CN115965402A - Power quotation method and device based on wave flow historical data - Google Patents
Power quotation method and device based on wave flow historical data Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application discloses a method and a device for electric power quotation based on historical storm surge data. And then acquiring the wave flow observation data within the preset time range, predicting the wave flow observation data within the preset time range to obtain predicted wave flow data on the preset date, and obtaining the total generated energy on the preset date according to the predicted wave flow data on the preset date. And finally, obtaining the electric power quotation on the preset date according to the total electric power generation amount on the current date, the electric power quotation on the current date and the total electric power generation amount on the preset date, thereby providing data support for the electric power quotation method through historical data and enabling the electric power quotation method to be more standard and reasonable.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of wind power generation quotation, in particular to a power quotation method and device based on wind wave flow historical data.
Background
With the development and application of modern high and new technologies, the automation of power generation and transmission facilities, the automation of information transmission and power scheduling, and the transaction of the power market become possible implementation modes, the power generation, the power transmission and the power supply can be divided into three independent operation links, and the mutual transaction can be realized between the power generation and the power transmission, between the power transmission and the power supply, between the power supply and users, so that the transaction of the power market is realized.
At present, the development of the domestic electric power market is immature, and the electric power futures do not appear yet, but the electric power futures trading in foreign markets also has immature problems, and the quotation of the electric power futures is not supported by determined data and only depends on subjective judgment, so that the quotation method of the electric power futures becomes a problem which needs to be solved urgently.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of this, the embodiment of the present application provides a power quotation method and device based on storm flow historical data, and aims to provide a reasonable and standard power quotation method.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a power quotation method based on wave flow historical data, where the method includes:
acquiring historical observation data of storm flow on the current date;
assimilating the historical observation data to obtain assimilated historical observation data;
analyzing and calculating the history observation data after the assimilation treatment to obtain the calculated history storm flow data;
obtaining the total power generation amount of the current date and the power quotation of the current date according to the calculated historical storm flow data;
acquiring wave flow observation data within a preset time range;
predicting the wave flow observation data in the preset time range to obtain predicted wave flow data on a preset date, wherein the preset date is larger than the preset time range;
obtaining the total power generation amount of the preset date according to the predicted storm flow data of the preset date;
and obtaining the electric power quotation on the preset date according to the total electric power generation on the current date, the electric power quotation on the current date and the total electric power generation on the preset date.
Optionally, the analyzing and calculating the historical observation data after the assimilation processing to obtain the calculated historical storm flow data includes:
and inputting the assimilated historical observation data into a weather forecast mode WRF for analysis and calculation to obtain the calculated historical storm flow data.
Optionally, the predicting the wave current observation data within the preset time range to obtain predicted wave current data on a preset date, where the preset date is greater than the preset time range, includes:
inputting the storm wave flow observation data in the preset time range into a weather forecast mode WRF for forecasting to obtain the storm wave flow data in the preset period.
Optionally, the historical observation data of the current date storm flow comprises time, wind speed, wind direction, temperature and/or pressure.
Optionally, the obtaining the total power generation amount on the preset date according to the predicted storm flow data on the preset date includes:
and calculating the predicted wind speed, the air density and the number of wind farms on the preset date to obtain the total generated energy on the preset date.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides an electric power quotation device based on wave flow historical data, the device includes:
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring historical observation data of the current date storm flow;
the assimilation processing module is used for assimilating the historical observation data to obtain the assimilated historical observation data;
the analysis module is used for analyzing and calculating the assimilating processed historical observation data to obtain calculated historical storm flow data;
the first obtaining module is used for obtaining the total power generation amount of the current date and the power quotation of the current date according to the calculated historical storm flow data;
the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the wave flow observation data within a preset time range;
the prediction module is used for predicting the storm wave flow observation data in the preset time range to obtain the storm wave flow data of the predicted preset date, and the preset date is larger than the preset time range;
the second obtaining module is used for obtaining the total power generation amount of the preset date according to the predicted stormy wave flow data of the preset date;
and the third obtaining module is used for obtaining the electric power quotation on the preset date according to the total electric power generation on the current date, the electric power quotation on the current date and the total electric power generation on the preset date.
Optionally, the analysis module is specifically configured to:
and inputting the assimilated historical observation data into a weather forecast mode WRF for analysis and calculation to obtain the calculated historical storm flow data.
Optionally, the prediction module is specifically configured to:
inputting the wave flow observation data in the preset time range into a weather forecast mode WRF for forecasting to obtain the predicted wave flow data of the preset time limit.
Optionally, the historical observation data of the current date storm flow comprises time, wind speed, wind direction, temperature and/or pressure.
Optionally, the second obtaining module is specifically configured to:
and calculating the predicted wind speed, the predicted air density and the number of wind farms on the preset date to obtain the total generated energy on the preset date.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides an electric power quotation device based on wave flow historical data, where the device includes:
a memory for storing a computer program;
a processor configured to execute the computer program to cause the apparatus to perform the power quoting method based on the storm flow history data according to the first aspect.
In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer storage medium, where a computer program is stored on the computer readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed, an apparatus running the computer program implements the power quotation method based on the storm flow historical data according to the first aspect.
Compared with the prior art, the embodiment of the application has the following beneficial effects:
the embodiment of the application provides a method and a device for power quotation based on historical storm flow data. And then acquiring the storm surge observation data within the preset time range, predicting the storm surge observation data within the preset time range to acquire the predicted storm surge data of the preset date, wherein the preset date is larger than the preset time range, and acquiring the total power generation amount of the preset date according to the predicted storm surge data of the preset date. And finally, obtaining the electric power quotation on the preset date according to the total electric power generation on the current date, the electric power quotation on the current date and the total electric power generation on the preset date. Historical storm flow data of the current date can be obtained through assimilation processing and analysis calculation, the total power generation amount of the current date and the power quotation of the current date can be calculated according to the historical storm flow data, storm flow observation data in a preset time range are predicted, storm flow data of the preset date can be obtained, the total power generation amount of the preset date can be obtained through the storm flow data of the preset date, the power quotation of the preset date can be obtained through the total power generation amount of the current date, the power quotation of the current date and the total power generation amount of the preset date, and data support is provided for a power quotation method through the historical data, so that the power quotation method of the power future trading market is more standard and reasonable.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments or the prior art, the drawings used in the embodiments or the prior art descriptions will be briefly described below, and obviously, the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application, and other drawings can be obtained by those skilled in the art without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of a system framework related to an application scenario in an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 2 is a flowchart of an electric power quotation method based on wave flow historical data according to an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an electric power quotation device based on historical data of stormy waves and current provided by an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical solutions of the present application better understood, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present application, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
At present, the development of the domestic electric power market is immature, and the electric power futures do not appear yet, but the electric power futures trading in foreign markets also has immature problems, and the quotation of the electric power futures is not supported by determined data and only depends on subjective judgment, so that the quotation method of the electric power futures becomes a problem which needs to be solved urgently.
In order to solve the above problem, in the embodiment of the present invention, first, historical observation data of a current date storm flow is acquired, the historical observation data is assimilated to obtain assimilated historical observation data, the assimilated historical observation data is analyzed and calculated to obtain calculated historical storm flow data, and a total power generation amount of the current date and a power quoted price of the current date are obtained based on the calculated historical storm flow data. And then acquiring the storm surge observation data within the preset time range, predicting the storm surge observation data within the preset time range to acquire the predicted storm surge data of the preset date, wherein the preset date is larger than the preset time range, and acquiring the total power generation amount of the preset date according to the predicted storm surge data of the preset date. And finally, obtaining the electric power quotation on the preset date according to the total electric power generation on the current date, the electric power quotation on the current date and the total electric power generation on the preset date.
Therefore, historical storm flow data of the current date can be obtained through assimilation processing and analysis calculation, the total power generation amount of the current date and the power quotation of the current date can be calculated according to the historical storm flow data, the storm flow observation data in the preset time range can be predicted, the storm flow data of the preset date can be obtained, the total power generation amount of the preset date can be obtained through the storm flow data of the preset date, the power quotation of the preset date can be obtained through the total power generation amount of the current date, the power quotation of the current date and the total power generation amount of the preset date, and data support is provided for a power quotation method through historical data, so that the power quotation method of the power futures trading market is more standard and reasonable.
For example, one of the scenarios in the embodiment of the present application may be applied to the scenario shown in fig. 1. The scene comprises a server 101 and a database 102, wherein the database 102 comprises historical observation data of the current date storm flow and observation data of the storm flow within a preset time range, and the server 101 obtains the historical observation data of the current date storm flow and the observation data of the storm flow within the preset time range from the database 102 by adopting the implementation mode provided by the embodiment of the application.
First, in the application scenario described above, although the actions of the embodiment provided by the embodiment of the present application are described as being performed by the server 101; however, the embodiments of the present application are not limited in terms of the execution subject as long as the actions disclosed in the embodiments provided in the embodiments of the present application are executed.
Next, the foregoing scenario is only one example of the scenario provided in the embodiment of the present application, and the embodiment of the present application is not limited to this scenario.
The following describes in detail a specific implementation of the method and the device for power quotation based on the historical data of stormy waves and currents in the embodiment of the present application, with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Referring to fig. 2, which is a flowchart of an electric power quotation method based on historical data of stormy waves and current provided in an embodiment of the present application, and as shown in fig. 2, the method specifically includes:
s201: and acquiring historical observation data of the current date storm flow.
Historical observation data of the current date storm flow can be acquired from observation equipment such as a buoy, a wind measuring tower, a meteorological station and a marine station, and can comprise time, wind speed, wind direction, temperature or pressure.
S202: and assimilating the historical observation data to obtain the assimilated historical observation data.
The assimilation processing of The historical observation data is a processing method for converting The historical observation data into a format conforming to a Weather forecast mode (WRF), and The assimilated historical observation data can be obtained.
S203: and analyzing and calculating the history observation data after assimilation processing to obtain the calculated history storm flow data.
The assimilation-processed historical observation data is analyzed and calculated, and the assimilation-processed historical observation data can be input into a weather forecast mode WRF for analysis and calculation, so that the calculated historical storm flow data can be obtained, and the time duration of the calculated historical storm flow data is determined by the time coverage range of the historical observation data.
S204: and obtaining the total power generation amount on the current date and the power quotation on the current date according to the calculated historical storm flow data.
According to the calculated historical storm flow data, the total power generation amount of the current date and the power quoted price of the current date can be obtained, and as an example, the total power generation amount of the current date of the last year and the power quoted price of the current date of the last year can be obtained according to the wind speed of the current date of the last year, and the total power generation amount of the current date of the year and the power quoted price of the current date of the year can be obtained. Assuming that there are N wind farms in the locality, the total power generation amount at the current date can be represented by equation 1:
wherein, P 0，total Representing the total power generation, P, of N wind farms on the current date i Representing the power generation of the ith wind farm.
S205: and acquiring the wave flow observation data within a preset time range.
The obtaining of the wave flow observation data within the preset time range may be obtaining of wave flow observation data of the last several days.
S206: and predicting the storm wave flow observation data within the preset time range to obtain the storm wave flow data of the predicted preset date, wherein the preset date is larger than the preset time range.
The presetting of the wave flow observation data within the preset time range may be inputting the wave flow observation data within the preset time range into a weather forecast mode WRF for prediction, and obtaining the predicted wave flow data of the preset time limit. The predicted wave flow data of the preset time limit can be wave flow data of the mth day in the future, wave flow observation data of the recent days can be input into the WRF mode for prediction, and wave flow data of the mth day in the future can be predicted.
S207: and obtaining the total power generation amount of the preset date according to the predicted storm flow data of the preset date.
And obtaining the total power generation amount of the mth day of the preset date according to the predicted storm flow data of the preset date. The predicted wind speed, air density and number of wind farms on the preset date can be calculated to obtain the total power generation amount on the mth day on the preset date. Assuming that there are N wind farms in the locality, the total power generation amount on the preset date can be represented by equation 2:
wherein, P m，total Representing the total power generation amount P of N wind power plants on the mth day of the preset date i Representing the power generation of the ith wind farm.
S208: and obtaining the electric power quotation on the preset date according to the total electric power generation amount on the current date, the electric power quotation on the current date and the total electric power generation amount on the preset date.
Can pass through J 0 Power quote indicating the current date, through J m Representing the power quotation of the mth day of the preset date, and acquiring the power quotation J of the preset date m Can be expressed according to equation 3:
J m ＝J 0 *P 0，total /P m，total (formula 3)
Wherein, P 0，total Representing the total power generation, P, of N wind farms on the current date m，total And (3) the total power generation amount of the N wind power plants on the mth day of the preset date is represented, and if the local power demand is constant, the power quotation on the preset date can be obtained according to the total power generation amount on the current date, the power quotation on the current date and the total power generation amount on the preset date through a formula 3.
The method for power quotation based on the historical data of the storm flows, which is provided by the embodiment of the application, includes the steps of firstly, obtaining historical observation data of the storm flows at the current date, assimilating the historical observation data to obtain the historical observation data after assimilating, analyzing and calculating the historical observation data after assimilating to obtain the historical storm flow data after calculation, and obtaining the total power generation amount at the current date and the power quotation at the current date according to the historical storm flow data after calculation. And then acquiring the storm surge observation data within the preset time range, predicting the storm surge observation data within the preset time range to acquire the predicted storm surge data of the preset date, wherein the preset date is larger than the preset time range, and acquiring the total power generation amount of the preset date according to the predicted storm surge data of the preset date. And finally, obtaining the electric power quotation of the preset date according to the total electric power generation amount of the current date, the electric power quotation of the current date and the total electric power generation amount of the preset date.
Therefore, historical storm flow data of the current date can be obtained through assimilation processing and analysis calculation, total power generation amount of the current date and power quotation of the current date can be calculated according to the historical storm flow data, storm flow observation data in a preset time range are predicted, storm flow data of the preset date can be obtained, total power generation amount of the preset date can be obtained through the storm flow data of the preset date, power quotation of the preset date can be obtained through the total power generation amount of the current date, the power quotation of the current date and the total power generation amount of the preset date, and data support is provided for a power quotation method through the historical data, so that the power quotation method of the power futures trading market is more standard and reasonable.
The above provides some specific implementation manners of the power quotation method based on the historical data of the stormy waves and currents for the embodiment of the application, and on the basis, the application also provides a corresponding device. The device provided by the embodiment of the present application will be described in terms of functional modularity.
Referring to fig. 3, which is a schematic structural diagram of an electric power quotation device 300 based on wave flow historical data according to an embodiment of the present application, the device 300 may include:
the first obtaining module 301 is configured to obtain historical observation data of storm flows on the current date;
an assimilation processing module 302, configured to perform assimilation processing on the historical observation data to obtain assimilated historical observation data;
the analysis module 303 is configured to perform analysis and calculation on the assimilating-processed historical observation data to obtain calculated historical storm flow data;
a first obtaining module 304, configured to obtain, according to the calculated historical storm flow data, a total power generation amount on the current date and a power quoted price on the current date;
a second obtaining module 305, configured to obtain wave flow observation data within a preset time range;
the prediction module 306 is configured to predict the wave flow observation data within a preset time range, and obtain predicted wave flow data on a preset date, where the preset date is greater than the preset time range;
a second obtaining module 307, configured to obtain, according to the predicted storm flow data on the preset date, a total power generation amount on the preset date;
the third obtaining module 308 is configured to obtain the power price on the preset date according to the total power generation amount on the current date, the power price on the current date, and the total power generation amount on the preset date.
In the embodiment of the application, through cooperation of the first obtaining module 301, the assimilation processing module 302, the analysis module 303, the first obtaining module 304, the second obtaining module 305, the prediction module 306, the second obtaining module 307 and the third obtaining module 308, historical storm flow data of the current date can be obtained through assimilation processing and analysis calculation, the total power generation amount of the current date and the power quotation of the current date can be calculated according to the historical storm flow data, the storm flow observation data in a preset time range can be predicted, the storm flow data of the preset date can be obtained, the total power generation amount of the preset date can be obtained through the storm flow data of the preset date, the power quotation of the preset date can be obtained through the total power generation amount of the current date, the power quotation of the current date and the total power generation amount of the preset date, and data support is provided for a power quotation method through the historical data, so that a power quotation method of a power future goods trading market is more standard and reasonable.
As an embodiment, the analysis module 303 is specifically configured to:
and inputting the assimilated historical observation data into a weather forecast mode WRF for analysis and calculation to obtain calculated historical storm flow data.
As an embodiment, the prediction module 306 is specifically configured to:
inputting the storm flow observation data within the preset time range into a weather forecast mode WRF for forecasting to obtain the predicted storm flow data of the preset time limit.
As an embodiment, the historical observation data of the current date storm flow comprises time, wind speed, wind direction, temperature and/or pressure.
As an implementation manner, the second obtaining module 307 is specifically configured to:
and calculating the predicted wind speed, air density and number of wind farms on the preset date to obtain the total generated energy on the preset date.
The embodiment of the application also provides corresponding equipment and a computer storage medium, which are used for realizing the scheme provided by the embodiment of the application.
The device comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory is used for storing a computer program, and the processor is used for executing the computer program so as to enable the device to execute the power quotation method based on the storm flow historical data in any embodiment of the application.
The computer storage medium stores a computer program, and when the code is executed, the device running the computer program implements the power quotation method based on the storm flow historical data according to any embodiment of the application.
In the embodiments of the present application, the names "first" and "second" (if present) in the names "first" and "second" are used for name identification, and do not represent the first and second in sequence.
As can be seen from the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that all or part of the steps in the above embodiment methods can be implemented by software plus a general hardware platform. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present application may be embodied in the form of a software product, which may be stored in a storage medium, such as a read-only memory (ROM)/RAM, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, etc., and includes several instructions for enabling a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network communication device such as a router, etc.) to execute the method according to the embodiments or some parts of the embodiments of the present application.
It should be noted that, in the present specification, all the embodiments are described in a progressive manner, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments may be referred to each other, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from the other embodiments. In particular, the apparatus embodiments are substantially similar to the method embodiments and therefore are described in a relatively simple manner, and reference may be made to some of the description of the method embodiments for relevant points. The above-described embodiments of the apparatus are merely illustrative, and the units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and the parts suggested as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the present embodiment. One of ordinary skill in the art can understand and implement it without inventive effort.
The above description is only one specific embodiment of the present application, but the scope of the present application is not limited thereto, and any changes or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present application should be covered by the scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for quoting power based on wave and current historical data, the method comprising:
acquiring historical observation data of the current date storm flow;
assimilating the historical observation data to obtain assimilated historical observation data;
analyzing and calculating the history observation data after the assimilation treatment to obtain calculated history storm flow data;
obtaining the total power generation amount of the current date and the power quotation of the current date according to the calculated historical storm flow data;
acquiring wave flow observation data within a preset time range;
predicting the wave flow observation data in the preset time range to obtain predicted wave flow data on a preset date, wherein the preset date is larger than the preset time range;
obtaining the total power generation amount of the preset date according to the predicted stormy wave flow data of the preset date;
and obtaining the electric power quotation on the preset date according to the total electric power generation on the current date, the electric power quotation on the current date and the total electric power generation on the preset date.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the analyzing and calculating the historical observation data after the assimilation processing to obtain the calculated historical storm flow data comprises:
and inputting the assimilated historical observation data into a weather forecast mode WRF for analysis and calculation to obtain the calculated historical storm flow data.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the predicting the wave current observation data in the preset time range to obtain predicted wave current data on a preset date, wherein the preset date is greater than the preset time range, comprises:
inputting the wave flow observation data in the preset time range into a weather forecast mode WRF for forecasting to obtain the predicted wave flow data of the preset time limit.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical observation of current date stormy waves includes time, wind speed, wind direction, temperature and/or pressure.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the predicted current data of stormy waves on the preset date comprises wind speed, and the obtaining of the total power generation amount on the preset date according to the predicted current data of stormy waves on the preset date comprises:
and calculating the predicted wind speed, the predicted air density and the number of wind farms on the preset date to obtain the total generated energy on the preset date.
6. An electricity pricing device based on wave flow historical data, the device comprising:
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring historical observation data of the current date storm flow;
the assimilation processing module is used for assimilating the historical observation data to obtain the assimilated historical observation data;
the analysis module is used for analyzing and calculating the assimilating processed historical observation data to obtain calculated historical storm flow data;
the first obtaining module is used for obtaining the total power generation amount of the current date and the power quotation of the current date according to the calculated historical storm flow data;
the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the wave flow observation data within a preset time range;
the prediction module is used for predicting the storm flow observation data within the preset time range to obtain the predicted storm flow data of a preset date, and the preset date is larger than the preset time range;
the second obtaining module is used for obtaining the total power generation amount of the preset date according to the predicted stormy wave flow data of the preset date;
and the third obtaining module is used for obtaining the electric power quotation on the preset date according to the total electric power generation on the current date, the electric power quotation on the current date and the total electric power generation on the preset date.
7. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein the analysis module is specifically configured to:
and inputting the assimilated historical observation data into a weather forecast mode WRF for analysis and calculation to obtain the calculated historical storm flow data.
8. The apparatus according to claim 6, wherein the prediction module is specifically configured to:
inputting the wave flow observation data in the preset time range into a weather forecast mode WRF for forecasting to obtain the predicted wave flow data of the preset time limit.
9. An electricity pricing device based on wave flow historical data, the device comprising:
a memory for storing a computer program;
a processor for executing the computer program to cause the apparatus to perform the steps of the method of power pricing based on stormy wave flow history data of any of claims 1-5.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, in which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method for power pricing based on stormy wave flow history data according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
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| CN202211666051.9A CN115965402A (en) | 2022-12-23 | 2022-12-23 | Power quotation method and device based on wave flow historical data |
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| CN202211666051.9A CN115965402A (en) | 2022-12-23 | 2022-12-23 | Power quotation method and device based on wave flow historical data |
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| CN202211666051.9A Pending CN115965402A (en) | 2022-12-23 | 2022-12-23 | Power quotation method and device based on wave flow historical data |
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