CN115879976A - Carbon neutralization simulation method and terminal - Google Patents

Carbon neutralization simulation method and terminal Download PDF

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CN115879976A
CN115879976A CN202211541109.7A CN202211541109A CN115879976A CN 115879976 A CN115879976 A CN 115879976A CN 202211541109 A CN202211541109 A CN 202211541109A CN 115879976 A CN115879976 A CN 115879976A
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carbon
fitting
carbon emission
sink
forest
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陈柯任
郑楠
项康利
杜翼
李益楠
陈思敏
蔡期塬
李源非
施鹏佳
陈晚晴
陈津莼
陈晗
林晓凡
林昶咏
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State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co Ltd
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co Ltd
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a carbon neutralization simulation method and a terminal, which are used for measuring and calculating the carbon emission of an electric power system to obtain a measuring and calculating result of the carbon emission of the electric power system; fitting and predicting the carbon collection amount to obtain a carbon collection prediction result; predicting the total carbon emission of the whole society to obtain a total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society, and establishing a proportion relation between the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system and the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society; and simulating a carbon neutralization route based on the proportion relation, the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society and the carbon sink prediction result to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result, and performing simulation analysis on the carbon neutralization route by combining carbon source and carbon sink analysis, so that the carbon neutralization route can be determined more comprehensively and effectively, the balanced development of economic and social development and power supply safety can be realized, and the effective and reliable carbon neutralization route can be realized.

Description

Carbon neutralization simulation method and terminal
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of carbon neutralization, in particular to a carbon neutralization simulation method and a terminal.
Background
To cope with climate change, it has become a world consensus to control global carbon emissions. The measure mainly aims at climate disaster carbon generated in the use process of fossil energy, realizes carbon peak reaching and carbon neutralization, and mainly reduces the carbon emission. The carbon emission of the power system accounts for about half of the carbon emission of the whole society, accounts for about 80% of the carbon emission of energy consumption, and is a head-ranked soldier and an important landing scene for realizing a double-carbon target. The front end of the power system draws the consumption of an energy main body to directly generate carbon emission, the terminal is connected with the production of the whole industry and the consumption of residents, the change of a power consumption structure can directly monitor the adjustment of the carbon emission structure of the terminal, and the carbon emission change of the power system closely influences the fluctuation of the carbon emission curve of the whole society. The reduction of carbon emission is mostly realized through efficiency improvement and structure adjustment, and the achievement of carbon neutralization cannot leave the technical breakthrough and the landing of carbon sink. The maintenance of the amount of the carbon sink is a long-term and important work, a balance point is found between economic benefit and environmental protection, at present, a lot of tests are carried out, few successful projects are carried out, and planning and conspiracy are needed to be carried out in advance. The low-carbon economy and the carbon market in China have been sprouted and developed for more than 10 years, and the development of carbon emission reduction and carbon sink is accelerated when the carbon market is rapidly developed at present. Therefore, it is important to make a flexible carbon neutralization simulation.
The existing carbon source analysis and carbon sink analysis are basically two independent analyses, aim at emission reduction and carbon fixation respectively, and rarely synthesize the two for balance analysis, so that a better carbon neutralization curve path is difficult to realize.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is as follows: the carbon neutralization simulation method and the terminal are provided, and an effective and reliable carbon neutralization route can be realized.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts a technical scheme that:
a carbon neutralization simulation method comprises the following steps:
measuring and calculating the carbon emission of the power system to obtain a carbon emission measuring and calculating result of the power system;
fitting and predicting the carbon sequestration amount to obtain a carbon sequestration prediction result;
predicting the total carbon emission of the whole society to obtain a total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society, and establishing a proportion relation between the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system and the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society;
and simulating a carbon neutralization route based on the proportion relation, the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society and the carbon sink prediction result to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result.
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention adopts another technical scheme as follows:
a carbon neutralization simulation terminal comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the following steps when executing the computer program:
measuring and calculating the carbon emission of the power system to obtain a measuring and calculating result of the carbon emission of the power system;
fitting and predicting the carbon sequestration amount to obtain a carbon sequestration prediction result;
predicting the total carbon emission of the whole society to obtain a total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society, and establishing a proportion relation between the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system and the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society;
and simulating a carbon neutralization route based on the proportion relation, the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society and the carbon sink prediction result to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: the method comprises the steps of measuring and calculating carbon emission of an electric power system to obtain a carbon emission measuring and calculating result of the electric power system, fitting and predicting the total carbon emission amount to obtain a carbon sink prediction result, predicting the total carbon emission amount of the whole society to obtain a total carbon emission amount prediction result of the whole society, establishing a proportion relation between the carbon emission measuring and calculating result of the electric power system and the total carbon emission amount prediction result of the whole society, simulating a carbon neutralization route based on the proportion relation, the total carbon emission amount prediction result of the whole society and the carbon sink prediction result to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result, and performing simulation analysis on the carbon neutralization route by combining with analysis of a carbon source and the carbon sink.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the steps of a carbon neutralization simulation method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a carbon neutralization simulation terminal according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of a simulation flow in a carbon neutralization simulation method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to explain technical contents, achieved objects, and effects of the present invention in detail, the following description is made with reference to the accompanying drawings in combination with the embodiments.
Referring to fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides a carbon neutralization simulation method, including:
measuring and calculating the carbon emission of the power system to obtain a carbon emission measuring and calculating result of the power system;
fitting and predicting the carbon sequestration amount to obtain a carbon sequestration prediction result;
predicting the total carbon emission of the whole society to obtain a total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society, and establishing a proportion relation between the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system and the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society;
and simulating a carbon neutralization route based on the proportion relation, the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society and the carbon sink prediction result to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result.
As can be seen from the above description, the beneficial effects of the present invention are: the method comprises the steps of measuring and calculating carbon emission of a power system to obtain a measured and calculated result of the carbon emission of the power system, fitting and predicting the total carbon emission amount to obtain a predicted carbon sink result, predicting the total carbon emission amount of the whole society to obtain a predicted total carbon emission amount of the whole society, establishing a proportion relation between the measured and calculated result of the carbon emission of the power system and the predicted total carbon emission amount of the whole society, simulating a carbon neutralization route based on the proportion relation, the predicted total carbon emission amount of the whole society and the predicted carbon sink result to obtain a simulation result of the carbon neutralization route, and performing simulation analysis on the carbon neutralization route by combining with analysis of a carbon source and the carbon sink.
Further, the calculating the carbon emission of the power system to obtain the carbon emission calculation result of the power system includes:
measuring and calculating carbon emission of the generator sets in the region to obtain a carbon emission measuring and calculating result of the generator sets in the region;
measuring and calculating the carbon emission of the inter-regional exchange electric quantity to obtain a measuring and calculating result of the carbon emission of the inter-regional exchange electric quantity;
measuring and calculating the carbon emission in electric power transportation to obtain a measuring and calculating result of the carbon emission in electric power transportation;
and obtaining a carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system according to the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the generator sets in the areas, the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the inter-area exchange electric quantity and the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power transportation.
According to the description, when the carbon emission of the power system is measured and calculated, the carbon emission of the generator set in the region, the carbon emission of the inter-region exchange electric quantity and the carbon emission of power transportation are comprehensively considered, so that the predicted carbon emission result of the power system is more comprehensive and accurate.
Further, the carbon emission of the generator set in the region is measured and calculated, and the obtaining of the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the generator set in the region comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003977684930000041
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000042
representing the results of carbon emission measurements, X, of the power generating units in the area 1 A first row vector representing 1 x 3 dimensions, Y a second row vector representing 1 x 3 dimensions, and/or a combination thereof>
Figure BDA0003977684930000043
Indicating the standard amount of coal consumption of the coal-fired unit during the power generation process of the t year,
Figure BDA0003977684930000044
fuel consumption standard for fuel oil unit in the process of generating power in the t yearQuasi amount->
Figure BDA0003977684930000045
The standard quantity of gas consumption of a gas unit in the power generation process in the t year is represented, the carbon emission factor of coal consumption is represented, the carbon emission factor of oil consumption is represented, the carbon emission factor of gas consumption is represented, and t represents the year;
the method for measuring and calculating the carbon emission of the inter-regional exchange electric quantity comprises the following steps of:
Figure BDA0003977684930000046
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000047
measurement and calculation results of carbon emission of electric quantity exchanged among the indicated areas, X 2 A third row vector, representing 1 x 3 dimensions, is/are based on>
Figure BDA0003977684930000048
Represents the standard amount of coal consumption of the coal-fired unit in the area exchange electricity of the t year, and is/are>
Figure BDA0003977684930000049
Represents the standard oil consumption amount of the fuel oil unit in the area exchange electric quantity of the t year, and the combination of the standard oil consumption amount and the standard oil consumption amount>
Figure BDA00039776849300000410
The used gas consumption standard quantity of the gas turbine set in the area exchange electricity in the t year is represented;
the method for measuring and calculating the carbon emission in power transportation to obtain the measurement and calculation result of the carbon emission in power transportation comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA00039776849300000411
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00039776849300000412
representing the results of the carbon emission measurements in electric power transportation, X 3 A fourth row vector, representing 1 x 3 dimensions, which is based on a characteristic value>
Figure BDA00039776849300000413
Represents a standard quantity of coal consumed in the power transportation, based on the measured value>
Figure BDA00039776849300000414
Represents a standard quantity of oil consumption used in the transportation of electric power, based on the measured value>
Figure BDA00039776849300000415
Representing a standard amount of gas consumption used in electric power transportation;
the step of obtaining the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system according to the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the generator set in the region, the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the inter-region exchange electric quantity and the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power transportation comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA00039776849300000416
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00039776849300000417
and (4) representing the carbon emission measurement result of the power system.
According to the description, the carbon emission of the generator sets in the areas is calculated according to the carbon emission factor of the fuel consumed by the generator sets, the carbon emission of the power generation of different generator sets is calculated and is calculated as the carbon emission of the production side, the carbon emission of the inter-area exchange power is predicted according to the consumption of coal, oil and gas used in the area exchange power, the power generated by the power plant is transmitted to the user side through a power grid line, the power is consumed in the process, namely the line loss power, so the carbon emission of the power transportation is calculated according to the consumption of the coal, the oil and the gas used in the power transportation, the carbon emission of the power system obtained through calculation is more consistent with the actual scene, and the accuracy of the carbon emission calculation of the power system is improved.
Further, the fitting prediction of the carbon sequestration amount to obtain a carbon sequestration prediction result comprises:
acquiring historical forest carbon sink data, and performing fitting prediction on the historical forest carbon sink data to obtain a predicted forest carbon sink value;
obtaining ocean carbon sequestration historical data, and performing fitting prediction on the ocean carbon sequestration historical data to obtain an ocean carbon sequestration predicted value;
acquiring CCUS historical data, and performing fitting prediction on the CCUS historical data to obtain a CCUS predicted value;
and obtaining a carbon sink prediction result according to the forest carbon sink prediction value, the ocean carbon sink prediction value and the CCUS prediction value.
From the above description, fitting prediction is performed on forest carbon sequestration, ocean carbon sequestration and CCUS (carbon capture, utilization and sequestration) respectively to obtain a prediction result of carbon sequestration, so that the carbon sequestration and the carbon emission are combined together to realize carbon neutralization simulation, and the reliability of the carbon neutralization simulation is improved.
Further, the fitting prediction of the forest carbon sequestration historical data to obtain a forest carbon sequestration predicted value includes:
fitting the forest carbon sink historical data by using a linear curve to obtain a first forest carbon sink fitting value;
fitting the forest carbon sink historical data by using a quadratic curve to obtain a second forest carbon sink fitting value;
fitting the forest carbon sink historical data by using a logarithmic curve to obtain a third forest carbon sink fitting value;
respectively calculating variances between the first forest carbon sink fitting value, the second forest carbon sink fitting value and the third forest carbon sink fitting value and corresponding actual values, and determining a first fitting weight corresponding to the first forest carbon sink fitting value, a second fitting weight corresponding to the second forest carbon sink fitting value and a third fitting weight corresponding to the third forest carbon sink fitting value according to the variances;
obtaining a predicted forest carbon sink value according to the first forest carbon sink fitting value, the second forest carbon sink fitting value, the third forest carbon sink fitting value, the first fitting weight, the second fitting weight and the third fitting weight;
and displaying the forest carbon sink predicted value in a mode of combining an area graph and a line graph.
According to the description, fitting prediction is carried out on forest carbon sinks by using different methods, and the prediction result is displayed, so that the numerical value and the speed increase of the forest carbon sinks in the whole area can be known, and subsequent carbon neutralization is facilitated.
Further, the fitting the forest carbon sink historical data by using a linear curve to obtain a first forest carbon sink fitting value comprises:
Figure BDA0003977684930000061
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000062
representing a first forest carbon sink fitting value, alpha representing a first coefficient to be fitted, t representing year, and c representing a first intercept term;
the secondary curve is used for fitting the forest carbon sink historical data, and the second forest carbon sink fitting value is obtained by:
Figure BDA0003977684930000063
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000064
representing a second forest carbon sink fitting value and representing a second coefficient to be fitted;
the step of fitting the forest carbon sink historical data by using a logarithmic curve to obtain a third forest carbon sink fitting value comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003977684930000065
/>
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000066
representing a third forest carbon sink fit value;
the obtaining of the predicted forest carbon sink value according to the first forest carbon sink fitting value, the second forest carbon sink fitting value, the third forest carbon sink fitting value, the first fitting weight, the second fitting weight and the third fitting weight comprises:
Figure BDA0003977684930000067
in the formula, FCS t Indicates predicted value of forest carbon sink, xi LF Representing said first fitting weight, ξ QLF Representing said second fitting weight, ξ LCF Representing the third fitting weight.
According to the description, the fitting weight is determined according to the variance between the fitting values and the actual values of different fitting methods, and finally the predicted value of the future forest carbon sink is calculated, so that the accuracy and the reliability of forest carbon sink prediction can be improved.
Further, the predicting the total carbon emission of the whole society to obtain the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society comprises:
Figure BDA0003977684930000071
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000072
representing the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society, c' represents a second intercept term, alpha 1 represents a third coefficient to be fitted, and alpha 2 Denotes the fourth coefficient of fit, α 3 Denotes the fifth coefficient of fit, α 4 Denotes the sixth coefficient to be fitted, P t Representing the number of people in year t, based on the number of people in year t>
Figure BDA0003977684930000073
Means to indicate the average of the people in the t year GDP->
Figure BDA0003977684930000074
Represents the strength of energy consumption in the t year>
Figure BDA0003977684930000075
Representing the energy consumption carbon emission intensity of the t year, wherein epsilon represents a random disturbance term;
the proportion relation gamma between the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system and the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society t Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003977684930000076
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000077
and representing the power system carbon emission measurement result.
According to the description, the carbon dioxide emission depends on four determination factors of population, per-capita GDP, unit GDP energy consumption and unit energy consumption emission factors, and the total social carbon emission prediction result calculated according to the four determination factors can meet the total social carbon emission of future economic and social development, so that the carbon neutralization route can be conveniently determined based on the total social carbon emission.
Further, the simulating the carbon neutralization route based on the proportion relation, the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society and the carbon sink prediction result to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result comprises:
determining the net carbon emission according to the total carbon emission prediction result and the carbon sink prediction result of the whole society;
if the carbon emission net amount is less than or equal to a first preset value, a carbon neutralization state is achieved;
and if the net carbon emission amount is larger than a first preset value, determining a key index influencing carbon emission, and reducing the carbon emission amount according to the key index until the net carbon emission amount tends to the first preset value under the condition that the proportion relation tends to be stable, so as to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result.
According to the description, whether the carbon emission net amount is in the carbon neutralization state or not can be judged more accurately based on the carbon emission net amount, and a carbon neutralization route simulation result can be obtained conveniently.
Further, the determining a key index affecting carbon emission, and reducing carbon emission according to the key index until the carbon emission net amount tends to the first preset value under the condition that the proportion relation tends to a steady state, and obtaining a carbon neutralization route simulation result includes:
determining a main carbon source and key indexes corresponding to the main carbon source;
determining the adjustable range of the key indexes according to the structure and the upper limit of the main carbon source, and determining the unit adjustment cost corresponding to each key index to obtain the total adjustment cost;
and under the condition that the proportion relation tends to a steady state, adjusting the key index according to the principle of adjusting the minimum total cost until the net carbon emission amount tends to the first preset value to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result.
According to the description, the carbon neutralization simulation result obtained by the method adjusts the key indexes to reduce carbon emission under the condition of considering economic cost until the carbon neutralization state is reached, and an effective and reliable carbon neutralization route can be realized, so that a power system construction development strategy under the constraint of double carbon targets is provided, and a novel power system construction decision is supported.
Referring to fig. 2, another embodiment of the present invention provides a carbon neutralization simulation terminal, which includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, where the processor executes the computer program to implement the steps of the carbon neutralization simulation method.
The carbon neutralization simulation method and the terminal of the invention can be applied to sand table simulation of carbon neutralization, and are explained by the following specific embodiments:
example one
Referring to fig. 1 and fig. 3, a carbon neutralization simulation method of the present embodiment includes the steps of:
s1, measuring and calculating carbon emission of a power system to obtain a measuring and calculating result of the carbon emission of the power system, and specifically comprising the following steps:
s11, measuring and calculating carbon emission of the generator set in the region to obtain a measuring and calculating result of the carbon emission of the generator set in the region, specifically:
Figure BDA0003977684930000091
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000092
shows the carbon emission measurement and calculation results of the generator set in the region, X 1 A first row vector representing 1 x 3 dimensions, Y a second row vector representing 1 x 3 dimensions, and/or a combination thereof>
Figure BDA0003977684930000093
Represents the standard coal consumption quantity of the coal-fired unit in the power generation process of the t year, and is used for judging whether the standard coal consumption quantity is greater than or equal to the standard coal consumption quantity>
Figure BDA0003977684930000094
Represents the fuel consumption standard quantity of the fuel oil unit in the power generation process of the t year, and is used for judging whether the fuel oil unit is used for storing the fuel oil in the power generation process of the t year>
Figure BDA0003977684930000095
Indicating the standard gas consumption of the gas turbine set in the process of generating power in the t year C Carbon rejection factor, η, representing coal consumption O Carbon emission factor, η, representing fuel consumption G Carbon rejection factor representing gas consumption, t represents year;
the power generating set comprises 8 types such as a coal-fired set, a gas-fired set, a fuel oil set, a wind generating set, a photovoltaic generating set, a nuclear power generating set, a hydroelectric generating set and other sets. As shown in fig. 3, since carbon emissions are not directly generated by wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, nuclear power generation, hydroelectric power generation, other units, and the like, only carbon emissions of three units of coal, gas, and fuel are calculated here.
The fuel consumed by the coal-fired unit, the gas-fired unit and the oil-fired unit is calculated according to the installed capacity, the average utilization hours of equipment and the unit power consumption energy, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003977684930000096
Figure BDA0003977684930000097
Figure BDA0003977684930000098
Figure BDA0003977684930000099
Figure BDA00039776849300000910
/>
Figure BDA00039776849300000911
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00039776849300000912
represents the power generation amount delta of the coal-fired unit in the t year C Represents the unit electricity consumption energy of the coal-fired unit, I C1，t Expressing installed capacity of coal-fired unit in the t year, H C1，t Represents the average utilization hours of the equipment of the coal-fired unit in the t year, and is used for storing and storing the number of hours>
Figure BDA00039776849300000913
Represents the power generation amount delta of the fuel oil unit in the t year O Representing the unit electricity consumption energy of the fuel oil unit，I O1，t Shows the installed capacity of the fuel oil unit in the t year H O1，t Represents the average utilization hours of the fuel unit in the t year>
Figure BDA00039776849300000914
Represents the power generation amount, delta, of the gas turbine set in the t year G Represents the unit power consumption of the gas turbine unit, I G1，t Represents the installed capacity of the gas turbine set in the t year, H G1，t The average utilization hours of the gas turbine set in the t year is shown.
S12, measuring and calculating the carbon emission of the inter-regional exchange electric quantity to obtain a measuring and calculating result of the carbon emission of the inter-regional exchange electric quantity;
specifically, the power exchanged between the regions can be divided into the power input outside the region and the power supply outside the region. According to the principle of who uses and who discharges, the carbon emission of the input electricity outside the area is a positive value, and the carbon emission is measured and calculated according to the electric quantity components of the source unit. The carbon emission of the regional external power supply is a negative value, and the carbon emission is measured and calculated according to the power components of the power supply unit. If the unit type can be determined by the inter-area exchange electric quantity, the measurement and calculation are carried out according to the carbon emission measurement and calculation method corresponding to the unit type, and the measurement and calculation idea is the same as that of S11. If the unit type cannot be determined, calculating according to the power supply structure of the region, wherein the formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003977684930000101
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000102
represents the measurement result of carbon emission of the exchange electric quantity between the areas, and X2 represents a third row vector with 1X 3 dimensions, and/or the value of the judgment result of the carbon emission of the exchange electric quantity between the areas>
Figure BDA0003977684930000103
Represents the standard amount of coal consumption of the coal-fired unit in the area exchange electricity of the t year, and is/are>
Figure BDA0003977684930000104
Represents the used oil consumption standard quantity of the fuel oil unit in the area exchange electric quantity of the t year, and is used for judging whether the oil consumption standard quantity is greater than or equal to the preset value>
Figure BDA0003977684930000105
The used gas consumption standard quantity of the gas turbine set in the area exchange electricity in the t year is represented;
Figure BDA0003977684930000106
Figure BDA0003977684930000107
Figure BDA0003977684930000108
Figure BDA0003977684930000109
Figure BDA00039776849300001010
Figure BDA00039776849300001011
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00039776849300001012
represents the regional exchange electric quantity of the coal-fired unit in the t year, Q C2，t Representing the generated energy of the coal-fired unit of the power grid of the power supply side in the t year Q t ' represents the total power generation amount of all units of the power supply grid in the t year, OQ t Represents the total amount of power exchanged between the areas in the t year, -is greater than or equal to>
Figure BDA00039776849300001013
Shows the inter-regional intersection of the fuel oil units in the t yearChange of electric quantity, Q O2，t Represents the power generation amount of the fuel unit on the power grid of the power supply party in the t year, and the power generation amount of the fuel unit is combined with the power generation amount of the power supply party in the t year>
Figure BDA00039776849300001014
Represents the exchanging electric quantity between the areas of the gas turbine units in the t year, Q G2，t And the power generation amount of the gas turbine unit of the power supply side power grid in the t year is shown.
S13, measuring and calculating the carbon emission in power transportation to obtain a measuring and calculating result of the carbon emission in power transportation, wherein the electric quantity generated by a power plant is transmitted to a user side through a power grid line, and the electric quantity is also consumed in the process, namely the line loss electric quantity, so that the carbon emission of the electric quantity is measured and calculated according to the average installation structure of a regional power grid, specifically:
Figure BDA00039776849300001015
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00039776849300001016
representing the results of the carbon emission measurements in electric power transportation, X 3 Represents the fourth row vector of 1 x 3 dimensions, and>
Figure BDA0003977684930000111
represents a standard quantity of coal consumed in the power transportation, based on the measured value>
Figure BDA0003977684930000112
Represents a standard quantity of oil consumption in the transport of electric power, based on the measured quantity>
Figure BDA0003977684930000113
Representing a standard amount of gas consumption used in electric transportation;
Figure BDA0003977684930000114
Figure BDA0003977684930000115
Figure BDA0003977684930000116
Figure BDA0003977684930000117
Figure BDA0003977684930000118
Figure BDA0003977684930000119
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00039776849300001110
represents the line loss electric quantity calculated by the coal-fired unit in the t year, Q C3，t Represents the generated energy of the coal-fired unit of the regional power grid in the t year Q t Representing the total generation quantity of all the units of the local power grid in the t year, LQ t Represents the total electric quantity of line loss in the t year,
Figure BDA00039776849300001111
represents the line loss electric quantity calculated by the fuel oil unit in the t year, Q O3，t Represents the power generation amount of the fuel oil unit of the local area power grid in the t year>
Figure BDA00039776849300001112
Represents the line loss electric quantity calculated by the gas turbine set in the t year, Q G3，t And (4) representing the power generation amount of the gas turbine unit of the regional power grid in the t year.
S14, obtaining a carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system according to the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the generator set in the region, the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the inter-region exchange electric quantity and the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power transportation, as shown in FIG. 3, specifically:
Figure BDA00039776849300001113
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00039776849300001114
and (4) representing the carbon emission measurement result of the power system.
S2, fitting and predicting the carbon sequestration amount to obtain a carbon sequestration prediction result, as shown in FIG. 3, the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s21, obtaining forest carbon sequestration historical data, and performing fitting prediction on the forest carbon sequestration historical data to obtain a forest carbon sequestration predicted value, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s211, fitting the forest carbon sink historical data by using a linear curve to obtain a first forest carbon sink fitting value, specifically:
Figure BDA00039776849300001115
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00039776849300001116
representing a first forest carbon sink fitting value, alpha representing a first coefficient to be fitted, t representing year, and c representing a first intercept term;
s212, fitting the forest carbon sink historical data by using a quadratic curve to obtain a second forest carbon sink fitting value, specifically:
Figure BDA0003977684930000121
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000122
representing a second forest carbon sink fitting value, and beta represents a second coefficient to be fitted;
s213, fitting the forest carbon sink historical data by using a logarithmic curve to obtain a third forest carbon sink fitting value, specifically:
Figure BDA0003977684930000123
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000124
representing a third forest carbon sink fit value;
s214, calculating variances between the first forest carbon sequestration fitted value, the second forest carbon sequestration fitted value, and the third forest carbon sequestration fitted value and corresponding actual values, and determining a first fitting weight corresponding to the first forest carbon sequestration fitted value, a second fitting weight corresponding to the second forest carbon sequestration fitted value, and a third fitting weight corresponding to the third forest carbon sequestration fitted value according to the variances, specifically:
Figure BDA0003977684930000125
Figure BDA0003977684930000126
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000127
represents the variance between the forest carbon sink fit value under method j and the corresponding actual value, and->
Figure BDA0003977684930000128
Represents the forest carbon sink fit value under the method j, n represents the number of samples and/or the number of samples>
Figure BDA0003977684930000129
Representing the mean value of the samples, ξ j Representing the fitting weights under the j method, including ξ LF 、ξ QLF 、ξ LCF J includes a linear curve, a quadratic curve, or a logarithmic curve;
for example, if the first fitting weight is calculated, the variance between the first forest carbon sink fitting value and the corresponding actual value is calculated by substituting the first forest carbon sink fitting value, the number of samples, and the average value of the samples into a formula, and then the first fitting weight is calculated according to the variance, and the second fitting weight and the third fitting weight are calculated in the same way.
S215, obtaining a predicted forest carbon sequestration value according to the first forest carbon sequestration fitted value, the second forest carbon sequestration fitted value, the third forest carbon sequestration fitted value, the first fitting weight, the second fitting weight, and the third fitting weight, specifically:
Figure BDA0003977684930000131
in the formula, FCS t Representing predicted value of carbon sink, xi, of forest LF Representing said first fitting weight, ξ QLF Representing said second fitting weight, ξ LCF Representing the third fitting weight.
S216, displaying the forest carbon sink predicted value in a combined mode of an area graph and a line graph.
In an alternative embodiment, the forest carbon sink fitting values obtained by the different method fitting predictions can be displayed in a combined manner by using an area graph and a line graph.
S22, obtaining ocean carbon sink historical data, performing fitting prediction on the ocean carbon sink historical data to obtain an ocean carbon sink prediction value, and performing fitting prediction on the ocean carbon sink to obtain the same forest carbon sink fitting prediction specifically comprising:
s221, fitting the ocean carbon sequestration historical data by using a linear curve to obtain a first ocean carbon sequestration fitting value, specifically:
Figure BDA0003977684930000132
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000133
representing a first ocean carbon sink fitting value, alpha representing a first coefficient to be fitted, t representing year, and c representing a first intercept term;
s222, fitting the ocean carbon sink historical data by using a quadratic curve to obtain a second ocean carbon sink fitting value, specifically:
Figure BDA0003977684930000134
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000135
representing a second ocean carbon sink fitting value, and beta representing a second coefficient to be fitted;
s223, fitting the ocean carbon sink historical data by using a logarithmic curve to obtain a third ocean carbon sink fitting value, specifically:
Figure BDA0003977684930000136
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000137
representing a third ocean carbon sink fit value;
s224, respectively calculating variances between the first ocean carbon sequestration fitting value, the second ocean carbon sequestration fitting value, and the third ocean carbon sequestration fitting value and corresponding actual values, and determining a first fitting weight corresponding to the first ocean carbon sequestration fitting value, a second fitting weight corresponding to the second ocean carbon sequestration fitting value, and a third fitting weight corresponding to the third ocean carbon sequestration fitting value according to the variances, specifically:
Figure BDA0003977684930000141
Figure BDA0003977684930000142
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000143
represents the variance between the ocean carbon sink fit value under method j and the corresponding actual value, </R>
Figure BDA0003977684930000144
Represents the ocean carbon sink fit value under the j method, n represents the number of samples, and>
Figure BDA0003977684930000145
representing the mean value of the sample, ξ j Representing the fitting weights under the j method, including xi LF 、ξ QLF 、ξ LCF J includes a linear curve, a quadratic curve, or a logarithmic curve.
S225, obtaining an ocean carbon sequestration predicted value according to the first ocean carbon sequestration fitted value, the second ocean carbon sequestration fitted value, the third ocean carbon sequestration fitted value, the first fitted weight, the second fitted weight, and the third fitted weight, specifically:
Figure BDA0003977684930000146
in the formula, OCS t Indicates the predicted value of ocean carbon sink, ξ LF Representing said first fitting weight, ξ QLF Representing said second fitting weight, ξ LCF Representing the third fitting weight.
S226, displaying the ocean carbon sink predicted value in a mode of combining an area graph and a line graph.
S23, obtaining CCUS (carbon capture, utilization and sequestration) historical data, and performing fitting prediction on the CCUS historical data to obtain a CCUS predicted value, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s231, acquiring CCUS historical data and determining the breakthrough years of the preset technology;
in an alternative embodiment, the predetermined technical breakthrough year is 2030;
s232, fitting and predicting the CCUS historical data by adopting a sigmoid curve to obtain a CCUS predicted value, which is specifically as follows:
Figure BDA0003977684930000147
in the formula, CCUS t Denotes the predicted value of CCUS, c 1 Denotes the seventh coefficient to be fitted, c 2 Denotes the eighth coefficient to be fitted, c 3 Denotes the ninth coefficient to be fitted, c 4 Representing a tenth fitting coefficient, and d representing the preset technical breakthrough year;
in an alternative embodiment, the curve is fitted with a least squares fit.
S24, obtaining a carbon sequestration prediction result according to the forest carbon sequestration prediction value, the ocean carbon sequestration prediction value and the CCUS prediction value, specifically:
Figure BDA0003977684930000151
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000152
representing the carbon sink prediction results.
S3, predicting the total carbon emission of the whole society to obtain a total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society, and establishing a proportion relation between the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system and the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society, specifically:
a Kaya identity equation is adopted to build a global society carbon emission prediction model, which is as follows:
Figure BDA0003977684930000153
wherein C represents carbon dioxide emission, P represents population, G represents national production total value, and E represents energy consumption;
according to the global carbon emission prediction model, the carbon dioxide emission depends on four determination factors such as population, per-capita GDP, unit GDP energy consumption and unit energy consumption emission factor, and a multi-factor regression analysis model of the carbon emission is constructed to obtain a global carbon emission total prediction result:
Figure BDA0003977684930000154
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000155
representing the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society, c' represents a second intercept term, alpha 1 Representing the third coefficient of fit, α 2 Denotes the fourth coefficient to be fitted, α 3 Denotes the fifth coefficient of fit, α 4 Denotes the sixth coefficient of fit, P t Representing the number of people in year t, based on the number of people in year t>
Figure BDA0003977684930000156
Means GDP,. Sup.>
Figure BDA0003977684930000157
Represents the strength of energy consumption in the t year>
Figure BDA0003977684930000158
Representing the energy consumption carbon emission intensity of the t year, wherein epsilon represents a random disturbance term;
in the formula, after obtaining the historical data, the c' and alpha can be obtained by multiple regression fitting 1 、α 2 、α 3 、α 4 The estimation value and the situation of the long-term change of the four variables are analyzed, and the total social carbon emission meeting the future economic and social development is obtained.
Wherein, the proportion relation gamma between the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system and the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society t Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003977684930000161
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003977684930000162
and representing the power system carbon emission measurement result.
During the simulation, gamma is predicted during the prediction period t+1 And rolling and extrapolating the proportion of the next year according to the average value of the annual variation of nearly five years, and keeping the proportion relationship to tend to be stable:
γ t+1 ＝γ t +Δ t+1 ；
Figure BDA0003977684930000163
in the formula, gamma t+1 Represents the said proportion, Δ, for t +1 years t+1 Represents the percentage change of t +1 year to t year, delta i Indicating the change in the proportion of i years over the last year.
S4, simulating a carbon neutralization route based on the proportion relation, the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society and the carbon sink prediction result to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result, which specifically comprises the following steps:
s41, determining the net carbon emission according to the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society and the carbon sink prediction result, specifically:
Figure BDA0003977684930000164
in the formula, NC t Representing the net carbon emission.
S42, if the carbon emission net amount is smaller than or equal to a first preset value, a carbon neutralization state is achieved;
in an alternative embodiment, the first preset value is 0;
s43, if the net carbon emission amount is larger than a first preset value, determining a key index influencing carbon emission, and reducing the carbon emission amount according to the key index until the net carbon emission amount tends to the first preset value under the condition that the proportion relation tends to a steady state to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result, wherein the simulation result specifically comprises the following steps:
s431, if the net carbon emission amount is larger than a first preset value, determining a main carbon source and key indexes corresponding to the main carbon source;
specifically, on the basis of S1, structural analysis is performed on different carbon sources such as different loaders in a region, inter-region exchange, electric power transportation, and the like, and a primary carbon source and a secondary carbon source are distinguished according to conditions such as a large proportion, a high speed increase, and the like, and when the carbon sources satisfy any of the following conditions, the carbon sources can be determined as the primary carbon source: (1) the specific gravity of carbon emission of a certain carbon source in the total carbon emission of the power system is more than or equal to 10%, and the annual growth rate is more than 5%; (2) the proportion of the carbon emission in the total carbon emission of the power system is more than or equal to 30 percent;
and analyzing and determining key indexes corresponding to the main carbon source, including installed capacity, average utilization hours of equipment, unit electricity consumption, inter-area electricity exchange amount and structure, line loss electricity and other indexes.
S432, determining the adjustable range of the key indexes according to the structure and the upper limit of the main carbon source, and determining the unit adjustment cost corresponding to each key index to obtain the total adjustment cost;
and S433, under the condition that the proportion relation tends to be stable, adjusting the key index according to the principle of minimum adjustment total cost until the net carbon emission amount tends to the first preset value, and obtaining a carbon neutralization route simulation result.
Example two
Referring to fig. 2, a newly added investment demand forecasting terminal of the embodiment includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and capable of running on the processor, where the processor executes the computer program to implement each step of the carbon neutralization simulation method in the first embodiment.
In summary, the carbon neutralization simulation method and the terminal provided by the invention measure and calculate the carbon emission of the power system to obtain the measurement and calculation result of the carbon emission of the power system; fitting and predicting the carbon collection amount to obtain a carbon collection prediction result; predicting the total carbon emission of the whole society to obtain a total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society, and establishing a proportion relation between the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system and the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society; and simulating a carbon neutralization route based on the proportion relation, the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society and the carbon sink prediction result to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result, and performing simulation analysis on the carbon neutralization route by combining carbon source and carbon sink analysis so as to more comprehensively and effectively determine the carbon neutralization route and realize the balanced development of economic society development and power supply safety, thereby realizing an effective and reliable carbon neutralization route, further providing a power system construction development strategy under the constraint of double carbon targets and supporting a novel power system construction decision.
The above description is only an embodiment of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and all equivalent modifications made by the present invention and the contents of the accompanying drawings, which are directly or indirectly applied to the related technical fields, are included in the scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. A carbon neutralization simulation method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
measuring and calculating the carbon emission of the power system to obtain a carbon emission measuring and calculating result of the power system;
fitting and predicting the carbon sequestration amount to obtain a carbon sequestration prediction result;
predicting the total carbon emission of the whole society to obtain a total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society, and establishing a proportion relation between the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system and the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society;
and simulating a carbon neutralization route based on the proportion relation, the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society and the carbon sink prediction result to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result.
2. The carbon neutralization simulation method according to claim 1, wherein the calculating carbon emission of the power system to obtain a calculation result of carbon emission of the power system comprises:
measuring and calculating carbon emission of the generator sets in the region to obtain a measuring and calculating result of the carbon emission of the generator sets in the region;
measuring and calculating the carbon emission of the inter-regional exchange electric quantity to obtain a measurement and calculation result of the carbon emission of the inter-regional exchange electric quantity;
measuring and calculating the carbon emission in power transportation to obtain a measuring and calculating result of the carbon emission in power transportation;
and obtaining a carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system according to the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the generator sets in the areas, the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the inter-area exchange electric quantity and the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power transportation.
3. The carbon neutralization simulation method according to claim 2, wherein the step of measuring and calculating the regional generator set carbon emission comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003977684920000011
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003977684920000012
shows the carbon emission measurement and calculation results of the generator set in the region, X 1 Represents a first row vector of 1 x 3 dimensions, Y represents a second row vector of 1 x 3 dimensions, and/or a combination thereof>
Figure FDA0003977684920000013
Represents the standard coal consumption quantity of the coal-fired unit in the power generation process of the t year, and is used for judging whether the standard coal consumption quantity is greater than or equal to the standard coal consumption quantity>
Figure FDA0003977684920000014
Represents the fuel consumption standard amount of the fuel unit in the generating process of the t year, and is subjected to judgment and judgment>
Figure FDA0003977684920000015
Indicating the standard gas consumption of the gas turbine set in the process of generating power in the t year C Carbon rejection factor, eta, representing coal consumption O Carbon emission factor, η, representing fuel consumption G Carbon rejection factor representing gas consumption, t represents year;
the method for measuring and calculating the carbon emission of the inter-regional exchange electric quantity comprises the following steps of:
Figure FDA0003977684920000016
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003977684920000017
the measurement and calculation results of carbon emission of the electric quantity exchanged between the areas are shown, X 2 A third row vector representing 1 x 3 dimensions,
Figure FDA0003977684920000018
represents the standard amount of coal consumption of the coal-fired unit in the area exchange electricity of the t year, and is/are>
Figure FDA0003977684920000019
Represents the used oil consumption standard quantity of the fuel oil unit in the area exchange electric quantity of the t year, and is used for judging whether the oil consumption standard quantity is greater than or equal to the preset value>
Figure FDA00039776849200000110
The used gas consumption standard quantity of the gas turbine set in the area exchange electricity in the t year is represented;
the method for measuring and calculating the carbon emission in electric power transportation comprises the following steps of:
Figure FDA0003977684920000021
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003977684920000022
representing the results of the carbon emission measurements in electric power transportation, X 3 Represents the fourth row vector of 1 x 3 dimensions, and>
Figure FDA0003977684920000023
represents a standard quantity of coal consumed in the power transportation, based on the measured value>
Figure FDA0003977684920000024
Represents a standard quantity of oil consumption in the transport of electric power, based on the measured quantity>
Figure FDA0003977684920000025
Representing a standard amount of gas consumption used in electric transportation;
the step of obtaining the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system according to the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the generator set in the region, the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the inter-region exchange electric quantity and the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power transportation comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003977684920000026
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003977684920000027
and (4) representing the carbon emission measurement result of the power system.
4. The carbon neutralization simulation method according to claim 1, wherein the fitting prediction of the total carbon amount to obtain a predicted carbon sequestration result comprises:
acquiring historical forest carbon sink data, and performing fitting prediction on the historical forest carbon sink data to obtain a predicted forest carbon sink value;
obtaining ocean carbon sequestration historical data, and performing fitting prediction on the ocean carbon sequestration historical data to obtain an ocean carbon sequestration predicted value;
acquiring CCUS historical data, and performing fitting prediction on the CCUS historical data to obtain a CCUS predicted value;
and obtaining a carbon sink prediction result according to the forest carbon sink prediction value, the ocean carbon sink prediction value and the CCUS prediction value.
5. The carbon neutralization simulation method according to claim 4, wherein the fitting prediction of the forest carbon sink historical data to obtain a forest carbon sink predicted value comprises:
fitting the forest carbon sink historical data by using a linear curve to obtain a first forest carbon sink fitting value;
fitting the forest carbon sink historical data by using a secondary curve to obtain a second forest carbon sink fitting value;
fitting the forest carbon sink historical data by using a logarithmic curve to obtain a third forest carbon sink fitting value;
respectively calculating variances between the first forest carbon sink fitting value, the second forest carbon sink fitting value and the third forest carbon sink fitting value and corresponding actual values, and determining a first fitting weight corresponding to the first forest carbon sink fitting value, a second fitting weight corresponding to the second forest carbon sink fitting value and a third fitting weight corresponding to the third forest carbon sink fitting value according to the variances;
obtaining a predicted forest carbon sink value according to the first forest carbon sink fitting value, the second forest carbon sink fitting value, the third forest carbon sink fitting value, the first fitting weight, the second fitting weight and the third fitting weight;
and displaying the forest carbon sink predicted value in a mode of combining an area graph and a line graph.
6. The carbon neutralization simulation method according to claim 5, wherein the fitting the forest carbon sink historical data with a linear curve to obtain a first forest carbon sink fitting value comprises:
Figure FDA0003977684920000031
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003977684920000032
representing a first forest carbon sink fitting value, alpha representing a first coefficient to be fitted, t representing year, and c representing a first intercept term;
the secondary curve is used for fitting the forest carbon sink historical data, and the second forest carbon sink fitting value is obtained by:
Figure FDA0003977684920000033
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003977684920000034
representing a second forest carbon sink fitting value, and beta represents a second coefficient to be fitted;
the step of fitting the forest carbon sink historical data by using the logarithmic curve to obtain a third forest carbon sink fitting value comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003977684920000035
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003977684920000036
representing a third forest carbon sink fit value; />
The obtaining of the predicted forest carbon sink value according to the first forest carbon sink fitting value, the second forest carbon sink fitting value, the third forest carbon sink fitting value, the first fitting weight, the second fitting weight and the third fitting weight comprises:
Figure FDA0003977684920000037
in the formula, FCS t Indicates predicted value of forest carbon sink, xi LF Representing said first fitting weight, ξ QLF Representing said second fitting weight, ξ LCF Representing the third fitting weight.
7. The carbon neutralization simulation method according to claim 1, wherein the predicting the total carbon emission of the whole society to obtain a total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society comprises:
Figure FDA0003977684920000041
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003977684920000042
representing the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society, c' represents a second intercept term, alpha 1 Representing the third coefficient of fit, α 2 Denotes the fourth coefficient to be fitted, α 3 Denotes the fifth coefficient of fit, α 4 Denotes the sixth coefficient to be fitted, P t Representing the number of people in year t, based on the number of people in year t>
Figure FDA0003977684920000043
Means GDP,. Sup.>
Figure FDA0003977684920000044
Represents the strength of energy consumption in the t year>
Figure FDA0003977684920000045
Representing the energy consumption carbon emission intensity of the t year, wherein epsilon represents a random disturbance term;
the proportion relation gamma between the carbon emission measurement and calculation result of the power system and the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society t Comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003977684920000046
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003977684920000047
and representing the power system carbon emission measurement result.
8. The carbon neutralization simulation method according to claim 1, wherein the simulating the carbon neutralization route based on the proportion relation, the total carbon emission prediction result of the whole society and the carbon sink prediction result to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result comprises:
determining the net carbon emission according to the total carbon emission prediction result and the carbon sink prediction result of the whole society;
if the carbon emission net amount is less than or equal to a first preset value, a carbon neutralization state is achieved;
and if the net carbon emission amount is larger than a first preset value, determining a key index influencing carbon emission, and reducing the carbon emission amount according to the key index until the net carbon emission amount tends to the first preset value under the condition that the proportion relation tends to be stable, so as to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result.
9. The carbon neutralization simulation method according to claim 8, wherein the determining a key index affecting carbon emission and reducing carbon emission according to the key index until the carbon emission net amount tends to the first preset value when the proportion relationship tends to a steady state, and obtaining the carbon neutralization route simulation result comprises:
determining a main carbon source and key indexes corresponding to the main carbon source;
determining the adjustable range of the key indexes according to the structure and the upper limit of the main carbon source, and determining the unit adjustment cost corresponding to each key index to obtain the total adjustment cost;
and under the condition that the proportion relation tends to be stable, adjusting the key index according to the principle of adjusting the minimum total cost until the net carbon emission amount tends to the first preset value to obtain a carbon neutralization route simulation result.
10. A carbon neutralization simulation terminal comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps of a carbon neutralization simulation method according to any one of claims 1 to 9 when executing the computer program.
CN202211541109.7A 2022-12-02 2022-12-02 Carbon neutralization simulation method and terminal Pending CN115879976A (en)

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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN117788218A (en) * 2024-02-23 2024-03-29 浙电(宁波北仑)智慧能源有限公司 Carbon emission evaluation method and system

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN117788218A (en) * 2024-02-23 2024-03-29 浙电(宁波北仑)智慧能源有限公司 Carbon emission evaluation method and system

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