CN116595913B - Typhoon wind field simulation system and method for improving ocean model precision - Google Patents
Typhoon wind field simulation system and method for improving ocean model precision Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of meteorological data fusion processing, and discloses a typhoon wind field simulation system and method for improving accuracy of a marine model. According to the method, a typhoon wind field is constructed by adopting an empirical formula in a cyclone wind field generating tool in the typhoon period; filling an ERA5 wind field in a region far from the typhoon center based on the constructed typhoon wind field, and smoothly transitioning a cyclone wind field and the ERA5 wind field; based on the study area and typhoon path position, using empirical coefficients、And (3) withCalculating the maximum wind speed radius; obtaining a key coefficient of a typhoon structure of a wind field according to the calculated maximum wind speed radius; and extracting the typhoon eye position according to the acquired typhoon wind field structure. The reconstructed typhoon wind field has complete structure, the position of the wind eye is accurate compared with the actual typhoon, the maximum wind speed of the constructed typhoon wind field is matched with measured data, and a decimal wind ring and a twelve-level wind ring which are frequently lost in the unmodified typhoon wind field appear.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of meteorological data fusion processing, and particularly relates to a typhoon wind field simulation system and method for improving accuracy of a marine model.
Background
In recent years, natural disasters caused by global climate change frequently occur, typhoons are the most common type, and huge threats are brought to life and property safety of people.
In marine modes, wind farm driving plays a critical role in the accuracy of the model results, while the measured wind farms do not meet the demands of the model operation far enough. Therefore, it is common in the art to use wind farm re-analysis products to provide sea surface driving for patterns or to construct typhoons using empirical formulas through specialized atmospheric numerical models (such as WRF, etc.) and programming techniques, but the correlation coefficients required for these approaches are difficult and time consuming to obtain, and require a large number of steps and data collection for the construction of multiple typhoons. There are differences between the reanalyzed products of different wind farms, and there are differences in the applicability of wind farms in modes in different sea areas.
The current work performed on the sea area by using the ocean mode is mainly limited to the study of structural property and regularity, and the suitable wind field selection and the optimization of the high-precision ocean mode are further required to be explored.
Typhoons generally refer to strong warm low-pressure vortex (tropical low pressure) formed in the atmosphere of tropical sea, and disaster phenomena such as strong wind, heavy rainfall, billow and the like are often accompanied during passing. Typhoon disasters seriously jeopardize property safety. Typhoons are large in quantity and intensity, and have a non-negligible effect on the marine water movement of the area.
When the wind field blows across the sea surface, energy transfer can be generated to drive the sea to form various water body movements, and almost all the small-scale waves or large-scale circulation currents are driven by the wind field on the sea surface. Thus, the accuracy of the wind field directly affects the reliability of the ocean pattern, while the selection of an appropriate sea surface wind field is critical to the ocean numerical pattern. However, since the conditions for directly acquiring the observed data are severe, the cost is extremely high, and it is difficult to obtain complete large-scale, long-time series data, so that the obtained analysis data based on limited observed data becomes an atmospheric driving wind field which is difficult to replace in the marine numerical mode. At present, many analysis data sets of sea surface wind farms have been proposed, and the quality of different data sets, such as the difference in resolution of different data sets, the difference in wind vector fields, the influence on sea modes, etc. have also been studied and analyzed. Of these, the NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 and ERA5 wind farm analysis data sets are widely used in marine modes.
The NCEP CFSR data is re-analyzed (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) data of a climate forecast system of a certain national environmental forecast center (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, abbreviated as NCEP), and provides the atmospheric wind field data from 1979 to 2010, and has the horizontal resolution of 0.313 degrees by 0.312 degrees and the time resolution of 1h. The CFSV2 (Climate Forecast System Version 2) data is an overall upgrade product of the CFSR, provides the wind field data from 2011 to date, improves the horizontal resolution to 0.205 degrees by 0.204 degrees, and keeps the time resolution at 1h. The ERA5 dataset combined a large number of observations into pattern calculations using advanced numerical patterns and data assimilation techniques provided a large number of data products, including atmospheric, surface and ocean, to date 1950 with a horizontal resolution of 0.25 ° x 0.25 ° and a temporal resolution of 1h.
For the accuracy of these two types of analysis data and the applicability in numerical mode, some studies have been conducted to conduct verification analysis in different sea areas. Sea surface wind fields and sea waves of ERA5 are more similar to observations in the indian ocean; in the atlantic, the re-analysis product of NECP CFSR/CFSV2 would produce a stronger cyclone than ERA 5; the prior studies suggest that ERA5 wind farms as the driving wind farms for ocean mode generally give better simulation results and that the simulation of severe weather, typhoons, is also dominant in this area. It follows that the accuracy of the analysis data and the applicability in the ocean mode of different wind farms are different in different sea areas.
In the past, typhoon field data generally uses global analysis wind field data, but in a middle-small-scale ocean model, grid accuracy of the analysis wind field is insufficient to support a high-accuracy ocean model, in this case, a former person often constructs typhoons by using a professional atmosphere numerical model (such as WRF) or by using an empirical formula through a programming technique, but input coefficients required by the methods are difficult to obtain and take a long time, and a large number of steps and data collection are required for constructing a plurality of typhoons.
Through the above analysis, the prior art has the problems and disadvantages. (1) In the mode research of ocean, the accuracy and the applicability of wind farm re-analysis data products such as CFSR/CFSV2, ERA5 and the like are comprehensively evaluated; whereas the assessment of the applicability of typhoons to analyze data in patterns is clearly inadequate. (2) The middle-small scale ocean structure plays an important role in ocean heat transport, and due to lack of high-precision mode research on the sea area, accurate change research on the middle-small scale structure is also lacking. (3) The existing atmospheric model has the defects that the actual parameters required by the typhoon simulation process are large, most data are difficult to obtain, the time required by the model to construct typhoon is long, and the input of the model to the marine hydrodynamic numerical model is difficult to realize.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the problems in the related art, the embodiment of the invention provides a typhoon wind field simulation system and a typhoon wind field simulation method for improving the accuracy of a marine model. In particular to a typhoon field simulator for improving the precision of a marine model.
The technical scheme is as follows: a typhoon wind field simulation method for improving the accuracy of a marine model comprises the following steps. S1, selecting Young and Sobey typhoon empirical formulas in an MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool in a wind field during typhoon to construct a typhoon wind field model. S2, constructing typhoon wind through a MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool, defining a region with the wind speed of the constructed typhoon wind field less than that of an ERA5 wind field as a region far away from the center of typhoon, comparing the wind speed of the ERA5 wind field with that of a constructed typhoon wind field model in a programming mode, and selecting ERA5 wind field data in a region with the wind speed of the constructed wind field less than that of the ERA5 wind field; and the outer side of the cyclone wind field reconstructed by the MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool is in smooth transition with the ERA5 wind field, and when the wind direction difference exceeds 90 degrees, the ERA5 wind field is subjected to gradual change wind direction correction according to the space-time change trend characteristic. S3, according to the research area and typhoon path position, using experience coefficient 、And (3) withAnd calculating the maximum wind speed radius, and acquiring the key coefficient of the typhoon structure of the wind field according to the calculated maximum wind speed radius. S4, acquiring wind speed and wind direction of the complete typhoon wind field and resolved east component u and north component v according to the required range of the research area.
In step S1, constructing the collected actual typhoon parameters into a typhoon wind field by using a Young and Sobey typhoon empirical formula; the actual typhoon parameters include: the difference between the central air pressure and the peripheral air pressure, the maximum wind speed radius, the typhoon center moving speed, the direction and the angle of the typhoon moving path and the distance from the observation point to the typhoon center.
In step S1, before constructing the typhoon wind field model, acquisition of water depth topography data, wind field data acquisition, and acquisition of typhoon trajectory data of the position of the wind eye, the central air pressure, the ambient air pressure and the maximum wind speed per hour used in constructing the typhoon wind field model are also required.
In step S3, empirical coefficients are used based on the study area and typhoon path position、And (3) withIn calculating the maximum wind speed radius, the maximum wind speed radiusDifferential pressure from central air pressureIs obviously inversely related to the maximum wind speed radiusAnd center air pressure differenceIs calculated by an empirical linear model: The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the In the method, in the process of the invention,for the radius of the maximum wind speed,are all the empirical coefficients of the human body,as a random error term,is the center air pressure difference.
In step S3, the wind farm typhoon structure key coefficients include: wind eye longitude, wind eye latitude and maximum wind speedCentral air pressure, ambient air pressure and central air pressure difference of typhoon。
In step S4, acquiring accurate positions of a decimal wind ring and a twelve-level wind ring according to the acquired complete typhoon wind field; the wind speed of the ten-stage wind ring is 24.5m/s-28.4m/s, and the wind speed of the twelve-stage wind ring is 32.7m/s-36.9m/s.
Another object of the present invention is to provide a typhoon wind farm simulation system for improving accuracy of a ocean model, and to implement the typhoon wind farm simulation method for improving accuracy of a ocean model, the typhoon wind farm simulation system comprising: the typhoon wind field construction module is used for constructing a typhoon wind field model by selecting Young and Sobey typhoon empirical formulas in the MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generation tool in the typhoon period; ERA5 wind field gradual change wind direction filling module for constructing typhoon wind through MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool, defining the region with the wind speed smaller than ERA5 wind field wind speed as the region far away from typhoon center, utilizing programming Comparing the wind speed of the ERA5 wind field with that of the constructed typhoon wind field model in a mode, and selecting ERA5 wind field data in a region where the wind speed of the constructed wind field is less than that of the ERA5 wind field; the outer side of the cyclone wind field reconstructed by the MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool is in smooth transition with the ERA5 wind field, and when the wind direction difference exceeds 90 degrees, gradual change wind direction correction is carried out on the ERA5 wind field according to the space-time change trend characteristic; the wind field typhoon structure key coefficient acquisition module is used for utilizing experience coefficients according to the research area and typhoon path positions、And (3) withCalculating the maximum wind speed radius, and acquiring a key coefficient of the typhoon structure of the wind field according to the calculated maximum wind speed radius; the complete typhoon wind field acquisition module is used for acquiring wind speed and wind direction of the complete typhoon wind field, and decomposed east component u and north component v according to the required range of the research area. Furthermore, a typhoon field simulator for improving the precision of the ocean model is built by using the system, and the positions of the ten-stage wind ring and the twelve-stage wind ring are obtained.
By combining all the technical schemes, the invention has the advantages and positive effects that: according to the invention, a high-precision ocean mode is obtained, and the medium-small scale structure in the ocean area is further analyzed in more detail through comprehensive analysis of observation data and mode results. A new way for optimizing and improving the ocean mode is explored, and the method has practical application value on the refined research result of a certain sea area. Steps and time in the typhoon construction process are simplified, and the coincidence degree of the constructed typhoon field and the actual typhoon field is improved. Experiments show that the strong typhoon with the maximum wind speed exceeding 40m/s like a typhoon is seen through the ERA5 wind field and the reconstructed wind field, the reconstructed wind field typhoon has complete structure, and compared with the actual typhoon, the position of the wind eye is accurate. The maximum wind speed can reach 48m/s as shown by the actual data, and ten-stage wind circles and twelve-stage wind circles missing from the analysis wind place appear.
According to the typhoon wind field simulation system and method capable of improving the accuracy of the ocean model, the typhoon wind field is simulated, so that the simulation accuracy of the ocean model is improved, better early warning and decision support services can be provided for related departments and public, and expected social benefits and economic benefits are huge. The system and the method play an important role in the fields of ocean science, meteorological science and the like.
According to the typhoon wind field simulation system and method for improving the accuracy of the ocean model, provided by the invention, the typhoon wind field is simulated by utilizing an advanced computer technology and a large amount of measured data, and the position, the path and the strength of the wind eyes of typhoons can be obtained more accurately, so that the accuracy of the ocean model is improved. The concrete steps are as follows: the traditional typhoon prediction method mainly relies on equipment such as meteorological satellites, meteorological radars and the like to monitor and analyze in real time, and has limited coverage range; the invention can simulate and simulate on the basis of fusing ERA5 wind fields, cover wider areas and improve the comprehensiveness and accuracy of analysis data.
The invention supplements the high wind speed data missing of the typhoon of the global re-analysis wind field data by utilizing the typhoon real data which are easy to obtain, the method is efficient and accurate, and the typhoon field constructed by the invention is accurately verified in the ocean three-dimensional hydrodynamic and deposition dynamic model; in addition, the typhoon real data published on the public website is collected, and the large-area data of the wind field are analyzed again in a global mode, so that the typhoon field with high precision and accurate wind eye position is efficiently constructed.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the disclosure and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the disclosure. FIG. 1 is a diagram of a typhoon wind field simulation method for improving the accuracy of a marine model according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a typhoon wind field simulation system for improving the accuracy of a marine model according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of the ERA5 wind farm generation tool according to an embodiment of the present invention. Fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of wind speed and wind direction of a MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generation tool according to an embodiment of the present invention. Fig. 5 is a comparison verification chart of water level simulation results and measured data of a certain typhoon period of a station 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention. Fig. 6 is a comparison verification chart of water level simulation results and measured data of a certain typhoon period of a station 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention. Fig. 7 is a comparison verification chart of water level simulation results and measured data of a certain typhoon period of a station 3 according to an embodiment of the present invention. In the figure: 1. the typhoon wind field construction module; 2. ERA5 wind field gradual change wind direction filling module; 3. the key coefficient acquisition module of the typhoon structure of the wind field; 4. and the complete typhoon wind field acquisition module.
Detailed Description
In order that the above objects, features and advantages of the invention will be readily understood, a more particular description of the invention will be rendered by reference to the appended drawings. In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention. The invention may be embodied in many other forms than described herein and similarly modified by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention, which is therefore not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.
In embodiment 1, as shown in fig. 1, the typhoon wind field simulation method for improving the accuracy of the ocean model provided by the embodiment of the invention can simply and effectively make up for the defect that the grid accuracy of the global re-analysis wind field data is larger than the typhoon scale.
S1, selecting Young and Sobey typhoon empirical formulas in an MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool in a wind field during typhoon to construct a typhoon wind field model.
S2, constructing typhoon wind through a MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool, defining a region with the wind speed of the constructed typhoon wind field less than that of an ERA5 wind field as a region far away from the center of typhoon, comparing the wind speed of the ERA5 wind field with that of a constructed typhoon wind field model in a programming mode, and selecting ERA5 wind field data in a region with the wind speed of the constructed wind field less than that of the ERA5 wind field; and the outer side of the cyclone wind field reconstructed by the MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool is in smooth transition with the ERA5 wind field, and when the wind direction difference exceeds 90 degrees, the ERA5 wind field is subjected to gradual change wind direction correction according to the space-time change trend characteristic.
S3, according to the research area and typhoon path position, using experience coefficient、And (3) withCalculating the maximum wind speed radius; and obtaining the key coefficient of the typhoon structure of the wind field according to the calculated maximum wind speed radius.
S4, acquiring wind speed and wind direction of the complete typhoon wind field and resolved east component u and north component v according to the required range of the research area.
According to the technical scheme, the reconstructed typhoon wind field is complete in structure, compared with the actual typhoon, the position of the wind eye is accurate, the maximum wind speed of the constructed typhoon wind field is matched with measured data, and ten-stage wind rings and twelve-stage wind rings which are frequently lost in the unmodified typhoon wind field appear.
In step S1 of the embodiment of the invention, the collected actual typhoon parameters are constructed into typhoon wind fields by using Young and Sobey typhoon experience formulas; the actual typhoon parameters include: the difference between the central air pressure and the peripheral air pressure is the maximum wind speed, the typhoon central moving speed, the direction and the angle of the typhoon moving path and the distance from the observation point to the typhoon center.
According to Young and Sobey typhoon empirical formula, wind speed of rotating gradient windAt a distance from the cyclone centerThe calculation formula is divided into two cases when In the time-course of which the first and second contact surfaces,the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the When (when)When (1):the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the In the method, in the process of the invention,for the radius of the maximum wind speed,for the maximum wind speed,to rotate the distance of the gradient wind from the cyclone center,for the wind speed of the rotating gradient wind,is the wind speed of the rotating gradient wind at a distance r from the cyclone center.
According to the coast protection Manual (1984) compiled by the national army engineering weapon coast research center, the air pressure thereinThe method comprises the following steps:the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the In the method, in the process of the invention,is the air pressure in the center of typhoon,is the air pressure of the surrounding environment and,is the air pressure at a distance r from the cyclone center.
In step S1 of the embodiment of the present invention, before constructing the typhoon wind farm, it is necessary to perform: the method comprises the steps of collecting water depth topographic data, collecting wind field data, and constructing typhoon track data of the position of an air hole, central air pressure, ambient air pressure and maximum wind speed in an hour used in a typhoon wind field.
In the embodiment of the invention, step S3 utilizes the empirical coefficient according to the research area and the typhoon path position、And (3) withIn performing the calculation of the radius of the maximum wind speed,differential pressure from central air pressureIs obviously and inversely related toAndis calculated by an empirical linear model:the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the In the method, in the process of the invention,for the radius of the maximum wind speed,are all the empirical coefficients of the human body,for random error term, assuming normal distribution, the mean value is 0, and the standard deviation is；Is the center air pressure difference.
In step S3 of the embodiment of the present invention, the wind farmThe typhoon structure key coefficients include: wind eye longitude, wind eye latitude and maximum wind speedCentral air pressure, ambient air pressure and central air pressure difference of typhoon。
In step S3 of the embodiment of the present invention, the converted typhoon maximum wind speed matches with the observation station measured data.
In step S4 of the embodiment of the invention, accurate positions of a decimal wind ring (the wind speed is between 24.5m/S and 28.4 m/S) and a twelve-level wind ring (the wind speed is between 32.7m/S and 36.9 m/S) are obtained according to the acquired typhoon wind field structure.
As shown in fig. 2, an embodiment of the present invention provides a typhoon wind field simulation system for improving accuracy of a ocean model, the system including: the typhoon wind field construction module 1 is used for constructing a typhoon wind field model by selecting Young and Sobey typhoon empirical formulas in an MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generation tool in a wind field during typhoon; the ERA5 wind field gradual change wind direction filling module 2 is used for constructing typhoon wind through a MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool, defining a region with the wind speed smaller than that of the ERA5 wind field as a region far away from the center of the typhoon, comparing the wind speed of the ERA5 wind field with that of a constructed typhoon wind field model in a programming mode, and selecting ERA5 wind field data in a region with the wind speed smaller than that of the ERA5 wind field; the outer side of the cyclone wind field reconstructed by the MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool is in smooth transition with the ERA5 wind field, and when the wind direction difference exceeds 90 degrees, gradual change wind direction correction is carried out on the ERA5 wind field according to the space-time change trend characteristic; the wind field typhoon structure key coefficient acquisition module 3 is used for utilizing experience coefficients according to the research area and typhoon path positions 、And (3) withCalculating the maximum wind speed radius; obtaining a key coefficient of a typhoon structure of a wind field according to the calculated maximum wind speed radius; the complete typhoon wind field acquisition module 4 is used for acquiring wind speed and wind direction of the complete typhoon wind field, and decomposed east component u and north component v according to the required range of the research area.
Illustratively, a typhoon field simulator for improving the accuracy of the ocean model is built by using the typhoon field simulation system for improving the accuracy of the ocean model, and the positions of the ten-stage wind ring and the twelve-stage wind ring are obtained.
Embodiment 2, in order to further clearly understand the typhoon wind field simulation method for improving the accuracy of the ocean model provided by the embodiment of the invention, the following description is further made.
1. And collecting hydrologic and suspension observation data.
Ocean current: sea current observation data of 9 stations (Y1-Y9) in one near-high tide and 16 stations (C1-C16, X1-X16) in two high tide are collected, the observation time lasts for more than 25 hours, the time resolution is 1 hour, and three layers (0.5 m below the water surface, 0.6H layer and 0.5m on the seabed) are divided in the vertical direction. Observations included flow rates and directions, measured using RDI WHS ADCP (600 kHz) and Seaguard RCM current instruments. The Seaguard RCM current instrument is uniformly arranged before departure, the sampling interval is set to be 1 minute, and the Seaguard RCM current instrument is arranged according to a continuous sampling mode, so that the normal operation of the instrument is ensured. ADCP is fixed in the stainless steel frame that the ship side was designed, invades ADCP instrument transducer 1-2m departments under water downwards, guarantees that the instrument can not expose the surface of water, fixes stainless steel frame on the ship with rope and iron wire etc. and every 2 hours inspection instrument operating condition, whole point begins work, sampling interval 30 minutes, and every time lasts sampling 2 minutes, guarantees instrument normal operating.
Salinity: the observation is carried out simultaneously at 16 stations (C1-C16, X1-X16) in two times of large tide, the observation time lasts for more than 25 hours, the time resolution is 1 hour, and three layers (0.5 m below the water surface, 0.6H layer and 0.5m on the seabed) are divided in the vertical direction. Salinity was measured using a SeaBird 37S CTD with an accuracy of 0.002 psu.
The investigation instruments used in the investigation method are all used in the verification period, and all investigation instrument equipment is provided with double backups so as to be replaced in time when the offshore investigation instrument is lost.
1.1 numerical model. And the dynamics of the research area is calculated, and the utilized coupling model system is a dynamic modeling system and is suitable for coastal, estuary and river environments. The coupling model constructed by the invention comprises the following components: MIKE 3 Flow Model FM (Hydrodynamic Module) for hydrodynamics calculation MIKE 21 Cyclone Wind Generation tool for desk wind farm construction.
1.2 hydrodynamic model. (1) a water flow module: the hydrodynamic module (Hydrodynamic Module) in the MIKE 3 Flow Model FM adopts a finite volume method to discretize the research area, subdivides the continuous calculation area into non-overlapping control units and enables each grid point to be adjacent to one control unit; and integrating the differential equation to be solved for each control unit to obtain a set of discrete equations. The model uses unstructured grid in the horizontal domain, and can be performed in the vertical domain by adopting sigma coordinates or z-level coordinates, and the invention selects equidistant sigma coordinates, and has the advantage of being capable of forming a continuous water layer near the bottom.
sigma coordinate conversion:the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,the vertical coordinates of the rectangular coordinate system and the sigma coordinate system are respectively;、the water depth and the water level are respectively.
The ocean model can adopt dynamic time step, namely, the time step can be automatically adjusted according to the resolution of the grid, and the Convergence (CFL) of the model is ensured<1) On the premise of greatly improving the running efficiency and stability of the model, saving the calculation time, and the calculation formula of the CFL number in the model is as follows:the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the In the method, in the process of the invention,is a judgment value of the convergence condition of the model,the acceleration of the gravity is that,is the depth of water, the water is in the water,for the east component flow velocity,for the time step size of the time step,for the eastern space step size,for the north component flow velocity,is the northbound space step length; the model approximately solves the Reynolds average Navier-Stokes equation based on the Boussinesq assumption and the vertical static pressure assumption. Thus, the model consists of continuity, momentum, temperature, salinity and density equations and is closed using a turbulent flow closing scheme.
The model continuity equation is:the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Momentum equations in the x direction and the y direction are respectively;。
。
in the method, in the process of the invention,time is;、、is Cartesian coordinates;sea surface wave (sea level) as calculated from the stationary sea surface up;distance from the sea floor to the resting sea surface;is the total water depth; 、、Respectively is、、A velocity component of the direction;is the Kelvin force parameter, whereinIs the speed of the ground rotation angle,is the geographic latitude;gravitational acceleration;is water density;、、andis the wave radiation stress tensor;is a vertical vortex viscosity coefficient;is at atmospheric pressure;is the water reference density;as a source item, a source item is provided,、is the speed at which the water source enters the adjacent body of water.
The first term at the left end of the two equations represents local acceleration, and the last three terms at the left end represent convection acceleration; the first term at the right end represents the coriolis acceleration; the second item on the right represents the surface water level acceleration; the third term at the right represents the atmospheric pressure gradient term; the fourth term on the right represents buoyancy effect acceleration; the fifth item on the right represents the wave stream; the sixth term on the right represents the imbalance (horizontal momentum diffusion term) generated by horizontal reynolds stress; the seventh term on the right represents the vertical stress created by the Bousinesq approximation; the eighth right hand entry represents the acceleration resulting from the inflow of the source item.
The horizontal stress term is described by a gradient stress relationship, simplified as:；the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the In the method, in the process of the invention,is the horizontal vortex viscosity coefficient.
Temperature (temperature)And salinity ofFollowing the general transport-diffusion equation:。
。
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,is the vertical turbulence (vortex) diffusion coefficient,is a source item generated by heat exchange with the atmosphere, Andis the temperature and salinity of the source.Is a horizontal diffusion term, defined as.
The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,the horizontal diffusion coefficient, the diffusion coefficient is related to the vortex viscosity.
The calculation of bed shear stress follows Quadratic friction law:the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the In the method, in the process of the invention,drag coefficient for bed;for a near-bottom flow rate,the expression of (2) is:the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the In the method, in the process of the invention,the value is 0.4 for von Karman constant;is the characteristic value of the friction resistance of the bed, and the value depends on the height of the friction resistance of the bedThe expression is as follows:whereinThe value is about 1/30.
Wind stressThe empirical formula is adopted:the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,is the air density;is the air drag coefficient;is the wind speed at sea surface 10 m. Drag coefficientCan be given according to wind speed, and the empirical formula is as follows.
。
Wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,、、、takes the empirical coefficients as 0.001255, 0.002425, 7m/s and 25m/s respectively,is the wind speed at sea surface 10 m.
1.3 typhoon model. The MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generation tool (MIKE 21 Cyclone Wind Generation tool) can calculate wind and air pressure data generated by tropical cyclone (hurricane or typhoon) through inputting parameters, and is used for constructing typhoon wind fields with different paths and intensities, and the typhoon wind fields are added into a hydrodynamic model to carry out model experiments.
Key parameters of typhoons are variables characterizing typhoon cyclone structure and strength, including: (1) the difference between the central air pressure and the peripheral air pressure, (2) the radius is the maximum wind speed, (3) the typhoon central moving speed, (4) the direction and the angle of the typhoon moving path, and (5) the distance from the observation point to the typhoon center.
The tool comprises different cyclone wind field construction parameter models, namely Young and Sobey and Holland, rankine, and wind and air pressure data of the cyclone wind field are obtained through calculation of the different models. In the invention, the Young and Sobey typhoon empirical mode is selected to construct the collected actual typhoon parameters as a typhoon wind field.
According to Young and Sobey parameter model, wind speed of rotating gradient windAt a distance from the cyclone centerThe calculation formula of the position is divided into two cases, when r;。
when (when)When (1):the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the In the method, in the process of the invention,for the radius of the maximum wind speed,is the maximum wind speed.
According to the coast protection Manual (1984) compiled by the national army engineering weapon coast research center, the air pressure thereinThe method comprises the following steps:the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the In the method, in the process of the invention,is the air pressure in the center of typhoon,is the air pressure of the surrounding environment.
1.4 model construction. The model area is 21.15-23 DEG N, 113-115 DEG E, and land boundary and open boundary are set to cover the whole bead mouth and the adjacent sea area. The sea area calculated using triangulation contains 38347 meshes, with the single mesh of the unencrypted area not exceeding 0.0004 °. In order to ensure the accuracy and stability during calculation, gradual double-layer encryption is carried out between the inside of the estuary and the sea area near the estuary, and the minimum grid spacing of the encryption area is smaller than 500m. Because the water depth of the research area is shallowly distributed in 0-80m, the sigma average layering is adopted vertically, and the total number of the sigma average layering is 11. To ensure stability of the models, all models have a time step of 300 s.
1.4.1 numerical modeling constructs data collection. (1) water depth topography data: the water depth and shoreline data employed for numerical simulation are from the charts of 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2016 and are supplemented with ETOPO1 water depth data of the website shared by the national center for environmental information. (2) wind field data: the 2015-2019 climatic state wind field analysis data EAR5 data set adopted in the numerical simulation has the horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees and the time resolution of 1 hour, and the data set is provided by a European mid-term weather forecast center research website; the position of the wind eyes, the central air pressure and the ambient air pressure and the maximum wind speed of each hour used in constructing the typhoon model are all taken from typhoon track data provided by typhoon nets. (3) tidal water level data: the model is driven by water level, the tide data is provided by a TPXO8 tide data set website published by Oregon state university, the tide data set is based on the tide model and fused with satellite remote sensing sea surface height data, and the precision is greatly improved compared with the prior products. (4) ocean current and salt temperature data: the ocean current, temperature and salinity data input by open boundaries are provided by the American global ocean data assimilation experiment planning website. (5) runoff data: and the runoff effect is added into the model, and river runoff and sand content data are provided by the water conservancy division website of the people's republic of China.
1.4.2 hydrodynamic model construction. The open boundary of the hydrodynamic model inputs sea surface altitude, three-dimensional ocean current uv flow rate, temperature and salinity. The forecast water level obtained by adopting the TPXO8 tide data set at the water level opening boundary is superimposed with the residual water level extracted from the HYCOM numerical value assimilation data, and the time resolution is 1/6 hour. The open boundary of the current uv flow speed adopts current superposition to extract current data from HYCOM numerical value assimilation data, wherein the current uv data adopts a model unidirectional nesting method, namely a large-area pure tide model is additionally built, and the needed open boundary current data is provided for a research area model. The resolution of the large-area model grid is 0.0005 degrees, no encryption area exists, and the model adopts sigma coordinates and is equally divided into 15 layers. The open boundary temperature, salinity open boundary and initial Wen Yanchang are derived from the HYCOM model output results. The model considers the wave-current combined action, and the wave module performs coupling calculation on the water flow module. The wave module selects a side boundary in an open boundary setting, i.e. the two sides of the boundary are considered to be capable of wave propagation but no swell is transmitted in the open sea, and the waves are mainly generated by wind in the setting. The model calculation result comprises wind-induced wave height, wave direction and bottom wave period, and the model calculation result is used as a forced condition hydrodynamic module for calculating important parameters required in sediment modules such as bottom wave track speed, wave flow combined action shear stress and the like.
The model considers the runoff effect, the runoff quantity is estimated according to the total runoff quantity per month and the distribution proportion of the runoff quantity at each gate, the initial salinity of the runoff is set to be 7psu, the initial salinity is gradually reduced to be 2psu along with the time, and the runoff temperature is set to be 27.5 ℃.
1.4.3 typhoon model construction. The analysis wind field is not suitable for describing the small scale of typhoons due to the coarser grid, and previous research has found that various analysis wind fields have relatively small data for strong winds. As shown by comparison of actually measured wind circles in FIG. 3, ERA5 re-analyzes the wind field to reflect certain typhoon information, but the wind speed value near the center of the typhoon is obviously smaller, the wind field lacks ten-stage wind circles and twelve-stage wind circles, and the wind eye position is different from the actual wind eye position. Therefore, a typhoon model is constructed by using Young and Sobey empirical formulas in an MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool during typhoon, and the applicability of the classical empirical formulas in a certain sea area is proved by a large number of researches. Use of ERA5 wind farms in areas remote from typhoon centresFilling is carried out, and smooth transition of the two wind fields is ensured. Dividing the maximum wind speed radius when constructing the platform wind field The outsides were obtained via the central weather station typhoon site (table 2). Correlation analysis of multiple cities in a coastal region shows that,differential pressure from central air pressureIs obviously and inversely related toAndthe empirical linear model of (2) provides the formula, and:the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the In the method, in the process of the invention,for random error term, assuming normal distribution, the mean value is 0, and the standard deviation is。
According to the study area and typhoon path position, selecting the empirical coefficients of city 1, city 2 and region 3 provided in the study、And (3) with(Table 1) calculation of maximum wind speed radius was performed. The calculated specific values of the maximum wind speed radius and other key coefficient settings are shown in Table 2.
Table 1 empirical coefficients of typhoons maximum wind speed radius formula.
。
Table 2 some typhoon key coefficients.
。
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of ERA5 wind field generation tool wind speed and wind direction, and FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generation tool wind speed and wind direction; the arrows in fig. 3 and 4 are used for generating the tool wind direction, the circle represents the typhoon wind ring in the measured data, the minimum ring is 12-level wind ring (> 32.7 m/s), the circle close to the minimum ring is 10-level wind ring (> 24.5 m/s), and the outermost ring is 7-level wind ring (> 13.9 m/s).
From FIG. 4, it is apparent that, from the ERA5 wind field and the reconstructed wind field, the typhoon with the maximum wind speed exceeding 40m/s like a typhoon has complete structure, and the position of the wind eyes is accurate compared with the actual typhoon. The maximum wind speed can reach 48m/s shown by the actual data, and ten-level wind circles and twelve-level wind circles which are missing of the unmodified wind field appear.
1.4.4 model verification.
1.4.4.1 model validates the data. The observation elements and station position information of the actual measurement data used for model verification are shown in table 3. The water level changes of three stations are collected during a certain typhoon, and are respectively: the water level of TH1 is collected from the actual measurement water level data of a certain station 1, the water level of TH2 is collected from the actual measurement water level data of a certain station 2, the water level of a TH3 station is collected from the actual measurement water level data of a certain station 3, the ocean current and salinity are selected and collected hydrology and representative point positions in actual measurement data of a suspension body are renumbered, and the suspended sediment concentration verification data is collected from a technical center engineering project report.
Table 3 model verifies the actual measured data observation elements and station information used.
。
1.4.4.2 authentication method. For quantitative evaluation of model performance, two indexes, namely Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and prediction Skill (Skill), are used to quantify the comparison of the model with the measured data.
The RMSE represents the average deviation between the model result and the observed data, is sensitive to extreme errors in the model result, can well reflect the precision degree of the model result, has the unit consistent with the original data, and has better model simulation result as the RMSE is smaller. Skill shows a consistency index of the model result and the measured data, when the value is 1, the model prediction is completely consistent with the actual data, and when the value is 0, the model prediction is completely inconsistent with the actual data.
According to the Willmott method, the calculation formula is as follows: wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,andrespectively a model result value and an actual measurement data value,the time average of the measured data is shown,for the moment, N is the number of samples,is the root mean square error (rms) error,is a predicted skill value.
1.4.4.3 water level verification. In the comparison verification of the simulated water level results with the 30 day measured data of the ocean station, the half-day tide and the weaker full-day tide predominate in the mouth of the pearl river during the entire simulation period. The tidal asymmetry is remarkable, the average tidal difference of H1 and H2 is 101cm and 104cm respectively, and the maximum tidal difference at a large tide is about 208cm and 239cm. H1 average rising tide duration and falling tide duration are 7 hours 55 minutes and 6 hours 8 minutes respectively, and H2 average rising tide duration and falling tide duration are 7 hours 12 minutes and 6 hours 32 minutes respectively. The simulated water level and the observed water level are well matched, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is 15.4cm and 13.2cm, and the Skill values are all larger than 0.96.
Fig. 5 is a diagram showing comparison verification of water level simulation results and measured data during a typhoon of the station 1, fig. 6 is a diagram showing comparison verification of water level simulation results and measured data during a typhoon of the station 2, fig. 7 is a diagram showing comparison verification of water level simulation results and measured data during a typhoon of the station 3, and fig. 5-7 show simulation and observation water levels of three selected stations during a typhoon. The wind field constructed by using the MIKE 21 cyclone construction tool and represented by the dotted line is compared with the ERA5 analysis wind field, the water increasing effect is closer to the actual water increasing effect, and the time when the water level reaches the highest value can be seen to follow the movement time change of typhoons due to different positions of three stations. The amplitude, the phase and the maximum water level of the three stations are accurately reproduced, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the three stations is respectively 30.1cm, 24.4cm and 18.3cm, and the prediction Skill Skill value is more than 0.92. Although the model captures the phase of the water level change, the amplitude of TH1 standing before and after typhoons is slightly different, while the maximum water level of TH2 and TH3 during typhoons is slightly underestimated, which may be due to sounding inaccuracy or lack of minute coast features such as codeheads.
In the foregoing embodiments, the descriptions of the embodiments are emphasized, and in part, not described or illustrated in any particular embodiment, reference is made to the related descriptions of other embodiments.
The content of the information interaction and the execution process between the devices/units and the like is based on the same conception as the method embodiment of the present invention, and specific functions and technical effects brought by the content can be referred to in the method embodiment section, and will not be described herein.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, only the above-described division of the functional units and modules is illustrated, and in practical application, the above-described functional distribution may be performed by different functional units and modules according to needs, i.e. the internal structure of the apparatus is divided into different functional units or modules to perform all or part of the above-described functions. The functional units and modules in the embodiment may be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units may be integrated in one unit, where the integrated units may be implemented in a form of hardware or a form of a software functional unit. In addition, the specific names of the functional units and modules are only for distinguishing from each other, and are not used for limiting the protection scope of the present invention. For specific working processes of the units and modules in the system, reference may be made to corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments.
According to an embodiment of the present application, there is also provided a computer apparatus including: at least one processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the at least one processor, which when executed by the processor performs the steps of any of the various method embodiments described above.
Embodiments of the present application also provide a computer readable storage medium storing a computer program which, when executed by a processor, performs the steps of the respective method embodiments described above.
The embodiment of the application also provides an information data processing terminal, which is used for providing a user input interface to implement the steps in the method embodiments when being implemented on an electronic device, and the information data processing terminal is not limited to a mobile phone, a computer and a switch.
The embodiment of the application also provides a server, which is used for realizing the steps in the method embodiments when being executed on the electronic device and providing a user input interface.
Embodiments of the present application also provide a computer program product which, when run on an electronic device, causes the electronic device to perform the steps of the method embodiments described above.
The integrated units, if implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as stand-alone products, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the present application may implement all or part of the flow of the method of the above embodiments, and may be implemented by a computer program to instruct related hardware, where the computer program may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the computer program may implement the steps of each of the method embodiments described above. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code which may be in source code form, object code form, executable file or some intermediate form etc. The computer readable medium may include at least: any entity or device capable of carrying computer program code to a photographing device/terminal apparatus, recording medium, computer Memory, read-Only Memory (ROM), random access Memory (Random Access Memory, RAM), electrical carrier signals, telecommunications signals, and software distribution media. Such as a U-disk, removable hard disk, magnetic or optical disk, etc.
While the invention has been described with respect to what is presently considered to be the most practical and preferred embodiments, it is to be understood that the invention is not limited to the disclosed embodiments, but on the contrary, is intended to cover various modifications, equivalents, and alternatives falling within the spirit and scope of the invention.
Claims (7)
1. The typhoon wind field simulation method for improving the accuracy of the ocean model is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, selecting Young and Sobey typhoon empirical formulas in an MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool in a wind field during typhoon to construct a typhoon wind field model;
s2, constructing a typhoon wind field through a MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool, defining a region with the wind speed of the constructed typhoon wind field less than that of an ERA5 wind field as a region far away from the typhoon center, comparing the wind speed of the ERA5 wind field with that of a constructed typhoon wind field model by utilizing a programming discrimination mode, and selecting ERA5 wind field data in a region with the wind speed of the constructed wind field less than that of the ERA5 wind field; the outer side of the cyclone wind field reconstructed by the MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool is in smooth transition with the ERA5 wind field, and when the wind direction difference exceeds 90 degrees, gradual change wind direction correction is carried out on the ERA5 wind field according to the space-time change trend characteristic;
S3, according to the research area and the typhoon path position, using an empirical coefficient c 0 、c 1 And epsilon 1 Calculating the maximum wind speed radius, and acquiring a key coefficient of the typhoon structure of the wind field according to the calculated maximum wind speed radius;
s4, acquiring wind speed and wind direction of a complete typhoon wind field and resolved east component u and north component v according to the required range of a research area;
in step S1, constructing the collected actual typhoon parameters into a typhoon wind field by using a Young and Sobey typhoon empirical formula; the actual typhoon parameters include: the difference between the central air pressure and the peripheral air pressure, the maximum wind speed radius, the typhoon center moving speed, the direction and the angle of a typhoon moving path and the distance from an observation point to the typhoon center;
in step S3, the wind farm typhoon structure key coefficients include: wind eye longitude, wind eye latitude, maximum wind speed V max The typhoon center air pressure, the ambient air pressure and the center air pressure difference delta p.
2. The typhoon wind farm simulation method for improving the accuracy of the ocean model according to claim 1, wherein in the step S1, the collection of the water depth topography data, the wind farm data and the collection of typhoon trajectory data of the position of the wind eyes, the central air pressure, the ambient air pressure and the maximum wind speed per hour used in the construction of the typhoon wind farm model are also required before the construction of the typhoon wind farm model.
3. Typhoon wind field simulation method for improving ocean model precision as claimed in claim 1In step S3, an empirical coefficient c is used according to the study area and typhoon path position 0 、c 1 And epsilon 1 In the calculation of the maximum wind speed radius, the maximum wind speed radius R max Is obviously inversely related to the central air pressure difference delta p and is relative to the maximum wind speed radius R max And empirical linear model calculation of the center air pressure difference Δp:
In R max ＝c 0 +c 1 Δp+ε 1
wherein R is max For maximum wind speed radius, c 0 ，c 1 ，ε 1 Are all empirical coefficients, epsilon 1 As a random error term, Δp is the center air pressure difference.
4. A typhoon wind farm simulation method for improving accuracy of a sea model according to claim 1, wherein in step S4, accurate positions of the decade wind and the twelve-stage wind are obtained from the obtained complete typhoon wind farm.
5. The typhoon wind farm simulation method for improving the accuracy of the ocean model according to claim 4, wherein the wind speed of the decade wind ring is 24.5m/s-28.4m/s, and the wind speed of the twelve wind rings is 32.7m/s-36.9m/s.
6. A typhoon farm simulation system for improving the accuracy of a ocean model, characterized in that a typhoon farm simulation method for improving the accuracy of the ocean model according to any one of claims 1 to 5 is implemented, the system comprising:
The typhoon wind field construction module (1) is used for constructing a typhoon wind field model by selecting Young and Sobey typhoon empirical formulas in an MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generation tool in the typhoon period;
the ERA5 wind field gradual change wind direction filling module (2) is used for constructing typhoon wind through the MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool, defining a region with the wind speed smaller than that of the ERA5 wind field as a region far away from the center of the typhoon, comparing the wind speed of the ERA5 wind field with that of a constructed typhoon wind field model in a programming mode, and selecting ERA5 wind field data in a region with the wind speed smaller than that of the ERA5 wind field; the outer side of the cyclone wind field reconstructed by the MIKE 21 cyclone wind field generating tool is in smooth transition with the ERA5 wind field, and when the wind direction difference exceeds 90 degrees, gradual change wind direction correction is carried out on the ERA5 wind field according to the space-time change trend characteristic;
the key coefficient acquisition module (3) of the typhoon structure of the wind field is used for utilizing the empirical coefficient c according to the research area and the typhoon path position 0 、c 1 And epsilon 1 Calculating the maximum wind speed radius, and acquiring a key coefficient of the typhoon structure of the wind field according to the calculated maximum wind speed radius;
and the complete typhoon wind field acquisition module (4) is used for acquiring the wind speed and the wind direction of the complete typhoon wind field and the resolved east component u and the resolved north component v according to the required range of the research area.
7. The typhoon field simulation system for improving the accuracy of the ocean model according to claim 6, wherein a typhoon field simulator for improving the accuracy of the ocean model is built by using the system, and the positions of the ten-stage wind ring and the twelve-stage wind ring are obtained.
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| 双台风下江苏沿海的波浪数值模拟;聂永强;陈鹏超;;水道港口(第02期);全文 * |
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