CN116029554A - Risk assessment method based on parameter correction of limited water area ship risk assessment model - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application discloses a risk assessment method based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model, which comprises the following steps: acquiring real-time track data of ships meeting in a limited water area; determining the relative motion characteristics among meeting ships according to the real-time track data; determining the ship field of the meeting ship based on a preset ship field model; according to the ship field of the meeting ship, giving a collision risk expected value to the meeting ship; correcting model parameters according to expected collision risk values of meeting ships and relative motion characteristics among meeting ships; and determining the collision risk value of the ship based on the model after parameter correction. According to the invention, based on real-time track data of the ship in the limited water area, parameter correction is carried out on the risk assessment model by combining the ship field and the relative motion characteristics among the ships, so that the real-time performance of the model on ship risk assessment is improved; and the space-time safety field of the ship is intuitively displayed in the parameter correction process, and the ship collision risk value can be quantitatively obtained.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of ship collision avoidance risk assessment, in particular to a risk assessment method and device based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model, and a ship collision avoidance method based on ship collision risk assessment.
Background
With the rapid development of the global shipping industry, a large number of ships are put into waterway transportation to meet the transportation demands, sailing water areas are increasingly busy and crowded, conflicts among the ships are more frequent, and water traffic accidents occur. At present, the collision risk of a ship is mostly calculated by adopting a collision risk assessment model, wherein the assessment model mainly comprises a risk function assessment model based on ship maneuverability and a risk assessment model based on a ship safety boundary.
Among risk function assessment models based on vessel maneuverability, risk-driven risk assessment models based on relative speed, relative heading and relative distance are most widely used. However, when the model is used, parameters are corrected according to actual conditions, and then collision risk of the ship can be accurately estimated. When the existing method solves the parameters of the model, the ship is required to have a longer collision prevention distance, so that the model cannot be applied to a limited water area with a limited ship collision prevention distance, and the space-time safety field of the ship meeting process cannot be intuitively displayed in the parameter solving process. In addition, the real-time requirement of the ship collision risk assessment cannot be met because a calculation mode of data post-processing is adopted.
Therefore, a risk assessment method based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model is required to be provided, and the technical problems that the risk assessment cannot be carried out on the limited water area ship based on the model used in the prior art and the collision risk real-time assessment requirement cannot be met are solved.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the foregoing, it is necessary to provide a risk assessment method based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model, which solves the technical problems that the ship collision risk assessment model in the prior art cannot carry out risk assessment on the ship in the limited water area and cannot meet the requirement of real-time collision risk assessment.
In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides a risk assessment method based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model, comprising:
acquiring real-time track data of a ship meeting in a limited water area, and preprocessing the real-time track data;
determining the relative motion characteristics among meeting ships according to the preprocessed real-time track data;
determining the ship field of the meeting ship based on a preset ship field model, and giving a collision risk expected value to the meeting ship according to the ship field of the meeting ship;
correcting parameters of a preset collision prevention risk assessment model according to the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship and the relative motion characteristics between the meeting ships;
and determining a collision risk value in the limited water domain based on a preset collision prevention risk assessment model after parameter correction.
Further, preprocessing the real-time track data includes:
decoding the real-time track data to obtain time information, heading information and position information of the ship;
removing real-time track data with abnormal course information and position information, and sequencing the real-time track data according to the time information;
and interpolating the sequenced real-time track data to obtain the preprocessed real-time track data.
Further, the preset collision avoidance risk assessment model is a risk passing collision risk assessment model constructed based on the relative distance, the relative navigational speed and the relative heading of the ship, and is expressed as follows:
Risk(Rd，Rv，Rc)＝(l1×Rd -1 XRv) (l 2sin (Rc) + sin (2 Rc)
Wherein Rd is the relative distance, rv is the relative speed, rc is the relative heading, l 1 、l 2 、l 3 Is the model parameter to be corrected.
Further, correcting parameters of a preset collision avoidance risk assessment model according to the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship and the relative motion characteristic between the meeting ships, including:
determination of l using least squares 1 、l 2 、l 3 A relationship between;
according to the relative motion characteristics and l between the meeting ships 1 、l 2 、l 3 The relation between them is obtained 1 、l 2 、l 3 Is a value of (a).
Further, according to the ship field of the meeting ship, the collision risk expected value is given to the meeting ship, including:
determining the ship domain distance between meeting ships according to the ship domain of the meeting ships;
when the ship field spacing accords with a first preset condition, giving the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship as a first expected risk value;
and when the ship domain spacing accords with a second preset condition, giving the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship as a second expected risk value.
Further, the preset ship domain model is a quaternary ship domain model, and the quaternary ship domain model of any ship is expressed as:
wherein R is t，fore 、R t，aft Ship domain for ship at time tLongitudinal front and rear radii R t，starb 、R t，port For the transverse left and right radiuses of the ship field of the ship at the moment A, sngx is an abscissa sign function, sgy is an ordinate sign function, x is an abscissa value, y is an ordinate value, and m is an adjusting parameter.
Further, the relative motion characteristics between the vessels include: relative heading, relative speed, relative distance, vessel nearest meeting distance and vessel nearest meeting time.
The invention also provides a risk assessment device based on the parameter correction of the limited water area ship risk assessment model, which comprises:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring real-time track data of ships meeting in the limited water area and preprocessing the real-time track data;
the motion characteristic determining module is used for determining the relative motion characteristics among meeting ships according to the preprocessed real-time track data;
the risk expected value determining module is used for determining the ship field of the meeting ship based on a preset ship field model and giving a collision risk expected value to the meeting ship according to the ship field of the meeting ship;
the parameter correction module is used for correcting parameters of a preset collision avoidance risk assessment model according to the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship and the relative motion characteristics between the meeting ships;
the risk determination module is used for determining a collision risk value in the limited water domain based on a preset collision prevention risk assessment model after parameter correction.
The invention also provides a ship collision prevention method based on ship collision risk assessment, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring real-time track data of ships meeting in a limited water area;
determining a meeting scene of the ship according to a preset meeting scene dividing rule and the real-time track data;
obtaining a ship collision risk value based on any risk assessment method based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model according to the technical scheme;
and determining avoidance measures of the ship according to the meeting scene of the ship and the collision risk value of the ship.
Further, determining the meeting scene of the ship according to the preset meeting scene dividing rule and the real-time track data, including:
according to the real-time track data, obtaining the relative motion characteristics of the ships;
determining meeting scenes between every two ships according to a preset meeting scene dividing rule and relative motion characteristics of the ships;
wherein, the meeting scene comprises a cross meeting scene, a overtaking meeting scene and a meeting scene.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: firstly, acquiring real-time track data of ships meeting in a limited water area, and determining relative motion characteristics among the ships according to the real-time track data; secondly, determining the ship field of the meeting ship, and giving a collision risk expected value to the meeting ship according to the ship field; thirdly, correcting parameters of a preset collision prevention risk assessment model according to the expected collision risk value and the relative motion characteristics between meeting ships; and finally, determining the collision risk value of the ship in the limited water area by using the evaluation model after parameter correction. The method is based on the real-time track data of the ship in the limited water area, so that the model can be suitable for real-time collision risk assessment in the navigation process of the ship in the limited water area, and the defect of real-time performance of an assessment model obtained by a parameter correction method based on data post-processing is overcome; according to the method, expected collision risk values are determined according to the relative motion characteristics between the ship field and the ship, the safety field of the ship can be intuitively displayed in the process of solving model parameters, the collision risk of the ship is accurately estimated through a risk estimation model after parameter correction, the collision risk values are quantitatively given, and intelligent collision prevention decision support can be provided for a new generation of shipping system.
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FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of a risk assessment method based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of an embodiment of a shape of a field of a ship according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic view of an embodiment of the present invention for providing a marine domain and a relative position of a marine vessel;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of a risk assessment device based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
Preferred embodiments of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, which form a part hereof, and together with the description serve to explain the principles of the invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
Before the description of the embodiments, the inventive concepts of the present application will be first described.
In the prior art, the ship collision prevention risk can be calculated through a risk function evaluation model based on ship maneuverability, and a specific one-dimensional risk value can be given by the risk function based on the ship maneuverability, but the space-time safety field of the ship meeting process cannot be intuitively given. In a limited water area, a ship collision prevention risk model mostly adopts a risk passing collision risk assessment model based on a risk function of ship mobility. When solving the parameters of the model, the assumed conditions are: the expected value of the risk of collision at a relative ship distance of 6n mile (sea) is equal to 5 and the expected value of the risk of collision at a relative ship distance of 1n mile is equal to 100. However, the parameter solving process based on the above assumed conditions is not suitable for the limited water area, because in the limited water area, the whole channel length may not be 6n mils, the ship collision avoidance distance cannot meet the condition of the model parameter correction, and the model cannot accurately estimate the collision risk of the ship in the limited water area because the model parameter is not corrected.
According to the parameter correction method based on the ship avoidance starting and stopping points, the risk of running through the collision risk assessment model can be applied to a limited water area by assuming that the collision risk value of the collision avoidance ending point is 0. However, the avoidance cut-off point is known after the avoidance is finished, is a historical data avoidance process traceability solving method, and cannot meet the collision risk calculation requirement in the real-time navigation process of the ship.
According to the analysis, when the dangerous driving collision risk assessment model is used, the model parameter correction is corrected in a data post-processing mode in the application scene of the limited water area, so that the model cannot be suitable for the use scene of real-time risk assessment of the ship in the limited water area.
The invention provides a risk assessment method based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model, which is based on real-time track data of ships in a limited water area, determines a collision risk expected value according to relative motion characteristics between the ship field and the ships, further corrects parameters of a dangerous driving-over collision risk assessment model in real time, can intuitively display the space-time safety field of the ships in the parameter correction process, enables the model after parameter correction to be suitable for real-time collision risk assessment in the navigation process of the ships in the limited water area, and quantitatively gives out the ship collision risk value by utilizing the model.
The embodiment of the invention provides a risk assessment method based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model, as shown in fig. 1, fig. 1 is a flow diagram of the risk assessment method based on parameter correction of the limited water area ship risk assessment model, which comprises the following steps:
step S101: acquiring real-time track data of a ship meeting in a limited water area, and preprocessing the real-time track data;
step S102: determining the relative motion characteristics among meeting ships according to the preprocessed real-time track data;
step S103: determining the ship field of the meeting ship based on a preset ship field model, and giving a collision risk expected value to the meeting ship according to the ship field of the meeting ship;
step S104: correcting parameters of a preset collision prevention risk assessment model according to the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship and the relative motion characteristics between the meeting ships;
step S105: and determining a collision risk value of the ship in the limited water area based on the preset collision prevention risk assessment model after parameter correction.
According to the risk assessment method based on the parameter correction of the limited water area ship risk assessment model, firstly, real-time track data of ships meeting in a limited water area are obtained, and relative motion characteristics among ships are determined according to the real-time track data; secondly, determining the ship field of the meeting ship, and giving a collision risk expected value to the meeting ship according to the ship field; thirdly, correcting parameters of a preset collision prevention risk assessment model according to the expected collision risk value and the relative motion characteristics between meeting ships; and finally, determining the collision risk value of the ship in the limited water area by using the evaluation model after parameter correction. The method of the embodiment is based on the real-time track data of the ship in the limited water area, so that the model can be suitable for real-time collision risk assessment in the navigation process of the ship in the limited water area, and the defects of an assessment model obtained by a parameter correction method based on data post-processing are overcome; according to the method, expected collision risk values are determined according to the relative motion characteristics between the ship field and the ship, the space-time safety field of the ship can be intuitively displayed in the process of solving model parameters, the collision risk of the ship is accurately estimated through a risk estimation model after parameter correction, the collision risk values are quantitatively given, intelligent collision prevention decision support can be provided for a new generation of shipping system, and the method has great potential in the aspects of ship safety supervision and traffic supervision.
As a preferred embodiment, in step S101, preprocessing the real-time trajectory data includes:
decoding the real-time track data to obtain time information, heading information and position information of the ship;
removing real-time track data with abnormal course information and position information, and sequencing the real-time track data according to the time information;
and interpolating the sequenced real-time track data to obtain the preprocessed real-time track data.
As a specific embodiment, the real-time track data is AIS data, the AIS data is decoded to obtain ship time information and position information, the ships in the preset limited water area (such as 12 sea-inside defined radius range) are searched in the same period, the ships in the limited water area are taken as meeting ships, and the associated AIS tracks of the meeting ships are intercepted. It should be noted that the radius range can be determined according to the actual sailing situation and the water traffic rules.
Because the track of the ship is recorded by adopting longitude and latitude, in order to facilitate the interpolation processing of the subsequent track, longitude and latitude coordinates (B, L) are required to be converted into mercator projection coordinates (x, y), and the conversion formula is as follows:
wherein e represents the ellipsoid first eccentricity; b (B) 0 Representing a reference dimension of the ink card holder projection; n (N) 0 A radius of curvature of a mortise ring representing an external ellipsoid of a reference latitude; r is (r) 0 The radius of the pick turns representing the reference latitude.
The track points are sequentially arranged according to the time sequence, and then the track is interpolated, so that ship motion information of each ship at each moment in the meeting process is obtained.
For meeting ships A and B, t is based on i And t i+1 Coordinates of sampling points of (a)
The vessel a coordinate at any time t during the period is (x) A，t ，y A，t ) The ship B coordinate is (x B，t ，y B，t ) The calculation formula is as follows:
the track points of the ship A and the ship B after interpolation processing are respectively as follows: { (x) A，1 ，y A，1 )，(x A，2 ，y A，2 )，…，(x A，t ，y A，t )，…，}、{(x B，1 ，y B，1 )，(x B，2 ，y B，2 )，…，(x B，t ，y B，t ) …, ship A heading c A The navigational speed of ship A is v A B ship course is c B The navigational speed of the ship B is v B 。
As a preferred embodiment, in step S102, the relative motion characteristics between the vessels include: relative heading, relative speed, relative distance, vessel nearest meeting distance and vessel nearest meeting time.
As a specific example, the relative motion parameters between the vessels are mainly Rd, rc, rv, DCPA, TCPA. Specific:
rd can be found by real-time coordinates of the ship, such as: the relative distance between the vessels at times t-1 and t can be calculated by:
the relative heading Rc is calculated based on the heading vector lines of the ship A and the ship B, and the moments t-1 and t are taken as examples, and the heading vector lines of the ship A and the ship B are as follows: (x) A，t -x A，t-1 ，y A，t -y A，t-1 )，(x B，t -x B，t-1 ，y B，t -y B，t-1 ) The relative heading vector line of A, B ship is (x) B，t -x B，t-1 -(x A，t -x A，t-1 )，y B，t -y B，t-1 -(y A，t -y A，t-1 ))。
The relative heading Rc is calculated as:
the calculation formula of the relative navigational speed Rv is:
taking the moment A ship t as an example, the angle between the heading of the ship A and Rd is alpha, and the angle between Rd and Rv is beta. The calculation formulas of the latest meeting distance DCPA and the latest meeting time TCPA of two ships are as follows:
as a preferred embodiment, in step S103, the preset ship domain model is a quaternary ship domain model, and the quaternary ship domain model of any ship is expressed as:
wherein R is t，fore 、R t，aft For the longitudinal front and rear radius of the ship field of the ship at the moment A, R t，starb 、R t，port For the transverse left and right radiuses of the ship field of the ship at the moment A, the sgx is an abscissa symbol function, the sgy is an ordinate symbol function, the x is an abscissa value, the y is an ordinate value, and the m is an adjusting parameter.
The four-element ship field fully considers factors such as collision prevention rules, ship operability, ship size, ship dynamic characteristics and the like, so that the four-element ship field is selected as a safety standard of a ship collision scene to carry out parameter correction on a collision risk model.
As a specific example, selecting a 2-fold range that would be violated by a party in the quaternary region of a ship as a safety standard, the risk of collision between two ships can be considered to be great as long as the field of the ship would be violated.
A ship quaternary ship field calculation formula and process are as follows:
wherein R is A，t，fore R is A，t，aft For the longitudinal front and rear radius of the ship field of the ship at the moment A, R A，t，starb ， RA，t，port Is the transverse left and right radius of the ship field of the ship at the moment A, L A Is the ship length A, v A，t The speed of the ship is the time A at t; k (k) A，t，1 For the ship's roll-back primary diameter coefficient at time t, k A，t，2 And (5) the ship pitch coefficient at the time t.
The A ship quaternary ship field is:
the calculation formula and the process of the ship quaternary ship field are as follows:
wherein R is B，t，fore ，R B，t，aft For the longitudinal front and rear radius of the ship field of the ship at the moment B, R B，t，starb ，R B，t，port Is the transverse left and right radius of the ship field of the ship at the moment B, L B Is the ship length of B ships, v B，t The speed of the ship at time t is B; k (k) B，t，1 For the coefficient of the ship's initial diameter, k, at time B B，t，2 And the ship advance distance coefficient is t time B.
The quaternary ship field of the ship B is as follows:
the ship domain model can change the domain shape by adjusting the value of the parameter m so as to be suitable for a limited water area.
As a specific example, when m=2 (the shape of the ship field is an ellipse determined by 4 radii in every two directions, and 1/4 of the ellipse is formed irregularly) is adopted as a standard for measuring whether the ship is safe or not through calculation of AIS actual data. As shown in fig. 2, fig. 2 shows a schematic view of the shape of the field of ships.
As a preferred embodiment, according to the ship domain of the meeting ship, the meeting ship is given a collision risk expected value, including:
determining the ship domain distance between meeting ships according to the ship domain of the meeting ships;
when the ship field spacing accords with a first preset condition, giving the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship as a first expected risk value;
and when the ship domain spacing accords with a second preset condition, giving the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship as a second expected risk value.
It should be noted that, the first and second preset conditions in this embodiment may be adjusted according to the actual sailing situation and traffic rules of the restricted water area.
As a specific embodiment, by analyzing the whole track section of the meeting process of the ship in the limited water area, the ship field can be expanded by 2 times to be used as a safety boundary, so that the ship can be ensured to pass through the safety boundary of the ship field, and the formation of an urgent situation can be reduced. Setting the first preset condition to be 2 times of the sum of the fields of the meeting ships, and setting a first risk expected value to be 5; the second preset condition is the sum of the areas of meeting ships, and the second risk expected value is 100. Namely: when the relative distance of the A, B ship is 2 times of the sum of the boundary lengths of the A, B ship fields, the ship collision risk value is low, and the first risk expected value is fixed to be 5; when the relative distance of the A, B ship is equal to the sum of the A, B ship domain boundary lengths, namely, the ship domain is infringed, the ship is in conflict, the ship collision risk value is high, and the second risk expected value is fixed to be 100. As shown in fig. 3, fig. 3 shows a schematic view of the field of ships and the relative positions of the ships.
E (Risk (Rd, rv, rc)) represents the expected value of collision Risk when the ship domain begins to infringe, with a distance between ships that is twice the ship domain distance. Then:
it should be noted that: equation (24) indicates that any ship meeting scene satisfies
Then Risk (Rd, rv, rc) is equal to 5, i.e. all fulfils
The Risk expectation E (Risk (Rd, rv, rc)) of the scene of (a) is 5. Any ship meeting scene satisfies +.>
Risk (Rd, rv, rc) is equal to 100, i.e. all fulfils
The Risk expectation E (Risk (Rd, rv, rc)) of the scene of (a) is 100.
As a preferred embodiment, in step S104, the preset collision avoidance risk assessment model is a risk assessment model for constructing a risk-over-collision based on the relative distance, relative speed, and relative heading of the ship, which is expressed as:
Risk(Rd,Rv,Rc)＝(l 1 ×Rd -1 ×Rv)(l 2 sin(Rc)+l 3 sin(2Rc)) (25)
wherein Rd is the relative distance, rv is the relative speed, rc is the relative heading, l 1 、l 2 、l 3 Is the model parameter to be corrected. The collision risk is inversely proportional to the relative distance, proportional to the relative navigational speed, and trigonometric function relation to the relative navigational speed.
In order to enable the risk assessment model constructed based on the relative distance, relative navigational speed and relative heading to be used in a limited water area, the parameters of the model need to be corrected.
As a preferred embodiment, correcting parameters of a preset collision avoidance risk assessment model according to the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship and the relative motion characteristic between the meeting ship includes:
determination of l using least squares 1 、l 2 、l 3 A relationship between;
according to the relative motion characteristics and l between the meeting ships 1 、l 2 、l 3 The relation between them is obtained 1 、l 2 、l 3 Is a value of (a).
As a specific embodiment, the relationship between parameters is specifically determined by using a least square method:
the method is a method for analyzing the relation between parameters by solving partial derivatives of the parameters and constructing a function equation, and the expansion of the method is as follows:
equations (27) - (29) are nonlinear equations, which are satisfied when the ith vessel encounters a scene according to equation (24)
Risk(Rd，Rv，Rc) i Equal to 5, or satisfy->
Risk(Rd,Rv,Rc) i Equal to 100, can only obtain l 2 /l 3 Ratio, without being able to calculate the parameter l 2 And/l 3 Individual values.
Therefore, assume l 2 =1, based on the risk of traveling through collision risk assessment model formula (25) and the ship relative motion characteristic data pair l 1 And l 3 These two parameters solve the equation to yield parameter l 1 And l 3 As shown in table 1, risk is a collision Risk expected value in table 1.
Table 1 calculation of relative motion parameters of vessel 1 and vessel 2 and correction results of collision risk model parameters
Furthermore, the risk quantitative calculation can be carried out through the formula (25) to obtain a specific risk value, so that the intelligent collision avoidance decision support is provided for a new generation of shipping systems, and the method has great potential in the aspects of ship safety supervision and traffic supervision.
In order to provide guidance for collision avoidance measures to be taken by a ship by using the risk assessment result, the embodiment of the invention also provides a ship collision avoidance method based on ship collision risk assessment, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring real-time track data of ships meeting in a limited water area;
determining a meeting scene of the ship according to a preset meeting scene dividing rule and the real-time track data;
obtaining a ship collision risk value based on any risk assessment method based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model according to the technical scheme;
and determining avoidance measures of the ship according to the meeting scene of the ship and the collision risk value of the ship.
As a preferred embodiment, determining the meeting scene of the ship according to the preset meeting scene dividing rule and the real-time track data includes:
according to the real-time track data, obtaining the relative motion characteristics of the ships;
determining meeting scenes between every two ships according to a preset meeting scene dividing rule and relative motion characteristics of the ships;
wherein, the meeting scene comprises a cross meeting scene, a overtaking meeting scene and a meeting scene.
As a specific embodiment, the preset meeting scene division rule is formulated based on the international maritime collision avoidance rule, the ship navigation habit and the ship automatic collision avoidance method. The specific conditions for identifying the ship meeting are set as follows:
wherein, encounter represents a meeting condition; θ represents the relative position between vessels, and if 6 ° < θ <112.5 ° or 224.5 ° < θ <354 ° on the basis of satisfying the formula (30), the meeting situation of the two vessels is a crossing meeting; if 112.5 degrees < theta <224.5 degrees, the meeting situation of the two ships is overtaking; if 0 ° < θ <6 ° or 354 ° < θ <360 °, then the meeting situation of the two vessels is a meeting.
As a specific embodiment, determining the avoidance measure of the ship according to the meeting scene of the ship and the collision risk value of the ship specifically includes:
normalizing the ship collision risk value, and determining that the ship collision risk value is low risk when the ship collision risk value is smaller than 0.333; when the risk value is between 0.333 and 0.667, the collision is possible, the ship is required to be cared for at any time, and sailing carefully; when the collision is more than 0.667, the collision is high possibility, the ship needs to take avoidance measures immediately, the collision is different in different meeting scenes, and the avoidance measures are different.
For example, measures are required for both vessels in a meeting scene, and the crossing meeting vessel should avoid the vessel on the starboard side of the vessel for the vessel, and the vessel should avoid the overtaking vessel.
Also to be described is: the collision risk preset value adopting the avoidance measures can be set or adjusted according to the actual application scene and the experience value.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a risk assessment device based on the parameter correction of the limited water area ship risk assessment model, as shown in fig. 4, the risk assessment device 400 based on the parameter correction of the limited water area ship risk assessment model comprises:
the data acquisition module 401 is configured to acquire real-time track data of a ship in a limited water area, and perform preprocessing on the real-time track data;
a motion characteristic determining module 402, configured to determine a relative motion characteristic between the meeting vessels according to the preprocessed real-time trajectory data;
a risk expected value determining module 403, configured to determine a ship domain of the meeting ship based on a preset ship domain model, and assign a collision risk expected value to the meeting ship according to the ship domain of the meeting ship;
the parameter correction module 404 is configured to correct parameters of a preset collision avoidance risk assessment model according to the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship and the relative motion characteristic between the meeting ships;
the risk determining module 405 is configured to determine a collision risk value of the ship in the restricted water area based on the parameter corrected preset collision avoidance risk assessment model.
The invention discloses a risk assessment method based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model, which comprises the steps of firstly, acquiring real-time track data of ships meeting in a limited water area, and determining relative motion characteristics among ships according to the real-time track data; secondly, determining the ship field of the meeting ship, and giving a collision risk expected value to the meeting ship according to the ship field; thirdly, correcting parameters of a preset collision prevention risk assessment model according to the expected collision risk value and the relative motion characteristics between meeting ships; and finally, determining the collision risk value of the ship in the limited water area by using the evaluation model after parameter correction.
The method is based on real-time track data of the ship in the limited water area, so that the model can be suitable for real-time collision risk assessment in the navigation process of the ship in the limited water area, and the defect of an assessment model obtained by a parameter correction method based on data post-processing is overcome; according to the method, expected collision risk values are determined according to the relative motion characteristics between the ship field and the ship, the space-time safety field of the ship can be intuitively displayed in the process of solving model parameters, the collision risk of the ship is accurately estimated through a risk estimation model after parameter correction, the collision risk values are quantitatively given, intelligent collision prevention decision support can be provided for a new generation of shipping system, and the method has great potential in the aspects of ship safety supervision and traffic supervision.
The present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned embodiments, and any changes or substitutions that can be easily understood by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present invention are intended to be included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. The risk assessment method based on the parameter correction of the limited water area ship risk assessment model is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring real-time track data of a ship meeting in a limited water area, and preprocessing the real-time track data;
determining the relative motion characteristics among meeting ships according to the preprocessed real-time track data;
determining the ship field of the meeting ship based on a preset ship field model, and giving a collision risk expected value to the meeting ship according to the ship field of the meeting ship;
correcting parameters of a preset collision prevention risk assessment model according to the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship and the relative motion characteristics between the meeting ships;
and determining a collision risk value of the ship in the limited water area based on the preset collision prevention risk assessment model after parameter correction.
2. The risk assessment method based on limited water vessel risk assessment model parameter correction according to claim 1, wherein preprocessing the real-time trajectory data comprises:
decoding the real-time track data to obtain time information, heading information and position information of the ship;
removing real-time track data with abnormal course information and position information, and sequencing the real-time track data according to the time information;
and interpolating the sequenced real-time track data to obtain the preprocessed real-time track data.
3. The risk assessment method based on the parameter correction of the limited water area ship risk assessment model according to claim 1, wherein the preset collision avoidance risk assessment model is a risk passing collision risk assessment model constructed based on the relative distance, relative navigational speed and relative heading of the ship, and is expressed as:
Risk(Rd,Rv,Rc)＝(l 1 ×Rd -1 ×Rv)(l 2 sin(Rc)+l 3 sin(2Rc))
wherein Rd is the relative distance, rv is the relative speed, rc is the relative heading, l 1 、l 2 、l 3 Is the model parameter to be corrected.
4. A risk assessment method based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model according to claim 3, wherein correcting parameters of a preset collision avoidance risk assessment model according to a collision risk expected value of the meeting ship and a relative motion characteristic between the meeting ships comprises:
determination of l using least squares 1 、l 2 、l 3 A relationship between;
according to the relative motion characteristics and l between the meeting ships 1 、l 2 、l 3 The relation between them is obtained 1 、l 2 、l 3 Is a value of (a).
5. The risk assessment method based on the parameter correction of the risk assessment model of the restricted water area ship according to claim 1, wherein the collision risk expected value is given to the meeting ship according to the ship field of the meeting ship, comprising:
determining the ship domain distance between meeting ships according to the ship domain of the meeting ships;
when the ship field spacing accords with a first preset condition, giving the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship as a first expected risk value;
and when the ship domain spacing accords with a second preset condition, giving the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship as a second expected risk value.
6. The risk assessment method based on the parameter correction of the limited water area ship risk assessment model according to claim 1, wherein the preset ship domain model is a quaternary ship domain model, and the quaternary ship domain model of any ship is represented as:
wherein R is t，fore 、R t，aft At time tLongitudinal front and rear radius of ship field of ship A, R t，starb 、R t，port For the transverse left and right radiuses of the ship field of the ship at the moment A, the sgx is an abscissa symbol function, the sgy is an ordinate symbol function, the x is an abscissa value, the y is an ordinate value, and the m is an adjusting parameter.
7. A risk assessment method based on parameter correction of a limited water vessel risk assessment model according to claim 1, wherein the characteristics of the relative motion between vessels comprise: relative heading, relative speed, relative distance, vessel nearest meeting distance and vessel nearest meeting time.
8. A risk assessment device based on parameter correction of a limited water area ship risk assessment model, comprising:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring real-time track data of ships meeting in the limited water area and preprocessing the real-time track data;
the motion characteristic determining module is used for determining the relative motion characteristics among meeting ships according to the preprocessed real-time track data;
the risk expected value determining module is used for determining the ship field of the meeting ship based on a preset ship field model and giving a collision risk expected value to the meeting ship according to the ship field of the meeting ship;
the parameter correction module is used for correcting parameters of a preset collision avoidance risk assessment model according to the expected collision risk value of the meeting ship and the relative motion characteristics between the meeting ships;
and the risk determining module is used for determining the collision risk value of the ship in the limited water area based on the preset collision prevention risk assessment model after parameter correction.
9. A ship collision prevention method based on ship collision risk assessment is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring real-time track data of ships meeting in a limited water area;
determining a meeting scene of the ship according to a preset meeting scene dividing rule and the real-time track data;
obtaining a ship collision risk value based on the risk assessment method based on the parameter correction of the limited water area ship risk assessment model according to any one of claims 1-7;
and determining avoidance measures of the ship according to the meeting scene of the ship and the collision risk value of the ship.
10. The ship collision avoidance method based on the ship collision risk assessment according to claim 9, wherein determining a meeting scene of a ship according to a preset meeting scene division rule and the real-time trajectory data comprises:
according to the real-time track data, obtaining the relative motion characteristics of the ships;
determining meeting scenes between every two ships according to a preset meeting scene dividing rule and relative motion characteristics of the ships;
wherein, the meeting scene comprises a cross meeting scene, a overtaking meeting scene and a meeting scene.
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