CN116050854B - Postal wheel risk prevention and control method and system - Google Patents
Postal wheel risk prevention and control method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a system for preventing and controlling the risk of a mail wheel, which belong to the technical field of risk assessment and solve the problems that the prior method can not quantitatively assess the accident risk degree of sudden public health events and can not effectively early warn nodes with large transmission risk, and the method comprises the following steps: obtaining a target mail wheel structure plan; constructing an accident cause complex network based on accident influence risk factors; calculating the architecture reliability of the mail-wheel propagation network architecture based on the accident cause complex network, calculating the severity of the sub-nodes of the target mail-wheel propagation network architecture, and calculating the potential risk values of the sub-nodes of the mail-wheel propagation network architecture based on the severity of the sub-nodes and the domino effect; the method and the system calculate the potential risk value of the mail-wheel propagation network architecture sub-node based on the sub-node severity and the domino effect, so that the evaluation result is more objective and accurate, and method support is provided for the mail-wheel sudden public health event accident risk classification and management and control.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of risk assessment, and particularly relates to a method and a system for preventing and controlling the risk of a mail wheel.
Background
In the shipping process of the postal wheel, the public epidemic prevention and the navigation safety of the postal wheel are needed to be closely concerned, and because the large postal wheel belongs to a highly concentrated crowd semi-closed place, the postal wheel is sensitive to risks of public safety and public health epidemic prevention, has higher diffusion risks, and is easy to cause irreversible sudden public health accidents. Meanwhile, the international mail carrier passenger source distribution is complex, a plurality of countries are often involved, frequent activities of personnel in the mail carrier have high aggregation (various catering, gathering and activities), and international cooperation coping mechanisms of a plurality of stakeholders such as international mail carrier companies, local governments of mother harbors and visit harbors, nations of ship registration, tourists, service personnel and shipmen are imperfect, so that how to accurately early warn the mail carrier sudden public health event is important.
Chinese patent CN112365996a discloses a disease transmission prevention and control method and system, the method uses the person to be monitored as a node, and collects the basic data of each node and the neighboring nodes of the node as node data; taking the node with the basic data exceeding the set threshold value as an initial infected person node; an SIR model is adopted, an initial infecting person node is taken as a vertex, an infection map network is constructed based on the vertex and other node information adjacent to the vertex, a plurality of transmission center states in the infection map network are set as infection states I, all other nodes are set as susceptibility states S, and a disease transmission process is simulated; calculating to obtain a source node by adopting a tracing algorithm; generating the number of nodes to be isolated according to the importance degree of other nodes, and outputting labels of a source node and other nodes to prevent and control disease transmission; however, the existing method cannot quantitatively evaluate the accident risk degree of the sudden public health event, and cannot effectively early warn nodes with large transmission risk, so that the accident risk fuzzy uncertainty is increased in a closed propagation environment.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a method and a system for preventing and controlling the risk of a mail wheel, which solve the problems that the prior method cannot quantitatively evaluate the accident risk degree of sudden public health events and cannot effectively early warn nodes with large transmission risk.
The existing method cannot quantitatively evaluate the accident risk degree of the sudden public health event and cannot effectively early warn nodes with large transmission risk, so that the accident risk fuzzy uncertainty is increased in a closed propagation environment; briefly, the method comprises: obtaining a target mail wheel structure plan; constructing an accident cause complex network based on accident influence risk factors; accident cause complex network based architecture reliability for calculating mail wheel propagation network architecture
-reliability of the architecture +.>
Giving the target mail wheel propagation network architecture node the branch reliability of the node is obtained>
Integrating the branch reliability of the partial node->
A collection; then calculate the severity of the target mail wheel propagation network architecture sub-node +.>
And based on the severity of the minute node +.>
Calculating potential risk value of mailbox propagation network architecture minute node by combining domino effect>
. Aiming at the uncertainty and the ambiguity of the accident risk of the mail-wheel sudden public health event, the method constructs an entropy weight-based multi-attribute decision model from the aspects of the severity and the risk value of the accident risk of the mail-wheel sudden public health event, evaluates the accident risk of the mail-wheel sudden public health event, simultaneously classifies the uncertainty of evaluation grades in the subjective, unilateral and limiting and quantitative scoring evaluation process of evaluating personnel on the risk evaluation qualitative evaluation index, constructs a quantitative standard accident cause complex network, enables the evaluation result to be more objective and accurate, and provides method support for the classification and the management of the accident risk of the mail-wheel sudden public health event.
The invention is realized in such a way that a postal wheel risk prevention and control method comprises the following steps:
acquiring a target mail wheel structure plan, and constructing a target mail wheel propagation network architecture based on the target mail wheel structure plan;
identifying accident influence risk factors of sudden public health events of the mail wheels by adopting a preset association identification rule, identifying the inherent association of the accident influence risk factors, and constructing an accident cause complex network based on the accident influence risk factors;
accident cause complex network based architecture reliability for calculating mail wheel propagation network architecture
-reliability of the architecture +.>
Giving the target mail wheel propagation network architecture node the branch reliability of the node is obtained>
Integrating the branch reliability of the partial node->
A collection;
constructing an entropy weight-based multi-attribute decision model, evaluating accident risk of the public health event of the mail wheel, and calculating the severity of the sub-nodes of the target mail wheel transmission network architecture
And based on the severity of the minute node +.>
Calculating potential risk value of mailbox propagation network architecture minute node by combining domino effect>
。
Preferably, the method for constructing the target mail wheel propagation network architecture based on the target mail wheel structure plan specifically comprises the following steps:
acquiring a target mail wheel structure plan, and establishing a three-dimensional architecture network of the target mail wheel based on the target mail wheel structure plan
Wherein the three-dimensional architectureThe partial nodes of the network are extracted through a complex network, and the partial node coordinates are expressed as
And three-dimensional architecture net->
Middle->
For the set of segmented node coordinates +.>
Is a set of connection lines of the partial nodes;
to three-dimensional architecture net
Normalization processing is carried out to obtain a normalized propagation matrix based on a complex network>
Normalized propagation matrix->
The method comprises the following steps:
wherein ,
，/>
，/>
1，/>
representing the split node weight parameter, +.>
Representing the number of the sub-nodes;
the said
The calculation formula (2) of (2) is:
wherein ,
representing propagation matrix->
Weight constant index of>
For the current minute node->
Connectivity to associated nodes, said +.>
Calculated by equation (3);
wherein ,
for single point connected function, ">
For the number of the current partial node communication lines, +.>
The number of the total communication lines is the matrix.
Preferably, the method for constructing the target mail wheel propagation network architecture based on the target mail wheel structure plan view specifically further comprises the following steps:
calculating normalized propagation matrices respectively
Middle split node->
Is>
Based on the disturbance rejection index->
Construction of inclusion of an anti-interference index->
Is characterized in that the disturbance rejection index is +.>
Is calculated by equation (4);
preferably, the method for constructing the accident cause complex network based on the accident influence risk factors specifically comprises the following steps:
acquiring all factors of accident influence risk
The risk factors are treated by Hill ordering>
Sequencing, namely generating a risk factor queue, and sequencing for a plurality of times to obtain a risk factor matrix which is mutually influenced;
taking any risk factor in the risk factor matrix, and combining the risk factor with adjacent risk factors
Individual risk factor links, generating a link with +.>
Adjacent rule networks of strip edges;
probability each edge in adjacent rule network
And (3) reconnecting to obtain a reconnection rule network, and meanwhile, ensuring that the network has no repeated edge during reconnection, and integrating the reconnection rule network and the adjacent rule network to obtain the accident-caused complex network.
Preferably, the method for constructing the accident cause complex network based on the accident influence risk factors specifically further comprises:
and testing and verifying the accident of the mail wheel sudden public health event in the accident cause complex network based on the accident cause theory comprehensive cause theory model to obtain the adjusted accident cause complex network.
Preferably, said integrating said architectural reliability
The method for endowing the target mail wheel propagation network architecture node specifically comprises the following steps:
accident cause complex network based architecture reliability for calculating mail wheel propagation network architecture
Architecture reliability is calculated by equation (5)>
；
Propagation matrix loading a mail wheel propagation network architecture
Calculating the branch reliability of the nodes in the mail wheel propagation network architecture through a formula (6)>
；
Preferably, the computing target mail wheel propagation network architecture node severity
Specifically comprises the following steps:
based on split node branching
Computing the severity of the nodes of the propagation network architecture>
；
wherein ,
for the reliability of the split node branch, +.>
For the current node branch propagation contact chaos coefficient, defining the current node branch propagation contact chaos coefficient by adopting a Logistic function, and +.>
And propagating the contact chaos coefficient for the adjacent node branch.
Preferably, the and is based on the severity of the minute node
Calculating potential risk value of mailbox propagation network architecture minute node by combining domino effect>
Specifically comprises the following steps:
determining a neighboring segmented node spacing matrix;
calculating a risk matrix of the adjacent sub-node distance matrix based on the Gaussian probability distribution function;
determining risk moment based on risk matrixThe coverage area of the array adopts SSE algorithm to calculate the potential risk value of the mail wheel transmission network architecture node
。
The application also discloses a mail wheel risk prevention and control system, which specifically comprises:
the plane view acquisition module is used for acquiring a plane view of the target mail wheel structure and constructing a target mail wheel propagation network architecture based on the plane view of the target mail wheel structure;
the complex network construction module adopts a preset association identification rule to identify accident influence risk factors of the mail wheel sudden public health event, identifies the inherent association of the accident influence risk factors and constructs an accident cause complex network based on the accident influence risk factors;
the system comprises a node branch reliability calculation module, a node branch reliability calculation module and a node branch reliability calculation module, wherein the node branch reliability calculation module calculates the architecture reliability of a mail wheel propagation network architecture based on an accident cause complex network, endows the architecture reliability to a target mail wheel propagation network architecture node, obtains the node branch reliability, and integrates a node branch reliability set.
Preferably, the system for controlling risk of postal wheels further comprises:
the risk assessment module is used for assessing the accident risk of the public health event of the mail wheel burst by constructing a multi-attribute decision model based on entropy weight, calculating the severity of the nodes of the target mail wheel transmission network architecture, and calculating the potential risk value of the nodes of the mail wheel transmission network architecture based on the severity of the nodes and the domino effect.
Compared with the prior art, the embodiment of the application has the following main beneficial effects:
the method comprises the steps of constructing a quantitative standard accident cause complex network, calculating the severity of the target mail wheel transmission network architecture sub-nodes, calculating the potential risk value of the mail wheel transmission network architecture sub-nodes based on the severity of the sub-nodes and the domino effect, enabling the evaluation result to be objective and accurate, and providing method support for grading and controlling the risk of the mail wheel sudden public health event accident.
Meanwhile, the method can also be used for constructing an entropy weight-based multi-attribute decision model for evaluating the accident risk of the sudden public health event of the mail wheel according to the uncertainty and the ambiguity of the accident risk of the sudden public health event of the mail wheel and from the aspects of the severity and the risk value of the accident risk of the sudden public health event of the mail wheel.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of an implementation flow of a method for controlling risk of a mail wheel according to the present invention.
Fig. 2 shows a schematic implementation flow diagram of a method for constructing a target mail wheel propagation network architecture based on a target mail wheel structure plan.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of an implementation flow of a method for constructing an accident cause complex network based on accident impact risk factors.
Fig. 4 shows a schematic implementation flow diagram of a method of assigning the architecture reliability to the target mail drop network architecture node.
Fig. 5 shows a schematic flow chart of an implementation of a method for calculating a risk potential value for a node of a wheel propagation network architecture based on the severity of the node in combination with domino effect.
Fig. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of a system for controlling risk of a postal wheel according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs; the terminology used in the description of the applications herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the application; the terms "comprising" and "having" and any variations thereof in the description and claims of the present application and in the description of the figures above are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions. The terms first, second and the like in the description and in the claims or in the above-described figures, are used for distinguishing between different objects and not necessarily for describing a sequential or chronological order.
Reference herein to "an embodiment" means that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment may be included in at least one embodiment of the present application. The appearances of such phrases in various places in the specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment, nor are separate or alternative embodiments mutually exclusive of other embodiments. Those of skill in the art will explicitly and implicitly appreciate that the embodiments described herein may be combined with other embodiments.
The existing method cannot quantitatively evaluate the accident risk degree of the sudden public health event and cannot effectively early warn nodes with large transmission risk, so that the accident risk fuzzy uncertainty is increased in a closed propagation environment; briefly, the method comprises: obtaining a target mail wheel structure plan; constructing an accident cause complex network based on accident influence risk factors; accident cause complex network based architecture reliability for calculating mail wheel propagation network architecture
-reliability of the architecture +.>
Giving the target mail wheel propagation network architecture node the branch reliability of the node is obtained>
Integrating the branch reliability of the partial node->
A collection; then calculate the severity of the target mail wheel propagation network architecture sub-node +.>
And based on the severity of the minute node +.>
Calculating potential risk value of mailbox propagation network architecture minute node by combining domino effect>
. Aiming at the uncertainty and the ambiguity of the accident risk of the mail-wheel sudden public health event, the method constructs an entropy weight-based multi-attribute decision model from the aspects of the severity and the risk value of the accident risk of the mail-wheel sudden public health event, evaluates the accident risk of the mail-wheel sudden public health event, simultaneously classifies the uncertainty of evaluation grades in the subjective, unilateral and limiting and quantitative scoring evaluation process of evaluating personnel on the risk evaluation qualitative evaluation index, constructs a quantitative standard accident cause complex network, enables the evaluation result to be more objective and accurate, and provides method support for the classification and the management of the accident risk of the mail-wheel sudden public health event.
The embodiment of the invention provides a mail wheel risk prevention and control method, as shown in fig. 1, which shows an implementation flow diagram of the mail wheel risk prevention and control method, wherein the mail wheel risk prevention and control method specifically comprises the following steps:
step S10, a target mail wheel structure plan is obtained, and a target mail wheel propagation network architecture is constructed based on the target mail wheel structure plan;
step S20, identifying accident influence risk factors of sudden public health events of the mail wheels by adopting a preset association identification rule, identifying the inherent association of the accident influence risk factors, and constructing an accident cause complex network based on the accident influence risk factors;
step S30, calculating the architecture reliability of the mail box propagation network architecture based on the accident cause complex network
-reliability of the architecture +.>
Giving the target mail wheel propagation network architecture node the branch reliability of the node is obtained>
Integrating the branch reliability of the partial node->
A collection;
step S40, constructing an entropy weight-based multi-attribute decision model, evaluating the accident risk of the public health event of the mail wheel, and calculating the severity of the sub-node of the target mail wheel transmission network architecture
And based on the severity of the minute node +.>
Calculating potential risk value of mailbox propagation network architecture minute node by combining domino effect>
。
In this embodiment, it should be noted that, by constructing the target carrier-propagation network architecture, the present application may preprocess the target carrier-propagation network architecture, so as to calculate the severity of the nodes of the target carrier-propagation network architecture
Provides a more accurate and reliable basis.
The method comprises the steps of constructing a quantitative standard accident cause complex network, calculating the severity of the target mail wheel transmission network architecture sub-nodes, calculating the potential risk value of the mail wheel transmission network architecture sub-nodes based on the severity of the sub-nodes and the domino effect, enabling the evaluation result to be objective and accurate, and providing method support for grading and controlling the risk of the mail wheel sudden public health event accident.
The embodiment of the invention provides a method for constructing a target mail wheel propagation network architecture based on a target mail wheel structure plan, and as shown in fig. 2, an implementation flow diagram of the method for constructing the target mail wheel propagation network architecture based on the target mail wheel structure plan is shown, and the method for constructing the target mail wheel propagation network architecture based on the target mail wheel structure plan specifically comprises the following steps:
step S101, obtaining a target mail wheel structure plan, and establishing a three-dimensional architecture network of the target mail wheel based on the target mail wheel structure plan
Wherein, the partial nodes of the three-dimensional architecture network are extracted through a complex network, and the partial node coordinates are expressed as +.>
And three-dimensional architecture net->
Middle->
For the set of segmented node coordinates +.>
Is a set of connection lines of the partial nodes;
step S102, for three-dimensional architecture net
Normalization processing is carried out to obtain a normalized propagation matrix based on a complex network>
Normalized propagation matrix->
The method comprises the following steps:
wherein ,
，/>
，/>
1，/>
representing the split node weight parameter, +.>
Representation ofThe number of the sub-nodes;
the said
The calculation formula (2) of (2) is:
wherein ,
representing propagation matrix->
Weight constant index of>
For the current minute node->
Connectivity to associated nodes, said +.>
Calculated by equation (3);
wherein ,
for single point connected function, ">
For the number of the current partial node communication lines, +.>
The number of the total communication lines is the matrix.
It should be noted that the number of the substrates,
，/>
is a single point connected function used for representing the propagation matrix +.>
Middle->
For the degree of connectivity for the propagation matrix->
In other words, the larger the single point connectivity function, the more serious the propagation of the current node is, and the larger the range of the swept area is. Conversely, if the single point connectivity function is smaller, the propagation matrix +.>
Has strong capability of resisting disturbance and light propagation degree,
step S103, calculating normalized propagation matrices
Middle split node->
Is>
Based on the disturbance rejection index->
Construction of inclusion of an anti-interference index->
Is characterized in that the disturbance rejection index is +.>
Is calculated by equation (4);
in the present embodimentTamper indicator
Brittleness is an attribute of a target mail wheel propagation network, and is used for finding weak nodes and links which are easy to damage, exacerbate propagation risks and even break down the network when the target mail wheel propagation network is in operation, and measuring the influence of the weak nodes on the propagation network. For closed mail wheels, when the current node immunity index +.>
Even if it is subject to a low intensity attack or disturbance, serious consequences can occur, so it is important to find the current node and measure the impact of the current weak node. Considering the factors of the mail-wheel pipe network, the road design conditions and the functional differences of different functional areas, the anti-interference indexes of different sub-nodes are +.>
And plays a different role in the overall operation of the overall target mail wheel propagation network.
The embodiment of the invention provides a method for constructing an accident cause complex network based on accident influence risk factors, which is shown in fig. 3, and shows an implementation flow diagram of the method for constructing the accident cause complex network based on the accident influence risk factors, wherein the method for constructing the accident cause complex network based on the accident influence risk factors specifically comprises the following steps:
step S201, obtaining all factors of accident influence risk
The risk factors are treated by Hill ordering>
Sequencing, namely generating a risk factor queue, and sequencing for a plurality of times to obtain a risk factor matrix which is mutually influenced;
step S202, taking any risk factor in the risk factor matrix, and combining the risk factor with the adjacent risk factors
Individual risk factor links, generating a link with +.>
Adjacent rule networks of strip edges;
step S203, probability is given to each edge in adjacent rule networks
And (3) reconnecting to obtain a reconnection rule network, and meanwhile, ensuring that the network has no repeated edge during reconnection, and integrating the reconnection rule network and the adjacent rule network to obtain the accident-caused complex network.
And step S204, testing and verifying the accident of the mail wheel sudden public health event in the accident cause complex network based on the accident cause theory comprehensive cause theory model to obtain the adjusted accident cause complex network.
In this embodiment, the physical evolution process of the rock burst accident can be parsed from the material and energy perspectives by applying the hailing theory of the sea-going accident and the energy transfer theory, and the unsafe behavior and the unsafe state of energy (material) of the person causing the accident of the mail-wheel sudden public health accident are analyzed to reveal the material flow and the energy flow transfer and conversion relations of the occurrence, the development and the evolution of the accident of the mail-wheel sudden public health accident. On the basis of analyzing the composition and characteristics of the complex system of the mail wheels, the general characteristics of the accident of the sudden public health event of the mail wheels are synthesized, and the accident cause theory comprehensive reason model is used for analyzing the risk factors of the accident of the sudden public health event of the mail wheels.
All factors affecting risk of accident
The system can construct a post-wheel emergency public health event accident risk index system containing 5 primary indexes and 60 risk index factors from the aspects of environment, management, personnel, equipment and pipe network, can construct a complex network of post-wheel emergency public health event accident cause relations, and provides a basis for post-wheel emergency public health event accident risk evolution and evaluation.
Embodiments of the present invention provide for reliability of the architecture
Method of assigning the target mail wheel propagation network architecture node, as shown in FIG. 4, showing the architecture reliability +.>
Schematic implementation flow diagram of method for endowing target mail wheel propagation network architecture node, wherein the architecture reliability is +.>
The method for endowing the target mail wheel propagation network architecture node specifically comprises the following steps:
step S301, calculating the reliability of the mail box propagation network architecture based on the accident cause complex network
Architecture reliability is calculated by equation (5)>
；
Step S302, loading a propagation matrix of the mail wheel propagation network architecture
Calculating the branch reliability of the nodes in the mail wheel propagation network architecture through a formula (6)>
；
In this embodiment, the reliability of the mail-wheel propagation network architecture is calculated based on the accident cause complex network
According to the established risk index factors of the post-wheel sudden public health event, aiming at the structural characteristics of the post-wheel sudden public health event complex system and the vulnerability of the post-wheel sudden public health event accident risk state, a post-wheel sudden public health event complex system accident risk evolution topology model is established, a risk entropy function for representing post-wheel sudden public health event accident risk evolution is established, and accident risk fuzzy uncertainty processing is carried out.
By way of example, the method and the system abstract the mail wheel sudden public health event accident risk transfer path into a weighted directed acyclic graph, measure the size and evolution process of the mail wheel sudden public health event accident risk by the length of the transfer path, explore the risk evolution mode causing the mail wheel sudden public health event accident, and obtain the importance degree, the contact correlation degree and the non-topological factor transfer path of each domino effect risk factor causing the mail wheel sudden public health event accident. Finally, based on the risk evolution path broken ring concept, an accident risk key factor is eliminated or controlled to block the evolution and development of the accident risk of the mail-wheel sudden public health event.
In the present application, the severity of the target mail wheel propagation network architecture node is calculated
Specifically comprises the following steps:
based on split node branching
Computing the severity of the nodes of the propagation network architecture>
；
wherein ,
for the reliability of the split node branch, +.>
For the current node branch propagation contact chaos coefficient, defining the current node branch propagation contact chaos coefficient by adopting a Logistic function, and +.>
And propagating the contact chaos coefficient for the adjacent node branch. It should be noted that->
。
The embodiment of the invention provides severity based on the sub-nodes
Calculating potential risk value of mailbox propagation network architecture minute node by combining domino effect>
As shown in FIG. 5, the method is shown based on the severity of the split node +.>
Calculating potential risk value of mailbox propagation network architecture minute node by combining domino effect>
Schematic implementation flow of method, wherein the severity of the method based on the split node>
Calculating potential risk value of mailbox propagation network architecture minute node by combining domino effect>
Specifically comprises the following steps:
step S401, determining a neighboring segmented node spacing matrix;
step S402, calculating a risk matrix of the adjacent sub-node distance matrix based on a Gaussian probability distribution function;
step S403, determining coverage area of the risk matrix based on the risk matrix, and calculating potential risk value of the mail-wheel propagation network architecture node by adopting SSE algorithm
。
In the embodiment, the SSE algorithm can be used for calculating the probability of secondary, tertiary and quaternary accidents of the mail wheel domino effect, and meanwhile, the SSE algorithm is used for programming by Matlab language, and the simulation times are 40 and 60; probability of postulation accident of each mail wheel propagation network architecture sub-node
The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Through SSE algorithm simulation calculation, the maximum relative error of the two calculation results is smaller than 0.05%, and the SSE algorithm calculation accuracy is higher when the simulation times are 60.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a mail wheel risk prevention and control system, as shown in fig. 6, which shows a schematic structural diagram of the mail wheel risk prevention and control system, and specifically includes:
a plan view acquiring module 100, where the plan view acquiring module 100 is configured to acquire a plan view of a target mail wheel structure, and construct a target mail wheel propagation network architecture based on the plan view of the target mail wheel structure;
the complex network construction module 200 adopts a preset association identification rule to identify accident influence risk factors of the sudden public health event of the mail wheel, identifies the inherent association of the accident influence risk factors and constructs an accident cause complex network based on the accident influence risk factors;
the node branch reliability calculation module 300 calculates the architecture reliability of the mail-wheel propagation network architecture based on the accident cause complex network, gives the architecture reliability to the target mail-wheel propagation network architecture node, obtains the node branch reliability, and integrates the node branch reliability set.
The risk assessment module 400 calculates the severity of the target mail-wheel transmission network architecture nodes by constructing an entropy weight-based multi-attribute decision model for the risk assessment of mail-wheel sudden public health event accidents, and calculates the potential risk value of the mail-wheel transmission network architecture nodes based on the severity of the nodes and the domino effect.
In this embodiment, the plan view acquisition module 100, the complex network construction module 200, the node branch reliability calculation module 300, and the risk assessment module 400 implement data interaction by adopting 5G communication or WIFI communication, and the risk assessment module 400 may be a mobile terminal, a fixed device, an application website, and an APP, and in some embodiments, the risk assessment module 400 also supports interconnection of IPv6 or IPv 4.
Another embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing computer program instructions executable by a processor. The computer program instructions when executed implement a mail wheel risk prevention and control method as described above.
In another aspect of the embodiments of the present invention, there is also provided a computer device, including a memory and a processor, where the memory stores a computer program that, when executed by the processor, implements the method of any of the embodiments described above.
It will be appreciated that in the preferred embodiment provided by the present invention, the computer device may also be a notebook computer, a personal digital assistant (Personal Digital Assistant, PDA), a cell phone, or the like, which may communicate.
For example, a computer program may be split into one or more modules, one or more modules stored in memory and executed by a processor to perform the present invention. One or more of the modules may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing specific functions for describing the execution of the computer program in the terminal device. For example, the computer program may be divided into units or modules of a mail wheel risk prevention and control system provided by the various system embodiments described above.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the foregoing description of the terminal device is merely exemplary and does not constitute a limitation of the terminal device, and may include more or fewer components than those described above, or may combine certain components, or different components, such as may include input-output devices, network access devices, buses, etc.
The processor may be a central processing unit (Central Processing Unit, CPU), other general purpose processors, digital signal processors (Digital Signal Processor, DSP), application specific integrated circuits (Application Specific Integrated Circuit, ASIC), off-the-shelf programmable gate arrays (Field-Programmable Gate Array, FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, or the like. The general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like, which is the control center of the terminal device described above, and which connects the various parts of the entire user terminal using various interfaces and lines.
The memory may be used for storing computer programs and/or modules, and the processor may implement various functions of the terminal device by running or executing the computer programs and/or modules stored in the memory and invoking data stored in the memory. The memory may mainly include a memory program area and a memory data area, wherein the memory program area may store an operating system, at least one application program required for a function; in addition, the memory may include high-speed random access memory, and may also include non-volatile memory, such as a hard disk, memory, plug-in hard disk, smart Media Card (SMC), secure Digital (SD) Card, flash Card (Flash Card), at least one disk storage device, flash memory device, or other volatile solid-state storage device.
Finally, it should be noted that the computer-readable storage media (e.g., memory) herein can be either volatile memory or nonvolatile memory, or can include both volatile and nonvolatile memory. By way of example, and not limitation, nonvolatile memory can include Read Only Memory (ROM), programmable ROM (PROM), electrically Programmable ROM (EPROM), electrically Erasable Programmable ROM (EEPROM), or flash memory. Volatile memory can include Random Access Memory (RAM), which acts as external cache memory. By way of example, and not limitation, RAM may be available in a variety of forms such as synchronous RAM (DRAM), dynamic RAM (DRAM), synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), double data rate SDRAM (DDR SDRAM), enhanced SDRAM (ESDRAM), synchronous Link DRAM (SLDRAM), and Direct Rambus RAM (DRRAM). The storage devices of the disclosed aspects are intended to comprise, without being limited to, these and other suitable types of memory.
In summary, the invention provides a method for preventing and controlling the risk of the mail wheel, which constructs a quantitative standard accident cause complex network, calculates the severity of the sub-nodes of the target mail wheel transmission network architecture, calculates the potential risk value of the sub-nodes of the mail wheel transmission network architecture based on the severity of the sub-nodes and the domino effect, ensures that the evaluation result is more objective and accurate, and provides method support for grading and controlling the accident risk of the mail wheel sudden public health event.
It should be noted that, for simplicity of description, the foregoing embodiments are all illustrated as a series of acts, but it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited by the order of acts, as some steps may be performed in other order or concurrently in accordance with the present invention. Further, those skilled in the art will also appreciate that the embodiments described in the specification are all preferred embodiments, and that the acts and modules referred to are not necessarily required for the present invention.
In the several embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus may be implemented in other manners. For example, the above-described apparatus embodiments are merely illustrative, such as the above-described division of units, merely a division of logic functions, and there may be additional manners of dividing in actual implementation, such as multiple units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not performed. Alternatively, the coupling or communication connection shown or discussed as being between each other may be an indirect coupling or communication connection between devices or elements via some interfaces, which may be in the form of telecommunications or otherwise.
The units described above as separate components may or may not be physically separate, and components shown as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed over a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.
The above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention, and not for limiting the scope of the present invention. It will be apparent that the described embodiments are merely some, but not all, embodiments of the invention. Based on these embodiments, all other embodiments that may be obtained by one of ordinary skill in the art without inventive effort are within the scope of the invention. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art may still combine, add or delete features of the embodiments of the present invention or make other adjustments according to circumstances without any conflict, so as to obtain different technical solutions without substantially departing from the spirit of the present invention, which also falls within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (4)
1. A method for controlling and preventing risk of a postal wheel, comprising:
acquiring a target mail wheel structure plan, and constructing a target mail wheel propagation network architecture based on the target mail wheel structure plan;
identifying accident influence risk factors of sudden public health events of the mail wheels by adopting a preset association identification rule, identifying the inherent association of the accident influence risk factors, and constructing an accident cause complex network based on the accident influence risk factors;
accident cause complex network based architecture reliability for calculating mail wheel propagation network architecture
-reliability of the architecture +.>
Giving the target mail wheel propagation network architecture node the branch reliability of the node is obtained>
Integrating split node branch reliability
A collection;
constructing an entropy weight-based multi-attribute decision model, evaluating accident risk of the public health event of the mail wheel, and calculating the severity of the sub-nodes of the target mail wheel transmission network architecture
And based on the severity of the minute node +.>
Calculating potential risk value of mailbox propagation network architecture minute node by combining domino effect>
；
Wherein the reliability of the architecture is set
The method for endowing the target mail wheel propagation network architecture node specifically comprises the following steps:
accident cause complex network based architecture reliability for calculating mail wheel propagation network architecture
Architecture reliability is calculated by equation (5)>
；
Wherein the disturbance rejection index
Calculated by equation (4);
propagation matrix loading a mail wheel propagation network architecture
Calculating the branch reliability of the nodes in the mail wheel propagation network architecture through a formula (6)>
；
wherein ,
for normalizing propagation matrix based on complex network, normalizing propagation matrix +.>
Is that;
wherein the segmented node coordinates are expressed as
，/>
For the set of split node connection lines, < >>
，/>
，/>
1，/>
Representing the split node weight parameter, +.>
Representing the number of nodes>
Representing propagation matrix->
Weight constant index of>
The number of the connecting lines is the number of the current partial nodes;
the severity of the calculation target mail wheel propagation network architecture sub-node
Specifically comprises the following steps:
based on the reliability of the branch of the partial node
Computing the severity of the nodes of the propagation network architecture>
；
wherein ,
for the reliability of the split node branch, +.>
For the current node branch propagation contact chaos coefficient, defining the current node branch propagation contact chaos coefficient by adopting a Logistic function, and +.>
And propagating the contact chaos coefficient for the adjacent node branch.
2. A method of controlling risk of a mail wheel as in claim 1 wherein: severity of the and based on the minute node
Calculating potential risk value of mailbox propagation network architecture minute node by combining domino effect>
Specifically comprises the following steps:
determining a neighboring segmented node spacing matrix;
calculating a risk matrix of the adjacent sub-node distance matrix based on the Gaussian probability distribution function;
determining coverage range of the risk matrix based on the risk matrix, and calculating potential risk value of the mail-wheel propagation network architecture sub-node by adopting SSE algorithm
。
3. A mail-wheel risk prevention and control system based on a mail-wheel risk prevention and control method according to any one of claims 1-2, characterized in that: the postal wheel risk prevention and control system specifically comprises:
the plane view acquisition module is used for acquiring a plane view of the target mail wheel structure and constructing a target mail wheel propagation network architecture based on the plane view of the target mail wheel structure;
the complex network construction module adopts a preset association identification rule to identify accident influence risk factors of the mail wheel sudden public health event, identifies the inherent association of the accident influence risk factors and constructs an accident cause complex network based on the accident influence risk factors;
the system comprises a node branch reliability calculation module, a node branch reliability calculation module and a node branch reliability calculation module, wherein the node branch reliability calculation module calculates the architecture reliability of a mail wheel propagation network architecture based on an accident cause complex network, endows the architecture reliability to a target mail wheel propagation network architecture node, obtains the node branch reliability, and integrates a node branch reliability set.
4. A cruise control system as set forth in claim 3, wherein: the postal wheel risk prevention and control system further comprises:
the risk assessment module is used for assessing the accident risk of the public health event of the mail wheel burst by constructing a multi-attribute decision model based on entropy weight, calculating the severity of the nodes of the target mail wheel transmission network architecture, and calculating the potential risk value of the nodes of the mail wheel transmission network architecture based on the severity of the nodes and the domino effect.
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