m/s, the root mean square error is about 3.01m/s, and the average correlation coefficient is 0.70. The evaluation of the wind v shows that the correlation coefficient is above 0.75 in 4-6 months, the average correlation coefficient is 0.85, and the average deviation is positive, which shows that the southern wind component is slightly stronger relative to MetOp-C/ASCAT, wherein the average deviation is the largest in 6 months. The absolute average deviation and the root mean square error difference of the wind v are both smaller than Yu Wei, the difference before and after the summer monsoon burst is smaller, the average deviation is 0.52m/s in 4-6 months, the average absolute error is 2.01m/s, and the average root mean square error is 2.70m/s. Wind speed evaluation showed (FIG. 7) that the maximum correlation coefficient for 4 months was 0.87,4-6 months, the average correlation coefficient was 0.79, the average deviation was about-0.46 m/s, the absolute deviation was 1.56m/s, and the root mean square error was about 2.00 m/s.
From the average distribution of 4-6 months of 2022 (FIG. 8), the FY-3E/windRAD and MetOp-C/ASCAT ocean surface wind flow fields are distributed uniformly, and the position and the intensity of a high wind speed area are close. Before 4 months of the explosion of the Asia summer monsoon, the south China sea summer monsoon area is northeast wind, the northeast part of the south China sea and the Philippines have larger wind speeds at the eastern ocean surface, and the FY-3E wind speed is slightly weaker by about 1m/s. At this time, the equatorial airflow along the eastern africa was not established yet, arabic is anti-cyclone controlled, and india starts to develop southwest wind in the southwest face, extending all the way to the southwest of the singla bay. In the process of sequential explosion of Asia summer monument, the air flow is strong beyond the equator on the eastern ocean surface of Africa, and the air flow is converted into the Western wind or southwest wind in the 0-10N latitude zone until the air flow is extended to the middle and south peninsula and the north south sea, and the explosion of the Montguary and the south sea summer monument is carried out, and the distribution of the large-value wind speed area can show that the FY-3E wind speed is slightly smaller by about 1m/s. The equatorial air flow is further enhanced after 6 months, the maximum wind speed in the concerned region appears in the southwest of Arabian sea and is more than 11m/s, and the summer season wind regions of Asia tropical zone are controlled by the West wind and the southwest wind.
The daily average pseudo equivalent temperature south sea summer monsoon zone monsoon index calculated using FY-3D and ERA5 data is shown (fig. 10 a): the average false equivalent temperature of the ERA5 area is slightly larger than that of the FY-3D whole, the average false equivalent temperature of the ERA5 area is obviously larger from the middle ten days of 3 months to the middle ten days of 4 months, and the average false equivalent temperature of the ERA5 area in the middle ten days of 3 months exceeds 340K. And starting at 28 days of 4 months, except for 11 and 12 days of 5 months, the pseudo equivalent temperature of ERA5 is more than 340K, and one of the south China sea summer monsoon burst indexes is met. The average false phase temperature of the FY-3D area starts to be higher than 340K in the same way for 4 months and 28 days, but falls below 340K after 5 months and 1 day, the fluctuation occurs in the 5 months and 8-9 days, and the average false phase temperature starts to be more stably maintained above or near 340K in the vicinity of 17 days.
The monitoring index of the national climate center south China sea summer monsoon wind is (10-20N; 110-120E) area average 850hPa weft wind u. FIG. 10b is a 2022 3 month 1 day-9 month 30 day (10-20N; 110-120E) area average latitudinal wind time series, and it can be seen that FY-3E/WindRAD and MetOp-C/ASCAT ocean surface wind extraction index trend is basically constant, and the south sea summer monsoon burst time is one day later than ERA5 (5 months 10 days). The wind direction conversion of weft direction in the process of the wind burst of the summer season of the south China sea in 2022 is well monitored.
One embodiment also verifies the ability of FY-3 meteorological satellite 2022 to evolve atmospheric parameters before and after a summer burst in the south China sea.
The national climate center monitors the circulation of the east Asia summer monsoon, which shows that the south sea summer monsoon will burst in 5 months 3, slightly earlier than the perennial (5 months 4 th), and the intensity approaches perennial to weaker (note: 5 days is taken as a climate, for example, 5 months 3 is 5 months 11-15 days http:// cmdp. Ncc-cma. Net/clamp/monson. Php). The temperature and humidity index and the wind field index of the south China sea summer monsoon are monitored by the FY-3 meteorological satellite, and the south China sea summer monsoon burst is obtained at the 3 rd time of 5 th month in 2022, and the atmospheric parameter characteristics before and after the south China sea summer monsoon burst and the burst process are analyzed by the FY-3 meteorological satellite.
Studies have shown that the explosive vortex or cyclone storm in the Bengale bay triggers a south-ocean-summer monsoon burst, and before 2022 south-ocean-summer monsoon burst, the Bengale bay is affected by the North Indian ocean cyclone storm 'assailant' (English: severe Cyclonic Storm Asani, indian weather agency: BOB 03, the United typhoon alarm center: 02B, the national weather center standard translation name: assailant), 5 months 5 days of Mongale bay tropical disturbance generation, 8 days of gas cyclone storm numbering 5 months, and then gradually moves in the northwest direction, lands on Ind at 11 months, and is gradually weakened to dissipate, and the maximum intensity reaches the primary tropical cyclone intensity identified by the United typhoon alarm center and the strong cyclone storm intensity identified by the Indian weather agency and the central gas platform. "assania" brings strong weather to india and bangladesh, causing at least 3 deaths, but fails to significantly alleviate the extreme high temperatures in south asia.
Tropical cyclone activity also occurs in the south indian ocean before the outbreak of the summer monsoon in the south sea, 5 months and 5 days, and a low air pressure is formed in the middle of the indian ocean. The system developed gradually and was named as calim by regional specialty weather center (RSMC) wangin island on day 7 of 5 months. The calimer moves in the southeast direction and enters australian area on the 5 month 8 day week and is further enhanced on the 5 month 8 day 0600 (UTC) to level 2, speed per hour 95 km/h. The calimer maintains class 2 intensity at day 5, 9, because the system steadily moves south. For 5 months and 10 days, the Carim reached a peak intensity of 60 knots (110 km/h), slightly below grade 3 intensity. By the evening, the calimer begins to weaken as the environment becomes unfavorable. Earlier in 5 months 11 days, the carbomer transitioned to a subtropical system, but still continued to produce storm and high winds, which benefited from the strong pressure gradient between the system and the south high pressure ridge.
The combined influence of the cyclone Karim of the tropical ocean in south India and the cyclone Asani of the cyclone North India increases the strength of the Western ocean surface wind between the two cyclones, and the partial area of the wind speed of the south ocean surface of the Bengal bay is more than 10m/s, so that the wind direction of the south ocean in later summer is facilitated. The weather average FY-3D temporary temperature and FY-3E ocean surface wind distribution before and after the outbreak of the summer monsoon in the south China sea show that: in the 1 st day of 5 months, the air flow is established beyond the equator on the eastern ocean surface of Africa, the ocean is the partial west wind in the range of 0-5N, the partial south wind appears in the western part of Bengale, the south sea is controlled by the northeast wind or the partial east wind, the north wind force of the south sea is larger, the equator exists in the tropical region near the south 90-100E, and the low-pressure annular flow is favorable for enhancing the partial west wind on the north side; 5 months at 2, most typically characterized by the Bengale bay and its southern hemisphere ocean surfaces forming two low voltage systems, affecting Bengale bay as cyclone storm "assailed by" assailed ", south sea and mid-south peninsula using southern ocean surface as eastern wind to southeast wind, merging into cyclone storm; the cyclone storm of the Bengal bay at 3 th month of 5 is in login and extinction, and the most obvious characteristic is that the pseudo-equivalent temperature of the Indian peninsula, bengal bay and the mid-south peninsula is increased, and the suction effect of the more equatorial air flow by the 'assailo' is enhanced compared with the suction effect of the No. 2 rd month of 5, so that the Bengal bay is controlled by southwest wind and is expanded to the summer season of south China eastern sea; at 4 th month of 5 months, the south of the summer region of south China sea is continuously controlled by southwest wind, the north is affected by cold air, northeast wind appears, and most regions are in temporary temperature higher than 340K.
The Monglar Bay storm has suction effect on the air flow crossing the equator, so that the western wind on the surface of the north tropical ocean at the equator is enhanced, and after the cyclone storm weakens and disappears, the strong southwest monsoon passes over the mid-south peninsula to reach the south sea, and the southwest monsoon burst is caused. Although north-northeast wind appears in north-south ocean at 5 months 4 under the influence of cool air, the strong southwest wind in north india makes the entire southwest-sea summer season wind area controlled by stable southwest wind after cool air. At 5 months, a temporary temperature higher than 340K representing a warm air bolus is pushed to areas of south China and south China, the whole south sea area is affected by southwest summer monsoon, southwest and northeast wind meet at the ocean surface near south of Taiwan, at 6 months, the south sea is continuously controlled by southwest summer monsoon, and the warm air bolus is pushed to the Yangtze river basin further north.
According to the embodiment of the application, FY-3D/VASS temperature and humidity and FY-3E/windRad ocean surface wind data application evaluation are carried out aiming at a specific area and a specific time, the difference between the wind cloud satellite inversion atmospheric parameters and other data is analyzed, the service monitoring south China sea summer monsoon temperature and humidity index and wind field index are evaluated, and the 2022 south China sea summer monsoon explosion process is analyzed.
In the embodiment, the average evaluation of FY-3D/VASS 850hPa temperature and specific humidity and ERA5 compared with the southern sea summer season wind region for 4-6 months shows that the average deviation of the temperature is-0.6 ℃, the average absolute deviation is 1.1 ℃ and the root mean square error is 1.6 ℃; the average deviation of specific humidity is-0.53 g/kg, the average absolute error is 2.25g/kg, and the root mean square error is 2.97g/kg. The calculated pseudo-equivalent temperature using FY-3D/VASS temperature and specific humidity was slightly lower by 1-2K during the 4-6 months of the 2022 south America monsoon burst. The distribution trend is consistent with the season advancing trend, and the change characteristic of the atmospheric temperature and humidity index in the process of the outbreak of the summer monsoon in the south China sea can be monitored.
In the embodiment, the average evaluation of FY-3E/windRAD ocean surface wind and the Metop-C/ASCAT ocean surface wind in the south sea summer season wind area for 4-6 months shows that the average deviation of weft wind in 2022 years for 4-6 months is about negative, the average deviation of warp wind is positive, the average correlation coefficient of wind speed in 4-6 months is 0.79, the average deviation is about-0.46 m/s, the absolute deviation is 1.56m/s, and the root mean square error is about 2.00 m/s. FY-3E/windRAD and MetOp-C/ASCAT ocean surface wind flow fields are distributed consistently, and the position and the intensity of a high wind speed area are close. As can be seen from the 4-6 month average deviation level distribution, the sea area of the Asia summer monsoon region comprises the fact that the equator is negative by the whole of the western average deviation of the south tropical Indian ocean and the north west Pacific ocean, and part of reasons are related to systematic deviation caused by the daily variation of the average wind speeds of the two satellites in transit time.
In the embodiment, the FY-3D calculation is utilized to calculate the false moderate temperature and the FY-3E ocean surface wind double indexes are used for monitoring the display of the south China sea summer monsoon, the double indexes are used for monitoring the temperature and humidity field and wind field conversion in the 2022 south China sea summer monsoon burst process, the accuracy is basically consistent with the south China sea summer monsoon burst time issued by the national climate center service, and the accuracy is 5 months and 3 days. In the early stage of the outbreak of the summer monsoon in the south China, 5 months, the cyclone Karim of the ocean in the south China and the Azakia storm in the ocean in the North China are used for sucking the Western wind near the equator, so that the Western wind on the ocean surface in the North China is enhanced at the equator, and after the cyclone storm weakens and dies, the strong southwest monsoon passes over the mid-south peninsula to reach the south China, and the summer monsoon in the south China is caused to outbreak.
According to the embodiment of the application, based on the multi-instrument vertical detection capability of the weather satellite in the polar orbit of the wind cloud, the characteristic monitoring of the atmospheric temperature and humidity before and after the explosion of the summer monsoon in the south China is carried out, the wind field conversion before and after the explosion of the summer monsoon in the south China is carried out on the basis of the inversion of the ocean surface wind of a wind field measuring radar of a new instrument carried by the weather satellite in FY-3E, and the application capability of two types of satellite data in the weather monitoring of the summer monsoon in the south China is shown through different data verification. In addition to monitoring atmospheric parameter transitions in the south-ocean-summer monsoon region in real time, global covered polar orbiting satellites can also monitor the over-equatorial airflow, warm-wet vapor transport, south indian ocean-tropical low pressure or cyclone, the mongolian gulf burst vortex or cyclone storm, etc., which are important indicators for asian monsoon wind establishment prior to the south-ocean-summer monsoon burst, and the triggering of the weather-scale system on the monsoon burst. The weather service can be monitored and predicted by the south China sea summer monsoon based on the weather satellite, and the weather value mode or the analysis data can be developed in sequence to form mutual evidence.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The foregoing is merely a preferred embodiment of the present application, and it should be noted that modifications and variations could be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the technical principles of the present application, and such modifications and variations should also be regarded as being within the scope of the application.
Claims (8)
1. The method for monitoring the double indexes of the south sea summer monsoon based on the wind cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, obtaining 850hPa atmospheric temperature and specific humidity through a polar orbit meteorological satellite FY-3D vertical detection instrument set VASS, processing into daily average data, and calculating to obtain an artificial equivalent temperature index of 850 hPa;
s2, acquiring ocean surface wind field data through wind field measurement radars windRAD of polar orbit meteorological satellites FY-3E, processing the ocean surface wind field data into daily average data to obtain ocean surface wind speed and wind direction, and obtaining average latitudinal wind indexes;
s3, evaluating the accuracy of FY-3D/VASS temperature and specific humidity relative to ERA5 data;
s4, evaluating the precision of FY-3E/windRAD ocean surface wind relative to the Metop-C/ASCAT data;
and S5, verifying the accuracy of monitoring the process of the south China sea summer monsoon burst by using the double indexes of S1 and S2 according to the evaluation results of S3 and S4.
2. The method for monitoring the double indexes of the south sea and the summer monsoon based on the wind-cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite is characterized in that the south sea and the summer monsoon are in the range of (10-20 DEG N;110-120 DEG E).
3. The method for monitoring the double indexes of the south China sea and the summer monsoon based on the wind cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite is characterized in that the daily average data is required to be subjected to space lattice point matching in the south China sea and the summer monsoon.
4. The method for monitoring the double indexes of the south sea and the summer monsoon based on the wind-cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation index calculation formula of the precision of the S3 and the S4 is as follows:
wherein Y is a variable to be inspected, X is a variable of an inspection reference value, n is a matching sample size,mean value of the variables examined for n samples, +.>The mean value of the reference variable is checked for n samples.
5. The method for monitoring the double indexes of the south sea and summer monsoon based on the cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite according to claim 1, wherein the method is characterized in that FY-3D/VASS and ERA5 are compared in S3, and the temporary phase temperature distribution is consistent with the season advance trend, so that the cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite can monitor the change characteristics of the index of the atmospheric temperature and humidity in the process of the outbreak of the south sea and summer monsoon.
6. The method for monitoring the south sea summer monsoon dual index based on the wind cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite according to claim 1, wherein the comparison of FY-3E/WindRAD and Metop-C/ASCAT in S4 is characterized in that the distribution of ocean surface wind fields is consistent, the position and the intensity of a large wind speed area are close, and therefore the wind cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite can monitor wind field conversion characteristics in the process of the south sea summer monsoon burst.
7. The method for monitoring the south China sea and summer monsoon based on the cloud polar orbit meteorological satellite is characterized in that the accuracy of S1 and S2 double-index monitoring of the process of the south China sea and summer monsoon burst is compared and verified with the time of the south China sea and summer monsoon burst issued by national climate center business.
8. The method of claim 1, wherein the average FY-3D pseudophase temperature and FY-3E ocean surface wind profile display of the polar orbiting weather satellite when global coverage is monitored is further used to monitor the over-the-equator airflow, warm moisture vapor transport, low pressure or cyclone in the south indian ocean, the singla bay whirlpool or cyclone storm, and the triggering of the summer monsoon burst by the weather scale system, which are important indicators of asian monsoon before the onset of the south indian monsoon.
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