CN115967120A - 220 KV power grid network access substation judgment method and capacity-to-load ratio calculation method - Google Patents
220 KV power grid network access substation judgment method and capacity-to-load ratio calculation method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for judging a 220 KV power grid online substation, which comprises the steps of acquiring substation data information of a 220 KV regional power grid; calculating the ratio of the on-grid electric quantity and the off-grid electric quantity of the transformer substation and the probability of the occurrence of the on-grid new energy or conventional power supply electric power; and judging the online substation according to the data information and the selected maximum load time period. The invention also discloses a capacity-to-load ratio calculation method comprising the 220 KV power grid online substation judgment method. The method comprehensively considers different factors to judge whether the transformer substation belongs to an online transformer substation; therefore, the invention has high reliability, good accuracy and higher efficiency; meanwhile, the invention can provide accurate data reference for the capacity-to-load ratio calculation process, so that the capacity-to-load ratio calculation process is more accurate and reliable.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of electrical automation, and particularly relates to a 220 kV power grid online substation judgment method and a capacity-to-load ratio calculation method.
Background
With the development of economic technology and the improvement of living standard of people, electric energy becomes essential secondary energy in production and life of people, and brings endless convenience to production and life of people. Therefore, ensuring stable and reliable supply of electric energy is one of the most important tasks of the power system.
At present, with the rapid development of a new energy power generation system, the new energy power generation system is merged into a 110 kv and below voltage level power grid in a large scale, in a new energy enrichment area, the large-scale new energy grid connection leads to new energy being sent to an upper level power grid through a 220 kv transformer substation main transformer, and at the moment, the transformer substation mainly undertakes the task of sending new energy power, but does not perform a load supply and take effect. Therefore, when the load supply capacity of a region is analyzed, the grid capacity-load ratio under the 220 kV region power grid needs to be calculated, namely the 220 kV transformer capacity under the power grid at the calculation moment of the region needs to be reasonably determined. Therefore, how to accurately eliminate the transformer substations which mainly bear the power-up task in the 220 kV transformer substations, namely, the transformer substations on the 220 kV power grid are judged, and the method has very important significance for accurately calculating the capacitance-to-load ratio of the 220 kV lower grid in the area.
However, in the process of calculating the grid capacity-load ratio of the 220 kv area power grid, the special situation is not considered, that is, a substation mainly bearing a power-up task in the 220 kv substation is eliminated, or the substation on which the 220 kv power grid is on the grid is judged. Therefore, the prior art does not judge the 220 KV power grid network access substation; therefore, the existing capacity-load ratio calculation scheme can cause that the calculated lower grid capacity-load ratio is too large or too small, and the problems of the power grid in the aspect of power supply cannot be truly and accurately reflected.
Disclosure of Invention
One of the purposes of the invention is to provide a 220 kV power grid online substation judgment method which is high in reliability, good in accuracy and high in efficiency.
The invention also aims to provide a capacity-to-load ratio calculation method comprising the 220 KV power grid online substation judgment method.
The invention provides a method for judging a 220 KV power grid online substation, which comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring transformer substation data information of a 220 KV regional power grid;
s2, calculating the ratio of the on-grid electric quantity and the off-grid electric quantity of the transformer substation and the probability of the occurrence of the electric power of the new energy or the conventional power supply according to the data information acquired in the step S1;
and S3, judging the online transformer substation according to the data information obtained by calculation in the step S2 and the selected maximum load time period.
Step S2, calculating a ratio of the power-on capacity to the power-off capacity of the substation and a probability of occurrence of power of an up-transmission new energy or a conventional power supply according to the data information acquired in step S1, specifically including the following steps:
based on 8760 operating hour data of the last year of the current transformer substation, the annual internet surfing electric quantity of the last year of the current transformer substation is counted
P i Is less than or equal to 0 and the electric quantity of the lower net>
P i > 0, wherein W up For the power on line, Δ T is the length of the time period, P i For the power of the substation at the i hour, and P i Less than or equal to 0 represents the power transmission on the transformer substation, P i The load is normally supplied and carried by the transformer substation when the load is more than 0;
calculating the ratio eta of the on-grid electric quantity and the off-grid electric quantity of the current transformer substation as
Calculating the probability p of sending new energy or conventional power supply power to the current transformer substation as
P i Is less than or equal to 0 and is epsilon (1,35040), wherein N up,year The number of loads less than 0 in the current transformer substation operation data all year round, N year The total number of the current substation operation data points in the whole year.
Step S3, the determining of the networked substation according to the data information calculated in step S2 and the selected maximum load period specifically includes the following steps:
judging the online substation according to the ratio eta of the online electric quantity and the offline electric quantity of the substation obtained in the step S2 and the probability p of new energy or conventional power supply power supplied by the substation;
selecting a maximum load time period, and calculating net online electricity quantity of a current transformer substation in the maximum load time period, probability of power transmission of the transformer substation in the maximum load time period and a ratio of maximum power transmission and maximum power transmission in the maximum load time period so as to judge the online transformer substation;
and when the installed capacity of a power supply accessed by the current transformer substation is larger than or equal to the maximum load of the current transformer substation, judging the online transformer substation according to the relationship between the load and the maximum load of the transformer substation and the relationship between the regional load and the regional maximum load in the maximum load period.
And judging the online substation according to the ratio eta of the online electric quantity and the offline electric quantity of the substation obtained in the step S2 and the probability p of new energy or conventional power supply electric power supplied to the substation, and specifically comprising the following steps:
the following rules are adopted for judgment:
if eta is more than or equal to 1 and p is more than 0.5, the annual network access electric quantity of the current transformer substation is larger than the network access electric quantity, and the annual network access operation probability is larger than the network access operation probability, the current transformer substation is judged to be the network access transformer substation;
and if eta is less than 1 or eta is more than 1 and p is less than 0.5, judging that the current transformer substation is a network-off transformer substation.
The method comprises the following steps of selecting a maximum load time interval, and calculating the net online electric quantity of the current transformer substation in the maximum load time interval, the probability of the power transmission of the transformer substation in the maximum load time interval and the ratio of the maximum power transmission and the maximum power transmission in the maximum load time interval, so as to judge the online transformer substation, and specifically comprises the following steps:
selecting the maximum load, and taking the time of X days before and after the maximum demarcation point, wherein the total time of 2X days is taken as the maximum load section; x is a set real number;
calculating net online electric quantity W of the current transformer substation in the maximum load period N,up Is composed of
Wherein P is i The power of the transformer substation at the ith hour;
calculating the probability p of power transmission on the transformer substation in the maximum load period as
P i Less than or equal to 0; wherein N is up The number of data less than 0 representsTransmitting power to a transformer substation; n is the number of data points collected by the transformer substation in the maximum load period;
calculating the ratio alpha of the maximum uplink power to the maximum downlink power in the maximum load period as
Wherein P is i,up,max The maximum power is transmitted to the transformer substation in the maximum load period; p i,down,max The maximum power is sent down to the transformer substation in the maximum load period;
the following rules are adopted for judgment:
if p > 0.5 and W N,up If the current substation is less than 0, judging that the current substation is an online substation;
if p is more than 0.5 and alpha is more than 1, judging that the current transformer substation is an online transformer substation.
When the installed capacity of a power supply accessed to the current transformer substation is greater than or equal to the maximum load of the current transformer substation, judging the online transformer substation according to the relationship between the load and the maximum load of the transformer substation and the relationship between the regional load and the regional maximum load in the maximum load period, and specifically comprising the following steps of:
acquiring the load P of the current region in the maximum load period based on historical operation data load,j Greater than the regional maximum load P load,max Time of Y%, P load,j ≥0.85P load,max ,j∈(1,N 1 ) (ii) a Then, the load P of the current transformer substation at the corresponding jth moment is obtained j And obtaining a load P j Relation to 10% of the maximum load of the substation, P j 0 or less or P j ≤0.1P load,station,max ,j∈(1,N 2 ) (ii) a Wherein, P load,station,max The maximum load available for the current substation; n is a radical of hydrogen 1 For obtaining the load P of the current area in the maximum load period load,j Greater than the regional maximum load P load,max Y% of the time; n is a radical of hydrogen 2 To satisfy P j 0 or less or P j ≤0.1P load,station,max The number of data of (2);
calculating a probability p of
P j 0 or less or P j ≤0.1P load,station,max ；
The following rules are adopted for judgment:
and if p is greater than 0.5, judging that the current transformer substation is an online transformer substation.
The invention also provides a capacity-to-load ratio calculation method comprising the 220 KV power grid online substation judgment method, which specifically comprises the following steps:
A. the online substations in the area are scheduled by adopting the method for judging the online substations of the 220 KV power grid;
B. when the capacity-to-load ratio of the 220 kV lower network in the area is calculated, the capacity of the online substation obtained in the step A is removed;
C. and C, calculating the off-grid capacity-load ratio of the 220 KV area power grid according to the data information obtained in the step B.
And B, when the network capacity-to-load ratio of the 220 kV lower network in the area is calculated, the capacity of the online substation obtained in the step A is removed, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
removing the capacity of the online substation obtained in the step A;
when the network capacity-load ratio of a 220 kV lower network in a calculation area is calculated, transformer substations which mainly comprise high-energy-consumption users are removed; the transformer substation mainly using high-energy-consumption users comprises transformer substations using iron-making industry and electrolytic aluminum industry as users.
The invention provides a method for judging a 220 KV power grid online substation and a capacity-to-load ratio calculation method, which consider the aspects of online electric quantity, offline electric quantity, the ratio of the online electric quantity to the offline electric quantity of the substation all the year round, the probability of transmitting new energy or conventional power supply electric power on the substation, the condition and the probability of transmitting the electric power on the substation in the maximum load period of the area, the condition of transmitting the electric power on the substation when the area load is more than 85% of the area maximum load when the installed capacity of the power supply accessed by the substation is more than or equal to the maximum load of the substation, the load characteristic constraint of the substation mainly including high-energy-consumption users and the like, and comprehensively consider different factors to judge whether the substation belongs to an online substation; therefore, the invention has high reliability, good accuracy and higher efficiency; meanwhile, the invention can provide accurate data reference for the capacity-to-load ratio calculation process, so that the capacity-to-load ratio calculation process is more accurate and reliable.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the determination method of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of a method of calculating a capacity-to-capacity ratio according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the method of the present invention: the invention provides a method for judging a 220 KV power grid online substation, which comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring transformer substation data information of a 220 KV area power grid;
s2, calculating the ratio of the on-grid electric quantity and the off-grid electric quantity of the transformer substation and the probability of the occurrence of the electric power of the new energy or the conventional power supply according to the data information acquired in the step S1; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
based on 8760 operation hour data of the last year of the current transformer substation, the annual online electric quantity of the last year of the current transformer substation is counted
P i Is less than or equal to 0 and the electric quantity of the lower net>
P i > 0, wherein W up For the amount of power on the Internet, Δ T is the length of the time period, P i For the power of the substation at the i hour, and P i Less than or equal to 0 represents the power transmission on the transformer substation, P i The value more than 0 indicates that the transformer substation normally supplies and carries load;
calculating the ratio eta of the on-grid electric quantity and the off-grid electric quantity of the current transformer substation as
Calculating the probability p of the new energy or conventional power supply power supplied to the current transformer substation as
P i 0 or less and i e (1,35040) where N is up,year The number of loads less than 0 in the current transformer substation operation data all year round, N year The total number of the current transformer substation operation data points in the whole year;
s3, judging the on-line substation according to the data information obtained by calculation in the step S2 and the selected maximum load time period; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
judging the online substation according to the ratio eta of the online electric quantity and the offline electric quantity of the substation obtained in the step S2 and the probability p of new energy or conventional power supply power transmission of the substation; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
the following rules are adopted for judgment:
if eta is more than or equal to 1 and p is more than 0.5, the fact that the annual network access electric quantity of the current transformer substation is larger than the network access electric quantity and the annual network access operation probability is larger than the network access operation probability is indicated, and the current transformer substation is judged to be the network access transformer substation;
if eta is less than 1 or eta is more than 1 and p is less than 0.5, judging that the current transformer substation is a down-grid transformer substation;
selecting a maximum load time period, and calculating net online electricity quantity of a current transformer substation in the maximum load time period, probability of power transmission of the transformer substation in the maximum load time period and a ratio of maximum power transmission and maximum power transmission in the maximum load time period so as to judge the online transformer substation; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
analyzing the condition and probability of power transmission of the current transformer substation in the maximum load time period of the region, wherein the maximum load time period of the current transformer substation usually occurs between 6 and 11 night and is influenced by regional climate and power utilization habits, the annual maximum load usually occurs in summer or winter, and the annual maximum load occurrence seasons of different regions are different; the summer usually takes 7-8 months, and the winter usually takes 1-12 months in the next year. A stable load increase process is inevitable when the maximum load occurs; therefore, the maximum load is selected, the maximum demarcation point is taken, the time of X days (preferably 7 days) is taken before and after the maximum load, and the total time of 2X days (preferably 14 days) is taken as the maximum load section; x is a set real number;
calculating net online electric quantity W of the current transformer substation in the maximum load period N,up Is composed of
Wherein P is i The power of the transformer substation at the ith hour;
calculating the probability p of power transmission on the transformer substation in the maximum load period as
P i Less than or equal to 0; wherein N is up The number of the data is less than 0, and the data represents the power transmission of the transformer substation; n is the number of data points collected by the transformer substation in the maximum load period;
calculating the ratio alpha of the maximum uplink power to the maximum downlink power in the maximum load period as
Wherein P is i,up,max The maximum power is transmitted to the transformer substation in the maximum load period; p is i,down,max The maximum power is sent down to the transformer substation in the maximum load period;
the following rules are adopted for judgment:
if p > 0.5 and W N,up If the current substation is less than 0, judging that the current substation is an online substation;
if p is more than 0.5 and alpha is more than 1, judging that the current transformer substation is an online transformer substation;
when the installed capacity of a power supply accessed by the current transformer substation is larger than or equal to the maximum load of the current transformer substation, judging the online transformer substation according to the relationship between the load and the maximum load of the transformer substation and the relationship between the regional load and the regional maximum load in the maximum load period; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
acquiring the load P of the current region in the maximum load period based on historical operation data load,j Greater than the regional maximum load P load,max Time of Y% (preferably 85%), P load,j ≥0.85P load,max ,j∈(1,N 1 ) (ii) a Then, obtain the currentThe load P of the transformer substation at the corresponding jth moment j And obtaining a load P j Relation to 10% of the maximum load of the substation, P j 0 or less or P j ≤0.1P load,station,max ,j∈(1,N 2 ) (ii) a Wherein, P load,station,max The maximum load of the current transformer substation can be supplied; n is a radical of hydrogen 1 For obtaining the current regional load P in the maximum load period load,j Greater than the regional maximum load P load,max Y% of the time; n is a radical of 2 To satisfy P j 0 or less or P j ≤0.1P load,station,max The number of data of (2);
calculating the probability p of
P j 0 or less or P j ≤0.1P load,station,max ；
The following rules are adopted for judgment:
and if p is greater than 0.5, judging that the current transformer substation is an online transformer substation.
The determination method of the present invention is described below with reference to an embodiment:
taking a grade city of a new energy enrichment area in a provincial power grid as an example, the city has 15 220 KV transformer substations. By the end of 2021, the capacity of a main transformer of a 220 KV substation in the region is 420 ten thousand volt-ampere, the maximum load of the region in 2021 appears in winter, the maximum load of the region is 221.72 ten thousand kilowatts, and the maximum load of a 220 KV network is 133.89 ten thousand kilowatts. At the moment, the loads of the 15 transformer substations are positive numbers, and the transformer substations transmit power to a lower-level power grid at the moment of maximum load. However, in some of these substations, the load supply is not large, and most of the time is to transmit power to the upper-level power grid during 365-day operation of the year. If the 220 KV online substation is not removed when the 220 KV offline capacity-load ratio of the area is analyzed, the calculated offline capacity-load ratio is 3.14. The capacity-load ratio is large and cannot accurately reflect the problems of the power grid, so that the upper website needs to be reasonably removed, and then the minimum capacity-load ratio of 220 kV off-grid is obtained according to the transformation capacity and the off-grid load.
According to the analysis, 2021-year operation data of 15 220 KV substations in the city are analyzed, and the number of websites in the region and the capacity of a main transformer are determined.
The 15 substations are named as Station1, station2, station 3, … …, and Station 15, and the Station1 is taken as an example for analysis:
analyzing the annual running data of Station1, and knowing through analyzing the data:
W up,station1 = -313887.337 kilowatt-hour
W down,station1 =25150.478 ten thousand kilowatt-hour
According to the upper power transmission amount and the lower power transmission amount, the ratio of the upper power transmission amount and the lower power transmission amount can be calculated, namely:
according to the magnitude of eta and P (P) i Less than or equal to 0), the power on the network of the Station1 substation all the year is larger than the power off the network;
the time interval of occurrence of the large load is 5 hours in total, points are taken at intervals of 15 minutes, 21 data points can be obtained in one day, the day of occurrence of the maximum load of the region is taken as a node, 7 days are taken before and after the day of occurrence of the maximum load of the region, actual operation data of the data are analyzed, and 315 groups of data are obtained in total, namely N =315. The maximum online load of the transformer substation is 19.378 ten thousand kilowatts, the maximum offline load is 8.358 ten thousand kilowatts, and the maximum online load and the maximum offline load can be calculated by the following steps:
therefore, the Station1 substation is judged to be an online substation according to the judgment basis;
at the end of 2021, a power installed capacity of 45 ten thousand kilowatts is connected to a Station1 substation, the substation has 2 main transformers with 18 ten thousand volt-ampere, and the maximum load in 2021 is 9.5 ten thousand kilowatts, so that the installed capacity of new energy connected to the substation is larger than the maximum load of the substation.
At the moment, 85 percent of the maximum load of the area is 188.46 ten thousand kilowatts, so that according to the analysis of actual operation data, 285 data points of the area with the load larger than 188.46 ten thousand kilowatts all the year round, namely N 1 =285, the load condition of the substation at the corresponding time can be obtained, and analysis shows that 93 data points of the substation with the load less than 0 and 50 data points of the substation with the load less than 10% of the maximum load are obtained at the corresponding time;
according to the judgment condition, i.e. P (P) j ≤0or0.1P load,station,max ) When the voltage is more than 0.5, the transformer substation is considered as an online transformer substation;
because no high-energy-consumption user exists under the transformer substation, if the high-energy-consumption user is only used as a judgment basis, the capacity of the 220 kV Station1 transformer substation does not need to be eliminated when the network capacity-to-load ratio under 220 kV in the area is calculated.
By combining the analysis, when the offline capacity-to-load ratio of the area is calculated, the capacity of the 220 kV Station1 substation needs to be removed, and the substation is considered to be an online substation for new energy to transmit power.
Then, taking Station2 as an example, analysis is carried out:
analyzing Station2 annual running data, and knowing through analyzing the data:
W up,station2 = -82427.833 kilowatt-hour
W down,station2 =55768.48 ten thousand watt-hours
According to the upper power transmission amount and the lower power transmission amount, the ratio of the upper power transmission amount and the lower power transmission amount can be calculated, namely:
according to the magnitude of eta and P (P) i Less than or equal to 0), the Station2 substation is a down-network substation.
The time interval of occurrence of the large load is 5 hours in total, points are taken at intervals of 15 minutes, 21 data points can be obtained in one day, the day of occurrence of the maximum load of the region is taken as a node, 7 days are taken before and after the day of occurrence of the maximum load of the region, actual operation data of the data are analyzed, and 315 groups of data are obtained in total, namely N =315. From this it can be calculated:
therefore, the Station2 substation is judged to be a down-network substation according to the judgment basis;
at the end of 2021, 23 ten thousand kilowatts of installed capacity of a power supply is accessed to a substation in Station2, the substation has 1 main transformer with 18 ten thousand volt-ampere, and the maximum load in 2021 is 9.7 ten thousand kilowatts, so that the installed capacity of the power supply accessed to the substation is larger than the maximum load of the substation.
At this time, 85% of the maximum load in the area is 188.46 ten thousand kilowatts, so the basis is thatActual operation data analysis shows that the load of the region is more than 188.46 ten thousand kilowatt, and the total 285 data points are obtained, namely N 1 =285, the load condition of the substation at the corresponding time can be obtained, and analysis shows that 2 data points of the substation with the load less than 0 and 50 data points of the substation with the load less than 10% of the maximum load are obtained at the corresponding time;
according to the judgment condition that the transformer substation does not satisfy P (P) j ≤0or 0.1P load,station,max ) If the voltage is more than 0.5, the substation is considered as a down-grid substation;
because no high-energy-consumption user exists under the transformer substation, if the high-energy-consumption user is only used as a judgment basis, the capacity of the 220 kV Station2 transformer substation does not need to be eliminated when the network capacity-to-load ratio under 220 kV in the area is calculated.
By combining the analysis, when the offline capacity-to-load ratio of the area is calculated, the capacity of a 220 KV Station2 transformer substation needs to be removed, and the transformer substation is considered to be an online transformer substation.
After 15 220 KV substations in the city are analyzed according to the method, the network station condition in the region can be obtained, and the following table shows that:
TABLE 1A 220 KV network-access substation situation indication table in a certain city
| Name of transformer station | Transformer substation capacity (thousands volt-ampere) | Whether the network access transformer substation is on line |
| Station1 | 36 | Is that |
| Station 2 | 18 | Whether or not |
| Station3 | 36 | Is that |
| Station4 | 18 | Whether or not |
| Station5 | 30 | Is that |
| Station6 | 36 | Is that |
| Station7 | 36 | Whether or not |
| Station8 | 24 | Whether or not |
| Station9 | 24 | Whether or not |
| Station10 | 24 | Whether or not |
| Station11 | 24 | Whether or not |
| Station12 | 36 | Whether or not |
| Station13 | 36 | Whether or not |
| Station14 | 18 | Is that |
| Station15 | 24 | Whether or not |
The total 420 ten thousand volt-ampere of 15 220 kilovolt substations in the area is up to 2021, wherein 10 220 kilovolt substations are off-grid substations, and the transformation capacity is 264 kilovolt-ampere; 5 220 KV substations are network access substations, and the transformation capacity is 156 ten thousand volt-ampere. The minimum capacity-load ratio of the region in the winter maximum load period is 1.77 according to the method, and the related guiding rule requirements are met (the capacity-load ratio of the 220 kV region is controlled within the range of 1.7-2.0). At the moment, the load of 220 KV network connection in the area is 111.53 ten thousand kilowatts, and the capacity of 220 KV network connection is removed, so that the transformation capacity is 198 ten thousand volt-ampere.
The website obtained by the method is consistent with the 220 kV online substation considered in actual operation at present, the effectiveness of the method is verified, and meanwhile, the obtained result can accurately reflect the condition of ensuring load power supply of the 220 kV power grid in the area.
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of the method of calculating the capacity-to-load ratio of the present invention: the capacity-to-load ratio calculation method comprising the 220 KV power grid online substation judgment method provided by the invention specifically comprises the following steps:
A. the online substations in the area are scheduled by adopting the method for judging the online substations of the 220 KV power grid;
B. when the capacity-to-load ratio of the 220 kV lower network in the area is calculated, the capacity of the online substation obtained in the step A is removed; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
removing the capacity of the online substation obtained in the step A;
when the network capacity-load ratio of a 220 kV lower network in a calculation area is calculated, transformer substations which mainly comprise high-energy-consumption users are removed; the transformer substation mainly using high-energy-consumption users defines the high-energy-consumption users as industries such as an iron-making industry and an electrolytic aluminum industry;
the core of the step is that for a part of substations which mainly comprise high-energy-consumption users, the electricity load characteristics of the users are mainly determined by electricity prices, the maximum load moment of the users usually appears 12 o' clock at night, and the load level of the substation is lower due to the influence of factors such as the electricity prices in the peak load period of a power grid; therefore, when the offline capacity-to-load ratio is analyzed, the capacity of the transformer substation needs to be eliminated, but the transformer substation does not belong to an online transformer substation;
C. and C, calculating the off-grid capacity-load ratio of the 220 KV area power grid according to the data information obtained in the step B.
Claims (8)
1. A method for judging a 220 KV power grid online substation comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring transformer substation data information of a 220 KV regional power grid;
s2, calculating the ratio of the on-grid electric quantity and the off-grid electric quantity of the transformer substation and the probability of the occurrence of the electric power of the new energy or the conventional power supply according to the data information acquired in the step S1;
and S3, judging the online transformer substation according to the data information obtained by calculation in the step S2 and the selected maximum load time period.
2. The method for judging the 220 KV power grid online substation according to claim 1, wherein the step S2 of calculating the ratio of the online electric quantity and the offline electric quantity of the substation and the probability of occurrence of new energy or conventional power supply power transmission according to the data information obtained in the step S1 specifically comprises the following steps:
based on 8760 operating hour data of the last year of the current transformer substation, the annual internet surfing electric quantity of the last year of the current transformer substation is counted
And the lower net charge>
Wherein W up For the amount of power on the Internet, Δ T is the length of the time period, P i For the power of the substation at the i hour, and P i Less than or equal to 0 represents the power transmission on the transformer substation, P i The load is normally supplied and carried by the transformer substation when the load is more than 0;
calculating the ratio eta of the on-grid electric quantity and the off-grid electric quantity of the current transformer substation as
Calculating the probability p of sending new energy or conventional power supply power to the current transformer substation as
P i Is less than or equal to 0 and is epsilon (1,35040), wherein N up,year The number of the current transformer substation operation data with the load less than 0, N year The total number of the current substation operation data points in the whole year.
3. The method for judging the 220 KV power grid online substation according to claim 2, wherein the step S3 of judging the online substation according to the data information obtained by calculation in the step S2 and the selected maximum load time period specifically comprises the following steps:
judging the online substation according to the ratio eta of the online electric quantity and the offline electric quantity of the substation obtained in the step S2 and the probability p of new energy or conventional power supply power transmission of the substation;
selecting a maximum load time period, and calculating net online electricity quantity of a current transformer substation in the maximum load time period, probability of power transmission of the transformer substation in the maximum load time period and a ratio of maximum power transmission and maximum power transmission in the maximum load time period so as to judge the online transformer substation;
and when the installed capacity of a power supply accessed by the current transformer substation is larger than or equal to the maximum load of the current transformer substation, judging the online transformer substation according to the relationship between the load and the maximum load of the transformer substation and the relationship between the regional load and the regional maximum load in the maximum load period.
4. The method for judging the 220 KV power grid online substation according to claim 3, wherein the online substation is judged according to the ratio eta of the online electric quantity and the offline electric quantity of the substation obtained in the step S2 and the probability p of new energy or conventional power supply power supplied to the substation, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
the following rules are adopted for judgment:
if eta is more than or equal to 1 and p is more than 0.5, the fact that the annual network access electric quantity of the current transformer substation is larger than the network access electric quantity and the annual network access operation probability is larger than the network access operation probability is indicated, and the current transformer substation is judged to be the network access transformer substation;
and if eta is less than 1 or eta is more than 1 and p is less than 0.5, judging that the current transformer substation is a network-off transformer substation.
5. The method for judging the 220 KV power grid online substation according to claim 3, wherein the net online electric quantity of the current substation in the maximum load period, the probability of the power transmission of the substation in the maximum load period and the ratio of the maximum power transmission to the maximum power transmission in the maximum load period are calculated in the selected maximum load period, so that the online substation is judged, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
selecting a maximum load, and taking the time of X days before and after the maximum load is taken as a boundary point, wherein the total time of 2X days is taken as a maximum load section; x is a set real number;
calculating net online electric quantity W of the current transformer substation in the maximum load period N,up Is composed of
Wherein P is i The power of the transformer substation at the ith hour;
calculating the probability p of power transmission on the transformer substation in the maximum load period as
Wherein N is up The number of the data is less than 0, and the data represents the power transmission of the transformer substation; n is the number of data points collected by the transformer substation in the maximum load period;
calculating the ratio alpha of the maximum uplink power to the maximum downlink power in the maximum load period as
Wherein P is i,up,max The maximum power is transmitted to the transformer substation in the maximum load period; p i,down,max The maximum power is sent down to the transformer substation in the maximum load period;
the following rules are adopted for judgment:
if p > 0.5 and W N,up If the current substation is less than 0, judging that the current substation is an online substation;
and if p is more than 0.5 and alpha is more than 1, judging that the current transformer substation is an online transformer substation.
6. The method for judging the 220 KV power grid online substation according to claim 3, wherein when the installed capacity of a power supply accessed by the current substation is greater than or equal to the maximum load of the current substation, the online substation is judged according to the relationship between the load and the maximum load of the substation and the relationship between the regional load and the regional maximum load within the maximum load period, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
based on historical operating data, during periods of maximum loadTaking the current regional load P load,j Greater than regional maximum load P load,max Time of Y%, P load,j ≥0.85P load,max ,j∈(1,N 1 ) (ii) a Then, the load P of the current transformer substation at the corresponding jth moment is obtained j And obtaining a load P j Relation to 10% of the maximum load of the substation, P j 0 or less or P j ≤0.1P load,station,max ,j∈(1,N 2 ) (ii) a Wherein, P load,station,max The maximum load available for the current substation; n is a radical of 1 For obtaining the current regional load P in the maximum load period load,j Greater than the regional maximum load P load,max Y% of the time; n is a radical of 2 To satisfy P j 0 or less or P j ≤0.1P load,station,max The number of data of (2);
calculating the probability p of
P j 0 or less or P j ≤0.1P load,station,max ；
The following rules are adopted for judgment:
and if p is greater than 0.5, judging that the current transformer substation is an online transformer substation.
7. A capacity-to-load ratio calculation method comprising the 220 kV power grid online substation judgment method as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 6, is characterized by comprising the following steps:
A. the online substations in the area are scheduled by adopting the method for judging the online substations of the 220 KV power grid;
B. when the network capacity-load ratio of the 220 KV lower network in the area is calculated, the capacity of the online substation obtained in the step A is eliminated;
C. and D, calculating the grid-off capacity-load ratio of the 220 KV regional power grid according to the data information obtained in the step B.
8. The capacity-to-load ratio calculation method according to claim 7, wherein the capacity of the online substation obtained in the step A is rejected when the capacity-to-load ratio of the network in the area B is calculated under 220 kV, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
removing the capacity of the online substation obtained in the step A;
when the network capacity-load ratio of a 220 kV lower network in a calculation area is calculated, transformer substations which mainly comprise high-energy-consumption users are removed; the transformer substation mainly using high-energy-consumption users comprises transformer substations using iron-making industry and electrolytic aluminum industry as users.
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| CN116436020A (en) * | 2023-05-05 | 2023-07-14 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Demand judging method and system for new energy Internet surfing aggregation station |
| CN116523403A (en) * | 2023-05-05 | 2023-08-01 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Regional power grid 220KV capacity-load ratio calculation method and system |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN116436020A (en) * | 2023-05-05 | 2023-07-14 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Demand judging method and system for new energy Internet surfing aggregation station |
| CN116523403A (en) * | 2023-05-05 | 2023-08-01 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Regional power grid 220KV capacity-load ratio calculation method and system |
| CN116436020B (en) * | 2023-05-05 | 2024-05-07 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Demand judging method and system for new energy Internet surfing aggregation station |
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