CN1163439A - Forecasting system for fire grade - Google Patents
Forecasting system for fire grade Download PDFInfo
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- CN1163439A CN1163439A CN 96115248 CN96115248A CN1163439A CN 1163439 A CN1163439 A CN 1163439A CN 96115248 CN96115248 CN 96115248 CN 96115248 A CN96115248 A CN 96115248A CN 1163439 A CN1163439 A CN 1163439A
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Abstract
The fire grate is calculated by means of the forecasting formula. The operation steps in computer are: to start Windows in Chinese, to enter Foxpro for Windows, to excute and to select with mouse the data system, meteorological element forecasting system and fire grade forecasting system. The present ivnention makes the fire grade forecasting automatic and raises fire preventing capacity.
Description
The present invention relates to the forecast system of fire size class standard and fire size class, particularly the forecast system of cities and towns fire size class.
At present, people mainly are risk of forest fire to the forecast of fire size class, forecast to the cities and towns fire size class does not still have standard and forecasting procedure, Heilongjiang Province observatory has made useful exploration to Harbin City's fire in spring forecasting procedure, received effect preferably, but be only limited to the forecast of single-point in spring, there are ground such as Shenyang, Shanghai to study later on successively, but do not obtain good effect, the forecast system of invention one cover cities and towns fire size class is applicable to that the fire risk rating forecast system in different location and month has become urgent need.
Task of the present invention is: design a kind of being suitable for and do any place and time cities and towns fire size class standard and forecast system, set up a cover operation system.
Task of the present invention realizes as follows: at first determine the fire size class standard and influence the factor of fire size class, the fire size class standard adopts Pyatyi system, one-level is a grade of occurrence index minimum, the possibility of breaking out of fire is very little, Pyatyi is a grade of occurrence index maximum, easy breaking out of fire and conflagration, adopting average occurrence index is the middle-bracket reference value of fire, / 10th of the calamity of a getting fire average originating rate is the reference value of minimum fire size class, be averaged 2.5 times of occurrence index and be the reference value of high fire size class, low, in between the reference value and in, value of each interpolation is as the reference value of on the low side and higher fire size class between the high reference value, five reference values have so just been made, the cut off value that the intermediate value of adjacent two reference values is decided to be these two grades, like this, five grades have four cut off value, fire size class grade scale---the fire size class standard that these four cut off value are exactly this ground.Influence the factor of fire size class: 1, what and fire/heat source strength of fire/thermal source; Many or intensity is big when fire/number of heat source, the danger of fire increases, otherwise reduces; 2, the burning performance of what and combustible of combustible, many or combustible is inflammable when combustible, the danger of fire also increases, otherwise reduces; 3, meteorological condition, when meteorological condition helped the fire generation, the danger of fire increased, otherwise reduces.More than three preceding two factors of factor regard as and often be in stable few become under certain average case, so just the fire forecasting problem being simplified to mainly is the problem relevant with meteorological condition, meteorological condition is mainly considered precipitation, relative humidity, temperature and wind speed four elements, draws one and is regardless of place and month, unified fire risk rating forecast logical model:
G＝3-R
0-R
0R
-1+U
1+(1-U
1)×[T
1+(1-T
1)×F
1]+U
2+(1-U
2)×[T
2+(1-T
2)×F
2]+(1-R
0R
-1)×{U
3+(1-U
3 2)×[T
3+(1-T
3 2)×F
3]}
In the formula:
The predicted value of G---fire size class;
R
0---forecast during 20-20 quantity of precipitation to the influence value of fire size class, when quantity of precipitation＜0.2 of forecast millimeter, R
0=0, when the quantity of precipitation of forecast during to influence value forecast day last one day of the 20-20 of fire size class during quantity of precipitation＜0.2 millimeter, R
-1=0, during forecast day last one day of 20-20 during quantity of precipitation＞0.1 millimeter, R
-1=1;
U
1, U
2, U
3---during forecast day 02 relative humidity to the influence value of fire size class, when relative humidity is less than this station of that month level Four fire humidity index when forecast day 02, U
1=1, otherwise U
1=0, when relative humidity is less than this station of that month Pyatyi fire humidity index during forecast day 02, U
2=1, otherwise U
2=0, when relative humidity is worked energetically 2 times of fire humidity index in this station this month during forecast day 02, U
3=-1, otherwise U
3=0; If corresponding desired value is 0 o'clock, the expression relation is bad, or does not have the index of this one-level, and at this moment, corresponding influence value is 0;
When the desired value of relative humidity greater than 100 the time, the expression relation will subtract desired value earlier when judging and use the relation opposite with above-mentioned relation to judge after 100 again with above-mentioned opposite.
F
1, F
2, F
3---during forecast day 08 wind speed to the influence value of fire size class, F when air speed value is greater than this station of that month level Four fire wind speed index when forecast day 08
1=1, otherwise F
1=0, when air speed value is greater than this station of that month Pyatyi fire wind speed index when forecast day 08, F
2=1, otherwise F
2=0, F when air speed value is less than this station of that month secondary fire wind speed index when forecast day 08
3=-1, otherwise F
3=0; If corresponding desired value is 0 o'clock, the expression relation is bad, or does not have the index of this one-level, and at this moment, corresponding influence value is 0;
When the wind speed desired value greater than 50 the time, the expression relation will first subtract 50 with desired value when judging, and then use the relation opposite with above-mentioned relation to judge with above-mentioned opposite;
T
1, T
2, T
3---temperature is to the influence value of fire size class during forecast day 02.Temperature is less than the round values of this station of that month level Four fire temperature index or greater than behind the index radix point during numerical value when forecast day 02, T
3=-1, otherwise T
3=0; If the value of index corresponding site is 0 o'clock, the expression relation is bad, or does not have the index of this one-level, and at this moment, corresponding influence value is D; Numerical value behind the index radix point has all added 50, wants when judging earlier the numerical value behind the index radix point to be subtracted 50, and then carries out above-mentioned judgement.
Use above-mentioned formula, under mean state, common hazard is three grades of intermediate grades, if having＞0.1 millimeter precipitation weather appearance, fire size class will reduce one-level, will fall one-level if connect the rainy day fire size class more.In addition, in temperature, wet, three meteorological element values of wind, if there is one to reach the level Four danger index, the fire size class one-level that will rise, if there is a meteorological element value to reach the Pyatyi danger index, the fire size class one-level that will raise again, if there is a meteorological element value not reach three grades of indexs, one-level should fall in fire size class.
Total system comprises fire size class index warm, wet in order to calculate easily, three key elements of wind, set up three corresponding data files respectively, with a station is a record, comprise station number and individual month desired value of 1-12 in the record, three desired values were arranged in every month, were respectively 3,4 grades of boundary indexs, 4,5 grades of boundary indexs and 2,3 grades of boundary indexs, each index series arrangement is merged into a fire danger low grade with 1,2 grade.
Native system can carry out in the cities and towns, the forecast of short-term and long-term fire danger grade; A middle or short term, fire risk rating forecast was on the basis of prediction of various weather constituents a middle or short term, set up the meteorological element storehouse, and according to the mathematic(al) mode of cities and towns fire risk rating forecast with temperature, relative humidity, daily precipitation amount, wind speed predicted value input model, compare, calculate, judge, finally make at that time the cities and towns fire risk rating forecast and on microcomputer, export a short-time forecast figure, prediction of various weather constituents in mid-term value is input in the model, can calculates the fire risk rating forecast in mid-term.
1., the meteorological data pre-service meteorological element short-term numerical forecasting is made up of four parts; 2., numerical model; 3., relevant with fire prediction of various weather constituents result exports; 4., forecast accuracy check, the structure of system and concise and to the point flow process are as follows:
System architecture and flow process
Native system is made up of four major parts: the meteorological data pre-service, and numerical model, true rate check is forecast in the prediction of various weather constituents result output relevant with fire, system architecture and concise and to the point flow process.
System's each several part function
1, meteorological data pre-service
The meteorological data input
After from real-time meteorological data storehouse, reading in meteorological newspaper (comprising ground and high-altitude), press survey station dictionary P1.DAT screening website, carry out the data formats conversion simultaneously, increase longitude, latitude and the sea level elevation of survey station.
2, meteorological data inspection mistake
Selected data is carried out extreme value, level and statics inspection, reject obvious irrational data.
A, extreme value inspection.The key element extreme value that occurs on each isopressure surface according to historical summary is made the boundary up and down of this layer data, is everyly rejected greater than maximum value or less than minimizing data (just this layer).
B, horizontal interpolation inspection.For each standard isobaric surface, the key element value of each survey station is compared in the horizontal interpolate value of this point with survey station around this station, δ A represents both differences.
Wherein Cn is a weight coefficient, Cn=(R
2-r
2)/(R
2+ r
2), R is a sweep radius, r for this station be verified the distance at station, N is the survey station sum in the sweep radius R, generally is advisable more than 5.δ A is compared with allowing difference maximal value MAX δ A, everyly surpass the person and rejected.
The vertical statics balance inspection of c, temperature and geopotential unit.Can calculate thickness between each layer according to the thermometer of each standard isobaric surface by the statics formula, compare, then will reject temperature or geopotential unit if both differences surpass given scope with actual measurement thickness.
3, objective analysis
Objective analysis is that branch high-altitude and surface data two parts carry out.Native system adopts the successive correction analysis of CRESSMAN.Its weight coefficient is:
W (i, j, n)=(R
2-r
2)/(R
2+ r
2) r＜R 0 r 〉=R wherein W (i, j, n) to be N point observation value go up the weight coefficient of value to net point (i, j), R is a sweep radius, r is the distance that N point and (i, j) put.At first obtain first value of guessing field with the large area scanning mode:
With observed reading the value of guessing field is progressively corrected then, the difference of correcting is:
Do (N) be around the n station 4 values of guessing by being inserted into the poor of value on this station and observed reading in the bidirectional linear.Scanning is carried out 5 times altogether, and each sweep radius dwindles with 0.7 times.In scanning process, sweep radius was for circular when geopotential unit and temperature were carried out objective analysis, when wind and relative temperature are carried out objective analysis, if sweep radius was taken as circle when wind speed was lower than the critical value of regulation, if wind speed during greater than the critical value of regulation sweep radius become ellipse, strengthen weighting function on the grain direction according to wind speed.
4, first value
Because the diurnal variation of surface pressure Ps is bigger, thus the surface pressure that directly observes do not adopted, but calculate surface pressure with the height of sea-level pressure, surface temperature, 850,700,500hpa layer etc.
At first carry out the interpolation of P during value just towards a face.Interior speed is by the linear relationship interpolation, and humidity and temperature are pressed the logarithmic relationship interpolation.Value just adopts the no divergence of whole layer of statics initial value to handle the influence that suppresses external gravity wave.
Numerical model
Numerical model is a three-dimensional, statical equilibrium, primitive equation model.Adopting Lan Botuo isometric projection plane right-angle coordinate, initial point is 3000*3000KM at north latitude 45 degree, east longitude 125 degree, lattice apart from 100KM, 31*31 The Mesh Point Battle, reference area
2, vertical direction adopts σZuo Biao, and σ=(P-Pt)/(Ps-Pt), Ps is a surface pressure, and Pt is a pattern top layer air pressure, and value is 150hpa.Vertical direction uniformly-spaced is divided into 10 layers.Terrain Elevation is by treated 1 °, and 1 ° of sea level elevation interpolation forms.
The physical process parametrization
The Main physical process that pattern is considered has:
Convective Parameterization Schemes is adopted in processing to water cycle process;
When potential instability appears in gas column, temperature lamination is done the convection current adjustment;
For the horizontal proliferation effect of simulating time grid vortex and control the nonlinear instability development and add the horizontal proliferation item;
The general boundaries layered scheme is adopted in the boundary layer, only consider momentum flux and sensible heat flux.
Consider the effect of landform.
Result's output
After the pattern integration is finished, with the value on the σ face again interpolation get back on the standard isobaric surface, and carry out relevant diagnostic analysis:
With the method for bidirectional linear interpolation according to 4 the meteorological element value in main cities and towns, grid value interpolation Heilongjiang Province around the survey station.Total Harbin, Heihe, Yichun, Qiqihar, Suihua, Jiamusi, Hegang, Mudanjiang, Jixi, 10 cities and towns of Baoqing.Factor content comprises the quantity of precipitation of 02 o'clock, 08 o'clock temperature relative humidity and wind and 24 hours.
Because fire risk rating forecast needed meteorological element in cities and towns is the value on ground, the influence that is subjected to local environment is bigger, if with after the pattern integral result interpolation, directly output has certain difficulty, and error is also bigger.According to this as can be known error of analysis result be have systematic.In order to address this problem, taked to forecast that difference is added in corrects on the live value the previous day.The result who does has like this solved with numerical forecasting terrain element interpolation forecast has been departed from bigger influence, makes the forecast result at single station can be more near actual value.If can not get the previous day during live value because of lacking newspaper, the result is except that 24 variation per hours forecast, predicted value will determine when man-machine conversation with 99999,9 replacements.
Final forecast result also forms file and is kept in the hard disk except that on-screen listings shows, calls for the fire forecast system.
The fundamental equation group
The fundamental equation group is the flux form.Comprise kinematical equation, thermodynamical equilibrium equation, moisture, continuity equation and statics equation: P
*U/t=-m
2[(P
*UU/m)/X+ (P
*UV/m)/y]
-(P
*Uσ)/σ-mP
*[(RT
v)/(P
*+P
t/
σ)(P
*/X)+(φ/X)]+fP
*V+F
HU+F
VUP
*V/t＝-m
2[(P
*UV/m)/X+(P
*VV/m)/y]
-(P
*Vσ)/σ-mP
*[(RT
v)/(P
*+P
t/
σ)(P
*/Y)+(φ/Y)]+fP
*U+F
HV+F
VVP
*T/t＝-m
2[(P
*UT/m)/X+(P
*VT/m)/Y]
-(P
*Tσ)/σ-m(RT
vω)/[C
PM(σ+
P
t/P
*)]+(P
*Q/C
PM)+F
Hr+F
VTP
*qv/t＝-m
2[(P
*Uqv/m)/X+(P
*Vqv/m)/
Y]-(P
*qV-P
*C+F
Vqv+F
vqvP
*/t＝-m
2[(P
*U/m)/X+(P
*V/m)/Y]-
(P
*Uσ)/φ/In(σ+P
t/P
*)＝-RT
Computing method
Network adopts Arakawa B form.The kinematics variable-definition is on net point, and other variable-definition is on intermediate point.Vertical speed is defined on the σ face, and other variable-definition is on the σ middle layer.
Time difference adopts central difference.
Boundary value adopt fixed boundary or the time become (preceding 12 hours or 24 hours variation tendencies) boundary condition.
Use native system prediction fire size class and add up the occurrence index of the fire size classes at different levels of each month, result and fire size class standard are on all four to account for 85%, with fire size class standard deviation one-level account for 15%, the native system that shows of poor secondary has not reached designing requirement.
Use cities and towns of the present invention fire risk rating forecast system to make the making of fire risk rating forecast and transmission realize increasingly automated processing, extending to forecasting centres at different levels uses, in time cities and towns fire risk rating forecast information is delivered to various places, make people take suitable defensive measure according to the forecast information of fire size class, improve the ability of defence fire, solved fireproof blindness.
Claims (3)
1, a kind of fire risk rating forecast system is characterized in that: fire size class G=3-R
0-R
0R
1+ U
1+ (1-U
1) * [T
1+ (1-T
1) * F
1]+U
2+ (1-U
2) * [T
2+ (1-T
2) * F
2]+(1-R
0R
1) * { U
3+ (1-U
3 2) * [T
3+ (1-T
3 2) * F
3].
2, the described running program of a kind of claim 1, it is characterized in that: it comprises the following steps:
1., start Chinese windows; After starting computing machine, enter the windows sub-directory, operational order is CD/windows, carries out the win executable file then;
2., enter foxpro for windows: organize in the menu windows master, mouse is moved on to foxpro for windows, twice mouse left button of double hit promptly started foxpro for windows.
3., carry out; In the execution dialog box of foxpro for windows, key in the Hoziexe file, can eject a dialog box: the content that comprises: towns of Heilongjiang fire risk rating forecast system, Database Systems, prediction of various weather constituents system, fire risk rating forecast system, TEXT.
Use mouse selecting data system, prediction of various weather constituents system and fire risk rating forecast system.
1., data system: be a drop-down menu, comprise Meteorology Data Database, fire document data base, combustible achievement data storehouse, can choose one wantonly and augment.
2., the prediction of various weather constituents system: also be a drop-down menu, comprise the required length of fire risk rating forecast, in, the forecast of short-term meteorological element, can choose one wantonly and operate.
3., fire risk rating forecast system: in comprising, the short-term fire risk rating forecast, can choose one wantonly and operate, the short-time forecast result exports on area map, the output of mid-range forecast the results list.
4., TEXT: be the menu that Chinese windows itself carries, can in menu, choose wantonly.
3, system operation program as claimed in claim 2 is characterized in that: meteorological element short-term numerical forecasting process flow diagram:
In the formula:
The predicted value of G---fire size class;
R
0---forecast during 20-20 quantity of precipitation to the influence value of fire size class, when quantity of precipitation＜0.2 of forecast millimeter, R
0=0, when quantity of precipitation＞0.1 millimeter of forecast, R
0=1;
R
1---during forecast day last one day of 20-20 quantity of precipitation to the influence value of fire size class, during forecast day last one day of 20-20 during quantity of precipitation＜0.2 millimeter, R
1=0, during forecast day last one day of 20-20 during quantity of precipitation＞0.1 millimeter, R
1=1;
U
1, U
2, U
3---during forecast day 02 relative humidity to the influence value of fire size class, when relative humidity is less than this station of that month level Four fire humidity index when forecast day 02, U
1=1, otherwise U
1=0, when relative humidity is less than this station of that month Pyatyi fire humidity index during forecast day 02, U
2=1, otherwise U
2=0; When relative humidity is greater than 2 times of fire humidity index in this station this month during forecast day 02, U
3=-1, otherwise U
3=0; If corresponding desired value is 0 o'clock, the expression relation is bad, or does not have the index of this one-level, and at this moment, corresponding influence value is 0;
When the desired value of relative humidity worked energetically 100, the expression relation was wanted when judging earlier desired value to be subtracted and is used the relation opposite with above-mentioned relation to judge after 100 again with above-mentioned opposite.
F
1, F
2, F
3---during forecast day 08 wind speed to the influence value of fire size class, F when air speed value is greater than this station of that month level Four fire wind speed index when forecast day 08
1=1, otherwise F
1=0, when air speed value is greater than this station of that month Pyatyi fire wind speed index when forecast day 08, F
2=1, otherwise F
2=0, F when air speed value is less than this station of that month secondary fire wind speed index when forecast day 08
3=-1, otherwise F
3=0; If corresponding desired value is 0 o'clock, the expression relation is bad, or does not have the index of this one-level, and at this moment, corresponding influence value is 0;
When the wind speed desired value greater than 50 the time, the expression relation will first subtract 50 with desired value when judging, and then use the relation opposite with above-mentioned relation to judge with above-mentioned opposite;
T
1, T
2, T
3---temperature is to the influence value of fire size class during forecast day 02.Temperature is less than the round values of this station of that month level Four fire temperature index or greater than behind the index radix point during numerical value when forecast day 02, T
1=+1, otherwise T
1=0; Temperature is less than the round values of this station of that month Pyatyi fire temperature index or greater than behind the index radix point during numerical value when forecast day 02, T
2=1, otherwise T
2=0; Temperature is greater than the round values of this station of that month secondary fire temperature index or less than behind the index radix point during numerical value when forecast day 02, T
3=-1, otherwise T
3=0; If the value of index corresponding site is 0 o'clock, the expression relation is bad, or does not have the index of this one-level, and at this moment, corresponding influence value is 0; Numerical value behind the index radix point has all added 50, wants when judging earlier the numerical value behind the index radix point to be subtracted 50, and then carries out above-mentioned judgement.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN 96115248 CN1163439A (en) | 1996-04-19 | 1996-04-19 | Forecasting system for fire grade |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN 96115248 CN1163439A (en) | 1996-04-19 | 1996-04-19 | Forecasting system for fire grade |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN1163439A true CN1163439A (en) | 1997-10-29 |
Family
ID=5122527
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN 96115248 Pending CN1163439A (en) | 1996-04-19 | 1996-04-19 | Forecasting system for fire grade |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN1163439A (en) |
Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN101832990A (en) * | 2010-05-12 | 2010-09-15 | 中国科学技术大学 | Movable on-line type fire situation grade detecting and evaluating system and method |
| CN102663082A (en) * | 2012-04-06 | 2012-09-12 | 昆明理工大学 | Forest fire forecasting method based on data mining |
| CN101719298B (en) * | 2009-11-23 | 2013-10-30 | 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所 | Method for remote sensing monitoring and early warning fire in sylvosteppe |
| CN104183080A (en) * | 2014-08-29 | 2014-12-03 | 武汉理工大学 | Smoke-sensing fire detection method and device |
| CN107657261A (en) * | 2016-12-23 | 2018-02-02 | 航天星图科技（北京）有限公司 | A kind of determination methods of the grassland burning fire point data based on remote sensing image |
| CN108765849A (en) * | 2018-06-04 | 2018-11-06 | 太仓迭世信息科技有限公司 | A kind of fire-fighting monitoring processing system for building interior smoking areas |
-
1996
- 1996-04-19 CN CN 96115248 patent/CN1163439A/en active Pending
Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN101719298B (en) * | 2009-11-23 | 2013-10-30 | 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所 | Method for remote sensing monitoring and early warning fire in sylvosteppe |
| CN101832990A (en) * | 2010-05-12 | 2010-09-15 | 中国科学技术大学 | Movable on-line type fire situation grade detecting and evaluating system and method |
| CN102663082A (en) * | 2012-04-06 | 2012-09-12 | 昆明理工大学 | Forest fire forecasting method based on data mining |
| CN104183080A (en) * | 2014-08-29 | 2014-12-03 | 武汉理工大学 | Smoke-sensing fire detection method and device |
| CN107657261A (en) * | 2016-12-23 | 2018-02-02 | 航天星图科技（北京）有限公司 | A kind of determination methods of the grassland burning fire point data based on remote sensing image |
| CN108765849A (en) * | 2018-06-04 | 2018-11-06 | 太仓迭世信息科技有限公司 | A kind of fire-fighting monitoring processing system for building interior smoking areas |
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