CN116542457A - Method and system for estimating spare part consumption quantity of electromechanical general parts - Google Patents

Method and system for estimating spare part consumption quantity of electromechanical general parts Download PDF

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CN116542457A
CN116542457A CN202310473742.5A CN202310473742A CN116542457A CN 116542457 A CN116542457 A CN 116542457A CN 202310473742 A CN202310473742 A CN 202310473742A CN 116542457 A CN116542457 A CN 116542457A
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consumption
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翟亚利
王玉琢
袁昊劼
李华
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Naval University of Engineering PLA
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Abstract

The invention provides a method and a system for estimating the consumption quantity of spare parts of an electromechanical universal part, comprising the following steps: the electromechanical general-purpose part consists of electromechanical units of the same type which are respectively arranged on a plurality of devices; according to the Weibull distribution obeyed by the service life of the electromechanical unit, the normal distribution obeyed by the maintenance time consumption of the electromechanical unit and the task time of each electromechanical unit, calculating a task success probability array and a guarantee success probability array of the consumption quantity of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit; according to the task success probability array and the guarantee success probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit, calculating the guarantee probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit, and calculating the probability corresponding to the consumption number of each candidate spare part; and according to the probability corresponding to the consumption number of each candidate spare part, the consumption number of the spare parts of the electromechanical universal part. The invention greatly reduces the estimation error of the spare part consumption quantity of the electromechanical universal part and improves the spare part guarantee capability of the electromechanical universal part.

Description

Method and system for estimating spare part consumption quantity of electromechanical general parts
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of maintenance of electromechanical parts, and particularly relates to a method and a system for estimating the consumption quantity of spare parts of an electromechanical general part.
Background
The spare parts are a material basis for developing maintenance work of the electromechanical parts, the consumption quantity of the spare parts is accurately estimated, and the spare parts are a premise for scientifically developing management work of a plurality of spare parts. For example, the turnover rate of the spare part purchasing funds can be estimated according to the estimated spare part consumption amount and the spare part price information; by combining the current spare part inventory information and estimating the spare part consumption quantity in a certain period of time, the subsequent spare part guarantee capability can be estimated, and then proper spare part supplement purchasing time, purchasing quantity and the like are scientifically selected.
The planned operating time of the electromechanical component over a period of time is referred to as the mission time. If the electromechanical component fails during the task, the electromechanical component needs to be maintained by using spare parts, and the maintenance time occupies the task time of the original work. The current estimation method for the spare part consumption number of the electromechanical parts usually ignores the influence of maintenance time, is only suitable for a scene with shorter maintenance time, and can bring larger estimation errors when the maintenance time is longer.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention aims to provide a method and a system for estimating the consumption quantity of spare parts of an electromechanical universal part, and aims to solve the problem that the error of the existing method for estimating the consumption quantity of spare parts of the electromechanical part is larger.
To achieve the above object, in a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for estimating the consumption number of spare parts of an electromechanical common part, including:
s101, obtaining consumption quantity of each candidate spare part according to the quantity of the spare parts of the electromechanical universal parts; the electromechanical general-purpose part consists of electromechanical units of the same type which are respectively arranged on a plurality of devices;
s102, calculating a task success probability array and a guarantee success probability array of the consumption quantity of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit according to the Weibull distribution obeyed by the service life of the electromechanical unit, the normal distribution obeyed by the maintenance time of the electromechanical unit and the task time of each electromechanical unit;
s103, calculating a guarantee probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit according to the task success probability array and the guarantee success probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit, and calculating the probability corresponding to the consumption number of each candidate spare part according to the guarantee probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit;
s104, calculating the spare part consumption number of the electromechanical universal part according to the probability corresponding to each candidate spare part consumption number.
In an alternative example, S102 specifically includes:
wherein r is the consumption number of candidate spare parts, i is the number of the electromechanical unit, T i For the task time of the ith electromechanical unit, u is the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution, v is the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, Γ (·) is a gamma function, a is the mean value of the Weibull distribution, b is the root variance of the Weibull distribution, c is the mean value of the normal distribution, d is the root variance of the normal distribution, ps i [r]Task success probability array ps corresponding to ith electromechanical unit i In (b) the (r+1) th element, pb i [r]The guarantee success probability array pb corresponding to the ith electromechanical unit i And (3) the (r+1) th element.
In an alternative example, S103 specifically includes:
s201, calculating a guarantee probability array pd of the consumption number of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit i ：
pd i ＝ps i +pb i
S202, performing convolution operation according to the guaranteed probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit to obtain a probability array pj:
pj＝pd 1 *pd 2 *…*pd n
wherein, the sign is convolution calculation, and n is the number of electromechanical units;
s203, the (r+1) th element pj [ r ] in the probability array pj is the probability corresponding to the consumption number r of the candidate spare parts.
In an alternative example, S104 specifically includes:
wherein m is the spare part number of the electromechanical universal part, and nx is the spare part consumption number of the electromechanical universal part.
In a second aspect, the present invention provides a spare part consumption amount estimation system for an electromechanical general-purpose part, comprising:
the candidate spare part consumption number obtaining module is used for obtaining each candidate spare part consumption number according to the spare part number of the electromechanical universal part; the electromechanical general-purpose part consists of electromechanical units of the same type which are respectively arranged on a plurality of devices;
the probability array calculation module is used for calculating a task success probability array and a guarantee success probability array of the consumption quantity of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit according to the Weibull distribution obeyed by the service life of the electromechanical unit, the normal distribution obeyed by the maintenance time consumption of the electromechanical unit and the task time of each electromechanical unit;
the probability calculation module is used for calculating a guarantee probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit according to the task success probability array and the guarantee success probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit, and calculating the probability corresponding to the consumption number of each candidate spare part according to the guarantee probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit;
and the spare part consumption number calculation module is used for calculating the spare part consumption number of the electromechanical universal part according to the probability corresponding to each candidate spare part consumption number.
In an alternative example, the probability array calculation module specifically calculates using the following formula:
wherein r is the consumption number of candidate spare parts, i is the number of the electromechanical unit, T i For the task time of the ith electromechanical unit, u is the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution, v is the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, Γ (·) is a gamma function, a is the mean value of the Weibull distribution, b is the root variance of the Weibull distribution, c is the mean value of the normal distribution, d is the root variance of the normal distribution, ps i [r]Task success probability array ps corresponding to ith electromechanical unit i In (b) the (r+1) th element, pb i [r]The guarantee success probability array pb corresponding to the ith electromechanical unit i And (3) the (r+1) th element.
In an alternative example, the probability calculation module specifically includes:
a guarantee probability array calculation unit for calculating a guarantee probability array pd of the consumption number of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit i ：
pd i ＝ps i +pb i
The convolution operation unit is used for carrying out convolution operation according to the guaranteed probability arrays of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit to obtain a probability array pj:
pj＝pd 1 *pd 2 *…*pd n
wherein, the sign is convolution calculation, and n is the number of electromechanical units;
the probability calculation unit is used for obtaining the probability that the (r+1) th element pj [ r ] in the probability array pj is the corresponding probability of the candidate spare part consumption quantity r.
In an alternative example, the spare part consumption calculation module specifically calculates using the following formula:
wherein m is the spare part number of the electromechanical universal part, and nx is the spare part consumption number of the electromechanical universal part.
In general, the above technical solutions conceived by the present invention have the following beneficial effects compared with the prior art:
the invention provides a method and a system for estimating the consumption quantity of spare parts of an electromechanical general part, which are used for calculating a task success probability array and a guarantee success probability array of the consumption quantity of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit according to the Weibull distribution obeyed by the service life of the electromechanical unit and the normal distribution obeyed by the maintenance time consumption of the electromechanical unit by obtaining the consumption quantity of each candidate spare part according to the number of the spare parts of the electromechanical general part, further calculating the probability corresponding to the consumption quantity of each candidate spare part, and finally estimating the consumption quantity of the spare parts of the electromechanical general part, thereby greatly reducing the estimation error of the consumption quantity of the spare parts of the electromechanical general part, being beneficial to improving the scientific rationality of the spare part management and improving the spare part guarantee capability of the electromechanical general part.
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FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for estimating the consumption number of spare parts of an electromechanical generic part;
FIG. 2 is a graph comparing the results of spare part consumption amounts obtained by the method and the simulation method provided by the invention;
fig. 3 is a diagram of the architecture of the system for estimating the consumption number of spare parts of the electromechanical universal parts provided by the invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the drawings and examples, in order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
The electromechanical common member refers to an electromechanical member of the same type mounted on a plurality of devices, respectively. The lifetime of electromechanical components is generally subject to the weibull distribution, such as: ball bearings, relays, switches, circuit breakers, magnetrons, potentiometers, gyroscopes, motors, aero-generators, batteries, hydraulic pumps, air turbine engines, gears, shutters, material fatigue pieces, and the like.
The electromechanical units of a known electromechanical common part are respectively arranged on n devices, namely the number of the electromechanical units is n, and the respective task time T is that i The life of the unit is subjected to Weibull distribution W (u, v), u is a scale parameter, v is a shape parameter, and the probability density function is Spare parts number m, repairing the spare parts after the spare parts are failed, wherein maintenance time is subjected to normal distribution N (c, d), c is maintenance time average, namely average value of the normal distribution, d is maintenance time root variance, namely root variance of the normal distribution, and probability density function is ∈ ->
The invention provides a method for estimating the consumption quantity of spare parts of an electromechanical universal part. Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for estimating the consumption number of spare parts of an electromechanical universal part, provided by the invention, as shown in fig. 1, the method includes:
s101, obtaining consumption quantity of each candidate spare part according to the quantity of the spare parts of the electromechanical universal parts; the electromechanical general-purpose part consists of electromechanical units of the same type which are respectively arranged on a plurality of devices;
s102, calculating a task success probability array and a guarantee success probability array of the consumption quantity of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit according to the Weibull distribution obeyed by the service life of the electromechanical unit, the normal distribution obeyed by the maintenance time of the electromechanical unit and the task time of each electromechanical unit;
s103, calculating a guarantee probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit according to the task success probability array and the guarantee success probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit, and calculating the probability corresponding to the consumption number of each candidate spare part according to the guarantee probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit;
s104, according to the probability corresponding to the consumption number of each candidate spare part, the consumption number of the spare parts of the electromechanical universal part is calculated.
Here, for each electromechanical unit, the task success probability and the guarantee success probability corresponding to the condition that the electromechanical universal parts consume the spare parts with different candidate spare part consumption numbers can be calculated, the task success probability can be used for representing the task completion capacity of the electromechanical unit, and the guarantee success probability can be used for representing the guarantee capacity of the spare parts for recovering work after the electromechanical unit fails. On the basis, a task success probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit and a guarantee success probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit can be respectively formed.
It will be appreciated that when the number of spare parts to be provided with an electromechanical common part is m, the number of spare parts consumed should be less than or equal to m, so that each candidate number of spare parts consumed may be taken as 0, 1.
In addition, since each mechatronic unit is of the same type, the lifetime of each mechatronic unit may be subject to the weibull distribution of the same parameters, and the maintenance time consumption of each mechatronic unit may be subject to the normal distribution of the same parameters. The working strength of the electromechanical units is different according to the installed equipment, so that the respective task time of each electromechanical unit is generally different in the same guarantee period.
It should be noted that, the estimated number of spare parts consumed by the electromechanical common parts in step S104 refers to a mean value of the number of spare parts consumed by the electromechanical common parts during the task. By estimating the spare part consumption quantity of the electromechanical universal parts, unnecessary resource waste caused by excessive spare part quantity can be avoided, and meanwhile, equipment shutdown caused by insufficient spare part guarantee capability caused by insufficient spare part quantity is avoided.
According to the method provided by the embodiment of the invention, the consumption quantity of each candidate spare part is obtained according to the number of spare parts of the electromechanical universal part, the task success probability array and the guarantee success probability array of the consumption quantity of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit are calculated according to the Weibull distribution obeyed by the service life of the electromechanical unit and the normal distribution obeyed by the maintenance time of the electromechanical unit, the probability corresponding to the consumption quantity of each candidate spare part is further calculated, and finally the consumption quantity of the spare parts of the electromechanical universal part is estimated, so that the estimation error of the consumption quantity of the spare parts of the electromechanical universal part is greatly reduced, the scientific rationality of the spare part management is facilitated to be improved, and the spare part guarantee capability of the electromechanical universal part is improved.
Based on the above embodiment, S102 specifically includes:
wherein r is the consumption number of candidate spare parts, i is the number of the electromechanical unit, T i For the task time of the ith electromechanical unit, u is the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution, v is the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, Γ (·) is a gamma function, a is the mean value of the Weibull distribution, b is the root variance of the Weibull distribution, c is the mean value of the normal distribution, d is the root variance of the normal distribution, ps i [r]Task success probability array ps corresponding to ith electromechanical unit i In (b) the (r+1) th element, pb i [r]The guarantee success probability array pb corresponding to the ith electromechanical unit i And (3) the (r+1) th element. Here, r=0, 1..m, m is the number of spare parts of the electromechanical common part, i=1N, n is the number of electromechanical units, the gamma function is specifically:
it can be understood that during the task of the electromechanical general-purpose component, even if a fault occurs, the fault can be removed in time through the maintenance of the spare component, so that the electromechanical general-purpose component continues to work until the task is finished, and the task is considered to be successful by the spare component. When r is 0, it is stated that spare part maintenance is not performed during the task, maintenance time is not involved, the probability of success of spare part guarantee is 0, and evaluation of the probability of success of the task of each electromechanical unit can be completed only according to the life probability density function of the electromechanical unit and the task time of each electromechanical unit.
Further, a is the mean value of the weibull distribution, namely the life mean value, and b is the root variance of the weibull distribution, namely the life root variance, and can be calculated by the following method:
based on any of the above embodiments, S103 specifically includes:
s201, calculating a guarantee probability array pd of the consumption number of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit i ：
pd i ＝ps i +pb i
S202, performing convolution operation according to a guarantee probability array of the consumption number of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit to obtain a probability array pj:
pj＝pd 1 *pd 2 *…*pd n
wherein, the sign is convolution calculation, and n is the number of electromechanical units;
s203, the (r+1) th element pj [ r ] in the probability array pj is the probability corresponding to the consumption number r of the candidate spare parts.
It will be appreciated that each pd i The same independent variables, namely the consumption number r of candidate spare parts, exist among the arrays, discrete convolution operation can be carried out on the same independent variables, and r=0, 1 i The length of the array is m+1, and the length of the probability array pj obtained after convolution operation is nm+1.
Based on any of the above embodiments, in order to further improve the accuracy of estimating the spare part consumption, S104 specifically includes:
wherein m is the spare part number of the electromechanical general-purpose part, and nx is the spare part consumption number of the electromechanical general-purpose part.
Based on any one of the embodiments, the invention provides a method for estimating the consumption quantity of spare parts of an electromechanical universal part by considering maintenance time-consuming factors, which comprises the following specific steps:
(1) Initializing, namely enabling the unit number i to be 1, the consumption number r of candidate spare parts to be 0, and the life average parameterLongevity proposition root variance parameter->Wherein Γ () is a gamma function, +.>1≤i≤n；
(2) Calculating probability ps of task success i [r]。
(3) Calculating probability pb of guarantee success i [r]。
(4) Updating r=r+1, if r is less than or equal to m, executing (2), otherwise executing (5);
(5) Let the guarantee probability pd i ＝ps i +pb i If i=1, pj=pd i Otherwise let pj=pj×pd i Convolution calculation symbols.
(6) Updating i=i+1, if i is less than or equal to n, enabling the consumption quantity r=0 of the candidate spare parts to execute (2), otherwise executing (7);
(7) Let the average consumption number of spare parts, namely the consumption number of spare parts And outputting nx.
For example, the service life of a certain electromechanical part is subjected to Weibull distribution W (100,2.2), the electromechanical part is respectively installed on 4 pieces of equipment, the respective task time is 140, 180, 220 and 260h, 6 spare parts are allocated in total, the fault repairing time is subjected to normal distribution N (10, 3), and the consumption number of the spare parts is calculated.
Solution: (1) Initializing, let the unit number i=1, the candidate spare part consumption number r=0, the parameter a=4.343, and the parameter b=20.39.
Executing (2) - (6) for multiple times, traversing and calculating task success probability arrays ps of all units i Ensuring success probability array pb i Guarantee probability array pd i The results are shown in Table 1, and the probability array pj results are shown in Table 2:
TABLE 1
TABLE 2 probability array pj
(7) Make spare parts consume quantityAnd outputting nx.
And establishing a spare part guarantee simulation model, and performing simulation verification on the method. FIG. 2 is a graph comparing the results of the method and simulation of the invention for the number of spare parts consumed when the number of the electromechanical common parts installed on a plurality of devices is 1-12. From fig. 2, it can be seen that the results of the method of the present invention are very consistent with the simulation results.
Based on any one of the above embodiments, the present invention provides a system for estimating the consumption number of spare parts of an electromechanical general-purpose component, and fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of the system for estimating the consumption number of spare parts of an electromechanical general-purpose component, as shown in fig. 3, where the system includes:
a candidate spare part consumption number obtaining module 310, configured to obtain each candidate spare part consumption number according to the number of spare parts of the electromechanical universal part; the electromechanical general-purpose part consists of electromechanical units of the same type which are respectively arranged on a plurality of devices;
the probability array calculation module 320 is configured to calculate a task success probability array and a guarantee success probability array of the consumption number of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit according to a weibull distribution obeyed by the lifetime of the electromechanical unit, a normal distribution obeyed by the maintenance time of the electromechanical unit, and a task time of each electromechanical unit;
the probability calculation module 330 is configured to calculate, according to the task success probability array and the guarantee success probability array of the candidate spare part consumption number of each electromechanical unit, a guarantee probability array of the candidate spare part consumption number of each electromechanical unit, and calculate, according to the guarantee probability array of the candidate spare part consumption number of each electromechanical unit, a probability corresponding to the candidate spare part consumption number;
the spare part consumption number calculation module 340 is configured to calculate the spare part consumption number of the electromechanical universal part according to the probability corresponding to each candidate spare part consumption number.
According to the system provided by the embodiment of the invention, the consumption quantity of each candidate spare part is obtained according to the number of spare parts of the electromechanical universal part, the task success probability array and the guarantee success probability array of the consumption quantity of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit are calculated according to the Weibull distribution obeyed by the service life of the electromechanical unit and the normal distribution obeyed by the maintenance time of the electromechanical unit, the probability corresponding to the consumption quantity of each candidate spare part is further calculated, and finally the consumption quantity of the spare parts of the electromechanical universal part is estimated, so that the estimation error of the consumption quantity of the spare parts of the electromechanical universal part is greatly reduced, the scientific rationality of the spare part management is facilitated to be improved, and the spare part guarantee capability of the electromechanical universal part is improved.
It can be understood that the detailed functional implementation of each module may be referred to the description in the foregoing method embodiment, and will not be repeated herein.
In addition, an embodiment of the present invention provides another device for estimating the consumption number of spare parts of an electromechanical general-purpose part, including: a memory and a processor;
the memory is used for storing a computer program;
the processor is configured to implement the method in the above-described embodiments when executing the computer program.
Furthermore, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the method in the above embodiments.
Based on the method in the above embodiments, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer program product, which when run on a processor causes the processor to perform the method in the above embodiments.
It will be readily appreciated by those skilled in the art that the foregoing description is merely a preferred embodiment of the invention and is not intended to limit the invention, but any modifications, equivalents, improvements or alternatives falling within the spirit and principles of the invention are intended to be included within the scope of the invention.

Claims (8)

1. A spare part consumption number estimation method of an electromechanical general-purpose part, characterized by comprising:
s101, obtaining consumption quantity of each candidate spare part according to the quantity of the spare parts of the electromechanical universal parts; the electromechanical general-purpose part consists of electromechanical units of the same type which are respectively arranged on a plurality of devices;
s102, calculating a task success probability array and a guarantee success probability array of the consumption quantity of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit according to the Weibull distribution obeyed by the service life of the electromechanical unit, the normal distribution obeyed by the maintenance time of the electromechanical unit and the task time of each electromechanical unit;
s103, calculating a guarantee probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit according to the task success probability array and the guarantee success probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit, and calculating the probability corresponding to the consumption number of each candidate spare part according to the guarantee probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit;
s104, calculating the spare part consumption number of the electromechanical universal part according to the probability corresponding to each candidate spare part consumption number.
2. The spare part consumption number estimation method according to claim 1, wherein S102 specifically includes:
wherein r is the consumption number of candidate spare parts, i is the number of the electromechanical unit, T i For the task time of the ith electromechanical unit, u is the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution, v is the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, Γ (·) is a gamma function, a is the mean value of the Weibull distribution, b is the root variance of the Weibull distribution, c is the mean value of the normal distribution, d is the root variance of the normal distribution, ps i []For the task corresponding to the ith electromechanical unitSuccess probability array ps i In (b) the (r+1) th element, pb i []The guarantee success probability array pb corresponding to the ith electromechanical unit i And (3) the (r+1) th element.
3. The spare part consumption number estimation method according to claim 2, wherein S103 specifically includes:
s201, calculating a guarantee probability array pd of the consumption number of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit i ：
pd i ＝ps i +pb i
S202, performing convolution operation according to the guaranteed probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit to obtain a probability array pj:
pj＝pd 1 *pd 2 *…*pd n
wherein, the sign is convolution calculation, and n is the number of electromechanical units;
s203, the (r+1) th element pj [ r ] in the probability array pj is the probability corresponding to the consumption number r of the candidate spare parts.
4. The spare part consumption amount estimation method according to claim 3, wherein S104 specifically comprises:
wherein m is the spare part number of the electromechanical universal part, and nx is the spare part consumption number of the electromechanical universal part.
5. A spare part consumption amount estimation system of an electromechanical general-purpose part, comprising:
the candidate spare part consumption number obtaining module is used for obtaining each candidate spare part consumption number according to the spare part number of the electromechanical universal part; the electromechanical general-purpose part consists of electromechanical units of the same type which are respectively arranged on a plurality of devices;
the probability array calculation module is used for calculating a task success probability array and a guarantee success probability array of the consumption quantity of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit according to the Weibull distribution obeyed by the service life of the electromechanical unit, the normal distribution obeyed by the maintenance time consumption of the electromechanical unit and the task time of each electromechanical unit;
the probability calculation module is used for calculating a guarantee probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit according to the task success probability array and the guarantee success probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit, and calculating the probability corresponding to the consumption number of each candidate spare part according to the guarantee probability array of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit;
and the spare part consumption number calculation module is used for calculating the spare part consumption number of the electromechanical universal part according to the probability corresponding to each candidate spare part consumption number.
6. The spare part consumption amount estimation system according to claim 5, wherein the probability array calculation module specifically calculates using the following formula:
wherein r is the consumption number of candidate spare parts, i is the number of the electromechanical unit, T i For the task time of the ith electromechanical unit, u is the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution, v is the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, Γ (·) is a gamma function, a is the mean value of the Weibull distribution, b is the root variance of the Weibull distribution, c is the mean value of the normal distribution, d is the root variance of the normal distribution, ps i [r]Task success probability array ps corresponding to ith electromechanical unit i In (b) the (r+1) th element, pb i [r]For the i-th electromechanical unit corresponding to the guaranteed success probability numberGroup pb i And (3) the (r+1) th element.
7. The spare part consumption number estimation system according to claim 6, wherein the probability calculation module specifically includes:
a guarantee probability array calculation unit for calculating a guarantee probability array pd of the consumption number of candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit i ：
pd i ＝ps i +pb i
The convolution operation unit is used for carrying out convolution operation according to the guaranteed probability arrays of the consumption number of the candidate spare parts of each electromechanical unit to obtain a probability array pj:
pj＝pd 1 *pd 2 *…*pd n
wherein, the symbol is convolution calculation, and b is the number of electromechanical units;
and the probability calculation unit is used for calculating the probability that the (r+1) th element pj [ ] in the probability array pj is the corresponding probability of the candidate spare part consumption quantity r.
8. The spare part consumption amount estimation system according to claim 7, wherein the spare part consumption amount calculation module specifically calculates using the following formula:
wherein m is the spare part number of the electromechanical universal part, and nx is the spare part consumption number of the electromechanical universal part.
CN202310473742.5A 2023-04-27 2023-04-27 Method and system for estimating spare part consumption quantity of electromechanical general parts Pending CN116542457A (en)

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