CN116316740A - Energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency calculation method considering new energy influence - Google Patents
Energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency calculation method considering new energy influence Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
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- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
- H02J3/46—Controlling of the sharing of output between the generators, converters, or transformers
- H02J3/466—Scheduling the operation of the generators, e.g. connecting or disconnecting generators to meet a given demand
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- H—ELECTRICITY
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Abstract
The invention discloses a calculation method for energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency considering new energy influence, which comprises the steps of obtaining thermal power installed capacity, hydroelectric installed capacity, energy storage installed capacity and maximum load demand of a preset area planning year; establishing an energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model by combining an electric power and electric quantity balance relation, and calculating to obtain thermal power starting requirements and energy storage capacity in a typical mode without considering new energy influence, so as to obtain corresponding energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency; and randomly generating a plurality of groups of new energy data according to the historical new energy data, sequentially and respectively calculating the thermal power starting-up requirement and the energy storage capacity corresponding to each group of new energy data to obtain the energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency of each group of new energy data, and determining the energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency considering the electric supporting capacity of the new energy according to the preset percentage electric confidence space. And the energy storage capacity efficiency of the high-duty ratio new energy power system is quantized to replace thermal power capacity efficiency, and the safety and the economical efficiency of the power system are effectively improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power systems, and particularly relates to a calculation method for energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency considering new energy influence.
Background
The great development of new energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaic and the like is an important way for realizing low-carbon transformation of the power system. Because the new energy output has volatility and uncertainty, the peak regulation problem of the power system is one of key factors restricting the development of new energy in order to cope with the challenges of large-scale new energy grid connection to long-term planning of the power system, and specific measures for fully playing the flexible regulation function of the power supply side or reasonably configuring energy storage are required to be provided.
The traditional power system taking thermal power as a main body is simple in power demand model, only a power gap corresponding to the maximum load moment needs to be calculated, and the power gap is generally directly supplemented by the thermal power with equal capacity. The novel power system takes new energy as a main body, the power supply of the new energy is unstable, the instability of the power supply of the new energy can be compensated to a certain extent by configuring the energy storage, but how to quantify the stable power supply capacity of thermal power + the new energy + the energy storage is a difficult problem of realizing power optimal configuration under the background of the novel power system.
Therefore, the invention provides the calculation method for the energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency considering the influence of the new energy, and the energy storage replacing thermal power capacity benefit rate in the high-duty ratio new energy power system can be quantized, so that a certain theoretical support is provided for power supply configuration and energy storage planning, and the safety and the economical efficiency of the power system can be effectively improved.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the technical problems, the invention provides a calculation method for energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency considering the influence of new energy.
The technical scheme adopted for solving the technical problems is as follows:
the energy storage capacity efficiency calculation method taking the influence of new energy into consideration for replacing thermal power comprises the following steps:
s100: acquiring thermal power installed capacity, hydropower installed capacity, energy storage installed capacity and maximum load demand of a preset area planning year;
s200: establishing an energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model by combining an electric power and electric quantity balance relation, and calculating according to the thermal power installed capacity, the hydroelectric installed capacity, the energy storage installed capacity and the maximum load demand to obtain a thermal power starting demand and an energy storage capacity in a typical mode without considering the influence of new energy sources, so as to obtain corresponding energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency;
s300: generating multiple groups of new energy data randomly according to historical new energy data, combining an energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model, an electric power and electric quantity balance relation, multiple groups of new energy data, a thermal power installed capacity, a hydropower installed capacity, an energy storage installed capacity and a load maximum demand to respectively calculate a thermal power starting-up demand and an energy storage capacity corresponding to each group of new energy data in sequence to obtain energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency of each group of new energy data, and determining energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency considering new energy power supporting capacity according to a preset percentage electric power confidence space; the new energy data comprise the output of wind power and photovoltaic, and the thermal power starting-up requirement and the energy storage capacity under the consideration of the new energy are smaller than those under the consideration of the new energy.
Preferably, the electric power/electric quantity balance relation in S200 is specifically:
in the method, in the process of the invention,
indicating the installed capacity of the thermal power at time i +.>
Represents the hydropower installation capacity at time i +.>
Indicating the energy storage capacity at time i +.>
Indicating the installed capacity of new energy at time i, < >>
Indicating the maximum load demand at time i,
the payload at time i is shown.
Preferably, in S200, an energy storage instead of thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model is established in combination with an electric power and electric quantity balance relation, which specifically includes:
energy storage capacity efficiency for replacing thermal power
Is as follows:
setting thermal power capacity to meet power supply safety requirements without considering energy storage
If a certain energy storage scale capacity is newly increased to be +.>
The thermal power capacity which can be reduced on the premise of meeting the safety of power supply is +.>
Energy storage replaces thermal power capacity efficiency>
The method comprises the following steps:
wherein:
in the method, in the process of the invention,
indicating the capacity of the energy storage machine, < >>
Indicating the energy storage time length +.>
Representing the energy storage charging and discharging efficiency;
the quantized relation between the thermal power, the new energy and the stored energy can be obtained by combining the above steps:
wherein when the new energy is not considered, the new energy takes a value of 0, when the new energy is considered, the new energy is selected from a plurality of combination conditions as discrete known quantity,
representing a payload maximum;
in the method, in the process of the invention,
representing the minimum capacity of the thermal power installation.
Preferably, the thermal power start-up requirement includes a thermal power start-up maximum value and a thermal power start-up minimum value, and when the influence of new energy is not considered, the thermal power start-up maximum value is in the electric power and electric quantity balance relation
0 +.>
The power-on minimum value of (C) is
The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the When the influence of new energy is considered, the maximum value of the thermal power on is +.>
Taking the new energy installation capacity at the moment i +.>
The thermal power on minimum value is +.>
。
Preferably, S300 includes:
s310: generating a plurality of groups of new energy data randomly according to the historical new energy data, combining an energy storage to replace thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model, an electric power and electric quantity balance relation, a plurality of groups of new energy data, thermal power installed capacity, hydroelectric installed capacity, energy storage installed capacity and maximum load demand, and calculating thermal power starting-up demand and energy storage capacity under each group of new energy data to obtain energy storage to replace thermal power capacity efficiency of each group of new energy data;
s320: and sorting the energy storage of all new energy data instead of the thermal power capacity efficiency according to the order from large to small, removing 5% of data before sorting, and determining the energy storage considering the new energy power supporting capacity according to the 95% power confidence space instead of the thermal power capacity efficiency.
According to the energy storage replacement thermal power capacity efficiency calculation method considering the influence of the new energy, the energy storage replacement thermal power capacity benefit rate in the high-duty ratio new energy power system is quantized, a certain theoretical support is provided for power supply configuration and energy storage planning, and the safety and the economical efficiency of the power system can be effectively improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for calculating energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency taking into consideration new energy influence in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 is a graph of a typical daily payload for a winter season in an example of a specific application of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a graph of wind power output coefficients selected in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 4 is a graph of the photovoltaic output coefficients selected in the examples of the specific application of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a diagram showing the new energy power ratio of the present invention applied in the embodiment;
FIG. 6 is a graph of minimum startup capacity of a thermal power obtained in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a graph showing the energy storage capacity benefit obtained in the examples of the specific application of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical scheme of the present invention better understood by those skilled in the art, the present invention will be further described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 1, a method for calculating energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency considering new energy influence includes the following steps:
s100: and acquiring the thermal power installed capacity, the hydroelectric installed capacity, the energy storage installed capacity and the maximum load demand of the planned year of the preset area.
S200: and establishing an energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model by combining an electric power and electric quantity balance relation, and calculating according to the thermal power installed capacity, the hydroelectric installed capacity, the energy storage installed capacity and the maximum load demand to obtain the thermal power starting demand and the energy storage capacity in a typical mode without considering the influence of new energy sources, so as to obtain the corresponding energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, the typical manner refers to the winter time of heavy load.
In one embodiment, the electric power/electric quantity balance relation in S200 is specifically:
in the method, in the process of the invention,
indicating the installed capacity of the thermal power at time i +.>
Represents the hydropower installation capacity at time i +.>
Indicating the energy storage capacity at time i +.>
Indicating the installed capacity of new energy at time i, < >>
Indicating the maximum load demand at time i,
the payload at time i is shown.
In S200, an energy storage instead of thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model is established by combining the electric power and electric quantity balance relation, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
energy storage capacity efficiency for replacing thermal power
Is as follows:
setting thermal power capacity to meet power supply safety requirements without considering energy storage
If a certain energy storage scale capacity is newly increased to be +.>
The thermal power capacity which can be reduced on the premise of meeting the safety of power supply is +.>
Energy storage replaces thermal power capacity efficiency>
The method comprises the following steps:
wherein:
in the method, in the process of the invention,
indicating the capacity of the energy storage machine, < >>
Indicating the energy storage time length +.>
Representing the energy storage charging and discharging efficiency;
the quantized relation between the thermal power, the new energy and the stored energy can be obtained by combining the above steps:
wherein when the new energy is not considered, the new energy takes a value of 0, when the new energy is considered, the new energy is selected from a plurality of combination conditions as discrete known quantity,
representing a payload maximum;
in the method, in the process of the invention,
representing the minimum capacity of the thermal power installation.
In one embodiment, the thermal power up demand includes a thermal power up maximum and a thermal power up minimum, where the thermal power up maximum is in the electric power and electric power balance relationship when the new energy is not considered
0 +.>
The thermal power on minimum value is +.>
The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the When the influence of new energy is considered, the maximum value of the thermal power on is +.>
Taking the new energy installation capacity at the moment i +.>
The thermal power on minimum value is +.>
。
S300: generating multiple groups of new energy data randomly according to historical new energy data, combining an energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model, an electric power and electric quantity balance relation, multiple groups of new energy data, a thermal power installed capacity, a hydropower installed capacity, an energy storage installed capacity and a load maximum demand to respectively calculate a thermal power starting-up demand and an energy storage capacity corresponding to each group of new energy data in sequence to obtain energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency of each group of new energy data, and determining energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency considering new energy power supporting capacity according to a preset percentage electric power confidence space; the new energy data comprise the output of wind power and photovoltaic, and the thermal power starting-up requirement and the energy storage capacity under the consideration of the new energy are smaller than those under the consideration of the new energy.
In one embodiment, S300 includes:
s310: generating a plurality of groups of new energy data randomly according to the historical new energy data, combining an energy storage to replace thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model, an electric power and electric quantity balance relation, a plurality of groups of new energy data, thermal power installed capacity, hydroelectric installed capacity, energy storage installed capacity and maximum load demand, and calculating thermal power starting-up demand and energy storage capacity under each group of new energy data to obtain energy storage to replace thermal power capacity efficiency of each group of new energy data;
s320: and sorting the energy storage of all new energy data instead of the thermal power capacity efficiency according to the order from large to small, removing 5% of data before sorting, and determining the energy storage considering the new energy power supporting capacity according to the 95% power confidence space instead of the thermal power capacity efficiency.
Specifically, the maximum energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency is selected from the remaining 95% of data to be determined as the thermal power starting-up requirement considering the new energy power supporting capability and the energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency.
According to the energy storage replacement thermal power capacity efficiency calculation method considering the influence of the new energy, the energy storage replacement thermal power capacity benefit rate in the high-duty ratio new energy power system is quantized, a certain theoretical support is provided for power supply configuration and energy storage planning, and the safety and the economical efficiency of the power system can be effectively improved.
A planning power grid in 2030 of a certain province is selected as a research object, and specific data are analyzed as follows:
in 2030, after the output of external electricity, water electricity and biomass is subtracted, a typical daily net load curve of winter is shown in fig. 2, wherein the maximum value of the typical daily net load of winter is 46000MW, and the minimum value of the typical daily net load of winter is 24800MW.
Considering configuration of 10000MW/60000MWh energy storage, according to the energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency calculation model, the minimum thermal power starting up required under the condition of not considering new energy is 39900MW, at the moment, the energy storage replacing thermal power installed capacity is 6100MW, and the capacity efficiency is 61.0%.
Considering that the wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity are 22000MW and 30000MW respectively, generating 100 groups of wind power output coefficient curves randomly generated according to historical data as shown in figure 3 and 100 groups of photovoltaic output coefficient curves as shown in figure 4, obtaining wind power and light output curves, obtaining minimum thermal power starting capacity corresponding to different new energy sources according to the energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency calculation model as shown in figure 6 and energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency as shown in figure 7.
Considering 95% power confidence space, determining that the lowest starting capacity of the thermal power is 36640MW, the corresponding energy storage capacity capable of replacing the thermal power installed capacity is 9360MW, and the capacity efficiency is 93.6%, as shown in table 1.
Table 1 calculation results of energy storage substitute thermal power capacity taking new energy influence into consideration
Therefore, the energy storage capacity efficiency of replacing thermal power under the influence of new energy is greatly improved, a certain theoretical support is provided for power supply configuration and energy storage planning, and the safety and the economical efficiency of the power system can be effectively improved.
The calculation method for the energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency considering the influence of new energy provided by the invention is described in detail. The principles and embodiments of the present invention have been described herein with reference to specific examples, the description of which is intended only to facilitate an understanding of the core concepts of the invention. It should be noted that it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various modifications and adaptations of the invention can be made without departing from the principles of the invention and these modifications and adaptations are intended to be within the scope of the invention as defined in the following claims.
Claims (5)
1. The energy storage capacity efficiency calculation method taking the influence of new energy into consideration for replacing thermal power is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s100: acquiring thermal power installed capacity, hydropower installed capacity, energy storage installed capacity and maximum load demand of a preset area planning year;
s200: establishing an energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model by combining an electric power and electric quantity balance relation, and calculating according to the thermal power installed capacity, the hydroelectric installed capacity, the energy storage installed capacity and the load maximum demand to obtain thermal power starting demand and energy storage capacity in a typical mode without considering the influence of new energy sources, so as to obtain corresponding energy storage replacing thermal power capacity efficiency;
s300: generating multiple groups of new energy data randomly according to historical new energy data, combining the energy storage to replace thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model, the electric power and electric quantity balance relation, the multiple groups of new energy data, the thermal power installation capacity, the hydroelectric installation capacity, the energy storage installation capacity and the load maximum demand to respectively calculate thermal power starting requirements and energy storage capacities corresponding to each group of new energy data in sequence to obtain energy storage of each group of new energy data to replace thermal power capacity efficiency, and determining energy storage taking the new energy power supporting capacity into consideration to replace thermal power capacity efficiency according to a preset percentage power confidence space; the new energy data comprise the output of wind power and photovoltaic, and the thermal power starting-up requirement and the energy storage capacity under the consideration of the new energy are smaller than those under the consideration of the new energy.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the electric power/electric quantity balance relation in S200 is specifically:
in the method, in the process of the invention,
indicating the installed capacity of the thermal power at time i +.>
Represents the hydropower installation capacity at time i +.>
Indicating the energy storage capacity at time i +.>
Indicating the installed capacity of new energy at time i, < >>
Indicating the maximum load demand at time i,
the payload at time i is shown.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the step S200 of establishing the energy storage instead of thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model by combining the electric power and electric quantity balance relation is specifically:
energy storage capacity efficiency for replacing thermal power
Is as follows:
setting thermal power capacity to meet power supply safety requirements without considering energy storage
If a certain energy storage scale capacity is newly increased to be +.>
Later on, also meeting the safety of power supplyThe thermal power capacity which can be reduced on the premise is +.>
Energy storage replaces thermal power capacity efficiency>
The method comprises the following steps:
wherein:
in the method, in the process of the invention,
indicating the capacity of the energy storage machine, < >>
Indicating the energy storage time length +.>
Representing the energy storage charging and discharging efficiency;
the quantized relation between the thermal power, the new energy and the stored energy can be obtained by combining the above steps:
wherein when the new energy is not considered, the new energy takes a value of 0, when the new energy is considered, the new energy is selected from a plurality of combination conditions as discrete known quantity,
representing the payloadA maximum value;
in the method, in the process of the invention,
representing the minimum capacity of the thermal power installation.
4. A method according to claim 3, wherein the thermal power-on demand includes a thermal power-on maximum and a thermal power-on minimum, the thermal power-on maximum being in a power-electricity balance relationship when new energy effects are not considered
0 +.>
The thermal power on minimum value is +.>
The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the When the influence of new energy is considered, the maximum value of the thermal power on is +.>
Taking the new energy installation capacity at the moment i +.>
The thermal power on minimum value is +.>
。
5. The method of claim 4, wherein S300 comprises:
s310: randomly generating a plurality of groups of new energy data according to historical new energy data, and calculating a thermal power starting requirement and an energy storage capacity under each group of new energy data by combining the energy storage to replace thermal power capacity efficiency evaluation model, the electric power and electric quantity balance relation, the plurality of groups of new energy data, the thermal power installation capacity, the hydroelectric installation capacity, the energy storage installation capacity and the maximum load requirement to obtain energy storage of each group of new energy data to replace thermal power capacity efficiency;
s320: and sorting the energy storage of all new energy data instead of the thermal power capacity efficiency according to the order from large to small, removing 5% of data before sorting, and determining to consider the energy storage of the new energy power supporting capacity instead of the thermal power capacity efficiency according to the 95% power confidence space.
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