CN115879655A - Method and system for optimizing emission reduction scheme of power grid enterprise - Google Patents
Method and system for optimizing emission reduction scheme of power grid enterprise Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to an optimization method of an emission reduction scheme of a power grid enterprise, which comprises the following steps: determining estimated values of carbon emission of various power stations; establishing a power station carbon emission model of a target area; determining a difference between annual carbon emission and annual carbon emission quota within the target area; obtaining the future weather condition of the target area, and analyzing whether the future weather condition accords with the first emission reduction path; analyzing whether a second emission reduction path is met or not according to the installation conditions of the carbon emission gas and the waste raw material recovery device of the thermal power station; analyzing whether a third emission reduction path is met or not according to whether a raw material purchasing point of the thermal power station is changeable or not; and analyzing whether the raw material purchasing point of the fire power station is changeable or not to accord with a fourth emission reduction path. Compared with the prior art, different carbon emission models are established according to the energy structure characteristics of the existing power stations in China and respective unique carbon emission links, the difference of the carbon emission links between the traditional power station and the new energy power station is fully considered, the calculation mode of the difference of the carbon emission of the traditional power station and the new energy power station under the same electric power is established, on the basis, a proper emission reduction path is selected, the carbon emission of a target area is reduced through the output coordination between the power stations is preferentially considered, and therefore the extra emission reduction cost of a power grid enterprise is reduced.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to an energy-saving emission-reducing optimization method for the power industry, in particular to an emission-reducing scheme optimization method and system for a power grid enterprise.
Background
With the development of national economic technology and the improvement of living standard of people, sustainable development is a common concern of countries all over the world. It is recognized globally that the major economies have great urgency and importance to target specific goals and plans for net zero emission based on the Paris Agreement. As PRI "inevitable policy response" project analysis shows, in the face of climate change risks, lagging, chaotic and chaotic policy actions can destroy financial asset value and make emission reduction at a desired rate more difficult. On the other hand, timely and powerful actions can ensure that the market catches the opportunity of development and employment creation brought by the future sustainable and low-carbon industry. For the reasons set forth above, investors are increasingly willing to invest capital in addition to supporting net zero policy actions, and to cooperate with policy makers to design and implement policies that promote large-scale low-carbon capital movement.
In the process of carbon emission and carbon management, how to determine an energy-saving and emission-reducing path is one of the current problems, and how to select a reasonable emission-reducing path according to different enterprise development conditions so as to quickly realize a double-carbon target, which is a link lacking in the prior art.
For the power industry, although the industry of controlling and discharging is not brought into the industry for a while, due to the mineral resources and the traditional energy structures in China, although the pace of developing new energy is quickened, the power generation proportion of the domestic thermal power station is still large at present, how to realize the optimization of an emission reduction path under the existing energy structure system and meet the requirement of domestic economic development and simultaneously realize a double-carbon target as soon as possible is a problem which needs to be researched and solved for the power industry, particularly for power enterprises, in the process of realizing the double-carbon target, not only the economic cost needs to be considered, but also the stability of a power system needs to be considered at the same time, because the power is the national economic basic industry, the double-carbon target needs to be realized and a reasonable energy-saving and emission reduction path needs to be selected under the condition that the characteristics of the power industry and the economic development need to be fully considered, and the technical problem which needs to be solved in the prior art is also provided.
Disclosure of Invention
The optimization method and the optimization system for the emission reduction scheme of the power grid enterprise can solve the dilemma that the economic cost, the power grid output and the double-carbon target are difficult to reasonably balance in the prior art, so that the power enterprise can reasonably select the energy-saving and emission-reduction path, optimize the industrial structure and accelerate the realization of the double-carbon target.
An emission reduction scheme optimization method for a power grid enterprise comprises the following steps:
step 1: determining estimated carbon emission values of various power stations;
step 2: establishing a power station carbon emission model of a target area;
and 3, step 3: determining a difference between annual carbon emission and annual carbon emission quota within the target area;
and 4, step 4: obtaining the future weather condition of the target area, and analyzing whether the future weather condition accords with a first emission reduction path;
and 5: analyzing whether a second emission reduction path is met or not according to the installation conditions of the carbon emission gas and the waste raw material recovery device of the thermal power station;
and 6: analyzing whether a third emission reduction path is met or not according to whether a raw material purchasing point of the thermal power station is changeable or not;
and 7: recording all current data and path selection modes, outputting emission reduction path selection logs and providing carbon emission early warning.
Preferably, the first emission reduction path is used for improving the power generation capacity of the new energy power station, including but not limited to starting a standby unit, improving the power generation efficiency, or improving the grid-connected power; the second emission reduction path is formed by additionally installing a carbon emission gas recovery device and a waste raw material recovery device, and the third emission reduction path is formed by re-planning the distance of a raw material purchasing point of the thermal power station; and the fourth emission reduction path is low-carbon treatment of building and operation and maintenance materials.
Preferably, the process of determining the estimated carbon emission of each type of power station in step 1 is as follows: the target area is set as a D area, N power stations are shared in the area, wherein a plurality of traditional energy stations including M fire power stations and a plurality of hydropower stations are arranged in the area, K new energy power stations including but not limited to wind power stations, photovoltaic power stations and geothermal power stations,
setting a total of M thermal power stations, wherein one thermal power station is M i Wherein i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to M, and the current loading capacity is G i Theoretical loading of G max I, the average price of raw material purchasing cost of unit loading amount of the power station is V i Average transport distance of D i U of carbon emission per unit distance of transport vehicle i The average expansion period of unit loading is T M,i The actual energy conversion efficiency of the raw material of the power station is rho i The theoretical carbon emission factor of the raw material adopted by the power station is E i The recovery efficiency of the carbon emission recovery apparatus installed in the power plant is α i If the plant has no carbon emission recovery means, then α i =0, and the recovery efficiency of carbon from waste raw materials in the power station is θ i And carbon emissions during normal construction, operation and maintenance J i Said J is i Can be comprehensively calculated by the types and the usage of the building materials and the operation and maintenance materials in the target area and the corresponding measured values of the carbon emission,
the actual loading capacity of the kth new energy power station is S in K new energy power stations k Theoretical loading of S max K, the function of the power generation of the new energy power station and weather factors (such as illumination intensity, wind intensity and the like) is F k (w, sk, t), function F k The current unit power generation power can be obtained according to the statistics of the data of the past year, and can also be drawn by measuring the current unit power generation power through the current illumination intensity and wind power intensity, wherein S t For the unit which is actually put into use, w is the current weather factor, including wind power, illumination, rainfall and other factors, and is uniformly replaced by w, and the grid-connected efficiency is beta k Recovery of the plant-mounted carbon emission recovery plantEfficiency of alpha k If the plant has no carbon emission recovery means, then α k =0, and the recovery efficiency of carbon from waste raw materials by the power station is θ k . Meanwhile, the carbon emission J of the new energy power station and the normal construction, operation and maintenance process k ；
The total carbon emission of the ith thermal power station is as follows:
Z i ＝V i ×D i ×U i +(P i ÷ρ i )×E i ×(1-α i )+F i ×(1-θ i )+J i ；
p in the above formula i F is the actual power generation amount in the current statistical period of the ith thermal power station i The current amount of waste materials of the ith thermal power station is cut off in the current statistical period,
the carbon emission of the kth new energy power station is as follows:
Y k ＝F k (w，S k，t )×(1-α k )+F k ×(1-θ k )+J k
wherein, F k The amount of waste materials of the current k-th new energy power station in the current statistical period.
Meanwhile, the carbon emissions of the hydropower stations in the target area are:
X＝W*W E 。
preferably, the establishing of the power station carbon emission model of the target area comprises:
C s ＝∑Z i +∑Y k +X。
preferably, in the step 4, the future weather condition of the target area needs to be obtained, and the weather factor of the future time period T is set as W f Said W f Including but not limited to illumination intensity, wind, rain, fog which can affect new energy power station output, and the weather factors are listed as an array and input into the function F k And determining the output power delta P to be increased of all the new energy power stations within the future time period T.
Preferably, the discharge reduction amount Δ Z of the thermal power station in the target area is determined according to the output power Δ P to be increased of all the new energy power stations, and the calculation process is as follows:
ΔZ＝∑((ΔP)÷ρ i )×E i ×(1-α i )+ΔF i ×(1-θ i )
in the above formula,. DELTA.F i According to the reduced waste material amount of the kth new energy power station after the output delta P is reduced along with the planning of the thermal power station,
ΔZ＝∑((ΔP)÷ρ i )×E i ×(1-α i )+ΔF i ×(1-θ i )
in the above formula,. DELTA.F i According to the method, after the output delta P is planned to be reduced along with the thermal power station, the amount of the waste materials of the kth new energy power station is reduced, and the increased carbon emission of the new energy power station is calculated:
ΔY＝∑(F k (W f ，S k )×(1-α k )+ΔF k ×(1-θ k ))
in the above formula,. DELTA.F k According to the increased waste material amount of the kth new energy power station along with the increased output delta P of the new energy power station, whether the emission reduction plan can control the carbon emission amount of the target area within the carbon emission quota is determined through calculation:
preferably, the step 5 is to monitor whether the current thermal power station is provided with a carbon emission gas recovery device and a waste raw material recovery device, and if yes, the step 6 is executed; if not, selecting the second path, analyzing whether the reduction amount is enough to fill the carbon emission gap value, if so, returning to the step 1 to continue monitoring, and if not, entering the step 6.
Preferably, in the step 7, all current data and path selection modes are recorded, and meanwhile, a target regional energy system manager is warned that annual carbon emission of the target region may be quota, a market trading plan for carbon emission is planned, after warning, whether the period is finished is judged, if not, the step 1 is returned to continue monitoring, and if the period is finished, the step is finished, and a carbon emission path selection log is generated.
A system applying the method of claim 1 for optimizing emission reduction schemes of a power grid enterprise.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages that: aiming at the energy structure characteristics of the existing power stations in China and the respective unique carbon emission links, different carbon emission models are established, the difference of the carbon emission links between the traditional power station and the new energy power station is fully considered, a calculation mode of the carbon emission difference between the traditional power station and the new energy power station under the same power is established, a proper emission reduction path is selected on the basis, the carbon emission of a target area is reduced through the output coordination between the power stations is preferably considered, so that the extra emission reduction cost of a power grid enterprise is reduced, after the emission reduction path still cannot achieve the purpose of emission reduction, a suboptimal path is selected, such as the installation condition of a carbon emission gas and waste raw material recovery device of a thermal power station, or the raw material purchasing point distance of the thermal power station is judged, if the carbon emission purchasing requirement cannot be met, low carbonization treatment is considered to be carried out on the buildings, the operation and maintenance and the like of the traditional power station and the new energy power station, so that the carbon emission of the target area is reduced as much as possible, the power supply requirement of the target area is met, and the sustainable and the economic development is realized.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart illustrating steps of an optimization method of an emission reduction scheme of a power grid enterprise according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings, the steps of which are shown in fig. 1.
The method comprises the steps of setting a region boundary for energy conservation and emission reduction, setting a target region as a D region, wherein N power stations are shared in the region, wherein a plurality of traditional energy source stations of families comprise M fire power stations and a plurality of hydropower stations, K new energy power stations comprise wind power stations, photovoltaic power stations and geothermal power stations, and other power stations of novel energy types (such as nuclear energy and hydrogen energy).
For hydropower station, the unit transformation technology is considered once the hydropower station is builtThe operation difficulty and the economic cost are relatively high, and the carbon emission by utilizing the hydroelectric power generation is relatively low, generally, the water power is between 0.81 and 12.8g _CO 2 between/kWh, so that in the carbon emission optimization path, only the fixed carbon emission of the hydroelectric power plant is calculated, i.e. W E Wherein W is the total hydropower station power generation capacity of the region D, W E The average carbon emission (including that generated by building and operation and maintenance) corresponding to the unit power generation of the hydropower stations in the region D can be obtained by integrating the power generation of each hydropower station in the previous year of the region D and counting the corresponding carbon emission.
In M thermal power stations, a certain traditional energy power station is M i Wherein i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to M, and the current loading capacity is G i Theoretical loading of G max,i The average price of the raw material purchasing cost of the unit loading amount of the power station is V i Average transport distance of D i U of carbon emissions per unit distance of transport vehicle i The average expansion period of unit loading is T M,i The actual energy conversion efficiency of the raw material of the power station is rho i The theoretical carbon emission factor of the raw material adopted by the power station is E i The recovery efficiency of the carbon emission recovery apparatus installed in the power plant is α i If the plant has no carbon emission recovery unit, then α i =0, and the recovery efficiency of carbon from waste raw materials by the power station is θ i And carbon emissions during normal construction, operation and maintenance J i Said J is i The comprehensive calculation can be performed by the types and the usage of the building materials and the operation and maintenance materials in the target area and the corresponding measured values of carbon emission (or historical averages), which is not the focus of the present invention, and thus will not be described herein again.
For a new energy power station, compared with a traditional thermal power station, raw material combustion is not needed, so that the consideration factors such as raw material purchasing cost and transportation distance do not exist, but the electric power grid-connection efficiency of the new energy power station is lower than that of the thermal power station, and the influence factor of weather conditions is large, so that the actual loading quantity of a kth new energy power station is S in K new energy power stations k Theoretical loading of S max,k The generated energy and weather factors of the new energy power station(e.g., light intensity, wind intensity, etc.) as a function of F k (w, sk, t), function F k The energy-saving system can be obtained according to data statistics of weather factors, actual loading capacity and generated energy in the past year, and can also be drawn by measuring the current generating power of a unit through the current illumination intensity and wind power intensity, wherein S t For the unit which is actually put into use, w is the current weather factors including wind power, illumination, rainfall and the like, and is uniformly replaced by w, and the grid-connected efficiency is beta k The recovery efficiency of the carbon emission recovery apparatus installed in the power plant is alpha k If the plant has no carbon emission recovery means, then α k =0, and the recovery efficiency of carbon from waste raw materials in the power station is θ k . Meanwhile, the carbon emission of the new energy power station and the normal construction, operation and maintenance process J k Wherein K is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to K.
After the parameters are determined, the carbon emission of the target area is collected, for example, a carbon emission monitoring device is built in each power station (including a traditional power station and a new energy power station), a combustion emission outlet can be built in a thermal power station, a hydropower station can be built at a position where the hydropower station is communicated with the outside, and the new energy power station generally generates transportation, hoisting and operation and maintenance, so that the carbon emission monitoring device is installed in the links for further counting the carbon emission of the new energy power station.
After determining the above considerations, designing the energy saving and emission reduction path:
route 1: the method comprises the steps of improving the generated energy of a new energy power station, including but not limited to starting a standby unit, improving the generating efficiency or improving the grid-connected power;
route 2: additionally installing a carbon emission gas recovery device and a waste raw material recovery device;
route 3: re-planning the distance of the raw material purchasing point of the thermal power station;
path 4: low-carbon treatment of building and operation and maintenance materials.
Compared with the prior art that the generated energy of a thermal power plant is restricted, the method provided by the invention realizes reasonable selection of an energy-saving emission-reducing path through the characteristic of carbon emission in a multidimensional analysis area, and the specific analysis steps are as follows:
step 1: determining estimated values of carbon emission of various power stations;
total carbon emission Z of ith thermal power plant i Comprises the following steps:
Z i ＝V i ×D i ×U i +(P i ÷ρ i )×E i ×(1-α i )+F i ×(1-θ i )+J i ；
p in the above formula i F is the actual generated energy at present within the current statistical period of the ith thermal power station i And stopping the amount of the waste material of the current ith thermal power station in the current statistical period.
Carbon emission Y of kth new energy power station k Comprises the following steps:
Y k ＝F k (w，S k，t )×(1-α k )+F k ×(1-θ k )+J k
wherein, F k The amount of waste materials of the current k-th new energy power station in the current statistical period.
Meanwhile, the carbon emissions of the hydropower stations in the target area are:
X＝W*W E ；
step 2: the power station carbon emission model of the target area is established as follows:
Cs＝∑Z i +∑Y k +X
and step 3: determining a difference between annual carbon emission and annual carbon emission quota within the target area;
in the formula, CE is annual carbon emission quota in a target area, d is days elapsed since the current period, and Δ C is the difference, if Δ C is less than 0, it is indicated that the carbon emission of the power station in the target area is in a planning range, the output mode of each power station does not need to be adjusted, and the monitoring is continued after the step 1; if the delta C is larger than 0, the carbon emission of the power station in the target area is over large, the regional power station power supply mode of each power station in the area needs to be adjusted, and the step 4 is executed.
And 4, step 4: obtaining the future weather condition of the target area, and setting the weather factor of the future time period T as W f Said W f Including but not limited to the intensity of illumination, wind, rain, fog, etc. that can affect the output of the new energy power station, these weather factors can be listed as an array and input to the function F k In the method, the output power delta P to be increased of all new energy power stations in the future time period T is determined,
ΔP＝∑F k (W f ，S k，T )-F k (w，S k，t )
and the output delta Y of all new energy power stations is increased, and the carbon emission to be increased is as follows:
ΔY＝∑(F k (W f ，S k，T )×(1-α k )+ΔF k ×(1-θ k ))
in the above formula,. DELTA.F k The amount of waste material of the kth new energy power station is increased according to the increasing output delta P of the new energy power station.
According to the output power delta P to be increased of all new energy power stations, the carbon emission to be reduced of the fire power station in the target area is calculated:
ΔZ＝∑((ΔP)÷ρ i )×E i ×(1-α i )+ΔF i ×(1-θ i )
in the above formula,. DELTA.F i According to the amount of the waste materials of the kth new energy power station reduced after the output delta P is planned to be reduced along with the thermal power station.
Determining whether the emission reduction plan enables control of carbon emission of the target zone within the carbon emission quota:
if it is
If the output power is larger than 0 or the output power level of the current new energy power station is difficult to increase, the output power delta P of the new energy power station is increased, and then the step 5 is carried out.
Step 5, monitoring whether the current thermal power station is provided with a carbon emission gas recovery device and a waste raw material recovery device, and if yes, entering step 6; if not, adding a carbon emission gas recovery device and a waste raw material recovery device for a thermal power station which is not provided with the carbon emission gas recovery device and the waste raw material recovery device, namely selecting an energy-saving emission-reducing path 2, calculating the carbon emission reduction amount after adding the carbon emission gas recovery device and the waste raw material recovery device, and judging whether the carbon emission reduction amount is enough to fill the carbon emission gap value or not, if the carbon emission gap can be filled, if the period is not finished, returning to the step 1, continuously performing analysis and monitoring, and if the period is finished, skipping to the step 7; if the carbon emission gap still cannot be filled, step 6 is entered.
Step 6, investigating whether a short-distance raw material purchasing point exists around the thermal power station, if so, changing the original raw material purchasing point into a closer raw material purchasing point, namely an energy-saving emission-reducing path 3, so as to shorten the carbon emission in the raw material transportation process; if the raw material purchasing point of the thermal power station cannot be changed, selecting an energy-saving and emission-reducing path 4, for example, in the process of construction, operation and maintenance, adopting a material with lower carbon content to reduce the carbon emission; at this time, if the period is not finished yet, returning to the step 1, continuing to execute the analysis monitoring, and if the period is finished, skipping to the step 7;
and (7) if the thermal power station in the target area cannot change the raw material purchasing point or adopt a low-carbon material in the construction and operation and maintenance processes, entering step 7.
And 7, recording all current data and path selection modes, simultaneously early warning annual carbon emission quota possibly given out in the target area to energy system management personnel in the target area, planning a carbon emission market trading plan, judging whether the period is ended after early warning, returning to the step 1 to continue monitoring if the period is not ended, ending the steps if the period is ended, and generating a carbon emission path selection log.
The present invention and its embodiments have been described above, and the description is not intended to be limiting, and the drawings show only one embodiment of the present invention, and the actual structure is not limited thereto. In summary, those skilled in the art should be able to conceive of the present invention without creative design of the similar structural modes and embodiments without departing from the spirit of the present invention, and all such modifications should fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. An emission reduction scheme optimization method for a power grid enterprise is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: determining estimated carbon emission values of various power stations;
and 2, step: establishing a power station carbon emission model of a target area;
and 3, step 3: determining a difference between annual carbon emission and annual carbon emission quota within the target area;
and 4, step 4: obtaining the future weather condition of the target area, and analyzing whether the future weather condition accords with a first emission reduction path;
and 5: analyzing whether a second emission reduction path is met or not according to the installation conditions of the carbon emission gas and the waste raw material recovery device of the thermal power station;
and 6: analyzing whether a third or fourth emission reduction path is met or not according to whether a raw material purchasing point of the thermal power station is changeable or not;
and 7: recording all current data and path selection modes, outputting emission reduction path selection logs and providing carbon emission early warning.
2. The method of claim 1, further characterized in that the first emission reduction path is to boost the power generation of a new energy power station, including but not limited to starting a backup unit, boosting power generation efficiency, or boosting grid-connected power; the second emission reduction path is formed by additionally installing a carbon emission gas recovery device and a waste raw material recovery device, and the third emission reduction path is formed by re-planning the distance of a raw material purchasing point of the thermal power station; and the fourth emission reduction path is low-carbon treatment of building and operation and maintenance materials.
3. The method of claim 2, further characterized in that the determination of the estimated carbon emissions of the various types of power stations in step 1 is performed by: the target area is set as a D area, N power stations are shared in the area, wherein a plurality of traditional energy stations including M fire power stations and a plurality of hydropower stations are arranged in the area, K new energy power stations including but not limited to wind power stations, photovoltaic power stations and geothermal power stations,
setting a total of M thermal power stations, wherein one thermal power station is M i Wherein i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to M, and the current loading capacity is G i Theoretical loading of G max，i The average price of the raw material purchasing cost of the unit loading amount of the power station is V i Average transport distance of D i U of carbon emission per unit distance of transport vehicle i The average expansion period of unit loading is T M，i The actual energy conversion efficiency of the raw material of the power station is rho i The theoretical carbon emission factor of the raw material adopted by the power station is E i The recovery efficiency of the carbon emission recovery apparatus installed in the power plant is α i If the plant has no carbon emission recovery means, then α i =0, and the recovery efficiency of carbon from waste raw materials by the power station is θ i And carbon emissions during normal construction, operation and maintenance J i Said J is i Can be comprehensively calculated by the types and the usage of the building materials and the operation and maintenance materials in the target area and the corresponding measured values of the carbon emission,
the actual loading capacity of the kth new energy power station is S in K new energy power stations k Theoretical loading of S max，k The function of the power generation amount of the new energy power station and weather factors (such as illumination intensity, wind intensity and the like) is F k (w，S k，t ) The function Fk can be obtained according to data statistics of the past year or drawn by measuring the current generating power of the unit through the current illumination intensity and wind power intensity, wherein S t For the unit which is actually put into use, w is the current weather factor, including wind power, illumination, rainfall and other factors, and is uniformly replaced by w, and the grid-connected efficiency is beta k The recovery efficiency of the carbon emission recovery apparatus installed in the power plant is α k If the plant has no carbon emission recovery unit, then α k =0, and the recovery efficiency of carbon from waste raw materials in the power station is θ k Meanwhile, new energy power station and carbon emission in normal construction, operation and maintenance process J k Wherein K is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to K;
total carbon emission Z of ith thermal power plant i Comprises the following steps:
Z i ＝V i ×D i ×U i +(P i ÷ρ i )×E i ×(1-α i )+F i ×(1-θ i )+J i ；
p in the above formula i F is the actual power generation amount in the current statistical period of the ith thermal power station i The current waste material amount of the ith thermal power station is cut off in the current statistical period,
carbon emission Y of kth new energy power station k Comprises the following steps:
Y k ＝F k (w，S k，t )×(1-α k )+F k ×(1-θ k )+J k
wherein, F k The amount of waste material of the current k-th new energy power station in the current statistical period，
Meanwhile, the carbon emissions of the hydropower stations in the target area are:
X＝W*W E 。
4. the method of claim 3, further characterized in that the establishing the plant carbon emission model for the target area is:
C s ＝∑Z i +∑Y k +X。
5. the method as claimed in claim 2, wherein the step 4 is further characterized in that the future weather condition of the target area is acquired, and the weather factor of the future time period T is set as W f Said W f Including but not limited to the intensity of illumination, wind, rain, fog that can affect the output of the new energy power station, these weather factors are listed as an array and input to the function F k And determining the output power delta P to be increased of all the new energy power stations within the future time period T.
6. The method according to claim 5, further characterized in that the reduction amount Δ Z of the fired power station in the target area is determined from the output power Δ P to be added by all the new energy power stations by the following calculation:
the weather factor of the future time period T is W f Said W f Including but not limited to the intensity of illumination, wind, rain, fog, etc. that can affect the output of the new energy power station, these weather factors are listed as an array and input to the function F k In the method, the output power delta P to be increased of all new energy power stations in the future time period T is determined,
ΔP＝∑F k (W f ，S k，T )-F k (w，S k，t )
and the output delta Y of all new energy power stations is increased, and the carbon emission to be increased is as follows:
ΔY＝∑(F k (W f ，S k，T )×(1-α k )+ΔF k ×(1-θ k ))
wherein, Δ F k According to the new energy power stationIncreasing the output delta P and the waste material quantity of the kth new energy power station; according to the output power delta P to be increased of all new energy power stations, the carbon emission to be reduced of the fire power station in the target area is calculated:
ΔZ＝∑((ΔP)÷ρ i )×E i ×(1-α i )+ΔF i ×(1-θ i )
in the above formula,. DELTA.F i The method is based on the amount of waste materials of the kth new energy power station reduced after the output delta P is reduced along with the thermal power station.
And then calculating and determining whether the emission reduction plan can control the carbon emission of the target area within the carbon emission quota:
if it is
If the output power is larger than 0 or the output power level of the current new energy power station is difficult to increase, the output power delta P of the new energy power station is increased, and then the step 5 is carried out.
7. The method according to claim 2, further characterized in that the step 5 is to monitor whether the current thermal power plant is equipped with carbon emission gas recovery devices and waste raw material recovery devices, and if yes, the step 6 is carried out; if not, selecting the second path, analyzing whether the discharge reduction amount is enough to fill the carbon discharge gap value, if so, returning to the step 1 to continue monitoring, and if not, entering the step 6.
8. The method according to claim 2, wherein in step 7, all current data and path selection modes are recorded, and meanwhile, a target regional energy system manager is warned that annual carbon emission of the target region is likely to be quota, a market trading plan for carbon emission is planned, after warning, whether the period is ended or not is judged, if not, the step 1 is returned to continue monitoring, and if the period is ended, the step is ended, and a carbon emission path selection log is generated.
9. A system applying the method for optimizing emission reduction scheme of power grid enterprise as claimed in claim 1.
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