CN116436090A - Low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method - Google Patents
Low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method Download PDFInfo
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- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/004—Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J13/00—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network
- H02J13/00006—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network characterised by information or instructions transport means between the monitoring, controlling or managing units and monitored, controlled or operated power network element or electrical equipment
- H02J13/00028—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network characterised by information or instructions transport means between the monitoring, controlling or managing units and monitored, controlled or operated power network element or electrical equipment involving the use of Internet protocols
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- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/007—Arrangements for selectively connecting the load or loads to one or several among a plurality of power lines or power sources
- H02J3/0075—Arrangements for selectively connecting the load or loads to one or several among a plurality of power lines or power sources for providing alternative feeding paths between load and source according to economic or energy efficiency considerations, e.g. economic dispatch
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
- H02J3/46—Controlling of the sharing of output between the generators, converters, or transformers
- H02J3/466—Scheduling the operation of the generators, e.g. connecting or disconnecting generators to meet a given demand
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
- H02J3/46—Controlling of the sharing of output between the generators, converters, or transformers
- H02J3/48—Controlling the sharing of the in-phase component
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
- H02J3/46—Controlling of the sharing of output between the generators, converters, or transformers
- H02J3/50—Controlling the sharing of the out-of-phase component
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
- H02J2203/10—Power transmission or distribution systems management focussing at grid-level, e.g. load flow analysis, node profile computation, meshed network optimisation, active network management or spinning reserve management
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
- H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2300/00—Systems for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by decentralized, dispersed, or local generation
- H02J2300/20—The dispersed energy generation being of renewable origin
- H02J2300/22—The renewable source being solar energy
- H02J2300/24—The renewable source being solar energy of photovoltaic origin
- H02J2300/26—The renewable source being solar energy of photovoltaic origin involving maximum power point tracking control for photovoltaic sources
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation, in particular to a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method, which aims at the problems of poor stability, inaccurate reference data, low-light power generation efficiency reduction, high input cost, incapability of power prediction and the like of the current power grid, and provides the following scheme that: s1: photovoltaic power generation equipment distribution and scheme; the invention aims to provide a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system, automatically collect real-time operation data of a photovoltaic power station, predict trend, reduce data errors, improve accuracy of a prediction result, automatically receive a scheduling plan curve issued by a scheduling main station system by adopting AGC automatic power control, meet continuously changing user power demands, reduce operation cost, improve power grid stability, increase power grid capacity of absorbing light, help the photovoltaic power station reduce economic loss caused by electricity limiting, improve operation management efficiency of the photovoltaic power station and improve operation stability of the power grid.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation, in particular to a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method.
Background
Solar energy is a clean, efficient and never-failing new energy source. In the new century, various governments have made solar energy use of as important content for sustainable development of countries. The data show that the worldwide photovoltaic industry will accumulate to 14-15GW, which indicates that the worldwide photovoltaic industry has tremendous development space. In summary, from the international development trend of energy utilization, photovoltaic power generation will eventually enter the electric market in the role of alternative energy. Photovoltaic power generation is expected to account for 5% -20% of the total power generation in the world by 2030.
The world photovoltaic market has changed greatly, and the power supply problem is solved by special application fields such as remote rural areas, communication equipment, weather stations, navigation marks and the like, and the development of the power supply is gradually carried out to the conventional power supply direction and the commercial application direction of grid-connected power generation and building combination. The development of photovoltaic technology and photovoltaic industry is promoted by mid-long term development planning of the male-boy in the United states, japan, european Union, india and the like, which promotes the development of the new energy industry. The world photovoltaic industry is rapidly developing at an average annual growth rate of 31.2%, and is the industry with the highest global growth rate, and has become one of the most interesting and fastest growing energy industries in the world. Therefore, we propose a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the problems that the power grid stability is poor, reference data is inaccurate, the generating efficiency is reduced by weak light, the input cost is high, the power prediction cannot be performed and the like in the prior art, and provides a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method comprises the following steps:
s1: the distribution and scheme of the photovoltaic power generation equipment are that a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, and the photovoltaic array is regulated to carry out MPPT control;
s2: setting a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system, and processing real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system;
s3: according to the power grid dispatching mechanism instruction, the active power output, the reactive capacity and the voltage of the power supply are regulated;
s4: respectively adopting ultra-short-term prediction, short-term prediction and medium-long term prediction according to different periods;
s5: the 5G communication terminal, the longitudinal encryption, the remote machine and the AGC control are integrated, and the control and adjustment command sent by the dispatching master station to the substation are executed;
s6: and setting a background remote monitoring system by adopting AGC automatic power control.
Preferably, in the step S1, a photovoltaic power generation equipment distribution and scheme is designed, including an access system scheme dividing principle, an access voltage class, grid connection point selection and a typical scheme design, and the secondary includes line protection, bus protection, a frequency voltage abnormality emergency control device and anti-islanding protection; scheduling management, a telemechanical system, a time setting mode, a communication protocol, information transmission, safety protection, power control and electric energy quality monitoring; metering device, gateway point setting, equipment interface, channel and protocol requirements; the communication includes channel requirements, communication mode, communication device power supply, and communication device arrangement.
Preferably, in the step S1, a photovoltaic power generation system is provided, after photovoltaic conversion is implemented by a photovoltaic module, direct current is distributed to a direct current load and a DC/AC inverter device through a controller, alternating current meeting the power quality requirement is output, the alternating current is boosted through a box transformer and then is connected to a power grid, then is reduced in voltage through the box transformer and is supplied to an alternating current load, and finally, the alternating current load is fed back to a photovoltaic array through DC/AC inverter control, so that the photovoltaic array is regulated to perform MPPT control; the numerical weather forecast system provides weather forecast information of the current day and several days in the future, and the weather forecast information of the place where the photovoltaic power station is located is transmitted to the forecast database system in real time and is processed; and the prediction database system is used for storing and managing weather forecast information history information and output power history information of the photovoltaic power station.
Preferably, in the step S2, a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system is set, real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system are processed according to a prediction algorithm, a proper power prediction mathematical model is selected, and an output power prediction value and a prediction error of the current day are calculated; an EMS energy management system is adopted, and the EMS energy management system consists of two parts, namely a basic function and an application function, wherein the basic function comprises: computer, operating system and EMS braced system, the application function includes: data acquisition and monitoring, automatic power generation control and planning and network application analysis 3, and a user in the system manages the prediction system in real time through an operation interface.
Preferably, in the step S3, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system connected to the grid through a voltage level of 0.4kV should have active power adjustment capability, active power output of the power supply is adjusted according to an instruction of the grid dispatching mechanism, reactive power capacity and voltage adjustment, a power factor of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system should be continuously adjustable within a range of 0.95-0.95, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system has reactive power output adjustment capability according to a voltage level of a grid connection point within a reactive power output range thereof, and the adjustment mode, the reference voltage and the voltage adjustment difference ratio parameter are given by the grid dispatching mechanism.
Preferably, in the step S4, ultra-short-term prediction is adopted for less than 4 hours, mainly statistical and physical hybrid methods are adopted, cloud layer movement conditions are presumed according to satellite cloud images shot by geosynchronous satellites, irradiation intensity reaching the ground is predicted, and power is predicted through a solar irradiation intensity and power conversion efficiency model; short-term prediction is adopted for less than 24 hours, mainly weather forecast information data is used as a main material, and a predicted value of the output power of the photovoltaic power station is obtained by establishing a mapping relation between historical input data and historical output power and is used for power balance and economic dispatch of a power system, planning of a day-ahead power generation, electric power market trading and transient stability assessment.
Preferably, in the step S4, a period greater than one week is predicted by medium-long term, and the method is mainly used for maintenance arrangement of a system and prediction of power generation capacity, takes weather forecast information data as input, researches the characteristics of photovoltaic power generation equipment, establishes a corresponding mathematical model of photovoltaic power generation and weather forecast information data, and further predicts photovoltaic power generation; and (3) finding out the internal law of the historical data, eliminating the pathological data points, establishing a function mapping relation between the historical data and the output power, and further predicting the photovoltaic power generation power.
Preferably, in S5, the 5G communication terminal, the longitudinal encryption, the remote engine and the AGC control are integrated, the distributed photovoltaic of 10 kv or above is accessed to the dispatching master station in a direct acquisition mode, the function of automatic power control is performed simultaneously, a 5G communication module is set, an SA independent networking mode is set, a 5G power slice private network is connected through a SIM card, and then a dispatching master station safety access area is connected, the dispatching master station private network communication is realized, the longitudinal encryption is performed, the 5G communication module is set, the SA independent networking mode is set, the 5G power slice private network is connected through the SIM card, and then the dispatching master station safety access area is connected, the communication with the dispatching master station private network is realized, the analog quantity and the state quantity of the running state in the dispatching master station are collected, the dispatching master station is monitored and uploaded, and the control and regulation command sent to the substation by the dispatching master station are executed, and finally the functions of remote signaling, remote measurement, remote control and remote dispatching are realized.
Preferably, in the step S6, AGC automatic power control is adopted to receive and automatically execute active power control signals and reactive power control signals remotely sent by the scheduling master station, and power output of the station is controlled according to an optimal strategy, so that the maximum active power value and the active power variation value of the station are ensured not to exceed given values of the scheduling master station, and meanwhile, system operation regulation state and parameter information are returned to the scheduling master station.
Preferably, in the step S6, a background remote monitoring system is set, the whole wireless networking scheme is composed of a data center end, a network transmission end and field devices, the field devices are connected with a wireless router, the wireless router establishes a VPN encryption channel with a dispatch center service through a 5G cellular network, the terminal devices and the data center server are in bidirectional communication through establishing the VPN channel, and the data monitoring center realizes remote monitoring by collecting and controlling data of the field devices.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows:
1. the photovoltaic power generation power prediction system is arranged, the ultra-short-term power prediction data of 4 hours in the future and the short-term power prediction data of 72 hours in the future are provided, accurate reference basis is provided for the power station to make an output plan, real-time operation data of the photovoltaic power station, monitoring data of an automatic weather station and numerical weather forecast data are automatically acquired, manual acquisition errors are avoided, and manual workload is reduced.
2. And by adopting AGC automatic power control, a scheduling plan curve issued by a scheduling master station system is automatically received, and the reactive power of an inverter group and SGV/SVC is optimally distributed according to the calculated adjustable margin, so that the reactive power output of the whole electric field or the voltage of a grid-connected point tracks the scheduling plan curve.
The invention aims to provide a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system, automatically collect real-time operation data of a photovoltaic power station, predict trend, reduce data errors, improve accuracy of prediction results, automatically receive a scheduling plan curve issued by a scheduling main station system by adopting AGC automatic power control, control output of a frequency modulation unit so as to meet continuously changing power demands of users, enable the system to be in an economic operation state, reduce operation cost, improve power grid stability, increase power grid consumption photoelectric energy capacity, help the photovoltaic power station reduce economic losses caused by electricity limiting, improve operation management efficiency of the photovoltaic power station and improve operation stability of the power grid.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method provided by the invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clear and complete, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments.
Example 1
Referring to fig. 1, a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method includes the steps of:
s1: the distribution and scheme of the photovoltaic power generation equipment are that a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, and the photovoltaic array is regulated to carry out MPPT control;
s2: setting a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system, and processing real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system;
s3: according to the power grid dispatching mechanism instruction, the active power output, the reactive capacity and the voltage of the power supply are regulated;
s4: respectively adopting ultra-short-term prediction, short-term prediction and medium-long term prediction according to different periods;
s5: the 5G communication terminal, the longitudinal encryption, the remote machine and the AGC control are integrated, and the control and adjustment command sent by the dispatching master station to the substation are executed;
s6: and setting a background remote monitoring system by adopting AGC automatic power control.
In the embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation equipment distribution and scheme is designed, including an access system scheme dividing principle, an access voltage class, grid connection point selection and typical scheme design, and secondarily including line protection, bus protection, a frequency voltage abnormality emergency control device and anti-islanding protection; scheduling management, a telemechanical system, a time setting mode, a communication protocol, information transmission, safety protection, power control and electric energy quality monitoring; metering device, gateway point setting, equipment interface, channel and protocol requirements; the communication includes channel requirements, communication mode, communication device power supply, and communication device arrangement.
In the embodiment, a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, after photovoltaic conversion is implemented by a photovoltaic module, direct current is distributed to a direct current load and a DC/AC inversion device through a controller, alternating current meeting the electric energy quality requirement is output, the alternating current is boosted through a box transformer and then is connected to a power grid, then is reduced in voltage through the box transformer and is supplied to an alternating current load, and finally, the alternating current load is fed back to a photovoltaic array through DC/AC inversion control so as to adjust the photovoltaic array to carry out MPPT control; the numerical weather forecast system provides weather forecast information of the current day and several days in the future, and the weather forecast information of the place where the photovoltaic power station is located is transmitted to the forecast database system in real time and is processed; and the prediction database system is used for storing and managing weather forecast information history information and output power history information of the photovoltaic power station.
In the embodiment, a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system is arranged, real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system are processed according to a prediction algorithm, a proper power prediction mathematical model is selected, and an output power prediction value and a prediction error of the current day are calculated; an EMS energy management system is adopted, and the EMS energy management system consists of two parts, namely a basic function and an application function, wherein the basic function comprises: computer, operating system and EMS braced system, the application function includes: data acquisition and monitoring, automatic power generation control and planning and network application analysis 3, and a user in the system manages the prediction system in real time through an operation interface.
In this embodiment, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system connected to the grid through the voltage level of 0.4kV should have active power adjustment capability, and according to the power grid dispatching mechanism instruction, the active power output of the power supply is adjusted, the reactive capacity and the voltage adjustment, the power factor of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system should be continuously adjustable within the range of 0.95-0.95, and the distributed photovoltaic power generation system has the capability of adjusting the reactive output according to the voltage level of the grid connection point within the reactive output range thereof, and the adjustment mode, the reference voltage and the voltage adjustment rate parameter are given by the power grid dispatching mechanism.
In the embodiment, ultra-short-term prediction is adopted for less than 4 hours, a statistical and physical hybrid method is mainly adopted, cloud layer movement conditions are estimated according to satellite cloud images shot by geosynchronous satellites, irradiation intensity reaching the ground is predicted, and power is predicted through a solar irradiation intensity and power conversion efficiency model; short-term prediction is adopted for less than 24 hours, mainly weather forecast information data is used as a main material, and a predicted value of the output power of the photovoltaic power station is obtained by establishing a mapping relation between historical input data and historical output power and is used for power balance and economic dispatch of a power system, planning of a day-ahead power generation, electric power market trading and transient stability assessment.
In the embodiment, the period is longer than one week, medium-long-term prediction is adopted, the method is mainly used for predicting maintenance arrangement and power generation capacity of a system, weather forecast information data are used as input, characteristics of photovoltaic power generation equipment are researched, a corresponding mathematical model of photovoltaic power generation and weather forecast information data is established, and photovoltaic power generation is further predicted; and (3) finding out the internal law of the historical data, eliminating the pathological data points, establishing a function mapping relation between the historical data and the output power, and further predicting the photovoltaic power generation power.
In this embodiment, the 5G communication terminal, the longitudinal encryption, the remote engine and the AGC control are integrated, the distributed photovoltaic of 10 kv or above is accessed to the dispatching master station in a direct acquisition mode, the function of automatic power control is performed simultaneously, a 5G communication module is set, an SA independent networking mode is set, a 5G power slice private network is connected through a SIM card, and then the dispatching master station safety access area is connected, the dispatching master station private network communication is realized, the longitudinal encryption is performed, the 5G communication module is set, the SA independent networking mode is set, the 5G power slice private network is connected through the SIM card, and then the dispatching master station safety access area is connected, the dispatching master station private network communication is realized, the analog quantity and the state quantity of the running state in the dispatching master station are collected, the dispatching master station is monitored and uploaded, and the control and regulation command sent to the substation by the dispatching master station is executed, and finally the remote signaling, remote control and remote regulation functions are realized.
In the embodiment, AGC automatic power control is adopted to receive and automatically execute active and reactive power control signals remotely transmitted by the dispatching master station, the power output of the dispatching master station is controlled according to an optimal strategy, the maximum active power value and the active power change value of the dispatching master station are ensured not to exceed given values of the dispatching master station, and meanwhile, system operation regulation state and parameter information are returned to the dispatching master station.
In the embodiment, a background remote monitoring system is arranged, the whole wireless networking scheme consists of a data center end, a network transmission end and field equipment, the field equipment is connected with a wireless router, the wireless router establishes a VPN encryption channel with a dispatching center service through a 5G cellular network, the terminal equipment and a data center server are in bidirectional communication through establishing the VPN channel, and the data monitoring center realizes remote monitoring by carrying out data acquisition and control on the field equipment.
Example two
Referring to fig. 1, a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method includes the steps of:
s1: the distribution and scheme of the photovoltaic power generation equipment are that a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, and the photovoltaic array is regulated to carry out MPPT control;
s2: setting a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system, and processing real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system;
S3: according to the power grid dispatching mechanism instruction, the active power output, the reactive capacity and the voltage of the power supply are regulated;
s4: respectively adopting ultra-short-term prediction, short-term prediction and medium-long term prediction according to different periods;
s5: the 5G communication terminal, the longitudinal encryption, the remote machine and the AGC control are integrated, and the control and adjustment command sent by the dispatching master station to the substation are executed;
s6: and setting a background remote monitoring system by adopting AGC automatic power control.
In the embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation equipment distribution and scheme is designed, including an access system scheme dividing principle, an access voltage class, grid connection point selection and typical scheme design, and secondarily including line protection, bus protection, a frequency voltage abnormality emergency control device and anti-islanding protection; the communication includes channel requirements, communication mode, communication device power supply, and communication device arrangement.
In the embodiment, a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, after photovoltaic module performs photoelectric conversion, direct current is distributed to a direct current load and a DC/AC inversion device through a controller, alternating current meeting the electric energy quality requirement is output, the alternating current is boosted through a box transformer and then connected to a power grid, then the alternating current load is supplied through voltage reduction of the box transformer, finally the alternating current load is fed back to a photovoltaic array through DC/AC inversion control, and weather forecast information of a place where a photovoltaic power station is located is transmitted to a forecast database system in real time and is processed; and the prediction database system is used for storing and managing weather forecast information history information and output power history information of the photovoltaic power station.
In this embodiment, a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system is set, real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system are processed according to a prediction algorithm, and an EMS energy management system is adopted, wherein the basic functions include: computer, operating system and EMS braced system, the application function includes: data acquisition and monitoring, automatic power generation control and planning and network application analysis 3, and a user in the system manages the prediction system in real time through an operation interface.
In this embodiment, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system connected to the grid through the 0.4kV voltage level should have active power adjustment capability, and the distributed photovoltaic power generation system has the capability of adjusting reactive power output according to the voltage level of the grid-connected point in the reactive power output range of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, and participates in voltage adjustment of the power grid, and the adjustment mode, the reference voltage and the voltage adjustment difference ratio parameters are given by the power grid dispatching mechanism.
In the embodiment, ultra-short-term prediction is adopted for less than 4 hours, a statistical and physical hybrid method is mainly adopted, cloud layer movement conditions are presumed according to satellite cloud images shot by geosynchronous satellites, short-term prediction is adopted for less than 24 hours, weather forecast information data is mainly used, and a predicted value of output power of a photovoltaic power station is obtained by establishing a mapping relation between historical input data and historical output power and is used for power balance and economic scheduling of a power system, planning of generation in the past, electric market trading and transient stability assessment.
In the embodiment, the period is longer than one week, medium-long-term prediction is adopted, the method is mainly used for predicting maintenance arrangement and power generation capacity of a system, weather forecast information data are used as input, pathological data points are eliminated, a function mapping relation between historical data and output power is established, and photovoltaic power generation power is further predicted.
In this embodiment, the 5G communication terminal, the longitudinal encryption, the remote engine and the AGC control are integrated, the distributed photovoltaic of 10 kv or above is accessed to the dispatching master station in a direct acquisition mode, the function of automatic power control is performed simultaneously, the 5G communication module is set, the SA independent networking mode is set, the 5G power slice private network is connected through the SIM card, and then the dispatching master station safe access area is connected, the private network communication of the dispatching master station is realized, the analog quantity and the state quantity of the running state in the station are collected, the monitoring and uploading to the dispatching master station are performed, the control and the regulation command sent to the substation by the dispatching master station are executed, and the remote signaling, the remote measuring, the remote control and the remote regulation functions are finally realized.
In the embodiment, AGC automatic power control is adopted to receive and automatically execute active and reactive power control signals remotely transmitted by the dispatching master station, the power output of the dispatching master station is controlled according to an optimal strategy, the maximum active power value and the active power change value of the dispatching master station are ensured not to exceed given values of the dispatching master station, and meanwhile, system operation regulation state and parameter information are returned to the dispatching master station.
In the embodiment, a background remote monitoring system is arranged, the whole wireless networking scheme consists of a data center end, a network transmission end and field equipment, the two-way communication between the terminal equipment and a data center server is realized by establishing a VPN channel, and the data monitoring center realizes remote monitoring by carrying out data acquisition and control on the field equipment.
Example III
Referring to fig. 1, a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method includes the steps of:
s1: the distribution and scheme of the photovoltaic power generation equipment are that a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, and the photovoltaic array is regulated to carry out MPPT control;
s2: setting a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system, and processing real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system;
s3: according to the power grid dispatching mechanism instruction, the active power output, the reactive capacity and the voltage of the power supply are regulated;
s4: respectively adopting ultra-short-term prediction, short-term prediction and medium-long term prediction according to different periods;
s5: the 5G communication terminal, the longitudinal encryption, the remote machine and the AGC control are integrated, and the control and adjustment command sent by the dispatching master station to the substation are executed;
s6: and setting a background remote monitoring system by adopting AGC automatic power control.
In the embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation equipment distribution and scheme is designed, including an access system scheme dividing principle, an access voltage class, grid connection point selection and typical scheme design, and secondarily including line protection, bus protection, a frequency voltage abnormality emergency control device and anti-islanding protection; scheduling management, a telemechanical system, a time setting mode, a communication protocol, information transmission, safety protection, power control and electric energy quality monitoring; metering device, gateway point setting, equipment interface, channel and protocol requirements; the communication includes channel requirements, communication mode, communication device power supply, and communication device arrangement.
In the embodiment, a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, after photovoltaic module performs photoelectric conversion, direct current is distributed to a direct current load and a DC/AC inverter through a controller, alternating current meeting the electric energy quality requirement is output, the alternating current is boosted through a box transformer and then is connected to a power grid, a numerical weather forecast system provides weather forecast information of the current day and several days in the future, and the weather forecast information of the place where a photovoltaic power station is located is transmitted to a forecast database system in real time and is processed; and the prediction database system is used for storing and managing weather forecast information history information and output power history information of the photovoltaic power station.
In this embodiment, a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system is set, real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system are processed according to a prediction algorithm, and an EMS energy management system is adopted, wherein the basic functions include: computer, operating system and EMS braced system, the application function includes: data acquisition and monitoring, automatic power generation control and planning and network application analysis 3, and a user in the system manages the prediction system in real time through an operation interface.
In this embodiment, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system connected to the grid through the 0.4kV voltage level should have active power adjustment capability, and adjust active power output of the power supply according to the instruction of the power grid dispatching mechanism, reactive capacity and voltage adjustment, and participate in the power grid voltage adjustment capability, and the adjustment mode, reference voltage and voltage differential rate parameters are given by the power grid dispatching mechanism.
In the embodiment, ultra-short-term prediction is adopted for less than 4 hours, a statistical and physical hybrid method is mainly adopted, cloud layer movement conditions are estimated according to satellite cloud patterns shot by geosynchronous satellites, irradiation intensity reaching the ground is predicted, a mapping relation between historical input data and historical output power is established through a solar irradiation intensity and power conversion efficiency model, and a predicted value of the output power of a photovoltaic power station is obtained and is used for power balance and economic scheduling of a power system, planning of generation in the future, electric market trading and transient stability assessment.
In the embodiment, the period is longer than one week, medium-long-term prediction is adopted, the method is mainly used for predicting maintenance arrangement and power generation capacity of a system, weather forecast information data are used as input, characteristics of photovoltaic power generation equipment are researched, a corresponding mathematical model of photovoltaic power generation and weather forecast information data is established, and photovoltaic power generation is further predicted; and (3) finding out the internal law of the historical data, eliminating the pathological data points, establishing a function mapping relation between the historical data and the output power, and further predicting the photovoltaic power generation power.
In this embodiment, the 5G communication terminal, the longitudinal encryption, the remote engine and the AGC control are integrated, the distributed photovoltaic of 10 kv or above is accessed to the scheduling master station in a direct acquisition mode, the function of automatic power control is performed simultaneously, the 5G communication module is set, the private network communication of the scheduling master station is realized, the longitudinal encryption is performed, the 5G communication module is set, the SA independent networking mode is set, the 5G power slice private network is connected through the SIM card, the safe access area of the scheduling master station is further connected, the private network communication of the scheduling master station is realized, the analog quantity and the state quantity of the running state in the station are collected, the monitoring and uploading to the scheduling master station are performed, and the control and the regulation command sent to the substation by the scheduling master station are performed, so that the remote signaling, the remote measurement, the remote control and the remote regulation functions are finally realized.
In the embodiment, AGC automatic power control is adopted to receive and automatically execute active and reactive power control signals remotely transmitted by the dispatching master station, the power output of the dispatching master station is controlled according to an optimal strategy, the maximum active power value and the active power change value of the dispatching master station are ensured not to exceed given values of the dispatching master station, and meanwhile, system operation regulation state and parameter information are returned to the dispatching master station.
In the embodiment, a background remote monitoring system is arranged, the whole wireless networking scheme consists of a data center end, a network transmission end and field equipment, the field equipment is connected with a wireless router, the wireless router establishes a VPN encryption channel with a dispatching center service through a 5G cellular network, the terminal equipment and a data center server are in bidirectional communication through establishing the VPN channel, and the data monitoring center realizes remote monitoring by carrying out data acquisition and control on the field equipment.
Example IV
Referring to fig. 1, a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method includes the steps of:
s1: the distribution and scheme of the photovoltaic power generation equipment are that a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, and the photovoltaic array is regulated to carry out MPPT control;
s2: setting a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system, and processing real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system;
S3: according to the power grid dispatching mechanism instruction, the active power output, the reactive capacity and the voltage of the power supply are regulated;
s4: respectively adopting ultra-short-term prediction, short-term prediction and medium-long term prediction according to different periods;
s5: the 5G communication terminal, the longitudinal encryption, the remote machine and the AGC control are integrated, and the control and adjustment command sent by the dispatching master station to the substation are executed;
s6: and setting a background remote monitoring system by adopting AGC automatic power control.
In the embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation equipment distribution and scheme is designed, including an access system scheme dividing principle, an access voltage class, grid connection point selection and typical scheme design, and secondarily including line protection, bus protection, a frequency voltage abnormality emergency control device and anti-islanding protection; scheduling management, a telemechanical system, a time setting mode, a communication protocol, information transmission, safety protection, power control and electric energy quality monitoring; metering device, gateway point setting, equipment interface, channel and protocol requirements; the communication includes channel requirements, communication mode, communication device power supply, and communication device arrangement.
In the embodiment, a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, after photovoltaic module performs photoelectric conversion, direct current is distributed to a direct current load and a DC/AC inverter through a controller, alternating current meeting the electric energy quality requirement is output, the alternating current is boosted through a box transformer and then is connected to a power grid, a numerical weather forecast system provides weather forecast information of the current day and several days in the future, and the weather forecast information of the place where a photovoltaic power station is located is transmitted to a forecast database system in real time and is processed; and the prediction database system is used for storing and managing weather forecast information history information and output power history information of the photovoltaic power station.
In the embodiment, a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system is arranged, real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system are processed according to a prediction algorithm, a proper power prediction mathematical model is selected, and an output power prediction value and a prediction error of the current day are calculated; an EMS energy management system is adopted, and the EMS energy management system consists of two parts, namely a basic function and an application function, wherein the basic function comprises: computer, operating system and EMS braced system, the application function includes: data acquisition and monitoring, automatic power generation control and planning and network application analysis 3, and a user in the system manages the prediction system in real time through an operation interface.
In this embodiment, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system connected to the grid through the 0.4kV voltage level should have active power adjustment capability, and the distributed photovoltaic power generation system has the capability of adjusting reactive power output according to the voltage level of the grid-connected point in the reactive power output range of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, and participates in voltage adjustment of the power grid, and the adjustment mode, the reference voltage and the voltage adjustment difference ratio parameters are given by the power grid dispatching mechanism.
In the embodiment, ultra-short-term prediction is adopted for less than 4 hours, a statistical and physical hybrid method is mainly adopted, cloud layer movement conditions are estimated according to satellite cloud images shot by geosynchronous satellites, irradiation intensity reaching the ground is predicted, and power is predicted through a solar irradiation intensity and power conversion efficiency model; short-term prediction is adopted for less than 24 hours, mainly weather forecast information data is used for power balance and economic dispatch of a power system, daily power generation planning, power market trading and transient stability assessment.
In the embodiment, the period is longer than one week, medium-long-term prediction is adopted, the method is mainly used for predicting maintenance arrangement and power generation capacity of a system, weather forecast information data are used as input, characteristics of photovoltaic power generation equipment are researched, a corresponding mathematical model of photovoltaic power generation and weather forecast information data is established, and photovoltaic power generation is further predicted; and (3) finding out the internal law of the historical data, eliminating the pathological data points, establishing a function mapping relation between the historical data and the output power, and further predicting the photovoltaic power generation power.
In this embodiment, fuse 5G communication terminal, vertical encryption, remote engine and AGC control, satisfy 10 kilovolts and above distributed photovoltaic and insert the dispatch main website in the mode of adopting directly, carry out automatic power control's function simultaneously, set up 5G communication module, set up the independent networking mode of SA, connect 5G electric power section private network through the SIM card, and then connect the dispatch main website safe access district, realize with the communication of dispatch main website private network, finally realize remote signaling, telemetering measurement, remote control, remote regulation function.
In the embodiment, AGC automatic power control is adopted to receive and automatically execute active and reactive power control signals remotely transmitted by the dispatching master station, the power output of the dispatching master station is controlled according to an optimal strategy, the maximum active power value and the active power change value of the dispatching master station are ensured not to exceed given values of the dispatching master station, and meanwhile, system operation regulation state and parameter information are returned to the dispatching master station.
In the embodiment, a background remote monitoring system is arranged, the whole wireless networking scheme consists of a data center end, a network transmission end and field equipment, the two-way communication between the terminal equipment and a data center server is realized by establishing a VPN channel, and the data monitoring center realizes remote monitoring by carrying out data acquisition and control on the field equipment.
Example five
Referring to fig. 1, a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method includes the steps of:
s1: the distribution and scheme of the photovoltaic power generation equipment are that a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, and the photovoltaic array is regulated to carry out MPPT control;
s2: setting a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system, and processing real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system;
s3: according to the power grid dispatching mechanism instruction, the active power output, the reactive capacity and the voltage of the power supply are regulated;
s4: respectively adopting ultra-short-term prediction, short-term prediction and medium-long term prediction according to different periods;
s5: the 5G communication terminal, the longitudinal encryption, the remote machine and the AGC control are integrated, and the control and adjustment command sent by the dispatching master station to the substation are executed;
s6: and setting a background remote monitoring system by adopting AGC automatic power control.
In the embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation equipment distribution and scheme is designed, including an access system scheme dividing principle, an access voltage class, grid connection point selection and typical scheme design, and secondarily including line protection, bus protection, a frequency voltage abnormality emergency control device and anti-islanding protection; scheduling management, a telemechanical system, a time setting mode, a communication protocol, information transmission, safety protection, power control and electric energy quality monitoring; metering device, gateway point setting, equipment interface, channel and protocol requirements; the communication includes channel requirements, communication mode, communication device power supply, and communication device arrangement.
In the embodiment, a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, after photovoltaic module performs photoelectric conversion, direct current is distributed to a direct current load and a DC/AC inverter through a controller, alternating current meeting the electric energy quality requirement is output, the alternating current is boosted through a box transformer and then is connected to a power grid, a numerical weather forecast system provides weather forecast information of the current day and several days in the future, and the weather forecast information of the place where a photovoltaic power station is located is transmitted to a forecast database system in real time and is processed; and the prediction database system is used for storing and managing weather forecast information history information and output power history information of the photovoltaic power station.
In the embodiment, a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system is arranged, real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system are processed according to a prediction algorithm, a proper power prediction mathematical model is selected, and an output power prediction value and a prediction error of the current day are calculated; an EMS energy management system is adopted, and the EMS energy management system consists of two parts, namely a basic function and an application function, wherein the basic function comprises: computer, operating system and EMS braced system, the application function includes: data acquisition and monitoring, automatic power generation control and planning and network application analysis 3, and a user in the system manages the prediction system in real time through an operation interface.
In this embodiment, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system connected to the grid through the 0.4kV voltage level should have active power adjustment capability, and the distributed photovoltaic power generation system has the capability of adjusting reactive power output according to the voltage level of the grid-connected point in the reactive power output range of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, and participates in voltage adjustment of the power grid, and the adjustment mode, the reference voltage and the voltage adjustment difference ratio parameters are given by the power grid dispatching mechanism.
In the embodiment, ultra-short-term prediction is adopted for less than 4 hours, a statistical and physical hybrid method is mainly adopted, cloud layer movement conditions are estimated according to satellite cloud patterns shot by geosynchronous satellites, irradiation intensity reaching the ground is predicted, a mapping relation between historical input data and historical output power is established through a solar irradiation intensity and power conversion efficiency model, and a predicted value of the output power of a photovoltaic power station is obtained and is used for power balance and economic scheduling of a power system, planning of generation in the future, electric market trading and transient stability assessment.
In the embodiment, the period is longer than one week, medium-long-term prediction is adopted, the method is mainly used for predicting maintenance arrangement and power generation capacity of a system, weather forecast information data is used as input, and photovoltaic power generation power is further predicted; and (3) finding out the internal law of the historical data, eliminating the pathological data points, establishing a function mapping relation between the historical data and the output power, and further predicting the photovoltaic power generation power.
In this embodiment, the 5G communication terminal, the longitudinal encryption, the remote engine and the AGC control are integrated, the distributed photovoltaic of 10 kv or above is accessed to the dispatching master station in a direct acquisition mode, the function of automatic power control is performed simultaneously, the 5G communication module is set, the SA independent networking mode is set, the 5G power slice private network is connected through the SIM card, and then the dispatching master station safe access area is connected, the private network communication of the dispatching master station is realized, the analog quantity and the state quantity of the running state in the station are collected, the monitoring and uploading to the dispatching master station are performed, the control and the regulation command sent to the substation by the dispatching master station are executed, and the remote signaling, the remote measuring, the remote control and the remote regulation functions are finally realized.
In the embodiment, AGC automatic power control is adopted to receive and automatically execute active and reactive power control signals remotely transmitted by the dispatching master station, the power output of the dispatching master station is controlled according to an optimal strategy, the maximum active power value and the active power change value of the dispatching master station are ensured not to exceed given values of the dispatching master station, and meanwhile, system operation regulation state and parameter information are returned to the dispatching master station.
In the embodiment, a background remote monitoring system is arranged, the whole wireless networking scheme consists of a data center end, a network transmission end and field equipment, the two-way communication between the terminal equipment and a data center server is realized by establishing a VPN channel, and the data monitoring center realizes remote monitoring by carrying out data acquisition and control on the field equipment.
Comparative example one
The first difference from the embodiment is that S1: the method comprises the steps of setting a power generation equipment distribution and scheme, setting a photovoltaic power generation system, adjusting a photovoltaic array to carry out MPPT control, designing the photovoltaic power generation equipment distribution and scheme, wherein the method comprises the steps of accessing a system scheme dividing principle, accessing voltage classes, selecting grid connection points, designing a typical scheme, and secondarily comprising line protection, bus protection, a frequency voltage abnormality emergency control device and anti-islanding protection; scheduling management, a telemechanical system, a time setting mode, a communication protocol, information transmission, safety protection, power control and electric energy quality monitoring; metering device, gateway point setting, equipment interface, channel and protocol requirements; the communication comprises channel requirements, a communication mode, communication equipment power supply and communication equipment arrangement, a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, after photovoltaic conversion is implemented by a photovoltaic module, direct current is distributed to a direct current load and a DC/AC inversion device through a controller, alternating current meeting the electric energy quality requirements is output, the alternating current is boosted through a box transformer and then is connected to a power grid, then the alternating current load is supplied through voltage reduction of the box transformer, and finally the alternating current load is fed back to a photovoltaic array through DC/AC inversion control so as to adjust the photovoltaic array to carry out MPPT control; the numerical weather forecast system provides weather forecast information of the current day and several days in the future, and the weather forecast information of the place where the photovoltaic power station is located is transmitted to the forecast database system in real time and is processed; and the prediction database system is used for storing and managing weather forecast information history information and output power history information of the photovoltaic power station.
Comparative example two
The second difference from the embodiment is that S2: setting a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system, processing real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system, setting the photovoltaic power generation power prediction system, processing the real-time weather forecast information and the historical data of the prediction database system according to a prediction algorithm, and adopting an EMS energy management system, wherein the basic functions comprise: computer, operating system and EMS braced system, the application function includes: data acquisition and monitoring, automatic power generation control and planning and network application analysis 3, and a user in the system manages the prediction system in real time through an operation interface.
Comparative example three
The difference from the third embodiment is that S3: the active power output, reactive capacity and voltage regulation of the power supply are regulated according to the command of the power grid dispatching mechanism, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system which is connected with the power grid through the voltage class of 0.4kV has active power regulation capability, the active power output, reactive capacity and voltage regulation of the power supply are regulated according to the command of the power grid dispatching mechanism, the power grid voltage regulation capability is participated, and the regulation mode, the reference voltage and the voltage regulation difference rate parameters are given by the power grid dispatching mechanism.
Experimental example
The low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction methods of the first embodiment, the second embodiment, the third embodiment, the fourth embodiment and the fifth embodiment are tested, and the following results are obtained:
compared with the existing low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction methods, the low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction methods of the first embodiment, the second embodiment, the third embodiment, the fourth embodiment and the fifth embodiment are obviously reduced in input cost and obviously improved in data accuracy, and the first embodiment is the best embodiment.
Detection report
The invention aims at solving the problems that the stability of a power grid is poor, reference data is inaccurate, the generating efficiency is reduced by weak light, the input cost is high, the power prediction cannot be carried out, and the like, and provides a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention, and are not limiting; although the invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may be modified or some technical features may be replaced with others, which may not depart from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. The low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation output prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1: the distribution and scheme of the photovoltaic power generation equipment are that a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, and the photovoltaic array is regulated to carry out MPPT control;
s2: setting a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system, and processing real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system;
s3: according to the power grid dispatching mechanism instruction, the active power output, the reactive capacity and the voltage of the power supply are regulated;
s4: respectively adopting ultra-short-term prediction, short-term prediction and medium-long term prediction according to different periods;
s5: the 5G communication terminal, the longitudinal encryption, the remote machine and the AGC control are integrated, and the control and adjustment command sent by the dispatching master station to the substation are executed;
S6: and setting a background remote monitoring system by adopting AGC automatic power control.
2. The method for predicting the output of low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation according to claim 1, wherein in the step S1, photovoltaic power generation equipment distribution and scheme are designed, including access system scheme division principle, access voltage class, grid-connected point selection and typical scheme design, and secondary including line protection, bus protection, frequency voltage abnormality emergency control device and anti-islanding protection; scheduling management, a telemechanical system, a time setting mode, a communication protocol, information transmission, safety protection, power control and electric energy quality monitoring; metering device, gateway point setting, equipment interface, channel and protocol requirements; the communication includes channel requirements, communication mode, communication device power supply, and communication device arrangement.
3. The method for predicting the output of low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation according to claim 1, wherein in the step S1, a photovoltaic power generation system is arranged, after photovoltaic conversion is implemented by a photovoltaic module, direct current is distributed to a direct current load and a DC/AC inverter device through a controller, alternating current meeting the power quality requirement is output, the alternating current is boosted through a box transformer and then is connected to a power grid, then is subjected to voltage reduction through the box transformer and is supplied to an alternating current load, and finally, the alternating current is fed back to a photovoltaic array through DC/AC inverter control, so that MPPT control is carried out on the photovoltaic array; the numerical weather forecast system provides weather forecast information of the current day and several days in the future, and the weather forecast information of the place where the photovoltaic power station is located is transmitted to the forecast database system in real time and is processed; and the prediction database system is used for storing and managing weather forecast information history information and output power history information of the photovoltaic power station.
4. The method for predicting the output of low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation according to claim 1, wherein in the step S2, a photovoltaic power generation power prediction system is set, real-time weather forecast information and historical data of a prediction database system are processed according to a prediction algorithm, an appropriate power prediction mathematical model is selected, and a predicted current day output power prediction value and a predicted error are calculated; an EMS energy management system is adopted, and the EMS energy management system consists of two parts, namely a basic function and an application function, wherein the basic function comprises: computer, operating system and EMS braced system, the application function includes: data acquisition and monitoring, automatic power generation control and planning and network application analysis 3, and a user in the system manages the prediction system in real time through an operation interface.
5. The method for predicting the output of low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation according to claim 1, wherein in the step S3, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system connected by a voltage level of 0.4kV has active power adjustment capability, the active power output of a power supply is adjusted according to the instruction of a power grid dispatching mechanism, the reactive power capacity and the voltage adjustment, the power factor of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is continuously adjustable within the range of 0.95-0.95, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system has the capability of adjusting the reactive power output according to the voltage level of a grid connection point within the reactive power output range, and the adjustment mode, the reference voltage and the voltage adjustment difference ratio parameters are given by the power grid dispatching mechanism.
6. The method for predicting the output of low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation according to claim 1, wherein in the step S4, ultra-short-term prediction is adopted for less than 4 hours, a statistical and physical hybrid method is mainly adopted, cloud layer movement conditions are presumed according to satellite cloud images shot by geosynchronous satellites, irradiation intensity reaching the ground is predicted, and power is predicted through a solar irradiation intensity and power conversion efficiency model; short-term prediction is adopted for less than 24 hours, mainly weather forecast information data is used as a main material, and a predicted value of the output power of the photovoltaic power station is obtained by establishing a mapping relation between historical input data and historical output power and is used for power balance and economic dispatch of a power system, planning of a day-ahead power generation, electric power market trading and transient stability assessment.
7. The method for predicting the output of low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation according to claim 1, wherein in the step S4, the period is longer than a week, medium-long-term prediction is adopted, the method is mainly used for the maintenance arrangement of a system and the prediction of the power generation capacity, weather forecast information data are used as input, characteristics of photovoltaic power generation equipment are researched, a corresponding mathematical model of photovoltaic power generation power and the weather forecast information data is established, and the photovoltaic power generation power is further predicted; and (3) finding out the internal law of the historical data, eliminating the pathological data points, establishing a function mapping relation between the historical data and the output power, and further predicting the photovoltaic power generation power.
8. The method for predicting the output of the low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation according to claim 1, wherein in the step S5, a 5G communication terminal, a longitudinal encryption, a remote engine and an AGC control are integrated, the functions of enabling 10 kilovolts and more of distributed photovoltaic to be accessed into a dispatching master station in a direct acquisition mode and simultaneously performing automatic power control are met, a 5G communication module is arranged, an SA independent networking mode is arranged, a 5G power slice private network is connected through a SIM card, the dispatching master station safety access area is further connected, the dispatching master station private network communication is realized, the longitudinal encryption is performed, the 5G communication module is arranged, the SA independent networking mode is arranged, the 5G power slice private network is connected through the SIM card, the dispatching master station safety access area is further connected, the dispatching master station private network communication is realized, the analog quantity and the state quantity of the running state in a station are collected, the dispatching master station is monitored and uploaded to the dispatching master station, the control and regulation command sent to a substation is executed, and the remote signaling, the remote sensing, remote control and remote dispatching functions are finally realized.
9. The method for predicting the output of low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation according to claim 1, wherein in the step S6, AGC automatic power control is adopted to receive and automatically execute active and reactive power control signals remotely transmitted by a dispatching master station, the power output of the self-station is controlled according to an optimal strategy, the maximum active power value and the active power variation value of the self-station are ensured not to exceed given values of the dispatching master station, and meanwhile, system operation regulation state and parameter information are returned to the dispatching master station.
10. The method for predicting the output of the low-voltage distributed photovoltaic power generation according to claim 1, wherein in the step S6, a background remote monitoring system is arranged, the whole wireless networking scheme consists of a data center end, a network transmission end and field equipment, the field equipment is connected with a wireless router, the wireless router establishes a VPN encryption channel with a dispatching center service through a 5G cellular network, two-way communication between terminal equipment and a data center server is realized through establishing the VPN channel, and the data monitoring center performs data acquisition and control on the field equipment to realize remote monitoring.
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| CN117543823A (en) * | 2023-11-16 | 2024-02-09 | 创维互联（北京）新能源科技有限公司 | Photovoltaic group string loss electric quantity calculation method and system based on multiple models |
| CN117543823B (en) * | 2023-11-16 | 2024-06-18 | 创维互联（北京）新能源科技有限公司 | Photovoltaic group string loss electric quantity calculation method and system based on multiple models |
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