CN115936868A - Distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method and system based on data analysis - Google Patents
Distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method and system based on data analysis Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method and system based on data analysis, which are used for carrying out basic risk analysis on photovoltaic power generation transactions and carrying out risk analysis on hardware equipment related to transactions; carrying out execution risk analysis on photovoltaic power generation transactions, analyzing the photovoltaic power generation units, determining relevant data of the profit value floating area, and analyzing, comparing and judging whether execution risks exist or not; carrying out sudden risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, and analyzing and judging the sudden risk of the transaction; analyzing each profit time interval in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, and judging whether the profit ratio of each profit time interval has risk or not; and prompting corresponding risks according to various risk results. The method and the device can prevent the power generation transaction risk from being large due to various abnormal risk analysis, and the success rate of the photovoltaic power generation transaction is reduced.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power generation transaction risk assessment, and particularly relates to a distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method and system based on data analysis.
Background
The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present disclosure and may not constitute prior art.
Photovoltaic power generation is a technology of directly converting light energy into electric energy by using the photovoltaic effect of a semiconductor interface. The solar energy power generation system mainly comprises a solar panel (assembly), a controller and an inverter, and the main components are electronic components. The solar cells are connected in series and then are packaged and protected to form a large-area solar cell module, and then the photovoltaic power generation device is formed by matching with components such as a power controller and the like.
However, in the prior art, accurate risk prediction cannot be performed before and after transaction and during transaction in the transaction process of photovoltaic power generation, so that the pass rate of transaction is reduced, the transaction quality of photovoltaic power generation is affected, the power consumption quality of a user is reduced, and the operation of a power generator is affected.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method and system based on data analysis.
According to some embodiments, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method based on data analysis comprises the following steps:
performing basic risk analysis on photovoltaic power generation transactions, performing risk analysis on hardware equipment related to the transactions, acquiring basic risk analysis coefficients of the photovoltaic power generation transactions, and comparing and judging whether basic risks exist according to the basic risk analysis coefficients;
carrying out execution risk analysis on photovoltaic power generation transaction, analyzing a photovoltaic power generation unit, determining relevant data of a profit value floating area, and analyzing, comparing and judging whether execution risk exists or not;
carrying out emergent risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, analyzing and judging the relation between the reduction span of the photovoltaic power generation amount and the threshold thereof, and the increasing speed of the electric quantity demand and the threshold thereof in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process so as to determine the emergent risk of the transaction;
analyzing each profit time interval in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, and judging whether the profit ratio of each profit time interval has risk or not;
and prompting corresponding risks according to various risk results.
As an alternative embodiment, the basic risk analysis is performed, and the specific process of performing the risk analysis on the hardware device related to the transaction includes:
acquiring the real-time operable quantity ratio of the photovoltaic generator set, the generated energy average transmission fault frequency of the photovoltaic generator set and the ratio of the maximum transaction quantity of the photovoltaic generator set to the generated energy;
if the basic risk analysis coefficient of the photovoltaic power generation transaction exceeds the basic risk analysis coefficient threshold, generating a basic low risk signal and transmitting the basic low risk signal; and if the basic risk analysis coefficient of the photovoltaic power generation transaction does not exceed the basic risk analysis coefficient threshold, generating a basic high risk signal.
As an alternative embodiment, the data related to the profit margin float region in performing the risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction includes:
setting a plurality of detection time points in the historical operation process of the photovoltaic generator set, acquiring the profit value of each detection time point according to data acquisition, acquiring the corresponding profit value according to the expenditure of the detection time point to the profit value of the detection time point, and acquiring a profit value floating interval according to the profit value of each detection time point;
the minimum profit value in the profit value floating interval is marked as an analysis time point corresponding to the detection time point, the average profit reduction speed of the adjacent N detection time points in front of the analysis time point is collected, namely the low profit risk speed, and the profit difference value between the analysis time point and the adjacent N detection time points in back is marked as the profit span to be increased, and N is a set value.
As an alternative embodiment, the process of performing a risk analysis on a photovoltaic power generation transaction includes: the average reduction rate of the profit of the previous adjacent N detection time points of the current detection time point and the predicted profit increase value of the power generation transaction of the current detection time point and the previous adjacent N detection time points are collected and analyzed:
and if the average profit reduction speed of the previous adjacent N detection time points of the current detection time point exceeds the low profit risk speed, or the predicted profit growth value of the power generation transaction of the current detection time point and the previous adjacent N detection time points does not exceed the profit to be increased span, judging that the current photovoltaic power generation transaction execution risk is high, and generating an execution high risk signal.
As a further embodiment, if the average decreasing speed of the profit of the previous adjacent N detection time points of the current detection time point does not exceed the low profit risk speed, and the expected profit growth value of the power generation transaction of the current detection time point and the previous adjacent N detection time point exceeds the profit span to be increased, it is determined that the current photovoltaic power generation transaction execution risk is low, and an execution low risk signal is generated and will be executed.
As an alternative embodiment, the specific process of performing the sudden risk analysis includes: acquiring a reduction span of photovoltaic power generation amount in a photovoltaic power generation transaction process and an increase speed of electric quantity demand in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, and comparing the reduction span and the increase speed with a reduction span threshold value and an increase speed threshold value respectively;
if the reduction span of the photovoltaic power generation amount in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process exceeds a reduction span threshold value or the increase speed of the electric quantity demand in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process exceeds an increase speed threshold value, generating a burst high risk signal and transmitting the burst high risk signal;
and if the reduction span of the photovoltaic power generation amount in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process does not exceed the reduction span threshold value and the increase speed of the electric quantity demand in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process does not exceed the increase speed threshold value, generating an emergent low-risk signal and transmitting the emergent low-risk signal.
As an alternative embodiment, the specific process of the benefit period analysis includes:
acquiring a time period of photovoltaic power generation transaction, dividing the time period into three sub-time periods which are respectively a peak period, a peak-leveling period and a valley period according to transaction amount, acquiring a maximum floating span of a profit ratio corresponding to adjacent sub-time periods and a maximum profit ratio difference of non-adjacent sub-time periods, and comparing the maximum floating span of the profit ratio corresponding to adjacent sub-time periods and the maximum profit ratio difference of the non-adjacent sub-time periods with a floating span threshold and a profit ratio difference threshold respectively;
if the maximum floating span of the income ratio corresponding to the adjacent sub-time periods exceeds the floating span threshold value or the maximum income ratio difference value of the non-adjacent sub-time periods exceeds the income ratio difference value threshold value, judging that the income time period analysis in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process is unqualified, generating an income risk signal and generating an income risk signal;
and if the maximum floating span of the income ratio corresponding to the adjacent sub-time periods does not exceed the floating span threshold value and the maximum income ratio difference value of the non-adjacent sub-time periods does not exceed the income ratio difference value threshold value, judging that the income time period analysis in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process is qualified, generating an income safety signal and sending the income safety signal.
A distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment system based on data analysis comprises:
the basic risk analysis unit is used for carrying out basic risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction, carrying out risk analysis on hardware equipment related to the transaction, obtaining a basic risk analysis coefficient of the photovoltaic power generation transaction, and comparing and judging whether a basic risk exists according to the basic risk analysis coefficient;
the execution risk prediction unit is used for carrying out execution risk analysis on photovoltaic power generation transactions, analyzing the photovoltaic power generation units, determining relevant data of the profit value floating area, and analyzing, comparing and judging whether execution risks exist or not;
the emergency risk analysis unit is used for carrying out emergency risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, analyzing and judging the relation between the reduction span of the photovoltaic power generation amount and the threshold value thereof and the increasing speed of the electric quantity demand and the threshold value thereof in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process so as to determine the emergency risk of the transaction;
the profit time interval analysis unit is used for analyzing each profit time interval in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process and judging whether the profit ratio of each time interval of the profit time has risks or not;
and the processing module is connected with other analysis units and used for prompting corresponding risks according to various risk results.
The processing module is a server or is connected with the server.
A computer readable storage medium storing computer instructions which, when executed by a processor, perform the steps of the above method.
An electronic device comprising a memory and a processor and computer instructions stored on the memory and executed on the processor, the computer instructions, when executed by the processor, performing the steps of the above method.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. according to the method, basic risk analysis is carried out on photovoltaic power generation transactions, namely risk analysis is carried out on hardware equipment of the photovoltaic power generation transactions, so that risk assessment is carried out on the corresponding power generation transactions, and the problems that the power generation transaction risk is large due to abnormal risk analysis of the hardware equipment, the success rate of the photovoltaic power generation transactions is reduced, the operation of a power generator is influenced, and the power utilization quality of a user is influenced are solved; performing execution risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction, and judging whether the execution risk of the photovoltaic power generation transaction is normal or not, so that the photovoltaic power generation transaction is abnormal in the execution process, the transaction efficiency is reduced, the normal profit of a power generator is influenced, the power utilization quality of a user is reduced, and the operation cost of the power generator is increased;
2. according to the method, the sudden risk analysis is carried out on the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, whether the external influence risk is normal in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process is judged, and the photovoltaic power generation transaction is prevented from being influenced due to the external influence, so that the qualification rate of the photovoltaic power generation transaction is reduced, the photovoltaic power generation cannot be avoided due to the external influence in time, and the stability of the photovoltaic power generation transaction is reduced; each profit time interval in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process is analyzed, whether the profit is reasonable or not in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process is judged, and therefore profit stability of the photovoltaic power generation transaction is guaranteed, a power generator can operate stably, meanwhile when the profit is at risk, adjustment can be conducted in time, and loss is reduced to the maximum extent.
In order to make the aforementioned and other objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, preferred embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, are included to provide a further understanding of the invention, and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate exemplary embodiments of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the invention and not to limit the invention.
Fig. 1 is a schematic block diagram of the present invention.
The specific implementation mode is as follows:
the invention is further described with reference to the following figures and examples.
It is to be understood that the following detailed description is exemplary and is intended to provide further explanation of the invention as claimed. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs.
It is noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of exemplary embodiments according to the invention. As used herein, the singular forms "a", "an", and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, and it should be understood that when the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising" are used in this specification, they specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, devices, components, and/or combinations thereof, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
Reference herein to "an embodiment" means that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment can be included in at least one embodiment of the invention. The appearances of the phrase in various places in the specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment, nor are separate or alternative embodiments mutually exclusive of other embodiments. It is explicitly and implicitly understood by one skilled in the art that the embodiments described herein can be combined with other embodiments.
Referring to fig. 1, the distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment system based on data analysis comprises a server, wherein the server is in communication connection with a basic risk analysis unit, an execution risk prediction unit, an emergent risk analysis unit and a profit period analysis unit, and the server is in bidirectional communication connection with the basic risk analysis unit, the execution risk prediction unit, the emergent risk analysis unit and the profit period analysis unit;
the server generates a basic risk analysis signal and sends the basic risk analysis signal to the basic risk analysis unit, and after the basic risk analysis unit receives the basic risk analysis signal, the basic risk analysis unit carries out basic risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction, namely carries out risk analysis on hardware equipment of the photovoltaic power generation transaction, so that risk evaluation is carried out on the corresponding power generation transaction, and the problem that the power generation transaction risk is large due to abnormal risk analysis of the hardware equipment, the success rate of the photovoltaic power generation transaction is reduced, the operation of a power generator is influenced, and the power consumption quality of a user is influenced is solved;
acquiring real-time operable quantity ratio of the photovoltaic generator set and generated energy average transmission fault frequency of the photovoltaic generator set, and respectively marking the real-time operable quantity ratio of the photovoltaic generator set and the generated energy average transmission fault frequency of the photovoltaic generator set as SLZ and GZP; acquiring the ratio of the maximum transaction amount and the electricity generation amount of the photovoltaic generator set, and marking the ratio of the maximum transaction amount and the electricity generation amount of the photovoltaic generator set as DLZ;
by the formula
Acquiring a basic risk analysis coefficient X of the photovoltaic power generation transaction, wherein a1, a2 and a3 are preset proportionality coefficients, a1 is larger than a2 and larger than a3 and larger than 0, and beta is an error correction factor with a value of 0.986;
comparing the basic risk analysis coefficient X of the photovoltaic power generation transaction with a basic risk analysis coefficient threshold value:
if the basic risk analysis coefficient X of the photovoltaic power generation transaction exceeds the basic risk analysis coefficient threshold, judging that the basic risk analysis of the photovoltaic power generation transaction is qualified, generating a basic low risk signal and sending the basic low risk signal to a server; if the basic risk analysis coefficient X of the photovoltaic power generation transaction does not exceed the basic risk analysis coefficient threshold, determining that the basic risk analysis of the photovoltaic power generation transaction is unqualified, generating a basic high risk signal and sending the basic high risk signal to a server; after receiving the basic high-risk signal, the server manages and controls the corresponding photovoltaic generator set, so that the operation efficiency and the power generation amount are improved, and the cost of electric quantity transmission is reduced;
after the server receives the basic low-risk signal, the server judges that the current photovoltaic power generation transaction is executable, simultaneously generates an execution risk prediction signal and sends the execution risk prediction signal to an execution risk prediction unit, and the execution risk prediction unit performs execution risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction after receiving the execution risk prediction signal, and judges whether the execution risk of the photovoltaic power generation transaction is normal or not, so that the photovoltaic power generation transaction is abnormal in the execution process, the transaction efficiency is reduced, the normal profit of a power generator is influenced, the power consumption quality of a user is reduced, and the operation cost of the power generator is increased;
analyzing a photovoltaic generator set, setting B detection time points in the historical operation process of the photovoltaic generator set, acquiring the profit value of each detection time point according to data acquisition, acquiring the corresponding profit value according to the expenditure of the detection time point to obtain the profit value of the detection time point, and acquiring a profit value floating interval according to the profit values of the B detection time points, wherein B is a quantity threshold;
marking the detection time point corresponding to the minimum profit value in the profit value floating interval as an analysis time point, acquiring the profit average reduction speed of three detection time points adjacent to the left of the analysis time point and the profit difference value of the analysis time point and the right adjacent detection time point, and marking the profit average reduction speed of the three detection time points adjacent to the left of the analysis time point as a low profit risk speed; marking the profit difference between the analysis time point and the right adjacent detection time point as the profit span to be improved;
the method comprises the following steps of collecting the average reduction speed of the profit of three detection time points adjacent to the left of the current detection time point and the predicted profit increase value of the power generation transaction of the current detection time point and the left adjacent detection time point, and analyzing the average reduction speed of the profit of the three detection time points adjacent to the left of the current detection time point and the predicted profit increase value of the power generation transaction of the current detection time point and the left adjacent detection time point:
if the average reduction speed of the profits of three detection time points adjacent to the left of the current detection time point exceeds the low profit risk speed, or the predicted profit growth value of the power generation transaction of the current detection time point and the left detection time point does not exceed the profit span to be promoted, judging that the execution risk of the current photovoltaic power generation transaction is high, generating an execution high risk signal and sending the execution high risk signal to a server, and after receiving the execution high risk signal, the server stably operates the current photovoltaic power generation set, reduces the shutdown frequency, controls the generated energy of the current task, and reduces the generated energy with high cost;
if the average reduction speed of the profits of the three detection time points adjacent to the left of the current detection time point does not exceed the low-profit risk speed, and the predicted profit growth value of the power generation transaction of the current detection time point and the left detection time point exceeds the profit span to be increased, determining that the current photovoltaic power generation transaction execution risk is low, generating an execution low-risk signal and sending the execution low-risk signal to a server;
after receiving the execution low-risk signal, the server generates an emergent risk analysis signal and sends the emergent risk analysis signal to an emergent risk analysis unit, and after receiving the emergent risk analysis signal, the emergent risk analysis unit performs emergent risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, judges whether the external influence risk is normal in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, prevents the photovoltaic power generation transaction from being influenced by the external influence, reduces the qualification rate of the photovoltaic power generation transaction, so that the photovoltaic power generation cannot be timely influenced by the external influence, and reduces the stability of the photovoltaic power generation evading transaction;
acquiring the reduction span of photovoltaic power generation in the transaction process of photovoltaic power generation and the increase speed of electric quantity demand in the transaction process of photovoltaic power generation according to weather forecast, and comparing the reduction span of photovoltaic power generation in the transaction process of photovoltaic power generation and the increase speed of electric quantity demand in the transaction process of photovoltaic power generation with a reduction span threshold value and an increase speed threshold value respectively:
it can be understood that the weather influences the lighting duration to cause the risk of the reduction of the power generation amount to increase, and the temperature increase causes the increase speed of the power demand to increase;
if the reduction span of the photovoltaic power generation amount in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process exceeds a reduction span threshold value or the increase speed of the electric quantity demand in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process exceeds an increase speed threshold value, judging that the sudden risk analysis of the photovoltaic power generation transaction is unqualified, generating a sudden high risk signal and sending the sudden high risk signal to a server, after receiving the sudden high risk signal, the server manages and controls the current photovoltaic power generation transaction, reasonably distributes the required electric quantity at the corresponding moment when the power generation amount is reduced, and simultaneously improves the power generation amount and increases the electric quantity reserve when the speed of the electric quantity demand is increased;
if the reduction span of the photovoltaic power generation amount in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process does not exceed the reduction span threshold value and the increase speed of the electric quantity demand in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process does not exceed the increase speed threshold value, judging that the sudden risk analysis of the photovoltaic power generation transaction is qualified, generating a sudden low risk signal and sending the sudden low risk signal to a server;
after receiving the burst low-risk signal, the server generates a profit period analysis signal and sends the profit period analysis signal to a profit period analysis unit, and after receiving the profit period analysis signal, the profit period analysis unit analyzes each profit period in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process and judges whether the profit is reasonable or not in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, so that the profit stability of the photovoltaic power generation transaction is ensured, a power generator can be ensured to operate stably, meanwhile, the adjustment can be carried out in time when the profit has risk, and the loss is reduced to the maximum extent;
the method comprises the following steps of collecting a time period of photovoltaic power generation transaction, dividing the time period into three sub-time periods according to transaction amount, wherein the three sub-time periods are respectively a peak period, a peak-leveling period and a valley period, collecting the maximum floating span of the corresponding profit ratio of the adjacent sub-time periods and the maximum profit ratio difference of the non-adjacent sub-time periods, and comparing the maximum floating span of the corresponding profit ratio of the adjacent sub-time periods and the maximum profit ratio difference of the non-adjacent sub-time periods with a floating span threshold value and a profit ratio difference threshold value respectively: the profit ratio is expressed as the profit ratio and the profit-cost ratio of different sub-time periods, and the investment cost increases along with the increase of the transaction amount in the high peak period, so the profit ratio of each sub-time period can accurately reflect the profit risk of the current time period;
if the maximum floating span of the corresponding profit ratio of the adjacent sub-time periods exceeds the floating span threshold value or the maximum profit ratio difference value of the non-adjacent sub-time periods exceeds the profit ratio difference threshold value, judging that the profit period analysis in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process is unqualified, generating a profit risk signal and sending the profit risk signal to a server, after receiving the profit risk signal, the server supervises the corresponding photovoltaic power generation transaction process, obtains the influence factors of the profit reduction and adjusts the influence factors, and if the unit maintenance cost is increased, the unit maintenance cost is controlled;
if the maximum floating span of the income ratio corresponding to the adjacent sub-time periods does not exceed the floating span threshold value and the maximum income ratio difference value of the non-adjacent sub-time periods does not exceed the income ratio difference value threshold value, judging that the income time period analysis in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process is qualified, generating an income safety signal and sending the income safety signal to a server;
a distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method based on data analysis comprises the following steps:
step one, basic risk analysis, namely performing basic risk analysis on photovoltaic power generation transactions, namely performing risk analysis on hardware equipment of the photovoltaic power generation transactions to obtain basic risk analysis coefficients of the photovoltaic power generation transactions, and comparing and judging whether basic risks exist according to the basic risk analysis coefficients;
performing risk prediction, namely performing risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction, analyzing the photovoltaic generator set, and comparing and judging whether an execution risk exists or not through the photovoltaic generator set data analysis;
thirdly, carrying out sudden risk analysis, namely carrying out sudden risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, and judging whether sudden risk exists or not through analysis;
and step four, analyzing each profit period in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process by a profit period analyzing unit, acquiring the photovoltaic power generation transaction period, dividing the period into three sub-periods according to the transaction amount, wherein the three sub-periods are respectively a peak period, a peak leveling period and a valley period, and judging whether the profit period has risks or not through analysis.
The formulas are all obtained by acquiring a large amount of data and performing software simulation, and a formula close to a true value is selected, and coefficients in the formulas are set by a person skilled in the art according to actual conditions;
when the photovoltaic power generation transaction risk analysis system is used, basic risk analysis is carried out on photovoltaic power generation transactions through the basic risk analysis unit, basic risk analysis coefficients of the photovoltaic power generation transactions are obtained, basic low-risk signals and basic high-risk signals are generated according to comparison of the basic risk analysis coefficients, and the basic low-risk signals and the basic high-risk signals are sent to the server; performing execution risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction through the execution risk prediction unit, analyzing the photovoltaic power generation unit, generating an execution high risk signal and an execution low risk signal through analysis, and sending the execution high risk signal and the execution low risk signal to the server; carrying out burst risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction process through a burst risk analysis unit, generating a burst high risk signal and a burst low risk signal through analysis, and sending the signals to a server; the method comprises the steps of analyzing each profit period in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process through a profit period analysis unit, collecting the time period of the photovoltaic power generation transaction, dividing the time period into three sub-time periods according to transaction amount, wherein the three sub-time periods are respectively a peak period, a flat peak period and a low valley period, generating a profit risk signal and a profit safety signal through analysis, and sending the profit risk signal and the profit safety signal to a server.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention, and various modifications and changes may be made by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement or the like which would be made by a person skilled in the art without inventive efforts and which would be within the spirit and principle of the present invention shall be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method based on data analysis is characterized by comprising the following steps:
performing basic risk analysis on photovoltaic power generation transactions, performing risk analysis on hardware equipment related to the transactions, acquiring basic risk analysis coefficients of the photovoltaic power generation transactions, and comparing and judging whether basic risks exist according to the basic risk analysis coefficients;
carrying out execution risk analysis on photovoltaic power generation transaction, analyzing a photovoltaic power generation unit, determining relevant data of a profit value floating area, and analyzing, comparing and judging whether execution risk exists or not;
carrying out sudden risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, analyzing and judging the relation between the reduction span of the photovoltaic power generation amount and the threshold thereof, and the increase speed of the electric quantity demand and the threshold thereof in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process so as to determine the sudden risk of the transaction;
analyzing each income time interval in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, and judging whether the income ratio of each income time interval has risk or not;
and prompting corresponding risks according to various risk results.
2. The data analysis-based distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the basic risk analysis is performed, and the specific process of performing risk analysis on hardware devices related to transactions comprises:
acquiring the real-time operable quantity ratio of the photovoltaic generator set, the generated energy average transmission fault frequency of the photovoltaic generator set and the ratio of the maximum transaction amount and the generated energy amount of the photovoltaic generator set;
if the basic risk analysis coefficient of the photovoltaic power generation transaction exceeds the basic risk analysis coefficient threshold, generating a basic low risk signal and transmitting the basic low risk signal; and if the basic risk analysis coefficient of the photovoltaic power generation transaction does not exceed the basic risk analysis coefficient threshold value, generating a basic high risk signal.
3. The distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method based on data analysis as claimed in claim 1, wherein the data related to the profit margin floating area in the process of performing risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction comprises:
setting a plurality of detection time points in the historical operation process of the photovoltaic generator set, acquiring the profit value of each detection time point according to data acquisition, acquiring the corresponding profit value according to the expenditure of the detection time point to the profit value of the detection time point, and acquiring a profit value floating interval according to the profit value of each detection time point;
the minimum profit value in the profit value floating interval is marked as an analysis time point corresponding to the detection time point, the average profit reduction speed of the adjacent N detection time points in front of the analysis time point is collected, namely the low profit risk speed, and the profit difference value between the analysis time point and the adjacent N detection time points in back is marked as the profit span to be increased, and N is a set value.
4. The distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method based on data analysis as claimed in claim 3, wherein the process of performing risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction comprises: the average reduction rate of the profit of the previous adjacent N detection time points of the current detection time point and the predicted profit increase value of the power generation transaction of the current detection time point and the previous adjacent N detection time points are collected and analyzed:
and if the average profit reduction speed of the previous adjacent N detection time points of the current detection time point exceeds the low profit risk speed, or the predicted profit growth value of the power generation transaction of the current detection time point and the previous adjacent N detection time points does not exceed the profit to be increased span, judging that the current photovoltaic power generation transaction execution risk is high, and generating an execution high risk signal.
5. The method according to claim 3, wherein if the average decreasing speed of the profit at the time of detecting N adjacent to the current detection time does not exceed the low profit risk speed and the expected profit increase value of the power generation transaction at the time of detecting N adjacent to the current detection time exceeds the profit span to be increased, it is determined that the current photovoltaic power generation transaction is low in execution risk, and a low-risk execution signal is generated and executed.
6. The distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method based on data analysis as claimed in claim 1, wherein the specific process of performing the sudden risk analysis includes: acquiring a reduction span of photovoltaic power generation amount in a photovoltaic power generation transaction process and an increase speed of electric quantity demand in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, and comparing the reduction span and the increase speed with a reduction span threshold value and an increase speed threshold value respectively;
if the reduction span of the photovoltaic power generation amount in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process exceeds a reduction span threshold value or the increase speed of the electric quantity demand amount in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process exceeds an increase speed threshold value, generating an emergent high-risk signal and transmitting the emergent high-risk signal;
and if the reduction span of the photovoltaic power generation amount in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process does not exceed the reduction span threshold value and the increase speed of the electric quantity demand in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process does not exceed the increase speed threshold value, generating an emergent low-risk signal and transmitting the emergent low-risk signal.
7. The distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment method based on data analysis as claimed in claim 1, wherein the specific process of the profit period analysis comprises:
acquiring a time period of photovoltaic power generation transaction, dividing the time period into three sub-time periods which are a peak period, a peak-leveling period and a valley period respectively according to transaction amount, acquiring the maximum floating span of the corresponding profit ratios of the adjacent sub-time periods and the maximum profit ratio difference of the non-adjacent sub-time periods, and comparing the maximum floating span of the corresponding profit ratios of the adjacent sub-time periods and the maximum profit ratio difference of the non-adjacent sub-time periods with a floating span threshold and a profit ratio difference threshold respectively;
if the maximum floating span of the income ratio corresponding to the adjacent sub-time periods exceeds the floating span threshold value or the maximum income ratio difference value of the non-adjacent sub-time periods exceeds the income ratio difference value threshold value, judging that the income time period analysis in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process is unqualified, generating an income risk signal and generating an income risk signal;
and if the maximum floating span of the income ratio corresponding to the adjacent sub-time periods does not exceed the floating span threshold value and the maximum income ratio difference value of the non-adjacent sub-time periods does not exceed the income ratio difference value threshold value, judging that the income time period analysis in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process is qualified, generating an income safety signal and sending the income safety signal.
8. A distributed photovoltaic power generation transaction risk assessment system based on data analysis is characterized by comprising:
the basic risk analysis unit is used for carrying out basic risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction, carrying out risk analysis on hardware equipment related to the transaction, obtaining a basic risk analysis coefficient of the photovoltaic power generation transaction, and comparing and judging whether a basic risk exists according to the basic risk analysis coefficient;
the execution risk prediction unit is used for carrying out execution risk analysis on photovoltaic power generation transactions, analyzing the photovoltaic power generation units, determining relevant data of the profit value floating area, and analyzing, comparing and judging whether execution risks exist or not;
the emergency risk analysis unit is used for carrying out emergency risk analysis on the photovoltaic power generation transaction process, analyzing and judging the relation between the reduction span of the photovoltaic power generation amount and the threshold value thereof and the increasing speed of the electric quantity demand and the threshold value thereof in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process so as to determine the emergency risk of the transaction;
the profit time interval analysis unit is used for analyzing each profit time interval in the photovoltaic power generation transaction process and judging whether the profit ratio of each time interval of the profit time has risks or not;
and the processing module is connected with other analysis units and used for prompting corresponding risks according to various risk results.
9. A computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions which, when executed by a processor, perform the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 6.
10. An electronic device comprising a memory and a processor and computer instructions stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the computer instructions when executed by the processor performing the steps of the method of any of claims 1-6.
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| CN116128167A (en) * | 2023-04-17 | 2023-05-16 | 江苏图南数字科技有限公司 | Distributed photovoltaic power generation analysis method based on cloud computing real-time monitoring |
| CN117013606A (en) * | 2023-08-14 | 2023-11-07 | 欧米勒电气有限公司 | Intelligent energy storage control system for photovoltaic power generation based on artificial intelligence |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN116128167A (en) * | 2023-04-17 | 2023-05-16 | 江苏图南数字科技有限公司 | Distributed photovoltaic power generation analysis method based on cloud computing real-time monitoring |
| CN116128167B (en) * | 2023-04-17 | 2023-06-16 | 江苏图南数字科技有限公司 | Distributed photovoltaic power generation analysis method based on cloud computing real-time monitoring |
| CN117013606A (en) * | 2023-08-14 | 2023-11-07 | 欧米勒电气有限公司 | Intelligent energy storage control system for photovoltaic power generation based on artificial intelligence |
| CN117013606B (en) * | 2023-08-14 | 2024-05-17 | 欧米勒电气有限公司 | Intelligent energy storage control system for photovoltaic power generation based on artificial intelligence |
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