CN115601074A - Simulation analysis method and system for influence of carbon transaction mechanism on electricity consumption cost - Google Patents

Simulation analysis method and system for influence of carbon transaction mechanism on electricity consumption cost Download PDF

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CN115601074A
CN115601074A CN202211361663.7A CN202211361663A CN115601074A CN 115601074 A CN115601074 A CN 115601074A CN 202211361663 A CN202211361663 A CN 202211361663A CN 115601074 A CN115601074 A CN 115601074A
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industry
unit
carbon
thermal power
calculating
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马天男
姚实颖
彭丽霖
马瑞光
罗劲瑭
唐艺鸣
刘洁颖
王芸
王倩
胡林
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State Grid Sichuan Economic Research Institute
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/02—Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
    • G06Q30/0201—Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/04—Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/008—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks involving trading of energy or energy transmission rights
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
    • H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
    • Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
    • Y02P90/80—Management or planning
    • Y02P90/84—Greenhouse gas [GHG] management systems
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
    • Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
    • Y02P90/80—Management or planning
    • Y02P90/84—Greenhouse gas [GHG] management systems
    • Y02P90/845—Inventory and reporting systems for greenhouse gases [GHG]

Abstract

The invention discloses a simulation analysis method and a system for influence of a carbon transaction mechanism on electricity consumption cost, relates to the technical field of data processing, and solves the problems that the existing analysis method does not analyze two dimensions of an industry and a machine set, and does not distinguish the influence of the carbon transaction mechanism in the near term and the long term, and the technical scheme is as follows: acquiring industry measurement and calculation data and establishing an industry measurement and calculation model; acquiring unit measurement and calculation data, and establishing a unit measurement and calculation model; acquiring industry measuring and calculating data and unit measuring and calculating data of a first period, respectively inputting the industry measuring and calculating model and the unit measuring and calculating model to obtain the degree electric ringing results of recent industry and units, acquiring the industry measuring and calculating data and the unit measuring and calculating data of a second period, respectively inputting the industry measuring and calculating model and the unit measuring and calculating model to obtain the degree electric ringing results of long-term industry and units; an industry measuring model and a unit measuring model are constructed, and the influence of a carbon transaction mechanism on the thermal power generation degree is analyzed from two dimensions of the industry and the unit and two periods of near and far.

Description

Simulation analysis method and system for influence of carbon transaction mechanism on electricity consumption cost
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of data processing, in particular to a method and a system for simulating and analyzing the influence of a carbon transaction mechanism on electricity consumption cost.
Background
As the first developing country, china has a large energy demand and faces a great greenhouse gas emission reduction pressure. In 7 months in 2021, china started a nationwide uniform carbon emission trading market, and the power generation industry was preferentially incorporated. Under a carbon trading mechanism, the carbon emission reduction pressure can possibly convert greenhouse gases into cost inside an enterprise, so that the enterprise participates in carbon trading, an accounting method for finding out the carbon emission cost is needed, and the analysis of the economic benefit of the accounting method has important significance on the economic operation of a generator set.
At present, a plurality of scholars in China mainly focus on an accounting system for bringing carbon cost into a traditional life cycle, and mainly adopt methods such as heuristic algorithm, hierarchical analysis and the like for researching the carbon cost of the generator set. However, the existing research mainly focuses on the carbon emission to be accounted in the traditional life cycle of the generator set, and does not analyze from two dimensions of the industry and the generator set, and does not distinguish the influence of the recent carbon market and the future carbon market.
Disclosure of Invention
The application aims to provide a simulation analysis method for the influence of a carbon transaction mechanism on the electricity consumption cost, an industry measuring and calculating model and a unit measuring and calculating model are established, the influence of the carbon transaction mechanism on the electricity consumption of thermal power generation is researched from two dimensions, and the influence of a near-term carbon market and a far-term carbon market is analyzed by considering data of two periods during actual measuring and calculating.
The technical purpose of the application is realized by the following technical scheme: comprises that
Acquiring industry measurement and calculation data and establishing an industry measurement and calculation model;
acquiring unit measurement and calculation data, and establishing a unit measurement and calculation model;
the method comprises the steps of obtaining industry measurement and calculation data and unit measurement and calculation data of a first period, respectively inputting an industry measurement and calculation model and a unit measurement and calculation model, obtaining the degree electric ringing result of a recent industry and a unit, obtaining the industry measurement and calculation data and the unit measurement and calculation data of a second period, respectively inputting the industry measurement and calculation model and the unit measurement and calculation model, and obtaining the degree electric ringing result of a long-term industry and a unit.
By adopting the technical scheme, an industry measuring model and a unit measuring model are constructed, the influence of the carbon transaction mechanism on the thermal power generation degree electricity is analyzed from two dimensions of the industry and the unit, the measuring data of the first period and the second period are obtained, and the influence of the near-term and far-term carbon transaction mechanism on the activity power generation degree electricity is analyzed.
Further, the acquiring industry measurement and calculation data and establishing an industry measurement and calculation model include:
acquiring the capacity of a thermal power generating unit and the average utilization hours of thermal power, and calculating the annual total power generation amount of the thermal power industry;
acquiring a thermal power carbon emission factor, and calculating the annual carbon emission total of the thermal power industry brought into the market by combining the annual power generation total of the thermal power industry;
acquiring a carbon quota total gap proportion and a carbon trading price, bringing the annual carbon emission total amount of the thermal power industry and the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry into the market, and calculating an increased value of the average thermal power electricity consumption cost caused by the carbon trading price;
and simplifying the increase value of the average thermal power electricity consumption cost caused by carbon value through the annual carbon emission total amount of the thermal power industry brought into the market to obtain an industry measuring and calculating model.
Further, it is characterized in that: the industry measuring and calculating model comprises the following steps:
C z ＝δ×Pc×ε
wherein, C z Delta is the carbon quota total gap ratio, P c And epsilon is a thermal power carbon emission factor.
Further, acquiring unit measurement and calculation data, and establishing a unit measurement and calculation model, wherein the unit measurement and calculation model comprises the following steps:
acquiring unit power supply standard coal consumption, unit power supply quantity, unit heat supply standard coal consumption, unit heat supply quantity and coal-fired standard coal carbon emission coefficient, and calculating annual carbon emission of the thermal power unit;
calculating the carbon emission intensity of actual power supply of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry and the annual carbon emission amount of the thermal power generating unit;
acquiring a power supply carbon emission reference value, and calculating a carbon quota gap ratio by combining the actual power supply carbon emission intensity of the thermal power generating unit;
acquiring a quota auction ratio, and calculating a power consumption cost increase value of the thermal power generating unit by combining a power supply carbon emission reference value, a carbon transaction price and the actual power supply carbon emission intensity of the thermal power generating unit;
and simplifying the added value of the power consumption cost of the thermal power generating unit through the carbon quota gap ratio to obtain a unit measuring and calculating model.
Further, the unit measuring and calculating model is as follows:
C i ＝(α+β)×B e，i ×P c
wherein, C i For increasing the power consumption cost of the thermal power generating unit, alpha is the quota auction ratio of the unit, beta is the carbon quota gap ratio, B e，i For supplying a reference value of carbon emissions, P c Is the carbon trade price.
Another aspect of the application provides a system for simulating and analyzing the influence of carbon transaction mechanism on electricity consumption cost, which comprises
The industry measuring and calculating model module is used for acquiring industry measuring and calculating data and establishing an industry measuring and calculating model;
the unit measuring and calculating model module is used for acquiring unit measuring and calculating data and establishing a unit measuring and calculating model;
the near-far period prediction module is used for acquiring the industry measurement and calculation data and the unit measurement and calculation data of a first period, respectively inputting the industry measurement and calculation model and the unit measurement and calculation model to acquire the near-term industry and unit measurement and calculation result, acquiring the industry measurement and calculation data and the unit measurement and calculation data of a second period, respectively inputting the industry measurement and calculation model and the unit measurement and calculation model to acquire the far-term industry and unit measurement and calculation result.
Further, the industry measurement and calculation model module is also used for
Acquiring the capacity of a thermal power generating unit and the average utilization hours of thermal power, and calculating the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry;
acquiring a thermal power carbon emission factor, and calculating the annual carbon emission total of the thermal power industry brought into the market by combining the annual power generation total of the thermal power industry;
acquiring a carbon quota total gap proportion and a carbon trading price, bringing the annual carbon emission total amount of the thermal power industry and the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry into the market, and calculating an increased value of the average thermal power electricity consumption cost caused by the carbon trading price;
and simplifying the increase value of the average thermal power electricity consumption cost caused by carbon value through the annual carbon emission total amount of the thermal power industry brought into the market to obtain an industry measuring and calculating model.
Further, the industry measurement model is as follows:
C z ＝δ×P c ×ε
wherein, C z Delta is the carbon quota total gap ratio, P c And epsilon is a thermal power carbon emission factor.
Further, the unit measuring and calculating model module is also used for
Acquiring unit power supply standard coal consumption, unit power supply quantity, unit heat supply standard coal consumption, unit heat supply quantity and coal-fired standard coal carbon emission coefficient, and calculating annual carbon emission of the thermal power unit;
calculating the carbon emission intensity of actual power supply of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry and the annual carbon emission amount of the thermal power generating unit;
acquiring a power supply carbon emission reference value, and calculating a carbon quota gap ratio by combining the actual power supply carbon emission intensity of the thermal power generating unit;
acquiring a quota auction ratio, and calculating a power consumption cost increase value of the thermal power generating unit by combining a power supply carbon emission reference value, a carbon transaction price and the actual power supply carbon emission intensity of the thermal power generating unit;
and simplifying the added value of the power consumption cost of the thermal power generating unit through the carbon quota gap ratio to obtain a unit measuring and calculating model.
Further, the unit measuring and calculating model is as follows:
C i ＝(α+β)×B e，i ×P c
wherein, C i Adding value for the power consumption cost of the thermal power generating unit, wherein alpha is the quota auction ratio of the unit, beta is the carbon quota gap ratio, and B e，i For supplying a reference value of carbon emissions, P c Is the carbon trade price.
Compared with the prior art, the method has the following beneficial effects: the method comprises the steps of constructing an industry measuring model and a unit measuring model, analyzing the influence of a carbon transaction mechanism on thermal power generation power from two dimensions of the industry and the unit, acquiring measuring data of a first period and a second period, analyzing the influence of a near-term carbon transaction mechanism and a far-term carbon transaction mechanism on active power generation power, overcoming the problems that the existing research cannot be started from the dimension of the whole thermal power industry and from near-term and far-term perspectives, and being simple in analysis method calculation, small in required data quantity and high in precision.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the embodiments of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiment(s) of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the principles of the invention. In the drawings:
fig. 1 is a flowchart of a simulation analysis method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
Hereinafter, the terms "includes" or "may include" used in various embodiments of the present application indicate the presence of the claimed function, operation, or element, and do not limit the addition of one or more functions, operations, or elements. Furthermore, as used in various embodiments of the present application, the terms "comprising," "having," and their derivatives, are intended to be only representative of particular features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, or combinations of the foregoing, and should not be construed as first excluding the existence of, or adding to one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, or combinations of the foregoing.
In various embodiments of the present application, the expression "or" at least one of B or/and C "includes any or all combinations of the words listed simultaneously. For example, the expression "B or C" or "at least one of B or/and C" may include B, may include C, or may include both B and C.
Expressions (such as "first", "second", and the like) used in various embodiments of the present application may modify various constituent elements in the various embodiments, but may not limit the respective constituent elements. For example, the above description does not limit the order and/or importance of the elements described. The above description is only intended to distinguish one element from another. For example, the first user device and the second user device indicate different user devices, although both are user devices. For example, a first element could be termed a second element, and, similarly, a second element could be termed a first element, without departing from the scope of various embodiments of the present application.
It should be noted that: if it is described that one constituent element is "connected" to or "connected" with another constituent element, the first constituent element may be directly connected to the second constituent element, and the third constituent element may be "connected" between the first constituent element and the second constituent element. In contrast, when one constituent element is "directly connected" to or with another constituent element, it is understood that there is no third constituent element between the first constituent element and the second constituent element.
The terminology used in the various embodiments of the present application is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the various embodiments of the present application. As used herein, the singular forms are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. Unless otherwise defined, all terms (including technical and scientific terms) used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which the various embodiments of the present application belong. The terms (such as those defined in commonly used dictionaries) should be interpreted as having a meaning that is consistent with their contextual meaning in the relevant art and will not be interpreted in an idealized or overly formal sense unless expressly so defined herein in various embodiments.
To make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present application more apparent, the present application is further described in detail below with reference to examples and drawings, and the exemplary embodiments and descriptions thereof are only used for explaining the present application and are not used as limitations of the present application.
Example 1
In the embodiment, the influence of a carbon transaction mechanism on the thermal power generation degree is researched through two dimensions of an industry measuring and calculating model and a unit measuring and calculating model, and during measuring and calculating, the influence of a near-term carbon market and a far-term carbon market is analyzed by considering data of two periods.
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a flow chart of a simulation analysis method, which includes:
acquiring industry measurement and calculation data and establishing an industry measurement and calculation model;
acquiring unit measurement and calculation data, and establishing a unit measurement and calculation model;
acquiring industry measurement data and unit measurement data of a first period, respectively inputting an industry measurement model and a unit measurement model to acquire the degree electric sound results of the recent industry and the unit, acquiring the industry measurement data and the unit measurement data of a second period, respectively inputting the industry measurement model and the unit measurement model to acquire the degree electric sound results of the remote industry and the unit
Further, acquiring industry measurement and calculation data and establishing an industry measurement and calculation model, wherein the industry measurement and calculation model comprises the following steps:
acquiring the capacity of a thermal power generating unit and the average thermal power utilization hours, and calculating the annual total power generation quantity Q (MWh) of the thermal power industry:
Q＝V c ×T c #(1)
wherein, V c Expressed as thermal power unit capacity (MWh); t is a unit of c The number of average thermal power utilization hours (h) is shown.
Acquiring a thermal power carbon emission factor, and calculating the annual carbon emission total E (t & CO 2) of the thermal power industry brought into the market by combining the annual power generation total of the thermal power industry:
E＝Q×ε#(2)
wherein Q represents the annual total power generation amount in the thermal power industry; and epsilon represents the thermal power carbon emission factor epsilon (t.CO 2/MWh).
Acquiring a carbon quota total gap proportion and a carbon trading price, bringing the annual carbon emission total of the thermal power industry and the annual power generation total of the thermal power industry into the market, and calculating an added value C of the average thermal power electricity consumption cost caused by the carbon trading price z (Yuan/MWh):
Figure BDA0003922832710000051
wherein, δ is a gap ratio of the total carbon quota, and represents a difference between the actual emission total of the thermal power industry and the total quota distributed by the government (the initial carbon market of each country is less than 5%).
The annual carbon emission total amount (2) of the thermal power industry brought into the market simplifies the thermal power average electricity consumption cost increase value (3) caused by carbon price, and an industry measurement model is obtained:
Figure BDA0003922832710000052
further, acquiring unit measurement and calculation data, and establishing a unit measurement and calculation model, wherein the unit measurement and calculation data comprises the following steps:
acquiring unit power supply standard coal consumption, unit power supply quantity, unit heat supply standard coal consumption, unit heat supply quantity and coal-fired conversion standard coal carbon emission coefficient, and calculating annual carbon emission E of the thermal power unit i (t·CO2)：
E i ＝b e，i ×σ×Q e，i +b h，i ×σ×Q h，i #(5)
Wherein, b e，i Supplying power to the unit for marking coal consumption (tce/MWh); q e，i Power supply capacity (MWh) for the unit; b h，i Supplying heat to the unit for standard coal consumption (tee/TJ); q h，i Providing heat to the unit (TJ); sigma is a coal-fired standard coal carbon emission coefficient (t.CO 2/tce) and represents the CO2 emission generated by burning standard coal of 1kg converted from raw coal, and the value is related to the carbon content and carbon oxidation rate of the unit calorific value of coal.
Calculating the carbon emission intensity E of actual power supply of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry and the annual carbon emission amount of the thermal power generating unit c ：
Figure BDA0003922832710000061
According to the national carbon market operation rule, the control and emission enterprises pay the quotas of not less than the carbon emission amount to the governing departments every year to perform. Acquiring a power supply carbon emission reference value, and calculating a carbon quota gap ratio by combining the carbon emission intensity of actual power supply of the thermal power generating unit:
Figure BDA0003922832710000062
wherein, B e，i Specific values for the power supply carbon emission reference value (t. CO 2/MWh) are shown in Table 1.
TABLE 1 national carbon market coal-fired unit quota allocation benchmark
Type of unit Carbon emission reference B for power supply e，i
Conventional coal-fired unit with more than 300MW grade 0.877
300 MW-grade and below conventional coal-fired unit 0.979
Unconventional coal-fired unit for coal gangue, coal water slurry and the like 1.146
Gas engine set 0.392
Obtaining a quota auction ratio, and calculating a power consumption cost increase value C of the thermal power generating unit by combining a power supply carbon emission reference value, a carbon transaction price and the actual power supply carbon emission intensity of the thermal power generating unit i (Yuan/MWh):
C i ＝B e，i ×P c ×α+(E c -B e，i )×P c #(8)
wherein α is a quota auction ratio. According to the national carbon market quota allocation scheme, at the beginning of the national carbon market, carbon quota is allocated in free form (i.e., α = 0); as the carbon market has grown deeper, the value of α will gradually increase.
Simplifying the added value of the power consumption cost (8) of the thermal power generating unit through the carbon quota gap ratio (7) to obtain a unit measuring and calculating model:
C i ＝(α+β)×B e，i ×P c #(9)
in addition, under the coupling influence of the carbon market and the electric power market, the following formula can be used for calculating the profit R generated by unit power generation amount when the thermal power generating unit i participates in electric power trading i (Yuan/MW · h:
R i ＝G i -C i -C t #(10)
wherein, G i For the sake of the clear price (yuan/MWh); c t The traditional unit power generation cost (yuan/MWh) is obtained, and the value of the traditional unit power generation cost is related to investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, fuel cost and the like. The generated electricity market comprises various power supply types, such as coal electricity, gas electricity, water electricity, wind electricity, photoelectricity and biomass energy power generation, and the like, the quotations of the units in the centralized bidding market are sorted from low to high, when the accumulated bidding electricity quantity is equal to the total electricity quantity required by the market, the electricity price is the clear electricity price, and the generator set with the quotation lower than the clear electricity price successfully bids.
In another aspect, this embodiment further provides a simulation analysis system for influence of a carbon transaction mechanism on electricity consumption cost, which is used to implement the above simulation analysis method, where the simulation analysis system includes:
the industry measuring and calculating model module is used for acquiring industry measuring and calculating data and establishing an industry measuring and calculating model;
the unit measuring and calculating model module is used for acquiring unit measuring and calculating data and establishing a unit measuring and calculating model;
the near-term and long-term prediction module is used for acquiring the industry measurement and calculation data and the unit measurement and calculation data in the first period, respectively inputting the industry measurement and calculation model and the unit measurement and calculation model to acquire the near-term industry and unit degree electric response results, acquiring the industry measurement and calculation data and the unit measurement and calculation data in the second period, respectively inputting the industry measurement and calculation model and the unit measurement and calculation model to acquire the long-term industry and unit degree electric response results.
Further, an industry measurement and calculation model module is also used for
Acquiring the capacity of a thermal power generating unit and the average utilization hours of thermal power, and calculating the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry;
acquiring a thermal power carbon emission factor, and calculating the annual carbon emission total of the thermal power industry brought into the market by combining the annual power generation total of the thermal power industry;
acquiring a carbon quota total gap proportion and a carbon trading price, bringing the annual carbon emission total amount of the thermal power industry and the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry into the market, and calculating an increased value of the average thermal power electricity consumption cost caused by the carbon trading price;
and simplifying the increase value of the average thermal power electricity consumption cost caused by carbon value through the annual carbon emission total amount of the thermal power industry brought into the market to obtain an industry measuring and calculating model.
The industry measurement model is as follows:
C z ＝δ×P c ×ε
wherein, C z Delta is the carbon quota total gap ratio, P c And epsilon is a thermal power carbon emission factor.
Model module for unit measurement and calculation, and is also used for
Acquiring unit power supply standard coal consumption, unit power supply quantity, unit heat supply standard coal consumption, unit heat supply quantity and coal-fired standard coal carbon emission coefficient, and calculating annual carbon emission of the thermal power generating unit;
calculating the carbon emission intensity of actual power supply of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry and the annual carbon emission amount of the thermal power generating unit;
acquiring a power supply carbon emission reference value, and calculating a carbon quota gap ratio by combining the actual power supply carbon emission intensity of the thermal power generating unit;
acquiring a quota auction ratio, and calculating a power consumption cost increase value of the thermal power generating unit by combining a power supply carbon emission reference value, a carbon transaction price and the actual power supply carbon emission intensity of the thermal power generating unit;
and simplifying the added value of the power consumption cost of the thermal power generating unit through the carbon quota gap ratio to obtain a unit measuring and calculating model.
The unit measuring and calculating model comprises the following steps:
C i ＝(α+β)×B e，i ×P c
wherein, C i Adding value for the power consumption cost of the thermal power generating unit, wherein alpha is the quota auction ratio of the unit, beta is the carbon quota gap ratio, and B e，i For supplying a reference value of carbon emissions, P c Is the carbon trade price.
Example 2
In this embodiment, the simulation analysis method provided in embodiment 1 is applied to a specific scene, and further description is provided.
Taking the national electricity market of 2020 as an example, the quota total gap delta and the carbon price P of the national carbon market are set c 5% and 50 yuan/ton respectively. Since the current national carbon market is still in its infancy, carbon credits are still distributed in a free form (i.e., α = 0). According to the data of the State statistics bureau, the total capacity V of the thermal power engine assembling machine in 2020 c Average utilization hour T of thermal power generating unit c And the thermal power carbon emission factor epsilon is 124624 ten thousand watt-hours, 4154h and 832g/kWh respectively.
(1) Recent measurement and calculation results
Based on an industry estimation model, the average power generation cost of thermal power is increased by about 2.08 cm/kilowatt.
Based on the unit measuring and calculating model, the recent electricity consumption cost increase value is calculated according to the carbon emission reference value corresponding to different types of thermal power generating units and the actual power supply carbon emission intensity maximum value, and is shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 characteristic parameters of thermal power generating units and incremental value of electricity consumption cost caused by carbon value in recent period
Figure BDA0003922832710000091
The measurement results show that most of the ultra-supercritical and supercritical units have surplus carbon quota and can be sold and profitable in the carbon market, wherein 1000MW ultra-supercritical unit can profit at least 6.15 cm/kilowatt-hour. In contrast, most subcritical units have gaps in carbon quota and need to be bought from the carbon market or self-abated, and therefore, the power generation cost of the subcritical units will rise to different degrees, wherein the power cost of the subcritical units below 200MW will increase by 3 cm/kwh.
(2) Analysis of long term measurement results
At the 5% carbon quota gap level, industry estimation model calculations show that: if the long-term carbon value rises to 90-160 yuan/ton in 2030 years, the average power generation cost of the thermal power is increased by about 3.7-6.7 cm/kilowatt-hour. If 20% of carbon quota is distributed in an auction form, the average power generation cost of the thermal power is increased by 1.9-3.3 min/kilowatt-hour; when the total carbon quota is auctioned, the power generation cost increases by 7.4 to 13.3 minutes/kilowatt-hour.
Based on the unit measuring and calculating model, the incremental value of the long-term electricity cost calculated according to the carbon emission reference value corresponding to different types of thermal power generating units and the maximum value of the actual power supply carbon emission intensity is shown in table 3
TABLE 3 characteristic parameters and incremental value of long-term electricity consumption cost of thermal power generating unit
Figure BDA0003922832710000092
Figure BDA0003922832710000101
The long-term carbon emission reference value of the thermal power generating unit is continuously reduced, if the long-term carbon emission reference value is considered according to the same reference value, the average value of the coal consumption of the current power supply is 304.9 g/kilowatt hour (the corresponding carbon emission reference value is 793 g/kilowatt hour), the carbon quota of the 1000MW unit is still surplus, the carbon quota of the 300MW unit has a gap, the universal quota of the 300MW unit has a gap, and if the carbon price is estimated according to 90 yuan/ton, the kilowatt cost of the thermal power generating unit is increased by 1.9-2.1 min/kilowatt hour. There is a margin in the carbon quota for most supercritical and ultra supercritical units, with 600MW ultra supercritical yielding at least 0.4 cm/kwh. Under the same unit capacity, the electricity consumption cost of the ultra-supercritical unit is generally lower than that of the supercritical unit, for example, when the unit capacity is 1000MW, the ultra-supercritical unit can benefit at least 1 cm/kw hour, and the supercritical unit can benefit at least 0.9 cm/kw hour.
The above-mentioned embodiments are intended to illustrate the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention in further detail, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are merely exemplary embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. A simulation analysis method for influence of a carbon transaction mechanism on electricity consumption cost is characterized by comprising the following steps: comprises that
Acquiring industry measurement and calculation data and establishing an industry measurement and calculation model;
acquiring unit measuring and calculating data, and establishing a unit measuring and calculating model;
the method comprises the steps of obtaining industry measurement and calculation data and unit measurement and calculation data of a first period, respectively inputting an industry measurement and calculation model and a unit measurement and calculation model, obtaining the degree electric ringing result of a recent industry and a unit, obtaining the industry measurement and calculation data and the unit measurement and calculation data of a second period, respectively inputting the industry measurement and calculation model and the unit measurement and calculation model, and obtaining the degree electric ringing result of a long-term industry and a unit.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the acquiring industry measurement and calculation data and establishing an industry measurement and calculation model comprise the following steps:
acquiring the capacity of a thermal power generating unit and the average utilization hours of thermal power, and calculating the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry;
acquiring a thermal power carbon emission factor, and calculating the annual carbon emission total of the thermal power industry brought into the market by combining the annual power generation total of the thermal power industry;
acquiring a carbon quota total amount gap proportion and a carbon trading price, bringing the annual carbon emission total amount of the thermal power industry and the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry into the market, and calculating an increased value of the average thermal power consumption cost caused by the carbon trading price;
and simplifying the increase value of the average thermal power electricity consumption cost caused by carbon value through the annual carbon emission total amount of the thermal power industry brought into the market to obtain an industry measuring and calculating model.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the industry measurement model is as follows:
C z ＝δ×P c ×ε
wherein, C z Delta is the carbon quota total gap ratio, P c And epsilon is a thermal power carbon emission factor.
4. The method of claim 2, wherein the method comprises the steps of: acquiring unit measurement and calculation data, and establishing a unit measurement and calculation model, wherein the unit measurement and calculation data comprises the following steps:
acquiring unit power supply standard coal consumption, unit power supply quantity, unit heat supply standard coal consumption, unit heat supply quantity and coal-fired standard coal carbon emission coefficient, and calculating annual carbon emission of the thermal power unit;
calculating the carbon emission intensity of actual power supply of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry and the annual carbon emission amount of the thermal power generating unit;
acquiring a power supply carbon emission reference value, and calculating a carbon quota gap ratio by combining the actual power supply carbon emission intensity of the thermal power generating unit;
acquiring a quota auction ratio, and calculating a power consumption cost increase value of the thermal power generating unit by combining a power supply carbon emission reference value, a carbon transaction price and the actual power supply carbon emission intensity of the thermal power generating unit;
and simplifying the added value of the power cost of the thermal power generating unit through the carbon quota gap proportion to obtain a unit measuring and calculating model.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the unit measuring and calculating model comprises the following steps:
C i ＝(α+β)×B e，A ×P c
wherein, C i Adding value for the power consumption cost of the thermal power generating unit, wherein alpha is the quota auction ratio of the unit, beta is the carbon quota gap ratio, and B e，i For supplying a reference value of carbon emissions, P c Is the carbon transaction price.
6. A simulation analysis system for influence of a carbon transaction mechanism on electricity consumption cost is characterized in that: comprises that
The industry measuring and calculating model module is used for acquiring industry measuring and calculating data and establishing an industry measuring and calculating model;
the unit measuring and calculating model module is used for acquiring unit measuring and calculating data and establishing a unit measuring and calculating model;
the near-far period prediction module is used for acquiring the industry measurement and calculation data and the unit measurement and calculation data of a first period, respectively inputting the industry measurement and calculation model and the unit measurement and calculation model to acquire the near-term industry and unit measurement and calculation result, acquiring the industry measurement and calculation data and the unit measurement and calculation data of a second period, respectively inputting the industry measurement and calculation model and the unit measurement and calculation model to acquire the far-term industry and unit measurement and calculation result.
7. The system of claim 6, wherein the system comprises: the industry measurement and calculation model module is also used for
Acquiring the capacity of a thermal power generating unit and the average utilization hours of thermal power, and calculating the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry;
acquiring a thermal power carbon emission factor, and calculating the annual carbon emission total of the thermal power industry brought into the market by combining the annual power generation total of the thermal power industry;
acquiring a carbon quota total gap proportion and a carbon trading price, bringing the annual carbon emission total amount of the thermal power industry and the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry into the market, and calculating an increased value of the average thermal power electricity consumption cost caused by the carbon trading price;
and simplifying the increased value of the average thermal power electricity cost caused by carbon price through the annual carbon emission total amount of the thermal power industry brought into the market to obtain an industry measuring and calculating model.
8. The system of claim 7, wherein the system is configured to perform a simulation analysis of the impact of carbon trading mechanism on electricity costs:
the industry measuring and calculating model comprises the following steps:
C z ＝δ×P c ×ε
wherein, C z Delta is the carbon quota total gap ratio, P c And epsilon is a thermal power carbon emission factor.
9. The system of claim 6, wherein the system is configured to perform the analysis of the impact of carbon trading mechanisms on electricity costs by: the unit measuring and calculating model module is also used for
Acquiring unit power supply standard coal consumption, unit power supply quantity, unit heat supply standard coal consumption, unit heat supply quantity and coal-fired standard coal carbon emission coefficient, and calculating annual carbon emission of the thermal power unit;
calculating the carbon emission intensity of actual power supply of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual power generation total amount of the thermal power industry and the annual carbon emission amount of the thermal power generating unit;
acquiring a power supply carbon emission reference value, and calculating a carbon quota gap ratio by combining the actual power supply carbon emission intensity of the thermal power generating unit;
acquiring a quota auction ratio, and calculating a power consumption cost increase value of the thermal power generating unit by combining a power supply carbon emission reference value, a carbon transaction price and the actual power supply carbon emission intensity of the thermal power generating unit;
and simplifying the added value of the power consumption cost of the thermal power generating unit through the carbon quota gap ratio to obtain a unit measuring and calculating model.
10. The system of claim 9, wherein the system is configured to perform a simulated analysis of the impact of carbon trading mechanism on electricity costs: the unit measuring and calculating model comprises the following steps:
C i ＝(α+β)×B e，i ×P c
wherein, C i Adding value for the power consumption cost of the thermal power generating unit, wherein alpha is the quota auction ratio of the unit, beta is the carbon quota gap ratio, and B e，i To supply a reference value of carbon emissions, P c Is the carbon trade price.
CN202211361663.7A 2022-11-02 2022-11-02 Simulation analysis method and system for influence of carbon transaction mechanism on electricity consumption cost Pending CN115601074A (en)

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