CN115576034A - Index method for representing cold tide strength - Google Patents

Index method for representing cold tide strength Download PDF

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CN115576034A
CN115576034A CN202211236397.5A CN202211236397A CN115576034A CN 115576034 A CN115576034 A CN 115576034A CN 202211236397 A CN202211236397 A CN 202211236397A CN 115576034 A CN115576034 A CN 115576034A
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forecast
cold tide
cold
mode
tide
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陈昊
潘晨
王锦杰
李泽宇
刘安宁
蒋耿明
庄潇然
马晨
史潇
张顾
吕润清
程远
严文莲
郭晞
陈小宇
曹璐
李超
王啸华
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Jiang Sushengqixiangtai
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Abstract

The index method for representing the cold tide intensity of the invention firstly provides the CWSI index, and the cold tide intensity is calculated by the original method, so that the intensity index of the cold tide can be quantitatively provided, and the understanding and judgment of the public and the related decision-making departments on the cold tide intensity are facilitated; and the indexes are specific, the information standards are unified, the accuracy of the characterization result is favorably improved, the reference value of the characterization result is favorably improved, and the applicability is good.

Description

Index method for representing cold tide strength
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of characterization of cold tide strength, in particular to an index method for characterizing the cold tide strength.
Background
Cold tides are one of the important disastrous weathers affecting Jiangsu province in winter for half a year. In addition to severe cooling, severe disastrous weather such as frost, strong wind, snowfall, freezing rain and the like often causes freezing damage, and causes great loss to industrial and agricultural production and people's life.
At present, the cold tide index of the cold tide is measured on the scale of the climate, but the index is suitable for a numerical climate mode, so that the index has no guiding significance on the conventional weather forecast, and other characteristic indexes for representing the intensity of the cold tide are not shown; in the existing national standard, the cold tide intensity is divided into three grades: cold tides, strong cold tides, super strong cold tides;
wherein, the grade of the cold tide is defined as that cold air moves when the temperature reduction amplitude of the lowest temperature of a certain place in 24 hours is more than or equal to 8 ℃, or the temperature reduction amplitude of the certain place in 48 hours is more than or equal to 10 ℃, or the temperature reduction amplitude of the certain place in 72 hours is more than or equal to 12 ℃ and the lowest temperature of the certain place in the day is less than or equal to 4 ℃; the grade of ' strong cold tide ' is defined as ' enabling the temperature reduction amplitude of the lowest temperature of a certain place in 24 hours to be more than or equal to 10 ℃, or the temperature reduction amplitude of the certain place in 48 hours to be more than or equal to 12 ℃, or the temperature reduction amplitude of the certain place in 72 hours to be more than or equal to 14 ℃, and enabling cold air to move at the lowest temperature of the certain place in 2 ℃; the grade of ' super cold tide ' is defined as ' cold air activity which makes the amplitude of the daily lowest air temperature of a certain place be more than or equal to 12 ℃ within 24 hours, or the amplitude of the daily lowest air temperature of the certain place be more than or equal to 14 ℃ within 48 hours, or the amplitude of the daily lowest air temperature of the certain place be more than or equal to 16 ℃ within 72 hours and makes the daily lowest air temperature of the certain place be less than or equal to 0 ℃.
The existing national standard only carries out general judgment, can not accurately reflect the cooling condition, and can not obtain the intensity of the cold tide in two regions by comparison; similar problems exist in the name, icon and standard of the cold tide disaster early warning signal issued on the official website of the China weather service bureau; among the published literature, data using predominantly climatic patterns define the cold tide index: the definition of the maximum time that the daily minimum temperature is less than the reference average value by more than 5 degrees and is more than 5 continuous days can only represent the duration time of the cold tide, but does not represent the cooling intensity of the cold tide, and can only reflect the duration time of the cold tide compared with the historical period due to the comparison of the daily minimum temperature and the reference average value, and the cooling intensity of the single cold tide cannot be judged.
It can be known that the traditional cold tide index only provides the duration of the cold tide, but does not perform quantitative characterization analysis on the cooling intensity of the cold tide, and cannot quantitatively provide the intensity index of the cold tide, which is inconvenient for the public and relevant decision departments to understand and judge the intensity of the cold tide;
accordingly, those skilled in the art have been devoted to developing an index method for characterizing the intensity of cold tides to address the deficiencies of the prior art described above.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above drawbacks of the prior art, the technical problem to be solved by the present invention is that in the prior art, the traditional cold tide index only provides the duration of the cold tide, but there is no quantitative characterization analysis on the cooling intensity of the cold tide, and the intensity index of the cold tide cannot be quantitatively given, which is inconvenient for the public and the relevant decision-making departments to understand and judge the intensity of the cold tide.
In order to achieve the purpose, the index method for characterizing the cold tide intensity comprises the following steps:
step 1, collecting numerical weather forecast mode data and numerical weather forecast mode data;
step 2, preprocessing numerical weather forecast mode data and numerical weather forecast mode data;
step 3, carrying out mode fusion on the preprocessed numerical weather forecast mode data and the numerical weather forecast mode data to obtain a weather-weather integrated numerical forecast sequence;
step 4, calculating a Cold tide intensity Index CWSI (CWSI, cold Wave Strength Index) through a Cold tide intensity Index calculation formula;
step 5, obtaining a calculation result according to the step 4, and analyzing the cold tide intensity index according to the cold tide early warning standard;
further, in the step 1, the data acquisition includes data acquisition by ordinary personnel and data acquisition by users in a meteorological department;
further, in the step 1, the data acquisition by the ordinary person includes acquiring numerical weather forecast mode data and numerical weather forecast mode data by downloading through an official website or applying for a local meteorological department, and the frequency of acquisition is 1 time a day;
further, in the step 1, the data acquisition of the weather department user includes issuing and obtaining weather mode forecast data and numerical weather forecast mode data through an internal network of the chinese weather bureau, and the obtaining frequency is 1 time a day;
further, in the step 2, the preprocessing of the Forecast data generated by the numerical climate Forecast mode is performed by performing spatial linear interpolation downscaling processing on a gridding minimum temperature Forecast product of a second generation power Extension area Forecast mode DERF (dynamic Extension Regional Forecast Model) issued by the China weather bureau, so as to obtain a DERF gridding minimum temperature Forecast product with a spatial resolution of 10 km. If the index is only calculated for the cold tide of the single-point position, the single-point lowest temperature forecast product corresponding to the longitude and the latitude in the gridding lowest temperature forecast product is extracted; in actual operation practice, other similar products in weather forecast mode can be selected;
further, in the step 2, the preprocessing mode of the Forecast data generated by the numerical weather Forecast mode is to perform spatial linear interpolation downscaling processing on a gridding minimum temperature Forecast product of a Global area integrated assimilation Forecast System mode CMA-GFS (central Global Forecast System) issued by the chinese Meteorological office, so as to obtain a CMA-GFS gridding minimum temperature Forecast product with a spatial resolution of 5 km; in actual operation practice, other similar products in weather forecast mode can be selected;
further, in the step 2, if the index is calculated only for the cold tide of the single point position in the preprocessing, the single point minimum temperature forecast product corresponding to the longitude and latitude in the gridding minimum temperature forecast product is extracted;
further, in the step 3, the mode fusion adopts a time-division series fusion mode, and a fusion minimum temperature forecast product with forecast aging of 30 days is formed by utilizing a preprocessed minimum temperature forecast product with CMA-GFS forecast aging of 1 to 10 days and a preprocessed minimum temperature forecast product with DERF forecast aging of 11 to 30 days;
further, in the step 3, if the mode fusion is only to calculate the index of the cold tide of the single point position, the single point fusion minimum temperature forecast product corresponding to the longitude and latitude in the gridding fusion minimum temperature forecast product is extracted;
further, in the step 4, the cold tide intensity index CWSI is calculated by the formula
Figure BDA0003883089100000031
Wherein, CWSI n The cold tide intensity index of the nth day;
Figure BDA0003883089100000032
the difference between the lowest temperature on the (n-1) th day and the lowest temperature on the following day (the lowest temperature on the nth day);
Figure BDA0003883089100000033
the lowest temperature at the nth day;
further, in the step 4, the
Figure BDA0003883089100000034
Is calculated by the formula
Figure BDA0003883089100000035
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003883089100000036
the difference between the lowest temperature on the (n-1) th day and the lowest temperature on the following day (the lowest temperature on the nth day);
Figure BDA0003883089100000037
the lowest temperature at the nth day;
Figure BDA0003883089100000038
the lowest temperature of the (n-1) th day;
further, in the step 5, the cold tide early warning standard includes a blue cold tide early warning identification threshold;
further, in the step 5, the cold tide blue early warning identification threshold is that the lowest air temperature drop amplitude of two adjacent days is greater than or equal to 8 ℃ or the lowest air temperature drops to 4 ℃;
further, in the step 5, the cold tide early warning standard is that the CWSI value corresponding to the blue early warning identification threshold of the cold tide is 0.8; the CWSI value corresponding to the cold tide yellow early warning identification threshold is 1; the CWSI value corresponding to the cold tide orange early warning identification threshold is 1.5; the CWSI value corresponding to the cold tide red early warning identification threshold is 2;
further, in the step 5, the larger the CWSI value is, the larger the cold tide intensity is;
by adopting the scheme, the index method for representing the cold tide strength disclosed by the invention has the following advantages:
(1) The index method for representing the cold tide intensity of the invention firstly provides a CWSI index, and the cold tide intensity is calculated by an original method, so that the intensity index of the cold tide can be quantitatively provided, the understanding and judgment of the public and related decision departments on the cold tide intensity are facilitated, for example, the national standard cold tide level is reached, but the cooling intensity is still different, the traditional early warning only provides a qualitative conclusion, but the CWSI index can provide a quantitative conclusion;
(2) The index method for representing cold tide strength has specific indexes and unified information standard, is favorable for improving the accuracy of a representation result and the reference value of the representation result, and has good applicability;
in conclusion, the CWSI is provided for the first time, the cold tide intensity is calculated by the original method, the cold tide intensity index can be quantitatively provided, and the understanding and judgment of the public and related decision-making departments on the cold tide intensity are facilitated; and the indexes are specific, the information standards are unified, the accuracy of the characterization result is improved, the reference value of the characterization result is improved, and the applicability is good.
The conception, the specific technical solutions and the technical effects produced by the present invention will be further described with reference to the following detailed description so as to fully understand the objects, the features and the effects of the present invention.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the CWSI index method for characterizing cold tide intensity according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a CWSI chart showing the variation of the cold tide intensity along with the 24-hour minimum air temperature variation value and the minimum air temperature variation value;
Detailed Description
The following describes several preferred embodiments of the present invention to make the technical contents thereof clearer and easier to understand. The invention may be embodied in many different forms of embodiments, which are intended to be illustrative only, and the scope of the invention is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein.
Example 1 characterization and analysis of the cold tide intensity of A, B by index method for characterization of cold tide intensity as shown in figures 1 and 2,
step 1, obtaining a temperature Forecast product of a numerical climate Forecast mode (a second generation power Extension Regional Forecast mode DERF (dynamic extended Regional Forecast for Forecast Model)) of 20 x, year, 9 month and 1 day Forecast in a mode of internal transmission of a meteorological department; obtaining a temperature Forecast product of a numerical weather Forecast mode (China Central office Global Forecast System (CMA-GFS)); wherein the forecast aging of DERF is 9 months 1 day to 9 months 30 days; the forecast aging of CMA-GFS is 9 months and 1 day to 9 months and 10 days, and the space range is selected as an example, the space of 10 degrees multiplied by 10 degrees surrounded by four points of (30 degrees N,115 degrees E), (30 degrees N,125 degrees E), (40 degrees N,115 degrees E) and (40 degrees N,125 degrees E);
the forecasting timeliness of the numerical mode can be adjusted along with the technical development, but the implementation of the method is not influenced; meanwhile, the forecasting mode can be replaced by a DERF mode into other similar weather forecasting modes, and a CMA-GFS mode into other similar weather forecasting modes;
and 2, the current spatial resolution of the DERF is 2.5 degrees multiplied by 2.5 degrees, so that the DERF forecast product is preprocessed in a linear interpolation mode, and the resolution is improved to 0.05 degrees multiplied by 0.05 degrees. The current spatial resolution of the CMA-GFS is 0.1 degrees multiplied by 0.1 degrees, so that a linear interpolation mode is adopted to preprocess a CMA-GFS forecast product and improve the resolution to 0.05 degrees multiplied by 0.05 degrees;
before preprocessing, in a 10-degree and 10-degree area range, the DERF forecast product is a grid forecast product with a 4-degree and 4-degree matrix; after the preprocessing, the prediction product is a gridding prediction product with a 200 x 200 matrix;
after the preprocessing, in the same 10 degrees multiplied by 10 degrees area range, the CMA-GFS forecast product is a grid forecast product with a matrix of 100 multiplied by 100; after the preprocessing, the prediction product is a gridding prediction product with a 200 x 200 matrix;
after preprocessing, the DERF gridding forecast product and the CMA-GFS gridding forecast product have the same matrix size, and two groups of forecast products which are matched in space are formed.
Step 3, fusing the preprocessed numerical weather forecast mode temperature forecast product and the preprocessed numerical weather forecast mode temperature forecast product in a time-division series fusion mode to obtain a weather-weather integrated temperature forecast product sequence with forecast aging for 1-30 days;
step 4, known from the weather-climate integrated numerical prediction sequence in the step 3, after the step 3, the formed weather-climate integrated temperature prediction product sequence is a three-dimensional matrix, and the three dimensions are respectively as follows: longitude, latitude, time, in the example data, the longitude dimension is 200, the latitude dimension is 200, and the time dimension is 30.
In the specific calculation process, 40000 points are respectively calculated for 200 × 200, and the CWSI of each day is calculated one by one. Taking the minimum temperature forecast of the A place and the B place represented by 2 points of the 40000 points on the 3 rd day and the 4 th day as an example, the calculation is carried out.
In the first stage of the 10-day survey, the lowest temperature on day 4
Figure BDA0003883089100000051
Is the following: 4 ℃; b, the following steps: 5 ℃; lowest temperature at day 3
Figure BDA0003883089100000052
Is the following: 12 ℃; b, the following steps: 20 ℃;
in the 10-day survey of the second stage, the minimum temperature on day 8
Figure BDA0003883089100000053
Is as follows: 3 ℃ of water; b, the following steps: -3 ℃ of; lowest temperature at day 7
Figure BDA0003883089100000054
Is the following: 11 ℃; b, the following steps: 4 ℃;
calculating a Cold tide intensity Index CWSI (CWSI, cold Wave Strength Index) by using a Cold tide intensity Index calculation formula; the cold tide intensity index CWSI has a calculation formula of
Figure BDA0003883089100000061
Wherein, CWSI n The cold tide intensity index of the nth day;
Figure BDA0003883089100000062
the difference between the lowest temperature on the (n-1) th day and the lowest temperature on the nth day (the lowest temperature on the nth day) on the following day;
Figure BDA0003883089100000063
the lowest temperature at the nth day;
the above-mentioned
Figure BDA0003883089100000064
Is calculated by the formula
Figure BDA0003883089100000065
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003883089100000066
the difference between the lowest temperature on the (n-1) th day and the lowest temperature on the following day (the lowest temperature on the nth day);
Figure BDA0003883089100000067
the lowest temperature at the nth day;
Figure BDA0003883089100000068
the lowest temperature of the (n-1) th day;
it is possible to obtain,
in the first phase of the 10-day survey,
a ground
Figure BDA0003883089100000069
B ground
Figure BDA00038830891000000610
A ground CWSI n =0.8; b site CWSI n ＝1.39；
In a 10-day survey of the second phase,
a ground
Figure BDA00038830891000000611
B ground
Figure BDA00038830891000000612
CWSI of A place n =0.97; b site CWSI n ＝1.06；
In the first stage and the second stage of investigation, the place A reaches the level of issuing the blue early warning signal of the cold tide, the place B can not reach the requirement of issuing the blue early warning signal of the cold tide, but the temperature of the place B is reduced to 15 ℃ in 24 hours in the first stage of investigation, and the temperature of the place B is reduced to-3 ℃ in the second stage of investigation, and the two conditions have great influence on life, but can not issue related early warning according to the requirement of the existing cold tide early warning signal. However, from the cold tide intensity index CWSI, the CWSI in the first stage and the second stage B is larger than the place a, and two situations, which show that the first stage is greatly cooled and the second stage is low in lowest temperature, occur in the place B are both reflected by the CWSI, so that the CWSI provided by the invention can effectively make up for the defects existing in the existing early warning signal standard;
step 5, analyzing the cold tide intensity index according to the cold tide early warning standard; the cold tide early warning standard is that when CWSI is less than or equal to 1 and 0.8 in 24 hours, blue early warning is carried out corresponding to the cold tide; when CWSI is not less than 1 and less than 1.5, early warning corresponding to cold tide yellow; when CWSI is not less than 1.5 and CWSI is less than 2, corresponding to cold tide orange early warning; when CWSI is more than or equal to 2, early warning corresponding to cold tide red;
the result of the calculation is obtained according to step 4,
in the first phase of the 10-day survey,
a ground
Figure BDA0003883089100000071
B ground
Figure BDA0003883089100000072
CWSI of A place n =0.8; b site CWSI n ＝1.39；
Blue early warning corresponding to the area A cold tide; b, early warning the cold tide yellow in the field;
in a 10-day survey of the second phase,
in a 10-day survey of the second phase,
a ground
Figure BDA0003883089100000073
B ground
Figure BDA0003883089100000074
A ground CWSI n =0.97; b site CWSI n ＝1.06；
Blue early warning corresponding to the area A cold tide; b, early warning the cold tide yellow in the field;
the method for indicating the cold tide intensity index of the embodiment 1 of the invention obtains a quantitative cold tide intensity index and correspondingly gives an early warning; the result is simple and intuitive, and the understanding and judgment of the cold tide intensity by the public and related decision-making departments are facilitated;
comparative example 2, characterization and analysis of A, B two-region cold tide strength by the existing national standard
The investigation period of the comparative example 2 is the same as that of the example 1;
step 1, obtaining temperature data of A, B in 10 days in two places and sorting out temperature reduction amplitude and lowest temperature data of A, B in two places;
in the 10-day survey of the first stage, the temperature reduction ranges of A, B are respectively 8 ℃ and 15 ℃ at the lowest daily temperature of 24 hours, and the lowest daily temperatures are respectively 4 ℃ and 5 ℃;
in the 10-day survey of the second stage, the temperature reduction ranges of A, B are respectively 8 ℃ and 7 ℃ at the lowest daily temperature of 24 hours, and the lowest daily temperatures are respectively 3 ℃ and-3 ℃;
step 2, judging whether A, B are cold tides or not according to the cold tide definition;
the cold tide is divided into cold tide, strong cold tide and super-strong cold tide;
the cold tide is that the temperature reduction amplitude of the daily lowest temperature of a certain place is more than or equal to 8 ℃ within 24 hours, or the temperature reduction amplitude of the certain place is more than or equal to 10 ℃ within 48 hours, or the temperature reduction amplitude of the certain place is more than or equal to 12 ℃ within 72 hours, and cold air with the daily lowest temperature of the certain place less than or equal to 4 ℃ moves;
the temperature reduction amplitude of the cold tide is more than or equal to 10 ℃ within 24 hours at the lowest daily temperature of a certain place, or more than or equal to 12 ℃ within 48 hours, or more than or equal to 14 ℃ within 72 hours, and cold air at the lowest daily temperature of the place is enabled to move;
the super-strong cold tide is cold air activity which enables the daily minimum air temperature of a certain place to be more than or equal to 12 ℃ within 24 hours, or the amplitude to be more than or equal to 14 ℃ within 48 hours, or the amplitude to be more than or equal to 16 ℃ within 72 hours, and enables the daily minimum air temperature of the certain place to be less than or equal to 0 ℃.
Result data:
in the first stage of investigation on day 10, place A is cold tide, and place B is not cold tide;
in the 10 th survey of the second stage, the place A is the cold tide, and the place B is not the cold tide;
comparative example 3, the cold tide intensity of A, B in two regions is characterized and analyzed by the name, the icon and the standard of the cold tide disaster early warning signal released on the official website of the China weather agency
The investigation period of the comparative example 3 is the same as that of the example 1;
step 1, acquiring 10-day climate mode data of A, B two places, and integrating to obtain the daily lowest air temperature and the reference average value of A, B two places;
in the 10-day survey of the first stage, the minimum temperature of two days of 5 consecutive days A, B is 4 ℃ and 5 ℃ respectively; the reference average values are 8 ℃ and 9 ℃ respectively;
in the 10-day survey of the first stage, the minimum temperature of the two days of continuous 6 days A, B is 4 ℃ and 3 ℃ respectively; the reference average values are 11 ℃ and 9 ℃ respectively;
step 2, performing A, B two-region cold tide characterization analysis according to the cold tide index definition;
the cold tide index is the longest time that the daily lowest temperature is less than the reference average value by more than 5 ℃ and is more than 5 days continuously;
result data:
in the first stage of 10 days of investigation, place A is not cold tide, and place B is not cold tide;
in the 10 th survey of the second stage, the place A is the cold tide, and the place B is the cold tide;
the result obtained in the comparative example 3 shows that the result can only represent the duration of the cold tide, but does not represent the cooling intensity of the cold tide, and can only reflect the duration of the cold tide in the same period compared with the history due to the definition of the result as the comparison with the reference average value, and the cooling intensity of the single cold tide cannot be judged;
test example 4, comparative example 1, comparative example 2 and comparative example 3
In embodiment 1, the index of the intensity of the cold tide, which is quantitatively given, can be obtained according to the index method for characterizing the intensity of the cold tide disclosed by the invention, and multicolor early warning is performed according to the intensity index;
in comparative example 2, when the temperature drop ranges of A, B are 8 ℃ and 15 ℃ at the lowest daily temperatures of A, B for 24 hours and 4 ℃ and 5 ℃ at the lowest daily temperatures of A, B, respectively, a place is a cold tide and a place B is not a cold tide, which can be obtained from the existing national standard, and the place a has a cold tide and the place B does not have a cold tide. However, in practical situations, the temperature reduction range of the place B is very large, the lowest air temperature is only slightly higher than the place B by 1 ℃, and the existing national standard cannot reflect the cold degree condition of the place B;
when the 24-hour cooling amplitude of the lowest temperature of the place A in the first stage and the second stage of investigation is respectively 8 ℃ and 9 ℃, and the lowest temperature of the place A in the day is respectively 4 ℃ and 3 ℃, the place A is a cold tide, and the place B is also a cold tide; the grade of the cold tide of the A place is the same as that of the B place, and the grades are the grade of the cold tide; however, in practical situations, the minimum air temperature drop of the second stage A is greater than that of the first stage survey, the minimum air temperature is lower than that of the first stage survey, the cold tide of the A place in the second stage survey is stronger than that of the first stage survey, and the existing national standard cannot reflect the information that the intensity of the cold tide of the A place in the second stage survey is stronger than that of the cold tide of the A place in the first stage survey;
in comparative example 3, the obtained result is the same as that in comparative example 2, only the duration of the cold tide can be represented, but the cooling intensity of the cold tide is not represented, and the comparison between the obtained result and the reference average value only can reflect the duration of the cold tide in the same period compared with the history, and the cooling intensity of the single cold tide cannot be judged;
in summary, the CWSI index is proposed for the first time, and the intensity of the cold tide is calculated by the original method, so that the intensity index of the cold tide can be quantitatively given, and the public and the relevant decision-making departments can understand and judge the intensity of the cold tide conveniently; and the indexes are specific, the information standards are unified, the accuracy of the characterization result is favorably improved, the reference value of the characterization result is favorably improved, and the applicability is good.
The foregoing detailed description of the preferred embodiments of the invention has been presented. It should be understood that numerous modifications and variations could be devised by those skilled in the art in light of the present teachings without departing from the inventive concepts. Therefore, the technical solutions that can be obtained by a person skilled in the art through logical analysis, reasoning or limited experiments based on the prior art according to the concepts of the present invention should be within the scope of protection determined by the claims.

Claims (7)

1. An index method for characterizing cold tide intensity is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1, collecting numerical weather forecast mode data and numerical weather forecast mode data;
step 2, preprocessing numerical weather forecast mode data and numerical weather forecast mode data;
step 3, carrying out mode fusion on the preprocessed numerical weather forecast mode data and the numerical weather forecast mode data to obtain a weather-weather integrated numerical forecast sequence;
step 4, calculating a Cold tide intensity Index CWSI (CWSI, cold Wave Strength Index) through a Cold tide intensity Index calculation formula;
and 5, obtaining a calculation result according to the step 4, and analyzing the cold tide intensity index according to the cold tide early warning standard.
2. The comprehensive evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 1,
the data acquisition comprises the data acquisition of ordinary personnel and the data acquisition of users of a meteorological department;
the data acquisition of the ordinary personnel comprises the steps of acquiring numerical weather forecast mode data and numerical weather forecast mode data in a mode of downloading through an official website or applying to a local meteorological department and the like, wherein the acquisition frequency is 1 time a day;
the data acquisition of the users of the meteorological department comprises the step of issuing and acquiring climate mode forecast data and numerical weather forecast mode data through an internal network of the China meteorological office, wherein the acquisition frequency is 1 time a day.
3. The comprehensive evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 2,
the preprocessing mode of the Forecast data generated by the numerical climate Forecast mode is that a spatial linear interpolation downscaling processing is carried out on a gridding minimum temperature Forecast product of a second generation power Extension period area Forecast mode DERF (dynamic Extension Regional Forecast Model) issued by the China weather bureau, and the DERF gridding minimum temperature Forecast product with 10km spatial resolution is obtained. If the index is only calculated for the cold tide of the single-point position, the single-point lowest temperature forecast product corresponding to the longitude and the latitude in the gridding lowest temperature forecast product is extracted; in actual operation practice, other similar products in a climate forecasting mode can be selected;
the method for preprocessing the forecast data generated by the numerical weather forecast mode is to adopt a gridding minimum temperature forecast product of a global area integrated assimilation forecast System mode CMA-GFS (China Meteorological Administration-Global Forecast System) issued by the China weather bureau to perform space linear interpolation downscaling processing to obtain a CMA-GFS gridding minimum temperature forecast product with 5km spatial resolution; in actual operation practice, other similar products in weather forecast mode can be selected;
if the index is calculated only for the cold tide of the single-point position in the preprocessing, the single-point lowest temperature forecast product corresponding to the longitude and the latitude in the gridding lowest temperature forecast product is extracted.
4. The comprehensive evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 3,
the mode fusion adopts a time-division series fusion mode, and utilizes a preprocessed lowest temperature forecast product with CMA-GFS forecast aging of 1 st to 10 th days and a preprocessed lowest temperature forecast product with DERF forecast aging of 11 th to 30 th days to form a fusion lowest temperature forecast product with forecast aging of 30 days;
and if the mode fusion is only used for calculating the index of the cold tide of the single-point position, extracting the single-point fusion minimum temperature forecast product corresponding to the longitude and the latitude from the gridding fusion minimum temperature forecast product.
5. The comprehensive evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 4,
the cold tide intensity index CWSI has a calculation formula of
Figure FDA0003883089090000021
Wherein, CWSI n Is the cold tide intensity index of the nth day;
Figure FDA0003883089090000022
the difference between the lowest temperature on the (n-1) th day and the lowest temperature on the following day (the lowest temperature on the nth day);
Figure FDA0003883089090000023
the lowest temperature on the nth day.
6. The comprehensive evaluation method according to claim 5, wherein in the step 4,
the above-mentioned
Figure FDA0003883089090000024
Is calculated by the formula
Figure FDA0003883089090000025
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0003883089090000026
the difference between the lowest temperature on the (n-1) th day and the lowest temperature on the following day (the lowest temperature on the nth day);
Figure FDA0003883089090000027
the lowest temperature at the nth day;
Figure FDA0003883089090000028
the lowest temperature on the (n-1) th day.
7. The comprehensive evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 5,
the cold tide early warning standard comprises a blue cold tide early warning identification threshold;
the cold tide blue early warning identification threshold value is that the lowest air temperature reduction amplitude of two adjacent days is more than or equal to 8 ℃ or the lowest air temperature is reduced to 4 ℃;
the cold tide early warning standard is that the CWSI value corresponding to the blue early warning identification threshold value of the cold tide is 0.8; the CWSI value corresponding to the cold tide yellow early warning identification threshold is 1; the CWSI value corresponding to the cold tide orange early warning identification threshold is 1.5; the CWSI value corresponding to the cold tide red early warning identification threshold is 2;
the larger the CWSI value is, the larger the cold tide intensity is.
CN202211236397.5A 2022-10-10 2022-10-10 Index method for representing cold tide strength Pending CN115576034A (en)

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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN117631090A (en) * 2024-01-25 2024-03-01 南京信息工程大学 Cold tide identification method and device

Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN117631090A (en) * 2024-01-25 2024-03-01 南京信息工程大学 Cold tide identification method and device
CN117631090B (en) * 2024-01-25 2024-05-14 南京信息工程大学 Cold tide identification method and device

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