CN116187743A - Risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project - Google Patents

Risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project Download PDF

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CN116187743A
CN116187743A CN202211564707.6A CN202211564707A CN116187743A CN 116187743 A CN116187743 A CN 116187743A CN 202211564707 A CN202211564707 A CN 202211564707A CN 116187743 A CN116187743 A CN 116187743A
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risk
power transmission
project
transformation project
construction
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Inventor
蒋理
巴林
张琦
高嵩
熊先亮
侯永良
朱冀涛
佟俊达
马洪波
利相霖
刘涛
汪明达
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STATE GRID LIAONING ECONOMIC TECHNIQUE INSTITUTE
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
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STATE GRID LIAONING ECONOMIC TECHNIQUE INSTITUTE
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
    • G06Q10/06393—Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/10—Office automation; Time management
    • G06Q10/103—Workflow collaboration or project management
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

The invention discloses a risk assessment method for field construction of a power transmission and transformation project, which comprises the following steps: constructing a judgment matrix aiming at a risk evaluation system by using an expert scoring method; calculating the evaluation index weight of the multi-factor risk, and constructing a multi-factor risk evaluation model of the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project; acquiring project data of a power transmission and transformation project construction site, collecting evaluation data by a questionnaire investigation method, and constructing a fuzzy judgment matrix; and (5) carrying out calculation on the judgment matrix and the fuzzy judgment matrix into the model to obtain risk assessment data. According to the invention, the judgment matrix is constructed based on expert scoring, the weight is obtained through calculation, and the overall evaluation result in project construction is obtained by combining the fuzzy judgment matrix obtained through questionnaire investigation, so that basis and direction are provided for overall evaluation analysis of risks existing in engineering construction sites, and the strategy adjustment of power transmission and transformation project personnel in time is facilitated for the site construction conditions of the project.

Description

Risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power engineering, in particular to a risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation engineering projects.
Background
The city construction is not separated from the support of electric power, the power transmission and transformation project is used as an important component of the electric power system, and the excellent power transmission and transformation project can improve the life quality of urban residents. Particularly, under the background that rural population flows to cities and cities are actively expanded, the safe and efficient power transmission and transformation engineering is particularly important. The common operation modes of power transmission and transformation engineering are complex and mostly relate to high-risk operation, and higher requirements are put forward on comprehensive management and control capability, on-site supervision and inspection capability and emergency management capability of the operation process. The construction technology of the power transmission and transformation project has high requirements, long period, huge investment and large territory, can span multiple provinces and multiple cities, faces unexpected natural environment and geographical geological conditions, and also relates to participation of multiple units, has great difficulty in personnel organization management and project construction coordination, combines the expansion of the general in recent years, the rising of land price and the price of material equipment required by the project construction, and exceeds project budget, and the factors are interwoven together to bring a lot of uncertainty to the construction of the power transmission and transformation project, so that project risk is increased.
Disclosure of Invention
This section is intended to outline some aspects of embodiments of the invention and to briefly introduce some preferred embodiments. Some simplifications or omissions may be made in this section as well as in the description summary and in the title of the application, to avoid obscuring the purpose of this section, the description summary and the title of the invention, which should not be used to limit the scope of the invention.
The present invention has been made in view of the above-described problems occurring in the prior art.
Therefore, the invention provides a risk assessment method for field construction of a power transmission and transformation project, which solves the problem that the overall risk of the existing power transmission and transformation project cannot be controlled.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
screening risk factors, classifying the risk factors, and constructing a risk evaluation system of multiple factors of on-site construction of a power transmission and transformation project;
constructing a judgment matrix aiming at a risk evaluation system by using an expert scoring method;
calculating the evaluation index weight of the multi-factor risk, and constructing a multi-factor risk evaluation model of the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project;
acquiring project data of a power transmission and transformation project construction site, collecting evaluation data by a questionnaire investigation method, and constructing a fuzzy judgment matrix;
and carrying the judgment matrix and the fuzzy judgment matrix into a model for calculation to obtain risk assessment data of the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project.
As a preferable scheme of the risk assessment method for the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project, the invention comprises the following steps: screening risk factors, classifying the risk factors, and constructing a risk evaluation system of the site construction multi-factor of the power transmission and transformation project, wherein the known risk factors of the site construction of the power transmission and transformation project are screened, classified, a risk list containing 22 factors is determined, 22 risk indexes are obtained, the 22 risk factors are used as secondary indexes, the classification is carried out according to risk sources, the 22 secondary indexes are classified into 5 primary indexes, and finally, the risk evaluation system of the site construction multi-factor of the power transmission and transformation project comprising 5 primary risk indexes and 22 secondary risk indexes is established.
As a preferable scheme of the risk assessment method for the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project, the invention comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of screening risk factors, classifying the risk factors, and constructing a risk evaluation system of on-site construction multi-factor of a power transmission and transformation project, wherein 22 risk indexes comprise 22 factors such as power policy change, constraint legal regulations, administrative intervention, on-site natural conditions, blocked substation sign disassembly, environment evaluation risk, project approval, incorrect power supply scheme selection, load prediction error, design technical risk, construction technical risk, power enterprise demand change, interest rate risk, price change, organization management risk, bidding risk, project progress risk, project quality risk, construction cost exceeding, contract risk, material acquisition risk and the like.
As a preferable scheme of the risk assessment method for the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project, the invention comprises the following steps: in the risk evaluation system for constructing the field construction multifactor of the power transmission and transformation project, 22 factors can be divided into five categories according to risk sources, namely environmental risk, social risk, technical risk, economic risk and project management risk. Wherein the environmental risk includes: the power policy changes, the constraint legal regulations, the administrative intervention, the on-site natural conditions and the blocked substation symptom disassembly; social risks include: environmental assessment risk, project approval; the technical risks include: the power supply scheme is incorrectly selected, the load prediction is incorrect, the technical risk is designed, and the technical risk is constructed; economic risks include: the demand of the power enterprises changes, the interest rate risk and the price change; the project management risk includes: management risk, bidding risk, engineering progress risk, engineering quality risk, construction cost exceeding, contract risk and material buying risk.
As a preferable scheme of the risk assessment method for the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project, the invention comprises the following steps: the method for calculating the evaluation index weight of the multi-factor risk and constructing the multi-factor risk evaluation model of the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project further comprises the following steps:
calculating a weight vector by using a square root method, namely a geometric mean method;
calculating the maximum characteristic root of the judgment matrix for consistency test;
when consistency test is carried out, calculating a consistency index C.I., introducing an average random consistency index R.I, checking whether the weights have logic contradiction by using a consistency proportion C.R, when C.R. <0.1, indicating that the matrix passes the consistency test, and if the matrix does not pass the consistency test, returning to use an expert scoring method, and constructing a judgment matrix aiming at a risk evaluation system.
As a preferable scheme of the risk assessment method for the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project, the invention comprises the following steps: the method for calculating the weight vector by using the root method, namely the geometric mean method, further comprises the following steps:
multiplying the elements of the rows of the decision matrix, thereby yielding a first vector M expressed as:
Figure BDA0003985761440000031
each component in M is calculated to the power of n, and the vector W is expressed as:
Figure BDA0003985761440000032
normalizing W to obtain a vector W 0 ，W 0 Namely, the weight vector is expressed as:
Figure BDA0003985761440000033
as a preferable scheme of the risk assessment method for the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project, the invention comprises the following steps: the maximum characteristic root lambda max of the judgment matrix is calculated and used for consistency test, and the maximum characteristic root is expressed as:
Figure BDA0003985761440000034
as a preferable scheme of the risk assessment method for the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project, the invention comprises the following steps: the consistency test is carried out, a consistency index C.I. is calculated, an average random consistency index R.I is introduced, whether the consistency proportion C.R. test weight has logic contradiction or not is judged, when the C.R. is <0.1, the matrix passes the consistency test, if the matrix does not pass the consistency test, an expert scoring method is returned, and a judgment matrix is constructed aiming at a risk evaluation system; the consistency check is expressed as:
Figure BDA0003985761440000035
Figure BDA0003985761440000036
as a preferable scheme of the risk assessment method for the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project, the invention comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of acquiring project data of a power transmission and transformation project construction site, collecting evaluation data by a questionnaire investigation method, constructing a fuzzy judgment matrix, and further comprising the following steps:
establishing a transfusionThe risk comment set of the transformer project, i.e., t= { T1, T2, T3, T4, T5} = { very low risk, lower risk, medium risk, higher risk, very high risk }. Assigning corresponding scores as parameter column vectors: vi= { v1=10, v2=30, v3=50, v4=70, v5=90 } T ；
As a preferable scheme of the risk assessment method for the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project, the invention comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of acquiring project data of a power transmission and transformation project construction site, collecting evaluation data by a questionnaire investigation method, constructing a fuzzy judgment matrix, and further comprising the following steps:
and collecting evaluation data of the acquired project data of the power transmission and transformation project by adopting a questionnaire method, wherein the calculated fuzzy evaluation matrix R is expressed as follows:
Figure BDA0003985761440000041
the fuzzy evaluation matrix is multiplied by the weight, and the obtained fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector E is expressed as:
Figure BDA0003985761440000042
the total score S of the evaluation results is calculated as:
S＝E·V
compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: according to the invention, based on an evaluation system of 22 risk indexes, the risk factors of the project site of the power transmission and transformation project are identified and classified by combining expert scoring, the risk index evaluation system is established, meanwhile, an evaluation model is established, the project is subjected to risk evaluation, and further, the overall evaluation result of the project in construction is obtained, the basis and the direction are provided for overall evaluation analysis of the risks existing in the project construction site, and the project personnel of the power transmission and transformation project can timely carry out strategy adjustment aiming at the site construction condition of the project.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings that are needed in the description of the embodiments will be briefly described below, it being obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and that other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art. Wherein:
fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a risk assessment method for field construction of a power transmission and transformation project according to an embodiment of the present invention;
Detailed Description
So that the manner in which the above recited objects, features and advantages of the present invention can be understood in detail, a more particular description of the invention, briefly summarized above, may be had by reference to the embodiments, some of which are illustrated in the appended drawings. All other embodiments, which can be made by one of ordinary skill in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without making any inventive effort, shall fall within the scope of the present invention.
In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention, but the present invention may be practiced in other ways other than those described herein, and persons skilled in the art will readily appreciate that the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.
Further, reference herein to "one embodiment" or "an embodiment" means that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic can be included in at least one implementation of the invention. The appearances of the phrase "in one embodiment" in various places in the specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment, nor are separate or alternative embodiments mutually exclusive of other embodiments.
While the embodiments of the present invention have been illustrated and described in detail in the drawings, the cross-sectional view of the device structure is not to scale in the general sense for ease of illustration, and the drawings are merely exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the scope of the invention. In addition, the three-dimensional dimensions of length, width and depth should be included in actual fabrication.
Also in the description of the present invention, it should be noted that the orientation or positional relationship indicated by the terms "upper, lower, inner and outer", etc. are based on the orientation or positional relationship shown in the drawings, are merely for convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the apparatus or elements referred to must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation, and thus should not be construed as limiting the present invention. Furthermore, the terms "first, second, or third" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance.
The terms "mounted, connected, and coupled" should be construed broadly in this disclosure unless otherwise specifically indicated and defined, such as: can be fixed connection, detachable connection or integral connection; it may also be a mechanical connection, an electrical connection, or a direct connection, or may be indirectly connected through an intermediate medium, or may be a communication between two elements. The specific meaning of the above terms in the present invention will be understood in specific cases by those of ordinary skill in the art.
Example 1
Referring to fig. 1, for one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a risk assessment method for field construction of a power transmission and transformation project, including:
s1: screening risk factors, classifying the risk factors, and constructing a risk evaluation system of multiple factors of on-site construction of a power transmission and transformation project;
it should be noted that, the risk factors herein are preferred combinations obtained after testing according to actual occurrence frequency, deleting part of risk factors with lower occurrence frequency, and the like, and classifying the risk factors according to sources of the risk factors, so as to finally form a multi-factor risk evaluation system for site construction, wherein the multi-factor risk evaluation system comprises 5 first-class indexes and 22 second-class risk indexes.
Further, screening and classifying the known on-site construction risk factors of the power transmission and transformation project, determining a risk list containing 22 factors, obtaining 22 risk indexes, classifying the 22 risk factors as secondary indexes according to risk sources, classifying the 22 secondary indexes into 5 primary indexes, and finally establishing a multi-factor risk evaluation system for on-site construction of the power transmission and transformation project, wherein the multi-factor risk evaluation system comprises 5 primary risk indexes and 22 secondary risk indexes.
Further, the 22 risk indexes include 22 factors such as power policy change, constraint legal regulations, administrative intervention, on-site natural conditions, blocked substation sign disassembly, environmental evaluation risk, project approval, incorrect power supply scheme selection, incorrect load prediction, design technology risk, construction technology risk, power enterprise demand change, interest rate risk, price change, organization management risk, bidding risk, engineering progress risk, engineering quality risk, construction cost exceeding, contract risk, material buying risk and the like.
These 22 factors can be classified into five major categories according to risk sources, namely, environmental risk, social risk, technical risk, economic risk, and project management risk. Wherein the environmental risk includes: the power policy changes, the constraint legal regulations, the administrative intervention, the on-site natural conditions and the blocked substation symptom disassembly; social risks include: environmental assessment risk, project approval; the technical risks include: the power supply scheme is incorrectly selected, the load prediction is incorrect, the technical risk is designed, and the technical risk is constructed; economic risks include: the demand of the power enterprises changes, the interest rate risk and the price change; the project management risk includes: management risk, bidding risk, engineering progress risk, engineering quality risk, construction cost exceeding, contract risk and material buying risk.
S2: constructing a judgment matrix aiming at a risk evaluation system by using an expert scoring method;
s3: calculating the evaluation index weight of the multi-factor risk, and constructing a multi-factor risk evaluation model of the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project;
s31: the weight vector is calculated by using a method root method, namely a geometric mean method, and the calculating step comprises the following steps:
multiplying the elements of each row of the judgment matrix to obtain a first vector M, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003985761440000061
each component in M is calculated to the power of n to obtain a vector W, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003985761440000071
normalizing W to obtain a vector W 0 ，W 0 Namely, the weight vector is calculated according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003985761440000072
s32: calculating the maximum characteristic root lambda of the judgment matrix max The method is used for consistency test, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003985761440000073
s33: when the consistency check is performed, a consistency index c.i. is calculated, an average random consistency index R.I is introduced, whether the weights are logically contradictory is checked by a consistency ratio c.r. and when c.r. <0.1, the matrix passes the consistency check, and if the matrix does not pass the consistency check, the process returns to step S2. The consistency check is expressed as:
Figure BDA0003985761440000074
Figure BDA0003985761440000075
note that the value of R.I is fixed, selected according to the order, and c.r. is obtained by c.i. and R.I as shown in table 1, and whether or not the consistency test is passed is judged according to c.r. < 0.1.
TABLE 1 consistency check RI values
Figure BDA0003985761440000076
S4: acquiring project data of a power transmission and transformation project construction site, collecting evaluation data by a questionnaire investigation method, and constructing a fuzzy judgment matrix;
it should be noted that the questionnaire has to have a relevant experience when constructing the fuzzy evaluation matrix, and the number of people at each job post should be balanced and reasonable.
S5: carrying the judgment matrix and the fuzzy judgment matrix into a model for calculation to obtain risk assessment data of field construction of the power transmission and transformation project;
s51: and (3) establishing a risk comment set of the power transmission and transformation project, namely T= { T1, T2, T3, T4, T5} = { very low risk, lower risk, medium risk, higher risk and very high risk }. Assigning corresponding scores as parameter column vectors: vi= { v1=10, v2=30, v3=50, v4=70, v5=90 } T ；
S52: and collecting evaluation data of the acquired project data of the power transmission and transformation project by adopting a questionnaire method, wherein the calculated fuzzy evaluation matrix R is expressed as follows:
Figure BDA0003985761440000081
s53: the fuzzy evaluation matrix is multiplied by the weight, and the obtained fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector E is expressed as:
Figure BDA0003985761440000082
s54: the total score S of the evaluation results is calculated as:
S＝E·V
example 2
Referring to tables 2-4, for one embodiment of the present invention, a risk assessment method for field construction of a power transmission and transformation project is provided, in order to verify the effectiveness of the present invention, actual data collection and calculation are performed on a certain power transmission and transformation project, the weight of an evaluation index system obtained by expert scoring is shown in table 2, the statistics of the collected risk level questionnaire difference adjustment population is shown in table 3, and the obtained risk level evaluation score is shown in table 4.
Table 2: weighting table of risk evaluation index system for field construction project of power transmission and transformation project in certain area
Figure BDA0003985761440000083
Table 3: risk level questionnaire checking people counting table
Figure BDA0003985761440000091
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TABLE 4 evaluation score condition table for risk level of field construction project of power transmission and transformation project in certain area
Figure BDA0003985761440000101
The score shows that the possibility that the engineering project is the medium risk is higher, the environmental risk of the project is lower, the social risk of the project belongs to the higher risk, the technical risk belongs to the higher risk project, the economic risk belongs to the lower risk, and the project management risk belongs to the medium risk.
It should be noted that the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the technical solution of the present invention may be modified or substituted without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solution of the present invention, which is intended to be covered in the scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. The risk assessment method for the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
screening risk factors, classifying the risk factors, and constructing a risk evaluation system of multiple factors of on-site construction of a power transmission and transformation project;
constructing a judgment matrix aiming at a risk evaluation system by using an expert scoring method;
calculating the evaluation index weight of the multi-factor risk, and constructing a multi-factor risk evaluation model of the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project;
acquiring project data of a power transmission and transformation project construction site, collecting evaluation data by a questionnaire investigation method, and constructing a fuzzy judgment matrix;
and carrying the judgment matrix and the fuzzy judgment matrix into a model for calculation to obtain risk assessment data of the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project.
2. The risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project according to claim 1, wherein: screening risk factors, classifying the risk factors, and constructing a risk evaluation system of the site construction multi-factor of the power transmission and transformation project, wherein the known risk factors of the site construction of the power transmission and transformation project are screened, classified, a risk list containing 22 factors is determined, 22 risk indexes are obtained, the 22 risk factors are used as secondary indexes, the classification is carried out according to risk sources, the 22 secondary indexes are classified into 5 primary indexes, and finally, the risk evaluation system of the site construction multi-factor of the power transmission and transformation project comprising 5 primary risk indexes and 22 secondary risk indexes is established.
3. The risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: the method comprises the steps of screening risk factors, classifying the risk factors, and constructing a risk evaluation system of on-site construction multi-factor of a power transmission and transformation project, wherein 22 risk indexes comprise 22 factors such as power policy change, constraint legal regulations, administrative intervention, on-site natural conditions, blocked substation sign disassembly, environment evaluation risk, project approval, incorrect power supply scheme selection, load prediction error, design technical risk, construction technical risk, power enterprise demand change, interest rate risk, price change, organization management risk, bidding risk, project progress risk, project quality risk, construction cost exceeding, contract risk, material acquisition risk and the like.
4. The risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project according to claim 3, wherein: in the risk evaluation system for constructing the field construction multifactor of the power transmission and transformation project, 22 factors can be divided into five categories according to risk sources, namely environmental risk, social risk, technical risk, economic risk and project management risk. Wherein the environmental risk includes: the power policy changes, the constraint legal regulations, the administrative intervention, the on-site natural conditions and the blocked substation symptom disassembly; social risks include: environmental assessment risk, project approval; the technical risks include: the power supply scheme is incorrectly selected, the load prediction is incorrect, the technical risk is designed, and the technical risk is constructed; economic risks include: the demand of the power enterprises changes, the interest rate risk and the price change; the project management risk includes: management risk, bidding risk, engineering progress risk, engineering quality risk, construction cost exceeding, contract risk and material buying risk.
5. The risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project according to claim 4, wherein: the method for calculating the evaluation index weight of the multi-factor risk and constructing the multi-factor risk evaluation model of the field construction of the power transmission and transformation project further comprises the following steps:
calculating a weight vector by using a square root method, namely a geometric mean method;
calculating the maximum characteristic root of the judgment matrix for consistency test;
when consistency test is carried out, calculating a consistency index C.I., introducing an average random consistency index R.I, checking whether the weights have logic contradiction by using a consistency proportion C.R, when C.R. <0.1, indicating that the matrix passes the consistency test, and if the matrix does not pass the consistency test, returning to use an expert scoring method, and constructing a judgment matrix aiming at a risk evaluation system.
6. The risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project according to claim 5, wherein: the method for calculating the weight vector by using the root method, namely the geometric mean method, further comprises the following steps:
multiplying the elements of the rows of the decision matrix, thereby yielding a first vector M expressed as:
Figure QLYQS_1
each component in M is calculated to the power of n, and the vector W is expressed as:
Figure QLYQS_2
normalizing W to obtain a vector W 0 ，W 0 Namely, the weight vector is expressed as:
Figure QLYQS_3
7. the risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project according to any one of claims 4 to 6, characterized in that: the maximum characteristic root lambda max of the judgment matrix is calculated and used for consistency test, and the maximum characteristic root is expressed as:
Figure QLYQS_4
8. the risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project according to claim 7, wherein: the consistency test is carried out, a consistency index C.I. is calculated, an average random consistency index R.I is introduced, whether the consistency proportion C.R. test weight has logic contradiction or not is judged, when the C.R. is <0.1, the matrix passes the consistency test, if the matrix does not pass the consistency test, an expert scoring method is returned, and a judgment matrix is constructed aiming at a risk evaluation system; the consistency check is expressed as:
Figure QLYQS_5
Figure QLYQS_6
9. the risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project according to claim 8, wherein: the judgment matrix and the fuzzy judgment matrix are brought into a model to be calculated, so that risk assessment data of field construction of a power transmission and transformation project is obtained, and the method further comprises the following steps:
and (3) establishing a risk comment set of the power transmission and transformation project, namely T= { T1, T2, T3, T4, T5} = { very low risk, lower risk, medium risk, higher risk and very high risk }. Assigning corresponding scores as parameter column vectors: vi= { v1=10, v2=30, v3=50, v4=70, v5=90 } T 。
10. The risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project according to claim 8 or 9, characterized in that: the judgment matrix and the fuzzy judgment matrix are brought into a model to be calculated, so that risk assessment data of field construction of a power transmission and transformation project is obtained, and the method further comprises the following steps:
and collecting evaluation data of the acquired project data of the power transmission and transformation project by adopting a questionnaire method, wherein the calculated fuzzy evaluation matrix R is expressed as follows:
Figure QLYQS_7
the fuzzy evaluation matrix is multiplied by the weight, and the obtained fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector E is expressed as:
Figure QLYQS_8
the total score S of the evaluation results is calculated as:
S＝E·V。
CN202211564707.6A 2022-12-07 2022-12-07 Risk assessment method for field construction of power transmission and transformation project Pending CN116187743A (en)

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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN117236988A (en) * 2023-10-11 2023-12-15 国网宁夏电力有限公司经济技术研究院 Power transmission and transformation project cost calculation system and cost calculation method

Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN117236988A (en) * 2023-10-11 2023-12-15 国网宁夏电力有限公司经济技术研究院 Power transmission and transformation project cost calculation system and cost calculation method
CN117236988B (en) * 2023-10-11 2024-02-27 国网宁夏电力有限公司经济技术研究院 Power transmission and transformation project cost calculation system and cost calculation method

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