CN115795902A - Method for evaluating preparation time of missile technology - Google Patents
Method for evaluating preparation time of missile technology Download PDFInfo
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- CN115795902A CN115795902A CN202211608759.9A CN202211608759A CN115795902A CN 115795902 A CN115795902 A CN 115795902A CN 202211608759 A CN202211608759 A CN 202211608759A CN 115795902 A CN115795902 A CN 115795902A
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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- Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
- Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
- Y02P90/30—Computing systems specially adapted for manufacturing
Abstract
The invention discloses a method for evaluating missile technology preparation time. Establishing an evaluation model based on a security test and a mathematical system; obtaining technical preparation time [ T1, T2, …, tn ] through a missile security test, inputting the [ T1, T2, …, tn ] into an evaluation model for evaluation, obtaining an evaluation value of the technical preparation time and judging whether test data are reasonable or not. The invention can optimize the guarantee test scheme and improve the evaluation level.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to an assessment method of a guarantee index, in particular to an assessment method of missile technology preparation time.
Background
The prior art of missile preparation time evaluation requires tests, is long in time and high in cost, has random influence quantity, and is difficult to accurately evaluate.
Technical preparation time in missile security indexes needs to meet certain requirements, testing is carried out through tests, but the times and samples of the tests are difficult to determine, and random non-responsibility fault influence needs to be considered. Therefore, on the basis of the completion of the security test of the missile, an evaluation method which can not only evaluate whether the test data is sufficient but also complete the preparation time of the missile technology needs to be designed.
Disclosure of Invention
The purpose of the invention is: a method for evaluating the preparation time of missile technology is provided. The invention can optimize the guarantee test scheme and improve the evaluation level.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows: an assessment method for missile technology preparation time is based on a guarantee test and a mathematical statistics and establishes an assessment model; obtaining technical preparation time [ T1, T2, …, tn ] through a missile security test, inputting the [ T1, T2, …, tn ] into an evaluation model for evaluation, obtaining an evaluation value of the technical preparation time and judging whether test data are reasonable or not.
In the method for evaluating the preparation time of the missile technology, the evaluation model is established by using a normal distribution least square method and a maximum likelihood method with Matlab as a platform.
In the foregoing method for evaluating preparation time of missile technology, the establishment of the evaluation model includes steps a:
suppose there is a technical setup time [ T1, T2, …, tn]，F n (t i ) Is an empirical distribution function of it, such that
The equation of the straight line to be fitted is y = a 4 +b 4 x，
The regression coefficient a can be estimated by using least square method 4 And b 4 Thus, an evaluation result can be obtained
In the foregoing method for evaluating preparation time of missile technology, the establishment of the evaluation model includes the steps of:
supposing that there is a technical preparation time [ T1, T2, …, tn ], the maximum likelihood estimation evaluation result
In the method for evaluating the technical preparation time of the missile, the technical preparation time of the missile is the time required for a single missile to be unsealed from a packing box to have an on-hook task execution state.
In the foregoing method for evaluating technical preparation time of a missile, the shortest time of the technical preparation time of a missile is the test time in the optimal state.
In the missile technology preparation time evaluation method, when the evaluation value accords with the lognormal distribution, the test data is judged to be reasonable.
In the foregoing method for evaluating the preparation time of the missile technology, the evaluation method is used to evaluate the rationality of the preparation time of the missile technology.
The invention has the advantages that: compared with the prior art, the method realizes the assessment of the preparation time index of the missile technology, optimizes the security test scheme and improves the assessment level.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of the principle of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further illustrated by the following figures and examples, which are not to be construed as limiting the invention.
Example 1. An assessment method of missile technology preparation time is disclosed, and an assessment model is established on the basis of a security test and a mathematical system, referring to fig. 1; and obtaining technical preparation time [ T1, T2, …, tn ] through a security test of the missile, inputting the [ T1, T2, …, tn ] into an evaluation model for evaluation, obtaining an evaluation value of the technical preparation time, and judging whether test data are reasonable or not.
The evaluation model is established by taking Matlab as a platform and adopting a normal distribution least square method and a maximum likelihood method.
The establishment of the aforementioned evaluation model includes:
a, step a: suppose there is a technical setup time [ T1, T2, …, tn]，F n (t i ) Is an empirical distribution function of it, order
The equation of the straight line to be fitted is y = a 4 +b 4 x，
The regression coefficient a can be estimated by using least square method 4 And b 4 Thus, an evaluation result can be obtained
Step b: supposing that there is a technical preparation time [ T1, T2, …, tn ], the maximum likelihood estimation evaluation result
And when the evaluation value accords with the lognormal distribution, judging that the test data is reasonable.
The technical preparation time of the missile is the time required for a single missile to be in an on-hook task execution state after the packing box is unsealed, one or more products are generally selected to be tested and determined once or more times in the current evaluation, the sample number and the test frequency of the products determine the size of an evaluation value, and because of the uncertainty of operation and the complexity of the test, a large number of tests cannot be carried out to obtain an accurate test result, the test results of the products are greatly dispersed, and the confidence coefficient is not high.
By adopting the evaluation method, the reasonability of the test scheme can be determined, the evaluation value of the missile technology preparation time can be accurately obtained, and the confidence level of the evaluation result is improved. The shortest time of the technical preparation time is the test time in the optimal state, the time in the real state is larger than the test time in the ideal state, and the method utilizes the characteristic that the probability distribution of the lognormal distribution moves to the right: the log normal distribution has a greater tendency to fluctuate upward and a lesser tendency to fluctuate downward, better describing the case where the technology preparation time is skewed to the right.
In the case of a certain product, 2 products are selected for 3 tests to obtain the technical preparation time of 67 minutes, 59 minutes and 63 minutes in order to evaluate the technical preparation time of the product, and the conclusion that the technical preparation time is 67 minutes at the longest, 59 minutes at the shortest and 63 minutes at average is obtained.
The test data is substituted into the evaluation model of the invention to obtain a correlation coefficient r =0.9998, which shows that the test data of the technical preparation time of the product conforms to the lognormal distribution, the mean value of the obtained technical preparation time is 62.92 minutes, the root mean square error is 0.0782, and the relative root mean square error is 0.141.
Claims (8)
1. A missile technology preparation time assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps: establishing an evaluation model based on a security test and a mathematical system; obtaining technical preparation time [ T1, T2, …, tn ] through a missile security test, inputting the [ T1, T2, …, tn ] into an evaluation model for evaluation, obtaining an evaluation value of the technical preparation time and judging whether test data are reasonable or not.
2. The missile technology preparation time evaluation method of claim 1, wherein: the evaluation model is established by taking Matlab as a platform and adopting a normal distribution least square method and a maximum likelihood method.
3. The missile technology preparation time evaluation method of claim 2, wherein: the establishment of the evaluation model comprises the following steps:
suppose there is a technical preparation time [ T1, T2, …, tn]，F n (t i ) Is an empirical distribution function of it, order
The equation of the straight line to be fitted is y = a 4 +b 4 x，
The regression coefficient a can be estimated by using least square method 4 And b 4 Thus, an evaluation result can be obtained
4. The missile technology preparation time evaluation method of claim 3, wherein: the establishment of the evaluation model comprises the following steps of:
supposing that there is a technical preparation time [ T1, T2, …, tn ], the maximum likelihood estimation evaluation result
5. The missile technology preparation time evaluation method of claim 1, wherein: the technical preparation time of the missile is the time required for a single missile to be unsealed from a packing box to have an on-hook task execution state.
6. The missile technology preparation time evaluation method of claim 5, wherein: the shortest time of technical preparation time of the missile is the test time under the optimal state.
7. The missile technology preparation time evaluation method of claim 1, wherein: and when the evaluation value accords with the lognormal distribution, judging that the test data is reasonable.
8. The missile technology preparation time evaluation method of claim 1, wherein: the assessment method is used for assessing the rationality of the missile technology preparation time.
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| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| CN202211608759.9A CN115795902A (en) | 2022-12-14 | 2022-12-14 | Method for evaluating preparation time of missile technology |
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| CN202211608759.9A CN115795902A (en) | 2022-12-14 | 2022-12-14 | Method for evaluating preparation time of missile technology |
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| CN202211608759.9A Pending CN115795902A (en) | 2022-12-14 | 2022-12-14 | Method for evaluating preparation time of missile technology |
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- 2022-12-14 CN CN202211608759.9A patent/CN115795902A/en active Pending
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