CN115712981A - Method and system for analyzing fine particulate matter source based on receptor and chemical transmission model - Google Patents
Method and system for analyzing fine particulate matter source based on receptor and chemical transmission model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of analysis of particulate matter sources, and discloses a method and a system for analyzing a fine particulate matter source based on a receptor and a chemical transmission model, wherein an initial pollutant concentration simulation value and an initial pollution source contribution simulation value are obtained through chemical transmission simulation by utilizing a mesoscale weather numerical mode, a gridded pollutant emission list and an air quality chemical transmission model; constructing a correction factor algorithm of comprehensive source analysis by utilizing the receptor species component concentration observed value and an effective variance least square method of a receptor model, and realizing calculation of a correction factor; and (4) correcting the simulation result by synthesizing the comprehensive source analysis traceability result of the advantages of the chemical transmission model and the receptor model to obtain a corrected particulate matter concentration simulation value and a corrected pollution source contribution simulation value. The method is suitable for analyzing the urban fine particulate pollution source, and can be used for obtaining the space-time distribution characteristics contributed by the urban fine particulate pollution source.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of analysis of particulate matter sources, and particularly relates to a method and a system for analyzing a fine particulate matter source based on a receptor and a chemical transmission model.
Background
Along with the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, the fine Particulate Matters (PM) of China are regional for a long time 2.5 ) The pollution problem is frequent, and the pollution has important influence on the atmospheric environment and the human health. Accurately quantifying PM in real time 2.5 Pollution sources and contribution thereof become effective PM treatment 2.5 Pollution and continuous improvement of the quality of the atmospheric environment.
At present, PM is analyzed domestically and abroad 2.5 When the pollution is from a source, a single source analysis technology such as a receptor model and a chemical transmission model is often adopted. The single-source analysis technologies have the disadvantages that the factors such as pollutant emission, pollutant transmission, receptor measured data and the like are not comprehensively considered, and the problems of source component spectrum collinearity, source identification subjectivity, low model operation speed, high simulation result uncertainty and the like are inevitably encountered, so that the final source analysis result is not accurate enough. Therefore, to increase PM 2.5 The accuracy and timeliness of the source analysis result need to adopt a comprehensive source analysis technology combining multiple model methods.
Disclosure of Invention
For the existing PM 2.5 The embodiment of the invention provides a method and a system for analyzing a fine particle source based on a receptor and a chemical transmission model, which avoid adopting single-source solution in a complex atmospheric environmentThe limitation of analysis technology greatly reduces the uncertainty of the source analysis result, and can accurately and quickly acquire the PM 2.5 Spatial and temporal distribution of source contributions, etc.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for comprehensively resolving a fine particulate matter source, including:
tracking the emission areas and emission industries of primary particles, secondary particles and gaseous precursors by using a local gridded pollutant emission list and an air quality chemical transmission model CAMx/PSAT (modified atmosphere chemical Transmission) constructed by a medium-scale weather numerical model WRF (modified weather parameter) and an atmospheric pollutant emission source list processing model SMOKE (generalized spatial formula for use in the future), and acquiring simulated initial PM 2.5 Species component concentrations and pollution source contributions;
PM according to acceptor region 2.5 External field observation to obtain receptor PM 2.5 Observed concentration values of species components;
according to the response relation between the species and the pollution source in the receptor model, constructing a correction factor algorithm of a comprehensive source analysis technology by using the initial analog value of the receptor species component, the observed concentration value and the effective variance least square method of the receptor model;
according to a quasi-Newton optimization function, carrying out optimal value solving on the correction factor algorithm to obtain a correction factor suitable for a receptor region, and further obtain the corrected PM 2.5 Species component concentrations and pollution source contributions;
according to the embodiment of the invention, the correction factor algorithm of the comprehensive source analysis technology is constructed through the chemical transmission simulation result and the receptor actual measurement data, so that the accuracy and the timeliness of the analysis result are greatly improved.
Optionally, the initial PM 2.5 Species component concentrations and pollution source contributions are obtained by:
the mesoscale weather numerical mode WRF obtains a meteorological field of the simulation area by comprehensively considering ground data such as terrain, land utilization, soil type and the like, meteorological initial field data and a physical parameterization scheme of the simulation area;
the local networked pollutant emission list constructed by the atmospheric pollutant emission source list processing model SMOKE is subjected to refined distribution in time and space by taking a local emission list as basic data through the SMOKE model to obtain a local simulation area list suitable for a CAMx/PSAT model;
inputting the meteorological field simulated by the WRF and the local networked pollutant emission list constructed by the SMOKE into the air quality chemical transmission model CAMx/PSAT to obtain PM in a receptor region 2.5 The initial gridded simulated concentrations of the components and the pollution source emission contribution.
According to the embodiment of the invention, the accuracy of the initial simulation result is improved by embedding the localized ground data and the emission list data into the model.
Optionally, the correction factor algorithm of the integrated source analysis technique is obtained by:
constructing a correction factor algorithm of a comprehensive source analysis technology by an effective variance least square method according to the observed concentration value and the initial simulation value of the receptor species component, wherein the correction factor algorithm comprises the following steps:
according to the measurement error and detection limit of the receptor species component external field observation instrument, acquiring the uncertainty of the receptor species component observation concentration;
and acquiring uncertainty of the chemical transmission model to the initial simulated concentration of the receptor species component according to the observed concentration value of the receptor species component and the normalized prediction error of the species component in the chemical transmission model.
According to the embodiment of the invention, after the data and the uncertainty of the data of the chemical transmission model simulation and the receptor observation are comprehensively considered, the correction factor is optimally solved by an effective variance least square method, so that the accuracy of the simulation result after correction is greatly improved.
Optionally, the correction factor applied to the receptor region is obtained by:
performing nonlinear optimization fitting on the minimum value of the objective function by a Newton dichotomy iterative optimization calculation method according to the objective function of the correction factor algorithm to obtain an optimized correction factor R; wherein, R is usually between 0.10 and 10.00, and the operation step length is 0.01.
According to the embodiment of the invention, through a Newton dichotomy iterative optimization calculation method, the optimal value of the correction factor algorithm is solved by taking 0.01 as the operation step length, so that more accurate correction factors can be obtained.
Optionally, the method further comprises:
fitting according to the correction factor of the receptor region, the initial simulated concentration and the pollution source contribution to obtain fitting parameters and construct a fitting function;
gridding PM according to the fitting parameters 2.5 Correcting the initial simulated concentration of species components and the pollution source contribution to obtain a corrected PM 2.5 Species component concentrations and spatial distribution of pollution source contributions.
According to the embodiment of the invention, the corrected gridded PM is quickly obtained by constructing the fitting function of the correction factor and the initial simulation concentration and the pollution source contribution 2.5 Species component concentrations and pollution source contributions, thereby improving the accuracy and timeliness of the simulation results on the spatial scale.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a system for resolving a fine particulate matter source based on a receptor and a chemical transport model by using the method for comprehensively resolving a fine particulate matter source, where the system for resolving a fine particulate matter source based on a receptor and a chemical transport model includes:
the chemical transmission simulation module is used for building a mesoscale weather numerical mode WRF, an atmospheric pollutant emission source list processing model SMOKE and an air quality chemical transmission model CAMx/PSAT based on a computer operating system LINUX, obtaining a meteorological field of a simulation area by using the mesoscale weather numerical mode WRF, building a local gridded pollutant emission list by using the atmospheric pollutant emission source list processing model SMOKE, inputting the local gridded pollutant emission list into the air quality chemical transmission model CAMx/PSAT, and obtaining PM in a receptor area 2.5 Initial gridded simulated concentrations of components and pollution source emission contributions;
the correction factor calculation module is used for providing a correction factor algorithm based on the response relation between the species and the pollution source in the receptor model and combining the initial analog value and the observed concentration value of the receptor species, carrying out nonlinear optimization fitting on the minimum value of the objective function through a Newton dichotomy iterative optimization calculation method according to the objective function of the correction factor algorithm, and obtaining the correction factor of comprehensive source analysis, wherein the specific implementation mode can carry out data processing and iterative solution by using computer programming languages such as Python, matlab and the like;
a simulation result correction module for obtaining more accurate PM by using the correction factor R 2.5 Species component concentrations and pollution source contribution values, as well as temporal and spatial distributions of both.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments of the present invention will be briefly described below, it should be understood that the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention, and therefore should not be considered as limiting the scope, and for those skilled in the art, other related drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 shows an exemplary embodiment of an analytic PM 2.5 A schematic method flow diagram of the source;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of an exemplary embodiment of an analytic PM 2.5 A system configuration view of the source;
FIG. 3 shows an initial simulation error squared X provided by an embodiment of the present invention 0 2 And optimizing the square of the simulation error X 2 A schematic of the correlation of (a);
FIG. 4 shows a PM in a receptor region according to an embodiment of the present invention 2.5 And a schematic diagram of the correlation between the component observed concentration and the initial and optimized simulated concentrations;
FIG. 5 shows 47 air quality monitoring stations PM in Chongqing City according to an embodiment of the present invention 2.5 Initial and optimized simulated concentration profiles.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is further described in detail with reference to the following embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and do not limit the invention.
Before the present application, to PM 2.5 The source analysis of (2) usually adopts a single source analysis technology such as a receptor model, a chemical transmission model and the like. The single-source analysis technologies have the disadvantages that the factors such as pollutant emission, pollutant transmission and receptor measured data are not comprehensively considered, and the problems of source component spectrum collinearity, source identification subjectivity, large simulation result uncertainty and the like are inevitably faced, which leads to the final source analysis result being inaccurate.
To solve the problem, the present invention provides a method and system for resolving a fine particulate source based on a receptor and a chemical transport model, and the present invention is described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
As shown in fig. 1, a method for resolving a fine particulate matter source based on a receptor and a chemical transport model provided by an embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps:
s101, chemical transmission simulation: obtaining PM using CAMx/PSAT model 2.5 The gridded concentration of the components and the pollution source initial emission contribution;
s102, calculating a correction factor: based on the response relation between the receptor model species and the pollution source, a correction factor algorithm is provided by combining the initial simulation value and the observed concentration value of the receptor species component, and a correction factor for comprehensive source analysis is obtained;
s103, correcting a simulation result: obtaining more accurate PM by using correction factor R 2.5 The contamination source contribution and simulated concentration values of the species components, and the temporal and spatial distribution of both.
As a preferred embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, the system for resolving a fine particulate matter source based on a receptor and a chemical transport model provided in the embodiment of the present invention specifically includes the following steps:
the first step is as follows: PM (particle matter) obtained by using CAMx/PSAT (particle swarm optimization/particle swarm optimization) model 2.5 The gridding concentration of the components and the initial emission contribution of the pollution source are implemented by the following steps:
(1) Performing meteorological simulation of preset resolution on a research area based on a mesoscale meteorological model WRF: and selecting a simulation time period, collecting initial meteorological field, terrain and land utilization data required by a meteorological model, and simulating the research area.
(2) Generating gridding pollutant emission lists of different emission industries by using an atmospheric pollutant emission source list processing model SMOKE: the pollutant emission list adopts a localized emission list established based on methods such as an emission factor method and material balance, and is further refined and distributed in time and space through an SMOKE model, and localized treatment is carried out, so that an industry-divided gridded pollutant emission list suitable for a CAMx/PSAT model simulation and source tracing system is generated.
(3) Using a CAMx/PSAT model to simulate and obtain PM in a receptor region 2.5 Initial gridding simulation concentrations of components and emission contributions of different industry pollution sources: inputting the WRF simulation result and the industry-divided gridding pollutant emission list generated by the SMOKE model into the CAMx/PSAT model, and carrying out PM (particle matter emission) treatment 2.5 Concentration and emissions industry contributions were simulated.
The second step: based on the response relation between receptor model CMB species and pollution sources, and combined with CAMx/PSAT model simulation results, a new correction factor algorithm is provided to obtain a correction factor (innovation point) for comprehensive source analysis, and the specific steps are as follows:
(1) Receptor spotted PM by receptor assay 2.5 Observed concentration of species C i ，PM 2.5 The main species including SO 4 2- 、NO 3 - 、NH 4 + EC, OC, etc.; obtaining PM in a receptor region based on CAMx/PSAT source analysis technology 2.5 Initial gridding simulation concentration of components and emission contribution of pollution source, and defining the obtained contribution value of the pollution source as the initial contribution value of the pollution source of the species i and the source j
(2) And establishing the deviation between the concentration simulation result and the observation result of each species from different pollution sources as a target function (formula 1) by referring to a typical receptor model effective variance least square method formula, and inputting an initial pollution source contribution value, a receptor observation concentration and an uncertainty parameter into the formula (1).
In the formula: x 2 Is the square of the simulation error; r j A comprehensive source analytic model correction factor for source j;
an observed concentration value for species i;
an initial simulated concentration value for species i; sigma i,obs Observing uncertainty in concentration values for species i; delta. For the preparation of a coating i Normalized model error for species i being emitted from source to observation.
(3) Obtaining a correction factor R of the comprehensive source analysis model through nonlinear optimization fitting of the minimum value of the objective function; the solution process adopts Newton's dichotomy iterative optimization calculation method, and the optional range of R value is usually between 0.10 and 10.00.
The third step: obtaining more accurate PM by using correction factor R 2.5 The pollution source contribution value and the simulated concentration value of the component.
Obtaining the optimized PM through calculation of formula (2) and formula (3) 2.5 Pollution source contribution of a component
And simulated concentration values
In the formula, R j As a synthesis of source jA source-analysis-model correction factor,
for the initial value of the contribution of the simulated concentration,
initial simulated concentration values for species i.
The selection of typical PM once in winter in main city of Chongqing city is described below 2.5 Analyzing PM of the pollution process (21-27 days 1 month in 2019) by the comprehensive model source analysis method 2.5 And selecting PM for 47 air quality monitoring stations in the same time period 2.5 Protocol for evaluation of the method by concentration data.
PM 2.5 The observed components comprise OC, EC, 9 water-soluble inorganic ions and 16 heavy metal elements. PM of 47 air quality monitoring stations in Chongqing city at the same time period is selected 2.5 And carrying out case analysis of the comprehensive source analysis method on the concentration data.
FIG. 3 shows an initial simulation error squared X provided by an embodiment of the present application 0 2 And optimizing the square of the simulation error X 2 Schematic diagram of the correlation of (1). During observation, the simulation error square value based on the comprehensive source analysis method is 84.58% lower than that of a single chemical transmission model, and the comprehensive source analysis method greatly reduces the uncertainty of a source analysis result.
FIG. 4 shows a PM in a receptor region according to an embodiment of the present invention 2.5 And a schematic diagram of the correlation between the observed concentration of the components thereof and the initial and optimized simulated concentrations thereof. In a specific implementation process, the correlation coefficient between the concentration of the optimized simulation component obtained based on the comprehensive source analysis method and the concentration of the actual observed component is high, the relative error is low, the simulation result is obviously superior to the initial simulation, and the comprehensive source analysis method improves the accuracy of the source analysis result.
FIG. 5 shows 47 air quality monitoring stations PM provided by the embodiment of the invention 2.5 Initial and optimized simulated concentration profiles. In a specific implementation process, optimization simulation obtained based on a comprehensive source analysis methodThe concentration was highly consistent with the trend of the actual observed concentration for 47 air quality monitoring stations (r =0.82<0.001). In addition, compared with the initial simulation, the optimized contribution space distribution result of each pollution source obtained based on the comprehensive source analysis method is more consistent with the actual situation of the pollution source space distribution. The comprehensive source analysis method improves the accuracy and timeliness of the simulation result on the spatial scale.
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the present invention and the appended claims are not to be construed as limiting the scope of the invention, which is intended to cover all modifications, equivalents and improvements that are within the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for resolving a source of fine particulate matter based on a receptor and chemical transport model, the method comprising:
obtaining an initial pollutant concentration simulation value and an initial pollution source contribution simulation value through chemical transmission simulation by utilizing a local gridding pollutant emission list and an air quality chemical transmission model CAMx/PSAT which are constructed by a medium-scale weather numerical mode WRF and an atmospheric pollutant emission source list processing model SMOKE;
constructing a correction factor algorithm of comprehensive source analysis by using the receptor species component concentration observed value and an effective variance least square method of a receptor model, and realizing calculation of a correction factor; and (4) correcting the simulation result by synthesizing the comprehensive source analysis traceability result of the advantages of the chemical transmission model and the receptor model to obtain a corrected particulate matter concentration simulation value and a corrected pollution source contribution simulation value.
2. The method for receptor and chemical transport model based resolution of a source of fine particulate matter of claim 1, wherein the receptor and chemical transport model based resolution of a source of fine particulate matter further comprises:
simulating by using an air quality mode CAMx by inputting meteorological field data and emission list data; tracking the reaction process of the pollution source by using PSAT (particle swarm optimization) which is an important expansion plate in a CAMx model, and tracking the emission areas and the emission sources of primary particles, secondary particles and gaseous precursors to obtain initial pollution source data;
wherein, the meteorological field of the CAMx model uses a middle-scale weather model WRF simulation; the emission list is a localized emission list compiled by using a MEIC grid list data set of Qinghua university or combining an emission factor method and a field investigation mode, and after the list is compiled, a SMOKE model is used for time and space distribution to obtain a grid emission list suitable for the model;
based on the response relation between the receptor model CMB species and the pollution source, combining the simulation result of the chemical transmission model, providing a new correction factor algorithm to obtain a correction factor suitable for a receptor area; optimizing to obtain a more accurate PM suitable for a receptor region based on the correction factor, the initial pollution source contribution simulation value data 2.5 Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of pollution sources and PM of receptor regions of various industries 2.5 The contribution of the pollution source.
3. The method for receptor and chemical transport model based resolution of a source of fine particulate matter of claim 1, wherein the receptor and chemical transport model based resolution of a source of fine particulate matter comprises the steps of:
step one, chemical transmission simulation: obtaining the gridding concentration of the particulate matter component and the initial emission contribution of the pollution source by using a CAMx/PSAT model;
step two, calculating a correction factor: based on the response relation between the receptor model CMB species and the pollution source, a correction factor algorithm is provided by combining a chemical transmission model simulation result to obtain a correction factor for comprehensive source analysis;
step three, correcting a simulation result: obtaining more accurate PM by using correction factor R 2.5 The pollution source contribution and the simulated concentration values of the components.
4. The method of claim 3 for resolving a source of fine particulate matter based on receptor and chemical transport modelsThe method is characterized in that the PM is obtained by using a CAMx/PSAT model in the step one 2.5 The gridded concentrations of the components and the pollution source initial emission contributions include:
(1) Performing meteorological simulation of preset resolution on the research area based on a mesoscale meteorological model WRF: and selecting a simulation time period, collecting initial meteorological field, terrain and land utilization data required by a meteorological model, and simulating the research area.
(2) Generating a gridded pollutant emission list of different emission industries by using an SMOKE model: the pollutant emission list adopts a localized emission list established based on methods such as an emission factor method and material balance, and is further refined and distributed in time and space through a pollution source emission list SMOKE model, and localized treatment is carried out, so that an industry-divided gridded pollutant emission list suitable for a CAMx/PSAT model simulation and source tracing system is generated.
(3) Simulating to obtain PM in a receptor region by using a CAMx/PSAT model 2.5 Initial gridding simulation concentration of components and emission contribution of pollution sources of different industries: inputting the WRF simulation result and the industry-divided gridding pollutant emission list generated by the SMOKE list processing tool into a CAMx/PSAT model, and carrying out PM (particle matter model) treatment 2.5 Concentration and emissions industry contributions were simulated.
5. The method for analyzing a source of fine particulate matter based on a receptor and a chemical transport model according to claim 3, wherein in the second step, based on the response relationship between the receptor model CMB species and the pollution source, and in combination with the simulation result of the CAMx/PSAT model, a new correction factor algorithm is proposed, and obtaining the correction factor for the comprehensive source analysis comprises:
(1) Receptor spotted PM by receptor assay 2.5 Observed concentration of species C i ，PM 2.5 The main species including SO 4 2- 、NO 3 - 、NH 4 + EC, OC, etc.; obtaining PM in a receptor region based on CAMx/PSAT source analysis technology 2.5 Initial gridding simulation concentration of components and emission contribution of pollution source, and defining the obtained pollution source contribution value as species i andinitial pollution Source contribution value of Source j
(2) Establishing deviation between concentration simulation results and observation results of various species from different pollution sources as a target function by referring to a typical receptor model effective variance least square method formula, and inputting initial pollution source contribution values, receptor observation concentrations and uncertainty parameters into the following formula:
in the formula: x 2 Is the square of the simulation error; r is j A comprehensive source analytic model correction factor for source j;
an observed concentration value for species i;
an initial simulated concentration value for species i; sigma i,obs Observing uncertainty in concentration values for species i; delta i Normalized model error for species i emitted from source to observation.
(3) Obtaining a correction factor R of the comprehensive source analysis model through nonlinear optimization fitting of the minimum value of the objective function; the solution process adopts Newton's dichotomy iterative optimization calculation method, and the optional range of R value is usually between 0.10 and 10.00.
6. The method for analyzing a source of fine particulate matter based on a receptor and chemical transport model according to claim 3, wherein the correction factor R is used to obtain more accurate PM in step three 2.5 The pollution source contribution and simulated concentration values of the components include:
obtaining the optimized PM through the following calculation 2.5 Pollution source contribution of a component
And simulated concentration values
In the formula, R j For the integrated source analytical model modifier for source j,
for the initial value of the contribution of the simulated concentration,
concentration values were initially simulated for species i.
7. Analytical PM of the method for analyzing fine particulate matter source based on receptor and chemical transport model according to any one of claims 1 to 6 2.5 A system for resolving a source of fine particulates based on a receptor and chemical transport model, comprising:
the chemical transmission simulation module is used for obtaining the gridding concentration of the particulate matter components and the initial emission contribution of the pollution source by using a CAMx/PSAT model;
the correction factor calculation module is used for providing a correction factor algorithm by combining a chemical transmission model simulation result based on the response relation between the receptor model CMB species and the pollution source to obtain a correction factor analyzed by the comprehensive source;
a simulation result correction module for obtaining more accurate PM by using the correction factor R 2.5 The pollution source contribution value and the simulated concentration value of the component.
8. A computer device, characterized in that it comprises a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program which, when executed by the processor, causes the processor to carry out the method of resolving a source of fine particulate matter based on a receptor and chemical transport model according to any one of claims 1 to 6.
9. A computer readable storage medium storing a computer program which, when executed by a processor, causes the processor to perform a method of resolving a source of fine particulate matter based on a receptor and chemical transport model according to any one of claims 1 to 6.
10. An information data processing terminal characterized by being configured to implement the parsing PM of claim 7 2.5 A system of sources.
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| CN117059198A (en) * | 2023-06-29 | 2023-11-14 | 华南理工大学 | Emission list feedback updating method, system and equipment based on response surface model |
| CN117116381A (en) * | 2023-09-08 | 2023-11-24 | 重庆市生态环境科学研究院 | Method for comprehensively analyzing contribution of fine particulate matter source based on receptor and chemical transmission model |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN117059198A (en) * | 2023-06-29 | 2023-11-14 | 华南理工大学 | Emission list feedback updating method, system and equipment based on response surface model |
| CN117059198B (en) * | 2023-06-29 | 2024-02-23 | 华南理工大学 | Emission list feedback updating method, system and equipment based on response surface model |
| CN117116381A (en) * | 2023-09-08 | 2023-11-24 | 重庆市生态环境科学研究院 | Method for comprehensively analyzing contribution of fine particulate matter source based on receptor and chemical transmission model |
| CN117116381B (en) * | 2023-09-08 | 2024-05-03 | 重庆市生态环境科学研究院 | Method for comprehensively analyzing contribution of fine particulate matter source based on receptor and chemical transmission model |
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