CN116562498A - Urban village water resource bearing capacity evaluation method and system - Google Patents
Urban village water resource bearing capacity evaluation method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a method and a system for evaluating the bearing capacity of water resources of villages and towns in an urban area, which are used for determining an index system for evaluating the bearing capacity of the water resources of the villages and towns in the urban area from four aspects of economic development, social life, ecological environment and water resources, and calculating comprehensive weights of evaluation indexes by combining a combined weight method with an improved entropy weight method and an analytic hierarchy process based on an index scale, thereby improving the scientificity and rationality of an evaluation result. Aiming at the contradiction between urban construction and economic development demands, large water resource consumption, low water saving level and insufficient water environment bearing capacity, the invention collects the related data of a water resource bearing capacity system, builds a water resource bearing capacity system dynamics model and provides a reference basis for related departments in planning urban development and setting up economic development targets.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of ecological resource environments, and particularly relates to a method and a system for evaluating the bearing capacity of village and town water resources in an urban area.
Background
At present, the research on the bearing capacity of village and town scale water resources is focused by more students, for example Duan Xuejun, a village construction resource environment bearing measuring and calculating system is constructed by adopting a short plate principle, wang Xiaobo, a Zhangye, a Zhangzhou area and a village water resource bearing capacity evaluation index set is constructed on the village scale, and the village and town water resource bearing capacity is evaluated from aspects of production, life and ecology. However, the water resource bearing capacity research is mostly in the river basin or regional scale, the water resource and water environment bearing capacity research on the small scale of villages and towns is not yet available in China, and the comprehensive requirements of the green and suitable living construction of villages and towns on the continuous utilization of water resources and the quality protection of water environment are oriented, so that the water resource bearing capacity research on the small scale of villages and towns is focused.
For this reason, this patent is filed.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems in the prior art, the invention provides an urban village and town water resource bearing capacity evaluation method and an urban village and town water resource bearing capacity evaluation system.
In order to achieve the technical purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the urban village water resource bearing capacity evaluation method comprises the following steps:
(1) The method comprises the steps of combining main problems faced by urban village water resource bearing capacity and economic and social coordinated development in the urban area, and determining indexes for evaluating the urban village water resource bearing capacity from four aspects of economic development, social life, ecological environment and water resource;
(2) Respectively carrying out objective weight calculation on the urban water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes determined in the step (1) by adopting an entropy weight method to obtain objective weight values of each index;
(3) Performing subjective weight calculation on the urban water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes determined in the step (1) by adopting an analytic hierarchy process to obtain subjective weight values of the indexes;
(4) Respectively carrying out combination calculation on the objective weight value of each index obtained in the step (2) and the subjective weight value of each index obtained in the step (3) by adopting a combination weighting method to obtain a comprehensive weight value of each index;
(5) And (3) constructing a comprehensive evaluation model according to the comprehensive weight value of each index obtained in the step (4), and substituting standardized index data to obtain a comprehensive evaluation index of the water resource bearing capacity.
Furthermore, in the step (1), the main problem faced by the coordinated development of the water resource bearing capacity and the economical society of villages and towns in the urban area is that the urban area is rapidly and generally enters a socioeconomic high-quality development transformation stage, but the contradiction between urban construction and economic development requirements and the water resource consumption are large, the water saving level is not high, and the water environment bearing capacity is insufficient is still a constraint factor for limiting the sustainable development of the area; the villages and towns mainly refer to villages, the villages are changing from rural economy to small town economy, the ecological environment protection is affected by industrial development, and the social life style is continuously changed.
Further, in step (1), the index includes: the urban rate, the first industrial GDP ratio, the third industrial GDP ratio, the average human GDP, the average value of the ten thousand yuan industrial increase water consumption, the population density, the average income of peasants, the average human water consumption, the ratio of domestic water to environmental treatment investment, the ecological environment water supplementing amount, the industrial wastewater discharge standard rate, the water function area water quality standard rate, the annual precipitation amount, the average human water resource amount, the irrigation water effective utilization coefficient, the water production modulus, the surface water resource amount and the water resource development utilization rate.
Further, in the step (2), the entropy weighting method specifically includes the following steps:
i: performing standardization processing on all indexes by adopting a range method to obtain a standardized value Y of each index ij The specific formula is as follows:
wherein X is ij J index value of the i-th year; minX i The minimum value of all indexes in the specified ith year; maxX i Maximum value of all indexes for the specified ith year;
II: according to the normalized value Y ij Calculating the information entropy E of each index by adopting a calculation formula of the information entropy i The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The specific formula is as follows:
wherein X is ij J index value of the i-th year; p is p ij The specific gravity of the index in the ith year under the jth index;
III: calculating objective weights of all indexes
According to the information entropy E i Calculating the objective weight value omega of each index si The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The specific formula is as follows:
further, in the step (3), the analytic hierarchy process specifically includes the following steps:
(1) constructing a pairwise judgment matrix K of indexes; the specific formula is as follows:
K＝(u ij ) n×n
wherein: u (u) ij A scale value for evaluating the importance relationship between the index i and the index j;
(2) calculating to obtain the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the judgment matrix K max Calculate the consistency index I C The specific calculation formula is as follows:
wherein I is C Is a consistency index; n is the order of the judgment matrix; lambda (lambda) max Judging the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix;
(3) for consistency index I C Random consistency test is carried out, and consistency proportion R is calculated C The calculation formula is as follows:
wherein R is C Is a consistency ratio; i R Is a consistency check index;
when R is C <When 0.1, the judgment matrix is considered to meet the consistency requirement, and index subjective weight calculation can be performed; otherwise, adjusting the judgment matrix K until the judgment matrix meets the consistency requirement;
(4) according to the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the judgment matrix K max Feature vector W corresponding to the feature vector max Normalizing the maximum characteristic value to obtain a subjective weight value omega of each index ai The specific formula is as follows:
KW＝γW
wherein: gamma is the characteristic value of the judgment matrix K; w is the eigenvector corresponding to the eigenvalue.
Further, in the step (4), a specific calculation formula of the combined weighting method is as follows:
wherein omega is i Is the comprehensive weight of the index; omega ai Subjective weight value of index; omega si An objective weight value of the index; n is the total number of indexes.
In step (5), according to the comprehensive weight value omega of each index i Constructing a comprehensive evaluation model by substituting the standardized index data d ij The comprehensive evaluation index of the water resource bearing capacity is obtained, and the specific calculation formula is as follows:
in U ij The target comprehensive evaluation index of the ith year; d, d ij Is an evaluation index after standardization; omega ij Is a standardized index d ij Is a comprehensive weight of (2); n is the total number of indexes. Wherein dij is the normalized value YIj in the above step I.
Based on the evaluation system of the urban village water resource bearing capacity evaluation method, according to indexes of the urban village water resource bearing capacity evaluation method and related data calculation methods, a model is built by utilizing system dynamics software Vens im to perform simulation prediction, the influence of the change of the indexes on the urban village water resource bearing capacity is focused, and long-term, dynamic and strategic analysis is performed on the water resource bearing capacity.
Further, the evaluation system sequentially comprises a data storage module, a modeling module and a calculation module;
the data storage module comprises four subsystems of economic development, social life, ecological environment and water resource, and the economic development subsystem comprises the following indexes: the urban rate, the first industrial GDP duty ratio, the third industrial GDP duty ratio, the average GDP and the ten thousand industrial increment value water consumption; the social life subsystem comprises the following indexes: population density, average income of farmers, average water consumption and domestic water ratio; the ecological environment subsystem comprises the following indexes: environmental treatment investment, ecological environment water supplementing amount, industrial wastewater discharge standard reaching rate and water quality standard reaching rate of water functional areas; the water resource subsystem comprises the following indexes: annual precipitation, water resource quantity per person, irrigation water effective utilization coefficient, water production modulus, surface water resource quantity and water resource development utilization rate;
the modeling module manually selects scheme variables according to the index and related data calculation method, evaluates the structure and the function of the system, determines causal relationship among the variables, and draws a cause and effect loop diagram; constructing a model by using system dynamics software Vens im, and determining simulation variables in the system dynamics model;
the calculation module acquires corresponding data sources from the data storage module, determines a system equation by adopting expert evaluation and the existing data reference mode, operates a system dynamics model, acquires a model calculation result and carries out simulation analysis.
Preferably, in the modeling module, the time boundary of model simulation is 2013 to 2035, and the total model simulation time is 23 years; the 2013-2020 is taken as a period for model construction and model verification; 2021-2035 are used as the periods of dynamic simulation of the model, and the time interval of the model simulation is one year.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
(1) The invention constructs an urban village and town water resource bearing capacity evaluation index system based on a logic framework of water resource, economy, social life and ecological environment, optimizes the evaluation index system by adopting a principal component analysis method, and finally obtains 19 evaluation index factors preferably. And then, the combined weight method is combined with an improved entropy weight method and an analytic hierarchy process based on an index scale, the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index is calculated, the comprehensive evaluation index is calculated to evaluate the current situation of the water resource bearing capacity, and the scientificity and rationality of an evaluation result are improved.
(2) The invention selects an improved entropy weighting method as an objective weighting method, and carries out objective weighting value calculation on a village and town water resource bearing capacity evaluation index system in the urban area. When the entropy weight E i approaches 1 infinitely in the traditional entropy weight method, the slight change of the entropy value can cause the obvious change of the entropy weight, so that the index weight calculation result has objectivity; the improved entropy weight method is improved on the basis of the entropy weight method, and the capability of keeping the gap of the traditional entropy weight method on the basis of overcoming the defects of the traditional entropy weight method.
(3) The analytic hierarchy process based on the index scale is improved on the basis of the traditional analytic hierarchy process, and the index scale with better sealing property and consistency is adopted to replace the traditional 1-9 scale, so that the analytic hierarchy process based on the index scale can better accord with the quantization result of people for comparing things, and the calculation result of the analytic hierarchy process is more fit with the actual situation.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below.
FIG. 1 is a graph of comprehensive evaluation change trend of water resource bearing capacity;
FIG. 2 is a graph of the trend of the load bearing capacity of each subsystem;
FIG. 3 is a block diagram of a water resource load-bearing capacity system;
FIG. 4 is a graph showing the results of comparing the simulated values obtained in the evaluation system of example 2 with the actual values for the ten thousand industrial increments;
FIG. 5 is a comparison of the simulated and actual values obtained in the evaluation system of example 2 for total water usage;
FIG. 6 is a comparison of the simulated and actual values obtained by GDP in the evaluation system of example 2;
FIG. 7 is a comparison of simulated values and actual values obtained in the evaluation system of example 2 for ecological water;
FIG. 8 is a comparison of the simulated values and the actual values obtained in the evaluation system of example 2 for agricultural irrigation water;
fig. 9 is a comparison result of the simulation value and the actual value obtained in the evaluation system of example 2 for the total human mouth.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the technical solutions of the present invention will be described in detail below. It will be apparent that the described embodiments are only some, but not all, embodiments of the invention. All other embodiments, based on the examples herein, which are within the scope of the invention as defined by the claims, will be within the scope of the invention as defined by the claims.
In some more specific embodiments, the method for evaluating the bearing capacity of the water resource of the villages and towns in the urban area comprises the following steps:
(1) The method comprises the steps of combining main problems faced by urban village water resource bearing capacity and economic and social coordinated development in the urban area, and determining indexes for evaluating the urban village water resource bearing capacity from four aspects of economic development, social life, ecological environment and water resource;
(2) Respectively carrying out objective weight calculation on the urban water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes determined in the step (1) by adopting an entropy weight method to obtain objective weight values of each index;
(3) Performing subjective weight calculation on the urban water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes determined in the step (1) by adopting an analytic hierarchy process to obtain subjective weight values of the indexes;
(4) Respectively carrying out combination calculation on the objective weight value of each index obtained in the step (2) and the subjective weight value of each index obtained in the step (3) by adopting a combination weighting method to obtain a comprehensive weight value of each index;
(5) And (3) constructing a comprehensive evaluation model according to the comprehensive weight value of each index obtained in the step (4), and substituting standardized index data to obtain a comprehensive evaluation index of the water resource bearing capacity.
The technical scheme of the invention is further described in detail below through examples and with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the examples are chosen to illustrate the invention only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
Example 1
Kokumi street Zhou Langcun problem of water resources in a typical village
The embodiment provides a method for evaluating the bearing capacity of village and town water resources in a urbanization area, which comprises the following steps:
(1) Combining the main problems faced by urban village water resource bearing capacity and economic and social coordinated development, constructing and determining indexes of urban village water resource bearing capacity evaluation from four aspects of economic development, social life, ecological environment and water resource, optimizing an evaluation index system by adopting a principal component analysis method, and finally optimizing 19 evaluation index factors;
the principal component analysis method is a dimension reduction processing method, and can achieve the purposes of dimension reduction and extraction of relatively important principal components on the premise of minimum information loss, so that the problem analysis is simpler and more convenient, and the obtained result has stronger scientificity. The main calculation steps of the method are as follows:
1) Standardized processing of index raw data
In order to eliminate the influence of the difference and the magnitude of the dimension of the index data, the original index data is subjected to dimensionless treatment. The standard processing is carried out on the original index data by adopting the range method, and the range method is a statistical analysis method for carrying out the standard processing on the data and can give consideration to both positive indexes and negative indexes. The formula is as follows:
wherein: xij is the raw data collected; aij is the normalized data; i is the evaluation year; j is an evaluation index.
2) Calculating a correlation coefficient matrix using a normalized data matrix
R＝(r ij ) n×m Wherein
Wherein: r is a correlation coefficient matrix; m is the total number of evaluation indexes; n is the total number of evaluation years; aij is the normalized data; is the mean value of the j index; is the mean of the ith year.
3) And calculating the eigenvalue and eigenvector of the correlation coefficient matrix R, wherein the formula is as follows:
|R-λI m |＝0
wherein: lambda is a characteristic value; im is a feature vector;
4) The number of principal components is determined by the contribution rate and the cumulative contribution rate, and the formula is as follows:
principal component analysis results analysis: and optimizing a water resource bearing capacity index system of a kokumi street Zhou Langcun in 2013-2020 by adopting a principal component analysis method, so as to construct a water resource bearing capacity evaluation index system. Analytical calculations were performed using software SPSS 19.0. The data (2013-2020) after the standardized treatment of 26 water resource bearing capacity evaluation index factors are input into SPSS19.0, and a correlation coefficient matrix, a characteristic value and accumulated contribution rate, a factor load matrix and a factor load matrix obtained by rotating the index factors by a maximum variance method of the evaluation indexes are calculated, wherein the results are shown in the following tables 1, 2 and 3:
TABLE 1 initial eigenvalue and variance contribution ratio
It can be seen that the cumulative contribution rate of the first four factors reaches 97.699% and meets the requirement of more than 85%, so that the first four factors are selected as main components to reflect the water resource bearing capacity condition.
TABLE 2 factor loading matrix
TABLE 3 factor loading matrix after rotation
The variance contribution ratio of the four principal components and the magnitude of each index corresponding coefficient in the feature vector corresponding to each principal component are comprehensively considered, 8, 7, 2 and 2 index factors are respectively extracted from the four principal components, and 19 index factors are summed.
The 19 evaluation indexes are as follows: the urban utilization rate, the first industrial GDP duty ratio, the third industrial GDP duty ratio, the average GDP, the average value of the ten thousand yuan industrial increase water consumption, the population density, the average income of farmers, the average water consumption, the ratio of domestic water, the environmental treatment investment, the ecological environment water supplementing amount, the industrial wastewater discharge standard rate, the water quality standard rate of water functional areas, the annual precipitation amount, the average water resource amount, the irrigation water effective utilization coefficient, the water production modulus, the surface water resource amount and the water resource development utilization rate;
(2) Respectively carrying out objective weight calculation on the urban water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes determined in the step (1) by adopting an entropy weight method to obtain objective weight values of each index;
(3) Performing subjective weight calculation on the urban water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes determined in the step (1) by adopting an analytic hierarchy process to obtain subjective weight values of the indexes;
(4) Respectively carrying out combination calculation on the objective weight value of each index obtained in the step (2) and the subjective weight value of each index obtained in the step (3) by adopting a combination weighting method to obtain a comprehensive weight value of each index;
(5) And (3) constructing a comprehensive evaluation model according to the comprehensive weight value of each index obtained in the step (4), and substituting standardized index data to obtain a comprehensive evaluation index of the water resource bearing capacity.
In the step (1), the main problems faced by the coordinated development of the water resource bearing capacity and the economy and society of villages and towns in the urban area are that the quick urban area generally enters a social economy high-quality development transformation stage, but the contradiction between urban construction and economy development needs, large water resource consumption, low water saving level and insufficient water environment bearing capacity is caused; villages and towns are villages, the villages are changing from rural economy to small town economy, the ecological environment protection is affected by industrial development, and the social life style is continuously changed.
In the step (2), the entropy weight method specifically includes the following steps:
i: the standard treatment is carried out on all indexes by adopting a range method, wherein the range method is a statistical analysis method for carrying out the standard treatment on data, and can consider both positive indexes and negative indexes, and calculate the standard value Y of each index ij The specific formula is as follows:
wherein X is ij J index value of the i-th year; minX i The minimum value of all indexes in the specified ith year; maxX i Maximum value of all indexes for the specified ith year;
II: according to the normalized value Y ij Calculating the information entropy E of each index by adopting a calculation formula of the information entropy i The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The specific formula is as follows:
wherein X is ij J index value of the i-th year; p is p ij The specific gravity of the index in the ith year under the jth index;
calculating the information entropy of each index as E 1 ，E 2 ，…，E k 。
III: calculating objective weights of all indexes
According to the information entropy E i Calculating the objective weight value omega of each index si The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The specific formula is as follows:
substituting the raw data of 8 years of index of the kokumi street Zhou Langcun 2013-2020, respectively carrying out standardization treatment, calculating the information entropy of each index factor, and finally calculating the objective weight of the water resource bearing capacity evaluation index system, wherein the objective weight is shown in Table 4.
TABLE 4 Objective weighting of Water resource load bearing evaluation index System
The index scale establishes a new weight scale based on the principle of 'equidistant grading, equal ratio assignment', and the general formula is:
u＝a n ＝1.316 n (n＝0，1，...，8)
in the embodiment, the analytic hierarchy process based on the index scale is improved on the basis of the traditional analytic hierarchy process, and the index scale with better sealing property and consistency is adopted to replace the traditional 1-9 scale, so that the analytic hierarchy process based on the index scale can better accord with the quantization result of people for object comparison, and the analytic hierarchy process calculation result is more fit with the actual situation.
In the step (3), the analytic hierarchy process specifically includes the following steps:
(1) constructing a pairwise judgment matrix K of indexes based on an index scale; the specific formula is as follows:
K＝(u ij ) nxn
wherein: u (u) ij For evaluating the importance relation scale value between the index i and the index j, taking the value according to a table 5;
table 5 judgment matrix Scale
Note that: if the ratio of the importance of factor i to factor j is u ij Then the ratio of the importance of factor j to factor i is u ji ＝1/u ij 。
(2) Obtaining the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the judgment matrix K through the calculation of the step (1) max Calculate the consistency index I C And (3) carrying out random consistency check on the obtained product, and if the obtained product meets the requirement, carrying out next calculation. Otherwise, adjusting the judgment matrix K until the judgment matrix meets the consistency requirement; consistency index I C The specific calculation formula is as follows:
wherein I is C Is a consistency index; n is the order of the judgment matrix; lambda (lambda) max Judging the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix;
the random consistency test index is shown in table 6:
TABLE 6 index scale random consistency check index
(3) For consistency index I C Random consistency test is carried out, and consistency proportion R is calculated C The calculation formula is as follows:
wherein R is C Is a consistency ratio; i R Is a consistency check index;
when R is C <When 0.1, the judgment matrix is considered to meet the consistency requirement, and index subjective weight calculation can be performed; otherwise, adjusting the judgment matrix K until the judgment matrix meets consistencyRequirements;
(4) calculating subjective weight value, and calculating the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the judgment matrix K through Matlab2016 software max Feature vector W corresponding to the feature vector max Normalizing the maximum characteristic value to obtain a subjective weight value omega of each index ai The specific formula is as follows:
KW＝γW
wherein: gamma is the characteristic value of the judgment matrix K; w is the eigenvector corresponding to the eigenvalue.
The consistency ratios of the four criterion layers of the water resource bearing capacity target layer, the economic subsystem, the ecological environment subsystem, the social life subsystem and the water resource subsystem are sequentially 0.0267, 0.0474, 0.0267, 0.0192 and 0.0325 after the judgment matrix is repeatedly adjusted, all meet the consistency requirement, and the final result is shown in Table 7.
TABLE 7 subjective weighting of Water resource load bearing evaluation index System
The embodiment adopts a combined weighting method to comprehensively improve the entropy weighting method and an analytic hierarchy process based on an index scale. In the step (4), a specific calculation formula of the combined weighting method is as follows:
wherein omega is i Is the comprehensive weight of the index; omega ai Subjective weight value of index; omega si An objective weight value of the index; n is the total number of indexes.
And calculating the comprehensive weight value of the kokumi street Zhou Langcun water resource bearing capacity evaluation index system by adopting a combined weight method, wherein the calculation result is shown in Table 8.
TABLE 8 comprehensive weights for Water resource load bearing evaluation index System
In step (5), according to the comprehensive weight value omega of each index i ，(ω i1 、ω i2 、ω i3 、ω i4 ....ω ij ) Constructing a comprehensive evaluation model by substituting the standardized index data d ij The comprehensive evaluation index of the water resource bearing capacity is obtained, and the specific calculation formula is as follows:
in U ij The target comprehensive evaluation index of the ith year; d, d ij Is an evaluation index after standardization; omega ij Is a standardized index d ij Is a comprehensive weight of (2); n is the total number of indexes. dij is the normalized value Yij in step i.
The invention divides the water resource bearing capacity level into five grades, see table 9. Based on the water resource bearing capacity evaluation index system and the comprehensive weight thereof, the comprehensive evaluation index is calculated, and the final result is shown in Table 10 and FIG. 1.
TABLE 9 comprehensive evaluation index grading Standard for Water resource bearing Capacity
Table 10 comprehensive evaluation index of Water resource carrying Capacity
From tables 9-10 and fig. 1, it can be seen that the overall level of rural water resource load capacity is still at a low level.
And calculating comprehensive evaluation indexes of four subsystems of the water resource, social life, economy and ecological environment of the rural water resource bearing capacity evaluation index system in 2013-2020, as shown in figure 2.
Example 2
The embodiment provides an evaluation system, which sequentially comprises a data storage module, a modeling module and a calculation module;
the data storage module comprises four subsystems of economic development, social life, ecological environment and water resource, and the economic development subsystem comprises the following indexes: the urban rate, the first industrial GDP duty ratio, the third industrial GDP duty ratio, the average GDP and the ten thousand industrial increment value water consumption; the social life subsystem comprises the following indexes: population density, average income of farmers, average water consumption and domestic water ratio; the ecological environment subsystem comprises the following indexes: environmental treatment investment, ecological environment water supplementing amount, industrial wastewater discharge standard reaching rate and water quality standard reaching rate of water functional areas; the water resource subsystem comprises the following indexes: annual precipitation, water resource quantity per person, irrigation water effective utilization coefficient, water production modulus, surface water resource quantity and water resource development utilization rate;
the modeling module evaluates the structure and the function of the system according to the index and the related data calculation method, manually selects scheme variables, determines causal relationships among the variables, and draws a cause and effect loop diagram; constructing a model by using system dynamics software Vens im, and determining simulation variables in the system dynamics model;
and the calculation module acquires a corresponding data source from the data storage module, determines a system equation by adopting expert evaluation and the existing data reference mode, operates a system dynamics model, acquires a model calculation result and performs simulation analysis.
Construction of modeling modules
1. Model boundary and structure
1. Model boundary
On the space scale, the invention takes the total area of villages and towns district as 262.22km 2 As the system boundary of the current model.
The time boundary of the model simulation is 2013 to 2035, and the total model simulation time is 23 years. The 2013-2020 is taken as a period for model construction and model verification; 2021-2035 are used as the periods of dynamic simulation of the model, and the time interval of the model simulation is one year.
2. Model structure
By plotting the system block diagram, the feedback loops and interaction mechanisms between the subsystems in the system dynamics model are facilitated to be analyzed. By analyzing the logic framework of village 'ecological environment-economy-social life-water resource', a village water resource bearing capacity system structure block diagram is built, and is shown in fig. 3.
3. Model subsystem analysis
1. Water resource subsystem analysis
According to the current situation of village water resource development and utilization, the sustainable development and utilization potential of local water resources is fully considered, the water resource development and utilization rate = total water consumption/total water resource amount is selected to describe the bearing capacity of a village water resource subsystem, a water resource subsystem structure flow diagram is shown in table 11, and the variable description of the water resource subsystem is shown in the table 11.
TABLE 11 Water resource subsystem variable description
Note that: "L" refers to a state variable, "C" refers to a constant variable, "A" refers to an auxiliary variable, "R" refers to a rate variable; l, C, A, R in the following tables are referred to by the same reference numerals as Table 8.
2. Economic subsystem analysis
The economic subsystem is the core of the water resource-ecological environment-social life-economic system, is a main bearing object of the water resource bearing capacity system, and reflects the economic bearing capacity of the village and town water resource bearing capacity system for urban development and industrial development of the area.
(1) Economic subsystem architecture flow graph
The main quantitative indexes of the socioeconomic subsystem are GDP, ten thousand yuan industrial increment value, agricultural irrigation water, irrigation water effective utilization coefficient, one-product GDP, two-product GDP, three-product GDP and the like. Because of the lack of data, the village and town forests, the pastures, the fishes and the livestock are found to have little water consumption, the influence is small, and the water consumption is not considered in the simulation. The economic subsystem variables are described in Table 12.
TABLE 12 economic subsystem variable description
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3. Ecological environment subsystem analysis
(1) Ecological environment subsystem architecture flow graph
The main quantization indexes of the ecological environment subsystem are green land area of the town area, water consumption quota of the green land, ecological environment water demand, ecological water consumption and the like in the river channel. The description of the variables of the ecological environment subsystem is shown in table 13.
TABLE 13 ecological environment subsystem variable description
4. Social life subsystem analysis
(1) Social life subsystem structure flow diagram
The main quantitative indexes of the social life subsystem are domestic water, average water consumption rate of residents, population change rate, population total amount, town rate, average water consumption and the like. The general population is selected as the state variable and the population change as the rate variable. The social subsystem variable description is presented in table 14.
Table 14 social life subsystem variable description
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4. Dynamic model of water resource bearing capacity system
1. Causal relationship diagram of dynamic model of water resource bearing capacity system
The four subsystems are integrated, a dynamic model of a village and town water resource bearing capacity system in a typical urbanization area of the eastern urbanization area is built, a system causal relationship diagram is built, and total water demand, ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption and water resource development and utilization rate reasons are obtained.
2. Urban village water resource bearing capacity system dynamics model total flow diagram
The urban village and town water resource bearing capacity system dynamics model constructed in the embodiment comprises 65 variables in total. Including 6 state variables, 6 rate variables, 38 auxiliary variables, and 15 table functions.
5. Model inspection
The actual and simulated values of 2014-2020 were error analyzed, and the variables verified were ten thousand yuan industrial increment value, GDP, ecological water, agricultural irrigation water, total water consumption and population total, and the test results are shown in Table 15 and FIGS. 4-9.
Table 15 model historical test results versus error table
The above test results show that: the absolute value of the relative error of all other variables except the individual years of the individual parameters is less than 10%, wherein the relative error of the variables such as the ten thousand industrial increment value, GDP, population total amount, total water consumption and the like is within 10%, and the relative error is small; the relative error of the 2016-year analog value and the real value of the ecological water variable reaches 10.28%, but the relative error of the 2020-year analog value and the real value is less than 4%, which shows that the overall trend of the ecological water is in accordance with the actual situation and has reliability; the relative error of the simulated value and the actual value of the agricultural irrigation water in 2015 reaches 12.63%, but the fitting condition of the rest years is good, and the relative error of the simulated value and the actual value in 2020 is less than 7%, which indicates that the error is not representative, and the overall trend is still towards the actual condition and has reliability.
The inventor also combines the current evaluation result of the water resource bearing capacity of the kokumi street Zhou Langcun and the simulation result of the current development mode, respectively designs four development scenario modes of current development, rapid town, comprehensive water saving, ecological green development and the like, and carries out simulation analysis on the water resource bearing capacity of villages and towns under the four development scenario modes. By analyzing and researching the possible changes of different emphasis schemes to the future Jiang Ning street development trend, the development scene of the development strategy of the most suitable research area is found out, and then the related development suggestion for improving the water resource bearing capacity of the research area and promoting the sustainable development is found out.
The foregoing is merely illustrative of the present invention, and the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art will readily recognize that variations or substitutions are within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (10)
1. The urban village water resource bearing capacity evaluation method is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
(1) The method comprises the steps of combining main problems faced by urban village water resource bearing capacity and economic and social coordinated development in the urban area, and determining indexes for evaluating the urban village water resource bearing capacity from four aspects of economic development, social life, ecological environment and water resource;
(2) Respectively carrying out objective weight calculation on the urban water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes determined in the step (1) by adopting an entropy weight method to obtain objective weight values of each index;
(3) Performing subjective weight calculation on the urban water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes determined in the step (1) by adopting an analytic hierarchy process to obtain subjective weight values of the indexes;
(4) Respectively carrying out combination calculation on the objective weight value of each index obtained in the step (2) and the subjective weight value of each index obtained in the step (3) by adopting a combination weighting method to obtain a comprehensive weight value of each index;
(5) And (3) constructing a comprehensive evaluation model according to the comprehensive weight value of each index obtained in the step (4), and substituting standardized index data to obtain a comprehensive evaluation index of the water resource bearing capacity.
2. The method for evaluating the water resource bearing capacity of the villages and towns in the urban area according to claim 1, wherein in the step (1), the main problems faced by the coordinated development of the water resource bearing capacity and the economical society in the villages and towns in the urban area are that the rapid urban area generally enters a socioeconomic high-quality development transformation stage, but the urban construction and economic development requirements contradict with high water resource consumption, low water saving level and insufficient water environment bearing capacity; the villages and towns mainly refer to villages, the villages are changing from rural economy to small town economy, the ecological environment protection is affected by industrial development, and the social life style is continuously changed.
3. The method for evaluating the bearing capacity of water resources in villages and towns in urban areas according to claim 1, wherein in the step (1), the index comprises: the urban rate, the first industrial GDP ratio, the third industrial GDP ratio, the average human GDP, the average value of the ten thousand yuan industrial increase water consumption, the population density, the average income of peasants, the average human water consumption, the ratio of domestic water to environmental treatment investment, the ecological environment water supplementing amount, the industrial wastewater discharge standard rate, the water function area water quality standard rate, the annual precipitation amount, the average human water resource amount, the irrigation water effective utilization coefficient, the water production modulus, the surface water resource amount and the water resource development utilization rate.
4. The method for evaluating the bearing capacity of water resources in villages and towns in a urbanized area according to claim 1, wherein in the step (2), the entropy weight method specifically comprises the following steps:
i: performing standardization processing on all indexes by adopting a range method to obtain a standardized value Y of each index ij The specific formula is as follows:
wherein X is ij J index value of the i-th year; minX i The minimum value of all indexes in the specified ith year; maxX i Maximum value of all indexes for the specified ith year;
II: according to the normalized value Y ij Calculating the information entropy E of each index by adopting a calculation formula of the information entropy i The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The specific formula is as follows:
wherein X is ij J index value of the i-th year; p is p ij The specific gravity of the index in the ith year under the jth index;
III: calculating objective weights of all indexes
According to the information entropy E i Calculating the objective weight value omega of each index si The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The specific formula is as follows:
5. the method for evaluating the bearing capacity of water resources in villages and small towns in urban areas according to claim 1 or 4, wherein in the step (3), the analytic hierarchy process specifically comprises the following steps:
(1) constructing a pairwise judgment matrix K of indexes; the specific formula is as follows:
K＝(u ij ) n×n
wherein: u (u) ij A scale value for evaluating the importance relationship between the index i and the index j;
(2) calculating to obtain the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the judgment matrix K max Calculate the consistency index I C The specific calculation formula is as follows:
wherein I is C Is a consistency index; n is the order of the judgment matrix; lambda (lambda) max Judging the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix;
(3) for consistency index I C Random consistency test is carried out, and consistency proportion R is calculated C The calculation formula is as follows:
wherein R is C Is a consistency ratio; i R Is a consistency check index;
when R is C <When 0.1, the judgment matrix is considered to meet the consistency requirement, and index subjective weight calculation can be performed; otherwise, adjusting the judgment matrix K until the judgment matrix meets the consistency requirement;
(4) according to the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the judgment matrix K max Feature vector W corresponding to the feature vector max Normalizing the maximum characteristic value to obtain a subjective weight value omega of each index ai In particular, theThe formula is as follows:
KW＝γ W
wherein: gamma is the characteristic value of the judgment matrix K; w is the eigenvector corresponding to the eigenvalue.
6. The method for evaluating the bearing capacity of water resources in villages and towns in urban areas according to claim 5, wherein in the step (4), the specific calculation formula of the combined weighting method is as follows:
wherein omega is i Is the comprehensive weight of the index; omega ai Subjective weight value of index; omega si An objective weight value of the index; n is the total number of indexes.
7. The method for evaluating the water resource capacity of a urban village and town according to claim 6, wherein in step (5), the comprehensive weight value ω of each of said indexes is used i Constructing a comprehensive evaluation model by substituting the standardized index data d ij The comprehensive evaluation index of the water resource bearing capacity is obtained, and the specific calculation formula is as follows:
in U ij The target comprehensive evaluation index of the ith year; d, d ij Is an evaluation index after standardization; omega ij Is a standardized index d ij Is a comprehensive weight of (2); n is the total number of indexes.
8. The evaluation system based on the urban village and town water resource bearing capacity evaluation method according to any one of claims 1-7, wherein according to the index of the urban village and town water resource bearing capacity evaluation method and the related data calculation method, a model is built by using system dynamics software vensims to perform simulation prediction, the influence of the change of the index on the urban village and town water resource bearing capacity is focused, and long-term, dynamic and strategic analysis is performed on the water resource bearing capacity.
9. The assessment system of claim 8, wherein the assessment system comprises, in order, a data storage module, a modeling module, and a computing module;
the data storage module comprises four subsystems of economic development, social life, ecological environment and water resource, and the economic development subsystem comprises the following indexes: the urban rate, the first industrial GDP duty ratio, the third industrial GDP duty ratio, the average GDP and the ten thousand industrial increment value water consumption; the social life subsystem comprises the following indexes: population density, average income of farmers, average water consumption and domestic water ratio; the ecological environment subsystem comprises the following indexes: environmental treatment investment, ecological environment water supplementing amount, industrial wastewater discharge standard reaching rate and water quality standard reaching rate of water functional areas; the water resource subsystem comprises the following indexes: annual precipitation, water resource quantity per person, irrigation water effective utilization coefficient, water production modulus, surface water resource quantity and water resource development utilization rate;
the modeling module manually selects scheme variables according to the index and related data calculation method, evaluates the structure and the function of the system, determines causal relationship among the variables, and draws a cause and effect loop diagram; constructing a model by using system dynamics software Vensim, and determining simulation variables in the system dynamics model;
the calculation module acquires corresponding data sources from the data storage module, determines a system equation by adopting expert evaluation and the existing data reference mode, operates a system dynamics model, acquires a model calculation result and carries out simulation analysis.
10. The assessment system according to claim 9, wherein in said modeling module, the time boundary of the model simulation is 2013 to 2035, for a total of 23 years of model simulation time; the 2013-2020 is taken as a period for model construction and model verification; 2021-2035 are used as the periods of dynamic simulation of the model, and the time interval of the model simulation is one year.
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