CN116227649A - Shipping planning method and system based on shipping price - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of information data, and provides a shipping planning method and system based on shipping price. The method comprises the steps of obtaining route data and cargo transportation requirements; based on the route data, a container sea-going price adjustment model is adopted to obtain the sea-going price index change rate; obtaining the sea price change rate according to the sea price index change rate, and further adjusting the sea price; based on the route data, the sea price, and the cargo transportation demand, a shipping plan is predicted. The invention can accurately predict the sea price, further determine sea planning and ensure the execution reliability of the international EPC project logistics contract.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of information data, and particularly relates to a shipping planning method and system based on a shipping price.
Background
The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present disclosure and may not necessarily constitute prior art.
Under the conditions of international trade compliance and insufficient shipping capacity caused by epidemic situation, ocean shipping market is always in a dynamic state since 2020, shipping trade is greatly impacted, and shipping turnover times of container ship are reduced.
If reasonable prediction and analysis can be carried out on sea price fluctuation, a reasonable price adjustment mechanism is made for the fluctuation range of sea price of each route according to the change of the freight price index, the method is very helpful for enterprises or researchers to comprehensively grasp sea price change rules, further deducing what influence the price change can have on sea industry and related industries, so as to predict shipping planning, ensure the reliability of execution of international EPC project logistics contract, reduce industry default rate and improve the execution efficiency of international sea transportation organization.
The existing sea price related prediction model is used for predicting the freight price index almost, and the sea price is rarely and directly predicted. The existing marine price prediction method lacks certain intuitiveness and accuracy, so that the shipping planning cannot be accurately determined.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems in the background technology, the invention provides a shipping planning method and a shipping planning system based on a shipping price, which can accurately predict the shipping price, further determine shipping planning and ensure the execution reliability of an international EPC project logistics contract.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a first aspect of the invention provides a shipping planning method based on shipping prices.
A shipping planning method based on shipping prices, comprising:
acquiring route data and cargo transportation requirements;
based on the route data, a container sea-going price adjustment model is adopted to obtain the sea-going price index change rate; obtaining the sea price change rate according to the sea price index change rate, and further adjusting the sea price;
based on the route data, the sea price, and the cargo transportation demand, a shipping plan is predicted.
Further, the route data includes: shipping mileage, port traffic, fuel price, fuel quantity, and port utility fees.
Further, the cargo transportation demand includes cargo types, cargo volume, ship demand, dead date/quick dispatch fee, port total stop, port loading site, and port unloading site.
Further, the shipping plan includes: the method comprises the steps of net return of voyage, marginal return, operation margin return, operation price when the voyage return is zero, ton margin return, foreign trade rent, closed-loop cargo harbor, closed-loop unloading harbor, closed-loop voyage mileage, total mileage after closed-loop, total voyage day, total berthing day and total voyage period.
Further, the container sea price adjustment model is as follows:
and carrying out hysteresis 1 week or hysteresis 2 weeks on the freight rate base period by taking the index base period as an independent variable, wherein the obtained regression coefficient is the price adjustment coefficient.
Further, before the container sea freight price adjustment model is adopted, the method further comprises the steps of processing the route data, discharging indexes obtained by time-frequency mismatch and data abnormality, and selecting indexes with the fitting goodness being larger than a set threshold value by comparing the sea freight price of the dependent variable with the fitting goodness of each preselected index;
further, the method further comprises, prior to adopting the container sea price adjustment model, preprocessing the route data, including: adjusting date and time data, processing outliers and missing values, merging categories of discrete variables, and adjusting measurement scales.
A second aspect of the invention provides a shipping planning system based on shipping prices.
A shipping planning system based on shipping prices, comprising:
a data acquisition module configured to: acquiring route data and cargo transportation requirements;
a freight rate prediction module configured to: based on the route data, a container sea-going price adjustment model is adopted to obtain the sea-going price index change rate; obtaining the sea price change rate according to the sea price index change rate, and further adjusting the sea price;
a shipping planning module configured to: based on the route data, the sea price, and the cargo transportation demand, a shipping plan is predicted.
A third aspect of the invention provides a shipping planning platform based on shipping prices.
A shipping planning platform based on shipping prices, comprising:
the client sends the cargo transportation demand to the server, receives the shipping plan sent by the server and displays the shipping plan on the client;
the server adopts a container sea price adjustment model according to the route data to obtain the sea price index change rate; obtaining the sea price change rate according to the sea price index change rate, and further adjusting the sea price; based on the route data and the sea price, in combination with the received cargo transportation demand, a shipping plan is predicted and the resulting shipping plan is sent to the client.
A fourth aspect of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium.
A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which when executed by a processor performs the steps of the marine price based shipping planning method of the first aspect described above.
A fifth aspect of the invention provides a computer device.
A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the steps in the marine price based shipping planning method of the first aspect described above when the program is executed.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention can accurately predict the sea price, further determine the shipping planning scheme, ensure the execution reliability of the international EPC project logistics contract, reduce the industry default rate and improve the execution efficiency of the international sea transportation organization.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the invention.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a shipping planning method based on shipping prices, shown in the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further described with reference to the drawings and examples.
It should be noted that the following detailed description is illustrative and is intended to provide further explanation of the invention. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs.
It is noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of exemplary embodiments according to the present invention. As used herein, the singular is also intended to include the plural unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, and furthermore, it is to be understood that the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising" when used in this specification are taken to specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, devices, components, and/or combinations thereof.
It is noted that the flowcharts and block diagrams in the figures illustrate the architecture, functionality, and operation of possible implementations of methods and systems according to various embodiments of the present disclosure. It should be noted that each block in the flowchart or block diagrams may represent a module, segment, or portion of code, which comprises one or more executable instructions for implementing the logical functions specified in the various embodiments. It should also be noted that, in some alternative implementations, the functions noted in the block may occur out of the order noted in the figures. For example, two blocks shown in succession may, in fact, be executed substantially concurrently, or the blocks may sometimes be executed in the reverse order, depending upon the functionality involved. It will also be noted that each block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by special purpose hardware-based systems which perform the specified functions or operations, or combinations of special purpose hardware and computer instructions.
Example 1
As shown in fig. 1, the present embodiment provides a shipping planning method based on a shipping price, and the present embodiment is exemplified by the method applied to a server, and it is understood that the method may also be applied to a terminal, and may also be applied to a system and a terminal, and implemented through interaction between the terminal and the server. The server can be an independent physical server, a server cluster or a distributed system formed by a plurality of physical servers, and can also be a cloud server for providing cloud services, cloud databases, cloud computing, cloud functions, cloud storage, network servers, cloud communication, middleware services, domain name services, security services CDNs, basic cloud computing services such as big data and artificial intelligent platforms and the like. The terminal may be, but is not limited to, a smart phone, a tablet computer, a notebook computer, a desktop computer, a smart speaker, a smart watch, etc. The terminal and the server may be directly or indirectly connected through wired or wireless communication, which is not limited herein. In this embodiment, the method includes the steps of:
a data acquisition module configured to: acquiring route data and cargo transportation requirements;
a freight rate prediction module configured to: based on the route data, a container sea-going price adjustment model is adopted to obtain the sea-going price index change rate; obtaining the sea price change rate according to the sea price index change rate, and further adjusting the sea price;
a shipping planning module configured to: based on the route data, the sea price, and the cargo transportation demand, a shipping plan is predicted.
The specific scheme of this embodiment can be realized with reference to the following:
s1: acquiring route data and cargo transportation requirements;
wherein the route data comprises: shipping mileage, port traffic, fuel price, fuel quantity, and port utility costs, and cargo transportation requirements include cargo type, cargo quantity, ship demand, hold/quick dispatch costs, port total stops, port loading sites, and port unloading sites. The shipping mileage, port traffic, fuel price, fuel amount, port use fee, dead time/speed charge, port total stop time, port loading place and port unloading place can be crawled on the network through crawlers.
S2: performing index selection, analyzing relevant factors influencing the change of the price of the route, such as route data indexes of fuel price, port traffic volume, container index and the like, removing indexes with unmatched time and frequency and poor data, and selecting corresponding indexes with the fitting goodness of greater than 0.98 by comparing the sea price of the dependent variable with the fitting goodness of each preselected index;
s3: acquiring original data;
s4: data processing is performed to eliminate factors affecting modeling. The preprocessing operation comprises the following steps: adjusting date and time data, processing outliers and missing values, merging categories of discrete variables, adjusting measurement scales, and the like;
s5: the general formula of freight rate prediction is obtained through time series regression after 1 week and 2 weeks, and is specifically as follows:
y＝ax
wherein,,
for the rate of change of freight rate, a is the price adjustment coefficient +.>
Is the index change rate, x 0 For the index base, i.e. the freight index of a course of the year to be studied, y 0 The shipping price adjustment model of the container can be obtained according to the freight price base quantity, namely the freight price of a certain route in a certain year to be researched, and is concretely as follows:
wherein, the index base period and the freight rate base period are as follows: selecting existing data of one year as a base period; carrying out hysteresis 1 week or hysteresis 2 weeks regression on the freight rate base period by taking the index base period as an independent variable, wherein the obtained regression coefficient is the price adjustment coefficient; index change rate: using the formula
And calculating, wherein x is an exponential predictive value.
S6: based on the route data, the sea price, and the cargo transportation demand, a shipping plan is predicted.
Wherein, based on the route data, the sea price and the cargo transportation demand, the scheme of predicting the shipping plan can be realized with reference to the prior art.
The shipping plans of the items may be adjusted based on the exponential variation. When the index changes from high to low, the business may adjust the shipping plans to save costs. When the index is higher, the sea price is higher, the shipping is more difficult, and small or no shipping can be performed to save the cost; when the index is reduced, the sea price is reduced, and the company can properly adjust the price of the logistics company and carry out mass shipment. The price adjustment range can be obtained by the invention.
Taking 20GP container freight rate from China to south America as an example, and taking 6591.67 of 1 month in 2021 as freight rate base period, 1577.20 is the index base period of the container freight rate of China export. When the index change falling range is not more than 15%, price adjustment is not carried out; when the index reduction range is 15% -30%, the freight rate is reduced by 15.98%; when the index reduction range is 30% -45%, the freight rate is reduced by 31.96%; when the index reduction range exceeds 45%, the freight rate is reduced by 47.95%. When the index changes from low to high, the enterprise can offer a price to the carrier's logistics company to ensure continued collaboration to ensure delivery supplies, thereby obtaining shipping plans. As above, when the rising range of the index change is not more than 15%, price adjustment is not carried out; when the index rising range is 15% -30%, the freight rate rises by 15.98%; when the index rising range is 30% -45%, the freight rate rises by 31.96%; when the index rise range exceeds 45%, the freight rate rises by 47.95%.
Sea freight rate is a key factor in regulating the state of the sea market, and is a lever that balances the relationship between transport capacity and transport demand. Under market economics, the configuration, adjustment and development of shipping resources is entirely dependent on the role of the shipping market and the pricing mechanism. Thus, sea freight rates may affect transportation route, point of time, etc. decisions.
The embodiment is suitable for academic research and commercial enterprises, and has certain guiding effects on researching global economy, making related policies and making enterprise decisions. The embodiment fills up the study blank in the current sea price prediction, and is a model for predicting sea price instead of sea price index. According to the embodiment, the change rate of the sea price can be obtained according to the change rate of the sea price index, further future sea price can be predicted, and the shipping planning can be predicted according to the sea price, so that compared with various models for predicting the sea price index in the past, the embodiment is more visual, certain accuracy is ensured, and the obtained shipping planning is more accurate.
In practical application, the embodiment can be used in the contract negotiation period and the contract execution period in the business level. Therefore, the embodiment not only can construct a fairer cooperation condition among the partners and strengthen the mutual trust degree of the partners, but also can ensure the execution reliability of the international EPC project logistics contract to a certain extent. Due to the flexibility of the embodiment in use, the price can be adjusted along with market, so that the contract execution is not influenced by fluctuation of the market price, and the situation that the logistics business is destroyed because the market price rises too fast can be avoided.
In addition to commercial use, the embodiment has a certain guiding function on policy establishment of related departments in the policy level; in the academic research level, the method has certain help for researching the development trend of the sea industry and related industries and the related policy effects. Meanwhile, the invention is suitable for marine price prediction of all airlines, so that the invention has a very wide application space and can be used for longitudinal and transverse comparison of different airlines or deeper research and the like.
Example two
The embodiment provides a shipping planning system based on a shipping price.
A shipping planning system based on shipping prices, comprising:
a data acquisition module configured to: acquiring route data and cargo transportation requirements;
a freight rate prediction module configured to: based on the route data, a container sea-going price adjustment model is adopted to obtain the sea-going price index change rate; obtaining the sea price change rate according to the sea price index change rate, and further adjusting the sea price;
a shipping planning module configured to: based on the route data, the sea price, and the cargo transportation demand, a shipping plan is predicted.
It should be noted that the data acquisition module, the freight rate prediction module, and the shipping planning module are the same as the examples and application scenarios implemented by the steps in the first embodiment, but are not limited to the disclosure of the first embodiment. It should be noted that the modules described above may be implemented as part of a system in a computer system, such as a set of computer-executable instructions.
Example III
The embodiment provides a shipping planning platform based on a shipping price.
A shipping planning platform based on shipping prices, comprising:
the client sends the cargo transportation demand to the server, receives the shipping plan sent by the server and displays the shipping plan on the client;
the server adopts a container sea price adjustment model according to the route data to obtain the sea price index change rate; obtaining the sea price change rate according to the sea price index change rate, and further adjusting the sea price; based on the route data and the sea price, in combination with the received cargo transportation demand, a shipping plan is predicted and the resulting shipping plan is sent to the client.
Example IV
The present embodiment provides a computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which when executed by a processor performs the steps in the marine price based shipping planning method as described in the above embodiment one.
Example five
The present embodiment provides a computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the steps in the marine price based shipping planning method as described in the above embodiment one when the program is executed.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of a hardware embodiment, a software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, magnetic disk storage, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that implementing all or part of the above-described methods in accordance with the embodiments may be accomplished by way of a computer program stored on a computer readable storage medium, which when executed may comprise the steps of the embodiments of the methods described above. The storage medium may be a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random access Memory (Random AccessMemory, RAM), or the like.
The above description is only of the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention, but various modifications and variations can be made to the present invention by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A shipping planning method based on shipping prices, comprising:
acquiring route data and cargo transportation requirements;
based on the route data, a container sea-going price adjustment model is adopted to obtain the sea-going price index change rate; obtaining the sea price change rate according to the sea price index change rate, and further adjusting the sea price;
based on the route data, the sea price, and the cargo transportation demand, a shipping plan is predicted.
2. A shipping planning method based on shipping prices as set forth in claim 1, wherein the route data includes: shipping mileage, port traffic, fuel price, fuel quantity, and port utility fees.
3. The shipping planning method based on shipping prices of claim 1, wherein the cargo transportation demands include cargo types, cargo volumes, ship demand, hold/quick fare, port total stops, port loading sites and port unloading sites.
4. A shipping programming method based on shipping prices as defined in claim 1, wherein the shipping programming includes: the method comprises the steps of net return of voyage, marginal return, operation margin return, operation price when the voyage return is zero, ton margin return, foreign trade rent, closed-loop cargo harbor, closed-loop unloading harbor, closed-loop voyage mileage, total mileage after closed-loop, total voyage day, total berthing day and total voyage period.
5. The shipping programming method based on shipping prices of claim 1, wherein the container shipping price adjustment model is:
and carrying out hysteresis 1 week or hysteresis 2 weeks on the freight rate base period by taking the index base period as an independent variable, wherein the obtained regression coefficient is the price adjustment coefficient.
6. The shipping planning method based on shipping price according to claim 1, characterized in that the method further comprises, before using the container shipping price adjustment model, processing the route data, discharging the indexes obtained by time-frequency mismatch and data anomaly, and selecting the index with the fitting goodness greater than the set threshold by comparing the dependent variable shipping price with each pre-selected index fitting goodness;
or, the method further comprises, before adopting the container sea transport price adjustment model, preprocessing the route data, including: adjusting date and time data, processing outliers and missing values, merging categories of discrete variables, and adjusting measurement scales.
7. A shipping planning system based on shipping prices, comprising:
a data acquisition module configured to: acquiring route data and cargo transportation requirements;
a freight rate prediction module configured to: based on the route data, a container sea-going price adjustment model is adopted to obtain the sea-going price index change rate; obtaining the sea price change rate according to the sea price index change rate, and further adjusting the sea price;
a shipping planning module configured to: based on the route data, the sea price, and the cargo transportation demand, a shipping plan is predicted.
8. A shipping programming platform based on shipping prices, comprising:
the client sends the cargo transportation demand to the server, receives the shipping plan sent by the server and displays the shipping plan on the client;
the server adopts a container sea price adjustment model according to the route data to obtain the sea price index change rate; obtaining the sea price change rate according to the sea price index change rate, and further adjusting the sea price; based on the route data and the sea price, in combination with the received cargo transportation demand, a shipping plan is predicted and the resulting shipping plan is sent to the client.
9. A computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which program, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of a marine price based shipping planning method as defined in any one of claims 1-6.
10. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps of the marine price based shipping planning method of any of claims 1-6 when the program is executed.
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| CN117829359A (en) * | 2023-12-29 | 2024-04-05 | 亿海蓝（北京）数据技术股份公司 | Shipping optimization method and system, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN117829359A (en) * | 2023-12-29 | 2024-04-05 | 亿海蓝（北京）数据技术股份公司 | Shipping optimization method and system, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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