CN116258019B - Method, device, equipment and storage medium for simulating land utilization/coverage change - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a simulation method, a device, equipment and a storage medium for land utilization/coverage change, and relates to the technical field of data processing, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring historical land utilization/coverage data and historical related data of a target area; constructing at least one desired goal for balancing the first resource desire and the second resource desire of the target area; the first resource and the second resource are affected by a change in land use/coverage type; calculating a first resource coefficient and a second resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type in the target area; under the multi-constraint condition, predicting the future land demand under the expected target based on the first resource coefficient and the second resource coefficient; based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data, a land utilization/coverage change simulation diagram meeting future land demand is simulated, and realization of second resource expectations can be promoted while meeting first resource expectations through land utilization/coverage change simulation.
Description
Technical Field
The present invention relates to the field of data processing technologies, and in particular, to a method, an apparatus, a device, and a storage medium for simulating land utilization/coverage changes.
Background
One of the main causes of carbon emissions is Land use/cover variation (LUCC). Thus, the land utilization/cover type configuration contributes to reduction in the amount of emissions.
Forest is an important carbon sink, and has a key effect of protecting forest resources. An important indicator for measuring the forest resource level is forest accumulation. Forest memory refers to the total volume of the trunk portion of the trees in the forest.
Future land utilization/coverage changes require a trade-off of the first resource with the second resource under the requirement of increased carbon forest accumulation. The first resource and the second resource are two different resources affected by a change in the land use/cover type. However, the same type of land use/coverage change cannot provide the first resource and the second resource of a higher unit area at the same time, so that in future land use/coverage change prediction, the realization of the second resource desire cannot be promoted while satisfying the first resource desire.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a simulation method, device, equipment and storage medium for land utilization/coverage change, which are used for solving the defect that the first resource and the second resource with higher unit area cannot be simultaneously provided by the same land utilization/coverage change type in the prior art, so that the second resource can not be promoted while meeting the first resource expectation in future land utilization/coverage change prediction.
The invention provides a simulation method for land utilization/coverage change, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring historical land utilization/coverage data of a target area and historical related data which can drive the land utilization/coverage type to change under multiple factors in the target area;
constructing at least one desired goal for trading off a first resource desire and a second resource desire of the target area; the first resource and the second resource are two different resources affected by the change of the land utilization/coverage type;
calculating a first resource coefficient and a second resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type in the target area;
predicting future land demand under the expected target based on the first resource coefficient and the second resource coefficient under multiple constraints;
and simulating a land utilization/coverage change simulation graph meeting the future land demand based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data.
According to the simulation method for land utilization/coverage change provided by the invention, the future land demand comprises a future first production result and a future second production result; said predicting future land demand under said intended target based on said first resource coefficient and said second resource coefficient under multiple constraints, comprising:
Under the multiple constraints, predicting the future first production outcome at the intended target based on a cumulative sum of products between total areas respectively corresponding to the plurality of land utilization/coverage types and the first resource coefficients at the intended target;
under the multiple constraints, predicting the future second production outcome under the expected target based on a sum of the products between the total area respectively corresponding to the plurality of land utilization/coverage types and the second resource coefficient under the expected target.
According to the simulation method for land utilization/coverage change provided by the invention, the multi-constraint condition comprises the following steps:
the accumulated value of the product between the total forest area and the forest accumulation density corresponding to various forest ages of various forest stands is larger than or equal to the forest accumulation, and the total forest area is the sum of the original forest area and the newly-increased forest area;
the accumulated value of the products between the total area corresponding to the land utilization/coverage types and the first resource coefficients is larger than or equal to the sum of the first production results corresponding to the starting year and the ending year, and the first production result corresponding to each year is the product of the sum between the first production result acceleration rate of the year and 1 and the first production result corresponding to the starting year;
The total area corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type is greater than or equal to the minimum limiting area of the land utilization/coverage type;
the sum of the total areas respectively corresponding to the land utilization/coverage types is equal to the total area of the target area.
According to the simulation method for land utilization/coverage change provided by the invention, the forest accumulation density corresponding to each of a plurality of ages of the plurality of forest stands is calculated by the following expression:
；
；
；
wherein ,indicate->Seed stand->Biomass conversion factor corresponding to the age of the seed forest, </i >>Respectively represent +.>Seed stand constant, & lt & gt>Indicate->Seed stand->The forest accumulation density corresponding to the age of the seed forest,/->Representing biomass density,/->、/>、/>Respectively represent->Seed forest age constant,/->Representing the age of the forest.
According to the simulation method for land utilization/coverage change provided by the invention, the at least one expected target comprises at least one of a first expected target, a second expected target and a third expected target; wherein:
the first intended goal includes that forest land area is not reduced and the first resource is maximized;
the second intended goal includes forest accumulation being constant and the second resource being maximized;
The third expected goal includes an annual average expected rate of increase in forest reserve being a preset first rate of increase and an annual average expected rate of increase in a total amount of first resources being a preset second rate of increase, the preset first rate of increase being less than a maximum annual average expected rate of increase in the forest reserve, the preset second rate of increase being less than a maximum annual average expected rate of increase in the total amount of first resources.
According to the simulation method of land utilization/coverage variation provided by the invention, the simulation of the land utilization/coverage variation simulation diagram meeting the future land demand based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data comprises the following steps:
and distributing the quantity and the positions of the land utilization/coverage types to the target area according to a plurality of preset distribution rules based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data until the difference between the predicted land demand and the future land demand is smaller than a preset value, so as to simulate a land utilization/coverage change simulation graph meeting the future land demand.
According to the simulation method for land utilization/coverage change provided by the invention, the historical land utilization/coverage data comprises a plurality of data of the land utilization/coverage types, and the historical related data comprises a plurality of driving factor data; the plurality of preset allocation rules include:
The position suitability is used for representing the probability that each pixel in the target area becomes each land utilization/coverage type under the driving of the multiple factors, and the probability is obtained by carrying out logistic equation regression analysis on the multiple driving factor data;
a land type conversion restriction rule including whether or not the land use/coverage type is allowed to be converted into another land use/coverage type and a degree of difficulty of the land use/coverage type being converted into another land use/coverage type, which is obtained by a transfer matrix; the transfer matrix is obtained by analyzing data of a plurality of land utilization/coverage types, and is used for representing the transfer probability of each land utilization/coverage type converted into other land utilization/coverage types in two consecutive years;
a competitive rule of a land type for determining a difference between a current land demand and the future land demand based on the history-related data, and judging an area change amount of each of the land utilization/coverage types at the next allocation based on the difference;
A neighborhood effect rule of a land type, the neighborhood effect rule of the land type being used to determine that the land utilization/coverage type of the pixels at each location is affected by pixels within a neighborhood range when the land utilization/coverage type is changed;
space policy and restriction rules that include pixels for a restricted number of locations that do not allow the land utilization/coverage type to change in the future.
The invention also provides a simulation device for land utilization/coverage change, comprising:
the system comprises an acquisition module, a storage module and a control module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring historical land utilization/coverage data of a target area and historical related data which can drive the land utilization/coverage type to change under multiple factors in the target area;
a building module for building at least one desired goal for trading off a first resource desire and a second resource desire of the target area; the first resource and the second resource are two different resources affected by the change of the land utilization/coverage type;
the calculation module is used for calculating a first resource coefficient and a second resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type in the target area;
a prediction module for predicting a future land demand under the expected target based on the first resource coefficient and the second resource coefficient under a multi-constraint condition;
And the simulation module is used for simulating a land utilization/coverage change simulation graph meeting the future land demand based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data.
The invention also provides an electronic device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the steps of the land use/coverage variation simulation method as described in any one of the above when the program is executed.
The present invention also provides a non-transitory computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of a method of simulating land use/coverage variation as described in any of the above.
According to the simulation method, the simulation device, the simulation equipment and the storage medium for land utilization/coverage change, firstly, historical land utilization/coverage data of a target area and historical related data capable of driving land utilization/coverage types to change under multiple factors in the target area are obtained; constructing at least one desired goal for balancing the first resource desire and the second resource desire of the target area; calculating a first resource coefficient and a second resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type in the target area; secondly, under the multi-constraint condition, predicting the future land demand under the constructed expected target based on the first resource coefficient and the second resource coefficient which are obtained through calculation; that is, future land demand at the intended target is predicted by weighing the first resource and the second resource under multiple constraints; and finally, simulating a land utilization/coverage change simulation diagram meeting the future land demand based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data, and facilitating the realization of the second resource expectation while meeting the first resource expectation through the land utilization/coverage change simulation.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the invention or the technical solutions of the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described, and it is obvious that the drawings in the description below are some embodiments of the invention, and other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a simulation method of land utilization/coverage variation provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of land utilization/coverage change for a starting year of an area according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic representation of a simulation of predicted land utilization/coverage changes under a first intended target provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic representation of a simulation of predicted land utilization/coverage changes under a second intended target provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic representation of simulated land utilization/coverage variation predicted under a third intended target provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of a simulation apparatus for land utilization/coverage change according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 7 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
For the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
The simulation method of land utilization/coverage change of the present invention is described below with reference to fig. 1 to 5.
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a flow chart of a simulation method for land utilization/coverage change according to an embodiment of the invention. As shown in fig. 1, the method may include the steps of:
step 101, acquiring historical land utilization/coverage data of a target area and historical related data which can drive the land utilization/coverage type to change under multiple factors in the target area;
step 102, constructing at least one expected target, wherein the expected target is used for weighing a first resource expectation and a second resource expectation of a target area; the first resource and the second resource are two different resources affected by the change of the land utilization/coverage type;
Step 103, calculating a first resource coefficient and a second resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type in the target area;
step 104, under the multi-constraint condition, predicting the future land demand under the expected target based on the first resource coefficient and the second resource coefficient;
step 105, simulating a land utilization/coverage change simulation graph meeting the future land demand based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data.
In step 101, the target area may be an area to be studied, such as a province.
The historical land use/cover data includes a plurality of land use/cover type data. The plurality of land utilization/cover types may be 6 primary land utilization/cover types, for example: the cultivated land, woodland, grassland, water area, construction land, unused land, the present embodiment is not limited thereto, and may be of various secondary land utilization/coverage types. Historical land utilization/coverage data is raster data, which may have a data spatial resolution of 1km.
The history related data is related data which can drive the land utilization/coverage type to change under multiple factors in the target area, wherein the multiple factors can comprise society, nature and economy, and the history related data can be raster data. The history-related data may include a plurality of driving factor data, and the plurality of driving factors may include 13 driving factors in particular, for example: soil bulk density, soil sand content, soil silt content, distance to nearest river, distance to nearest road, distance to nearest railway, night light index, total regional production value, digital elevation model (Digital Elevation Model, DEM), gradient, annual precipitation data, annual air temperature data, population space distribution, the embodiment is not limited thereto, and may include other driving factors.
In step 102, where the desired goal is to trade off the first resource desire and the second resource desire of the target area, at least one desired goal may be constructed. Wherein the first resource and the second resource are two different resources affected by the change of the land utilization/coverage type, for example, the first resource can be economic benefit, and the second resource can be ecological benefit.
Optionally, the at least one desired target comprises at least one of a first desired target, a second desired target, and a third desired target; wherein:
1) The first intended goal includes that the forest land area is not reduced and the first resource is maximized;
2) The second intended goal includes forest accumulation being constant and second resources being maximized;
3) The third expected goal includes an annual average expected rate of increase in forest reserve being a preset first rate of increase and an annual average expected rate of increase in the total amount of first resources being a preset second rate of increase, the preset first rate of increase being less than a maximum annual average expected rate of increase in forest reserve, the preset second rate of increase being less than a maximum annual average expected rate of increase in the total amount of first resources.
For 1), assuming that the first resource is economic, the first intended goal is to maximize economic under the constraint that forest land area is not reduced.
For 2), assuming that the second resource can be ecological benefits, the second intended goal aims at achieving ecological benefit maximization under the constraint that forest accumulation is unchanged.
For 3), assuming that the first resource is an economic benefit, the third expected goal is to achieve an annual average expected rate of increase of the total amount of economic benefit to be a preset second rate of increase on the basis of the annual average expected rate of increase of the forest deposit to be a preset first rate of increase. Alternatively, the preset first growth rate is 2.78%, and the preset second growth rate is 4%, which is not limited thereto, as long as the preset first growth rate is smaller than the expected growth rate of the maximum annual average of the forest accumulation amount, and the preset second growth rate is smaller than the expected growth rate of the maximum annual average of the total economic benefit amount. The expected rate of increase in the forest reserve in the maximum annual average and the expected rate of increase in the total economic benefit in the maximum annual average can be obtained from the relevant policy file.
In the present embodiment, a plurality of possible expected targets in the future, namely, a first expected target, a second expected target, and a third expected target, may be considered.
In step 103, for the first resource coefficient, calculating the product of the weight of the first resource carried by each land utilization/coverage type and the total first resource of the target area to obtain the total first resource carried by each land utilization/coverage type; and calculating the ratio of the total first resource amount borne by each land utilization/coverage type to the total first resource amount of the target area to obtain a first resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type. Wherein the weight of the first resource carried by each land utilization/coverage type represents the relative magnitude of the contribution of that land utilization/coverage type to the first production outcome (e.g., regional production total). The first resource coefficient (0.693) of the construction land is the highest, and the first resource coefficients of other land utilization/coverage types are distributed between 0.038 and 0.161.
And for the second resource coefficient, calculating the second resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type in the target area based on the second resource coefficient calculated under the national scale and specific conditions such as the number, quality, space-time layout, suitability and the like of the land utilization/coverage types of the target area.
In step 104, under the multi-constraint condition, the area, the ecological benefit coefficient and the first resource coefficient corresponding to the various land utilization/coverage types are taken as independent variables, the expected target is taken as the dependent variable, and the future land demand under the expected target is predicted by a linear programming method.
In one embodiment, the future land demand includes a future first production, which may be a future regional production total (Gross Domestic Product, GDP), and a future second production, which may be a future ecosystem production total (Gross Ecosystem Product, GEP); step 104 comprises:
step 1041, under a multi-constraint condition, predicting a future first production result under an expected target based on a sum of products between total areas respectively corresponding to the plurality of land utilization/coverage types and the first resource coefficients under the expected target;
Step 1042, under the multiple constraint condition, predicting the future second production result under the expected target based on the sum of the products of the total area and the second resource coefficients under the expected target, which are respectively corresponding to the multiple land utilization/coverage types.
In step 1041, illustratively, the future first production result is a future regional production total, the first resource is an economic benefit, and the future regional production total is calculated by expression (1):
（1）
wherein ,indicating the future region production total GDP (ten thousand yuan), and>indicate->Economic benefit coefficient (ten thousand yuan/jersey) corresponding to the type of land utilization/coating>），/>Indicate->Total area corresponding to the type of land utilization/coverage (++>），i=1, 2, …,6, i.e. 6 primary land utilization/cover types, for example: cultivated land, woodland, grassland, water area, construction land, unused land.
In step 1042, illustratively, the future second production result is a future ecosystem production total value, the second resource is an ecological benefit, and the future ecosystem production total value is calculated by expression (2):
（2）
wherein ,representing the total future ecosystem production value GEP (ten thousand yuan), for example>Indicate->Ecological benefit coefficient (ten thousand yuan/10) corresponding to the type of land utilization/coverage >）。
In this embodiment, future first production results and future second production results under the intended target can be accurately predicted under the multi-constraint condition.
Alternatively, forest accumulation amount densities corresponding to a plurality of ages of a plurality of forest stands, respectively, are calculated by the following expressions (3) to (5):
（3）
（4）
（5）
wherein ,indicate->Seed stand->Biomass conversion factor corresponding to the age of the seed forest, </i >>Respectively represent +.>Seed stand constant, & lt & gt>Indicate->Seed stand->Forest accumulation density corresponding to the age of the planted forest），/>Representing biomass density,/->、/>、/>Respectively represent->Seed forest age constant,/->Representing the age of the forest.
Optionally, the multiple constraints include:
1) The accumulated value of the products between the total forest area and the forest accumulation density corresponding to the multiple forest ages of the multiple forest stands is larger than or equal to the forest accumulation, and the total forest area is the sum of the original forest area and the newly-increased forest area;
2) The accumulated value of the product between the total area corresponding to each of the plurality of land utilization/coverage types and the first resource coefficient is larger than or equal to the sum of the first production results corresponding to each of the initial year to the final year, wherein the first production result corresponding to each of the years is the product of the sum of the first production result acceleration rate of the year and 1 and the first production result corresponding to the initial year;
3) The total area corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type is greater than or equal to the minimum limiting area of the land utilization/coverage type;
4) The sum of the total areas respectively corresponding to the plurality of land utilization/coverage types is equal to the total area of the target area.
Illustratively, the first production effort is a regional production total, the first resource is an economic benefit, constraints 1) -4) can be described by expressions (6) - (9):
（6）
（7）
（8）
（9）
wherein ,indicate->Seed stand->Original forest area corresponding to the age of the seed forest, +.>Indicate->Seed stand->Newly increased forest area corresponding to the age of the seed forest (++>），/>Represents forest memory (+)>），/>Indicate->Economic benefit coefficient (ten thousand yuan/jersey) corresponding to the type of land utilization/coating>），/>Representing year (for example 2015 to 2030, 2015 is the beginning year, 2030 is the ending year), and +_>Representing year->Corresponding regional production total acceleration, +.>The corresponding region representing the target region of the starting year produces the total GDP (ten thousand yuan), ++>Indicate->Minimum limiting area of seed-soil utilization/cover type (++>），/>Representing the total area of the target area.
In this embodiment, a plurality of constraints are constructed that can predict future land demand in subsequent applications.
In step 105, land use/coverage change simulation is performed on the basis of the historical land use/coverage data and the historical related data acquired in step 101, and a land use/coverage change simulation map of the future land demand can be obtained.
Optionally, step 105 includes: and based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data, distributing the number and the positions of the land utilization/coverage types to the target area according to a plurality of preset distribution rules until the difference between the predicted land demand and the future land demand is smaller than a preset value, so as to simulate a land utilization/coverage change simulation graph meeting the future land demand.
Specifically, the land use/coverage change simulation model includes a spatial module that can allocate the number and positions of land use/coverage types to the target area according to a plurality of preset allocation rules based on the historical land use/coverage data and the historical related data, and a non-spatial module that can determine whether a difference between the predicted land demand and the future land demand is smaller than a preset value.
Illustratively, fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a land utilization/coverage change in a starting year of a certain area, that is, a schematic diagram of an initial land utilization/coverage change. As shown in fig. 2, six land utilization/coverage types are included, 1 representing arable land, 2 representing woodland, 3 representing grassland, 4 representing construction land, 5 representing unused land, and 6 representing water.
By the above steps 101-105, a simulated plot of land utilization/coverage change as shown in fig. 3-5 can be obtained for the three desired objectives described above.
Specifically, as shown in fig. 3, the simulated schematic diagram of the predicted land utilization/coverage change under the first expected target has the advantages of reduced grassland area, increased construction land area, reduced unused land area, and thus the first expected target that the forest land area is not reduced and the economic benefit is maximized.
The simulated schematic of the predicted land utilization/coverage change under the second expected goal as shown in fig. 4 increases the land area and decreases the unused land area, thereby realizing the unchanged forest accumulation and the maximized ecological benefits.
As shown in fig. 5, the simulated diagram of the predicted land utilization/coverage change under the third expected goal, the cultivated land area is properly reduced, the unused land area is reduced, and the land area for construction is increased, thereby realizing the first expected annual growth rate of the total economic benefit is a second expected annual growth rate.
It should be noted that fig. 2 to 5 are only for illustrating the land use/coverage change map, and the present embodiment is not limited thereto.
In this embodiment, a land use/coverage change simulation method is provided, which can distribute the number and positions of land use/coverage types to a target area according to a plurality of preset distribution rules, and simulate a land use/coverage change simulation map satisfying future land demand.
Optionally, the plurality of preset allocation rules includes:
1) The position suitability is used for representing the probability that each pixel in the target area becomes each land utilization/coverage type under the driving of multiple factors, and the probability is obtained by carrying out Logistic equation regression analysis on multiple driving factor data;
2) Land type conversion restriction rules including whether or not to allow land utilization/coverage type conversion to other land utilization/coverage type and how easy it is to convert land utilization/coverage type to other land utilization/coverage type, obtained by transferring matrix, for example: the difficulty level of cultivated land and woodland is set to 0.5, the unused land and water area are set to 1, the grassland is set to 0.6, and the construction land is set to 0.7; the transfer matrix is obtained by analyzing data of a plurality of land utilization/coverage types, and is used for representing the transfer probability of each land utilization/coverage type to be converted into other land utilization/coverage types in two consecutive years;
3) The competitive advantage rule of the land type is used for determining the difference between the current land demand and the future land demand based on the historical related data, and judging the area change amount of each land utilization/coverage type in the next allocation based on the difference;
4) A neighborhood effect rule of a land type, wherein the neighborhood effect rule of the land type is used for determining that the land utilization/coverage type of the pixels at each position is influenced by the pixels in a neighborhood range when the land utilization/coverage type is changed;
5) Spatial policies and restriction rules may include restricting the pixels at multiple locations from allowing changes in land utilization/coverage types in the future.
In this embodiment, a plurality of preset allocation rules, namely, location suitability, land type conversion restriction rules, competitive advantage rules of land types, neighborhood effect rules of land types, space policies and restriction rules, may be obtained.
According to the simulation method for land utilization/coverage change provided by the embodiment, firstly, historical land utilization/coverage data of a target area and historical related data capable of driving land utilization/coverage types to change under multiple factors in the target area are obtained; constructing at least one desired goal for balancing the first resource desire and the second resource desire of the target area; calculating a first resource coefficient and a second resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type in the target area; secondly, under the multi-constraint condition, predicting the future land demand under the constructed expected target based on the first resource coefficient and the second resource coefficient which are obtained through calculation; that is, future land demand at the intended target is predicted by weighing the first resource and the second resource under multiple constraints; and finally, simulating a land utilization/coverage change simulation diagram meeting the future land demand based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data, and facilitating the realization of the second resource expectation while meeting the first resource expectation through the land utilization/coverage change simulation.
The land utilization/coverage change simulation device provided by the invention is described below, and the land utilization/coverage change simulation device described below and the land utilization/coverage change simulation method described above can be referred to correspondingly.
Referring to fig. 6, fig. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of a simulation device for land utilization/coverage change according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 6, the apparatus may include:
an acquisition module 10, configured to acquire historical land use/coverage data of a target area, and historical related data capable of driving a change in land use/coverage type under multiple factors in the target area;
a building module 20 for building at least one desired goal for trading off a first resource desire and a second resource desire of a target area; the first resource and the second resource are two different resources affected by the change of land utilization/coverage type;
a calculation module 30, configured to calculate a first resource coefficient and a second resource coefficient corresponding to each land use/coverage type in the target area;
a prediction module 40 for predicting future land demand under an expected target based on the first resource coefficient and the second resource coefficient under multiple constraints;
The simulation module 50 is configured to simulate a land utilization/coverage change simulation map satisfying a future land demand based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data.
Optionally, the future land demand includes a future first production effort and a future second production effort; the prediction module 40 is specifically configured to:
under the multi-constraint condition, predicting future first production results under the expected targets based on the accumulated sum of products between total areas respectively corresponding to the plurality of land utilization/coverage types and the first resource coefficients under the expected targets;
under multiple constraints, predicting a future second production outcome under the expected target based on a cumulative sum of products between the total area and the second resource coefficients under the expected target, the total area corresponding to the multiple land utilization/coverage types, respectively.
Optionally, the multiple constraints include:
the accumulated value of the products between the total forest area and the forest accumulation density corresponding to the multiple forest ages of the multiple forest stands is larger than or equal to the forest accumulation, and the total forest area is the sum of the original forest area and the newly-increased forest area;
the accumulated value of the product between the total area corresponding to each of the plurality of land utilization/coverage types and the first resource coefficient is larger than or equal to the sum of the first production results corresponding to each of the initial year to the final year, wherein the first production result corresponding to each of the years is the product of the sum of the first production result acceleration rate of the year and 1 and the first production result corresponding to the initial year;
The total area corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type is greater than or equal to the minimum limiting area of the land utilization/coverage type;
the sum of the total areas respectively corresponding to the plurality of land utilization/coverage types is equal to the total area of the target area.
Optionally, the prediction module 40 is further configured to calculate forest accumulation densities corresponding to a plurality of ages of the plurality of forest stands respectively by the following expression:
；
；
；/>
wherein ,indicate->Seed stand->Biomass conversion factor corresponding to the age of the seed forest, </i >>Respectively represent +.>Seed stand constant, & lt & gt>Indicate->Seed stand->Forest stock density corresponding to the age of the seed forest, < >>Representing biomass density,/->、/>、/>Respectively represent->Seed forest age constant,/->Representing the age of the forest.
Optionally, the at least one desired target comprises at least one of a first desired target, a second desired target, and a third desired target; wherein:
the first intended goal includes that the forest land area is not reduced and the first resource is maximized;
the second intended goal includes forest accumulation being constant and second resources being maximized;
the third expected goal includes an annual average expected rate of increase in forest reserve being a preset first rate of increase and an annual average expected rate of increase in the total amount of first resources being a preset second rate of increase, the preset first rate of increase being less than a maximum annual average expected rate of increase in forest reserve, the preset second rate of increase being less than a maximum annual average expected rate of increase in the total amount of first resources.
Optionally, the simulation module 50 is specifically configured to:
and based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data, distributing the number and the positions of the land utilization/coverage types to the target area according to a plurality of preset distribution rules until the difference between the predicted land demand and the future land demand is smaller than a preset value, so as to simulate a land utilization/coverage change simulation graph meeting the future land demand.
Optionally, the historical land use/cover data includes data of a plurality of land use/cover types; the history-related data includes a plurality of driving factor data; the plurality of preset allocation rules include:
the position suitability is used for representing the probability that each pixel in the target area becomes each land utilization/coverage type under the driving of multiple factors, and the probability is obtained by carrying out logistic equation regression analysis on data of multiple driving factors;
a land type conversion restriction rule including whether or not the land utilization/coverage type is allowed to be converted into another land utilization/coverage type and a degree of difficulty in converting the land utilization/coverage type into another land utilization/coverage type, which are obtained by transferring the matrix; the transfer matrix is obtained by analyzing data of a plurality of land utilization/coverage types, and is used for representing the transfer probability of each land utilization/coverage type to be converted into other land utilization/coverage types in two consecutive years;
The competitive advantage rule of the land type is used for determining the difference between the current land demand and the future land demand based on the historical related data, and judging the area change amount of each land utilization/coverage type in the next allocation based on the difference;
a neighborhood effect rule of a land type, wherein the neighborhood effect rule of the land type is used for determining that the land utilization/coverage type of the pixels at each position is influenced by the pixels in a neighborhood range when the land utilization/coverage type is changed;
spatial policy and restriction rules, which include pixels of a restricted plurality of locations that do not allow for changes in land utilization/coverage types in the future.
Fig. 7 illustrates a physical schematic diagram of an electronic device, as shown in fig. 7, which may include: processor 810, communication interface (Communications Interface) 820, memory 830, and communication bus 840, wherein processor 810, communication interface 820, memory 830 accomplish communication with each other through communication bus 840. Processor 810 may invoke logic instructions in memory 830 to perform a simulation method of land utilization/coverage changes, the method comprising:
Acquiring historical land utilization/coverage data of a target area and historical related data which can drive the land utilization/coverage type to change under multiple factors in the target area;
constructing at least one expected target for balancing the first resource desirability and the second resource desirability of the target area; the first resource and the second resource are two different resources affected by the change of land utilization/coverage type;
calculating a first resource coefficient and a second resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type in the target area;
under the multi-constraint condition, predicting the future land demand under the expected target based on the first resource coefficient and the second resource coefficient;
based on the historical land use/coverage data and the historical related data, a land use/coverage change simulation map satisfying future land demand is simulated.
Further, the logic instructions in the memory 830 described above may be implemented in the form of software functional units and may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium when sold or used as a stand-alone product. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention may be embodied essentially or in a part contributing to the prior art or in a part of the technical solution in the form of a software product stored in a storage medium, comprising several instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method of the embodiments of the present invention. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a U-disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a random access Memory (RAM, random Access Memory), a magnetic disk, or an optical disk, or other various media capable of storing program codes.
In another aspect, the present invention also provides a computer program product comprising a computer program stored on a non-transitory computer readable storage medium, the computer program comprising program instructions which, when executed by a computer, are capable of performing a method of simulating a land use/coverage change provided by the above methods, the method comprising:
acquiring historical land utilization/coverage data of a target area and historical related data which can drive the land utilization/coverage type to change under multiple factors in the target area;
constructing at least one expected target for balancing the first resource desirability and the second resource desirability of the target area; the first resource and the second resource are two different resources affected by the change of land utilization/coverage type;
calculating a first resource coefficient and a second resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type in the target area;
under the multi-constraint condition, predicting the future land demand under the expected target based on the first resource coefficient and the second resource coefficient;
based on the historical land use/coverage data and the historical related data, a land use/coverage change simulation map satisfying future land demand is simulated.
In yet another aspect, the present invention also provides a non-transitory computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, is implemented to perform the above-provided land utilization/coverage change simulation method, the method comprising:
acquiring historical land utilization/coverage data of a target area and historical related data which can drive the land utilization/coverage type to change under multiple factors in the target area;
constructing at least one expected target for balancing the first resource desirability and the second resource desirability of the target area; the first resource and the second resource are two different resources affected by the change of land utilization/coverage type;
calculating a first resource coefficient and a second resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type in the target area;
under the multi-constraint condition, predicting the future land demand under the expected target based on the first resource coefficient and the second resource coefficient;
based on the historical land use/coverage data and the historical related data, a land use/coverage change simulation map satisfying future land demand is simulated.
The apparatus embodiments described above are merely illustrative, wherein elements illustrated as separate elements may or may not be physically separate, and elements shown as elements may or may not be physical elements, may be located in one place, or may be distributed over a plurality of network elements. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment. Those of ordinary skill in the art will understand and implement the present invention without undue burden.
From the above description of the embodiments, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that the embodiments may be implemented by means of software plus necessary general hardware platforms, or of course may be implemented by means of hardware. Based on such understanding, the foregoing technical solutions may be embodied essentially or in part in the form of a software product, which may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as a ROM/RAM, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, etc., including several instructions to cause a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform the various embodiments or methods of some parts of the embodiments.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention, and are not limiting; although the invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical scheme described in the foregoing embodiments can be modified or some technical features thereof can be replaced by equivalents; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. A method of simulating a land use/coverage change, comprising:
acquiring historical land utilization/coverage data of a target area and historical related data which can drive the land utilization/coverage type to change under multiple factors in the target area;
constructing at least one desired goal for trading off a first resource desire and a second resource desire of the target area; the first resource and the second resource are two different resources affected by the change of the land utilization/coverage type;
calculating a first resource coefficient and a second resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type in the target area;
predicting future land demand under the expected target based on the first resource coefficient and the second resource coefficient under multiple constraints;
simulating a land utilization/coverage change simulation map satisfying the future land demand based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data;
the future land demand comprises a future first production result and a future second production result, wherein the future first production result is a future regional production total value, and the future second production result is a future ecosystem production total value; said predicting future land demand under said intended target based on said first resource coefficient and said second resource coefficient under multiple constraints, comprising:
Under the multiple constraints, predicting the future first production outcome at the intended target based on a cumulative sum of products between total areas respectively corresponding to the plurality of land utilization/coverage types and the first resource coefficients at the intended target;
under the multiple constraints, predicting the future second production outcome under the expected target based on a sum of the products between the total area respectively corresponding to the plurality of land utilization/coverage types and the second resource coefficient under the expected target.
2. A method of modeling land use/coverage variation as claimed in claim 1 wherein said multiple constraints include:
the accumulated value of the product between the total forest area and the forest accumulation density corresponding to various forest ages of various forest stands is larger than or equal to the forest accumulation, and the total forest area is the sum of the original forest area and the newly-increased forest area;
the accumulated value of the products between the total area corresponding to the land utilization/coverage types and the first resource coefficients is larger than or equal to the sum of the first production results corresponding to the starting year and the ending year, and the first production result corresponding to each year is the product of the sum between the first production result acceleration rate of the year and 1 and the first production result corresponding to the starting year;
The total area corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type is greater than or equal to the minimum limiting area of the land utilization/coverage type;
the sum of the total areas respectively corresponding to the land utilization/coverage types is equal to the total area of the target area.
3. A simulation method of land utilization/coverage change as claimed in claim 2, wherein the forest pool density for each of the plurality of forest ages of the plurality of forest stands is calculated by the following expression:
；
；
；
wherein ,indicate->Seed stand->Biomass conversion factor corresponding to the age of the seed forest, </i >>、/>Respectively represent +.>Seed stand constant, & lt & gt>Indicate->Seed stand->The forest accumulation density corresponding to the age of the seed forest,/->Representation ofBiomass density (I/O)>、/>、/>Respectively represent +.>Seed forest age constant,/->Representing the age of the forest.
4. The method of simulating land utilization/coverage variation of claim 1, wherein the at least one intended target comprises at least one of a first intended target, a second intended target, and a third intended target; wherein:
the first intended goal includes that forest land area is not reduced and the first resource is maximized;
the second intended goal includes forest accumulation being constant and the second resource being maximized;
The third expected goal includes an annual average expected rate of increase in forest reserve being a preset first rate of increase and an annual average expected rate of increase in a total amount of first resources being a preset second rate of increase, the preset first rate of increase being less than a maximum annual average expected rate of increase in the forest reserve, the preset second rate of increase being less than a maximum annual average expected rate of increase in the total amount of first resources.
5. The method of simulating land use/coverage variation as claimed in claim 1, wherein simulating a land use/coverage variation simulation map satisfying the future land demand based on the historical land use/coverage data and the historical related data comprises:
and distributing the quantity and the positions of the land utilization/coverage types to the target area according to a plurality of preset distribution rules based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data until the difference between the predicted land demand and the future land demand is smaller than a preset value, so as to simulate a land utilization/coverage change simulation graph meeting the future land demand.
6. The method of simulating land use/coverage variation of claim 5, wherein said historical land use/coverage data comprises data for a plurality of said land use/coverage types; the history related data includes a plurality of driving factor data; the plurality of preset allocation rules include:
The position suitability is used for representing the probability that each pixel in the target area becomes each land utilization/coverage type under the driving of the multiple factors, and the probability is obtained by carrying out logistic equation regression analysis on the multiple driving factor data;
a land type conversion restriction rule including whether or not the land use/coverage type is allowed to be converted into another land use/coverage type and a degree of difficulty of the land use/coverage type being converted into another land use/coverage type, which is obtained by a transfer matrix; the transfer matrix is obtained by analyzing data of a plurality of land utilization/coverage types, and is used for representing the transfer probability of each land utilization/coverage type converted into other land utilization/coverage types in two consecutive years;
a competitive rule of a land type for determining a difference between a current land demand and the future land demand based on the history-related data, and judging an area change amount of each of the land utilization/coverage types at the next allocation based on the difference;
A neighborhood effect rule of a land type, the neighborhood effect rule of the land type being used to determine that the land utilization/coverage type of the pixels at each location is affected by pixels within a neighborhood range when the land utilization/coverage type is changed;
space policy and restriction rules that include pixels for a restricted number of locations that do not allow the land utilization/coverage type to change in the future.
7. A land utilization/coverage change simulation apparatus, comprising:
the system comprises an acquisition module, a storage module and a control module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring historical land utilization/coverage data of a target area and historical related data which can drive the land utilization/coverage type to change under multiple factors in the target area;
a building module for building at least one desired goal for trading off a first resource desire and a second resource desire of the target area; the first resource and the second resource are two different resources affected by the change of the land utilization/coverage type;
the calculation module is used for calculating a first resource coefficient and a second resource coefficient corresponding to each land utilization/coverage type in the target area;
a prediction module for predicting a future land demand under the expected target based on the first resource coefficient and the second resource coefficient under a multi-constraint condition;
The simulation module is used for simulating a land utilization/coverage change simulation diagram meeting the future land demand based on the historical land utilization/coverage data and the historical related data;
the future land demand comprises a future first production result and a future second production result, wherein the future first production result is a future regional production total value, and the future second production result is a future ecosystem production total value; the prediction module is specifically configured to:
under the multiple constraints, predicting the future first production outcome at the intended target based on a cumulative sum of products between total areas respectively corresponding to the plurality of land utilization/coverage types and the first resource coefficients at the intended target;
under the multiple constraints, predicting the future second production outcome under the expected target based on a sum of the products between the total area respectively corresponding to the plurality of land utilization/coverage types and the second resource coefficient under the expected target.
8. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the processor implements the steps of the method for simulating land utilization/coverage changes according to any one of claims 1 to 6 when the program is executed.
9. A non-transitory computer readable storage medium, having stored thereon a computer program, characterized in that the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method of simulating land utilization/coverage variation according to any of claims 1 to 6.
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