CN116108971B - Convection weather forecasting method and system based on numerical mode convection coverage rate - Google Patents
Convection weather forecasting method and system based on numerical mode convection coverage rate Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application discloses a convection weather forecasting method and system based on a numerical mode convection coverage rate, which are used for screening forecasting modes of whether thunderstorm exists in a place to be forecasted to obtain an optimal forecasting mode; the method comprises the following steps: finding a lattice point capable of representing the position of a forecast place in a forecast mode; selecting a grid point range of N around the grid point, wherein N is an odd number greater than 1; acquiring grid points in different ranges, wherein live conditions of thunderstorm occur/do not occur in different time dimensions; and comparing the forecasting results of different forecasting modes with the live condition, and screening out the grid point range selection, coverage rate and forecasting time scale with the highest scores as the optimal forecasting mode. According to the technical scheme of the application, the invention has the advantages that: the method has guiding significance in the fixed point forecasting of the thunderstorm in the area of the place to be forecasted, and provides reference basis for future weather element forecasting service decision.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the field of weather forecast, in particular to a convection weather forecast method and system based on numerical mode convection coverage rate.
Background
Richardson published in 1921 a paper "dynamic forecast with numerical method", in which the idea of initial numerical forecast was presented, the basic principle of numerical forecast he explained and its feasibility, and the integration of the equation of motion with numerical method was presented. In 1922, he performed the first experiment on his thought, applied the atmospheric motion margin as a system of equations, practiced in germany, calculated the change of air pressure in some layers in germany over time, as a result, the predicted air pressure change in 6 hours had reached 146hPa, but the actual observed result was that the ground air pressure change was small, which was not ideal, and through research, richardson had attributed the cause of this experimental failure to the uncertainty of the mode initial value, during the following decades, the ground and high altitude observation densities were continuously increased, the range was increased, and the computer memory was expanded, finally after the second world, the numerical weather forecast again gave rise to people's attention, the mode resolution was continuously refined from the original coarse grid, and the physical parameterization scheme was more and more comprehensive. Numerical predictions may provide predictions for various time scales, such as short-term predictions, medium-term predictions, and climate predictions. However, these are only single deterministic predictions, and it is well known that the atmosphere is chaotic and has uncertainty, so that in a physical system we can never know exactly what it is. For various reasons, such as errors in observation, errors in analysis, errors in calculation, insufficient occupation of land, etc., errors may occur, and even if we consider that this numerical mode considers various situations in reality, the actual operation may also cause the corresponding prediction result to be infinitely amplified along with the accumulation of the integration step length due to uncertainty of the initial state, and the final result may have a large difference from the actual atmospheric situation.
In 1969, epstein theoretically proposed a power random prediction to solve the problem of this initial error, and provided a theoretical method for handling uncertain events, so that the set prediction should be made, the method first determines an initial field set, this set can be determined by that the errors will be possible, we list one by one, these errors all surround the initial field, this set must contain true values, each of them is possible, we integrate the prediction from this set containing true values, and we can get a corresponding set containing the results of the true prediction. Later with the development of aggregate forecasts, the concept of aggregate forecasts has not just been an aggregate of just initial values, but rather to a random process involving individual physical processes of the model. The applicant believes that for the concept of aggregate forecast: the error range of the mode initial field is estimated preliminarily, an initial state set is provided, and based on the initial state set, the corresponding forecasting results are obtained through continuous integration of the mode and transformation of the incompatible physical process, the forecasting results are also one set, and the final forecasting product is obtained through analysis of the result set. The development of aggregate forecasts enables probabilistic forecasts, a weather occurrence forecast being a probabilistic event, the probabilistic forecasts being a more scientific weather forecast such as: a prediction result set in which 70% of members think that the open day may have precipitation occurs, the probability of predicting the open day precipitation is 70%, the probability of predicting the new time is improved, and the probability of predicting the open day precipitation is increased, so that the probability prediction can provide a reliable estimate for the predictors.
The aviation air is specially used for aviation flight service, and the application of the aviation air in aviation flight can effectively reduce the flight risk and ensure the life and property safety of passengers. And the most impact on aviation is weather. The most dangerous and most weather-affected part of the flight is the take-off and landing part, so weather forecast and observation of the prepared airport and its access area is a serious issue in weather protection. Important weather phenomena affecting the flight are thunderstorm, ice accumulation, jolt, low cloud, low visibility, etc., while among all the important weather affecting the flight, the most affecting the flight safety is the over thunderstorm. Numerical forecasting has been developed to date, which has a good forecasting effect on weather in a certain area, but the forecasting effect on a certain point is not ideal, and the applicant considers that the range of an airport corresponds to a certain point in a mode basically relative to the forecasting range of a numerical mode. The current prediction of whether a thunderstorm occurs in an airport can be regarded as the prediction of whether the thunderstorm occurs at a certain grid point in a numerical mode, and the current prediction mode has low predictability.
Therefore, how to improve the accuracy of airport thunderstorm prediction is a technical problem to be solved in the field.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of this, the present application proposes a convective weather forecast method and system based on a numerical mode convective coverage rate, so as to achieve accuracy of airport thunderstorm forecast.
According to the application, a convection weather forecasting method based on a numerical mode convection coverage rate is provided, and is used for screening a forecasting mode of whether a thunderstorm exists at a place to be forecasted or not to obtain an optimal forecasting mode; the method comprises the following steps:
step 1: finding a lattice point capable of representing the position of a forecast place in a forecast mode;
step 2: selecting a grid point range of N around the grid point, wherein N is an odd number greater than 1;
step 3: acquiring grid points in different ranges, wherein live conditions of thunderstorm occur/do not occur in different time dimensions;
step 4: and comparing the forecasting results of different forecasting modes with the live condition, and screening out the grid point range selection, coverage rate and forecasting time scale with the highest scores as the optimal forecasting mode.
As an improvement of the above method, the step 4 specifically includes:
step 4-1: calculating TS scoring values of different coverage rates from 1*1 grid points to N grid points;
step 4-2: sorting out the schemes with optimal and suboptimal grid number and coverage rate according to TS (transport stream) scores;
step 4-3: calculating hit rates and false alarm rates of grid points and coverage rates in the optimal and suboptimal schemes under various time scales;
step 4-4: the most excellent time scale of hit rate and false alarm rate is selected as the preferred prediction mode.
As an improvement of the above method, the step 4-4 further includes: if the hit rate and the false alarm rate result have conflict, a forecast mode with better hit rate is preferentially selected.
As an improvement of the above method, the various time scales are:
predicting whether thunderstorm occurs or not at a certain moment in the future;
predicting whether thunderstorm occurs or not in the first M hours or the later M hours of a certain moment in the future;
the occurrence/non-occurrence of thunderstorms is predicted at a certain moment in the future, within M hours before the moment and within M hours after the moment.
As a modification of the above method, M has a value of 3.
As a modification of the above method, the N takes a value of 11.
The invention also provides a convection weather forecast system based on the numerical mode convection coverage rate, which is used for screening the forecast mode of whether the thunderstorm exists in the place to be forecasted or not to obtain the optimal forecast mode; characterized in that the system comprises:
the grid point obtaining module is used for finding grid points capable of representing the position of the forecast places in the forecast mode;
a grid point range selecting module, configured to select a grid point range around the grid point, where N is an odd number greater than 1;
the live acquisition module is used for acquiring the grid points in different ranges and the live conditions of occurrence/non-occurrence of thunderstorm in different time dimensions; and
and the screening forecasting mode module is used for comparing and checking forecasting results of different forecasting modes with a live condition, and screening out the grid point range selection, coverage rate and forecasting time scale with the highest scores as the optimal forecasting mode.
According to the technical scheme of the application, the invention has the advantages that: the method has guiding significance in the fixed point forecasting of the thunderstorm in the area of the place to be forecasted, and provides reference basis for future weather element forecasting service decision.
Additional features and advantages of the present application will be set forth in the detailed description which follows.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the application, illustrate embodiments of the application and together with the description serve to explain the application. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for convective weather forecast based on numerical mode convective coverage;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of forecasting mode screening for the example of a capital airport;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of screening TS scores using a thunderstorm forecast method for a capital airport as an example;
FIG. 4 is a diagram of screening POD scores using a thunderstorm forecast method for a capital airport as an example;
FIG. 5 is a diagram of FAR score screening by using a thunderstorm forecast method for a capital airport as an example;
FIG. 6 is a screening TS score chart for a thunderstorm forecast method using a capital airport as an example;
FIG. 7 is a diagram of screening POD scores using a thunderstorm forecast method for a capital airport as an example;
fig. 8 is a diagram of FAR score screening by using the thunderstorm forecast method of the capital airport as an example.
Detailed Description
The invention discloses a convection weather forecasting method and system based on a numerical mode convection coverage rate, which aim to evaluate an element of thunderstorm in a place area to be forecasted by using the numerical forecasting mode, select different grid points and coverage rates around the place to be forecasted, compare live observation values to obtain experience values, screen out a grid point selection method and coverage rate with high accuracy, have guiding significance for the thunderstorm fixed point forecasting in the place area to be forecasted, and provide reference basis for future weather element forecasting service decision.
The technical solutions of the present application will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings in combination with embodiments.
The invention mainly evaluates the accuracy of the thunderstorm prediction from two aspects, namely a time scale and a space scale:
(1) The space scale is embodied in the selection of the grid points of the mode, the to-be-forecasted place can be corresponding to one grid point of the mode, and the grid point is taken as a reference, and the range of N (N is an odd number larger than 1) around the grid point is different space ranges of the research of the invention;
coverage is defined as: if a thunderstorm is predicted, the ratio of the number of points at which the thunderstorm occurs to the total number of points is predicted in the range of the grid points.
The selection of different lattice ranges and the selection of different coverage rates, and the forecasting effect of whether the thunderstorm occurs at the place to be forecasted or not are the basis for evaluating the invention.
(2) The time scale is embodied in the aspect of the time of mode forecasting, and the mode time selected by the invention is respectively as follows:
(1) predicting whether a thunderstorm occurs (does not occur) at a certain moment in the future;
(2) predicting whether thunderstorm occurs (does not occur) within the first M hours or the later M hours of a certain moment in the future;
(3) the occurrence (non-occurrence) of a thunderstorm is predicted at a certain moment in the future, within M hours before the moment and within M hours after the moment.
In practical use, the M preferred value is 3 hours.
And determining an optimal forecasting mode of the to-be-forecasted place when the numerical mode is used for forecasting through the comparison of forecasting effects of different time scales and space scales.
As shown in fig. 1, the steps of the convection weather forecast method based on the numerical mode convection coverage rate of the present invention include:
step 1: finding a lattice point capable of representing the position of a forecast place in a forecast mode;
step 2: selecting a lattice point range of N (N is an odd number greater than 1) around the lattice point;
step 3: acquiring grid points in different ranges, wherein live conditions of thunderstorm occur (do not occur) in different time dimensions;
step 4: comparing and checking the forecasting results of different forecasting modes with the live condition, and screening out the grid point range selection, coverage rate and forecasting time scale with the highest score as a preferable forecasting mode;
the specific screening process is as follows:
calculating TS scoring values of different coverage rates from 1*1 grid points to N grid points (scoring standard of world meteorological organizations on quantitative rainfall forecast accuracy);
sorting out the schemes with optimal and suboptimal grid number and coverage rate according to TS (transport stream) scores;
calculating hit rate (POD) and False Alarm Rate (FAR) of grid points and coverage rate in the optimal and suboptimal schemes under three time scales;
selecting the time scale with the most excellent hit rate and false alarm rate as a preferable forecasting mode; if the hit rate and the false alarm rate result have conflict, a forecast mode with better hit rate is selected preferentially, because weather forecast is 'error-relieving and leak-free'.
In one embodiment of the present invention, taking the capital airport as an example, as shown in fig. 2:
in a series of researches, the global mode forecast of the European middle weather forecast center (EC) is found to have better forecast effect, and the forecast elements are selected to simulate the radar reflectivity. The invention was therefore studied with regard to radar combination reflectivity of EC in empirical value determination of whether a thunderstorm occurred at a main airport. For the pattern radar combined reflectivity element of EC pattern, the present invention considers that there is a thunderstorm occurrence greater than 35dbz, otherwise no thunderstorm occurs.
And finding grid points corresponding to the modes of the capital airport, and taking the grid points as a reference, and selecting the ranges of the grid points of 3,5, 7 and 11 around the grid points as the range of the forecast grid points to be screened.
When thunderstorm is predicted to occur:
as shown in fig. 3, it can be seen that, on a spatial scale, the TS score can be seen that the grid point selected 5*5 has a significant improvement on the forecast score, the grid point 7*7 also has a better TS score, and the TS score is not improved after more grid points (11×11) are added, but the score is reduced, so that the grid point selection 5*5 or 7*7 is suggested, and no more grid points are needed; and the graph can also show that the experience coverage rate of the thunderstorm of the capital airport is 0.25-0.33, and the score is higher, namely, more than 25% -33% of grid points in 5*5 or 7*7 forecast the occurrence of the thunderstorm, and the capital airport can be considered to have the thunderstorm without higher coverage rate. In addition, from the point of hit and the false alarm rate, the grid point of 7*7 and the coverage rate of 33% can effectively reduce the false alarm rate, the accuracy is higher, and although the TS score is slightly lower, the grid point of 7*7 and the coverage rate of 33% are suggested.
As shown in fig. 4 and 5, when the coverage rate is 0.33 after selecting the grid point of 7*7 on the time scale, and the thunderstorm appears in the first three hours or the last three hours of the forecasting time or at the time, the scoring for forecasting that the thunderstorm occurs in the capital airport is better.
Thus, when the combined reflectivity of the EC is used for a thunderstorm forecast at the capital airport, the empirical value of the pattern should be chosen to be 7*7 grid points around the capital airport, and the grid points forecast that thunderstorms occur are more than 33% of the total number, and the thunderstorms occur in the first three hours or the last three hours or at the same time of the forecast time, then the capital airport is considered to be in existence of the thunderstorms.
When no thunderstorm is predicted to occur:
as shown in fig. 6, it can be seen that, on a spatial scale, as can be seen from the TS score, the score of the grid point selected 5*5 for predicting the occurrence of no thunderstorm is obviously improved, the grid point 7*7 also has good effect, and the score is not greatly improved after more grid points are added; and it can also be seen that the empirical coverage rate of the first airport is 0.75, that is, more than 75% of the grid points (25×0.75=18) of the grid points 5*5 or 7*7 are predicted to be free from thunderstorms, and that the first airport is not expected to be free from thunderstorms.
As shown in fig. 7 and 8, when the coverage exceeds 0.75 after selecting the lattice of 5*5 or 7*7, the lattice of 7*7 is better, and when no thunderstorm occurs in the first three hours or the last three hours of the forecast time or at the time, the hit rate and the false alarm rate are better.
Therefore, when the combined reflectivity of EC is used for determining no thunderstorm at the capital airport, the empirical value of the mode should select 7*7 grid points around the capital airport, the grid points forecast that no thunderstorm occurs exceeds 75% of the total number, and no thunderstorm occurs in the first three hours or the last three hours or at the time of forecasting, so that no thunderstorm is considered to occur at the capital airport.
Another embodiment of the invention:
the invention also provides a convection weather forecast system based on the numerical mode convection coverage rate, which is used for screening the forecast mode of whether the thunderstorm exists in the place to be forecasted or not to obtain the optimal forecast mode; characterized in that the system comprises:
the grid point obtaining module is used for finding grid points capable of representing the position of the forecast places in the forecast mode;
a grid point range selecting module, configured to select a grid point range of n×n around the grid point, where N is an odd number greater than 1;
the live acquisition module is used for acquiring the grid points in different ranges and the live conditions of occurrence/non-occurrence of thunderstorm in different time dimensions; and
and the screening forecasting mode module is used for comparing and checking forecasting results of different forecasting modes with a live condition, and screening out the grid point range selection, coverage rate and forecasting time scale with the highest scores as the optimal forecasting mode.
According to the invention, the element of thunderstorm in an airport area is forecasted by utilizing a numerical forecasting mode, different grid points and coverage rates around the airport are selected, and then airport observation is compared to obtain an empirical value: the lattice point selection method and the coverage rate have guiding significance for thunderstorm spot forecasting in the airport area, and provide reference basis for future airport element forecasting service decision.
The preferred embodiments of the present application have been described in detail above, but the present application is not limited to the specific details of the above embodiments, and various simple modifications may be made to the technical solutions of the present application within the scope of the technical concept of the present application, and all the simple modifications belong to the protection scope of the present application.
In addition, the specific features described in the foregoing embodiments may be combined in any suitable manner, and in order to avoid unnecessary repetition, various possible combinations are not described in detail.
Moreover, any combination of the various embodiments of the present application may be made without departing from the spirit of the present application, which should also be considered as the disclosure of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. The convection weather forecast method based on the numerical mode convection coverage rate is used for screening the forecast mode of whether thunderstorm exists in a place to be forecasted to obtain an optimal forecast mode; the method comprises the following steps:
step 1: finding a lattice point capable of representing the position of a forecast place in a forecast mode;
step 2: selecting a grid point range of N around the grid point, wherein N is an odd number greater than 1;
step 3: acquiring grid points in different ranges, wherein live conditions of thunderstorm occurrence/non-occurrence of various time scales are obtained;
step 4: comparing and checking the forecasting results of different forecasting modes with the live condition, and screening out the grid point range selection, coverage rate and forecasting time scale with the highest score as the optimal forecasting mode;
the step 4 specifically comprises the following steps:
step 4-1: calculating TS scoring values of different coverage rates from 1*1 grid points to N grid points;
step 4-2: sorting out the schemes with optimal and suboptimal grid number and coverage rate according to TS (transport stream) scores;
step 4-3: calculating hit rates and false alarm rates of grid points and coverage rates in the optimal and suboptimal schemes under various time scales;
step 4-4: selecting the most excellent time scale in the hit rate and the false alarm rate as an optimal forecasting mode;
the multiple time scales are:
predicting whether thunderstorm occurs or not at a certain moment in the future;
predicting whether thunderstorm occurs or not in the first M hours or the later M hours of a certain moment in the future;
predicting whether thunderstorm occurs or not in a certain moment in the future, M hours before the moment and M hours after the moment;
the coverage rate is as follows: if the thunderstorm is predicted, the ratio of the number of points at which the thunderstorm occurs to the total number of points is predicted in the selected grid point range.
2. The method for convective weather forecast based on numerical mode convective coverage of claim 1, wherein said step 4-4 further comprises: if the hit rate and the false alarm rate result have conflict, a forecast mode with better hit rate is preferentially selected.
3. The convective weather forecast method based on numerical mode convective coverage of claim 1, wherein M takes a value of 3.
4. The convective weather forecast method based on numerical mode convective coverage of claim 1, wherein said N takes a value of 11.
5. The convection weather forecast system based on the numerical mode convection coverage rate is used for screening the forecast mode of whether thunderstorm exists at a place to be forecasted to obtain an optimal forecast mode; characterized in that the system comprises:
the grid point obtaining module is used for finding grid points capable of representing the position of the forecast places in the forecast mode;
a grid point range selecting module, configured to select a grid point range of n×n around the grid point, where N is an odd number greater than 1;
the live acquisition module is used for acquiring the grid points in different ranges, and the live conditions of occurrence/non-occurrence of thunderstorm in various time scales; and
the screening forecast mode module is used for comparing and checking forecast results of different forecast modes with a live condition, and screening out the grid point range selection, coverage rate and forecast time scale with the highest score as an optimal forecast mode;
the specific process executed by the screening and forecasting mode module is as follows:
step 4-1: calculating TS scoring values of different coverage rates from 1*1 grid points to N grid points;
step 4-2: sorting out the schemes with optimal and suboptimal grid number and coverage rate according to TS (transport stream) scores;
step 4-3: calculating hit rates and false alarm rates of grid points and coverage rates in the optimal and suboptimal schemes under various time scales;
step 4-4: selecting the most excellent time scale in the hit rate and the false alarm rate as an optimal forecasting mode;
the multiple time scales are:
predicting whether thunderstorm occurs or not at a certain moment in the future;
predicting whether thunderstorm occurs or not in the first M hours or the later M hours of a certain moment in the future;
predicting whether thunderstorm occurs or not in a certain moment in the future, M hours before the moment and M hours after the moment;
the coverage rate is as follows: if the thunderstorm is predicted, the ratio of the number of points at which the thunderstorm occurs to the total number of points is predicted in the selected grid point range.
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| CN109615236A (en) * | 2018-12-13 | 2019-04-12 | 深圳市气象局 | Precipitation forecast mode checking methods of marking, system, terminal and storage medium |
| CN110163426A (en) * | 2019-05-09 | 2019-08-23 | 中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院 | A kind of multi-mode integrates precipitation forecast method and device |
| CN110399634A (en) * | 2019-06-10 | 2019-11-01 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | It is a kind of based on weather system influence forecast area determine method and system |
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