CN116305956A - Crowd safety evacuation simulation method under extreme precipitation event - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a crowd safety evacuation simulation method under an extreme precipitation event, which comprises the following steps of S1: based on the two-dimensional shallow water model, carrying out extreme precipitation simulation to form flood inundation data; step S2: obtaining mobile phone signaling data based on a communication company to realize crowd area positioning; step S3: based on flood inundation data, performing risk analysis, and determining an optimal refuge site by combining a multi-objective equation; step S4: adopting an ABM model to simulate crowd evacuation; step S5: determining disaster-stricken people, determining people according to the people distribution data, and notifying; and determining an optimal evacuation route based on the evacuation simulation result. The invention adopts the crowd safety evacuation simulation method under the extreme rainfall event, and the method is based on a model technology based on a main body, and combines crowd distribution data to realize the rapid and accurate formation of urban crowd evacuation strategies under the flood disasters.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of flood crowd evacuation, in particular to a crowd safety evacuation simulation method under an extreme rainfall event.
Background
Under global climate change, flood disasters frequently occur, and in the rapid urban process of China, urban central areas are densely populated, and extreme rainfall seriously threatens the life safety of people. Therefore, the emergency evacuation strategy under extreme disasters has important practical significance for guaranteeing life safety of urban residents, the evacuation strategy of the system is established, the evacuation efficiency is improved, casualties are reduced, and the method is an effective mode of coping with flood disasters in cities.
At present, flood evacuation research methods can be divided into two main types, namely exercise and simulation, and the exercise cannot be performed on a large scale, cannot model a real environment and is easy to flow into a form. Therefore, the simulation method is more suitable for the flood crowd evacuation research. At present, a plurality of scholars conduct crowd simulation research, but the situations of small research area, unrealistic environment and the like exist, real-time simulation and emergency cannot be conducted, and the communication technology is not connected. Therefore, how to establish a crowd evacuation strategy is a great difficulty faced by the current cities which are easily affected by the flood disasters through information technology and combining computer simulation to realize effective flood disaster crowd evacuation research in real time.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a crowd safety evacuation simulation method under an extreme rainfall event, which adopts an ABM model and combines communication data to realize rapid and accurate formation of a disaster-affected crowd evacuation strategy, can determine evacuation modes, evacuation paths and nearest evacuation places required by evacuating crowds, greatly improves emergency speed and accuracy, covers the crowds to the maximum extent, and improves the emergency efficiency of flood disasters.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides a crowd safety evacuation simulation method under an extreme precipitation event, which comprises the following steps:
step S1: based on the two-dimensional shallow water model, carrying out extreme precipitation simulation to form flood inundation data;
step S2: obtaining mobile phone signaling data based on a communication company to realize crowd area positioning;
step S3: based on flood inundation data, performing risk analysis, and determining an optimal refuge site by combining a multi-objective equation;
step S4: adopting an ABM model to simulate crowd evacuation;
step S5: determining disaster-stricken people, determining people according to the people distribution data, and notifying; and determining an optimal evacuation route based on the evacuation simulation result.
Preferably, step S1 specifically includes:
step S11: acquiring geographic data (road network information, building contour information, elevation data and administrative boundary data) of a research area based on BIGEMAP, and integrating the data by means of GIS;
step S12: and (3) establishing a two-dimensional shallow water model, and adopting VISUAL STUDIO and CUDA to perform extreme precipitation simulation and form flood inundation data.
Preferably, step S2 specifically includes:
step S21: acquiring real-time mobile phone signaling data through a communication company;
step S22: and performing data processing through the GIS to form an urban crowd distribution data graph.
Preferably, step S3 specifically includes:
step S31: establishing a flood risk assessment index system from two dimensions of hazard and vulnerability based on the flood inundation simulation data of the distributed hydrological model;
step S32: the simulated submerged data can acquire the data such as the submerged depth, the submerged area, the flow rate and the like of the flood; the road network and river network density in the research area can be obtained according to an OSM map to form a GIS distribution map; GDP, population density, etc. may be obtained from Resource and Environment Science and Data Center, world Pop population, etc.;
step S33: processing the data by adopting SPSS, and determining each index weight;
step S34: and calculating flood damage and vulnerability scores based on a calculation formula, and obtaining objective risk scores, wherein the formula is as follows:
Flood Risk＝Hazard×Vulnerability (2)
in the formula (1), hazard is risk, vulnerability is Vulnerability, omega is weight, and I is index value;
in the formula (2), flood Risk is a Flood Risk;
step S35: constructing an emergency evacuation site selection optimization model based on the flood disaster objective risk score;
step S36: and (3) acquiring vertical evacuation places, and selecting the vertical evacuation places by combining the actual characteristics of the areas based on related data such as document reference and the like.
Preferably, step S4 specifically includes:
step S41: the method comprises the steps of obtaining and integrating basic data, and carrying out projection transformation and other unified coordinate systems through GIS (geographic information system) on the basis of flood inundation data formed by extreme precipitation in the step S1 by combining crowd data, road network data and evacuation place data;
step S42: setting basic parameters of a model, establishing an urban crowd evacuation model based on a multi-agent system method, and setting parameters;
step S43: setting a vertical evacuation place, wherein setting is performed in an ABM model based on the vertical evacuation place data established in the step S3;
step S44: and (3) model simulation, namely carrying out crowd evacuation simulation under the condition of the ratio of each person to the vehicle.
Preferably, step S5 forms a safe evacuation strategy, specifically comprising the steps of:
step S51: based on the crowd evacuation model simulation result, determining disaster-stricken crowd by combining crowd distribution data, and notifying crowd in real time through a communication company;
step S52: in the notification information, the evacuation route and the evacuation mode which the evacuation route can take are notified, and the nearest evacuation place is notified, so that safe evacuation is realized.
Preferably, in step S35, the flood emergency evacuation model is composed of an objective function and a constraint condition:
(a) Objective function:
minF 1 ＝∑ i∈A ∑ j∈B ω i d ij x ij (3)
maxF 2 ＝∑ i∈A ∑ j∈B ω i x ij p i (4)
maxF 3 ＝M (5)
(b) The constraint conditions are as follows:
wherein: a is the set of demand points within the study area, a= {1,2, …, i, …, n }; b is a set of emergency evacuation sites, b= {1,2, …, j, …, m }; y is j A decision variable of 0-1 for the emergency evacuation site j, if the emergency evacuation site j is selected to be 1, otherwise, 0 is selected; x is x ij The decision variable of 0-1 of the emergency evacuation place j corresponding to the demand point i is taken as 1 if the demand point i is covered by the evacuation place j, otherwise, taken as 0; omega i For the ith demand point risk weight, ω i ∈(0，1)；d ij Km is the distance between the demand point i and the emergency evacuation site j; p is p i 10 for the population number of the ith demand point 4 A person; d (D) j Is the maximum service range of the emergency evacuation site j, km; c (C) j Is the maximum capacity of the emergency evacuation site j, x 10 4 A person; m represents the minimum number of selected emergency evacuation sites.
Preferably, the parameter settings in step S42 include crowd moving speed (including normal distribution speed settings of most crowd), vehicle moving speed (setting maximum moving speed of vehicle), crowd casualty critical condition (flooding duration and flooding depth), crowd evacuation decision time (decision time of crowd decision evacuation).
Therefore, the crowd safety evacuation simulation method under the extreme rainfall event has the following beneficial effects:
(1) Building a real environment scene of the built environment based on BIGEMAP, GIS technology, population thermodynamic diagram and C++;
(2) Based on previous study, carrying out crowd evacuation by adopting a MAS model, and realizing crowd evacuation simulation of different speeds, different evacuation modes and different crowd types under different situations;
(3) And researching a street-scale emergency evacuation strategy by combining the geographic information and the spatial layout of the new street, so as to realize the optimized evacuation strategy.
The technical scheme of the invention is further described in detail through the drawings and the embodiments.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a general flow chart of a crowd safety evacuation simulation method under an extreme precipitation event;
FIG. 2 is an ABM model according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
Examples
The invention aims to provide a simulation method for crowd safety evacuation under an extreme rainfall event (based on ABMAgent Based Model and a model based on a main body), and the simulation method is used for describing the invention in detail by taking the test of the invention for flood emergency evacuation in a certain area as an embodiment, and has a guiding effect on the flood emergency evacuation applied to other areas.
As shown in fig. 1, in this embodiment, a crowd safety evacuation simulation method under an extreme precipitation event includes the following steps:
(1) The invention obtains basic data required by the invention, namely road network data, DEM data, building contour data and administrative boundary data in a BIGEMAP, and leads the basic data into a GIS for data processing; and (3) a SW2D-GPU (two-dimensional shallow water model) is operated in the VISTUAL and the CUDA, and characteristics such as an extreme precipitation evolution process, flood inundation time, inundation water depth, inundation range, flow speed and the like of a target area are predicted to form flood inundation data.
(2) Obtaining mobile phone signaling data based on a communication company to realize crowd area positioning;
cell phone signaling data: the space position of the user is determined through the information exchange of the mobile phone user between the base stations, so that the space-time track of the people stream can be recorded relatively accurately.
And importing the mobile phone signaling data into a GIS, and integrating formats through coordinate system conversion and the like to form crowd space distribution data.
(3) Based on flood inundation data, performing risk analysis, and determining an optimal refuge site by combining a multi-objective equation; by referring to research results of predecessors, the invention establishes a flood risk assessment index system from two dimensions of hazard and vulnerability based on flood simulation data of a distributed hydrological model, can acquire data such as flood depth, flood submerged area, flood flow rate and the like based on the flood data simulated in the step one, and can acquire road network and river network densities according to an OSM map to form a GIS distribution map; GDP, population density, etc. may be obtained from Resource and Environment Science and Data Center, world Pop population, etc.; processing the data by adopting SPSS, and determining each index weight; calculating flood damage and vulnerability scores based on a calculation formula, and obtaining objective risk scores; based on the flood disaster objective risk score, constructing an emergency evacuation site selection optimization model, and solving by adopting a genetic algorithm.
(4) Firstly, basic data are acquired and integrated. And (3) based on flood inundation data formed by the extreme precipitation in the step one, combining crowd data, road network data and evacuation place data, and performing a unified coordinate system such as projection transformation through a GIS.
And (3) setting basic parameters such as crowd moving speed, automobile moving speed, crowd casualty critical conditions, crowd evacuation decision time and the like in the ABM model, and setting in the ABM model based on the vertical evacuation place data established in the step (III). And finally, carrying out model simulation, and carrying out crowd evacuation simulation under the condition of considering different ratios of people to vehicles.
(5) Determining disaster (casualties) crowd, determining crowd through crowd distribution data, and notifying; and determining an optimal evacuation route based on the evacuation simulation result, so as to realize safe evacuation.
Therefore, the crowd safety evacuation simulation method under the extreme rainfall event is adopted, crowd distribution data is formed through mobile phone signaling data, the crowd is positioned, and the accuracy and timeliness of crowd identification are improved; flood inundation data are built based on the two-dimensional shallow water model, and the flood inundation data are imported into the ABM evacuation model together with crowd distribution data to perform evacuation simulation, so that a safe evacuation strategy is formed, the method can be used for urban complex areas with various scales, the accuracy of flood emergency evacuation path planning and crowd transfer notification is greatly improved, and the efficiency and effect of emergency risk avoidance safe evacuation of crowd in urban flood areas are improved.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention and not for limiting it, and although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that: the technical scheme of the invention can be modified or replaced by the same, and the modified technical scheme cannot deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical scheme of the invention.
Claims (8)
1. The crowd safety evacuation simulation method under the extreme rainfall event is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step S1: based on the two-dimensional shallow water model, carrying out extreme precipitation simulation to form flood inundation data;
step S2: obtaining mobile phone signaling data based on a communication company to realize crowd area positioning;
step S3: based on flood inundation data, performing risk analysis, and determining an optimal refuge site by combining a multi-objective equation;
step S4: adopting an ABM model to simulate crowd evacuation;
step S5: determining disaster-stricken people, and notifying the disaster-stricken people through crowd distribution data; and determining an optimal evacuation route based on the evacuation simulation result.
2. The method for simulating the safe evacuation of people in an extreme precipitation event according to claim 1, wherein the step S1 specifically comprises:
step S11: acquiring geographic data of a research area based on BIGEMAP, and integrating the data by means of GIS;
step S12: and (3) establishing a two-dimensional shallow water model, and adopting VISUAL STUDIO and CUDA to perform extreme precipitation simulation and form flood inundation data.
3. The method for simulating the safe evacuation of people in an extreme precipitation event according to claim 1, wherein the step S2 specifically comprises:
step S21: acquiring real-time mobile phone signaling data through a communication company;
step S22: and performing data processing through the GIS to form an urban crowd distribution data graph.
4. The method for simulating the safe evacuation of people in an extreme precipitation event according to claim 1, wherein the step S3 specifically comprises:
step S31: establishing a flood risk assessment index system from two dimensions of hazard and vulnerability based on the flood inundation simulation data of the distributed hydrological model;
step S32: obtaining flood submerged depth, flood submerged area and flood flow rate data according to the simulated submerged data; acquiring road network and river network density in a research area according to an OSM map to form a GIS distribution map; obtaining GDP and population density according to Resource and Environment Science and Data Center and World Pop populations;
step S33: processing the data by adopting SPSS, and determining each index weight;
step S34: calculating flood damage and vulnerability scores based on the following calculation formula, and obtaining objective risk scores:
Flood Risk＝Hazard×Vulnerability (2)
in the formula (1), hazard is risk, vulnerability is Vulnerability, omega is weight, and I is index value;
in the formula (2), flood Risk is a Flood Risk;
step S35: constructing an emergency evacuation site selection optimization model based on the flood disaster objective risk score;
step S36: and (3) acquiring vertical evacuation places, consulting related data based on documents, and selecting the vertical evacuation places by combining the actual characteristics of the areas.
5. The method for simulating the safe evacuation of people in an extreme precipitation event according to claim 1, wherein the step S4 specifically comprises:
step S41: the basic data are acquired and integrated, and projection transformation is carried out to a unified coordinate system through GIS (geographic information system) on the basis of flood inundation data formed by extreme precipitation in the step S1 by combining crowd data, road network data and evacuation place data;
step S42: setting basic parameters of a model, establishing an urban crowd evacuation model based on a multi-agent system method, and setting parameters;
step S43: setting a vertical evacuation place, wherein setting is performed in an ABM model based on the vertical evacuation place data established in the step S3;
step S44: and (3) model simulation, namely carrying out crowd evacuation simulation under the condition of the ratio of each person to the vehicle.
6. The method for simulating the safe evacuation of people in an extreme precipitation event according to claim 1, wherein step S5 forms a safe evacuation strategy, and specifically comprises the following steps:
step S51: based on the crowd evacuation model simulation result, determining disaster-stricken crowd by combining crowd distribution data, and notifying crowd in real time through a communication company;
step S52: in the notification information, the evacuation route and the evacuation mode that the evacuation route can take are notified, and the nearest evacuation place is notified.
7. The method for simulating safe evacuation of people in an extreme rainfall event according to claim 4, wherein in step S35, the flood emergency evacuation model is composed of an objective function and a constraint condition:
(a) Objective function:
minF 1 ＝Σ i∈A Σ j∈B ω i d ij x ij (3)
maxF 2 ＝Σ i∈A Σ j∈B ω i x ij p i (4)
maxF 3 ＝M (5)
(b) The constraint conditions are as follows:
wherein A is the collection of demand points in the research area,a= {1,2, …, i, …, n }; b is a set of emergency evacuation sites, b= {1,2, …, j, …, m }; y is j A decision variable of 0-1 for the emergency evacuation site j, if the emergency evacuation site j is selected to be 1, otherwise, 0 is selected; x is x ij The decision variable of 0-1 of the emergency evacuation place j corresponding to the demand point i is taken as 1 if the demand point i is covered by the evacuation place j, otherwise, taken as 0; omega i For the ith demand point risk weight, ω i ∈(0，1)；d ij Km is the distance between the demand point i and the emergency evacuation site j; p is p i 10 for the population number of the ith demand point 4 A person; d (D) j Is the maximum service range of the emergency evacuation site j, km; c (C) j Is the maximum capacity of the emergency evacuation site j, x 10 4 A person; m represents the minimum number of selected emergency evacuation sites.
8. A method for simulating the safe evacuation of people in an extreme precipitation event according to claim 5, wherein: the parameter settings in step S42 include crowd moving speed, vehicle moving speed, crowd casualty critical condition, and crowd evacuation decision time.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN117576876A (en) * | 2023-11-17 | 2024-02-20 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Urban flood disaster early warning method for potential involved personnel |
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| KR102482927B1 (en) * | 2022-02-11 | 2022-12-30 | 대한민국 | Simulation methods for evacuation in a Massive Disaster |
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Patent Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN106355332A (en) * | 2016-04-08 | 2017-01-25 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Flood disaster risk response method based on three-layer risk evaluation |
| CN113313384A (en) * | 2021-05-28 | 2021-08-27 | 华南理工大学 | Urban flood disaster risk assessment method integrating elasticity |
| CN113902168A (en) * | 2021-09-08 | 2022-01-07 | 长江信达软件技术（武汉）有限责任公司 | Flood emergency evacuation method based on real-time crowd data fusion |
| KR102482927B1 (en) * | 2022-02-11 | 2022-12-30 | 대한민국 | Simulation methods for evacuation in a Massive Disaster |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN117576876A (en) * | 2023-11-17 | 2024-02-20 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Urban flood disaster early warning method for potential involved personnel |
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