CN116505596A - A multi-regional power system cross-regional support time-series production simulation method and system - Google Patents
A multi-regional power system cross-regional support time-series production simulation method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Description
技术领域Technical Field
本发明涉及多区域电力系统随机生产模拟领域,并且更具体地,涉及一种多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟方法及及系统。The present invention relates to the field of random production simulation of multi-regional power systems, and more specifically, to a method and system for simulating cross-regional support sequential production of multi-regional power systems.
背景技术Background Art
电力系统随机生产模拟可计及负荷的随机波动和机组随机停运,模拟电力系统实际运行中的发电调度过程,计算失负荷指标,是可靠性评估的重要工具。目前已有多种成熟常用的电力系统随机生产模拟方法,包括半不变量法、频率-持续时间法和等效电量函数法等,并在传统电力系统中得到了广泛应用。Power system random production simulation can take into account random fluctuations in load and random outages of units, simulate the power generation dispatching process in actual operation of the power system, and calculate load loss indicators. It is an important tool for reliability assessment. At present, there are many mature and commonly used power system random production simulation methods, including semi-invariant method, frequency-duration method and equivalent power function method, which have been widely used in traditional power systems.
在计及新能源的发电框架中进行生产模拟时,机组调度过程既要满足负荷的波动,又要考虑新能源的影响。在仅考虑新能源出力的随机性情况下,常规机组强迫停运的不确定性仍按照保留足够的事故备用模型来处理,可以有针对性的分析新能源影响下的系统电力电量平衡情况,通过多区域电力系统跨区支援模型,对区域间电力的输送能力进行随机模拟,充分发挥互联系统的联网效益,更加全面地对新能源消纳指标等进行评估。相比于当前按照保障出力参与电力平衡的确定性原则,这种随机方法可以提供更多关于新能源贡献电力的可靠性的信息,且耗费时间可以接受,对“双碳”目标下新能源出力占比逐渐提高的新型电力系统的指导规划有一定的参考意义。When conducting production simulation in the framework of power generation taking into account renewable energy, the unit dispatching process must not only meet the fluctuation of load, but also consider the impact of renewable energy. When only considering the randomness of renewable energy output, the uncertainty of forced shutdown of conventional units is still handled according to the model that retains sufficient accident backup. The system power balance under the influence of renewable energy can be analyzed in a targeted manner. Through the cross-regional support model of multi-regional power system, the transmission capacity of power between regions can be stochastically simulated, the networking benefits of the interconnected system can be fully utilized, and the new energy consumption indicators can be evaluated more comprehensively. Compared with the current deterministic principle of ensuring output to participate in power balance, this random method can provide more information about the reliability of renewable energy contribution to power, and the time consumption is acceptable. It has certain reference significance for the guidance and planning of new power systems with a gradually increasing proportion of renewable energy output under the "dual carbon" goal.
发明内容Summary of the invention
为了解决现有技术中按照保障出力参与电力平衡的确定性原则未充分考虑电力系统中新能源的出力,且评估灵活性不足的技术问题,本发明提供一种多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟方法及系统。In order to solve the technical problems in the prior art that the output of new energy in the power system is not fully considered according to the deterministic principle of ensuring output to participate in power balance, and the evaluation flexibility is insufficient, the present invention provides a multi-regional power system cross-regional support timing production simulation method and system.
根据本发明的一方面,本发明提供一种多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟方法,所述方法包括:According to one aspect of the present invention, the present invention provides a method for simulating cross-region support sequential production of a multi-region power system, the method comprising:
获取多区域电力系统的分区数据和联络线数据,以及每个分区中的常规机组信息和新能源机组信息;Obtain the partition data and tie line data of the multi-regional power system, as well as the conventional unit information and new energy unit information in each partition;
基于建立的常规机组出力模型和新能源出力序贯模型,根据所述常规机组信息和新能源机组信息随机生成多个所述多区域电力系统在任意时间序列的模拟出力场景,并将所述模拟出力场景作为跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景;Based on the established conventional unit output model and the new energy output sequential model, a plurality of simulated output scenarios of the multi-regional power system in any time series are randomly generated according to the conventional unit information and the new energy unit information, and the simulated output scenarios are used as sampling scenarios for cross-regional support sequential production simulation;
基于每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景,按照建立的联络线故障概率模型和联络线跨区支援模型对所述多区域电力系统进行时序生产模拟,确定联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果;Based on the sampling scenario of each cross-region support sequential production simulation, a sequential production simulation is performed on the multi-region power system according to the established tie line fault probability model and tie line cross-region support model to determine the tie line cross-region transmission result and the sub-region power balance result;
根据每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果,计算考虑所述多区域电力系统保供和新能源消纳水平的概率评价指标并输出。Based on the inter-regional transmission results of the interconnection lines and the sub-regional electricity balance results of each sampling scenario of the inter-regional support sequential production simulation, the probability evaluation index considering the supply guarantee and new energy consumption level of the multi-regional power system is calculated and output.
根据本发明的另一方面,本发明提供一种多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟系统,所述系统包括:According to another aspect of the present invention, the present invention provides a multi-regional power system cross-regional support time sequence production simulation system, the system comprising:
数据获取模块,用于获取多区域电力系统的分区数据和联络线数据,以及每个分区中的常规机组信息和新能源机组信息;A data acquisition module is used to acquire the partition data and tie line data of the multi-region power system, as well as the conventional unit information and new energy unit information in each partition;
抽样场景模块,用于基于建立的常规机组出力模型和新能源出力序贯模型,根据所述常规机组信息和新能源机组信息随机生成多个所述多区域电力系统在任意时间序列的模拟出力场景,并将所述模拟出力场景作为跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景;A sampling scenario module, for randomly generating a plurality of simulated output scenarios of the multi-regional power system in any time series based on the established conventional unit output model and the renewable energy output sequential model according to the conventional unit information and the renewable energy unit information, and using the simulated output scenarios as sampling scenarios for cross-region support sequential production simulation;
跨区支援模块,用于基于每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景,按照建立的联络线故障概率模型和联络线跨区支援模型对所述多区域电力系统进行时序生产模拟,确定联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果;The inter-regional support module is used to perform a time-series production simulation on the multi-regional power system based on the sampling scenario of each inter-regional support time-series production simulation according to the established tie line failure probability model and tie line inter-regional support model, and determine the tie line inter-regional transmission result and the sub-regional power balance result;
输出结果模块,用于根据每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果,计算考虑所述多区域电力系统保供和新能源消纳水平的概率评价指标并输出。The output result module is used to calculate and output the probability evaluation index considering the supply guarantee and new energy consumption level of the multi-regional power system based on the inter-regional transmission results of the interconnection lines and the sub-regional power balance results of the sampling scenario of each inter-regional support timing production simulation.
本发明提供的多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟方法及系统,其中,所述方法包括:获取多区域电力系统的分区数据和联络线数据,以及每个分区中的常规机组信息和新能源机组信息;基于建立的常规机组出力模型和新能源出力序贯模型,根据所述常规机组信息和新能源机组信息随机生成多个所述多区域电力系统在任意时间序列的模拟出力场景,并将所述模拟出力场景作为跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景;基于每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景,按照建立的联络线故障概率模型和联络线跨区支援模型对所述多区域电力系统进行时序生产模拟,确定联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果;根据每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果,计算考虑所述多区域电力系统保供和新能源消纳水平的概率评价指标并输出。所述方法和系统同时考虑新能源、常规机组及联络线的随机性,通过联络线故障概率模型和联络线跨区支援模型对多区域电力系统进行时序生产模拟,实现了对多区域电力系统未来运行情况下新能源贡献出力的可靠性的模拟,对新能源出力占比逐渐提高的新型电力系统的指导规划具有重要的参考意义。The present invention provides a method and system for simulating cross-regional support sequential production of a multi-regional power system, wherein the method comprises: obtaining partition data and interconnection line data of the multi-regional power system, as well as conventional unit information and new energy unit information in each partition; based on the established conventional unit output model and new energy output sequential model, randomly generating a plurality of simulated output scenarios of the multi-regional power system in any time series according to the conventional unit information and new energy unit information, and using the simulated output scenarios as sampling scenarios for cross-regional support sequential production simulation; based on each sampling scenario of cross-regional support sequential production simulation, performing sequential production simulation on the multi-regional power system according to the established interconnection line fault probability model and interconnection line cross-regional support model, and determining interconnection line cross-regional transmission results and partition electricity balance results; according to the interconnection line cross-regional transmission results and partition electricity balance results of each sampling scenario of cross-regional support sequential production simulation, calculating and outputting probability evaluation indicators considering the supply guarantee and new energy consumption level of the multi-regional power system. The method and system simultaneously consider the randomness of new energy, conventional units and interconnection lines, and perform time-series production simulation on a multi-regional power system through an interconnection line failure probability model and an interconnection line cross-regional support model, thereby achieving a simulation of the reliability of the output contribution of new energy under the future operation of the multi-regional power system, which has important reference significance for the guiding planning of new power systems with a gradually increasing proportion of new energy output.
附图说明BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
通过参考下面的附图,可以更为完整地理解本发明的示例性实施方式:A more complete understanding of exemplary embodiments of the present invention may be obtained by referring to the following drawings:
图1为根据本发明优选实施方式的多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟方法的流程图;FIG1 is a flow chart of a method for simulating cross-regional support sequential production of a multi-regional power system according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention;
图2为根据本发明优选实施方式的基于多个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景对多区域电力系统进行时序生产模拟的流程图;2 is a flow chart of performing sequential production simulation on a multi-regional power system based on a plurality of sampling scenarios of cross-regional support sequential production simulation according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention;
图3为根据本发明另一个优选实施方式的多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟方法的流程图;3 is a flow chart of a multi-regional power system cross-region support sequential production simulation method according to another preferred embodiment of the present invention;
图4为根据本发明另一个优选实施方式的多区域电力系统的拓扑结构示意图;FIG4 is a schematic diagram of a topological structure of a multi-regional power system according to another preferred embodiment of the present invention;
图5为根据本发明另一个优选实施方式的一个联络线跨区输电结果示意图;FIG5 is a schematic diagram of a cross-regional power transmission result of a tie line according to another preferred embodiment of the present invention;
图6为根据本发明另一个优选实施方式的另一个联络线跨区输电结果示意图;FIG6 is a schematic diagram of another cross-regional power transmission result of a tie line according to another preferred embodiment of the present invention;
图7为根据本发明另一个优选实施方式的多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟的一个评价指标抽样结果示意图;7 is a schematic diagram of an evaluation index sampling result of a multi-regional power system cross-regional support sequential production simulation according to another preferred embodiment of the present invention;
图8为根据本发明优选实施方式的多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟系统的结构示意图。FIG8 is a schematic structural diagram of a multi-regional power system cross-region support sequential production simulation system according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention.
具体实施方式DETAILED DESCRIPTION
现在参考附图介绍本发明的示例性实施方式,然而,本发明可以用许多不同的形式来实施,并且不局限于此处描述的实施例,提供这些实施例是为了详尽地且完全地公开本发明,并且向所属技术领域的技术人员充分传达本发明的范围。对于表示在附图中的示例性实施方式中的术语并不是对本发明的限定。在附图中,相同的单元/元件使用相同的附图标记。Now, exemplary embodiments of the present invention are described with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the present invention can be implemented in many different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described herein. These embodiments are provided to disclose the present invention in detail and completely and to fully convey the scope of the present invention to those skilled in the art. The terms used in the exemplary embodiments shown in the accompanying drawings are not intended to limit the present invention. In the accompanying drawings, the same units/elements are marked with the same reference numerals.
除非另有说明,此处使用的术语(包括科技术语)对所属技术领域的技术人员具有通常的理解含义。另外,可以理解的是,以通常使用的词典限定的术语,应当被理解为与其相关领域的语境具有一致的含义,而不应该被理解为理想化的或过于正式的意义。Unless otherwise specified, the terms (including technical terms) used herein have the commonly understood meanings to those skilled in the art. In addition, it is understood that the terms defined in commonly used dictionaries should be understood to have the same meanings as those in the context of the relevant fields, and should not be understood as idealized or overly formal meanings.
示例性方法一Exemplary Method 1
图1为根据本发明优选实施方式的多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟方法的流程图。如图1所示,本优选实施方式所述的多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟方法从步骤101开始。Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a multi-regional power system cross-region support sequential production simulation method according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Fig. 1 , the multi-regional power system cross-region support sequential production simulation method described in this preferred embodiment starts from step 101 .
在步骤101,获取多区域电力系统的分区数据和联络线数据,以及每个分区中的常规机组信息和新能源机组信息。In step 101, the partition data and tie line data of the multi-region power system, as well as the conventional unit information and the new energy unit information in each partition are obtained.
在步骤102,基于建立的常规机组出力模型和新能源出力序贯模型,根据所述常规机组信息和新能源机组信息随机生成多个所述多区域电力系统在任意时间序列的模拟出力场景,并将所述模拟出力场景作为跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景。In step 102, based on the established conventional unit output model and the new energy output sequential model, a plurality of simulated output scenarios of the multi-regional power system in any time series are randomly generated according to the conventional unit information and the new energy unit information, and the simulated output scenarios are used as sampling scenarios for cross-region support sequential production simulation.
本优选实施方式中,所述常规机组出力模型是基于常规机组的历史出力数据,对建立的常规机组出力模型进行训练验证,确定模型参数后获得的,建立的常规机组出力模型在设置的时间段出现故障的次数服从泊松分布,机组故障维持的时间服从指数分布。新能源出力序贯模型也是基于相同的原理生成,在此不再赘述。In this preferred embodiment, the conventional unit output model is obtained after training and verifying the established conventional unit output model based on the historical output data of the conventional unit, and the model parameters are determined. The number of failures of the established conventional unit output model in the set time period follows the Poisson distribution, and the duration of the unit failure follows the exponential distribution. The new energy output sequential model is also generated based on the same principle, which will not be repeated here.
在步骤103,基于每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景,按照建立的联络线故障概率模型和联络线跨区支援模型对所述多区域电力系统进行时序生产模拟,确定联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果。In step 103, based on the sampling scenario of each inter-regional support sequential production simulation, a sequential production simulation is performed on the multi-regional power system according to the established interconnection line failure probability model and interconnection line inter-regional support model to determine the interconnection line inter-regional transmission results and the partition power balance results.
优选地,所述基于每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景,按照建立的联络线故障概率模型和联络线跨区支援模型对所述多区域电力系统进行时序生产模拟,确定联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果。Preferably, based on the sampling scenario of each cross-region support sequential production simulation, the multi-region power system is subjected to sequential production simulation according to the established interconnection line failure probability model and interconnection line cross-region support model to determine the interconnection line cross-region transmission results and the partition power balance results.
图2为根据本发明优选实施方式的基于多个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景对多区域电力系统进行时序生产模拟的流程图。如图2所示,本发明优选实施方式所述的基于多个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景对多区域电力系统进行时序生产模拟从步骤201开始。Fig. 2 is a flow chart of performing sequential production simulation on a multi-regional power system based on a plurality of sampling scenarios of cross-regional support sequential production simulation according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Fig. 2, performing sequential production simulation on a multi-regional power system based on a plurality of sampling scenarios of cross-regional support sequential production simulation according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention starts from step 201.
在步骤201,选择第n个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景,其中,1≤n≤N。本优选实施方式中,根据常规机组出力模型和新能源出力序贯模型随机模拟生成的抽样场景总数为N个。In step 201, the nth sampling scenario of cross-region support sequential production simulation is selected, where 1≤n≤N. In this preferred embodiment, the total number of sampling scenarios generated by random simulation based on conventional unit output model and new energy output sequential model is N.
在步骤202,忽略跨区联络线作用,进行每个分区的新能源的独自电力平衡,确定各分区的第一电力盈余/缺口。In step 202, the effect of the inter-regional interconnection line is ignored, and the independent power balance of the new energy in each sub-region is performed to determine the first power surplus/gap of each sub-region.
在步骤203,按照所述多区域电力系统常规机组利用小时均衡原则,确定每个分区的常规机组平均利用小时数,并结合所述第一电力盈余/第一电力缺口计算每个分区的第二电力盈余/缺口。In step 203, according to the principle of balancing the utilization hours of conventional units in the multi-regional power system, the average utilization hours of conventional units in each zone are determined, and the second power surplus/gap of each zone is calculated in combination with the first power surplus/first power gap.
由于现有技术中,对一个区域的电力进行独自平衡,并确定电力盈余/缺口已经有许多成熟的方法,因此,此处不再赘述。Since there are many mature methods in the prior art for independently balancing the power of a region and determining the power surplus/shortage, they will not be described here.
在步骤204,基于建立的联络线故障概率模型,随机生成所述多区域电力系统的联络线模拟故障结果。In step 204, based on the established tie line fault probability model, tie line simulated fault results of the multi-regional power system are randomly generated.
优选地,所述基于建立的联络线故障概率模型,随机生成所述多区域电力系统的联络线模拟故障结果,包括:Preferably, the randomly generating the tie line fault simulation result of the multi-regional power system based on the established tie line fault probability model includes:
对于所述多区域电力系统的每个联络线,按照第n个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的时间序列,基于建立的联络线故障概率模型随机生成所述联络线的联络线模拟故障数据,其中,所述联络线故障概率模型包括联络线故障次数概率模型和联络线故障状态维持时间概率模型,具体地:For each tie line of the multi-regional power system, according to the time series of the sampling scenario of the n-th cross-regional support sequential production simulation, tie line simulation fault data of the tie line is randomly generated based on the established tie line fault probability model, wherein the tie line fault probability model includes a tie line fault number probability model and a tie line fault state maintenance time probability model, specifically:
联络线故障出现的次数服从泊松分布,所述联络线故障次数概率模型的表达式为:The number of tie line faults follows Poisson distribution, and the expression of the tie line fault probability model is:
式中,k表示基于对应时间序列的历史故障数据确定的对应时间序列中出现的故障次数,λ表示基于对应时间序列的历史故障数据确定的对应时间序列的平均故障次数,P(X=k)表示基于对应时间序列的历史故障数据确定的对应时间序列中出现的故障次数为k时的概率;Where k represents the number of failures in the corresponding time series determined based on the historical failure data of the corresponding time series, λ represents the average number of failures in the corresponding time series determined based on the historical failure data of the corresponding time series, and P(X=k) represents the probability when the number of failures in the corresponding time series determined based on the historical failure data of the corresponding time series is k;
联络线故障状态维持时间服从指数分布,所述联络线故障状态维持时间概率模型f(x)和F(x)的表达式为:The tie line fault state maintenance time follows an exponential distribution, and the expressions of the tie line fault state maintenance time probability models f(x) and F(x) are:
式中,x表示基于对应时间序列的历史故障数据确定的对应时间序列的故障状态维持时间,f(x)表示故障状态维持时间分布的密度函数,F(x)表示故障状态维持时间分布的概率分布函数,θ表示分布的期望值, h表示基于对应时间序列的历史故障数据确定的对应时间序列的平均故障时长,SF表示所述联络线在所述多区域电力系统中的运行系数,EFOR表示等效强迫停运率,T表示对应时间序列的时长。Wherein, x represents the fault state maintenance time of the corresponding time series determined based on the historical fault data of the corresponding time series, f(x) represents the density function of the fault state maintenance time distribution, F(x) represents the probability distribution function of the fault state maintenance time distribution, θ represents the expected value of the distribution, h represents the average fault duration of the corresponding time series determined based on the historical fault data of the corresponding time series, SF represents the operation coefficient of the tie line in the multi-regional power system, EFOR represents the equivalent forced outage rate, and T represents the duration of the corresponding time series.
在步骤205,考虑跨区联络线作用,根据所述联络线数据中的输电约束和所述联络线模拟故障结果,以及每个分区的第二电力盈余/第二电力缺口,采用建立的联络线跨区支援模型确定联络线跨区输电结果,并得到每个分区的最终电力盈余/缺口。In step 205, the role of inter-regional interconnection lines is taken into consideration, and based on the transmission constraints in the interconnection line data and the simulated fault results of the interconnection lines, as well as the second power surplus/second power gap of each partition, the established interconnection line inter-regional support model is used to determine the interconnection line inter-regional transmission results, and the final power surplus/gap of each partition is obtained.
优选地,所述考虑跨区联络线作用,根据所述联络线数据中的输电约束和所述联络线模拟故障结果,以及每个分区的第二电力盈余/第二电力缺口,采用建立的联络线跨区支援模型确定联络线跨区输电结果,其中,所述联络线跨区支援模型的目标函数以联络线有功损耗最小,并叠加存在电力缺口的分区的功率偏差的平方得到,所述目标函数的表达式为:Preferably, the cross-region tie line effect is considered, and according to the transmission constraints in the tie line data and the tie line simulated fault results, as well as the second power surplus/second power gap of each partition, the established tie line cross-region support model is used to determine the tie line cross-region transmission result, wherein the objective function of the tie line cross-region support model is obtained by minimizing the tie line active loss and superimposing the square of the power deviation of the partition with power gap, and the expression of the objective function is:
式中,PEX—— 联络线功率安排向量;Where, P EX —— tie line power arrangement vector;
PZN——分区的受入外来功率安排向量;P ZN ——the incoming external power arrangement vector of the zone;
NEX——联络线数量;N EX ——Number of contact lines;
NZN——分区的数量;N ZN – number of partitions;
PEX.i——第i个联络线的功率安排值,定义送端流向受端为正方向;P EX.i ——Power arrangement value of the ith tie line, which defines the flow from the sending end to the receiving end as the positive direction;
PZN.i——第i个分区受入外来功率的数值;P ZN.i ——the value of the external power received by the ith zone;
DZN.i——第i个分区的供电缺口,该值大于零表示存在缺口,小于零表示对外支援的能力;D ZN.i ——The power supply gap of the ith zone. A value greater than zero indicates a gap, and a value less than zero indicates the ability to provide external support;
ki——第i个联络线功率项的系数,取,当电阻及联络线电压已知时可取R/U2;k i ——The coefficient of the power term of the ith tie line, taken as , when the resistance and tie line voltage are known, R/U 2 can be taken;
所述目标函数需满足的等式约束,即每个分区受入的功率为与其相关各联络线安排功率之和,所述等式表达式如下:The objective function needs to satisfy the equality constraint that the power received by each partition is the sum of the powers arranged by the tie lines related to it. The equality expression is as follows:
式中,j表示所述多区域电力系统中与第i个分区连接的第j条联络线;Wherein, j represents the jth tie line connected to the i-th partition in the multi-region power system;
所述目标函数还需满足不等式约束,即每个联络线的输送功率受到正向和反向限额红豆,每个分区的受入功率受到分区电力缺口的约束,所述不等式的表达式如下:The objective function also needs to satisfy the inequality constraint, that is, the transmission power of each tie line is subject to the forward and reverse limit red beans, and the input power of each partition is subject to the partition power gap constraint. The expression of the inequality is as follows:
式中, PEXi.pos——第i个联络线的正向输送功率上限;Where, P EXi.pos is the upper limit of the forward transmission power of the ith tie line;
PEXi.neg——第i个联络线的反向输送功率上限; P EXi.neg ——the upper limit of the reverse transmission power of the ith tie line;
Di——第i个分区的电力缺口,当 Di大于0时,表示存在缺口,当 Di小于0时,表示存在电力冗余; D i ——power gap of the ith partition. When D i is greater than 0, it means there is a gap. When D i is less than 0, it means there is power redundancy.
对于所述存在等式约束和不等式约束的目标函数,通过引入拉格良日乘子,得到消去所述等式约束的目标函数表达式;For the objective function with equality constraints and inequality constraints, by introducing Lagrange multipliers, an objective function expression for eliminating the equality constraints is obtained;
根据拉格朗日极值条件,生成消去所述等式约束的目标函数表达式的线性方程,并采用选主元的消去法对所述线性方程求解;According to the Lagrange extreme value condition, a linear equation of the objective function expression that eliminates the equality constraint is generated, and the linear equation is solved by using the elimination method of the selected principal element;
当所述线性方程的解全部在预先设置的约束范围内,且满足所述不等式约束时,将所述线性方程的解确定为所述多区域电力系统的联络线跨区输电结果。When all solutions of the linear equations are within a preset constraint range and satisfy the inequality constraint, the solutions of the linear equations are determined as the inter-regional power transmission results of the interconnection lines of the multi-regional power system.
在本优选实施方式中,联络线跨区支援模型为带有线性等式约束的二次优化问题,因此,可通过引入拉格朗日乘子,将等式约束叠加到目标函数中。不过和具有一般性的带线性等式约束的二次优化问题不同,对于联络线跨区域支援模型,当受入功率不能满足缺口时,受入功率变量的不等式约束将不能够满足,所以严格来说对于一般性问题的求解与联络线跨区支援模型在不等式约束上存在差异。故对一般性问题求解时,应充分考虑联络线跨区支援模型的不等式约束。In this preferred embodiment, the tie line cross-region support model is a quadratic optimization problem with linear equality constraints. Therefore, the equality constraints can be superimposed on the objective function by introducing Lagrange multipliers. However, unlike the general quadratic optimization problem with linear equality constraints, for the tie line cross-region support model, when the incoming power cannot meet the gap, the inequality constraints of the incoming power variable will not be satisfied. Therefore, strictly speaking, there are differences in the solution of the general problem and the tie line cross-region support model in terms of inequality constraints. Therefore, when solving the general problem, the inequality constraints of the tie line cross-region support model should be fully considered.
对于具有一般性的带有等式约束的第一数学模型的表达式如下:The expression of the first mathematical model with equality constraints is as follows:
式中,X ——n维实数变量;Where, X is an n-dimensional real variable;
ai,bi,ci——关于变量xi的二次项的系数,三系数有可能同时为0;a i , b i , c i ——coefficients of the quadratic term of variable x i . The three coefficients may be 0 at the same time.
Am×n——线性等式约束的系数矩阵, m×n维;A m×n ——coefficient matrix of linear equality constraints, m×n dimensions;
B——等式约束的右侧常数向量,m维;B——constant vector on the right side of the equality constraint, m-dimensional;
Xmin——为变量X的下限;X min — is the lower limit of variable X;
Xmax——为变量X的上限;X max ——is the upper limit of variable X;
引入 m个拉格朗日乘子,消去所述等式约束后的第二数学模型表达式如下:Introducing m Lagrange multipliers and eliminating the equality constraints, the second mathematical model expression is as follows:
根据拉格朗日极值条件,可得如下第一线性方程:According to the Lagrange extreme value condition, the following first linear equation can be obtained:
整理上述线性方程可得下列第二线性方程:Arranging the above linear equations gives the following second linear equation:
采用选主元的消去法对上述系数矩阵进行求解,当所述系数矩阵有奇异时,忽略相应的列和行,并置相应的变量为0继续消去操作;The above coefficient matrix is solved by using the elimination method of the selected pivot element. When the coefficient matrix is singular, the corresponding columns and rows are ignored, and the corresponding variables are set to 0 to continue the elimination operation;
求解得到变量 X后,判断其是否在设置的约束范围[Xmin,Xmax]内,若xi超出范围,则xi取上限或下限值,并将其作为已知量带入式第一数学模型表达式,线性等式约束的系数矩阵和第二线性方程进行降维,并重新求解;重复此过程,直至求解的变量X全部在约束范围内或全部确定。After solving the variable X, determine whether it is within the set constraint range [ Xmin , Xmax ]. If xi exceeds the range, xi takes the upper or lower limit value and substitutes it as a known quantity into the first mathematical model expression. The coefficient matrix of the linear equality constraint and the second linear equation are reduced in dimension and solved again. Repeat this process until all the solved variables X are within the constraint range or are all determined.
在本优选实施方式中,联络线跨区输电相当于对多区域电力系统的电力进行总体调度,因此,结合每个分区各自的第二电力盈余/缺口和联络线跨区输电结果确定每个分区最终的电力盈余/缺口是显而易见的,此处也不再赘述。In this preferred embodiment, the inter-regional power transmission of the interconnection lines is equivalent to the overall dispatch of power in the multi-regional power system. Therefore, it is obvious to determine the final power surplus/shortage of each partition by combining the second power surplus/shortage of each partition and the inter-regional power transmission results of the interconnection lines, which will not be repeated here.
在步骤206,按照预先建立的分区内部出力规则,根据所述联络线跨区输电结果,确定每个分区的机组出力组合,所述机组出力组合即为分区电量平衡结果,其中,所述机组出力组合中包括常规机组和新能源机组中的至少一种。In step 206, according to the pre-established internal output rules of the sub-zones and the inter-zone power transmission results of the interconnection lines, the unit output combination of each sub-zone is determined, and the unit output combination is the sub-zone power balance result, wherein the unit output combination includes at least one of conventional units and new energy units.
优选地,按照预先建立的分区内部出力规则,根据所述联络线跨区输电结果,确定每个分区的机组出力组合,其中,所述分区内部出力规则包括:Preferably, according to the pre-established internal output rules of the sub-areas, the output combination of the units in each sub-area is determined according to the inter-area power transmission result of the tie line, wherein the internal output rules of the sub-areas include:
根据所述联络线跨区输电结果,对于需要跨区输出电力的分区中的常规机组和新能源机组,优先安排零碳机组出力;According to the inter-regional power transmission results of the tie line, for conventional units and new energy units in the sub-regions that need to output power across regions, zero-carbon units are given priority;
当存在抽水蓄能时,综合安排零碳机组和抽水蓄能出力;When pumped storage is present, the output of zero-carbon units and pumped storage is arranged comprehensively;
当上述出力不能满足跨区输出电力要求时,安排火电出力,其中,火电出力中的燃气机组和燃煤机组为竞争关系,按照利用小时数相等原则进行安排。When the above output cannot meet the cross-regional power output requirements, thermal power output will be arranged. Among them, the gas-fired units and coal-fired units in the thermal power output are in a competitive relationship and are arranged according to the principle of equal utilization hours.
在本优选实施方式中,在新能源发电较大情况下,会产生新能源叠加负荷形成的曲线低谷较深,甚至小于零的情况,如果综合考虑多区域电力系统各类电源的调峰效果后,仍无法实现调节,此时的平衡偏差负值构成弃电量。而高峰负荷无法平衡的时刻,将构成电量不足。In this preferred embodiment, when the renewable energy generation is large, the curve formed by the renewable energy superposition load will have a deep valley, or even less than zero. If the peak load regulation effect of various power sources in the multi-regional power system is taken into consideration, the negative balance deviation at this time will constitute the abandoned power. When the peak load cannot be balanced, it will constitute insufficient power.
在步骤207,根据每个分区的机组出力组合中的常规机组出力,设置的常规机组单位发电的能耗数据,以及常规机组使用能源的碳排放均值,计算每个分区的碳排放量。In step 207, the carbon emission of each partition is calculated based on the output of the conventional units in the unit output combination of each partition, the set energy consumption data of the conventional units per unit power generation, and the average carbon emission of the energy used by the conventional units.
在步骤208,令n=n+1,当n≤N时,转至步骤1,其中,N为生成的跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的总数量。In step 208, let n=n+1. When n≤N, go to step 1, where N is the total number of sample scenarios generated for cross-region support sequential production simulation.
在步骤104,根据每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果,计算考虑所述多区域电力系统保供和新能源消纳水平的概率评价指标并输出。In step 104, based on the interconnection line inter-regional transmission results and the sub-regional electricity balance results of each sampling scenario of the inter-regional support sequential production simulation, the probability evaluation index considering the supply guarantee and new energy consumption level of the multi-regional power system is calculated and output.
优选地,所述根据每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果,计算考虑所述多区域电力系统保供和新能源消纳水平的概率评价指标并输出,其中,所述概率评价指标包括每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景对应的时间序列的电力不足概率,电量不足期望值,最大电力缺口值和新能源利用率期望值。Preferably, based on the inter-regional transmission results of the interconnection lines and the sub-regional electricity balance results of the sampling scenarios of each inter-regional support sequential production simulation, the probability evaluation index considering the power supply guarantee and new energy consumption level of the multi-regional power system is calculated and output, wherein the probability evaluation index includes the power shortage probability of the time series corresponding to the sampling scenarios of each inter-regional support sequential production simulation, the expected value of power shortage, the maximum power gap value and the expected value of new energy utilization rate.
在本优选实施方式中,选取电力不足概率LOLP(Loss of load probability),电力不足期望值EENS(expected energy not supplied),最大电力缺口值MLNS(MaximumLoad Not Supplied)和新能源利用率期望值ENEUR(Expectedvalue of new energyutilization rate)作为衡量多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟效果的评价指标,其综合考虑了电力系统保供和系统中新能源消纳水平,从而能够从中选取最优抽样场景下的联络线 跨区支援结果。由于上述四个评价指标的计算在确定多区域电力系统的常规机组出力和新能源出力,以及跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果后,都可能采用现有技术中的常规方法进行计算,因此,此处不再赘述。In this preferred embodiment, the power shortage probability LOLP (Loss of load probability), the power shortage expected value EENS (expected energy not supplied), the maximum power gap value MLNS (Maximum Load Not Supplied) and the expected value of new energy utilization rate ENEUR (Expected value of new energy utilization rate) are selected as evaluation indicators for measuring the effect of multi-regional power system cross-regional support timing production simulation, which comprehensively considers the power system supply guarantee and the new energy consumption level in the system, so that the interconnection line cross-regional support results under the optimal sampling scenario can be selected. Since the calculation of the above four evaluation indicators can be calculated using conventional methods in the prior art after determining the conventional unit output and new energy output of the multi-regional power system, as well as the cross-regional transmission results and the regional power balance results, they will not be repeated here.
示例性方法二Exemplary Method 2
图3为根据本发明另一个优选实施方式的多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟方法的流程图。如图3所示,本优选实施方式所述多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟方法从步骤301开始。Fig. 3 is a flow chart of a multi-regional power system cross-region support sequential production simulation method according to another preferred embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Fig. 3, the multi-regional power system cross-region support sequential production simulation method of the preferred embodiment starts from step 301.
在步骤301,获取多区域电力系统的分区数据和联络线数据,以及每个分区中的常规机组信息和新能源机组信息;In step 301, the partition data and tie line data of the multi-region power system, as well as the conventional unit information and the new energy unit information in each partition are obtained;
在步骤302,基于建立的常规机组出力模型和新能源出力序贯模型,根据所述常规机组信息和新能源机组信息随机生成N个所述多区域电力系统在任意时间序列的模拟出力场景,并将所述模拟出力场景作为跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景;In step 302, based on the established conventional unit output model and the new energy output sequential model, N simulated output scenarios of the multi-regional power system in any time sequence are randomly generated according to the conventional unit information and the new energy unit information, and the simulated output scenarios are used as sampling scenarios for cross-region support sequential production simulation;
在步骤303,选择第n个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景,其中,1≤n≤N;In step 303, the nth sampling scenario of cross-region support sequential production simulation is selected, where 1≤n≤N;
在步骤304,忽略跨区联络线作用,进行每个分区的新能源的独自电力平衡,确定各分区的第一电力盈余/缺口;In step 304, the effect of the inter-regional tie line is ignored, and the independent power balance of the new energy in each sub-region is performed to determine the first power surplus/gap of each sub-region;
在步骤305,按照所述多区域电力系统常规机组利用小时均衡原则,确定每个分区的常规机组平均利用小时数,并结合所述第一电力盈余/第一电力缺口计算每个分区的第二电力盈余/缺口;In step 305, according to the principle of balancing the utilization hours of conventional units in the multi-regional power system, the average utilization hours of conventional units in each zone are determined, and the second power surplus/gap of each zone is calculated in combination with the first power surplus/first power gap;
在步骤306,基于建立的联络线故障概率模型,随机生成所述多区域电力系统的联络线模拟故障结果;In step 306, based on the established tie line fault probability model, a tie line simulation fault result of the multi-regional power system is randomly generated;
在步骤307,考虑跨区联络线作用,根据所述联络线数据中的输电约束和所述联络线模拟故障结果,以及每个分区的第二电力盈余/第二电力缺口,采用建立的联络线跨区支援模型确定联络线跨区输电结果,并得到每个分区的最终电力盈余/缺口;In step 307, considering the role of the inter-regional tie line, according to the transmission constraints in the tie line data and the tie line simulation fault results, as well as the second power surplus/second power gap of each sub-area, the established tie line inter-regional support model is used to determine the tie line inter-regional transmission results, and the final power surplus/gap of each sub-area is obtained;
在步骤308,按照预先建立的分区内部出力规则,根据所述联络线跨区输电结果,确定每个分区的机组出力组合,所述机组出力组合即为分区电量平衡结果,其中,所述机组出力组合中包括常规机组和新能源机组中的至少一种;In step 308, according to the pre-established internal output rules of the sub-area and the inter-area power transmission result of the tie line, the unit output combination of each sub-area is determined, and the unit output combination is the sub-area power balance result, wherein the unit output combination includes at least one of a conventional unit and a new energy unit;
在步骤309,根据每个分区的机组出力组合中的常规机组出力,设置的常规机组单位发电的能耗数据,以及常规机组使用能源的碳排放均值,计算每个分区的碳排放量;In step 309, the carbon emissions of each partition are calculated according to the conventional unit output in the unit output combination of each partition, the set energy consumption data of the conventional unit per unit power generation, and the average carbon emissions of the energy used by the conventional unit;
在步骤310,令n=n+1,当n≤N时,转至步骤1,其中,N为生成的跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的总数量;In step 310, let n=n+1, when n≤N, go to step 1, where N is the total number of sample scenarios generated for cross-region support sequential production simulation;
在步骤311,根据每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果,计算考虑所述多区域电力系统保供和新能源消纳水平的概率评价指标并输出。In step 311, based on the interconnection line inter-regional transmission results and the sub-regional electricity balance results of each sampling scenario of the inter-regional support sequential production simulation, the probability evaluation index considering the supply guarantee and new energy consumption level of the multi-regional power system is calculated and output.
在本优选实施方式中,所述多区域电力系统为包含4个分区,5条联络线的电力系统。图4为根据本发明另一个优选实施方式的多区域电力系统的拓扑结构示意图。如图4所示,所述多区域电力系统的4个分区分别为区域1至区域4,5条直流联络线分别为联络线1至联络线5,其中,联络线1连接区域1和区域2,联络线2连接区域1和区域3,联络线3连接区域2和区域3,联络线4连接区域2和区域4,联络线5连接区域3和区域4。4个分区进行独立电力电量平衡时,区域1和区域2冗余20GW,区域3和区域时缺口分别为30GW和10GW。In this preferred embodiment, the multi-regional power system is a power system comprising 4 partitions and 5 interconnection lines. Figure 4 is a schematic diagram of the topological structure of a multi-regional power system according to another preferred embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Figure 4, the 4 partitions of the multi-regional power system are regions 1 to 4, and the 5 DC interconnection lines are interconnection lines 1 to 5, wherein interconnection line 1 connects region 1 and region 2, interconnection line 2 connects region 1 and region 3, interconnection line 3 connects region 2 and region 3, interconnection line 4 connects region 2 and region 4, and interconnection line 5 connects region 3 and region 4. When the 4 partitions perform independent power balance, region 1 and region 2 have a redundancy of 20GW, and region 3 and region 4 have a gap of 30GW and 10GW, respectively.
图5为根据本发明另一个优选实施方式的一个联络线跨区输电结果示意图。如图5所示,采用与示例性方法一中完全相同的联络线故障概率模型和联络线跨区支援模型对图4所示多区域电力系统进行2025年的联络线跨区支援时序生产模拟,在每条联络线的输电约束均为双向10GW的情况下,得到的联络线跨区输电结果为联络线2,3和5分别向区域3输电10GW,联络线4向区域4输电10GW,联络线1向区域1输电为0。此时,区域3缺口30GW完全得到支援,而区域4则仍存在10GW缺口。FIG5 is a schematic diagram of a tie line inter-regional transmission result according to another preferred embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG5, the tie line fault probability model and tie line inter-regional support model identical to those in the exemplary method 1 are used to simulate the tie line inter-regional support timing production in 2025 for the multi-regional power system shown in FIG4. When the transmission constraint of each tie line is 10GW in both directions, the tie line inter-regional transmission result obtained is that tie lines 2, 3 and 5 transmit 10GW to region 3 respectively, tie line 4 transmits 10GW to region 4, and tie line 1 transmits 0 to region 1. At this time, the gap of 30GW in region 3 is fully supported, while there is still a gap of 10GW in region 4.
图6为根据本发明另一个优选实施方式的另一个联络线跨区输电结果示意图。如图6所示,对于同一个多区域电力系统,在图5所述联络线跨区输电结果的基础上,将联络线4的容量扩建为20GW。对于相同的抽样场景再次进行联络线跨区输电结果的计算,得到联络线2,3和5分别向区域3输电10GW,联络线4向区域4输电20GW,联络线1向区域1输电为10GW。此时,区域3和区域4的缺口均得到支援。由此可见,采用本实施方式所述的方法,可以对未来的多区域电力系统的电力保供和新能源消纳进行合理的生产模拟,从而能够有效地对包含新能源的电力系统进行指导规划。Figure 6 is a schematic diagram of another interconnection line cross-regional transmission result according to another preferred embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Figure 6, for the same multi-regional power system, based on the interconnection line cross-regional transmission result described in Figure 5, the capacity of interconnection line 4 is expanded to 20GW. For the same sampling scenario, the interconnection line cross-regional transmission results are calculated again, and it is obtained that interconnection lines 2, 3 and 5 transmit 10GW to region 3 respectively, interconnection line 4 transmits 20GW to region 4, and interconnection line 1 transmits 10GW to region 1. At this time, the gaps in regions 3 and 4 are both supported. It can be seen that by adopting the method described in this embodiment, a reasonable production simulation can be performed on the power supply and new energy consumption of future multi-regional power systems, so that the power system containing new energy can be effectively guided and planned.
表1为在一个抽样场景下对上述4个区域进行2025年随机生产模拟得到的主要评价指标的结果。Table 1 shows the results of the main evaluation indicators obtained by random production simulation of the above four areas in 2025 under a sampling scenario.
表1Table 1
如表1所示,区域1的LOLP样本均值为0.02136,表明平均约有2.14%的时间存在电力缺口,则年电力不足时长的期望值为184.8小时,将所述年电力不足时长的期望与备用率时长进行比较,则可以判断该区域是否会存在电力不足。区域1的EENS指标为0.6017亿kWh表示区域1的电量缺口为0.6017亿kWh;MLNS指标给出全年最大电力缺口的功率数值,例如区域1最大电力缺口的样本均值为4771.1万kW;ENEUR指标给出新能源消纳的百分比,区域1新能源消纳率为100%。通过上述四个评价指标,则可以准确地评价每个抽样场景下区域的电力保供和新能源消纳水平。As shown in Table 1, the sample mean of LOLP in Region 1 is 0.02136, indicating that there is an electricity gap for an average of about 2.14% of the time. The expected value of the annual power shortage duration is 184.8 hours. By comparing the expected annual power shortage duration with the reserve rate duration, it can be determined whether there will be power shortage in the region. The EENS index of Region 1 is 60.17 million kWh, indicating that the power gap in Region 1 is 60.17 million kWh; the MLNS index gives the power value of the maximum power gap throughout the year, for example, the sample mean of the maximum power gap in Region 1 is 47.711 million kW; the ENEUR index gives the percentage of new energy consumption, and the new energy consumption rate in Region 1 is 100%. Through the above four evaluation indicators, the power supply and new energy consumption level of the region under each sampling scenario can be accurately evaluated.
图7为根据本发明另一个优选实施方式的多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟的一个评价指标抽样结果示意图。如图7所示,图7是根据区域1在多个抽样场景下进行跨区支援生产模拟而得到的LOLP指标生成的LOLP抽样结果示意图。根据所述直方图可知,LOLP值在抽样数量在120至140个的区间内最为集中。因此,在未来的实际电力规划中,以该区间的LOLP值来设置电力系统的备用率时长就能有效地保证该区域的电力保供。Figure 7 is a schematic diagram of an evaluation index sampling result of a multi-regional power system cross-regional support sequential production simulation according to another preferred embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Figure 7, Figure 7 is a schematic diagram of the LOLP sampling result generated by the LOLP index obtained by performing cross-regional support production simulation in region 1 under multiple sampling scenarios. According to the histogram, the LOLP value is most concentrated in the interval where the number of samples is between 120 and 140. Therefore, in the actual power planning in the future, setting the reserve rate duration of the power system based on the LOLP value of this interval can effectively ensure the power supply in the area.
通过上述两个实施例可知,本发明所述方法同时考虑新能源、常规机组及联络线的随机性,通过联络线故障概率模型和联络线跨区支援模型对多区域电力系统进行时序生产模拟,实现了对多区域电力系统未来运行情况下新能源贡献出力的可靠性的模拟,对新能源出力占比逐渐提高的新型电力系统的指导规划具有重要的参考意义。It can be seen from the above two embodiments that the method of the present invention simultaneously takes into account the randomness of new energy, conventional units and interconnection lines, and performs time-series production simulation on multi-regional power systems through interconnection line failure probability models and interconnection line cross-regional support models, thereby realizing simulation of the reliability of new energy contribution to power output under future operation of multi-regional power systems, which has important reference significance for guiding the planning of new power systems with a gradually increasing proportion of new energy output.
示例性系统Exemplary Systems
图8为根据本发明优选实施方式的多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟系统的结构示意图。如图8所示,本优选实施方式所述的多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟系统800包括:FIG8 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a multi-regional power system cross-region support sequential production simulation system according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG8 , the multi-regional power system cross-region support sequential production simulation system 800 described in this preferred embodiment includes:
数据获取模块801,用于获取多区域电力系统的分区数据和联络线数据,以及每个分区中的常规机组信息和新能源机组信息;The data acquisition module 801 is used to acquire the partition data and tie line data of the multi-region power system, as well as the conventional unit information and the new energy unit information in each partition;
抽样场景模块802,用于基于建立的常规机组出力模型和新能源出力序贯模型,根据所述常规机组信息和新能源机组信息随机生成多个所述多区域电力系统在任意时间序列的模拟出力场景,并将所述模拟出力场景作为跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景;The sampling scenario module 802 is used to randomly generate a plurality of simulated output scenarios of the multi-regional power system in any time sequence based on the established conventional unit output model and the new energy output sequential model according to the conventional unit information and the new energy unit information, and use the simulated output scenarios as sampling scenarios for cross-region support sequential production simulation;
跨区支援模块803,用于基于每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景,按照建立的联络线故障概率模型和联络线跨区支援模型对所述多区域电力系统进行时序生产模拟,确定联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果;The inter-regional support module 803 is used to perform a time-series production simulation on the multi-regional power system according to the established tie line failure probability model and tie line inter-regional support model based on the sampling scenario of each inter-regional support time-series production simulation, and determine the tie line inter-regional transmission result and the sub-regional power balance result;
输出结果模块804,用于根据每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果,计算考虑所述多区域电力系统保供和新能源消纳水平的概率评价指标并输出。The output result module 804 is used to calculate and output the probability evaluation index considering the supply guarantee and new energy consumption level of the multi-regional power system based on the inter-regional transmission results of the interconnection lines and the sub-regional power balance results of the sampling scenario of each inter-regional support timing production simulation.
优选地,所述跨区支援模块803基于每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景,按照建立的联络线故障概率模型和联络线跨区支援模型对所述多区域电力系统进行时序生产模拟,确定联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果,包括:Preferably, the inter-regional support module 803 performs a sequential production simulation on the multi-regional power system according to the established tie line failure probability model and tie line inter-regional support model based on the sampling scenario of each inter-regional support sequential production simulation, and determines the tie line inter-regional transmission result and the partition power balance result, including:
步骤1、选择第n个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景,其中,1≤n≤N;Step 1: Select the nth sampling scenario of cross-region support sequential production simulation, where 1≤n≤N;
步骤2、忽略跨区联络线作用,进行每个分区的新能源的独自电力平衡,确定各分区的第一电力盈余/缺口;Step 2: Ignoring the role of inter-district tie lines, balance the power of each sub-district's renewable energy independently to determine the first power surplus/gap of each sub-district;
步骤3、按照所述多区域电力系统常规机组利用小时均衡原则,确定每个分区的常规机组平均利用小时数,并结合所述第一电力盈余/第一电力缺口计算每个分区的第二电力盈余/缺口;Step 3: according to the principle of balancing the utilization hours of conventional units in the multi-regional power system, determine the average utilization hours of conventional units in each zone, and calculate the second power surplus/gap of each zone in combination with the first power surplus/first power gap;
步骤4、基于建立的联络线故障概率模型,随机生成所述多区域电力系统的联络线模拟故障结果;Step 4: randomly generating tie line fault simulation results of the multi-regional power system based on the established tie line fault probability model;
步骤5、考虑跨区联络线作用,根据所述联络线数据中的输电约束和所述联络线模拟故障结果,以及每个分区的第二电力盈余/第二电力缺口,采用建立的联络线跨区支援模型确定联络线跨区输电结果,并得到每个分区的最终电力盈余/缺口;Step 5: Considering the role of inter-regional tie lines, according to the transmission constraints in the tie line data and the simulated fault results of the tie lines, as well as the second power surplus/second power gap of each sub-area, the established tie line inter-regional support model is used to determine the tie line inter-regional transmission results, and the final power surplus/gap of each sub-area is obtained;
步骤6、按照预先建立的分区内部出力规则,根据所述联络线跨区输电结果,确定每个分区的机组出力组合,所述机组出力组合即为分区电量平衡结果,其中,所述机组出力组合中包括常规机组和新能源机组中的至少一种;Step 6: According to the pre-established internal output rules of the sub-areas and the inter-area power transmission results of the tie line, determine the unit output combination of each sub-area, the unit output combination is the sub-area power balance result, wherein the unit output combination includes at least one of a conventional unit and a new energy unit;
步骤7、根据每个分区的机组出力组合中的常规机组出力,设置的常规机组单位发电的能耗数据,以及常规机组使用能源的碳排放均值,计算每个分区的碳排放量;Step 7: Calculate the carbon emissions of each partition based on the output of the conventional units in the unit output combination of each partition, the set energy consumption data of the conventional units per unit of power generation, and the average carbon emissions of the energy used by the conventional units;
步骤8,令n=n+1,当n≤N时,转至步骤1,其中,N为生成的跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的总数量。Step 8, let n=n+1, when n≤N, go to step 1, where N is the total number of sampling scenarios generated for cross-region support sequential production simulation.
优选地,所述跨区支援模块803基于建立的联络线故障概率模型,随机生成所述多区域电力系统的联络线模拟故障结果,包括:Preferably, the cross-region support module 803 randomly generates tie line simulation failure results of the multi-region power system based on the established tie line failure probability model, including:
对于所述多区域电力系统的每个联络线,按照第n个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的时间序列,基于建立的联络线故障概率模型随机生成所述联络线的联络线模拟故障数据,其中,所述联络线故障概率模型包括联络线故障次数概率模型和联络线故障状态维持时间概率模型,具体地:For each tie line of the multi-regional power system, according to the time series of the sampling scenario of the n-th cross-regional support sequential production simulation, tie line simulation fault data of the tie line is randomly generated based on the established tie line fault probability model, wherein the tie line fault probability model includes a tie line fault number probability model and a tie line fault state maintenance time probability model, specifically:
联络线故障出现的次数服从泊松分布,所述联络线故障次数概率模型的表达式为:The number of tie line faults follows Poisson distribution, and the expression of the tie line fault probability model is:
式中,k表示基于对应时间序列的历史故障数据确定的对应时间序列中出现的故障次数,λ表示基于对应时间序列的历史故障数据确定的对应时间序列的平均故障次数,P(X=k)表示基于对应时间序列的历史故障数据确定的对应时间序列中出现的故障次数为k时的概率;Where k represents the number of failures in the corresponding time series determined based on the historical failure data of the corresponding time series, λ represents the average number of failures in the corresponding time series determined based on the historical failure data of the corresponding time series, and P(X=k) represents the probability when the number of failures in the corresponding time series determined based on the historical failure data of the corresponding time series is k;
联络线故障状态维持时间服从指数分布,所述联络线故障状态维持时间概率模型f(x)和F(x)的表达式为:The tie line fault state maintenance time follows an exponential distribution, and the expressions of the tie line fault state maintenance time probability models f(x) and F(x) are:
式中,x表示基于对应时间序列的历史故障数据确定的对应时间序列的故障状态维持时间,f(x)表示故障状态维持时间分布的密度函数,F(x)表示故障状态维持时间分布的概率分布函数,θ表示分布的期望值, h表示基于对应时间序列的历史故障数据确定的对应时间序列的平均故障时长,SF表示所述联络线在所述多区域电力系统中的运行系数,EFOR表示等效强迫停运率,T表示对应时间序列的时长。Wherein, x represents the fault state maintenance time of the corresponding time series determined based on the historical fault data of the corresponding time series, f(x) represents the density function of the fault state maintenance time distribution, F(x) represents the probability distribution function of the fault state maintenance time distribution, θ represents the expected value of the distribution, h represents the average fault duration of the corresponding time series determined based on the historical fault data of the corresponding time series, SF represents the operation coefficient of the tie line in the multi-regional power system, EFOR represents the equivalent forced outage rate, and T represents the duration of the corresponding time series.
优选地,所述跨区支援模块803考虑跨区联络线作用,根据所述联络线数据中的输电约束和所述联络线模拟故障结果,以及每个分区的第二电力盈余/第二电力缺口,采用建立的联络线跨区支援模型确定联络线跨区输电结果,其中,所述联络线跨区支援模型的目标函数以联络线有功损耗最小,并叠加存在电力缺口的分区的功率偏差的平方得到,所述目标函数的表达式为:Preferably, the inter-regional support module 803 considers the role of inter-regional tie lines, and determines the tie line inter-regional transmission results using the established tie line inter-regional support model according to the transmission constraints in the tie line data and the tie line simulated fault results, as well as the second power surplus/second power gap of each partition, wherein the objective function of the tie line inter-regional support model is obtained by minimizing the tie line active loss and superimposing the square of the power deviation of the partition with power gap, and the expression of the objective function is:
式中,PEX—— 联络线功率安排向量;Where, P EX —— tie line power arrangement vector;
PZN——分区的受入外来功率安排向量;P ZN ——the incoming external power arrangement vector of the zone;
NEX——联络线数量;N EX ——Number of contact lines;
NZN——分区的数量;N ZN – number of partitions;
PEX.i——第i个联络线的功率安排值,定义送端流向受端为正方向;P EX.i ——Power arrangement value of the ith tie line, which defines the flow from the sending end to the receiving end as the positive direction;
PZN.i——第i个分区受入外来功率的数值;P ZN.i ——the value of the external power received by the ith zone;
DZN.i——第i个分区的供电缺口,该值大于零表示存在缺口,小于零表示对外支援的能力;D ZN.i ——The power supply gap of the ith zone. A value greater than zero indicates a gap, and a value less than zero indicates the ability to provide external support;
ki——第i个联络线功率项的系数,取1.0,当电阻及联络线电压已知时可取R/U2;k i ——coefficient of the power term of the ith tie line, taken as 1.0. When the resistance and tie line voltage are known, R/U 2 can be taken;
所述目标函数需满足的等式约束,即每个分区受入的功率为与其相关各联络线安排功率之和,所述等式表达式如下:The objective function needs to satisfy the equality constraint that the power received by each partition is the sum of the powers arranged by the tie lines related to it. The equality expression is as follows:
式中,j表示所述多区域电力系统中与第i个分区连接的第j条联络线;Wherein, j represents the jth tie line connected to the i-th partition in the multi-region power system;
所述目标函数还需满足不等式约束,即每个联络线的输送功率受到正向和反向限额红豆,每个分区的受入功率受到分区电力缺口的约束,所述不等式的表达式如下:The objective function also needs to satisfy the inequality constraint, that is, the transmission power of each tie line is subject to the forward and reverse limit red beans, and the input power of each partition is subject to the partition power gap constraint. The expression of the inequality is as follows:
式中, PEXi.pos——第i个联络线的正向输送功率上限;Where, P EXi.pos is the upper limit of the forward transmission power of the ith tie line;
PEXi.neg——第i个联络线的反向输送功率上限; P EXi.neg ——the upper limit of the reverse transmission power of the ith tie line;
Di——第i个分区的电力缺口,当 Di大于0时,表示存在缺口,当 Di小于0时,表示存在电力冗余; D i ——power gap of the ith partition. When D i is greater than 0, it means there is a gap. When D i is less than 0, it means there is power redundancy.
对于所述存在等式约束和不等式约束的目标函数,通过引入拉格良日乘子,得到消去所述等式约束的目标函数表达式;For the objective function with equality constraints and inequality constraints, by introducing Lagrange multipliers, an objective function expression for eliminating the equality constraints is obtained;
根据拉格朗日极值条件,生成消去所述等式约束的目标函数表达式的线性方程,并采用选主元的消去法对所述线性方程求解;According to the Lagrange extreme value condition, a linear equation of the objective function expression that eliminates the equality constraint is generated, and the linear equation is solved by using the elimination method of the selected principal element;
当所述线性方程的解全部在预先设置的约束范围内,且满足所述不等式约束时,将所述线性方程的解确定为所述多区域电力系统的联络线跨区输电结果。When all solutions of the linear equations are within a preset constraint range and satisfy the inequality constraint, the solutions of the linear equations are determined as the inter-regional power transmission results of the interconnection lines of the multi-regional power system.
优选地,所述跨区支援模块803按照预先建立的分区内部出力规则,根据所述联络线跨区输电结果,确定每个分区的机组出力组合,其中,所述分区内部出力规则包括:Preferably, the inter-region support module 803 determines the unit output combination of each sub-region according to the pre-established sub-region internal output rules and the inter-region power transmission results of the tie line, wherein the sub-region internal output rules include:
根据所述联络线跨区输电结果,对于需要跨区输出电力的分区中的常规机组和新能源机组,优先安排零碳机组出力;According to the inter-regional power transmission results of the tie line, for conventional units and new energy units in the sub-regions that need to output power across regions, zero-carbon units are given priority;
当存在抽水蓄能时,综合安排零碳机组和抽水蓄能出力;When pumped storage is present, the output of zero-carbon units and pumped storage is arranged comprehensively;
当上述出力不能满足跨区输出电力要求时,安排火电出力,其中,火电出力中的燃气机组和燃煤机组为竞争关系,按照利用小时数相等原则进行安排。When the above output cannot meet the cross-regional power output requirements, thermal power output will be arranged. Among them, the gas-fired units and coal-fired units in the thermal power output are in a competitive relationship and are arranged according to the principle of equal utilization hours.
优选地,所述输出结果模块804根据每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景的联络线跨区输电结果和分区电量平衡结果,计算考虑所述多区域电力系统保供和新能源消纳水平的概率评价指标并输出,其中,所述概率评价指标包括每个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景对应的时间序列的电力不足概率,电量不足期望值,最大电力缺口值和新能源利用率期望值。Preferably, the output result module 804 calculates and outputs the probability evaluation index considering the power supply guarantee and new energy consumption level of the multi-regional power system according to the inter-regional transmission results of the interconnection lines and the sub-regional power balance results of the sampling scenarios of each inter-regional support sequential production simulation, wherein the probability evaluation index includes the power shortage probability of the time series corresponding to the sampling scenarios of each inter-regional support sequential production simulation, the expected value of power shortage, the maximum power gap value and the expected value of new energy utilization rate.
本优选实施方式所述的多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟系统基于建立的常规机组出力模型和新能源出力序贯模型,根据多区域电力系统中常规机组和新能源机组的参数生成多个跨区支援时序生产模拟的抽样场景,并基于建立的联络线故障概率模型和联络线跨区支援模型对每个抽样场景进行跨区支援时序生产模拟的步骤与多区域电力系统跨区支援时序生产模拟方法采用的步骤相同,达到的技术效果也相同,在此不再赘述。The multi-regional power system inter-regional support sequential production simulation system described in this preferred embodiment is based on the established conventional unit output model and new energy output sequential model, and generates multiple sampling scenarios of inter-regional support sequential production simulation according to the parameters of conventional units and new energy units in the multi-regional power system. The steps of performing inter-regional support sequential production simulation for each sampling scenario are based on the established interconnection line failure probability model and interconnection line inter-regional support model. The steps are the same as the steps adopted by the multi-regional power system inter-regional support sequential production simulation method, and the technical effects achieved are also the same, which will not be repeated here.
已经通过参考少量实施方式描述了本发明。然而,本领域技术人员所公知的,正如附带的专利权利要求所限定的,除了本发明以上公开的其他的实施例等同地落在本发明的范围内。The invention has been described above with reference to a few embodiments. However, it is readily apparent to a person skilled in the art that other embodiments than the ones disclosed above are equally within the scope of the invention, as defined by the appended patent claims.
通常地,在权利要求中使用的所有术语都根据他们在技术领域的通常含义被解释,除非在其中被另外明确地定义。所有的参考“一个/所述/该[装置、组件等]”都被开放地解释为所述装置、组件等中的至少一个实例,除非另外明确地说明。这里公开的任何方法的步骤都没必要以公开的准确的顺序运行,除非明确地说明。Generally, all terms used in the claims are to be interpreted according to their ordinary meaning in the technical field, unless explicitly defined otherwise herein. All references to "a/said/the [means, components, etc.]" are to be openly interpreted as at least one instance of said means, components, etc., unless explicitly stated otherwise. The steps of any method disclosed herein do not necessarily have to be performed in the exact order disclosed, unless explicitly stated otherwise.
本领域内的技术人员应明白,本申请的实施例可提供为方法、系统、或计算机程序产品。因此,本申请可采用完全硬件实施例、完全软件实施例、或结合软件和硬件方面的实施例的形式。而且,本申请可采用在一个或多个其中包含有计算机可用程序代码的计算机可用存储介质(包括但不限于磁盘存储器、CD-ROM、光学存储器等)上实施的计算机程序产品的形式。Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program codes.
本申请是参照根据本申请实施例的方法、设备(系统)、和计算机程序产品的流程图和/或方框图来描述的。应理解可由计算机程序指令实现流程图和/或方框图中的每一流程和/或方框、以及流程图和/或方框图中的流程和/或方框的结合。可提供这些计算机程序指令到通用计算机、专用计算机、嵌入式处理机或其他可编程数据处理设备的处理器以产生一个机器,使得通过计算机或其他可编程数据处理设备的处理器执行的指令产生用于实现在流程图一个流程或多个流程和/或方框图一个方框或多个方框中指定的功能的装置。The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and/or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and/or box in the flowchart and/or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and/or boxes in the flowchart and/or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate a device for implementing the functions specified in one process or multiple processes in the flowchart and/or one box or multiple boxes in the block diagram.
这些计算机程序指令也可存储在能引导计算机或其他可编程数据处理设备以特定方式工作的计算机可读存储器中,使得存储在该计算机可读存储器中的指令产生包括指令装置的制造品,该指令装置实现在流程图一个流程或多个流程和/或方框图一个方框或多个方框中指定的功能。These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce a manufactured product including an instruction device that implements the functions specified in one or more processes in the flowchart and/or one or more boxes in the block diagram.
这些计算机程序指令也可装载到计算机或其他可编程数据处理设备上,使得在计算机或其他可编程设备上执行一系列操作步骤以产生计算机实现的处理,从而在计算机或其他可编程设备上执行的指令提供用于实现在流程图一个流程或多个流程和/或方框图一个方框或多个方框中指定的功能的步骤。These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operational steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, whereby the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable device provide steps for implementing the functions specified in one or more processes in the flowchart and/or one or more boxes in the block diagram.
最后应当说明的是:以上实施例仅用以说明本发明的技术方案而非对其限制,尽管参照上述实施例对本发明进行了详细的说明,所属领域的普通技术人员应当理解:依然可以对本发明的具体实施方式进行修改或者等同替换,而未脱离本发明精神和范围的任何修改或者等同替换,其均应涵盖在本发明的权利要求保护范围之内。Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the relevant field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents, and any modifications or equivalent replacements that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.
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