CN116430476A - Variable resolution grid setting method for tropical cyclone prediction - Google Patents
Variable resolution grid setting method for tropical cyclone prediction Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a variable resolution grid setting method for tropical cyclone forecast, which relates to the field of meteorological research, and comprises the following steps: s1, selecting or generating a variable resolution grid as an original grid according to forecast requirements and computing resources; s2, translating the original grid along the grid encryption center to generate a plurality of new grids, and marking the new grids as grids to be selected; s3, for a certain reporting time, acquiring the latest tropical cyclone subjective path forecast before the reporting time; s4, calculating the total number of forecasting moments of the tropical cyclone positions in the encryption area of the grids to be selected in the tropical cyclone subjective path forecasting for each grid to be selected; s5, determining a variable resolution grid which is finally used for mode forecasting at a certain forecasting time. The method provides a convenient and efficient grid setting method for the tropical cyclone forecast of the variable-resolution global mode, and can effectively improve the forecast effect of the tropical cyclone.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of meteorological research, in particular to a variable resolution grid setting method for tropical cyclone forecast.
Background
Tropical cyclones are low pressure vortices that occur on tropical or subtropical ocean surfaces, and are one of the most damaging natural disasters in the world. To achieve better tropical cyclone predictions, a high resolution numerical mode is required. The global high-resolution numerical mode requires excessive computing resources, and the boundary condition problem of the regional high-resolution mode affects the quality of medium-term forecasting, and in recent years, the global mode with variable resolution is used for tropical cyclone forecasting, and the mode uses unstructured grids, the horizontal resolution of the grids is gradually changed from thicker to thinner so as to realize local refinement of key regions, the regional high-resolution simulation can be provided without using boundary conditions, and the consumed computing resources are relatively small.
There are still problems in the actual implementation of the variable resolution global model for tropical cyclone predictions. The range of tropical cyclone distribution is wide, taking North Pacific ocean as an example, tropical cyclone can appear in a wide sea area of 100 DEG E-180 DEG E and 5 DEG N-45 DEG N, and extremely large computational resources are needed if high resolution forecasting is adopted for all such large areas. The most ideal way is to generate a new variable resolution grid in real time according to each tropical cyclone position at each forecasting time, so that the tropical cyclone path is high in resolution in a certain range, but due to the complexity of the unstructured grid, the generation of the new grid takes a long time, and the method cannot be applied to actual service forecasting. In view of the above, it is necessary to develop a new variable resolution grid setting method for tropical cyclone prediction.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims at: the invention provides a variable-resolution grid setting method for tropical cyclone prediction, which can effectively solve the problems of low generation speed of a variable-resolution global mode unstructured grid, excessive consumption of computing resources in an encryption area and the like, can provide a convenient and efficient grid setting method for tropical cyclone simulation in a variable-resolution global mode, and can effectively improve the prediction effect of tropical cyclone.
The technical content is as follows: a variable resolution grid setting method for tropical cyclone forecast, comprising the steps of:
s1, selecting or generating a variable resolution grid as an original grid according to forecast requirements and computing resources, and setting a grid encryption center of the original grid; the encryption area of the original grid is required to be larger than the average advancing range of the historical tropical cyclone in the target forecasting area in the required forecasting duration;
s2, translating the original grid along the grid encryption center to generate a plurality of new grids, and marking the new grids as grids to be selected;
s3, for a certain reporting time, acquiring the latest tropical cyclone subjective path forecast before the reporting time, and if the tropical cyclone subjective path forecast does not exist, acquiring the latest tropical cyclone satellite positioning position before the reporting time;
s4, calculating the total number of forecasting moments of the tropical cyclone positions in the encryption area of the grids to be selected in the tropical cyclone subjective path forecasting for each grid to be selected; if the tropical cyclone subjective path forecast does not exist, calculating the distance between the tropical cyclone satellite positioning position and the grid encryption center to be selected;
s5, selecting the grid to be selected with the largest total number of forecasting moments in the encryption area of the tropical cyclone position in the tropical cyclone subjective path forecasting from all grids to be selected as a variable resolution grid for mode forecasting at the forecasting moment; if the tropical cyclone subjective path forecast does not exist, selecting a grid to be selected with the minimum distance between the tropical cyclone satellite positioning position and the encryption center as a variable resolution grid for mode forecast at the forecast moment.
Further, in the first step, the obtaining manner of the original grid includes:
1) Selecting a variable resolution grid from an MPAS-Atmosphere Meshes website as an original grid, wherein the grid encryption centers of the original grid are positioned at 0 degree longitude and 0 degree latitude;
2) The original grid is generated by using software to imitate the variable resolution grid in the MPAS-Atmosphere Meshes website, and the grid encryption center of the original grid can be set arbitrarily.
Furthermore, in the second step, the arrangement mode of the grids to be selected can be determined by itself, but it should be ensured that the union region of the encryption regions of all the grids to be selected can basically cover the target prediction region.
Further, in the third step, the latest tropical cyclone subjective path forecast and the tropical cyclone satellite positioning position may be obtained from the central gateway or from another tropical cyclone forecast center.
Further, in the step S4, the calculation method for the total number of forecasting moments when the tropical cyclone position is located in the encryption area in the tropical cyclone subjective path forecast includes:
and for each grid to be selected, judging whether the tropical cyclone positions of all the forecasting moments in the tropical cyclone subjective path forecasting are positioned in the encryption area of the grid to be selected in sequence, and further obtaining the total number of the forecasting moments of the tropical cyclone positions positioned in the encryption area of the grid to be selected.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the method and the device generate a plurality of to-be-selected variable resolution grids which can basically cover the target forecasting area, and select proper to-be-selected grids according to the tropical cyclone position in forecasting, so that the problems that the time for generating the variable resolution grids in real time is too long, the whole target forecasting area is set as an encryption area, excessive computing resources are consumed and the like are solved, and meanwhile, the tropical cyclone can be basically guaranteed to be forecasted in the high-resolution area. The method provides a convenient and efficient grid setting method for the tropical cyclone forecast of the variable-resolution global mode, and can effectively improve the forecast effect of the tropical cyclone.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a variable resolution grid setup method for tropical cyclone forecast of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a variable resolution grid;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a target prediction area alternative resolution grid arrangement.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of the technical solution of the present invention will be given with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
The invention provides a variable resolution grid setting method for tropical cyclone prediction, in particular to a variable resolution grid setting method for predicting tropical cyclone by using a variable resolution global mode, wherein a flow chart is shown in fig. 1, and the method comprises the following steps:
s1, selecting or generating a variable resolution grid as an original grid according to forecast requirements and computing resources, and setting a grid encryption center of the original grid; the encryption area of the original grid is required to be larger than the average advancing range of the historical tropical cyclone in the target forecasting area in the required forecasting duration;
preferably, a variable resolution grid may be selected as the original grid in the MPAS-Atmosphere Meshes website (https:// MPAS-dev. Github. Io/atm sphere/atm sphere_measures. Html), or Spherical Centroidal Voronoi Tessellations (SCVT) software may be used to simulate the variable resolution grid in the MPAS-Atmosphere Meshes website to automatically generate the original grid.
The encryption area of the selected or generated original grid should not be too small and should be greater than the average travel range of the historical tropical cyclone in the target forecast area over the desired forecast duration. The variable-resolution grid encryption centers in the MPAS-Atmosphere Meshes website are located at 0 degree longitude and 0 degree latitude, and the self-generated variable-resolution grid encryption centers can be set arbitrarily.
Fig. 2 shows a schematic diagram of a variable resolution grid with a resolution of 60km-3km, wherein the shaded area is the encryption area and the star is located at the encryption center 120E 22N of the grid.
S2, translating the original grid along the grid encryption center to generate a plurality of new grids, wherein the moved new grids are called to-be-selected grids; the arrangement mode of the grids to be selected can be determined by self, but the union region of all the encryption regions of the grids to be selected can be ensured to basically cover the target forecast region;
fig. 3 shows a schematic diagram of an arrangement of candidate grids in a target prediction area, where the target prediction area is pacific northwest, and a circle in the diagram represents an encryption area of a candidate resolution grid, and there are 18 candidate grids in the diagram, and a union area of the encryption areas can substantially cover a tropical cyclone in pacific northwest.
S3, for a certain reporting time, acquiring the latest tropical cyclone subjective path forecast before the reporting time, and if the tropical cyclone subjective path forecast does not exist, acquiring the latest tropical cyclone satellite positioning position before the reporting time;
preferably, the latest tropical cyclone subjective path forecast and tropical cyclone satellite positioning position can be obtained from a central gas platform or from other tropical cyclone forecast centers.
S4, for the grids to be selected, judging whether the tropical cyclone positions of all the forecasting moments in the tropical cyclone subjective path forecasting are located in the encryption area of the grids to be selected in sequence, and obtaining the total number of the forecasting moments that the tropical cyclone positions are located in the encryption area of the grids to be selected; if the tropical cyclone subjective path forecast does not exist, calculating the distance between the tropical cyclone satellite positioning position and the encryption center of the grid to be selected. And carrying out the operation on all the grids to be selected.
S5, selecting the grid to be selected with the largest total number of forecasting moments in the encryption area of the tropical cyclone position in the tropical cyclone subjective path forecasting from all grids to be selected as a variable resolution grid for mode forecasting at the forecasting moment; if the tropical cyclone subjective path forecast does not exist, selecting a grid to be selected with the minimum distance between the tropical cyclone satellite positioning position and the encryption center as a variable resolution grid for mode forecast at the forecast moment.
The method and the device generate a plurality of to-be-selected variable resolution grids which can basically cover the target forecasting area, and select proper to-be-selected grids according to the tropical cyclone position in forecasting, so that the problems that the time for generating the variable resolution grids in real time is too long, the whole target forecasting area is set as an encryption area, excessive computing resources are consumed and the like are solved, and meanwhile, the tropical cyclone can be basically guaranteed to be forecasted in the high-resolution area. The method provides a convenient and efficient grid setting method for the tropical cyclone forecast of the variable-resolution global mode, and can effectively improve the forecast effect of the tropical cyclone.
Claims (5)
1. A method for setting a variable resolution grid for tropical cyclone forecast, comprising the steps of:
s1, selecting or generating a variable resolution grid as an original grid according to forecast requirements and computing resources, and setting a grid encryption center of the original grid; the encryption area of the original grid is required to be larger than the average advancing range of the historical tropical cyclone in the target forecasting area in the required forecasting duration;
s2, translating the original grid along the grid encryption center to generate a plurality of new grids, and marking the new grids as grids to be selected;
s3, for a certain reporting time, acquiring the latest tropical cyclone subjective path forecast before the reporting time, and if the tropical cyclone subjective path forecast does not exist, acquiring the latest tropical cyclone satellite positioning position before the reporting time;
s4, calculating the total number of forecasting moments of the tropical cyclone positions in the encryption area of the grids to be selected in the tropical cyclone subjective path forecasting for each grid to be selected; if the tropical cyclone subjective path forecast does not exist, calculating the distance between the tropical cyclone satellite positioning position and the grid encryption center to be selected;
s5, selecting the grid to be selected with the largest total number of forecasting moments in the encryption area of the tropical cyclone position in the tropical cyclone subjective path forecasting from all grids to be selected as a variable resolution grid for mode forecasting at the forecasting moment; if the tropical cyclone subjective path forecast does not exist, selecting a grid to be selected with the minimum distance between the tropical cyclone satellite positioning position and the encryption center as a variable resolution grid for mode forecast at the forecast moment.
2. The method for setting a variable resolution grid for tropical cyclone forecast according to claim 1, wherein in the first step, the original grid is obtained by:
1) Selecting a variable resolution grid from an MPAS-Atmosphere Meshes website as an original grid, wherein the grid encryption centers of the original grid are positioned at 0 degree longitude and 0 degree latitude;
2) The original grid is generated by using software to imitate the variable resolution grid in the MPAS-Atmosphere Meshes website, and the grid encryption center of the original grid can be set arbitrarily.
3. The method for setting a variable resolution grid for tropical cyclone prediction according to claim 1, wherein in the second step, the arrangement mode of the grids to be selected can be determined by itself, but it should be ensured that the union area of the encryption areas of all the grids to be selected can substantially cover the target prediction area.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein in the third step, the latest tropical cyclone subjective path forecast and tropical cyclone satellite positioning position can be obtained from a central gateway or from other tropical cyclone forecast centers.
5. The method for setting a variable resolution grid for tropical cyclone forecast according to claim 1, wherein in S4, the calculation method for the total number of forecast moments of tropical cyclone positions in an encryption area in the tropical cyclone subjective path forecast is as follows:
and for each grid to be selected, judging whether the tropical cyclone positions of all the forecasting moments in the tropical cyclone subjective path forecasting are positioned in the encryption area of the grid to be selected in sequence, and further obtaining the total number of the forecasting moments of the tropical cyclone positions positioned in the encryption area of the grid to be selected.
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| CN117576339A (en) * | 2023-09-20 | 2024-02-20 | 中国气象局上海台风研究所(上海市气象科学研究所) | Unstructured grid generation method with highest resolution of 1km |
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| CN117576339A (en) * | 2023-09-20 | 2024-02-20 | 中国气象局上海台风研究所(上海市气象科学研究所) | Unstructured grid generation method with highest resolution of 1km |
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