CN116227910A - Urban gas pipeline leakage risk assessment method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of fuel gas transportation, in particular to a town fuel gas pipeline leakage risk assessment method, which comprises the following steps: step one: establishing a pipeline leakage possibility and failure result index system and weights, wherein the pipeline leakage possibility and failure result index system comprises the steps of establishing a first-level index and weight of the pipeline leakage possibility, establishing a second-level index, weight, comment and scoring of the pipeline leakage possibility, and establishing a second-level index, weight, comment and scoring of the pipeline leakage result index; step two: defining failure possibility, failure result and leakage risk calculation method; step three: defining risk grades, dividing pipeline leakage failure into high risk, medium risk and low risk, selecting typical pipeline sections for scoring according to the managed pipelines, and returning high risk grading scores, medium risk grading scores and low risk grading scores; step four: the invention can effectively identify the leakage high risk point of the in-service town gas pipeline, determine the leakage failure risk level and provide advice for the safe operation and maintenance of the town gas pipeline.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of fuel gas transportation, in particular to a risk assessment method for leakage of a town fuel gas pipeline.
Background
The safety of the town gas pipeline is related to thousands of households, with the continuous increase of mileage of the town gas pipeline, the following risks and challenges are also continuously increased, and once the gas pipeline leaks, sudden and disastrous accidents such as fire, explosion and the like are often caused; the risk evaluation of the town gas pipeline is often developed by referring to a long-distance oil and gas pipeline, but the town gas pipeline has the characteristics of building conditions, distribution forms, pipeline materials, operating pressures, pipe diameter sizes, corrosion forms, failure reasons, laying environments, geographic spaces and the like, and the risk evaluation method of the long-distance pipeline has obvious differences from the long-distance pipeline, has poor applicability, and cannot effectively reflect the risk condition of the gas pipeline; therefore, there is a need to combine the characteristics of town gas pipes to establish a leakage risk assessment method applicable to town gas pipes; therefore, a town gas pipe leakage risk assessment method is provided for the problems.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a town gas pipeline leakage risk assessment method which can effectively assess leakage high risk points of in-service town gas pipelines, determine leakage failure risk levels, improve the prevention efficiency of town gas pipeline operators and reduce pipeline accidents.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:
a town gas pipeline leakage risk assessment method comprises the following steps:
(1) Establishing a pipeline leakage possibility and failure result index system and weights;
(1) establishing a first-level index and a weight of the possibility of pipeline leakage; the first-level indexes of the leakage risk of the gas pipeline comprise 6 first-level indexes (P) of third-party damage, corrosion and aging, geological disasters, inherent damage of the pipeline, leakage of a pressure regulating box and leakage of a valve well 1 -P 6 ) Classifying and counting historical risk events of a gas company according to 6 first-level indexes,the percentage of each index is the first-level index weight (Q) 1 -Q 6 ) As shown in table 1;
TABLE 1 Primary index and weight for leakage failure probability
(2) Establishing a secondary index, weight, comment and scoring of the possibility of the pipeline leakage, wherein the secondary index, weight, comment and scoring are specifically shown in a table 2;
TABLE 2 leakage failure probability secondary indicators, weights and comments
(3) Establishing a pipeline leakage result index, a weight, a comment and a score, wherein the result index, the weight, the comment and the score are specifically shown in a table 3;
TABLE 3 leakage failure outcome index, weight, and comment
(2) Defining failure possibility, failure result and leakage risk calculation method;
risk of leakage r=p×c;
results of failure c=0.5×c 1 +0.5*C 2 ；
Failure probability p=q 1 *P 1 +Q 2 *P 2 +Q 3 *P 3 +Q 4 *P 4 +Q 5 *P 5 +Q 6 *P 6 ；
Wherein,,
P 1 ＝0.1*P 11 +0.1*P 12 +0.3*P 13 +0.3*P 14 +0.2*P 15 ；
P 2 ＝0.8*P 21 +0.1*P 22 +0.1*P 23 ；
P 3 ＝0.25*P 31 +0.25*P 32 +0.25*P 33 +0.25*P 34 ；
P 4 ＝0.2*P 41 +0.6*P 42 +0.1*P 43 +0.05*P 44 +0.05*P 45 ；
P 5 ＝0.6*P 51 +0.2*P 52 +0.2*P 53 ；
P 6 ＝0.6*P 61 +0.2*P 62 +0.2*P 63 。
(3) Defining a risk level, and dividing pipeline leakage failure into high risk, medium risk and low risk;
and selecting typical pipe section scoring according to the managed pipeline, and returning high, medium and low risk grading scores.
(4) Pipeline on-site investigation, data acquisition and pipe section division are implemented according to DB 61/T1389 polyethylene pipeline risk evaluation technical Specification for town gas, and data required by division in tables 2 and 3 are collected.
(5) Checking key positions;
pipe sections where there may be intersections, parallel, crossing of closed spaces caused by pipelines, rivers, railways, highways, ditches, etc. are directly evaluated as high risk pipe sections.
(6) Evaluating the risk of pipe leakage;
and (3) calculating and grading leakage failure risks of the gas pipeline pipe section which is checked in the step (5) by using the methods established in the steps (1) - (3), and giving out high, medium and low risks of pipe section failure.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
according to the invention, the leakage high risk point of the in-service town gas pipeline can be effectively identified, the leakage failure risk level is determined, and advice is provided for safe operation and maintenance of the town gas pipeline.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of risk assessment of town gas pipe leakage;
FIG. 2 is a historical leakage failure statistics for town gas pipes.
Detailed Description
The principles and features of the present invention are described below with reference to fig. 1, but the examples are provided for illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
The town gas pipeline managed by a certain gas company has the pipe material of PE80, the operating pressure of 0.4MPa and the length of 1.2km, and is an independent pipe section without pipe diameter change and pipe intersection. The leakage risk evaluation is carried out on the pipeline, and the implementation method of the invention comprises the following steps:
step one: and establishing a first-level index and a weight of the possibility of pipeline leakage.
(1) The historical leakage risk events of the gas company are classified and counted according to the damage, corrosion and aging of a third party, geological disasters, inherent harm of a pipeline, leakage of a pressure regulating box and leakage of a valve well, wherein the percentage of the leakage risk events caused by the geological disasters accounts for 37% of the leakage event proportion, the leakage of the pressure regulating box accounts for 20% of the leakage event proportion, the leakage risk events caused by the corrosion and aging account for 19% of the leakage event proportion, the leakage risk events caused by the inherent harm of the pipeline accounts for 13% of the leakage event proportion, the leakage of the valve well accounts for 10% of the leakage event proportion, the leakage risk events caused by the damage of the third party accounts for 1% of the leakage event proportion, and the first-level index weight (Q) is obtained 1 -Q 6 ) As shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 Primary index and weight for leakage failure probability
(2) The secondary indicators, weights, comments and scores of the pipe leakage probability are established and are specifically shown in table 2.
(3) The pipeline leakage result index, weight, comment and scoring are established and are shown in table 3.
Step two: failure likelihood, failure outcome, and leakage risk calculation method are defined.
Risk of leakage r=p×c
Results of failure c=0.5×c 1 +0.5*C 2
Probability of failure p=0.01×p 1 +0.19*P 2 +0.37*P 3 +0.13*P 4 +0.2*P 5 +0.1*P 6 ；
Wherein,,
P 1 ＝0.1*P 11 +0.1*P 12 +0.3*P 13 +0.3*P 14 +0.2*P 15
P 2 ＝0.8*P 21 +0.1*P 22 +0.1*P 23
P 3 ＝0.25*P 31 +0.25*P 32 +0.25*P 33 +0.25*P 34
P 4 ＝0.2*P 41 +0.6*P 42 +0.1*P 43 +0.05*P 44 +0.05*P 45
P 5 ＝0.6*P 51 +0.2*P 52 +0.2*P 53
P 6 ＝0.6*P 61 +0.2*P 62 +0.2*P 63
step three: the risk level is defined to classify the pipeline leakage failure into high, medium and low risks.
Three typical pipe sections of the pipeline under the control of the company, namely good, medium and poor pipe sections, are selected as marker post pipe sections, and the high, medium and low risk grading scores are returned to obtain the following grading:
r.gtoreq.100 is a low risk, R.gtoreq.50 and <100 is a medium risk, and R <50 is a high risk.
Step four: pipeline on-site investigation, data acquisition and pipeline section division.
The tube sections are independent tube sections, have a short distance, are divided into the same tube sections, and collect the data required for the scores of tables 5 and 6.
Step five: critical location auditing
The pipe section without the pipeline, river, railway, highway, ditch and the like crossing and parallel crossing the closed space is carried out for the next step.
Step six: and (5) evaluating the risk of pipeline leakage. Scoring the pipe section for the likelihood of leakage failure and the failure outcome using the methods established in steps one through three, as shown in tables 5 and 6:
TABLE 5 leakage failure probability secondary indicators, weights and comments
TABLE 6 leakage failure outcome index, weight and comment
The leakage failure risk calculation process is as follows:
P 1 ＝0.1*90+0.1*60+0.3*90+0.3*30+0.2*90＝69
P 2 ＝0.8*90+0.1*90+0.1*60＝87
P 3 ＝0.25*90+0.25*60+0.25*60+0.25*60＝67.5
P 4 ＝0.2*60+0.6*60+0.1*90+0.05*90+0.05*90＝66
P 5 ＝0.6*60+0.2*30+0.2*30＝48
P 6 ＝0.6*60+0.2*90+0.2*30＝60
failure probability
P＝0.01*P 1 +0.19*P 2 +0.37*P 3 +0.13*P 4 +0.2*P 5 +0.1*P 6 ＝0.01*69+0.19*87+0.37*67.5+0.13*66+0.2*48+0.1*60＝66.375
Failure outcome c=0.5×1+0.5×1=1
Risk of leakage r=p×c=66.375×1= 66.375
R is greater than or equal to 50 and <100 is a medium risk, so the risk of the pipe section is classified as a medium risk.
The foregoing is illustrative of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting thereof, but rather, the present invention is to be construed as limited to the appended claims.
The principles and embodiments of the present invention have been described herein with reference to specific examples, the description of which is intended only to facilitate an understanding of the method of the present invention and its core ideas. The foregoing is merely illustrative of the preferred embodiments of this invention, and it is noted that there is objectively no limit to the specific structure disclosed herein, since numerous modifications, adaptations and variations can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the principles of the invention, and the above-described features can be combined in any suitable manner; such modifications, variations and combinations, or the direct application of the inventive concepts and aspects to other applications without modification, are contemplated as falling within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. A town gas pipe leakage risk assessment method is characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
step one: establishing a pipeline leakage possibility and failure result index system and weights, wherein the pipeline leakage possibility and failure result index system comprises the steps of establishing a first-level index and weight of the pipeline leakage possibility, establishing a second-level index, weight, comment and scoring of the pipeline leakage possibility, and establishing a second-level index, weight, comment and scoring of the pipeline leakage result index;
step two: defining failure possibility, failure result and leakage risk calculation method;
risk of leakage r=p×c;
results of failure c=0.5×c 1 +0.5*C 2； ；
Failure probability p=q 1 *P 1 +Q 2 *P 2 +Q 3 *P 3 +Q 4 *P 4 +Q 5 *P 5 +Q 6 *P 6 ；
Wherein,,
P 1 ＝0.1*P 11 +0.1*P 12 +0.3*P 13 +0.3*P 14 +0.2*P 15 ；
P 2 ＝0.8*P 21 +0.1*P 22 +0.1*P 23 ；
P 3 ＝0.25*P 31 +0.25*P 32 +0.25*P 33 +0.25*P 34 ；
P 4 ＝0.2*P 41 +0.6*P 42 +0.1*P 43 +0.05*P 44 +0.05*P 45 ；
P 5 ＝0.6*P 51 +0.2*P 52 +0.2*P 53 ；
P 6 ＝0.6*P 61 +0.2*P 62 +0.2*P 63 ；
step three: defining risk grades, dividing pipeline leakage failure into high risk, medium risk and low risk, selecting typical pipeline sections for scoring according to the managed pipelines, and returning high risk grading scores, medium risk grading scores and low risk grading scores;
step four: performing pipeline on-site investigation, data acquisition and pipeline section division, implementing according to DB 61/T1389 polyethylene pipeline risk evaluation technical Specification for town gas, and collecting data required by division;
step five: the key position is checked, and the pipe section which possibly has a closed space caused by crossing, paralleling and crossing of pipelines, rivers, railways, highways, ditches and the like is directly evaluated as a high-risk pipe section;
step six: and (3) evaluating the risk of leakage of the pipeline, and calculating and grading the risk of leakage failure of the gas pipeline section which is inspected in the step five by using the method established in the step one to the step three, so as to give high, medium and low risks of failure of the pipeline section.
2. The town gas pipe leakage risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein: the first level indexes of the leakage risk of the gas pipeline in the first step comprise 6 first level indexes (P) of third party damage, corrosion and aging, geological disasters, inherent harm of the pipeline, leakage of a pressure regulating box and leakage of a valve well 1 -P 6 ) Wherein, according to historical risk events of gas companies, the gas company is controlled according to 6 first-level indexes (P 1 -P 6 ) The classification statistics and weight setting are carried out, and the specific setting is as follows: third partyDestruction P 1 Weight of (1) is Q 1 Corrosion and aging P 2 Weight of (1) is Q 2 Geological disaster P 3 Weight of (1) is Q 3 Intrinsic hazard P of pipeline 4 Weight of (1) is Q 4 Pressure regulating tank leakage P 5 Weight of (1) is Q 5 Valve well leakage P 6 Weight of (1) is Q 6 。
3. The town gas pipe leakage risk assessment method of claim 2, wherein: third party construction damage P 1 And also includes the burial depth P 11 Ground mark P 12 Inspection P for line inspection 13 Leak check P 14 And the activity level P above the pipeline 15 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein the depth of burial P 11 The weight is 0.1, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and poor (30 points); ground sign P 12 The weight of the weight is 0.1, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and poor (30 points); inspection P 13 The weight of the weight is 0.3, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and poor (30 points); leak check P 14 The weight of the weight is 0.3, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and poor (30 points); activity level P above the pipeline 15 The weight of the weight is 0.2, and the comments are classified into low (90 points), medium (60 points) and high (30 points).
4. The town gas pipe leakage risk assessment method of claim 2, wherein: corrosion and ageing P 2 And also includes pipeline and adapter corrosion P 21 An over-temperature or sewage environment P 22 Length of service P 23 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein the pipe and the adapter corrode P 21 The weight is 0.8, and the comments and scores are low (90 points), medium (60 points) and high (30 points); super-temperature or sewage environment P 22 The weight is 0.1, and the comments and scores are low (90 points), medium (60 points) and high (30 points); length of service P 23 The weight is 0.1, and the comments and scores are short (90 minutes), medium (60 minutes) and long (30 minutes).
5. A town gas pipe leakage risk as claimed in claim 2An evaluation method, characterized in that: geological disaster P 3 And also comprises topography P 31 Piping pattern P 32 Terrain gradient P 33 And geological disaster condition P of distribution area 34 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein the topography and topography P 31 The weight is 0.25, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and bad (30 points); pipeline laying pattern P 32 The weight is 0.25, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and bad (30 points); terrain gradient P 33 The weight is 0.25, and the comments and scores are small (90 minutes), medium (60 minutes) and large (30 minutes); geological disaster condition P of distribution area 34 The weight is 0.25, and the comments and scores are less (90 points), medium (60 points) and more (30 points).
6. The town gas pipe leakage risk assessment method of claim 2, wherein: intrinsic hazard P of pipeline 4 And also comprises the pipe quality P 41 Welding quality P 42 Pressure-occupying clearance condition P 43 Plant P with deep root 44 And bioerosion P 45 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein the pipe quality P 41 The proportion is 0.2, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and poor (30 points); welding quality P 42 The proportion is 0.6, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and poor (30 points); pressure-occupying and clear distance condition P 43 The proportion is 0.1, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and poor (30 points); deep root plant P 44 The proportion of the Chinese character is 0.05, and the comments and scores are low (90 score), medium (60 score) and high (30 score); bioerosion P 45 The proportion is 0.05, and the comments are classified as low (90 points), medium (60 points) and high (30 points).
7. The town gas pipe leakage risk assessment method of claim 2, wherein: pressure regulating tank leakage P 5 And also includes valve and pipe fitting perfect condition P 51 Accessories and protection case P 52 Leakage monitoring test P 53 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein the valve and the pipe are in good condition P 51 The proportion is 0.6, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and poor (30 points); accessories and protectionCondition P 52 The proportion is 0.2, the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points), poor (30 points), and the leakage monitoring and detecting P 53 The proportion is 0.2, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and poor (30 points).
8. The town gas pipe leakage risk assessment method of claim 2, wherein: valve well leakage P 6 And also includes valve integrity P 61 Well body and sand filling condition P 62 Leakage monitoring test P 63 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein valve is in good condition P 61 The proportion is 0.6, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and poor (30 points); well body and sand filling condition P 62 The proportion is 0.2, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and poor (30 points); leakage monitoring test P 63 The proportion is 0.2, and the comments and scores are good (90 points), medium (60 points) and poor (30 points).
9. The town gas pipe leakage risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein: the indexes of the leakage result of the pipeline in the first step comprise population density C 1 And pipeline pressure rating C 2 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein the method comprises the steps of
Population density C 1 The weight is 0.5, and the comments and scores are low (2 points), medium (1 point) and high (0.5 point); pipeline pressure rating C 2 The weight is 0.5, and the comments are scored as low (2 points), medium (1 point) and high (0.5 point).
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| CN117764374A (en) * | 2023-11-15 | 2024-03-26 | 北京市燃气集团有限责任公司 | Multi-factor coupled gas pipeline hidden danger identification and risk assessment method and device |
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