CN116362410A - MES-based production time prediction method, system and storage medium - Google Patents

MES-based production time prediction method, system and storage medium Download PDF

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CN116362410A
CN116362410A CN202310399816.5A CN202310399816A CN116362410A CN 116362410 A CN116362410 A CN 116362410A CN 202310399816 A CN202310399816 A CN 202310399816A CN 116362410 A CN116362410 A CN 116362410A
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production
time
information
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actual
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CN116362410B (en
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蔡子祥
吴娓娓
张军
周广鑫
薛凌康
褚美佳
李海龙
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Wuxi Xingzhi Digital Service Technology Co ltd
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Wuxi Xingzhi Digital Service Technology Co ltd
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/20—Administration of product repair or maintenance
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/04—Manufacturing
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
    • Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
    • Y02P90/30—Computing systems specially adapted for manufacturing

Abstract

The application relates to a production time prediction method, a production time prediction system and a storage medium based on MES, which relate to the technical field of production time prediction and comprise the following steps: acquiring planned production information and actual production information; calculating the estimated completion time corresponding to each production link; acquiring a production main body of each production link, acquiring historical fault information if the production main body is production equipment, and determining predicted completion time according to the historical fault information and estimated completion time; otherwise, determining the predicted completion time corresponding to each production link according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual production quantity and the production time; and determining the comprehensive production time according to the predicted completion time corresponding to all the production links. The estimated completion time of each production link is estimated preliminarily, and the estimated completion time is adjusted according to the production main body corresponding to each production link to obtain more accurate predicted completion time, so that the predicted comprehensive production time is more accurate.

Description

MES-based production time prediction method, system and storage medium
Technical Field
The present disclosure relates to the field of production data prediction, and in particular, to a method, a system, and a storage medium for predicting production time based on MES.
Background
The MES system is a production process management system and dynamically tracks the whole process from the beginning of processing to the completion of warehousing and then to delivery. And the MES system records information such as personnel, equipment, materials, product quality and the like in the production process in real time.
The personnel can know various data related to production, such as process routes, scheduling information, personnel management, material taking conditions, work order information and the like through the MES system. However, the display of the information only depends on the function of recording the information in the MES system, and the MES system does not have the capability of predicting the subsequent production based on the existing data, the work of the aspect depends on the prediction of the staff, and the prediction needs to relate to the data related to the whole production line, which can definitely aggravate the workload of the staff and easily delay the timeliness of the prediction.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to predict production time according to existing data, the application provides a MES-based production time prediction method, a MES-based production time prediction system and a storage medium.
In a first aspect, the present application provides a method for predicting production time based on MES, which adopts the following technical scheme:
a production time prediction method based on MES comprises the following steps:
acquiring planned production information and actual production information, wherein the actual production information comprises a plurality of production links, and actual production quantity and processing time which are in one-to-one correspondence with the production links;
calculating the first production efficiency of each production link according to the corresponding actual production quantity and processing time;
calculating the estimated completion time corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information, the actual production quantity and the first production efficiency;
obtaining a production main body corresponding to each production link, judging whether the production main body is production equipment,
if the production main body is production equipment, acquiring historical fault information of the production equipment, and determining predicted completion time according to the historical fault information and the estimated completion time;
if the production main body does not produce production equipment, calculating second production efficiency according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual production capacity and the processing time;
determining the predicted completion time corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information, the actual production quantity and the second production efficiency;
and determining the comprehensive production time according to the predicted completion time corresponding to all the production links.
According to the technical scheme, the planned production information and the actual production information are acquired from the MES system to preliminarily estimate the estimated completion time of each production link, the estimated completion time is adjusted according to the production main body corresponding to each production link to obtain more accurate predicted completion time, and finally the predicted completion time of all production links is synthesized to obtain the comprehensive production time of the whole production line, so that the predicted production time is more accurate, and the workload of staff is reduced.
Optionally, the historical fault information includes a historical fault frequency and a historical maintenance time;
the method for determining the predicted completion time according to the historical fault information and the estimated completion time comprises the following steps:
the number of faults is determined based on the historical fault frequency and the estimated completion time,
and determining estimated miswork time according to the fault times and the historical maintenance time, and obtaining predicted completion time according to the estimated miswork time and the estimated completion time.
Optionally, the calculating the second production efficiency according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual production amount and the processing time includes the following steps:
judging whether the processing time exceeds the preset adaptation time,
if the processing time exceeds the preset adaptation time, calculating a time difference value according to the processing time and the adaptation time, and calculating second production efficiency according to the time difference value, the adaptation time and the actual production;
if the processing time is lower than or equal to the preset adaptation time, determining a time ratio according to the processing time and the adaptation time, and calculating the second production efficiency according to the time ratio and the actual production.
Optionally, before determining whether the processing time exceeds the preset adaptation time, the method includes the following steps:
acquiring the information of the production personnel corresponding to the current production link,
judging whether a preset database has historical time corresponding to current producer information or not, wherein the preset database stores a plurality of producer information and historical time corresponding to the producer information one by one;
if the historical time corresponding to the current producer information exists in the preset database, matching the historical time corresponding to the producer information, and taking the historical time as the preset adaptation time;
and if the history time corresponding to the current producer information does not exist in the preset database, taking the preset general time as the preset adaptation time.
Optionally, before calculating the second production efficiency according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual throughput and the processing time, the method includes the following steps:
obtaining a product type corresponding to a current production link, and determining a historical production date according to the product type;
determining a time interval according to the historical production date and processing time;
it is determined whether the time interval exceeds a preset threshold,
if yes, calculating second production efficiency according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual production capacity and the processing time;
if not, the completion time is directly estimated as the predicted completion time.
Optionally, the determining the predicted time according to the predicted completion time corresponding to all production links includes the following steps:
taking the predicted completion time corresponding to the lowest second production efficiency as main time;
determining the number of remaining production lots according to the planned production information and the actual production quantity;
calculating secondary time according to the number of the remaining production batches and the predicted completion time corresponding to the remaining production links;
the primary time and all secondary times are added to get the predicted time.
In a second aspect, the present application provides a production time prediction system based on MES, which adopts the following technical scheme:
a MES-based production time prediction system, comprising the steps of:
the information acquisition module is used for acquiring planned production information and actual production information;
the efficiency estimation module is used for calculating the first production efficiency of each production link according to the corresponding actual production quantity and processing time;
the time estimation module is used for calculating the estimated completion time corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information, the actual production quantity and the first production efficiency;
the processing module is used for acquiring a production main body corresponding to each production link, judging whether the production main body is production equipment, acquiring historical fault information of the production equipment if the production main body is the production equipment, and determining predicted completion time according to the historical fault information and estimated completion time; if the production main body does not produce production equipment, acquiring preset adaptation time, and calculating second production efficiency according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual production quantity and the processing time; determining the predicted completion time corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information, the actual production quantity and the second production efficiency;
and the statistics module is used for determining the comprehensive production time according to the predicted completion time corresponding to all the production links.
In a third aspect, the present application provides a readable storage medium storing a computer program capable of being loaded by a processor and performing a MES-based production time prediction method as described above.
In summary, the present application includes at least one of the following beneficial technical effects: the method comprises the steps of obtaining planned production information and actual production information from an MES system to preliminarily estimate the estimated completion time of each production link, adjusting the estimated completion time according to production subjects corresponding to each production link to obtain more accurate predicted completion time, and finally synthesizing the predicted completion time of all production links to obtain the comprehensive production time of the whole production line, wherein the predicted production time is more accurate, and the workload of staff is reduced.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a block diagram of the overall steps of an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 2 is a block diagram of the specific steps of step S500 in one embodiment.
FIG. 3 is a block diagram of steps for calculating a second production efficiency in one embodiment.
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram showing the production efficiency with time when t2 is greater than t1 in one embodiment.
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram showing the production efficiency with time when t1 is greater than t2 in one embodiment.
FIG. 6 is a block diagram of the specific steps for acquiring adaptation time in one embodiment.
FIG. 7 is a block diagram of the specific steps prior to calculating the second production efficiency, in one embodiment.
Detailed Description
The present application is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Referring to FIG. 1, the MES-based production time prediction method comprises the following steps:
s100, acquiring planned production information and actual production information.
The planned production information is information about a product to be produced, which is generated in advance according to a product order.
The actual production information is related information that the product has been actually completed by the current time.
Because the product is often processed step by step in the production process by a plurality of production links, and each production link has a certain rejection rate. Therefore, the planned production information includes a plurality of planned production amounts corresponding to the production links one by one, and the planned production amounts corresponding to the different production links are often different.
In addition, when the completion amount of each production link is counted, the completion amount of each production link is counted and reported in batches by a responsible person of each production link, namely, the data is reported firstly after the parts or products of the previous batch are completed, and all the parts or products of the current batch are reported together, so that the time is also critical data for actual production. The actual production information comprises a plurality of production links and actual production quantity corresponding to the production links one by one, and also comprises processing time corresponding to the production links one by one. Wherein the processing time includes a production start time and a production end time.
S200, calculating the first production efficiency of each production link according to the corresponding actual production quantity and processing time.
The calculation adopts a formula of Q1=S1/T1, wherein Q1 is the first production efficiency, S1 is the actual production quantity corresponding to each production link, and T1 is the actual production time corresponding to each production link.
T1 is determined by the processing time, specifically by subtracting the production start time from the production end time. If the actual throughput is for a lot of product, then the calculated T1 is relatively accurate; however, if the actual throughput corresponds to a plurality of batches of products, since there may be a rest time between each batch, the calculated T1 will be slightly longer than the actual processing time, which will slightly affect the accuracy of the first production efficiency generated, but the time line will be correspondingly lengthened with the increase of the number of product batches corresponding to the actual throughput, and the influence of the rest time on the accuracy will be reduced.
S300, calculating the estimated completion time corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information, the actual production quantity and the first production efficiency.
The estimated completion time is a completion time estimated relatively coarsely for the planned production information.
And calculating the residual production capacity corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information and the actual production, and calculating the estimated completion time according to the residual production capacity and the first production efficiency of the same production link.
Specifically, the remaining throughput is obtained by subtracting the actual throughput from the planned throughput corresponding to the same production cycle; the estimated completion time is obtained by dividing the remaining throughput corresponding to the same production run by the first production efficiency.
S400, obtaining a production main body corresponding to each production link, and judging whether the production main body is production equipment.
The production main body comprises production equipment and production personnel, and corresponds to automatic production and manual production of the machine respectively. The manual production mentioned here can of course be carried out by means of a device, but the processing time is largely dependent on the operation of the producer, which can be correspondingly shortened if the producer is skilled.
The production main body of each production link is either production equipment or production personnel, and both cannot be simultaneously present in the same production link.
S500, if the production main body is production equipment, historical fault information of the production equipment is obtained, and the predicted completion time is determined according to the historical fault information and the estimated completion time.
The predicted completion time is a completion time that is relatively accurately predicted for the planned production information.
When the production main body is production equipment, factors that easily affect the production efficiency of the production equipment are equipment fault repair, regular maintenance, and the like, and these factors are collectively defined as fault information in the present embodiment. By recording the fault information of the production equipment in the past into a database to form historical fault information, the predicted completion time can be obtained more accurately by removing the influence of the historical fault information by retrieving the historical fault information.
Specifically, the historical fault information includes a historical fault frequency and a historical repair time.
Determining a predicted completion time based on the historical fault information and the estimated completion time, see FIG. 2, comprising the steps of:
s510, determining the number of faults according to the historical fault frequency and the estimated completion time.
The number of faults is a value obtained by multiplying the estimated completion time by the historical fault frequency and then rounding down.
S520, determining estimated time of error work according to the times of faults and the historical maintenance time, and obtaining predicted completion time according to the estimated time of error work and the estimated completion time.
The historical maintenance time is the time required for single maintenance or repair, and can be obtained by averaging the time used for the past maintenance.
The estimated time to failure is the number of failures times the historical repair time.
The predicted completion time is obtained by adding the estimated completion time to the estimated miswork time.
If the interval between two faults or maintenance exceeds the estimated completion time and the number of faults is zero, the production delay of production equipment due to faults or maintenance does not exist, and the predicted completion time and the estimated completion time of the current production link are consistent.
And S600, if the production main body does not produce production equipment, acquiring preset adaptation time, and calculating second production efficiency according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual production quantity and the processing time.
The adaptation time refers to the time required for the production personnel to go from unskilled production to skilled production just beginning in the current production link.
When the production staff is unskilled for production, the production efficiency is lower, and as the production staff gradually adapt and become familiar, the production efficiency is gradually improved until reaching a relatively stable value, and the stable production efficiency is the second production efficiency. The first production efficiency is the production efficiency obtained without considering the adaptation of the production personnel to the production process.
In one embodiment, the second production efficiency is calculated from the corresponding actual throughput and processing time, see fig. 3, comprising the steps of:
and A610, judging whether the processing time exceeds the preset adaptation time.
And judging whether the processing time exceeds the preset adaptation time, wherein the processing time is used for determining the actual production time, and then judging whether the actual production time exceeds the preset adaptation time.
And A620, if the processing time exceeds the preset adaptation time, calculating a time difference value according to the processing time and the adaptation time, and calculating the second production efficiency according to the time difference value, the adaptation time and the actual production.
When the time taken for actual production exceeds the fit-in time, it is indicated that the producer has produced the product for a period of time with normal efficiency. The time difference is the time that the producer spends producing at normal efficiency.
The time difference is obtained by subtracting the adaptation time from the time taken for actual production.
Quantifying the production efficiency of the production personnel in the adaptation time to be in direct proportion to the time, and drawing a two-dimensional coordinate as shown in fig. 4, wherein the X axis is time T, the Y axis is production efficiency Y, T1 is adaptation time, T2 is time used for actual production, and Y 0 Representing a second production efficiency.
As can be seen from fig. 4, the amount of product produced in the preset time corresponds to half the yield produced at the same time spent on normal production efficiency. The following equation is obtained, the actual throughput S=1/2×t1×Y 0 ＋（t2-t1）×Y 0 Further calculate Y 0 。
And A630, if the processing time is lower than or equal to the preset adaptation time, determining a time ratio according to the processing time and the adaptation time, and calculating the second production efficiency according to the time ratio and the actual production.
When the time for actual production has not exceeded the adaptation time, the producer has not stabilizedEfficiency in producing the product, the production efficiency of production personnel in the adaptation time is quantized to be in direct proportion to time, and is plotted into a two-dimensional coordinate as shown in fig. 5, wherein the X axis is time T, the Y axis is production efficiency Y, T1 is adaptation time, T2 is time used for actual production, and Y is 0 Representing a second production efficiency.
The production efficiency at time t1 is proportional to the production efficiency at time t2, and the ratio of the production efficiencies is the same as the ratio of t1 to t 2. Therefore, the production efficiency at the time t1 can be obtained by calculating the production efficiency at the time t 2. Y is Y 1 =2S/t2，Y 0 =Y 1 ×t1/t2。
In one embodiment, the preset adaptation time is obtained, see fig. 6, comprising the steps of:
and B610, acquiring the information of the production personnel corresponding to the current production link.
Different producers often have different adaptation times, for example, the producers with strong receiving capacity and strong operating capacity generally only need shorter adaptation time to stabilize the production efficiency.
Therefore, to determine the adaptation time, the information of the producer corresponding to the current production link needs to be determined first.
And B620, judging whether the preset database has the historical time corresponding to the current producer information.
The preset database stores a plurality of production personnel information and historical time corresponding to the production personnel information one by one.
The historical time is the adaptation time spent by the corresponding manufacturer in the past producing the corresponding product.
However, not all the corresponding information of the producer is stored in the database, for example, the current producer is a new one, and then neither the historical time nor the producer information is recorded in the database; for example, when the current producer just changes from another post, the producer information exists in the database, but the record of the history time corresponding to the current link is lacking.
Therefore, the historical time corresponding to the current producer information cannot be directly matched from the database, but it is first determined whether the historical time corresponding to the current producer information exists.
And B630, if the historical time corresponding to the current producer information exists in the preset database, matching the historical time corresponding to the producer information, and taking the historical time as the preset adaptation time.
When the historical time corresponding to the production personnel information can be successfully matched, the historical time is directly referred to, and the historical time is taken as the current adaptation time.
And B640, if the history time corresponding to the current producer information does not exist in the preset database, taking the preset general time as the preset adaptation time.
The universal time is the historical time of people in the current production link.
When the corresponding historical time cannot be matched, the universal time is taken as the adaptation time so that the following step A610 can be successfully executed.
In addition, if the production personnel have produced similar products in the same production link in a short time, the production personnel have accumulated a certain experience for the production of the type of products and are not easy to forget in a short time, and in this case, the production personnel are arranged again to produce the current products, and no readaptation should occur.
In one embodiment, before calculating the second production efficiency from the corresponding actual throughput and processing time, see fig. 7, the steps include:
and C610, acquiring a product type corresponding to the current production link, and determining a historical production date according to the product type.
The historical production date is the end of production time of the last product produced for the corresponding product type. If the historical production date cannot be determined, and the corresponding production personnel cannot produce the same type of product, the historical production date can be a default date, and the default date can be set to be a particularly early date so as to ensure that the time interval calculated later must exceed a preset threshold value.
And C620, determining the time interval according to the historical production date and the processing time.
The time interval is obtained by subtracting the historical production date from the production start time in the processing time.
And C630, judging whether the time interval exceeds a preset threshold value.
The preset threshold is a manually set time interval, and is a critical point in the time domain from skilled to unskilled production of a certain type of product by a producer in theory.
And C640, if so, calculating the second production efficiency according to the corresponding actual production amount and processing time.
When the time interval exceeds the preset threshold, it is indicated that the current production is requiring readaptation by production personnel, and therefore the first production efficiency is inaccurate and a more accurate second production efficiency needs to be recalculated.
And C650, if not, directly estimating the completion time as the predicted completion time.
When the time interval is equal to or lower than the preset threshold, the production personnel do not need to adapt to the current production again, so that no adaptation time exists, the first production efficiency is the second production efficiency, and therefore the estimated completion time is the predicted completion time.
S700, determining the predicted completion time corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information, the actual production quantity and the second production efficiency.
The remaining production amount is determined according to the planned production information and the actual production amount, and the calculation result of step S300 may be directly called.
The second production efficiency is then divided by the remaining throughput to yield a predicted completion time.
S800, determining the comprehensive production time according to the predicted completion time corresponding to all the production links.
The predicted completion time is the time required for a single production link to complete the corresponding residual production, and the actual production time is necessarily longer than the predicted completion time of the single production link because the production links cannot all synchronously start production, but is related to the predicted completion time of each production link, so that the comprehensive production time needs to be determined by means of all the predicted completion times.
In one embodiment, determining the predicted time according to the predicted completion time corresponding to all production links includes the steps of:
s810, taking the predicted completion time corresponding to the lowest second production efficiency as main time.
S820, determining the number of the residual production batches according to the planned production information and the actual production quantity.
The residual production quantity is determined according to the planned production information and the actual production quantity, the quantity of the products to be finished in each batch in different production links is fixed and is already set, so that the number of the residual production batches can be determined according to the residual production quantity and the production quantity of single batches.
The overall production lot number of all production links is the same, but the current remaining production lot number may also be different due to different production orders. It is therefore necessary to calculate the corresponding number of remaining production batches for each of all production links.
Of course, some databases store the number of production lots remaining, and then the number of production lots remaining may be directly called without further calculation.
S830, calculating secondary time according to the number of the remaining production batches and the predicted completion time corresponding to the remaining production links.
The secondary time is the time required for the corresponding production link to complete a single batch of product.
The secondary time is obtained by dividing the corresponding predicted completion time by the number of production lots remaining.
S840, the primary time and all secondary times are added to get the predicted time.
The current calculation mode arranges production according to the production links in a pipeline mode, if parallel production links exist, the whole processing time of branches where two parallel production links exist needs to be compared, branches with short processing time are deleted, and then the prediction time is obtained according to the processing time corresponding to the rest production links.
The embodiment of the application also discloses a production time prediction system based on MES, which comprises the following steps:
and the information acquisition module is used for acquiring the planned production information and the actual production information.
And the efficiency estimation module is used for calculating the first production efficiency of each production link according to the corresponding actual production quantity and processing time.
And the time estimation module is used for calculating the estimated completion time corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information, the actual production quantity and the first production efficiency.
The processing module is used for acquiring a production main body corresponding to each production link, judging whether the production main body is production equipment, acquiring historical fault information of the production equipment if the production main body is the production equipment, and determining predicted completion time according to the historical fault information and estimated completion time; if the production main body does not produce production equipment, acquiring preset adaptation time, and calculating second production efficiency according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual production quantity and the processing time; and determining the predicted completion time corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information, the actual production quantity and the second production efficiency.
And the statistics module is used for determining the comprehensive production time according to the predicted completion time corresponding to all the production links.
The embodiment of the application also discloses a readable storage medium storing a computer program capable of being loaded by a processor and executing the MES-based production time prediction method.
The foregoing are all preferred embodiments of the present application, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present application in any way, therefore: all equivalent changes in structure, shape and principle of this application should be covered in the protection scope of this application.

Claims (8)

1. The MES-based production time prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring planned production information and actual production information, wherein the actual production information comprises a plurality of production links, and actual production quantity and processing time which are in one-to-one correspondence with the production links;
calculating the first production efficiency of each production link according to the corresponding actual production quantity and processing time;
calculating the estimated completion time corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information, the actual production quantity and the first production efficiency;
obtaining a production main body corresponding to each production link, judging whether the production main body is production equipment,
if the production main body is production equipment, acquiring historical fault information of the production equipment, and determining predicted completion time according to the historical fault information and the estimated completion time;
if the production main body does not produce production equipment, acquiring preset adaptation time, and calculating second production efficiency according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual production quantity and the processing time;
determining the predicted completion time corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information, the actual production quantity and the second production efficiency;
and determining the comprehensive production time according to the predicted completion time corresponding to all the production links.
2. The MES-based production time prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the historical fault information includes a historical fault frequency and a historical repair time;
the method for determining the predicted completion time according to the historical fault information and the estimated completion time comprises the following steps:
the number of faults is determined based on the historical fault frequency and the estimated completion time,
and determining estimated miswork time according to the fault times and the historical maintenance time, and obtaining predicted completion time according to the estimated miswork time and the estimated completion time.
3. The MES-based production time prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the calculating of the second production efficiency according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual throughput and the processing time includes the steps of:
judging whether the processing time exceeds the preset adaptation time,
if the processing time exceeds the preset adaptation time, calculating a time difference value according to the processing time and the adaptation time, and calculating second production efficiency according to the time difference value, the adaptation time and the actual production;
if the processing time is lower than or equal to the preset adaptation time, determining a time ratio according to the processing time and the adaptation time, and calculating the second production efficiency according to the time ratio and the actual production.
4. A MES-based production time prediction method according to claim 3, wherein the step of judging whether the machining time exceeds a preset adaptation time is preceded by the steps of:
acquiring the information of the production personnel corresponding to the current production link,
judging whether a preset database has historical time corresponding to current producer information or not, wherein the preset database stores a plurality of producer information and historical time corresponding to the producer information one by one;
if the historical time corresponding to the current producer information exists in the preset database, matching the historical time corresponding to the producer information, and taking the historical time as the preset adaptation time;
and if the history time corresponding to the current producer information does not exist in the preset database, taking the preset general time as the preset adaptation time.
5. The MES-based production time prediction method according to claim 1, wherein before calculating the second production efficiency according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual throughput and the processing time, the method comprises the steps of:
obtaining a product type corresponding to a current production link, and determining a historical production date according to the product type;
determining a time interval according to the historical production date and processing time;
it is determined whether the time interval exceeds a preset threshold,
if yes, calculating second production efficiency according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual production capacity and the processing time;
if not, the completion time is directly estimated as the predicted completion time.
6. The MES-based production time prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the determining the predicted time according to the predicted completion time corresponding to all production links includes the steps of:
taking the predicted completion time corresponding to the lowest second production efficiency as main time;
determining the number of remaining production lots according to the planned production information and the actual production quantity;
calculating secondary time according to the number of the remaining production batches and the predicted completion time corresponding to the remaining production links;
the primary time and all secondary times are added to get the predicted time.
7. A MES-based production time prediction system, comprising the steps of:
the information acquisition module is used for acquiring planned production information and actual production information;
the efficiency estimation module is used for calculating the first production efficiency of each production link according to the corresponding actual production quantity and processing time;
the time estimation module is used for calculating the estimated completion time corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information, the actual production quantity and the first production efficiency;
the processing module is used for acquiring a production main body corresponding to each production link, judging whether the production main body is production equipment, acquiring historical fault information of the production equipment if the production main body is the production equipment, and determining predicted completion time according to the historical fault information and estimated completion time; if the production main body does not produce production equipment, acquiring preset adaptation time, and calculating second production efficiency according to the adaptation time, the corresponding actual production quantity and the processing time; determining the predicted completion time corresponding to each production link according to the planned production information, the actual production quantity and the second production efficiency;
and the statistics module is used for determining the comprehensive production time according to the predicted completion time corresponding to all the production links.
8. A readable storage medium storing a computer program loadable by a processor and performing a MES-based production time prediction method as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 6.
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