CN115860463A - Power transmission line early warning method and device, computer equipment and storage medium - Google Patents
Power transmission line early warning method and device, computer equipment and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application relates to a power transmission line early warning method, a power transmission line early warning device, computer equipment, a storage medium and a computer program product. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a first forecast of a target power transmission line in a target time period and first fault probabilities corresponding to fault states of the target power transmission line under the first forecast; determining a candidate fault state corresponding to the target power transmission line based on the magnitude relation between the first fault probability and a first threshold value; acquiring a second forecast corresponding to a sub-period in the target period, and calculating a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state based on the second forecast; and obtaining early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period based on each second fault probability. By adopting the method, the early warning efficiency of the power transmission line can be improved.
Description
Technical Field
The present application relates to the field of computer technologies, and in particular, to a power transmission line warning method, apparatus, computer device, storage medium, and computer program product.
Background
The early warning of the power transmission line refers to the action that before a natural disaster or other dangers needing to be raised, the power transmission line sends an emergency signal to relevant departments to report the dangerous condition, so that the power transmission line accident is prevented from happening under the condition of being unknown or insufficient in preparation, and the loss caused by the accident is relieved to the greatest extent.
In the traditional technology, early warning personnel perform early warning on the power transmission line according to the rules summarized in the past or the probability precursors obtained by observation, long analysis time is needed, and the problem of low early warning efficiency of the power transmission line exists.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the foregoing, it is desirable to provide a power transmission line early warning method, a device, a computer readable storage medium, and a computer program product, which can improve the early warning efficiency of the power transmission line.
In a first aspect, the application provides a power transmission line early warning method. The method comprises the following steps:
acquiring a first forecast of a target power transmission line in a target time period and first fault probabilities corresponding to fault states of the target power transmission line under the first forecast;
determining a candidate fault state corresponding to the target power transmission line based on the magnitude relation between the first fault probability and a first threshold value;
acquiring a second forecast corresponding to a sub-period in the target period, and calculating a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state based on the second forecast;
and obtaining early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period based on each second fault probability.
In one embodiment, said calculating a second failure probability corresponding to said candidate failure state based on said second forecasts comprises:
acquiring a target element category corresponding to the candidate fault state and target element identifiers of all target elements of the target element category in the target power transmission line;
acquiring parameter information of a target element corresponding to the target element identifier, and calculating element fault probability corresponding to each target element based on the second forecast and the parameter information;
and calculating to obtain a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state of the target transmission line based on each element fault probability.
In one embodiment, said calculating a component failure probability corresponding to each of said target components based on said second forecasts and parameter information comprises:
if the second forecast comprises a target forecast weather causing the target element to be in fault, calculating element fault probability corresponding to the target element based on the target forecast weather and the parameter information;
if the second forecast includes at least two target forecast weathers causing the target element to fail, calculating a single failure probability of the target element under each target forecast weather, and obtaining an element failure probability corresponding to the target element based on the single failure probability corresponding to each target forecast weather.
In one embodiment, the obtaining the element failure probability corresponding to the target element based on the single failure probability corresponding to each of the target forecasted weather includes:
obtaining a single normal probability corresponding to the target element under each target forecast weather based on the single fault probability corresponding to the target element under each target forecast weather; the sum of the single failure probability and the single normal probability of the target element under the same target forecast weather is 1;
fusing the corresponding single normal probabilities of the same target element under each target forecast weather to obtain the element normal probability of the target element;
and obtaining the element fault probability corresponding to the target element based on the element normal probability of the target element.
In one embodiment, the power transmission line early warning method further includes:
acquiring candidate transmission line identifications in a target area, and node loads, generator output and branch transmission power corresponding to each node in the candidate transmission line corresponding to the candidate transmission line identifications;
calculating to obtain the load loss corresponding to each node based on the node load, the generator output and the branch transmission power corresponding to each node;
accumulating the load losses corresponding to each node included in the candidate power transmission line to obtain the total load loss of the candidate power transmission line;
and determining the candidate power transmission line with the total load loss larger than the loss threshold value as the target power transmission line in the target area.
In one embodiment, the power transmission line early warning method further includes:
obtaining a fault state set of the target transmission line under a second forecast corresponding to the current sub-period based on each candidate fault state;
calculating a reference fault probability corresponding to a non-candidate fault state based on a second forecast corresponding to the current sub-period;
comparing the reference fault probability with the first threshold value, and determining the non-candidate fault state with the reference fault probability larger than the first threshold value as a new candidate fault state;
and updating the fault state set based on the newly-added candidate fault state to obtain an updated fault state set, wherein the updated fault state set is used as a second forecast fault state set corresponding to the next sub-period.
In an embodiment, the obtaining the warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period based on each of the second failure probabilities includes:
sequencing the second fault probabilities to obtain a fault probability sequencing result;
determining the early warning fault state of the target power transmission line under the second forecast based on the fault probability sequencing result;
and obtaining the early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period based on the early warning fault state.
In a second aspect, the application further provides a power transmission line early warning device. The device comprises:
the system comprises an acquisition module, a judgment module and a control module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring a first forecast of a target power transmission line in a target time interval and a first fault probability corresponding to each fault state of the target power transmission line under the first forecast;
the comparison module is used for determining a candidate fault state corresponding to the target power transmission line based on the magnitude relation between the first fault probability and a first threshold value;
the calculation module is used for acquiring a second forecast corresponding to a sub-period in the target period and calculating a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state based on the second forecast;
and the early warning module is used for obtaining early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period based on each second fault probability.
In a third aspect, the present application also provides a computer device. The computer device comprises a memory storing a computer program and a processor implementing the following steps when executing the computer program:
acquiring a first forecast of a target power transmission line in a target time period and first fault probabilities corresponding to fault states of the target power transmission line under the first forecast;
determining a candidate fault state corresponding to the target power transmission line based on the magnitude relation between the first fault probability and a first threshold value;
acquiring a second forecast corresponding to a sub-period in the target period, and calculating a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state based on the second forecast;
and obtaining early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period based on each second fault probability.
In a fourth aspect, the present application further provides a computer-readable storage medium. The computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, performs the steps of:
acquiring a first forecast of a target power transmission line in a target time period and first fault probabilities corresponding to fault states of the target power transmission line under the first forecast;
determining a candidate fault state corresponding to the target power transmission line based on the magnitude relation between the first fault probability and a first threshold value;
acquiring a second forecast corresponding to a sub-period in the target period, and calculating a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state based on the second forecast;
and obtaining early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period based on each second fault probability.
According to the power transmission line early warning method, the power transmission line early warning device, the computer equipment, the storage medium and the computer program product, a first forecast of a target power transmission line in a target time period and a first fault probability corresponding to each fault state of the target power transmission line under the first forecast are obtained, candidate fault states corresponding to the target power transmission line are determined based on the magnitude relation between the first fault probability and a first threshold value, then a second forecast corresponding to a sub-time period in the target time period is obtained, a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault states is calculated based on the second forecast, and early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-time period is obtained based on each second fault probability. The method comprises the steps of determining candidate fault states of a target power transmission line through first faults corresponding to the fault states of the target power transmission line under first forecasting, then calculating second fault probabilities corresponding to the candidate fault states of the target power transmission line according to second forecasting corresponding to sub-periods, determining early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-periods according to the second fault probabilities, determining the candidate fault states from the fault states as fault states needing attention of the target power transmission line in the target time period, determining the early warning information corresponding to each sub-period only by calculating the second fault probabilities corresponding to the candidate fault states in each sub-period, reducing the calculated amount of each sub-period, shortening the time for obtaining the early warning information of the power transmission line in each sub-period, and improving the early warning efficiency of the power transmission line.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is an application environment diagram of the power transmission line warning method in one embodiment;
fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of an early warning method for a power transmission line in one embodiment;
FIG. 3 is a flowchart illustrating a second failure probability calculation step in one embodiment;
fig. 4 is a flowchart illustrating a target transmission line determination step in one embodiment;
FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating the step of updating the set of candidate fault conditions in one embodiment;
fig. 6 is a schematic flow chart of an early warning method for a power transmission line in one embodiment;
fig. 7 is a block diagram of the early warning apparatus for the power transmission line in one embodiment;
FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an internal structure of a computer device according to an embodiment.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present application more apparent, the present application is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present application and are not intended to limit the present application.
The power transmission line early warning method provided by the embodiment of the application can be applied to the application environment shown in fig. 1. Wherein the terminal 102 communicates with the server 104 via a network. The data storage system may store data that the server 104 needs to process. The data storage system may be integrated on the server 104, or may be located on the cloud or other network server. The terminal and the server can be independently used for executing the power transmission line early warning method provided by the embodiment of the application. The terminal and the server can also be cooperatively used for executing the power transmission line early warning method provided by the embodiment of the application. For example, the computer device obtains a first forecast of the target transmission line in a target time period and a first failure probability corresponding to each failure state of the target transmission line under the first forecast, determines a candidate failure state corresponding to the target transmission line based on a magnitude relation between the first failure probability and a first threshold, then obtains a second forecast corresponding to a sub-time period in the target time period, calculates a second failure probability corresponding to the candidate failure state based on the second forecast, and obtains early warning information of the target transmission line in the sub-time period based on each second failure probability. The terminal 102 may be, but not limited to, various personal computers, notebook computers, smart phones, tablet computers, internet of things devices, and portable wearable devices, and the internet of things devices may be smart speakers, smart televisions, smart air conditioners, smart car-mounted devices, and the like. The portable wearable device can be a smart watch, a smart bracelet, a head-mounted device, and the like. The server 104 may be implemented as a stand-alone server or as a server cluster comprised of multiple servers.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, a power transmission line early warning method is provided, and the method may be applied to a computer device, where the computer device may be a terminal or a server, and may be executed by the terminal or the server itself, or may be implemented through interaction between the terminal and the server. The embodiment is described by taking the method as an example applied to a computer device, and includes steps 202 to 208.
The power transmission line is a high-voltage power line for transmitting power. The power transmission line is composed of a pole tower, a lead, an insulator string, a drainage wire and the like and is erected above the ground. According to the nature of the transmitted current, transmission lines are divided into alternating current transmission lines and direct current transmission lines. The target period refers to a period of time. It is to be understood that the target time period is a future time period, the target time period being a longer time period than the sub-period. For example, the target period is 12 hours after 12. The first forecast refers to weather forecast in a target time period, and the weather forecast refers to a result of analyzing and predicting weather in the future of a certain area according to basic theories and technologies of atmospheric science. The first forecasts include, but are not limited to, weather, air pressure, wind direction, humidity, precipitation, air quality. The fault state refers to the fault category of the transmission line. The fault conditions may be classified according to the element causing the transmission line fault, e.g. a drainage line fault, a pole tower fault, an insulator string fault, etc. The first failure probability refers to the probability of the target transmission line in a failure state under the first forecast. The first failure probability is related to the first forecast, the location where the component is mounted, the age of the component, and the like.
Exemplarily, the computer device obtains a first forecast of the target transmission line in a target time period, and then calculates first failure probabilities corresponding to failure states of the target transmission line under the first forecast according to the first forecast.
In one embodiment, computer equipment acquires a first forecast of a target power transmission line in a target time period and a fault element category corresponding to a target fault state; then acquiring fault element identifications of fault element types in the target power transmission line and fault element parameters corresponding to the fault element identifications; for each faulty element identification, calculating a first element probability of the faulty element corresponding to the faulty element identification based on the first forecast and the faulty element parameter corresponding to the faulty element identification; and obtaining a first fault probability corresponding to the target fault state of the target power transmission line under a forecast condition based on the first element probability corresponding to each fault element identifier.
And 204, determining a candidate fault state corresponding to the target power transmission line based on the magnitude relation between the first fault probability and the first threshold value.
The first threshold value refers to a threshold value of the failure probability. It is understood that the fault condition is determined to be the smallest fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault condition.
Illustratively, the computer device compares the first failure probability corresponding to each failure state with a first threshold value, and determines the failure state as a candidate failure state if the first failure probability corresponding to the failure state is greater than or equal to the first threshold value.
In one embodiment, the computer device determines a candidate fault state corresponding to the target transmission line based on a relation between the first fault probability and the threshold interval. And if the first fault probability corresponding to the fault state belongs to the threshold interval, determining the fault state as a candidate fault state.
In one embodiment, the computer device obtains a standard threshold corresponding to the power transmission line, obtains a first threshold of the target power transmission line under the first forecast based on the first forecast and the standard threshold, and determines a candidate fault state corresponding to the target power transmission line based on a magnitude relation between the first fault probability and the first threshold.
And step 206, acquiring a second forecast corresponding to the sub-period in the target period, and calculating a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state based on the second forecast.
Wherein, the sub-period refers to a period within the target period. The target period may be divided into a plurality of sub-periods, and the duration of each sub-period may be equal or unequal. For example, the target period is 12. The second forecast is a weather forecast for a sub-period. The second failure probability refers to the probability of the candidate failure state of the power transmission line under the second forecast.
Illustratively, the computer device obtains a second forecast corresponding to a sub-period in the target time period, and calculates a second failure probability of the target power transmission line in the candidate failure state under the second forecast according to the second forecast.
And 208, obtaining early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period based on each second fault probability.
The early warning information refers to warning information. The early warning information includes, but is not limited to, early warning elements, early warning levels, preventive measures, the location of the target transmission line, and the like.
Exemplarily, the computer device compares the second failure probabilities to obtain a comparison result, and then obtains the early warning information of the target transmission line in the sub-period according to the comparison result.
In one embodiment, the computer device compares the second failure probabilities to obtain a maximum second failure probability, determines a candidate failure state corresponding to the maximum second failure probability as a target failure state, obtains a failure element category corresponding to the target failure state, and obtains early warning information of the target power transmission line in a sub-period based on the failure element category.
According to the power transmission line early warning method, the candidate fault state of the target power transmission line is determined through the first fault corresponding to each fault state of the target power transmission line under the first forecast, then the second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state of the target power transmission line is calculated according to the second forecast corresponding to the sub-period, the early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period is determined according to the second fault probability, the candidate fault state is determined from each fault state and serves as the fault state needing attention of the target power transmission line in the target time period, the early warning information corresponding to each sub-period can be determined only by calculating the second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state in each sub-period, the calculated amount of each sub-period is reduced, the time for obtaining the early warning information in each sub-period is shortened, and the early warning efficiency of the power transmission line is improved.
In one embodiment, as shown in FIG. 3, calculating a second failure probability corresponding to the candidate failure state based on the second forecasts comprises:
Wherein the target component category refers to the component category that caused the candidate fault condition to occur. For example, the target element category may be a pole tower, a wire, an insulator string, a drain wire, and the like. The target element refers to each element of the target element class in the target transmission line. Target element identification refers to a string of characters that characterize the target element. The target element identification may be made of letters, numbers, symbols, and the like.
Illustratively, the computer device obtains a target element class corresponding to the candidate fault state, and then obtains a target element identifier of each target element of the target element class in the target power transmission line.
In one embodiment, the computer device obtains a target element type corresponding to the candidate fault state and a record table corresponding to the target power transmission line, where the record table includes information such as an element identifier, an element type, and an element parameter corresponding to each element in the target power transmission line, and then obtains all target element identifiers corresponding to the target element type from the record table corresponding to the target power transmission line.
And step 304, acquiring parameter information of the target element corresponding to the target element identifier, and calculating element fault probability corresponding to each target element based on the second forecast and the parameter information.
Wherein, the parameter information refers to parameters related to the target element. The parameter information includes, but is not limited to, a component mounting position, a component mounting height, a component service life, a component brand, and the like. The element failure probability refers to the probability that the target element fails under the second prediction.
Illustratively, the computer device obtains parameter information of the target element corresponding to the target element identification, and then calculates the element failure probability corresponding to the target element based on the second forecast and the parameter information corresponding to the target element.
And step 306, calculating to obtain a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state of the target power transmission line based on the fault probability of each element.
Illustratively, the computer device calculates the element failure probability corresponding to each target element to obtain a second failure probability of the target transmission line in the candidate failure state under the second prediction.
In one embodiment, the computer device calculates and obtains an element non-fault probability corresponding to the target element based on the element fault probability corresponding to the target element, then multiplies the non-fault probabilities corresponding to the target elements to obtain a second non-fault probability corresponding to a non-fault state of the target transmission line under a second prediction, and finally obtains a second fault probability of a candidate fault state of the target transmission line under the second prediction based on the second non-fault probability.
In one embodiment, the target transmission line comprises n target elements, and the target transmission line has a second failure probability P of a candidate failure state under a second forecast Power transmission line Comprises the following steps:
and pi is the element fault probability of the ith target element which fails under the second forecast, and n is the number of the target elements in the target power transmission line.
In this embodiment, the target element identifier in the target power transmission line and the parameter information corresponding to the target element identifier are determined according to the target element category corresponding to the candidate fault state, the element fault probability corresponding to the target element under the second prediction is calculated according to the second prediction and the parameter information, then the second fault probability of the target power transmission line in the candidate fault state under the second prediction is calculated according to the element fault probability of the target element in the target power transmission line, the calculation basis of the second fault probability is true and accurate, and the accuracy of calculation of the second fault probability is improved.
In one embodiment, calculating the component failure probability corresponding to each target component based on the second forecasts and the parameter information includes:
if the second forecast comprises target forecast weather causing the target element to be in fault, calculating element fault probability corresponding to the target element based on the target forecast weather and the parameter information; if the second forecast comprises at least two target forecast weathers causing the target element to be in fault, calculating the single fault probability of the target element under the target forecast weather aiming at each target forecast weather, and obtaining the element fault probability corresponding to the target element based on the single fault probability corresponding to each target forecast weather.
The target forecast weather refers to weather that may cause a target element to malfunction. The second forecast includes at least one target forecast weather. For example, the target forecast weather may be one of typhoon, rainstorm, hail, and snowfall. The single failure probability refers to the failure probability of the target element failing under a target forecast weather.
Illustratively, the computer device acquires target forecast weather from the second forecast, and if only one target forecast weather exists, the computer device calculates the element failure probability of the target element failing under the second forecast according to the target forecast weather and the parameter information corresponding to the target element; if two or more target forecast weathers exist, calculating the single fault probability of the target element in each forecast weather respectively aiming at each target forecast weather, and then obtaining the element fault probability corresponding to the target element according to the single fault probability corresponding to each target forecast weather of the target element.
In one embodiment, the computer device obtains a target forecasted weather reference table, then obtains candidate forecasted weather in a second forecast, and determines the target forecasted weather in the second forecast based on the target forecasted weather reference table and the candidate forecasted weather.
In the embodiment, the element failure probability calculation mode of the target element is determined according to the number of the target forecast weather, so that the accuracy of element failure probability calculation is improved.
In one embodiment, obtaining the component failure probability corresponding to the target component based on the single failure probability corresponding to each target forecast weather comprises:
obtaining a single normal probability corresponding to the target element under each target forecast weather based on the single fault probability corresponding to the target element under each target forecast weather; the sum of the single fault probability and the single normal probability of the target element in the same target forecast weather is 1; fusing the corresponding single normal probabilities of the same target element under each target forecast weather to obtain the element normal probability of the target element; and obtaining the component fault probability corresponding to the target component based on the component normal probability of the target component.
The single normal probability refers to the probability that the target element does not fail in the target forecast weather.
Illustratively, the computer device subtracts the single failure probability corresponding to the target element in the target forecast weather from 1 to obtain the single normal probability corresponding to the target element in the target forecast weather, then multiplies the single normal probabilities corresponding to the same target element in each target forecast weather to obtain the element normal probability of the target element, and finally subtracts the element normal probability of the target element from 1 to obtain the element failure probability corresponding to the target element.
In one embodiment, the second forecast includes two target forecast weathers, and the target component has a corresponding component failure probability P Component Comprises the following steps:
P component ＝1-(1-P 1 )(1-P 2 ) Formula (2)
Wherein, P 1 For the first of two targets, forecast weather, the probability of a single failure of the element, P 2 The single probability of failure of the element at the second of the two targets is forecasted.
In this embodiment, the element normal probability of the target element is obtained according to the single normal probability corresponding to the target element in the target forecast weather, and then the element failure probability of the target element is obtained according to the element normal probability of the target element, so that the accuracy of calculating the element failure probability is improved.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 4, the power transmission line early warning method further includes:
The target area refers to an area to be pre-warned. It can be understood as an area containing a target transmission line to be early-warned. The candidate power transmission line refers to a power transmission line included in the target area. The target area at least comprises one candidate power transmission line. The candidate transmission line identification refers to a character string for characterizing the candidate transmission line. A node is a connection point of two or more wires in a transmission line. It is understood that the connection point of the main line and the branch. The node load refers to the sum of electric power provided by the node to the electric equipment of the electric energy user at a certain moment. The output of the generator refers to the electric energy generated by the generator in unit time. The branch circuit transmitting power refers to electric power provided by the branch circuit to electric equipment of an electric energy user at a certain moment.
Illustratively, the computer device obtains candidate transmission line identifiers in the target area and node identifiers in the candidate transmission lines corresponding to the candidate transmission line identifiers, and then obtains node loads, generator output and branch transmission power corresponding to each node identifier.
And step 404, calculating to obtain the load loss corresponding to each node based on the node load, the generator output and the branch transmission power corresponding to each node.
The load loss refers to loss caused by the fact that the nodes cannot provide electric energy for the electric equipment due to the fault of the power transmission line.
Illustratively, for each node, the computer device calculates the node load, the generator output and the branch transmission power corresponding to the node, to obtain the load loss corresponding to the node.
In one embodiment, the computer device subtracts the generator output from the node load to obtain a first load loss, and then adds the first load loss to the transmission power of each branch circuit to obtain a load loss corresponding to the node.
In one embodiment, for each node, the computer device adds the transmission power of each branch corresponding to the node to obtain the branch load loss of the node, then subtracts the output of the generator corresponding to the node from the node load corresponding to the node to obtain the main path load loss of the node, and then adds the main path load loss of the node to the branch load loss of the node to obtain the load loss of the node.
In one embodiment, the load loss p of node i i Comprises the following steps:
p Zij ＝B ij *(a ij1 -a ij2 ) Formula (4)
Wherein p is Ii Is the node load of node i, p Gi Generator output, p, for node i Zij Branch transmission power of jth branch of node i, m is number of branches connected to node i, B ij Admittance of the jth branch, a, of node i ij1 The phase angle of the voltage at one end of the jth branch, a, at node i ij2 The voltage phase angle at the other end of the jth branch at node i.
And 406, accumulating the load loss corresponding to each node included in the candidate power transmission line to obtain the total load loss of the candidate power transmission line.
The total load loss refers to the total loss caused by the fact that the power transmission line cannot provide electric energy for the electric equipment.
Illustratively, the computer device obtains each node identifier included in the candidate power transmission line, then obtains load losses corresponding to each node identifier, and adds up the load losses to obtain a total load loss of the candidate power transmission line.
In one embodiment, the total load loss L of the candidate transmission line is:
wherein p is i And n is the number of nodes in the candidate power transmission line.
And step 408, determining the candidate power transmission line with the total load loss larger than the loss threshold as the target power transmission line in the target area.
The loss threshold refers to the minimum load loss of the candidate power transmission line determined as the target power transmission line.
Illustratively, the computer device compares the load loss corresponding to the candidate power transmission line with a loss threshold value, and determines the candidate power transmission line as the target power transmission line if the load loss is greater than the loss threshold value.
In this embodiment, the load loss of each candidate power transmission line is calculated, the target candidate power transmission line is determined according to the load loss of the candidate power transmission line, only one target candidate power transmission line needs to be determined, and one target power transmission line does not need to be selected at each sub-period, so that the calculation amount is reduced, and the efficiency of obtaining the early warning information is improved.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 5, the power transmission line early warning method further includes:
The failure state set refers to a set including each candidate failure state.
Illustratively, the computer device combines the candidate fault states into a fault state set, and the fault state set is used in the process of determining the early warning information corresponding to the target power transmission line in the current sub-period.
The non-candidate fault state refers to a fault state existing in each fault state but not in the fault state set. It is to be understood that a fault condition is not a candidate fault condition. The reference fault probability refers to the probability of a non-candidate fault state of the target power transmission line under the second forecast corresponding to the current sub-period.
Illustratively, the computer device calculates a reference failure probability for each non-candidate failure state based on the second forecasts for the current sub-period.
In one embodiment, the computer device obtains a target component identifier corresponding to the non-candidate fault state and parameter information of a target component corresponding to the target component identifier, then calculates a component fault probability corresponding to the target component based on the second forecast and the parameter information corresponding to the target component, and obtains a reference fault probability corresponding to the non-candidate fault state based on the component fault probability.
Illustratively, the computer device compares a reference failure probability corresponding to the non-candidate failure state with a first threshold value, and determines the non-candidate failure state with the reference failure probability greater than the first threshold value as a newly-added candidate failure state.
And step 508, updating the fault state set based on the newly added candidate fault states to obtain an updated fault state set, wherein the updated fault state set is used as a second forecast fault state set corresponding to the next sub-period.
Illustratively, the computer device adds the newly added candidate fault state to the set of fault states, resulting in an updated set of fault states. And using the updated fault state set as a fault state set under a second forecast corresponding to the next sub-period.
In this embodiment, a newly added candidate fault state is determined based on a relationship between a reference fault probability corresponding to a non-candidate fault state and a first threshold, then the newly added candidate fault state is added to a fault state set to obtain an updated fault state set, and the updated fault state set is used as a second-forecast fault state set corresponding to a next sub-period. The fault state set is updated according to the second forecast of the current sub-period, the range of candidate fault states is expanded, the accuracy of the early warning information corresponding to the next sub-period is improved, the fault state set is updated before the fault state set is used in the next sub-period, waiting is not needed when the fault state set is used in the next sub-period, and the efficiency of generating the early warning information in the next sub-period is improved.
In one embodiment, obtaining the early warning information of the target transmission line in the sub-period based on each second failure probability includes:
sequencing the second fault probabilities to obtain a fault probability sequencing result; determining the early warning fault state of the target power transmission line under second prediction based on the fault probability sequencing result; and obtaining early warning information of the target power transmission line in a sub-period based on the early warning fault state.
Exemplarily, the computer device ranks the second failure probabilities corresponding to the candidate failure states to obtain a failure probability ranking result, then determines an early warning failure state of the target transmission line under a second forecast according to the failure probability ranking result, and finally obtains early warning information of the target transmission line in a sub-period according to the early warning failure state.
In one embodiment, the computer device ranks the second fault probabilities corresponding to the candidate fault states to obtain a fault probability ranking result, determines the maximum second fault probability according to the fault probability ranking result, takes the candidate fault state corresponding to the maximum second fault probability as an early warning fault state, and obtains early warning information of the target power transmission line in a sub-period according to the early warning fault state.
In one embodiment, the computer device ranks the second fault probabilities corresponding to the candidate fault states to obtain a fault probability ranking result, sequentially obtains a preset number of second fault probabilities from the largest second fault probability based on the fault probability ranking result, takes the candidate fault states corresponding to the obtained second fault probabilities as early warning fault states, and obtains early warning information of the target power transmission line in a sub-period according to the early warning fault states.
In the embodiment, the early warning fault state is determined according to the fault probability sequencing result, and the early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period is obtained according to the early warning fault state, so that the calculation amount in the generation process of the early warning information is small, and the generation efficiency of the early warning information is improved.
In an exemplary embodiment, a structural block diagram of generating early warning information of a target transmission line in a typhoon storm, as shown in fig. 6, includes the following steps:
and determining a target power transmission line in the target area. Acquiring candidate transmission line identifications in a target area, acquiring each node identification in the candidate transmission line corresponding to the candidate transmission line identifications, then acquiring node loads and generator outputs corresponding to each node identification, admittance of each branch and voltage phase angles at two ends of each branch, calculating branch transmission power of each branch according to a formula (4), calculating the node loads, the generator outputs and the branch transmission power corresponding to each node according to a formula (3) respectively to obtain load losses corresponding to each node, adding the load losses corresponding to each node according to a formula (5) to obtain total load losses of the candidate transmission lines, comparing the load losses corresponding to the candidate transmission lines with a loss threshold value, and determining the candidate transmission line as the target transmission line when the load losses are greater than the loss threshold value.
A set of candidate fault conditions is determined. And acquiring a short-time forecast (the short-time forecast refers to the description of weather parameters of 0 to 12 hours in the future) of the target area, wherein the short-time forecast comprises two target forecast weathers of typhoon and rainstorm, the typhoon is used as a first target forecast weather, the rainstorm is used as a second target forecast weather, and for each target forecast weather, the single fault probability of the target element in the target forecast weather is calculated to obtain the typhoon fault probability and the rainstorm fault probability, and the element fault probability of the target element is calculated according to a formula (2). And then obtaining first fault probabilities corresponding to various fault states of the power transmission line under the condition of the approach prediction according to a formula (1). And respectively comparing the first fault probability corresponding to each fault state with a first threshold, if the first fault probability corresponding to the fault state is greater than or equal to the first threshold, determining that the fault state is a candidate fault state, and forming the candidate fault state into a candidate fault state set.
And determining early warning information of the target power transmission line under short-time forecast. The method comprises the steps of obtaining a nowcasting (the nowcasting refers to the description of weather parameters 0-2 hours in the future) of a target area, calculating second fault probabilities of candidate fault states of a target power transmission line under the nowcasting according to the nowcasting, comparing the second fault probabilities to obtain the maximum second fault probability, determining the candidate fault state corresponding to the maximum second fault probability as the target fault state, obtaining fault element categories corresponding to the target fault state, and obtaining early warning information of the target power transmission line in the nearby time period based on the fault element categories.
The set of candidate fault states is updated. Acquiring a target original mark corresponding to the non-candidate fault state and parameter information of a target element corresponding to the target element mark, calculating element fault probability corresponding to the target element based on the proximity forecast and the parameter information corresponding to the target element, and acquiring reference fault probability corresponding to the non-candidate fault state of the target power transmission line under the proximity forecast based on the element fault probability. And comparing the reference fault probability corresponding to the non-candidate fault state with a first threshold value, determining the non-candidate fault state with the reference fault probability larger than the first threshold value as a new candidate fault state, and adding the new candidate fault state into the fault state set to obtain an updated fault state set.
And acquiring the next approach forecast of the target area, and repeatedly executing the steps until the early warning information of the last approach period in the short-time forecast is obtained.
In this embodiment, candidate fault states of the target power transmission line are determined through first faults corresponding to the fault states of the target power transmission line under first forecasting, then, second fault probabilities corresponding to the candidate fault states of the target power transmission line are calculated according to second forecasting corresponding to the sub-periods, early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-periods is determined according to the second fault probabilities, the candidate fault states are determined from the fault states and serve as fault states needing attention of the target power transmission line in the target time period, the early warning information corresponding to each sub-period can be determined only by calculating the second fault probabilities corresponding to the candidate fault states in each sub-period, the calculation amount of each sub-period is reduced, the time for obtaining the early warning information in each sub-period is shortened, and the early warning efficiency of the power transmission line is improved.
It should be understood that, although the steps in the flowcharts related to the embodiments as described above are sequentially displayed as indicated by arrows, the steps are not necessarily performed sequentially as indicated by the arrows. The steps are not performed in the exact order shown and described, and may be performed in other orders, unless explicitly stated otherwise. Moreover, at least a part of the steps in the flowcharts related to the embodiments described above may include multiple steps or multiple stages, which are not necessarily performed at the same time, but may be performed at different times, and the execution order of the steps or stages is not necessarily sequential, but may be rotated or alternated with other steps or at least a part of the steps or stages in other steps.
Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the application also provides a power transmission line early warning device for realizing the power transmission line early warning method. The implementation scheme for solving the problem provided by the device is similar to the implementation scheme recorded in the method, so the specific limitations in one or more embodiments of the power transmission line early warning device provided below can be referred to the limitations on the power transmission line early warning method in the above, and details are not repeated herein.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 7, there is provided a transmission line early warning apparatus including: an acquisition module 702, a comparison module 704, a calculation module 706, and an early warning module 708, wherein:
an obtaining module 702, configured to obtain a first forecast of a target power transmission line in a target time period, and first failure probabilities corresponding to failure states of the target power transmission line under the first forecast;
a comparing module 704, configured to determine a candidate fault state corresponding to the target power transmission line based on a magnitude relationship between the first fault probability and the first threshold;
a calculating module 706, configured to obtain a second forecast corresponding to a sub-period in the target period, and calculate a second failure probability corresponding to the candidate failure state based on the second forecast;
and the early warning module 708 is configured to obtain early warning information of the target power transmission line at the sub-period based on each second failure probability.
In one embodiment, the calculation module 706 is further configured to: acquiring a target element type corresponding to the candidate fault state and target element identifications of all target elements of the target element type in the target power transmission line; acquiring parameter information of the target element corresponding to the target element identifier, and calculating element fault probability corresponding to each target element based on the second forecast and the parameter information; and calculating to obtain a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state of the target power transmission line based on the fault probability of each element.
In one embodiment, the calculation module 706 is further configured to: if the second forecast comprises target forecast weather causing the target element to be in fault, calculating element fault probability corresponding to the target element based on the target forecast weather and the parameter information; if the second forecast comprises at least two target forecast weathers causing the target element to be in fault, calculating the single fault probability of the target element under the target forecast weather aiming at each target forecast weather, and obtaining the element fault probability corresponding to the target element based on the single fault probability corresponding to each target forecast weather.
In one embodiment, the calculation module 706 is further configured to: obtaining a single normal probability corresponding to the target element under each target forecast weather based on the single fault probability corresponding to the target element under each target forecast weather; the sum of the single fault probability and the single normal probability of the target element in the same target forecast weather is 1; fusing the corresponding single normal probabilities of the same target element under each target forecast weather to obtain the element normal probability of the target element; and obtaining the component fault probability corresponding to the target component based on the component normal probability of the target component.
In one embodiment, the power transmission line early warning device further comprises a selection module, and the selection module is used for: acquiring candidate transmission line identifications in a target area, and node loads, generator output and branch transmission power corresponding to each node in the candidate transmission line corresponding to the candidate transmission line identifications; calculating to obtain the load loss corresponding to each node based on the node load, the generator output and the branch transmission power corresponding to each node; accumulating the load loss corresponding to each node included in the candidate power transmission line to obtain the total load loss of the candidate power transmission line; and determining the candidate power transmission line with the total load loss larger than the loss threshold value as the target power transmission line in the target area.
In one embodiment, the power transmission line early warning device further comprises an updating module, and the updating module is used for: obtaining a fault state set of the target transmission line under a second forecast corresponding to the current sub-period based on each candidate fault state; calculating a reference fault probability corresponding to the non-candidate fault state based on a second forecast corresponding to the current sub-period; comparing the reference fault probability with a first threshold value, and determining the non-candidate fault state with the reference fault probability greater than the first threshold value as a newly-added candidate fault state; and updating the fault state set based on the newly added candidate fault states to obtain an updated fault state set, wherein the updated fault state set is used as a fault state set under second forecast corresponding to the next sub-period.
In one embodiment, the early warning module 708 is further configured to: sequencing the second fault probabilities to obtain a fault probability sequencing result; determining the early warning fault state of the target power transmission line under second prediction based on the fault probability sequencing result; and obtaining early warning information of the target power transmission line in a sub-period based on the early warning fault state.
All modules in the power transmission line early warning device can be wholly or partially realized through software, hardware and combination thereof. The modules can be embedded in a hardware form or independent from a processor in the computer device, and can also be stored in a memory in the computer device in a software form, so that the processor can call and execute operations corresponding to the modules.
In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, which may be a terminal, and its internal structure diagram may be as shown in fig. 8. The computer apparatus includes a processor, a memory, an input/output interface, a communication interface, a display unit, and an input device. The processor, the memory and the input/output interface are connected by a system bus, and the communication interface, the display unit and the input device are connected by the input/output interface to the system bus. Wherein the processor of the computer device is configured to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of an operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium. The input/output interface of the computer device is used for exchanging information between the processor and an external device. The communication interface of the computer device is used for carrying out wired or wireless communication with an external terminal, and the wireless communication can be realized through WIFI, a mobile cellular network, NFC (near field communication) or other technologies. The computer program is executed by a processor to implement a power transmission line warning method. The display unit of the computer device is used for forming a visual picture and can be a display screen, a projection device or a virtual reality imaging device. The display screen can be a liquid crystal display screen or an electronic ink display screen, and the input device of the computer equipment can be a touch layer covered on the display screen, a key, a track ball or a touch pad arranged on the shell of the computer equipment, an external keyboard, a touch pad or a mouse and the like.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the architecture shown in fig. 8 is merely a block diagram of some of the structures associated with the disclosed aspects and is not intended to limit the computing devices to which the disclosed aspects apply, as particular computing devices may include more or less components than those shown, or may combine certain components, or have a different arrangement of components.
In one embodiment, a computer device is further provided, which includes a memory and a processor, the memory stores a computer program, and the processor implements the steps of the above method embodiments when executing the computer program.
In an embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the above-mentioned method embodiments.
In an embodiment, a computer program product is provided, comprising a computer program which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the above-mentioned method embodiments.
It should be noted that the user information (including but not limited to user device information, user personal information, etc.) and data (including but not limited to data for analysis, stored data, displayed data, etc.) referred to in the present application are information and data authorized by the user or sufficiently authorized by each party.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the processes of the methods of the embodiments described above can be implemented by hardware instructions of a computer program, which can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, and when executed, can include the processes of the embodiments of the methods described above. Any reference to memory, database, or other medium used in the embodiments provided herein may include at least one of non-volatile and volatile memory. The nonvolatile Memory may include Read-Only Memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash Memory, optical Memory, high-density embedded nonvolatile Memory, resistive Random Access Memory (ReRAM), magnetic Random Access Memory (MRAM), ferroelectric Random Access Memory (FRAM), phase Change Memory (PCM), graphene Memory, and the like. Volatile Memory can include Random Access Memory (RAM), external cache Memory, and the like. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM can take many forms, such as Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) or Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), among others. The databases involved in the embodiments provided herein may include at least one of relational and non-relational databases. The non-relational database may include, but is not limited to, a block chain based distributed database, and the like. The processors referred to in the embodiments provided herein may be general purpose processors, central processing units, graphics processors, digital signal processors, programmable logic devices, quantum computing based data processing logic devices, etc., without limitation.
All possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments may not be described for the sake of brevity, but should be considered as being within the scope of the present disclosure as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features.
The above-mentioned embodiments only express several embodiments of the present application, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the present application. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the concept of the present application, which falls within the scope of protection of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application should be subject to the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A power transmission line early warning method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring first forecasts of a target power transmission line in a target time period and first fault probabilities corresponding to fault states of the target power transmission line under the first forecasts;
determining a candidate fault state corresponding to the target power transmission line based on the magnitude relation between the first fault probability and a first threshold value;
acquiring a second forecast corresponding to a sub-period in the target period, and calculating a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state based on the second forecast;
and obtaining early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period based on each second fault probability.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein said calculating a second failure probability for the candidate failure state based on the second forecasts comprises:
acquiring a target element category corresponding to the candidate fault state and target element identifiers of all target elements of the target element category in the target power transmission line;
acquiring parameter information of a target element corresponding to the target element identifier, and calculating element fault probability corresponding to each target element based on the second forecast and the parameter information;
and calculating to obtain a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state of the target power transmission line based on the element fault probabilities.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein calculating a component failure probability for each of the target components based on the second forecasts and parametric information comprises:
if the second forecast comprises a target forecast weather causing the target element to be in fault, calculating element fault probability corresponding to the target element based on the target forecast weather and the parameter information;
if the second forecast comprises at least two target forecast weathers causing the target element to be in failure, calculating the single failure probability of the target element in each target forecast weather, and obtaining the element failure probability corresponding to the target element based on the single failure probability corresponding to each target forecast weather.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein obtaining the component failure probability corresponding to the target component based on the single failure probability corresponding to each of the target forecasted weather comprises:
obtaining a single normal probability corresponding to the target element under each target forecast weather based on the single fault probability corresponding to the target element under each target forecast weather; the sum of the single failure probability and the single normal probability of the target element under the same target forecast weather is 1;
fusing the corresponding single normal probabilities of the same target element under each target forecast weather to obtain the element normal probability of the target element;
and obtaining the element fault probability corresponding to the target element based on the element normal probability of the target element.
5. The method of claim 1, further comprising:
acquiring candidate transmission line identifications in a target area, and node loads, generator output and branch transmission power corresponding to each node in the candidate transmission line corresponding to the candidate transmission line identifications;
calculating to obtain the load loss corresponding to each node based on the node load, the generator output and the branch transmission power corresponding to each node;
accumulating the load losses corresponding to the nodes included in the candidate power transmission line to obtain the total load loss of the candidate power transmission line;
and determining the candidate power transmission line with the total load loss larger than the loss threshold value as the target power transmission line in the target area.
6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that it comprises:
obtaining a fault state set of the target transmission line under a second forecast corresponding to the current sub-period based on each candidate fault state;
calculating a reference fault probability corresponding to a non-candidate fault state based on a second forecast corresponding to the current sub-period;
comparing the reference fault probability with the first threshold value, and determining the non-candidate fault state with the reference fault probability larger than the first threshold value as a new candidate fault state;
and updating the fault state set based on the newly-added candidate fault states to obtain an updated fault state set, wherein the updated fault state set is used as a fault state set under second forecast corresponding to the next sub-period.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein the obtaining of the warning information of the target transmission line in the sub-period based on each of the second failure probabilities comprises:
sequencing the second fault probabilities to obtain a fault probability sequencing result;
determining an early warning fault state of the target power transmission line under the second forecast based on the fault probability sequencing result;
and obtaining early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period based on the early warning fault state.
8. A transmission line early warning device, characterized in that the device includes:
the system comprises an acquisition module, a judgment module and a control module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring a first forecast of a target power transmission line in a target time interval and a first fault probability corresponding to each fault state of the target power transmission line under the first forecast;
the comparison module is used for determining a candidate fault state corresponding to the target power transmission line based on the magnitude relation between the first fault probability and a first threshold value;
the calculation module is used for acquiring a second forecast corresponding to a sub-period in the target period and calculating a second fault probability corresponding to the candidate fault state based on the second forecast;
and the early warning module is used for obtaining early warning information of the target power transmission line in the sub-period based on each second fault probability.
9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, characterized in that the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the steps of the method of any of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 7.
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