CN115879655A - Method and system for optimizing emission reduction scheme of power grid enterprise - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention relates to an optimization method of an emission reduction scheme of a power grid enterprise, which comprises the following steps: determining estimated values of carbon emission of various power stations; establishing a power station carbon emission model of a target area; determining a difference between annual carbon emission and annual carbon emission quota within the target area; obtaining the future weather condition of the target area, and analyzing whether the future weather condition accords with the first emission reduction path; analyzing whether a second emission reduction path is met or not according to the installation conditions of the carbon emission gas and the waste raw material recovery device of the thermal power station; analyzing whether a third emission reduction path is met or not according to whether a raw material purchasing point of the thermal power station is changeable or not; and analyzing whether the raw material purchasing point of the fire power station is changeable or not to accord with a fourth emission reduction path. Compared with the prior art, different carbon emission models are established according to the energy structure characteristics of the existing power stations in China and respective unique carbon emission links, the difference of the carbon emission links between the traditional power station and the new energy power station is fully considered, the calculation mode of the difference of the carbon emission of the traditional power station and the new energy power station under the same electric power is established, on the basis, a proper emission reduction path is selected, the carbon emission of a target area is reduced through the output coordination between the power stations is preferentially considered, and therefore the extra emission reduction cost of a power grid enterprise is reduced.

Description

Method and system for optimizing emission reduction plan of power grid enterprises

technical field

The invention is an optimization method for energy saving and emission reduction in the electric power industry, and specifically belongs to a method and system for optimizing an emission reduction plan of a power grid enterprise.

Background technique

With the development of national economy and technology and the improvement of people's living standards, sustainable development is a common concern of all countries in the world. There is global recognition of the urgency and importance of major economies developing specific targets and plans to achieve net-zero emissions in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. For example, the analysis of PRI's "inevitable policy response" project shows that in the face of climate change risks, lagging, chaotic and disorderly policy responses will destroy the value of financial assets and make it more difficult to reduce emissions at the required rate. On the other hand, timely and strong action can ensure that the market seizes the opportunities for development and job creation brought about by sustainable and low-carbon industries in the future. For the reasons outlined above, investors are not only increasingly supportive of net-zero policy actions, but are also willing to invest and work with policymakers to design and implement policies that facilitate large-scale low-carbon capital flows.

In the process of carbon emission and carbon management, how to determine the path of energy saving and emission reduction is one of the current problems. How to choose a reasonable path of emission reduction according to the development of different enterprises so as to quickly achieve the double carbon goal is an existing problem. The missing link in technology.

As for the power industry, although it has not yet been included in the emission control industry, due to China's mineral deposits and traditional energy structure, although the pace of development of new energy has been accelerated, the current domestic thermal power plants still account for a large proportion of power generation. Under the energy structure system to optimize the emission reduction path, to meet the needs of domestic economic development and achieve the double carbon target as soon as possible, this is a problem that must be studied and solved for the power industry, especially for power companies. In the process of realizing the double carbon target, not only the economic cost, but also the stability of the power system must be considered, because power is the basic industry of the national economy, and it must be fully considered on the basis of the characteristics of the power industry and economic development. , realize the double carbon target, and choose a reasonable energy-saving and emission-reduction path, which is also a technical problem that needs to be solved in the current existing technology.

Contents of the invention

The method and system for optimizing an emission reduction plan of a power grid enterprise provided by the present invention can solve the dilemma in the prior art that it is difficult to reasonably balance economic costs, power grid output, and dual carbon targets, thereby realizing the rational choice of energy conservation and emission reduction for power enterprises path, optimize the industrial structure, and accelerate the realization of the double carbon target.

A method for optimizing an emission reduction plan of a power grid enterprise, comprising the following steps:

Step 1: Determine the estimated carbon emissions of various power plants;

Step 2: Establish the carbon emission model of the power station in the target area;

Step 3: Determine the difference between the annualized carbon emission and the annual carbon emission quota in the target area;

Step 4: Obtain the future weather conditions in the target area, and analyze whether it meets the first emission reduction path;

Step 5: According to the carbon emissions of thermal power plants and the installation of waste raw material recovery devices, analyze whether they meet the second emission reduction path;

Step 6: According to whether the raw material procurement point of the thermal power station can be changed, analyze whether it meets the third emission reduction path;

Step 7: Record all current data and path selection methods, output emission reduction path selection logs and provide carbon emission warnings.

Preferably, the first emission reduction path is to increase the power generation of new energy power stations, including but not limited to starting standby units, improving power generation efficiency, or increasing grid-connected power; the second emission reduction path is to increase the installation of carbon emission gas The recycling device and the recycling device for waste raw materials, the third emission reduction path is to re-plan the distance from the raw material procurement point of the thermal power station; the fourth emission reduction path is the low-carbon treatment of construction and operation and maintenance materials.

Preferably, the process of determining the estimated carbon emissions of various power stations in step 1 is as follows: set the target area as D area, and there are N power stations in this area, including several traditional energy stations, including M Home thermal power stations and several hydropower stations, K home new energy power stations, including but not limited to wind power stations, photovoltaic power stations and geothermal power stations,

Assume that there are M thermal power stations in total, and a thermal power station is M _i , where 1≤i≤M, its current installed capacity is G _i , and its theoretical installed capacity is G _max ,i. The price is V _i , the average transportation distance is D _i , the carbon emission per unit distance of the transportation vehicle is U _i , the average period of capacity expansion per unit installed capacity is T _M,i , and the actual energy conversion efficiency of the raw materials of the power station is ρ _i , the The theoretical carbon emission factor of the raw materials used in the power station is E _i , and the recovery efficiency of the carbon emission recovery device installed in the power station is α _i , if the power station does not have a carbon emission recovery device, then α _i = 0, and the power station has no carbon emission recovery device. The carbon recovery efficiency is θ _i , and the carbon emission J _i during normal construction and operation and maintenance. The J _i can be comprehensively calculated through the category and amount of building materials and operation and maintenance materials in the target area, as well as the corresponding measured values of carbon emissions ,

Assume that among K new energy power stations, the actual installed capacity of the kth new energy power station is S _k , and the theoretical installed capacity is S _max ,k. ) function is F _k (w, Sk, t). The function F _k can be obtained according to the statistics of previous years, or it can be drawn by measuring the current generating power of the unit through the current light intensity and wind intensity, where S _t is the actual input The unit used, w is the current weather factors, including wind, light, rainfall and other factors, which are replaced by w here, the grid connection efficiency is β _k , and the recovery efficiency of the carbon emission recovery device installed in the power station is α _k , if the If the power station does not have a carbon emission recovery device, then α _k =0, and the carbon recovery efficiency of the power station from waste raw materials is θ _k . At the same time, the carbon emission J _k of the new energy power station and the normal construction, operation and maintenance process;

The total carbon emission of the i-th thermal power station is:

Z _i ＝V _i ×D _i ×U _i +(P _i ÷ ρ _i )×E _i ×(1-α _i )+F _i ×(1-θ _i )+J _i ;

In the above formula, P _i is the actual power generation of the i-th thermal power station in the current statistical cycle, and F _i is the amount of waste materials in the i-th thermal power plant in the current statistical cycle.

The carbon emission of the kth new energy power station is:

Y _k = F _k (w, S _{k, t} )×(1-α _k )+F _k ×(1-θ _k )+J _k

Among them, F _k is the amount of waste materials of the kth new energy power station so far in the current statistical period.

Meanwhile, the carbon emissions of hydropower stations in the target area are:

X=W*W _E .

Preferably, the establishment of the carbon emission model of the power plant in the target area is:

C _s =ΣZ _i +ΣY _k +X.

Preferably, in the step 4, it is necessary to obtain the future weather conditions of the target area. Let the weather factors in the future time period T be W _f , and the W _f includes but is not limited to light intensity, wind force, and rain that can affect the output of new energy power stations. , fog, these weather factors are listed as an array, and input into the function F _k to determine the output power ΔP to be increased by all new energy power stations within the future time period T.

Preferably, according to the output power ΔP to be increased by all the new energy power stations, the emission reduction ΔZ of thermal power stations in the target area is determined, and the calculation process is as follows:

ΔZ＝∑((ΔP)÷ρ _i )×E _i ×(1-α _i )+ΔF _i ×(1-θ _i )

In the above formula, ΔF _i is the amount of waste materials of the kth new energy power station that will be reduced after the thermal power station plans to reduce the output ΔP,

ΔZ＝∑((ΔP)÷ρ _i )×E _i ×(1-α _i )+ΔF _i ×(1-θ _i )

In the above formula, ΔF _i is based on the reduction of the amount of waste materials at the kth new energy power station after the planned reduction of output ΔP of the thermal power station, and the calculation of the increased carbon emissions of the new energy power station:

ΔY＝∑(F _k (W _f , S _k )×(1-α _k )+ΔF _k ×(1-θ _k ))

In the above formula, ΔF _k is the amount of waste materials of the kth new energy power station that increases with the increase of output ΔP of the new energy power station, and then calculates to determine whether the above emission reduction plan can control the carbon emissions of the target area within carbon Within the emission quota:

Preferably, further, the step 5 is to monitor whether the current thermal power plant is equipped with a carbon emission gas recovery device and a recovery device for waste raw materials, if so, enter step 6; if not, select the second path, analyze Whether the emission reduction is enough to fill the carbon emission gap value, if so, return to step 1 to continue monitoring, if not, proceed to step 6.

Preferably, in the step 7, record all the current data and path selection methods, and at the same time warn the energy system management personnel of the target area that the annual carbon emission quota in the target area may be released, plan the carbon emission market trading plan, and judge whether to This cycle is over, if it is not over, return to step 1 to continue monitoring, if this week is over, end the above steps, and generate a carbon emission path selection log.

A system applying the method for optimizing an emission reduction plan of a power grid enterprise as claimed in claim 1.

Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the advantages of: aiming at the energy structure characteristics of existing power stations in China and their unique carbon emission links, different carbon emission models are established, and the carbon emission links between traditional power stations and new energy power stations are fully considered and establish the calculation method of the carbon emission difference between traditional power stations and new energy power stations under the same power, and choose an appropriate emission reduction path on this basis, giving priority to reducing carbon emissions in the target area through output coordination between power stations In order to reduce the additional emission reduction cost of power grid enterprises, if the above emission reduction path still cannot achieve the emission reduction goal, then choose the suboptimal path, such as the carbon emission of thermal power plants and the installation of waste raw material recovery devices, or judge the fire If the distance from the raw material procurement point of the power station still cannot meet the carbon emission procurement requirements, then consider unified low-carbon treatment of the construction, operation and maintenance of traditional power stations and new energy power stations, so as to reduce the carbon emissions of the target area as much as possible , while meeting the power supply needs of the target area, and achieving sustainable economic development.

Description of drawings

FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of steps in a method for optimizing an emission reduction scheme of a power grid enterprise according to the present invention.

Detailed ways

The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, and the steps are shown in FIG. 1 .

Set the geographical boundaries for energy saving and emission reduction, and set the target area as D area. There are a total of N power stations in this area, including several traditional energy stations, including M thermal power stations and several hydropower stations, and K new energy power stations. Including wind power plants, photovoltaic power plants and geothermal power plants, as well as power plants of other new energy types (such as nuclear energy and hydrogen energy).

For hydropower stations, considering that once a hydropower station is built, the technical difficulty and economic cost of unit transformation are relatively high, and the carbon emissions of hydropower generation are relatively low, generally between 0.81 and 12.8g_CO ₂ /kWh for hydropower, so in In the carbon emission optimization path, only the fixed carbon emissions of the hydropower station are calculated, that is, W*W _E , where W is the power generation of all hydropower stations in the area D, _{and WE} is the average power generation corresponding to the unit power generation of the hydropower stations in the area D Carbon emissions (including those generated by construction and operation and maintenance), which can be obtained from the comprehensive power generation of each hydropower station in the region D in the previous year and the corresponding carbon emissions statistics.

Assume that among M thermal power stations, a traditional energy power station is M _i , where 1≤i≤M, its current installed capacity is G _i , and its theoretical installed capacity is G _max,i . The raw material procurement cost per unit installed capacity of the power station is The average price is V _i , the average transportation distance is D _i , the carbon emission per unit distance of transport vehicles is U _i , the average period of capacity expansion per unit installed capacity is T _M,i , and the actual energy conversion efficiency of the raw materials of the power station is ρ _i , _The theoretical carbon emission factor of the raw materials used in the power station is E _i , and the recovery efficiency of the carbon emission recovery device installed in the power station is α _i . The carbon recovery efficiency of θ _i is θ i , and the carbon emission _{J i in} the normal construction and operation and maintenance process. is the historical mean value) to comprehensively calculate, since it is not the focus of the present invention, so it will not be repeated here.

For new energy power stations, compared with traditional thermal power stations, they do not need to use raw materials for combustion, so there are no considerations such as raw material procurement costs and transportation distances. However, the grid connection efficiency of new energy power stations is lower than that of thermal power stations, and The influence factors of received weather conditions are relatively large, so it is assumed that among the K new energy power stations, the actual installed capacity of the kth new energy power station is S _k , and the theoretical installed capacity is S _max,k . The function of weather factors (such as light intensity, wind intensity, etc.) is F _k (w, Sk, t), and the function F _k can be obtained according to statistics of weather factors in previous years, actual installed capacity and power generation, or through the current The light intensity and wind intensity are drawn by measuring the current generating power of the unit, where S _t is the unit actually put into use, and w is the current weather factor, including wind, light, rainfall and other factors, which are replaced by w here, and the grid connection efficiency is β _k , the recovery efficiency of the carbon emission recovery device installed in the power station is α _k , if the power station does not have a carbon emission recovery device, then α _k = 0, and the carbon recovery efficiency of the power station in waste raw materials is θ _k . At the same time, the carbon emission J _k of the new energy power station and the normal construction, operation and maintenance process, where 1≤k≤K.

After determining the above parameters, collect the carbon emissions in the target area, for example, by setting up carbon emission monitoring devices in each power station (including traditional power stations and new energy power stations). The connection between hydropower stations and the outside world is usually generated in transportation, hoisting, operation and maintenance for new energy power stations. Therefore, carbon monitoring and emission devices are installed in these links to further count the carbon emissions of new energy power stations.

After determining the above considerations, design the above energy saving and emission reduction paths:

Path 1: Increase the power generation of new energy power plants, including but not limited to starting standby units, improving power generation efficiency, or increasing grid-connected power;

Path 2: Increase the installation of carbon emission gas recovery devices and waste raw material recovery devices;

Path 3: Re-plan the distance of raw material procurement points for thermal power plants;

Path 4: Low-carbon treatment of construction and operation and maintenance materials.

Compared with the existing technology that simply restricts the power generation of thermal power plants, the present invention analyzes the characteristics of regional carbon emissions in multiple dimensions to achieve a reasonable selection of energy-saving and emission-reduction paths. The specific analysis steps are as follows:

Step 1: Determine the estimated carbon emissions of various power plants;

The total carbon emission Z _i of the i-th thermal power plant is:

Z _i ＝V _i ×D _i ×U _i +(P _i ÷ ρ _i )×E _i ×(1-α _i )+F _i ×(1-θ _i )+J _i ;

In the above formula, P _i is the actual power generation of the i-th thermal power station so far in the current statistical period, and F _i is the amount of waste materials of the i-th thermal power station in the current statistical cycle.

The carbon emission Y _k of the kth new energy power station is:

Y _k = F _k (w, S _{k, t} )×(1-α _k )+F _k ×(1-θ _k )+J _k

Among them, F _k is the amount of waste materials of the kth new energy power station so far in the current statistical period.

Meanwhile, the carbon emissions of hydropower stations in the target area are:

X=W*W _E ;

Step 2: Establish the carbon emission model of the power station in the target area as follows:

Cs＝ _∑Zi + _∑Yk +X

Step 3: Determine the difference between the annualized carbon emission and the annual carbon emission quota in the target area;

In the above formula, CE is the annual carbon emission quota in the target area, d is the number of days that have passed in the current cycle, and ΔC is the difference. If ΔC is less than 0, it means that the carbon emissions of the power station in the target area are within the planning range , there is no need to adjust the output mode of each power station, skip to step 1, and continue monitoring; if ΔC is greater than 0, it means that the carbon emissions of the power stations in the target area are too large, and the regional power supply mode of each power station in the area needs to be adjusted , go to step 4.

Step 4: Obtain the future weather conditions in the target area. Let the weather factors in the future time period T be W _f . The W _f includes but is not limited to light intensity, wind force, rain, fog, etc. that can affect the output of new energy power plants. These weather factors are listed as an array and input into the function F _k to determine the output power ΔP to be increased by all new energy power plants within the future time period T,

ΔP=∑F _k (W _f , S _{k, T} )-F _k (w, S _{k, t} )

And all new energy power plants increase output ΔY, and the carbon emissions to be increased are:

ΔY＝∑(F _k (W _f , S _{k , T} )×(1-α _k )+ΔF _k ×(1-θ _k ))

In the above formula, ΔF _k is the waste material amount of the kth new energy power station that increases with the increase of output ΔP of the new energy power station.

According to the proposed increase in output power ΔP of all new energy power stations, calculate the carbon emissions to be reduced by thermal power stations in the target area:

ΔZ＝∑((ΔP)÷ρ _i )×E _i ×(1-α _i )+ΔF _i ×(1-θ _i )

In the above formula, ΔF _i is the amount of waste materials of the kth new energy power station that will be reduced according to the proposed reduction of output ΔP of the thermal power station.

Determine whether the above emission reduction plan can control the carbon emission of the target area within the carbon emission quota:

为新能源电站增加出力目标区域的碳排放量与碳排放配额的差值，也可以称为调节后的碳排放缺口值，若/>

小于0，说明所述目标区域的电站碳排放量在规划范围内，采用节能减排路径1就能够解决目标区域内碳排放达标问题，提升新能源电站的出力，增加新能源电站的输出电力ΔP，则选择执行节能减排路径1，此时如果本周期尚未结束，则返回步骤 1，继续执行分析监测，若本周期已经结束，则跳转至步骤7；

The difference between the carbon emission of the target area and the carbon emission quota for the new energy power station can also be called the adjusted carbon emission gap value, if

If it is less than 0, it means that the carbon emission of the power station in the target area is within the planning range, and the energy-saving and emission-reduction path 1 can solve the problem of carbon emission compliance in the target area, increase the output of new energy power plants, and increase the output power ΔP of new energy power plants , then choose to execute energy saving and emission reduction path 1. At this time, if this cycle has not ended, return to step 1 and continue to perform analysis and monitoring. If this cycle has ended, skip to step 7;

大于0，或者当前新能源电站难以提升出力水平，则增加新能源电站的输出电力ΔP后进入步骤5。like

is greater than 0, or the current new energy power station is difficult to increase the output level, then increase the output power ΔP of the new energy power station and enter step 5.

Step 5, monitor whether the current thermal power plants are equipped with carbon emission gas recovery devices and waste raw material recovery devices, if so, go to step 6; For power stations, add carbon emission gas recovery devices and waste raw material recovery devices, that is, choose energy saving and emission reduction path 2, and calculate the carbon emission reduction after adding carbon emission gas recovery devices and waste raw material recovery devices to see if it is enough to fill the Carbon emission gap value, if the carbon emission gap can be filled, if this cycle has not ended, return to step 1 and continue to perform analysis and monitoring, if this cycle has ended, then jump to step 7; if it still cannot be filled The carbon emission gap, then go to step 6.

Step 6. Investigate whether there is a shorter distance raw material procurement point around the thermal power station. If so, change the original raw material procurement point to a closer raw material procurement point, that is, energy saving and emission reduction path 3, to shorten the raw material transportation process. However, if the raw material procurement point of the thermal power station cannot be changed, the energy-saving and emission-reduction path 4 is selected, for example, in the process of construction and operation and maintenance, materials with lower carbon content are used to reduce carbon emissions; , if this cycle has not ended, return to step 1 and continue to perform analysis and monitoring, if this cycle has ended, then jump to step 7;

If the thermal power station in the target area can neither change the raw material procurement point nor adopt low-carbon materials in the construction and operation and maintenance process, go to step 7.

Step 7. Record all current data and path selection methods, and at the same time warn the energy system managers of the target area that the annual carbon emission quota in the target area may be released, plan the carbon emission market trading plan, and judge whether this cycle has ended after the early warning. If it is not over, return to step 1 to continue monitoring. If the cycle is over, end the above steps and generate a carbon emission path selection log.

The present invention and its implementations have been described above, and this description is not limiting. What is shown in the drawings is only one of the implementations of the present invention, and the actual structure is not limited thereto. All in all, if a person of ordinary skill in the art is inspired by it, and without departing from the inventive concept of the present invention, without creatively designing a structure and an embodiment similar to the technical solution, it shall fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims (9)

1. an emission reduction scheme optimization method of a power grid enterprise, is characterized in that comprising the steps: Step 1: Determine the estimated carbon emissions of various power plants; Step 2: Establish the carbon emission model of the power station in the target area; Step 3: Determine the difference between the annualized carbon emission and the annual carbon emission quota in the target area; Step 4: Obtain the future weather conditions in the target area, and analyze whether it meets the first emission reduction path; Step 5: According to the carbon emissions of thermal power plants and the installation of waste raw material recovery devices, analyze whether they meet the second emission reduction path; Step 6: According to whether the raw material procurement point of the thermal power station can be changed, analyze whether it meets the third or fourth emission reduction path; Step 7: Record all current data and path selection methods, output emission reduction path selection logs and provide carbon emission warnings. 2. The method according to claim 1, further characterized in that the first emission reduction path is to increase the power generation of new energy power plants, including but not limited to starting standby units, improving power generation efficiency, or increasing grid-connected power; The second emission reduction path is to increase the installation of carbon emission gas recovery devices and waste raw material recovery devices; the third emission reduction path is to re-plan the distance of raw material procurement points in thermal power plants; the fourth emission reduction path is to Low-carbon treatment of dimensional materials. 3. The method according to claim 2, further characterized in that the process of determining the estimated carbon emissions of various power plants in the step 1 is as follows: set the target area as D area, and there are N power plants in this area. There are several traditional energy stations, including M’s thermal power station and several hydropower stations, K’s new energy station, including but not limited to wind power station, photovoltaic power station and geothermal power station, Assuming that there are M thermal power stations in total, a thermal power station is M _i , where 1≤i≤M, its current installed capacity is G _i , and its theoretical installed capacity is G _max,i . The raw material procurement cost per unit installed capacity of the power station is The price is V _i , the average transportation distance is D _i , the carbon emission per unit distance of the transportation vehicle is U _i , the average period of capacity expansion per unit installed capacity is T _M,i , and the actual energy conversion efficiency of the raw materials of the power station is ρ _i , the The theoretical carbon emission factor of the raw materials used in the power station is E _i , and the recovery efficiency of the carbon emission recovery device installed in the power station is α _i , if the power station does not have a carbon emission recovery device, then α _i = 0, and the power station has no carbon emission recovery device. The carbon recovery efficiency is θ _i , and the carbon emission J _i during normal construction and operation and maintenance. The J _i can be comprehensively calculated through the category and amount of building materials and operation and maintenance materials in the target area, as well as the corresponding measured values of carbon emissions , Assume that among K new energy power stations, the actual installed capacity of the kth new energy power station is S _k , and the theoretical installed capacity is S _max,k . ) function is F _k (w, S _{k, t} ), the function Fk can be obtained according to the statistics of previous years, or drawn by measuring the current power generation power of the unit through the current light intensity and wind intensity, where S _t is the actual unit, w is the current weather factors, including wind, light, rainfall and other factors, which are replaced by w here, the grid connection efficiency is β _k , and the recovery efficiency of the carbon emission recovery device installed in the power station is α _k , if the power station If there is no carbon emission recovery device, then α _k = 0, and the power station’s carbon recovery efficiency for waste raw materials is θ _k , and at the same time, the carbon emission J _k of the new energy power station and the normal construction, operation and maintenance process, where 1≤k ≤ K; The total carbon emission Z _i of the i-th thermal power plant is: Z _i ＝V _i ×D _i ×U _i +(P _i ÷ ρ _i )×E _i ×(1-α _i )+F _i ×(1-θ _i )+J _i ; In the above formula, P _i is the actual power generation of the i-th thermal power station in the current statistical cycle, and F _i is the amount of waste materials in the i-th thermal power plant in the current statistical cycle. The carbon emission Y _k of the kth new energy power station is: Y _k = F _k (w, S _{k, t} )×(1-α _k )+F _k ×(1-θ _k )+J _k Among them, F _k is the amount of waste materials of the kth new energy power station so far in the current statistical period, Meanwhile, the carbon emissions of hydropower stations in the target area are: X=W*W _E . 4. The method according to claim 3, further characterized in that the carbon emission model of the power plant in the target area is: C _s =ΣZ _i +ΣY _k +X. 5. The method according to claim 2, further characterized in that, in the step 4, it is necessary to obtain the future weather conditions of the target area, assuming that the weather factor of the future time period T is W _f , and the W _f includes but is not limited to The light intensity, wind, rain, and fog that can affect the output of new energy power plants are listed as an array and input into the function F _k to determine the output power ΔP to be increased by all new energy power plants within the future time period T. 6. The method according to claim 5, further characterized in that, according to the output power ΔP to be increased by all the new energy power stations, the emission reduction ΔZ of thermal power plants in the target area is determined, and the calculation process is as follows: The weather factor in the future time period T is W _f , which includes but is not limited to light intensity, wind, rain, fog, etc. that can affect the output _of new energy power plants. These weather factors are listed as an array and input into the function F _k , to determine the output power ΔP to be increased by all new energy power plants within the future time period T, ΔP=∑F _k (W _f , S _{k, T} )-F _k (w, S _{k, t} ) And all new energy power plants increase output ΔY, and the carbon emissions to be increased are: ΔY＝∑(F _k (W _f , S _{k , T} )×(1-α _k )+ΔF _k ×(1-θ _k )) Among them, ΔF _k is the amount of waste materials of the kth new energy power station that increases with the increase of output ΔP of new energy power stations; according to the proposed increase of output power ΔP of all new energy power stations, the proposed reduction of thermal power stations in the target area is calculated carbon emission: ΔZ＝∑((ΔP)÷ρ _i )×E _i ×(1-α _i )+ΔF _i ×(1-θ _i ) In the above formula, ΔF _i is the amount of waste materials of the kth new energy power station that will be reduced according to the proposed reduction of output ΔP of the thermal power station. Then calculate and determine whether the above emission reduction plan can make the carbon emission of the target area controlled within the carbon emission quota:

Add the difference between the carbon emissions in the output target area and the carbon emission quota for the new energy power station, that is, the adjusted carbon emission gap value, if />

If it is less than 0, it means that the carbon emission of the power station in the target area is within the planning range, and the energy-saving and emission-reduction path 1 can solve the problem of carbon emission compliance in the target area, increase the output of new energy power plants, and increase the output power ΔP of new energy power plants , and then return to step 1 to continue the analysis and monitoring; like

is greater than 0, or the current new energy power station is difficult to increase the output level, then increase the output power ΔP of the new energy power station and enter step 5. 7. The method according to claim 2, further characterized in that, further, said step 5 is to monitor whether the current thermal power station is equipped with a carbon emission gas recovery device and a waste raw material recovery device, and if so, enter step 6 If not, then select the second path, analyze whether the emission reduction is enough to fill the carbon emission gap, if so, return to step 1 to continue monitoring, if not, then enter step 6. 8. The method according to claim 2, further characterized in that, in said step 7, all current data and path selection methods are recorded, and at the same time, the energy system management personnel of the target area are warned that the annual carbon emission of the target area may appear. Quota, pre-plan carbon emission market trading plan, judge whether this cycle has ended after early warning, if not, return to step 1 to continue monitoring, if this cycle has ended, end the above steps, and generate a carbon emission path selection log. 9. A system applying the method for optimizing an emission reduction plan of a power grid enterprise as claimed in claim 1.

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