CN115619072A - Comprehensive benefit evaluation method and device for comprehensive energy network - Google Patents
Comprehensive benefit evaluation method and device for comprehensive energy network Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN115619072A CN115619072A CN202211122907.6A CN202211122907A CN115619072A CN 115619072 A CN115619072 A CN 115619072A CN 202211122907 A CN202211122907 A CN 202211122907A CN 115619072 A CN115619072 A CN 115619072A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- evaluation
- index
- comprehensive
- benefit
- final
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 405
- 230000008901 benefit Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 284
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 65
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 32
- 229910052799 carbon Inorganic materials 0.000 claims description 110
- OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon Chemical compound [C] OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 88
- 238000003860 storage Methods 0.000 claims description 70
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 62
- 230000009467 reduction Effects 0.000 claims description 37
- 230000005540 biological transmission Effects 0.000 claims description 34
- 238000009826 distribution Methods 0.000 claims description 30
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 claims description 30
- 239000011159 matrix material Substances 0.000 claims description 29
- 238000010248 power generation Methods 0.000 claims description 23
- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 claims description 21
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 claims description 21
- 238000004146 energy storage Methods 0.000 claims description 16
- 230000006872 improvement Effects 0.000 claims description 14
- 238000012946 outsourcing Methods 0.000 claims description 13
- 238000011084 recovery Methods 0.000 claims description 13
- 238000004140 cleaning Methods 0.000 claims description 12
- 238000004590 computer program Methods 0.000 claims description 12
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 claims description 12
- 238000012937 correction Methods 0.000 claims description 12
- 238000007599 discharging Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000004134 energy conservation Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 230000004907 flux Effects 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000009434 installation Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000013210 evaluation model Methods 0.000 abstract description 9
- 230000007812 deficiency Effects 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 15
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 10
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 9
- 230000006870 function Effects 0.000 description 5
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 description 5
- UFHFLCQGNIYNRP-UHFFFAOYSA-N Hydrogen Chemical compound [H][H] UFHFLCQGNIYNRP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 4
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 description 4
- 229910052739 hydrogen Inorganic materials 0.000 description 4
- 239000001257 hydrogen Substances 0.000 description 4
- 230000007547 defect Effects 0.000 description 3
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 3
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 230000000052 comparative effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000007726 management method Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000007246 mechanism Effects 0.000 description 2
- 230000003334 potential effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000004445 quantitative analysis Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000003068 static effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000007596 consolidation process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000002349 favourable effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000011835 investigation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000003287 optical effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000002093 peripheral effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000011002 quantification Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000013139 quantization Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000005855 radiation Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000009897 systematic effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000009466 transformation Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000007306 turnover Effects 0.000 description 1
- 239000002699 waste material Substances 0.000 description 1
Images
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0637—Strategic management or analysis, e.g. setting a goal or target of an organisation; Planning actions based on goals; Analysis or evaluation of effectiveness of goals
- G06Q10/06375—Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- Educational Administration (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Public Health (AREA)
- Water Supply & Treatment (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Supply And Distribution Of Alternating Current (AREA)
Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of comprehensive energy network benefit evaluation, and particularly provides a comprehensive energy network benefit evaluation method and device, which comprise the following steps: acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system; determining a comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index, wherein the comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network is a comprehensive benefit evaluation result of the comprehensive energy network; and obtaining the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system based on an analytic hierarchy process. The technical scheme of the invention improves the applicability of the evaluation model and the overall benefit evaluation capability of the evaluation model, makes up the deficiency that the prior art only carries out benefit evaluation from the aspects of conventional evaluation such as economic benefit, technical benefit and the like, and improves the accuracy of the evaluation model.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of comprehensive energy network benefit evaluation, in particular to a comprehensive energy network benefit evaluation method and device.
Background
In recent years, the development of a power grid is accelerated, technical innovation is increased, energy power is promoted to be changed from high carbon to low carbon and from fossil energy to clean energy, green production and consumption modes are accelerated to be formed, and assisted ecological civilization construction and sustainable development become main development concepts in the energy field;
cost and income research of the comprehensive energy network is a research hotspot all the time, and currently, a plurality of scholars establish a comprehensive energy network cost and income model meeting various decision constraint requirements of different energy subsystems, different market subjects, different time scales and the like according to actual conditions. The economic research on the comprehensive energy network mainly focuses on the following two aspects: firstly, researching the dominance of the comprehensive energy network, and establishing respective economic models according to the operation modes and characteristics of different principals; and secondly, researching an overall economic accounting model and a cost and income allocation mechanism of the comprehensive energy network. Cost allocation and benefit balance analysis are important research contents of the comprehensive energy network, but cost allocation and benefit management system research is still in a starting stage. The traditional evaluation system can not be applied to complex comprehensive energy networks and can not meet the current increasingly severe energy crisis situation.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects, the invention provides a comprehensive benefit evaluation method and a comprehensive benefit evaluation device for a comprehensive energy network.
In a first aspect, a comprehensive benefit evaluation method for an integrated energy network is provided, where the comprehensive benefit evaluation method for the integrated energy network includes:
acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system;
determining a comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index, wherein the comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network is a comprehensive benefit evaluation result of the comprehensive energy network;
and obtaining the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system based on an analytic hierarchy process.
Preferably, the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network is a secondary state evaluation system, and the primary index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: economic benefit index, social benefit index, environmental benefit index, operational benefit index, technical benefit index, low carbon benefit index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the economic benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: internal financial rate of return, net present value of financial affairs, return on investment, net profit rate of capital fund, capability index of project liquidation debt, capability index of project operation;
the final-stage index corresponding to the social benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following: the GDP number is increased, the employment position number and the satisfaction degree are provided;
the final-stage index corresponding to the environmental benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: ecological improvement rate, energy conservation and emission reduction, regional resource planning and application rate and energy structure improvement amount;
the final-stage index corresponding to the operation benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: aid benefit ability, comprehensive network loss rate and equipment service life;
the final-stage index corresponding to the technical benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: equipment technical reliability, equipment installation form, local meteorological conditions, local natural resources;
the final-stage index corresponding to the low-carbon benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: carbon cost, carbon emission reduction.
Further, the internal financial rate of return FIRR is calculated as follows:
FIRR＝i 1 +FNPV 1 (i 2 -i 1 )/(FNPV 1 -|FNPV 2 |)
the calculation formula of the financial net present value FNPV is as follows:
the investment recovery period T p Is calculated as follows:
the calculation formula of the net profit margin ROE of the capital fund is as follows:
the calculation formula of the project liquidation debt capability index is as follows:
the calculation formula of the project operation capacity index is as follows:
in the above formula, i 1 Financial benchmark profitability, i, as disclosed for the industry 2 For a predetermined financial benchmark rate of return, FNPV 1 Financial net present value, FNPV, corresponding to financial benchmark profitability published for industry 2 The net present value of financial affairs corresponding to the preset financial benchmark yield, CI is the amount of cash flowing in, CO is the amount of cash flowing out, x belongs to [0, n ]]To be i 0 For the basic discount rate of the industry, n is the total number of evaluation periods, (CI-CO) x The cash inflow for the x-th evaluation period.
Further, the carbon cost C ehs Is calculated as follows:
C ehs ＝E D η t T-E MG η T P
the carbon reduction
Is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, E D CO generated from system initial construction to system service life of electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system 2 Discharge amount, eta t The collection proportion coefficient of carbon tax, T is the tax amount required under the unit carbon emission, E MG CO for the full life cycle of an integrated energy system 2 Emissions and CO from electricity purchase from the grid when there is insufficient capacity 2 Sum of discharge amount eta T Is CO 2 The discharge amount accounts for the total discharge amount, P is the carbon trading price,
carbon emissions, W, for each degree of electricity generated by a primary energy plant f Is the total generated energy of the life cycle of the comprehensive energy system,
the actual CO2 emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is obtained.
Further, the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system generates CO from system initial construction to system service life 2 The emission is calculated as follows:
E D ＝E WT +E PV +E FC +E DE +E SB
CO of the comprehensive energy system in the whole life cycle 2 Emission and CO from grid purchase when self-power generation is insufficient 2 The calculation formula of the sum of the discharge amount is as follows:
E MG ＝E D +E N
the calculation formula of the actual CO2 emission reduction of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is as follows:
in the above formula, E WT For CO generated in the process of wind power electricity 2 Discharge amount, E PV CO produced for photovoltaic power generation processes 2 Discharge amount, E FC For CO generated in the manufacturing process of new energy equipment 2 Discharge amount, E DE CO generated for power generation of energy storage devices 2 Discharge amount, E SB CO produced for energy storage device manufacture 2 Discharge amount, E N CO for purchasing electricity from the grid 2 The amount of the discharged water is reduced,
is the actual carbon emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system,
for outsourcing electric power CO 2 And (4) discharging the amount.
Further, the calculation formula of the actual carbon emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is as follows:
the outsourcing power CO 2 The emission is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, P c,t For the output power of the c cleaning appliance at time tΔ t is the duration of the scheduling period,
for CO in the manufacturing process of the c cleaning apparatus 2 Emission, B is the number of clean energy equipment, M is the number of scheduling period time segments, N is the total number of the integrated energy system, P e,b,i,t For the purchased electric power of the ith integrated energy system at the time t,
is a carbon emission factor, x, of the unit of purchased electricity c Is the carbon coefficient of the c-th device.
Further, the calculation formula of the aid benefit ability is as follows:
the calculation formula of the comprehensive network loss rate is as follows:
in the above formula, C i,p The cost caused by the active power fluctuation of the node i, and the delta p is the active power fluctuation value of the node i, C i,q The cost caused by the reactive power fluctuation of the node i, the delta q is the reactive power fluctuation value of the node i, T is the number of the time segments of the dispatching cycle, the delta T is the time length of the dispatching time segment, and delta t For loss correction factor, Δ P A For the active loss, delta P, of the transmission and distribution line B The power loss is synthesized for the power transmission and distribution transformer.
Further, the calculation formula of the active loss of the power transmission and distribution line is as follows:
△P A ＝3(I a k) 2 (2R 20 +a(dc-20)*R 20 )
the calculation formula of the comprehensive power loss of the power transmission and distribution transformer is as follows:
△P B ＝PQ 0 +P k β 2 (P i +K q Q i )
in the above formula, I a Is the average current over time t, k is the correction factor, R 20 A is the base resistance, a is the temperature coefficient of the wire, dc is the average ambient temperature at which the transmission line is located, PQ 0 For no-load losses, P k Is the load ripple loss coefficient, beta is the average load coefficient, P i For rated load loss, K q For a reactive economic equivalent, Q i The leakage flux power is rated load.
Further, the determining a comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the integrated energy grid based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index includes:
determining the number of times that the index value of each final-stage evaluation index belongs to each evaluation grade by adopting an expert evaluation method based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index;
determining the probability that each final-stage evaluation index belongs to x preset evaluation levels according to the number of times that the index value of each final-stage evaluation index belongs to each evaluation level;
based on the probability that each final-stage evaluation index belongs to x preset evaluation levels, a fuzzy evaluation matrix is constructed
Wherein, F i For the ith row element, F, in the fuzzy evaluation matrix i ＝[f i1 ,f i2 ,…f ij …,f ix ]，i∈[1,N]N is the total number of final evaluation indicators, f ij For the probability that the i-th final index belongs to the j-th evaluation level, j ∈ [1, x ]]；
Calculating a fuzzy evaluation vector based on the fuzzy evaluation matrix and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index;
and calculating a comprehensive evaluation value of the comprehensive energy system based on the fuzzy evaluation vector and the score corresponding to each evaluation level in the preset x evaluation levels.
Further, the probability f that the i-th final-stage indicator belongs to the j-th evaluation level ij Is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, p ij The number of times that the index value of the i-th final-stage index belongs to the j-th evaluation level, and P is the total number of people in the evaluation subject.
Further, the fuzzy evaluation vector is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, w i Is the weight coefficient of the i-th final evaluation index.
Further, the calculation formula of the comprehensive evaluation value of the comprehensive energy system is as follows:
M＝LV
in the above formula, L is a fuzzy evaluation vector, and V is a preset score vector corresponding to preset x evaluation levels.
In a second aspect, an integrated energy grid comprehensive benefit evaluation device is provided, which includes:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system;
the determining module is used for determining a comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index, and the comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network is a comprehensive benefit evaluation result of the comprehensive energy network;
and obtaining the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system based on an analytic hierarchy process.
Preferably, the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network is a secondary state evaluation system, and the primary index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: economic benefit index, social benefit index, environmental benefit index, operational benefit index, technical benefit index, low-carbon benefit index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the economic benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: internal financial rate of return, net present value of financial affairs, return on investment, net profit rate of capital fund, capability index of project liquidation debt, capability index of project operation;
the final-stage index corresponding to the social benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following: the GDP number is increased, the employment position number and the satisfaction degree are provided;
the final-stage index corresponding to the environmental benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: ecological improvement rate, energy conservation and emission reduction, regional resource planning and application rate and energy structure improvement amount;
the final-stage index corresponding to the operation benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: the benefit capacity of the building, the comprehensive network loss rate and the service life of equipment are increased;
the final-stage index corresponding to the technical benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: equipment technical reliability, equipment installation form, local meteorological conditions, local natural resources;
the final-stage index corresponding to the low-carbon benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: carbon cost, carbon emission reduction.
Further, the internal financial rate of return FIRR is calculated as follows:
FIRR＝i 1 +FNPV 1 (i 2 -i 1 )/(FNPV 1 -|FNPV 2 |)
the calculation formula of the financial net present value FNPV is as follows:
the investment recovery period T p Is calculated as follows:
the calculation formula of the net profit margin ROE of the capital fund is as follows:
the calculation formula of the project liquidation debt capability index is as follows:
the calculation formula of the project operation capacity index is as follows:
in the above formula, i 1 Financial benchmark profitability, i, published for the industry 2 For a predetermined financial benchmark rate of return, FNPV 1 Financial net present value, FNPV, corresponding to financial benchmark profitability published for industry 2 The net present value of financial affairs corresponding to the preset financial benchmark yield, CI is the amount of cash flowing in, CO is the amount of cash flowing out, x belongs to [0, n ]]To be i 0 For the basic discount rate of the industry, n is the total number of evaluation periods, (CI-CO) x The cash inflow for the x-th evaluation period.
Further, the carbon cost C ehs Is calculated as follows:
C ehs ＝E D η t T-E MG η T P
the carbon reduction
Is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, E D CO generated from system initial construction to system service life of electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system 2 Discharge amount, eta t The collection proportion coefficient of carbon tax, T is the tax amount required under the unit carbon emission, E MG CO for the full life cycle of an integrated energy system 2 Emissions and CO from electricity purchase from the grid when there is insufficient capacity 2 Sum of discharge amount eta T Is CO 2 The discharge amount accounts for the total discharge amount, P is the carbon trading price,
carbon emissions per degree of electricity generated in primary energy plants, W f Is the total power generation capacity of the life cycle of the comprehensive energy system,
the actual CO2 emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is obtained.
Further, the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system generates CO from system initial construction to system service life 2 The emission is calculated as follows:
E D ＝E WT +E PV +E FC +E DE +E SB
CO of the whole life cycle of the integrated energy system 2 Emission and CO from grid purchase when self-power generation is insufficient 2 The calculation formula of the sum of the discharge amount is as follows:
E MG ＝E D +E N
the calculation formula of the actual CO2 emission reduction of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is as follows:
in the above formula, E WT For CO generated in the process of wind power electricity 2 Discharge amount, E PV CO produced for photovoltaic power generation processes 2 Discharge amount, E FC For CO generated in the process of manufacturing new energy equipment 2 Discharge amount, E DE CO generated for power generation of energy storage devices 2 Discharge amount, E SB CO produced for energy storage device manufacture 2 Discharge amount, E N CO for purchasing electricity from the grid 2 The amount of the discharged water is reduced,
the actual carbon emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system,
for outsourcing of power CO 2 And (4) discharging the amount.
Further, the calculation formula of the actual carbon emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is as follows:
the outsourcing power CO 2 The emission is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, P c,t The output power of the c-th cleaning device at time t, Δ t the duration of the scheduling period,
for CO in the manufacturing process of the c cleaning apparatus 2 Emission, B is the number of clean energy equipment, M is the number of scheduling period time segments, N is the total number of the integrated energy system, P e,b,i,t For the purchased electric power of the ith integrated energy system at the time t,
is a carbon emission factor, x, of the unit of purchased electricity c The carbon coefficient of the c-th device.
Further, the calculation formula of the aid benefit ability is as follows:
the calculation formula of the comprehensive network loss rate is as follows:
in the above formula, C i,p The cost caused by the active power fluctuation of the node i, and the delta p is the active power fluctuation value of the node i, C i,q The cost caused by the reactive power fluctuation of the node i, the delta q is the reactive power fluctuation value of the node i, T is the number of the time segments of the dispatching cycle, the delta T is the time length of the dispatching time segment, and delta t For loss correction factor, Δ P A For active power loss, delta P, of power transmission and distribution lines B The power loss is synthesized for the power transmission and distribution transformer.
Further, the calculation formula of the active loss of the power transmission and distribution line is as follows:
△P A ＝3(I a k) 2 (2R 20 +a(dc-20)*R 20 )
the calculation formula of the comprehensive power loss of the power transmission and distribution transformer is as follows:
△P B ＝PQ 0 +P k β 2 (P i +K q Q i )
in the above formula, I a Is the average current over time t, k is the correction factor, R 20 Is the basic resistance, a is the temperature coefficient of the wire, dc is the average ambient temperature of the transmission line, PQ 0 For no-load losses, P k Is the load ripple loss coefficient, beta is the average load coefficient, P i For rated load loss, K q Is a reactive economic equivalent，Q i The leakage flux power is rated load.
Preferably, the determining a comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy grid based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index includes:
determining the times of the index values of the evaluation indexes of the last stages belonging to the evaluation levels by adopting an expert evaluation method based on the index values of the evaluation indexes of the last stages;
determining the probability of each final-stage evaluation index belonging to x preset evaluation stages according to the number of times that the index value of each final-stage evaluation index belongs to each evaluation stage;
based on the probability that each final-stage evaluation index belongs to x preset evaluation levels, a fuzzy evaluation matrix is constructed
Wherein, F i For the ith row element, F, in the fuzzy evaluation matrix i ＝[f i1 ,f i2 ,…f ij …,f ix ]，i∈[1,N]N is the total number of final evaluation indicators, f ij For the probability that the ith final index belongs to the jth evaluation level, j ∈ [1,x ]]；
Calculating a fuzzy evaluation vector based on a fuzzy evaluation matrix and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index;
and calculating a comprehensive evaluation value of the comprehensive energy system based on the fuzzy evaluation vector and the score corresponding to each evaluation level in the preset x evaluation levels.
Furthermore, the probability f of the ith final indicator belonging to the jth evaluation level ij Is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, p ij The number of times that the index value of the i-th final-stage index belongs to the j-th evaluation level, and P is the total number of people in the evaluation subject.
Further, the fuzzy evaluation vector is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, w i Is the weight coefficient of the i-th final evaluation index.
Further, the calculation formula of the comprehensive evaluation value of the comprehensive energy system is as follows:
M＝LV
in the above formula, L is a fuzzy evaluation vector, and V is a preset score vector corresponding to preset x evaluation levels.
In a third aspect, a computer device is provided, comprising: one or more processors;
the processor to store one or more programs;
when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the method for evaluating the comprehensive benefits of the integrated energy grid is implemented.
In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed, the method for evaluating the comprehensive benefits of the integrated energy grid is implemented.
One or more technical schemes of the invention at least have one or more of the following beneficial effects:
the invention provides a comprehensive benefit evaluation method and a comprehensive benefit evaluation device for a comprehensive energy network, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system; determining a comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network based on the index values of the evaluation indexes of the last stages and the weight coefficients of the evaluation indexes of the last stages, wherein the comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network is a comprehensive benefit evaluation result of the comprehensive energy network; and obtaining the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system based on an analytic hierarchy process. The technical scheme of the invention improves the applicability and the overall benefit evaluation capability of the evaluation model, makes up the defect that the prior art only carries out benefit evaluation in the aspects of conventional evaluation such as economic benefit, technical benefit and the like, and improves the accuracy of the evaluation model;
specifically, the comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network provided by the technical scheme of the invention follows the objective law of development of the hydrogen energy storage system, the wind power plant and the photovoltaic station, and can reasonably and comprehensively evaluate the application of the hydrogen energy storage system in the wind power plant and the photovoltaic station. Meanwhile, the selected index is representative, and the electricity-hydrogen-storage comprehensive energy system can be accurately evaluated.
The comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network provided by the technical scheme of the invention selects evaluation indexes from a global perspective according to the self characteristics of the electricity-hydrogen-storage comprehensive energy system, and strives to cover the whole area. The independence is that when the indexes are selected, the relevance between the indexes in the same layer is small, the relevance between the indexes is reduced as much as possible, and the condition of index intersection is avoided.
The comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system provided by the technical scheme of the invention can reflect the common attributes of different evaluation objects, the data of different dimensions can be unified through a specific method, transverse comparability and longitudinal comparability are achieved as much as possible, calculation and comparison with historical data or data of the same industry are facilitated, and classification, metering methods and calibers of evaluation indexes selected by the comparability and flexibility requirements are unified and comparable with each other.
The comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network provided by the technical scheme of the invention is constructed from index combing, index selecting to an index system, and the basic principle of qualitative and quantitative combination is considered. Quantitative analysis is taken as the main point, qualitative indexes are considered, and the comprehensiveness and systematicness of an index system are ensured. The method needs systematic consolidation of representative qualitative indexes to reflect the comprehensive benefit level, and can not directly reflect the comprehensive benefit level, and simultaneously relates to the potential effects of technical benefits, environmental benefits, social benefits and the like. The evaluation model index selection process is briefly described by taking low-carbon benefits and operation benefits as examples.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the main steps of the comprehensive benefit evaluation method of the comprehensive energy network according to the embodiment of the invention;
fig. 2 is a main structural block diagram of the comprehensive benefit evaluation device of the comprehensive energy grid according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following describes embodiments of the present invention in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without making any creative effort based on the embodiments in the present invention, belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
As disclosed in the background art, in recent years, the development of a power grid is accelerated, technical innovation is increased, energy power is promoted to be changed from high carbon to low carbon and from fossil energy to clean energy, green production and consumption modes are accelerated, and ecological civilization construction and sustainable development are assisted to become a main development concept in the energy field;
cost and income research of the comprehensive energy network is a research hotspot all the time, and currently, a plurality of scholars establish a comprehensive energy network cost and income model meeting various decision constraint requirements of different energy subsystems, different market subjects, different time scales and the like according to actual conditions. The economic research on the comprehensive energy network mainly focuses on the following two aspects: firstly, researching the dominance of the comprehensive energy network, and establishing respective economic models according to the operation modes and characteristics of different principals; and secondly, researching an overall economic accounting model and a cost and benefit allocation mechanism of the comprehensive energy network. Cost allocation and benefit balance analysis are important research contents of the comprehensive energy network, but cost allocation and benefit management system research is still in a starting stage. The traditional evaluation system can not be applied to complex comprehensive energy networks and can not meet the current increasingly severe energy crisis situation.
In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides a method and a device for evaluating comprehensive benefits of an integrated energy grid, comprising: acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system; determining a comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network based on the index value of each final evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final evaluation index, wherein the comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network is a comprehensive benefit evaluation result of the comprehensive energy network; and obtaining the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system based on an analytic hierarchy process. The technical scheme of the invention improves the applicability and the overall benefit evaluation capability of the evaluation model, makes up the defect that the prior art only carries out benefit evaluation in the aspects of conventional evaluation such as economic benefit, technical benefit and the like, and improves the accuracy of the evaluation model;
specifically, the comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network provided by the technical scheme of the invention follows the objective law of development of the hydrogen energy storage system, the wind power plant and the photovoltaic station, and can reasonably and comprehensively evaluate the application of the hydrogen energy storage system in the wind power plant and the photovoltaic station. Meanwhile, the selected index is representative, and the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system can be accurately evaluated.
The comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network provided by the technical scheme of the invention selects evaluation indexes from a global perspective according to the self characteristics of the electricity-hydrogen-storage comprehensive energy system, and strives to cover the whole area. The independence is that when the indexes are selected, the relevance between the indexes in the same layer is small, the relevance between the indexes is reduced as much as possible, and the condition of index intersection is avoided.
The comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system provided by the technical scheme of the invention can reflect the common attributes of different evaluation objects, data of different dimensions can be unified through a specific method, transverse comparability and longitudinal comparability are achieved as much as possible, calculation and comparison with historical data or data of the same industry are facilitated, and classification, metering methods and calibers of evaluation indexes selected by the comparability and flexibility requirements are unified and comparable with each other.
The comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network provided by the technical scheme of the invention is constructed from index combing, index selection to an index system, and the basic principle of qualitative and quantitative combination is considered. Quantitative analysis is taken as the main point, qualitative indexes are considered, and the comprehensiveness and systematicness of an index system are ensured. The method needs to systematically refine representative qualitative indexes to reflect the comprehensive benefit level, wherein the representative indexes can be quantified, and the potential effects such as technical benefits, environmental benefits, social benefits and the like which cannot be directly measured are required to be intuitively excavated to visually reflect the comprehensive benefit level. The evaluation model index selection process is briefly described by taking low-carbon benefits and operation benefits as examples. The above scheme is explained in detail below.
Example 1
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a flow chart illustrating main steps of a comprehensive benefit evaluation method of an integrated energy grid according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 1, the comprehensive benefit evaluation method of the comprehensive energy grid in the embodiment of the present invention mainly includes the following steps:
step S101: acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system;
step S102: determining a comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index, wherein the comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network is a comprehensive benefit evaluation result of the comprehensive energy network;
and obtaining the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system based on an analytic hierarchy process.
The pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network is a secondary state evaluation system, and primary indexes in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprise at least one of the following indexes: economic benefit index, social benefit index, environmental benefit index, operational benefit index, technical benefit index and low-carbon benefit index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the economic benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: internal financial earning rate, financial net present value, investment recovery period, capital fund net profit rate, project liquidation and debt capability index and project operation capability index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the social benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following: the GDP number is increased, the employment position number and the satisfaction degree are provided;
the final-stage index corresponding to the environmental benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: ecological improvement rate, energy conservation and emission reduction, regional resource planning and application rate and energy structure improvement amount;
the final-stage index corresponding to the operation benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: aid benefit ability, comprehensive network loss rate and equipment service life;
the final-stage index corresponding to the technical benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: equipment technical reliability, equipment installation form, local meteorological conditions, local natural resources;
the final-stage index corresponding to the low-carbon benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: carbon cost, carbon emission reduction.
On the premise of some basic theories of operability analysis and project evaluation of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system, the double-carbon target is combined, and the economic benefit index selection of low carbon emission reduction and the general economic benefit index have certain difference in content and meaning. The factors such as the income status, the operation result, the cash flow rate, etc. of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system may be affected by the low carbon economy. Therefore, low-carbon economy is combined, and the indexes are selected mainly from three points of profitability, repayment ability and operation ability of the system. The profitability is an important index for whether the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system can be built or not, and the profitability determines the income level of the project and is the most important point for investors. The debt paying capability of the electricity-hydrogen-storage comprehensive energy system refers to the capability of paying the debt for the benefit created in the assets and the operation process, and embodies the return ratio of the project to investors, and the good debt paying capability is favorable for the smooth development of the project. The project operation capacity is the capacity of creating valuable wealth to the maximum extent, creating higher income in the shortest time and reflecting better project operation capacity.
The selection of the indexes of the project is divided into static indexes and dynamic indexes, the static indexes cannot comprehensively and completely reflect the long-time economic value of the project, and the time value of the capital is not well considered. And the dynamic index can just make up for the deficiency. Therefore, the economic effect evaluation is carried out on the project by selecting the dynamic indexes.
Specifically, the internal financial rate of return FIRR is the profitability of the whole project before income tax before an undetermined project plan is examined, and is convenient to refer to when the project plan is compared. However, the interest rates of the project schemes are different, the income tax rate and the preferential policy of enjoyment may also be different, and the interest expenditure and the income tax are neglected when the financial internal income rate of the project is calculated, so that the comparability of the project schemes is maintained. The internal financial rate of return, FIRR, is calculated as follows:
FIRR＝i 1 +FNPV 1 (i 2 -i 1 )/(FNPV 1 -|FNPV 2 |)
the financial net present value is an important index for evaluating the overall profitability of the project, and reflects the value of the excess profit obtained by the project beyond the profit meeting the discount rate requirement specified by the industry. The calculation formula of the financial net present value FNPV is as follows:
and when the financial net present value FNPV is more than or equal to 0, the profitability of the project reaches or exceeds the profitability calculated according to the set discount rate, and the project is feasible.
Project investment recovery periodMay be calculated using a cash flow table for the project investment. If the investment recovery period of the project is shorter, the profitability and the risk resistance of the project are better. The judgment standard of the investment recovery period is a reference investment recovery period, the value can be specified according to the industry level or the requirement of an investor, and the investment recovery period T p Is calculated as follows:
the project fund net profit margin ROE represents the profit level of the project fund. The net profit rate of the project fund is higher than the reference value of the net profit rate of the same industry, which shows that the profit capacity expressed by the net profit rate of the project fund meets the requirement. The higher the ROE, the higher the profitability of the project, and the worth of investment in the project. The calculation formula of the net profit margin ROE of the capital fund is as follows:
the project liquidity indicator is the ratio of mobile assets to mobile liabilities and indicates how many mobile assets per mobile liabilities the investor has as a payback guarantee, reflecting the ability of the mobile assets converted to cash in a short time to pay back to the mobile liabilities due. The calculation formula of the project settlement debt capability index is as follows:
generally, the higher the project liquidation/debt capability index is, the stronger the short-term debt capability of the enterprise is. The project liquidation debt ability index is more appropriate when 100% -200%. The project liquidation debt capacity index is too low, indicating that the enterprise may have difficulty paying the debt on schedule. The high performance index of the project liquidation debt can directly influence the project income.
The project operation capacity index is the ratio of business income of an enterprise in a certain period to the average fixed asset net value, the fixed asset utilization efficiency is measured, and the higher the turnover rate is, the stronger the risk resistance of the project is. The calculation formula of the project operation capacity index is as follows:
in the above formula, i 1 Financial benchmark profitability, i, as disclosed for the industry 2 For a predetermined financial benchmark rate of return, FNPV 1 Financial net present value, FNPV, corresponding to financial benchmark profitability published for industry 2 The net present value of financial affairs corresponding to the preset financial benchmark yield, CI is the amount of cash flowing in, CO is the amount of cash flowing out, x belongs to [0, n ]]To be i 0 For the basic discount rate of the industry, n is the total number of evaluation periods, (CI-CO) x The cash inflow for the x-th evaluation period. When FIRR is ≧ i 1 、i 2 And when the project is finished, the profitability of the project is considered to meet the requirement.
The development of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy network has a non-trivial pulling effect on the improvement of the welfare of people and the economic development. With the development of the electricity-hydrogen-storage comprehensive energy network, large-scale trial investment is carried out and related excellence and benefit policies are carried out, which can drive the rapid development of local economy. The method is greatly developed and is beneficial to the improvement of road traffic power grid facilities.
At present, the development of the integrated energy network industry is gradually increased, and the energy structure is influenced by the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy network. The development of the comprehensive energy grid is enhanced, the traditional power grid structure can be optimized, the power supply condition of the area is improved, and the proportion of green new energy relative to the traditional power grid is further increased.
The environmental benefit index brings good environmental transformation to the area. The operation of the electricity-hydrogen-storage comprehensive energy network has obvious effect on improving the environment. However, in construction, various factors such as pollution waste generated by devices such as energy network components, radiation influence of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy network on the peripheral environment, and the like are included in the environmental benefit evaluation indexes.
The concept of low carbon benefit index is further accepted by the public, the power system is used as a carbon emission household, the carbon emission is reduced, and the low carbon benefit of the electricity-hydrogen-storage comprehensive energy system is comprehensively evaluated according to the carbon cost and the carbon emission. The carbon cost C ehs Is calculated as follows:
C ehs ＝E D η t T-E MG η T P
the carbon reduction
Is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, E D CO generated from system initial construction to system service life of electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system 2 Discharge amount, eta t The collection proportion coefficient of carbon tax, T is the tax amount required under the unit carbon emission, E MG CO for full life cycle of integrated energy system 2 Emission and CO from grid purchase when self-power generation is insufficient 2 Sum of discharge amount eta T Is CO 2 The discharge amount accounts for the total discharge amount, P is the carbon trading price,
carbon emissions, W, for each degree of electricity generated by a primary energy plant f Is the total power generation capacity of the life cycle of the comprehensive energy system,
the actual CO2 emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is obtained.
Wherein the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system generates CO from system initial construction to system life 2 The emission amount is calculated as follows:
E D ＝E WT +E PV +E FC +E DE +E SB
CO of the comprehensive energy system in the whole life cycle 2 Emissions and CO from electricity purchase from the grid when there is insufficient capacity 2 The sum of emissions is calculated as follows:
E MG ＝E D +E N
the calculation formula of the actual CO2 emission reduction of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is as follows:
in the above formula, E WT For CO generated in the process of wind power electricity 2 Discharge amount, E PV CO produced for photovoltaic power generation processes 2 Discharge amount, E FC For CO generated in the manufacturing process of new energy equipment 2 Discharge amount, E DE CO generated for power generation of energy storage device 2 Discharge amount, E SB CO produced for energy storage device manufacture 2 Discharge amount, E N CO for purchasing electricity from the grid 2 The amount of the discharged water is reduced,
the actual carbon emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system,
for outsourcing electric power CO 2 And (4) discharging the amount.
In one embodiment, the actual carbon emission reduction of the electric-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is calculated as follows:
the outsourcing power CO 2 The emission is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, P c,t The output power of the c-th cleaning device at time t, Δ t the duration of the scheduling period,
for CO in the manufacturing process of the c cleaning apparatus 2 Emission, B is the number of clean energy equipment, M is the number of scheduling period time segments, N is the total number of the integrated energy system, P e,b,i,t For the purchased electric power of the ith integrated energy system at the time t,
is a carbon emission factor, x, of the unit of purchased electricity c The carbon coefficient of the c-th device.
In one embodiment, after the energy system is connected to the grid, the power flow distribution of the power distribution network is changed, and then the grid loss is changed. The utility model discloses a power grid slow-building benefit can be expressed with active power unit cost and reactive power unit cost, if the two are negative values, indicate that this node leads to circuit, transformer transmission power to descend, reduced current equipment use intensity to the investment of power grid company to new equipment has been postponed, the calculation formula of benefit ability of building up is as follows:
due to technical level limitation and energy characteristics, certain loss exists in a power distribution network link when energy is transmitted, such as power loss existing on equipment such as lines and distribution transformers. Through a certain coordination means and operation control, the loss can be reduced as much as possible. The comprehensive line loss of the power transmission line consists of two parts, namely power transmission and distribution line loss and power transmission and distribution transformer loss, and the calculation formula of the comprehensive network loss rate is as follows:
in the above formula, C i,p Being a node iThe cost caused by active power fluctuation, where Δ p is the active power fluctuation value of node i, C i,q The cost caused by the reactive power fluctuation of the node i, the delta q is the reactive power fluctuation value of the node i, T is the number of the time segments of the dispatching cycle, the delta T is the time length of the dispatching time segment, and delta t For loss correction factor, Δ P A For the active loss, delta P, of the transmission and distribution line B The power loss is synthesized for the power transmission and distribution transformer.
In one embodiment, the power transmission and distribution line active loss is calculated as follows:
△P A ＝3(I a k) 2 (2R 20 +a(dc-20)*R 20 )
the calculation formula of the comprehensive power loss of the power transmission and distribution transformer is as follows:
△P B ＝PQ 0 +P k β 2 (P i +K q Q i )
in the above formula, I a Is the average current over time t, k is the correction factor, R 20 Is the basic resistance, a is the temperature coefficient of the wire, dc is the average ambient temperature of the transmission line, PQ 0 For no-load losses, P k Is the load ripple loss coefficient, beta is the average load coefficient, P i For rated load loss, K q For a reactive economic equivalent, Q i The leakage flux power is rated load.
By combining the characteristics of the electricity-hydrogen-storage comprehensive energy system, the project divides the evaluation system into low-carbon benefits, economic benefits, technical benefits, operation benefits, environmental protection benefits and social benefits, and further subdivides and constructs a complete system comprehensive benefit evaluation system in the six aspects. The system comprehensive benefit evaluation system is shown in table 1:
TABLE 1
In this embodiment, the weight determination method adopts an AHP analytic hierarchy process: the analytic hierarchy process utilizes the digital relative size information to calculate the weight; such a method is a subjective value-assigning method, and usually requires a scoring by an expert or a questionnaire investigation to obtain the scoring condition of the importance of each index, and the higher the score is, the higher the index weight is. The method is suitable for various fields. Determining evaluation index weight based on AHP analytic hierarchy process:
and (4) listing a judgment matrix of a target layer and an index layer according to the comparison quantization value specification among indexes in the table 1. The comparative quantification between the indicators is specified in table 2:
TABLE 2
The consistency degree of the matrix is checked by judging the characteristic root change of the matrix, and the consistency degree can be specifically written as follows:
in the formula: n is the total number of evaluation indexes; a is ij Representing elements in a decision matrix;
the relative weight of the ith evaluation index under a single criterion; w is a group of i The absolute weight of the ith evaluation index under a single criterion; lambda max Judging the maximum characteristic root of the matrix; (CW) i An ith element representing a product between the judgment matrix C and an absolute weight vector W of an evaluation index under a single criterion; CI is a consistency index; RI represents the average random consistency index of the same order and is obtained by table lookup; CR represents a random consistency ratio. If the calculated CR is not satisfied
The structured decision matrix C needs to be adjusted until the absolute weight of each final evaluation index under a single criterion is output after the absolute weight is satisfied, i.e., the first weight coefficient of each final evaluation index.
For RI, it is generally a random average consistency index
When the judgment matrix passes the consistency check, the constructed judgment matrix passes the consistency check;
the method adopts an AHP analytic hierarchy process, combines the characteristics of an electricity-hydrogen-storage comprehensive energy system, subdivides comprehensive benefits into low-carbon benefits, economic benefits, technical benefits, operational benefits, environmental protection benefits and social benefits, and establishes an index system from the six aspects. And (5) inviting the expert to score each scheme layer index, and performing top-down hierarchical analysis on a plurality of attributes contained in the evaluation object. And establishing a contrast matrix and judging the importance degree of each index to the project. The comparative scores of the individual features for the project are assessed using expert scoring. The comprehensive benefit evaluation index system weights are shown in table 3:
TABLE 3
Taking economic benefit as an example, establishing a comparison matrix, and determining the ratio of importance degrees between every two indexes according to an expert evaluation method, wherein the weight of the secondary indexes is shown in a table 4;
TABLE 4
The results of the consistency check are shown in table 5:
TABLE 5
The index weight calculation of low carbon benefits, technical benefits, operational benefits, environmental protection benefits and social benefits is the same as the step of calculating the index weight of economic benefits.
The characteristics of the electricity-hydrogen-storage comprehensive energy system are combined, comprehensive benefits are subdivided into low-carbon benefits, economic benefits, technical benefits, operation benefits, environmental protection benefits and social benefits, and an index system is established on the six aspects. The overall benefit evaluation index system weights are shown in table 6:
TABLE 6
In one embodiment, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is selected to perform comprehensive benefit evaluation on the electricity-hydrogen-storage comprehensive energy system, and after an evaluation index system is established and evaluation index weight is determined, an evaluation set is required to be established: v = { V = 1 ,v 2 ,v 3 ,v 4 ,v 5 Preferably, the step of determining a total utility evaluation value of the energy grid based on the index value of each final evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final evaluation index includes:
determining the number of times that the index value of each final-stage evaluation index belongs to each evaluation grade by adopting an expert evaluation method based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index;
determining the probability that each final-stage evaluation index belongs to x preset evaluation levels according to the number of times that the index value of each final-stage evaluation index belongs to each evaluation level;
based on the probability that each final-stage evaluation index belongs to x preset evaluation levels, a fuzzy evaluation matrix is constructed
Wherein, F i For the ith row element, F, in the fuzzy evaluation matrix i ＝[f i1 ,f i2 ,…f ij …,f ix ]，i∈[1,N]N is the total number of final evaluation indicators, f ij For the probability that the ith final index belongs to the jth evaluation level, j ∈ [1,x ]]；
Calculating a fuzzy evaluation vector based on the fuzzy evaluation matrix and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index;
and calculating a comprehensive evaluation value of the comprehensive energy system based on the fuzzy evaluation vector and the score corresponding to each evaluation grade in the preset x evaluation grades.
Further, the probability f that the i-th final-stage indicator belongs to the j-th evaluation level ij Is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, p ij The number of times that the index value of the ith final-stage index belongs to the jth evaluation level, and P is the total number of people evaluating the subject.
Further, the fuzzy evaluation vector is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, w i Is the weight coefficient of the i-th final evaluation index.
Further, the calculation formula of the comprehensive evaluation value of the comprehensive energy system is as follows:
M＝LV
in the above formula, L is a fuzzy evaluation vector, and V is a predetermined score vector corresponding to the predetermined x evaluation levels.
Example 2
Based on the same inventive concept, the invention also provides a comprehensive benefit evaluation device of the comprehensive energy network, as shown in fig. 2, the comprehensive benefit evaluation device of the comprehensive energy network comprises:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system;
the determining module is used for determining a comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index, and the comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network is a comprehensive benefit evaluation result of the comprehensive energy network;
and obtaining the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system based on an analytic hierarchy process.
Preferably, the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network is a two-level state evaluation system, and the primary index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: economic benefit index, social benefit index, environmental benefit index, operational benefit index, technical benefit index, low-carbon benefit index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the economic benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: internal financial earning rate, financial net present value, investment recovery period, capital fund net profit rate, project liquidation and debt capability index and project operation capability index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the social benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following: the GDP number is increased, the employment position number and the satisfaction degree are provided;
the final-stage index corresponding to the environmental benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: ecological improvement rate, energy conservation and emission reduction, regional resource planning and application rate and energy structure improvement amount;
the final-stage index corresponding to the operation benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: the benefit capacity of the building, the comprehensive network loss rate and the service life of equipment are increased;
the final-stage index corresponding to the technical benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: equipment technical reliability, equipment installation form, local meteorological conditions, local natural resources;
the final-stage index corresponding to the low-carbon benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: carbon cost, carbon emission reduction.
Further, the internal financial rate of return FIRR is calculated as follows:
FIRR＝i 1 +FNPV 1 (i 2 -i 1 )/(FNPV 1 -|FNPV 2 |)
the calculation formula of the financial net present value FNPV is as follows:
the payback period of investment T p Is calculated as follows:
the calculation formula of the net profit margin ROE of the capital fund is as follows:
the calculation formula of the project liquidation debt capability index is as follows:
the calculation formula of the project operation capacity index is as follows:
in the above formula, i 1 Financial benchmark profitability, i, published for the industry 2 For a predetermined financial benchmark rate of return, FNPV 1 Financial net present value, FNPV, corresponding to financial benchmark profitability published for industry 2 The net present value of financial affairs corresponding to the preset financial benchmark yield, CI is the amount of cash flowing in, CO is the amount of cash flowing out, x belongs to [0, n ]]To be i 0 For the basic discount rate of the industry, n is the total number of evaluation periods, (CI-CO) x The cash inflow for the x-th evaluation period.
Further, the carbon cost C ehs Is calculated as follows:
C ehs ＝E D η t T-E MG η T P
the carbon reduction
Is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, E D For electricity-hydrogen-storage combined energyCO resulting from system setup to system life 2 Discharge amount, eta t The collection proportion coefficient of carbon tax, T is the tax amount required under the unit carbon emission, E MG CO for the full life cycle of an integrated energy system 2 Emissions and CO from electricity purchase from the grid when there is insufficient capacity 2 Sum of discharge amount eta T Is CO 2 The discharge amount accounts for the total discharge amount, P is the carbon trading price,
carbon emissions per degree of electricity generated in primary energy plants, W f Is the total power generation capacity of the life cycle of the comprehensive energy system,
the actual CO2 emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is obtained.
Further, the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system generates CO from system initial construction to system service life 2 The emission is calculated as follows:
E D ＝E WT +E PV +E FC +E DE +E SB
CO of the whole life cycle of the integrated energy system 2 Emission and CO from grid purchase when self-power generation is insufficient 2 The sum of emissions is calculated as follows:
E MG ＝E D +E N
the calculation formula of the actual CO2 emission reduction of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is as follows:
in the above formula, E WT For CO generated in the process of wind power electricity 2 Discharge amount, E PV CO produced for photovoltaic power generation processes 2 Discharge amount, E FC For CO generated in the process of manufacturing new energy equipment 2 Discharge amount, E DE CO generated for power generation of energy storage device 2 Discharge amount, E SB CO produced for energy storage device manufacture 2 Discharge amount, E N CO for purchasing electricity from the grid 2 The amount of the discharged water is increased,
is the actual carbon emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system,
for outsourcing of power CO 2 And (4) discharging the amount.
Further, the calculation formula of the actual carbon emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is as follows:
the outsourcing power CO 2 The emission is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, P c,t The output power of the c-th cleaning device at time t, Δ t is the duration of the scheduling period,
for CO in the manufacturing process of the c cleaning apparatus 2 Emission, B is the number of clean energy equipment, M is the number of scheduling period time segments, N is the total number of the integrated energy system, P e,b,i,t For the purchased electric power of the ith integrated energy system at the time t,
is a carbon emission factor, x, of the unit of purchased electricity c The carbon coefficient of the c-th device.
Further, the calculation formula of the aid benefit ability is as follows:
the calculation formula of the comprehensive network loss rate is as follows:
in the above formula, C i,p The cost caused by the active power fluctuation of the node i, and the delta p is the active power fluctuation value of the node i, C i,q The cost caused by the reactive power fluctuation of the node i, the delta q is the reactive power fluctuation value of the node i, T is the number of the time segments of the dispatching cycle, the delta T is the time length of the dispatching time segment, and delta t For loss correction factor, Δ P A For the active loss, delta P, of the transmission and distribution line B The power loss is synthesized for the power transmission and distribution transformer.
Further, the calculation formula of the active loss of the power transmission and distribution line is as follows:
△P A ＝3(I a k) 2 (2R 20 +a(dc-20)*R 20 )
the calculation formula of the comprehensive power loss of the power transmission and distribution transformer is as follows:
△P B ＝PQ 0 +P k β 2 (P i +K q Q i )
in the above formula, I a Is the average current over time t, k is the correction factor, R 20 Is the basic resistance, a is the temperature coefficient of the wire, dc is the average ambient temperature of the transmission line, PQ 0 For no-load losses, P k Is the load ripple loss coefficient, beta is the average load coefficient, P i For rated load loss, K q For a reactive economic equivalent, Q i The leakage flux power is rated load.
Preferably, the determining a comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy grid based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index includes:
determining the times of the index values of the evaluation indexes of the last stages belonging to the evaluation levels by adopting an expert evaluation method based on the index values of the evaluation indexes of the last stages;
determining the probability of each final-stage evaluation index belonging to x preset evaluation stages according to the number of times that the index value of each final-stage evaluation index belongs to each evaluation stage;
based on the probability that each final-stage evaluation index belongs to x preset evaluation levels, a fuzzy evaluation matrix is constructed
Wherein, F i For the ith row element, F in the fuzzy evaluation matrix i ＝[f i1 ,f i2 ,…f ij …,f ix ]，i∈[1,N]N is the total number of final evaluation indicators, f ij For the probability that the i-th final index belongs to the j-th evaluation level, j ∈ [1, x ]]；
Calculating a fuzzy evaluation vector based on the fuzzy evaluation matrix and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index;
and calculating a comprehensive evaluation value of the comprehensive energy system based on the fuzzy evaluation vector and the score corresponding to each evaluation grade in the preset x evaluation grades.
Furthermore, the probability f of the ith final indicator belonging to the jth evaluation level ij Is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, p ij The number of times that the index value of the i-th final-stage index belongs to the j-th evaluation level, and P is the total number of people in the evaluation subject.
Further, the fuzzy evaluation vector is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, w i Is the weight coefficient of the i-th final evaluation index.
Further, the calculation formula of the comprehensive evaluation value of the comprehensive energy system is as follows:
M＝LV
in the above formula, L is a fuzzy evaluation vector, and V is a preset score vector corresponding to preset x evaluation levels.
Example 3
Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a computer apparatus comprising a processor and a memory, the memory being configured to store a computer program comprising program instructions, the processor being configured to execute the program instructions stored by the computer storage medium. The Processor may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), or may be other general purpose Processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), a Field-Programmable gate array (FPGA) or other Programmable logic device, a discrete gate or transistor logic device, a discrete hardware component, etc., which is a computing core and a control core of the terminal, and is specifically adapted to implement one or more instructions, and to load and execute one or more instructions in a computer storage medium to implement a corresponding method flow or a corresponding function, so as to implement the steps of the integrated benefit evaluation method of the integrated energy network in the foregoing embodiments.
Example 4
Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention further provides a storage medium, in particular, a computer-readable storage medium (Memory), which is a Memory device in a computer device and is used for storing programs and data. It is understood that the computer readable storage medium herein can include both built-in storage medium in the computer device and, of course, extended storage medium supported by the computer device. The computer-readable storage medium provides a storage space storing an operating system of the terminal. Also, one or more instructions, which may be one or more computer programs (including program code), are stored in the memory space and are adapted to be loaded and executed by the processor. It should be noted that the computer readable storage medium may be a high-speed RAM memory, or a non-volatile memory (non-volatile memory), such as at least one disk memory. The one or more instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium may be loaded and executed by the processor to implement the steps of the method for evaluating comprehensive benefits of an integrated energy grid in the above embodiments.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer programs may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is to be covered by the claims.
Claims (26)
1. A comprehensive benefit evaluation method for an integrated energy network is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system;
determining a comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index, wherein the comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network is a comprehensive benefit evaluation result of the comprehensive energy network;
and obtaining the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system based on an analytic hierarchy process.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the pre-constructed integrated energy grid overall benefit evaluation system is a secondary state evaluation system, and the primary indicators in the pre-constructed integrated energy grid overall benefit evaluation system comprise at least one of the following: economic benefit index, social benefit index, environmental benefit index, operational benefit index, technical benefit index, low carbon benefit index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the economic benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: internal financial earning rate, financial net present value, investment recovery period, capital fund net profit rate, project liquidation and debt capability index and project operation capability index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the social benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following: the GDP number is increased, the employment position number and the satisfaction degree are provided;
the final-stage index corresponding to the environmental benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: ecological improvement rate, energy conservation and emission reduction, regional resource planning and application rate and energy structure improvement amount;
the final-stage index corresponding to the operation benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: the benefit capacity of the building, the comprehensive network loss rate and the service life of equipment are increased;
the final-stage index corresponding to the technical benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: equipment technical reliability, equipment installation form, local meteorological conditions, local natural resources;
the final-stage index corresponding to the low-carbon benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive benefit evaluation system of the comprehensive energy network comprises at least one of the following: carbon cost, carbon emission reduction.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the internal financial rate of return, FIRR, is calculated as follows:
FIRR＝i 1 +FNPV 1 (i 2 -i 1 )/(FNPV 1 -|FNPV 2 |)
the calculation formula of the financial net present value FNPV is as follows:
the investment recovery period T p Is calculated as follows:
the calculation formula of the net profit margin ROE of the capital fund is as follows:
the calculation formula of the project liquidation debt capability index is as follows:
the calculation formula of the project operation capacity index is as follows:
in the above formula, i 1 Financial benchmark profitability, i, published for the industry 2 For a predetermined financial benchmark rate of return, FNPV 1 Net present financial value, FNPV, corresponding to financial benchmark profitability as disclosed for the industry 2 The net financial present value corresponding to the preset financial benchmark profitability, wherein CI is the amount of the inflowing cash, CO is the amount of the outflowing cash, and x belongs to [0, n ]]To be i 0 For the basic discount rate of the industry, n is the total number of evaluation periods, (CI-CO) x The cash inflow for the x-th evaluation period.
4. The method of claim 2, wherein the carbon cost C ehs Is calculated as follows:
C ehs ＝E D η t T-E MG η T P
the carbon reduction
Is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, E D CO generated from system initial construction to system service life of electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system 2 Discharge amount, eta t The collection proportion coefficient of carbon tax, T is the tax amount required under the unit carbon emission, E MG CO for full life cycle of integrated energy system 2 Emissions and CO from electricity purchase from the grid when there is insufficient capacity 2 Sum of discharge amount eta T Is CO 2 The discharge amount accounts for the total discharge amount, P is the carbon trading price,
carbon emissions per degree of electricity generated in primary energy plants, W f Is the total power generation capacity of the life cycle of the comprehensive energy system,
the actual CO2 emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is obtained.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is caused by CO from system startup to system life 2 The emission is calculated as follows:
E D ＝E WT +E PV +E FC +E DE +E SB
CO of the comprehensive energy system in the whole life cycle 2 Emission and CO from grid purchase when self-power generation is insufficient 2 The calculation formula of the sum of the discharge amount is as follows:
E MG ＝E D +E N
the calculation formula of the actual CO2 emission reduction of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is as follows:
in the above formula, E WT For CO generated in the process of wind power electricity 2 Discharge amount, E PV CO produced for photovoltaic power generation processes 2 Discharge amount, E FC For CO generated in the manufacturing process of new energy equipment 2 Discharge amount, E DE CO generated for power generation of energy storage devices 2 Discharge amount, E SB CO produced for energy storage device manufacture 2 Discharge amount, E N CO for purchasing electricity from the grid 2 The amount of the discharged water is reduced,
is the actual carbon emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system,
for outsourcing electric power CO 2 And (4) discharging the amount.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the actual carbon emission reduction of the electric-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is calculated as follows:
the outsourcing power CO 2 The emission is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, P c,t The output power of the c cleaning device at the moment t, and delta tThe duration of the time period of the degree,
for CO in the manufacturing process of the c cleaning apparatus 2 Emission, B is the number of clean energy equipment, M is the number of scheduling period periods, N is the total number of the comprehensive energy system, P e,b,i,t For the purchased electric power of the ith integrated energy system at the time t,
is a carbon emission factor, x, of the unit of purchased electricity c The carbon coefficient of the c-th device.
7. The method of claim 2, wherein the benefit-of-assistance capability is calculated as follows:
the calculation formula of the comprehensive network loss rate is as follows:
in the above formula, C i,p The cost caused by the active power fluctuation of the node i, and the delta p is the active power fluctuation value of the node i, C i,q The cost caused by the reactive power fluctuation of the node i, the delta q is the reactive power fluctuation value of the node i, T is the number of the time segments of the dispatching cycle, the delta T is the time length of the dispatching time segment, and delta t For loss correction factor, Δ P A For the active loss, delta P, of the transmission and distribution line B The power loss is synthesized for the power transmission and distribution transformer.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein the power transmission and distribution line active loss is calculated as follows:
△P A ＝3(I a k) 2 (2R 20 +a(dc-20)*R 20 )
the calculation formula of the comprehensive power loss of the power transmission and distribution transformer is as follows:
△P B ＝PQ 0 +P k β 2 (P i +K q Q i )
in the above formula, I a Is the average current over time t, k is the correction factor, R 20 Is the basic resistance, a is the temperature coefficient of the wire, dc is the average ambient temperature of the transmission line, PQ 0 For no-load losses, P k Is the load ripple loss factor, beta is the average load factor, P i For rated load loss, K q For a reactive economic equivalent, Q i The leakage flux power is rated load.
9. The method of claim 1, wherein said determining a comprehensive utility evaluation value of the comprehensive energy grid based on the index value of each of the final evaluation indexes and the weight coefficient of each of the final evaluation indexes comprises:
determining the times of the index values of the evaluation indexes of the last stages belonging to the evaluation levels by adopting an expert evaluation method based on the index values of the evaluation indexes of the last stages;
determining the probability of each final-stage evaluation index belonging to x preset evaluation stages according to the number of times that the index value of each final-stage evaluation index belongs to each evaluation stage;
based on the probability that each final-stage evaluation index belongs to x preset evaluation levels, a fuzzy evaluation matrix is constructed
Wherein, F i For the ith row element, F, in the fuzzy evaluation matrix i ＝[f i1 ,f i2 ,…f ij …,f ix ]，i∈[1,N]N is the total number of final evaluation indexes, f ij For the probability that the i-th final index belongs to the j-th evaluation level, j ∈ [1, x ]]；
Calculating a fuzzy evaluation vector based on the fuzzy evaluation matrix and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index;
and calculating a comprehensive evaluation value of the comprehensive energy system based on the fuzzy evaluation vector and the score corresponding to each evaluation level in the preset x evaluation levels.
10. The method according to claim 9, characterized in that the probability f that the i-th final indicator belongs to the j-th evaluation level ij Is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, p ij The number of times that the index value of the i-th final-stage index belongs to the j-th evaluation level, and P is the total number of people in the evaluation subject.
11. The method of claim 10, wherein the fuzzy predicate vector is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, w i Is the weight coefficient of the i-th final evaluation index.
12. The method of claim 11, wherein the overall evaluation value of the integrated energy system is calculated as follows:
M＝LV
in the above formula, L is a fuzzy evaluation vector, and V is a preset score vector corresponding to preset x evaluation levels.
13. An integrated utility evaluation device for an integrated energy grid, the device comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the index value of each final-stage evaluation index in a pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system;
the determining module is used for determining a comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index, and the comprehensive benefit evaluation value of the comprehensive energy network is a comprehensive benefit evaluation result of the comprehensive energy network;
and obtaining the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system based on an analytic hierarchy process.
14. The apparatus of claim 13, wherein the pre-constructed integrated energy grid overall effectiveness evaluation system is a secondary state evaluation system, and the primary indicator in the pre-constructed integrated energy grid overall effectiveness evaluation system comprises at least one of the following: economic benefit index, social benefit index, environmental benefit index, operational benefit index, technical benefit index, low carbon benefit index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the economic benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: internal financial earning rate, financial net present value, investment recovery period, capital fund net profit rate, project liquidation and debt capability index and project operation capability index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the social benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following: the GDP number is increased, the employment position number and the satisfaction degree are provided;
the final-stage index corresponding to the environmental benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: ecological improvement rate, energy conservation and emission reduction, regional resource planning and application rate and energy structure improvement amount;
the final-stage index corresponding to the operation benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: the benefit capacity of the building, the comprehensive network loss rate and the service life of equipment are increased;
the final-stage index corresponding to the technical benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: equipment technical reliability, equipment installation form, local meteorological conditions and local natural resources;
the final-stage index corresponding to the low-carbon benefit index in the pre-constructed comprehensive energy network comprehensive benefit evaluation system comprises at least one of the following indexes: carbon cost and carbon emission reduction.
15. The apparatus of claim 14, wherein said internal financial rate of return FIRR is calculated as follows:
FIRR＝i 1 +FNPV 1 (i 2 -i 1 )/(FNPV 1 -|FNPV 2 |)
the calculation formula of the financial net present value FNPV is as follows:
the investment recovery period T p Is calculated as follows:
the calculation formula of the net profit margin ROE of the capital fund is as follows:
the calculation formula of the project liquidation debt capability index is as follows:
the calculation formula of the project operation capacity index is as follows:
in the above formula, i 1 Financial benchmark profitability, i, as disclosed for the industry 2 For a predetermined financial benchmark rate of return, FNPV 1 Net present financial value, FNPV, corresponding to financial benchmark profitability as disclosed for the industry 2 A net financial present value corresponding to a predetermined financial benchmark profitability, CI being the amount of cash flow in, CO being the amount of cash flow out, x ∈ [0, n]To be i 0 For the basic discount rate of the industry, n is the total number of evaluation periods, (CI-CO) x The cash inflow for the x-th evaluation period.
16. The apparatus of claim 15, wherein the carbon cost C ehs Is calculated as follows:
C ehs ＝E D η t T-E MG η T P
the carbon reduction
Is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, E D CO generated from system initial construction to system service life of electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system 2 Discharge amount, eta t The collection proportion coefficient of carbon tax, T is the tax amount required under the unit carbon emission, E MG CO for the full life cycle of an integrated energy system 2 Emission and CO from grid purchase when self-power generation is insufficient 2 Sum of discharge amount eta T Is CO 2 The discharge amount accounts for the total discharge amount, P is the carbon trading price,
carbon emissions per degree of electricity generated in primary energy plants, W f Is the total power generation capacity of the life cycle of the comprehensive energy system,
the actual CO2 emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is obtained.
17. The apparatus of claim 16, wherein the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system generates CO from system startup to system life 2 The emission is calculated as follows:
E D ＝E WT +E PV +E FC +E DE +E SB
CO of the comprehensive energy system in the whole life cycle 2 Emissions and CO from electricity purchase from the grid when there is insufficient capacity 2 The sum of emissions is calculated as follows:
E MG ＝E D +E N
the calculation formula of the actual CO2 emission reduction of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is as follows:
in the above formula, E WT For CO generated in the process of wind power electricity 2 Discharge amount, E PV CO produced for photovoltaic power generation processes 2 Discharge amount, E FC For CO generated in the process of manufacturing new energy equipment 2 Discharge amount, E DE CO generated for power generation of energy storage devices 2 Discharge amount, E SB CO produced for energy storage device manufacture 2 Discharge amount, E N CO for purchasing electricity from the grid 2 The amount of the discharged water is increased,
is the actual carbon emission reduction amount of the electricity-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system,
for outsourcing electric power CO 2 And (4) discharging the amount.
18. The apparatus of claim 17, wherein the actual carbon reduction capacity of the electric-hydrogen-storage integrated energy system is calculated as follows:
the outsourcing power CO 2 The emission is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, P c,t The output power of the c-th cleaning device at time t, Δ t the duration of the scheduling period,
for CO in the manufacturing process of the c cleaning plant 2 Emission, B is the number of clean energy equipment, M is the number of scheduling period periods, N is the total number of the comprehensive energy system, P e,b,i,t For the purchased electric power of the ith integrated energy system at the time t,
carbon emission factor of unit outsourcing electricity quantity, x c The carbon coefficient of the c-th device.
19. The apparatus of claim 14, wherein the benefit-of-assistance capability is calculated as follows:
the calculation formula of the comprehensive network loss rate is as follows:
in the above formula, C i,p The cost caused by the active power fluctuation of the node i, and the delta p is the active power fluctuation value of the node i, C i,q The cost caused by the reactive power fluctuation of the node i, delta q is the reactive power fluctuation value of the node i, T is the number of the scheduling period time, delta T is the duration of the scheduling time interval, delta t For loss correction factor, Δ P A For the active loss, delta P, of the transmission and distribution line B The power loss is synthesized for the power transmission and distribution transformer.
20. The apparatus of claim 19, wherein the power transmission and distribution line active loss is calculated as follows:
△P A ＝3(I a k) 2 (2R 20 +a(dc-20)*R 20 )
the calculation formula of the comprehensive power loss of the power transmission and distribution transformer is as follows:
△P B ＝PQ 0 +P k β 2 (P i +K q Q i )
in the above formula, I a Is the average current over time t, k is the correction factor, R 20 A is the base resistance, a is the temperature coefficient of the wire, dc is the average ambient temperature at which the transmission line is located, PQ 0 For no-load losses, P k Is the load ripple loss factor, beta is the average load factor, P i For rated load loss, K q For a reactive economic equivalent, Q i The leakage flux power is rated load.
21. The apparatus of claim 13, wherein said determining a comprehensive utility evaluation value of the comprehensive energy grid based on the index value of each of the final evaluation indexes and the weight coefficient of each of the final evaluation indexes comprises:
determining the number of times that the index value of each final-stage evaluation index belongs to each evaluation grade by adopting an expert evaluation method based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index;
determining the probability that each final-stage evaluation index belongs to x preset evaluation levels according to the number of times that the index value of each final-stage evaluation index belongs to each evaluation level;
based on the probability that each final-stage evaluation index belongs to x preset evaluation levels, a fuzzy evaluation matrix is constructed
Wherein, F i For the ith row element, F in the fuzzy evaluation matrix i ＝[f i1 ,f i2 ,…f ij …,f ix ]，i∈[1,N]N is the total number of final evaluation indexes, f ij For the probability that the ith final index belongs to the jth evaluation level, j ∈ [1,x ]]；
Calculating a fuzzy evaluation vector based on a fuzzy evaluation matrix and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index;
and calculating a comprehensive evaluation value of the comprehensive energy system based on the fuzzy evaluation vector and the score corresponding to each evaluation grade in the preset x evaluation grades.
22. The apparatus of claim 21, wherein the probability f that the ith final indicator belongs to the jth evaluation level ij Is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, p ij The number of times that the index value of the i-th final-stage index belongs to the j-th evaluation level, and P is the total number of people in the evaluation subject.
23. The apparatus of claim 22, wherein the fuzzy predicate vector is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, w i Is the weight coefficient of the i-th final evaluation index.
24. The apparatus of claim 23, wherein the overall evaluation value of the integrated energy system is calculated as follows:
M＝LV
in the above formula, L is a fuzzy evaluation vector, and V is a preset score vector corresponding to preset x evaluation levels.
25. A computer device, comprising: one or more processors;
the processor to store one or more programs;
the one or more programs, when executed by the one or more processors, implement the integrated energy grid integrated benefits assessment method of any of claims 1 to 12.
26. A computer-readable storage medium, having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed, implements the integrated energy grid overall benefit assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 12.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202211122907.6A CN115619072A (en) | 2022-09-15 | 2022-09-15 | Comprehensive benefit evaluation method and device for comprehensive energy network |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202211122907.6A CN115619072A (en) | 2022-09-15 | 2022-09-15 | Comprehensive benefit evaluation method and device for comprehensive energy network |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN115619072A true CN115619072A (en) | 2023-01-17 |
Family
ID=84857892
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202211122907.6A Pending CN115619072A (en) | 2022-09-15 | 2022-09-15 | Comprehensive benefit evaluation method and device for comprehensive energy network |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN115619072A (en) |
-
2022
- 2022-09-15 CN CN202211122907.6A patent/CN115619072A/en active Pending
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| Yu et al. | Uncertainties of virtual power plant: Problems and countermeasures | |
| Foley et al. | A strategic review of electricity systems models | |
| Daim et al. | Technology roadmapping for wind energy: case of the Pacific Northwest | |
| CN106126923B (en) | Basin step water,tap power generation compensation method and system | |
| Babatunde et al. | Coherent or conflicting? Assessing natural gas subsidy and energy efficiency policy interactions amid CO2 emissions reduction in Malaysia electricity sector | |
| CN115907927A (en) | Virtual power plant quotation auxiliary method, system, device and storage medium | |
| CN106779142A (en) | A kind of sale of electricity main body Contract Energy optimization method and device | |
| CN111695943A (en) | Optimization management method considering floating peak electricity price | |
| CN115271532A (en) | Comprehensive energy utilization data analysis method | |
| Hardy et al. | Putting wind and solar in their place: Internalising congestion and other system-wide costs with enhanced contracts for difference in Great Britain | |
| Wu et al. | Optimal site selection of rural wind–photovoltaic-storage station from a sustainable development perspective | |
| D'Adamo et al. | Economics and policy implications of residential photovoltaic systems in Italy's developed market | |
| Bergmann et al. | The costs and benefits of renewable energy in Scotland | |
| CN116777616A (en) | Probability density distribution-based future market new energy daily transaction decision method | |
| CN112949956A (en) | Power generation enterprise marketization operation risk assessment method based on spot transaction | |
| CN116205368A (en) | Grid project investment portfolio optimization method and system based on system dynamics | |
| Ma et al. | The tradable flexibility certificate market policy for flexible investment incentive | |
| CN115619072A (en) | Comprehensive benefit evaluation method and device for comprehensive energy network | |
| Obersteiner et al. | Influence of market rules on the economic value of wind power: an Austrian case study | |
| Tang et al. | Credit rating-and credit score-based carbon emission quota trading model of city dwellers | |
| CN113177682A (en) | Power grid enterprise comprehensive performance evaluation method and device based on system dynamics theory | |
| FitzGerald et al. | Irish Energy Policy: An analysis of current issues | |
| Hosking et al. | Generating Guidance on Public Preferences for the Location of Wind Turbine Farms in the Eastern Cape | |
| Kant | The effectiveness of renewable energy policies in the American and German wind turbine industry: a mixed methods approach | |
| Crump et al. | Modeling Grid-Friendly Clean Energy Communities and Induced Intra-Community Cash Flows |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication |